Short Attention Span Musing - Popcorn Edition

...Kari Lake is looking to make nice with the same people that she trashed in 2022

From Politico -

Kari Lake ‘drove a stake’ through the heart of McCain Republicans. Now she wants a meeting.

Kari Lake is finally ready to move on from the 2022 election — or at least she wants her rivals to.

The Arizona Republican has given up — for now — the fire-and-brimstone approach she took in her failed gubernatorial bid last year, adopting a different tack in her current Senate campaign: diplomacy.

One thing in the article caught my attention (emphasis added by me) -

She has not made contact with former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, according to a person familiar with their interactions. And Sharon Harper, a consigliere for Cindy McCain, the widow of the late senator, said Lake has not reached out to her. Harper is fundraising for Sinema.

My guess is that many of the "traditional" Rs want to vote for Kyrsten Sinema, if she runs for re-election.  If she doesn't, those folks will be faced with two options that they won't like - voting for Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, or voting for Kari Lake, someone who openly despises them.

If Gallego can siphon off enough supporters, it may help him.

...If Lake wins election to the US Senate, she may be moving to a schoolyard...at a middle school. 

From The Oklahoman -

OK Sen. Markwayne Mullin defends Senate fight, tells Sean Hannity it's 'Oklahoma values'

U.S. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Oklahoma, said he believed Oklahomans "would be pretty upset" at him if he hadn't threatened a union leader to a fight during a senate hearing,

Mullin, 45, and Teamsters leader Sean O'Brien had a heated exchange during a senate hearing on labor unions, at the end of which Mullin asked O'Brien if he wanted to fight. Mullin even stood from his chair, but was stopped by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, who was chairing the hearing.

...In what may be the news of the week, a convicted felon is joining the clown car of the race to replace the outgoing Debbie Lesko in CD8.

From NBC -

'QAnon Shaman' who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 files paperwork to run for Congress

Jacob Chansley, the Arizona man who gained notoriety as the “QAnon Shaman” who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, filed paperwork to run for Congress as a Libertarian candidate in the battleground state’s 8th Congressional District.

Rep. Debbie Lesko, R-Ariz., announced last month that she won’t seek re-election.

Chansley cannot vote for a candidate for elected office as a convicted felon, but he *can* run for office.

One question: will he be in costume while on the campaign trail?  I'm guessing "Yes."

From the NBC story -

.

While he has yet to form an FEC committee for the run, at least not one that I can find, he has filed a statement of interest with the Arizona Secretary of State

That statement, emphasis added by me -

 

Blake Masters may be the very definition of carpetbagger

He's running for CD8, which is in northwest Maricopa County, but not only does he live in Tucson, his FEC committee for this run is based in Virginia -

His committee number is C00854786.

So far as I know (I'm not a lawyer), this is all legal. 

But I expect that it will be used against by the other candidates in his primary.

Voter Suppression 101 tactics in CD8 Special Election

It looks as if the Kelly campaign's guiding philosophy is "if at first you don't succeed, cheat."

One of the oldest gambits in electoral politics is to try to suppress the turnout of the opposition's base by telling them to show up to vote on a day after the scheduled election day or to misdirect them to the wrong polling place.  Either way, the lie is usually delivered in the guise of "helping" voters.

It looks like the Rs in the Tucson area are going with misdirection.

A Facebook friend from the Tucson area posted this earlier this evening -

A reminder was left at my door informing me of my polling location for Tuesday's Special Election. The problem is that the information was wrong! Fortunately, I got a call from one of Ron's volunteers reminding me to vote. If he hadn't told me my correct voting place, I wouldn't have known there was a problem until Tuesday! Please contact Ron's Tucson office at 520-207-0937 if you have questions about your polling place. Or call the Pima County Recorder at 520-740-4330.

The list of polling places in Pima County is here; if you don't know your precinct, the Pima County Recorder's precinct locator page is here.

The list of polling places in Santa Cruz County is here.

The list of polling places in Cochise County is here.

Ugh.

Chalk one up for the politics of demonization.  A big one...

Last night was definitely ugly.

Many good people, and at least one great one, lost their jobs last night.

The results page on the AZ Secretary of State's website is here.

First, the genuinely ugly - Harry Mitchell, the icon of public service, lost the CD5 race to real estate vulture David Schweikert.  Apparently, the majority of voters in CD5 have decided that they don't want a public servant to represent them in Congress, instead giving their nod to a public predator (geez, can ya tell I'm still pissed over this one? ).

The entire Schweikert campaign platform can be summed up thusly:  Obamacare!

Seriously, that was it. 

I was on sign detail for one of the down ballot candidates here, and every polling place had at least 5 - 8 little signs that had one word on them - "Obamacare."  Sometimes they were placed at random, sometimes they were placed next to Mitchell signs, and at least once, place *in* a Mitchell sign.

More on this race in the next few days, after I decompress.

...There was lots of bad (some really bad) on Tuesday.

- The Rs swept the statewide races.  Some of the D losses were expected, but to elect two people who have long records of being crooks to positions of great public trust like Attorney General and Treasurer?

As noted above, last night was a triumph of the politics of demonization, but "willful ignorance" also ran wild in Arizona on Tuesday.

- The Rs also increased their majority in the legislature, mostly by knocking off a number of Democratic women.

Former State Representative Jackie Thrasher (LD10) lost her bid to return to the House, down by almost 3000 votes.

State Representative Rae Waters (LD20) is down 1400 votes in her reelection bid.

State Senator Rebecca Rios (LD23)  is down almost 5000 votes her race.

State Representative Barbara McGuire (LD23) is down almost 7000 votes.

State Senator Amanda Aguirre (LD24) is down more than 3000 votes in her race.

State Representative Pat Fleming (LD25) is down more than 3000 votes.

State Representative Nancy Young Wright (LD26) is down slightly less than 900 votes in her race.

In keeping with the Rs' anti-woman theme, Dirty Scottsdale writer and "chip off the ol' potatoe" Ben Quayle won the CD3 seat being vacated by John Shadegg.  His opponent ran as a Republican dressed up in a Democrat's clothing.  Turns out that didn't inspire the D base to turn out.  Who knew?

The politics of demonization was effective on a number of ballot propositions, too.

Prop 106 (anti-healthcare reform), Prop 107 (anti-affirmative action), and Prop 113 (anti-union) were all approved by the voters.

...There were a few nuggets of good in yesterday's carnage.  OK, less "good" than "not horrificly bad" -

 - Prop 301 (ending and sweeping the monies from the Land Conservation Fund) and Prop 302 (ending First Things First, the early childhood education program that was created by the voters in a previous election) have been turned away by the voters.  The Rs in the lege will use this as a rationalization to further gut education and social infrastructure programs in the name of "balancing the budget," but they were going to that anyway.  They just would have found a different excuse if the Props had passed.

- In out-of-state results that may have a direct impact on Arizona, Kris Kobach, the nativist lawyer who wrote SB1070 for fellow traveller Russell Pearce, won his election as Secretary of State in Kansas.  He'll be overseeing elections there.  He ran on a anti-immigrant platform, and has pledged to work to minimize the number of immigrants voting there.  God help Kansas.  On the plus side, we can always hope that his duties/schemes in KS serve to distract him from Arizona.

- Also turned away were R challenges to U.S. Reps. Gabrielle Giffords (CD8) and Raul Grijalva (CD7) (however, CD8 remains close, so there is a chance that one will change, though Giffords is ahead by approximately 2000 votes as of this writing.)

- In my home LD, District 17, State Rep. David Schapira has fended off what had appeared to be a strong challenger for the LD17 Senate seat.  Wendy Rogers was touted as the kind of conservative who could win in a Democratic-leaning swing district.  Turns out she was actually just a polished version of her ticketmate, Don Hawker.  House candidate Hawker was the epitome of the "single issue" candidate, literally blaming all that ails Arizona (and the country) on abortion.

Both were wrong for the community, wrong for the district, and wrong for the state, and voters in D17 saw that.  One of the advantages of living in a district with a lot of university professors and students in it.

- In some of the down ballot races, there was some good news -

Retiring State Senator Meg Burton Cahill defeated a retired barber for the Justice of the Peace spot in the University Lakes Justice Precinct.  Some ugly robocalls funded by the Arizona Multihousing Association failed to defeat the popular Tempean.

Dana Saar of Fountain Hills defeated embarrassment Jerry Walker of Mesa for Walker's seat on the Governing Board of the Maricopa County Community College District.  Walker has shamed his constituents and the District a number of times with his thuggish behavior.  Saar taking the seat will help restore the credibility of this embattled board.


...The one spark of hope, in Arizona and across the nation, that I can find from yesterday's results (and I had to dig deep to find this one) -

In 1994, that national R wave occurred two years *after* redistricting took place.  

In 2010, the wave took place two years *before* redistricting.  The Rs, especially the tea baggers, won't have time to entrench themselves before having to run in radically different districts in 2012.

More later, on CD5 and some of the local races and ballot questions...

About the recent CD5 poll numbers (and CD1 and CD8)

Serving to fill in the deafening silence from the RW blogs (zero posts and counting so far) regarding Jan Brewer's performance has been the recently released poll numbers purporting to show that the R candidates in CDs 1, 5, and 8 are head of or tied with the Democratic incumbents in those districts.

What the R blogs haven't mentioned in their crowing about the poll are the partisan biases of the groups behind the poll.

The poll was commissioned by a 501c(4) group called the American Action Network (AAN).  It's part of an organization of different groups created to serve as a Republican advocacy effort "independent" of the Republican Party in its quest to regain control of the federal government.

Among those involved with AAN -

Rob Collins, president of AAN, and former chief of staff to Eric Cantor, Minority Whip in the U.S. House of Representatives

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum (one of the related groups mentioned above) was a senior adviser to John McCain during his unsuccessful 2008 presidential campaign

Norm Coleman, CEO of AAN, a Republican former U.S. Senator (lost to Al Franken.  YES!)

Fred Malek, an AAN board member, was a Nixon administration operative who has become a big fundraiser for the Republican party (and John McCain)

Haley Barbour, an AAN board member, is the Republican Governor of Mississippi and head of the Republican Governors Association

The polling was conducted  by the firm Ayers McHenry, a company that openly, even proudly, proclaims that it is partisan and supportive of Republican candidates and causes.  Not that reading their website's list of clients isn't a dead giveaway.

The polling data has been released through AAN's affiliate group, American Action Forum (AAF).

I'm not qualified to discuss the technical aspects of the way that the poll was conducted, but there seem to be issues with the methodology of the poll - a small sample size, a universe that seems to be skewed toward self-identified conservatives out of proportion to their presence in the population as a whole, and questions, that if not quite of "push poll" quality, definitely look to be designed to elicit certain desired responses.

All of which serve to undermine the credibility of the results, making it seem likely that the "poll" is less "scientific research" and more "messaging research" or even "wishful thinking."

At best, this should be considered to be a third party-funded "internal poll."  As the Parraz campaign (and I) learned in the just-completed primary cycle, internal polls have a tendency to match the spin that is placed on them and not to reflect real sentiment.

To be sure, the Democrats in question - Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1), Gabrielle Giffords (CD8), and Harry Mitchell (CD5) - have tough races ahead of them.

Giffords and Mitchell both face significant Republican registration advantages in their districts (~18K in CD8, ~ 40K in CD5).  Kirkpatrick has a Democratic advantage (~ 20K) to work with in CD1, but her district is heavily rural and as recently as 2006 elected a [corrupt] Republican (Rick Renzi).  It's a district that has been able to elect conservative Democrat Jack Brown and (relatively) moderate Republican Bill Konopnicki to the Arizona House of Representatives (LD5, each).

In short, all three knew early on, even before their first races for the seats in Congress that they now occupy, that they would *never* have easy paths to reelection, and have been running intelligent, energetic campaigns ever since.

Caveat:  I have volunteered for the Mitchell campaign in the recent past, and will again in the near future.

When more reputable and independent polling organizations, such as Gallup or Behavior Research Center (aka - Rocky Mountain Polls), weigh in on AZ's congressional races, those results will have much more credibility than a glorified internal poll.

Primary Day is here: prediction time

Greg at Espresso Pundit went all in with his predictions, and Donna at Democratic Diva steadfastly and with dignity declined to make any predictions to avoid undermining/offending the ultimate winners in the Democratic primaries.

While I am not the "pundit" that Patterson is, neither am I as dignified as Donna (hey, I'm a Red Sox fan, and *you* try shouting "Yankees Suck!!" while maintaining proper decorum :) ).  As such, I'm going to make my own predictions.

Disclaimer:  My predictions are not an indication of a preference in Democratic primary races; in fact, I'll be predicting a winner who is other than the candidate I voted for in a couple of the races.  In addition, my predictions in Republican races are based on very distant observations, not on any knowledge of how R primary voters think.

In other words, no wagering allowed on any of this.  :)


On to the fearless predictions...

R Senate - McCain over Hayworth easily.  It may not be the blowout that it should be, but it won't be that close.

D Senate - This one is tough.  I'll go with Parraz over Glassman in a very close race.  The info about Glassman's campaign, however, may have come out too late to affect the outcome since early ballots were sent out, and returned, weeks before the info came to light.

R CD5 - Schweikert.  Far from a perfect candidate but he's run a solid primary campaign.  I think the big question is if Ward will hold on to second.  Look for Bitter Smith or Salvino to possibly sneak into the silver medal position.

R Maricopa County Attorney - Should be Romley in a cakewalk, but if Patterson is correct about this being a low turnout election (and I think he is), Montgomery could make it interesting.

R CD3 - Got no clue, other than it won't be Quayle.  Even R primary voters want more substance in a candidate.

R AG - Horne in a close one.  Thomas is just too damaged by his professional and ethical missteps.

D AG - Just a "feeling", but Rotellini seems to have the support of most of the Ds that I know.  Having said that, any of the three Ds running (Rotellini, Lujan, Rabago) would make a better AG than either Horne or Thomas.  (Of course, so would I, and my legal experience consists of serving as a juror in a Scottsdale shoplifting case...but I digress.  :) )

R Superintendent of Public Instruction - Huppenthal.  In any other state he'd have been relegated to the political scrap heap years ago, but in AZ, he's a Republican hero.  With the name recognition to go with it among R primary voters.

D Superintendent of Public Instruction - No clue, not even a "feeling".  Both Kotterman and Williams are dedicated educators and well-qualified for the position.  I just have no idea who is going to win the D nod.

D Secretary of State - Wercinski, though with Deschene's outside-of-Maricopa County contacts, he could make this one a barn burner.

R CD1, CD8, Treasurer - Don't know, don't care.  Kirkpatrick, Giffords, and Cherny will be the best choices in November, no matter who the Rs nominate in August.

R Governor (just for kicks) - Brewer.  Includimg me, there are maybe 10 people in AZ who realize that Jette is an intelligent, thoughtful candidate.  Everybody else's loss.  I wouldn't vote for him, but AZ needs more candidates like him who are less chained to an absolutist ideology and more concerned with finding real-world solutions to real-world problems.

CQPolitics has coverage here; FiveThirtyEight.com coverage here.

FEC Reports - Congressional primary races

Some of these are eye-opening...

All info courtesy the website of the Federal Election Commission, reporting period 7/1/2010 thru 8/4/2010 (three weeks before the primary)...

In order of interest to me (call it "blogger's privilege" or something :) ) -

CD5

Schweikert: $225529.45 cash on hand, raised slightly less than $36K during the period, spent over $244K.  Debt of $500K (to himself).

Ward: $172944.21 on hand, raised $28657, spent $264K, $315548.83 in debt.

Bitter Smith: $48454.60 on hand, raised less than $20K, spent slightly less than $83K, $81329.02 debt.

Salvino: $27.6K on hand, raised less than $10K, spent more than $91K, debt of $210958.04.

Spinks: $41.82 cash on hand (not "41.82K" but forty-one dollars and eighty-two cents), raised $170, spent $557, no debt.

Gentry:  I couldn't find a report for the most recent reporting period.

Analysis*: It isn't over per se, but Salvino, Spinks and Gentry are toast, and Bitter Smith is on life support.  Ward has a shot, but Schweikert seems to think he has it wrapped up, and is coasting a little, ticking off supporters of some of the other candidates.

These folks seem to be Republican B-teamers - perennial wannabes looking for one last shot at glory or carpetbaggers looking for a district where they can buy a nomination.  Not talking smack here, one of these folks could move up to A-team status (Bitter Smith and Schweikert have held offices before, and Ward has access to cash), but they've got it to prove.


CD3

Crump: Less than $7300 on hand, raised $11456, spent slightly over $17K.  No debt.

Gorman: Less than $26K on hand, raised $14K, spent $5371.  No debt.

Morris: Slightly more than $40K on hand, raised $16K, spent $74K, $50K debt.

Moak: $121K on hand, raised a little more than $15K, spent more than $577K.  Debt of more than $592K ($300K in this period alone).

Parker: $63K on hand, raised $36K, spent $123K, debt of $26431.60.

Quayle: $429K on hand, raised $218K, spent $473K, $1223 debt.

Waring: $29.5K on hand, raised $17K, spent $81K, debt of $41K.

Winkler: $24.5K on hand, raised $5225, spent $8253, no debt.

I cannot find reports for the other candidates (Branch, Hull).

Analysis*: Based on the money numbers, the race is between Quayle (tapping Daddy's friends for cash) and Moak (placing a big bet on his own candidacy), but Parker, Waring, Gorman, and Morris still have a heartbeat.  In a free-for-all like this one, money for mailers and ad buys may not mean as much as an effective street-level GOTV machine.  Crump, Winkler, Branch, and Hull are done.  Quayle should be just as done after his recent gaffes, but Daddy's money and name may purchase some short memories among GOP primary voters.

Probably the strongest set of candidates that the GOP has fielded this year (3 former legislators, 2 former mayors, 1 son of a former USVP, a well-funded businessman, and Morris, who is moderate, female, intelligent, articulate, attractive, Jewish, and Cuban.  In Florida, they'd have already cancelled the election and administered the oath of office to her, but in AZ she'll be lucky to break out of single digits), but they are slicing each other to ribbons and whittling down the funds that donors will have available in the general election.  Look for lots of independent expenditures from GOP-friendly groups as they try to retain this seat in the general.


CD8

Paton: almost $187K on hand, raised $46K, spent $146K, debt of slightly less than $13K.

Kelly: almost $79K on hand, raised $78K, spent $159K, no debt.

The other candidates have dropped out or haven't filed reports that I can find.

Analysis*:  This race could be the one to watch - Paton is the candidate of the GOP "establishment" and may be the better general election candidate, but Kelly has enough Tea Party support to pull the upset, and enough cash to make a last minute push.


CD7

McClung: $15K on hand, raised slightly less than $11K, spent slightly less than $18K, debt of $2300.

Myers: more than $23K on hand, raised $1820, spent $56K, debt of more than $95K.

I couldn't find reports for the other candidates. 

Analysis*: The top GOP candidates to unseat Raul Grijalva raised less than $13K between them.  Candidates who are toast in other districts were able to raise more.  Any other questions? 


CD1

Bowers: A little more than $10K on hand, raised $11K, spent a little less than $15K, no debt.

Gosar: Nearly $41K on hand, raised slightly less than $40K, spent $130K, no debt.

Hay: More than $116K on hand, raised $32K, spent $60K, debt of $100K.

Jensen: Reporting $1195 cash on hand on the summary page, but also reports $1595 raised and $1595 spent.  Hand-written reports, wife or other relative as treasurer.  'Nuff said.

Mehta: Less than $2600 on hand, raised $7300, spent $25K, debt of slight less than $11K.

I could not locate reports for the other candidates.

Analysis*: Hay's got the cash, Gosar seems to have the momentum.  Hay may be holding on to the cash to pay down her debt after the primary.  If the CD5 Rs are B-teamers, these folks are C- and D- teamers.


CD4

Contreras: $2500 on hand, raised $6800, spent $4300, $25K in debt.

Penalosa hasn't filed a report that I could find, but his July report showed numbers in line with Contreras'.

Analysis*: Either one could win the R nomination, though considering that incumbent Ed Pastor has $1.5 million on hand, I'm not sure that qualifies as a good thing for whichever one wins the nod. 


CD2

Black reports $69 (not $69000 or even $6900, but *$69.00* cash on hand in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Franks (cash on hand of $69K).


CD6

Smith reports cash on hand of $5593 in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Flake (almost $800K on hand).

Analysis*: Both Franks and Flake face primary challenges from the right, of all places, but other than the hardcore Tea Party types, no one can say (with a straight face, anyway) that Franks and Flake are "too liberal" to be "good" Republicans.  The lack of financial support for the upstarts indicates that both are safe from serious intra-GOP challenges.

Key:  "Analysis*" equals "opportunity to let loose a little snark."

Note: The candidates who didn't file reports that I could locate are all long shots anyway, so I'm not worrying about them.  If one of them pulls out a primary victory, I'll eat my computer**.

** = Not really.  I will admit to making a mistake, however.  Call it "eating crow instead of a computer."

Note2: I didn't really cover the Democratic races because there aren't any primary races for Congressional seats.

Dark Clouds, Silver Linings, and Lessons

The results of Tuesday's elections across the country offer a silver lining of hope in what has long been considered to be a dark year for Democrats. And nowhere is that silver lining brighter than in Arizona.

To whit:

- Dark cloud: Libertarian (dressed in Republican clothing) Rand Paul wins the R nomination for Senate in Kentucky.

- Silver lining: He's already imploding, coming out against the Civil Rights Act...before backing off (sort of). Guess he was against the Act before he was for it.

- Silver lining2 - Paul received 206,960 votes in the R primary; Daniel Mongiardo, the 2nd place Democrat in the D primary, received 225,159. There are almost 600K more Ds than Rs in Kentucky. They are Ds of a conservative bent (hence the two Rs currently representing KY in the U.S. Senate) but they won't put up with the public embarrassment that Paul is threatening to become.

- Lesson: The most "whatever" candidate in a party's primary may not be that party's *best* candidate. Not making a prediction here (yet), but despite the Tea Party's glee over Paul's nomination, winning the nomination isn't the same as winning the office. This race is far from over. The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in KY, Jack Conway, is in a solid position entering the general election campaign.


- (Not so) Dark cloud: Democrat Mark Critz won the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. The win keeps the Ds' perfect record in head-to-head special elections held since the 2008 election intact and allows them to retain the seat held by the late Jack Murtha for the better part of four decades.

- Silver lining: Critz may have shown the way to beat the Rs' standard campaign platform of running against D.C., Nancy Pelosi, and those durn "liberal" Democrats, and it's the most basic lesson in politics - all politics is local. The R in the race, Tim Burns, ran as a generic national Republican/Club for Growth candidate, campaigning against Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Critz stumped the western PA district and talked about jobs.

Critz won.

- Lesson: No matter if the pundits think that the trends in a given election cycle dramatically favor one party over another (as they think that 2010 favors Rs over Ds), any single race is usually won by the candidate who runs the better, more district-focused, campaign.


- Dark cloud: Republicans all over Arizona are grasping for the chance to go Congress.

- Silver lining: Their primaries have become cattle call, "I'm more conservative than thou" slugfests.

- - In the race for U.S. Senate, former radio gabber JD Hayworth is looking to unseat fellow Republican John McCain, pulling the heretofore not-exactly-liberal McCain into Hayworth's (and the Tea Party's) nativist, anti-government ideological territory.

All the while, Democrat Rodney Glassman is turning in his sigs, opening his Phoenix headquarters, and reaching out to *all* Arizona voters, not just the nativists.

- - In CD5, Republican perennial candidates Susan Bitter Smith and David Schweikert have been joined by electoral newcomers Jim Ward and Chris Salvino in their race to unseat Democratic incumbent and local icon Harry Mitchell. The Rs are running anti-immigrant/anti-Obama campaigns (Salvino's signs even start with "Stop Obama", not his name). Mitchell is working for his district, reining in Congressional pay, and protecting America's veterans.

-- In the CD3 battle royal to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg, there are at least a dozen open committees on the Republican side (Moak, Waring, Winkler, and Quayle have already filed their signatures) and they're all running as the "real" conservative in the race. They've been whipsawing between toeing the nativist line and nuzzling the corporate teat.

All the while, Jon Hulburd, the only Democrat in the race already in general election mode, talking to voters in the district and honing his message, starting with his number one issue, jobs.

-- In CD8, at least three Republicans, including SB1070 and payday loan industry supporter Jonathan Paton, are duking it out for a chance to face incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson). Paton, the presumed R nominee, has been spending time in Phoenix, far from his district, holding a $1000 per person fundraiser at an Arizona Diamondbacks game; Giffords countered with an event held much closer to home - Hi Corbett Field in Tucson at a Tucson Toros game.

- Lesson: We'll see in November. I might be mistaken about where this is all leading, but the Ds are doing things right while their erstwhile R challengers are trying to stick political knives in each other's backs and making the rounds of the usual suspects, hoping to schmooze them into opening their wallets.

Later...

Republicans blaming Democrats for vandalism and threats

The pic of the shattered door at Congresswoman Giffords office is courtesy Blog for Arizona.

The Arizona Star has a story up quoting Tucson Tea Party leader Trent Humphries insinuating that Democrats have been the ones shouting epithets at their own members and vandalizing their own offices.

From the story -

"If those events happened, it had nothing to do with my group,” said organizer Trent Humphries, noting his group has held many demonstrations over the past year. “We haven’t had anything like that happen and I defy anyone to tell me any different.”

Humphries said for all he knows, the accusations didn’t even happen, or might even be traced back to a Democratic operative. “I’m not going to accuse them of wrongdoing, but if they’re accusing us, they’d better be offering proof.”

A loose coalition of varied beliefs, Humphries also said, “We can’t be responsible for every sign that goes up at every protest.”

The police will be able to find out if Mr. Humphries' speculation about a "Democratic operative" being behind some of the more vicious incidents of the last few days.

From a Yellow Sheet Report piece (no link as it is behind a subscriber firewall) -

GABBY’S DIGS VANDALIZED, MITCHELL THREATENED

...Mitchell aide Robbie Sherwood said the congressman’s Scottsdale office has also been bombarded with “menacing or threatening callers,” one of whom apparently voiced a death threat against Mitchell last Tuesday. Capitol Police in D.C., per protocol, were made aware of the threat and have received the caller’s phone number that popped up on the office’s caller ID feature...

Nor have Mitchell and Giffords (and the African-American and gay members of Congress) been the only folks to be subject to threats, vandalism, and epithets in recent days. Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-NY) has been threatened and had her office vandalized and Democratic Party offices across the country have been similarly attacked (Kansas, Ohio) and all members who voted for HCR have been threatened with "drawing and quartering" (a particularly gruesome way to kill someone).

According to most of the reports, in each incident, the local police, U.S. Capitol Police, and/or the FBI are looking into the incidents (depending on which agencies have jurisdiction).

Something tells me that this summer is going to be long, hot, and filled with similar incidents.

Stay tuned...

Health care vote coming up in Congress

Later this week, or perhaps early next week, the US House will vote on a health care reform bill. Its passage (assuming it passes, a likely occurrence but far from a guaranteed one) won't signal the end of the HCR debate - the Senate will still have to deal with it.

However, now is the time to help ensure HCR's passage through the House - contact your Congressional representative and urge them to support it.

My brief letter to Congressman Harry Mitchell, doing just that -

Dear Congressman Mitchell,

Within the next week or so, Congress will be voting on a health care reform bill.

Last year, you supported an HCR bill with a strong public option (Thank you!), and I am writing to you to urge you to continue to do so.

The current system of health insurance caters to the whims and desires of corporate bigwigs and lobbyists, while denying care for the patients who need it.

Throughout your political career, you have been known for standing up for the needs of your constituents. Right now, thousands of your constituents need you to stand strong one more time, this time against against the falsehoods and smears of those who are profiting from the current dysfunctional system of health insurance.

Congressman Mitchell, thank you for all that you have done for the people of your district.

Regards,

[cpmaz]

At this point, I expect that long and involved missives aren't necessary, but short notes to let our Congressmen and -women know that people are still watching and care about HCR are definitely in order this week.

Congressman Mitchell's online contact/email form is here.

For those who live in districts other than CD5...

Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) can be contacted here
Ed Pastor (CD4) can be contacted here
Raul Grijalva (CD7) can be contacted here
Gabrielle Giffords (CD8) can be contacted here

If you live in CDs 2, 3, and 6, you are represented by hardcore Republicans who are opposed to any kind of health care reform, no matter how much their constituents urgently need it to pass. Whether you support or oppose HCR, those reps don't care - they made up their minds before it was even proposed.

Later...

2010 Campaign Committee Update

Some of this material has been covered elsewhere but it merits inclusion here...

...In CD3, attorney Paulina Morris has filed for a run at the R nomination to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg. A name familiar to most AZ political geeks, Lisa Graham Keegan, has signed on as Morris' campaign treasurer. Keegan is a McCain confidant/ally and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction.

...In CD8, R candidate Thomas Carlson has ended his run for the chance to take on Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords. I don't know much about him or his reasons for running, but his reason for dropping out may be related to the fact that he raised a little over $2K for his campaign.

...In CD8, R state senator Jonathan Paton has finally resigned from the Senate to pursue his quest to unseat Giffords. He filed for his run weeks ago, so this wasn't unexpected.

...In CD1, R candidate Thomas Zaleski of Sedona has filed for a run at Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick.

...In CD5, perennial R candidate Susan Bitter Smith has filed for another run at Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell. She is a former member of the Scottsdale City Council and a current member of the Board of Directors of the Central Arizona Project. She is also a long-time lobbyist, mostly for the telecom/cable TV industry. Her entry into the race has long been rumored, so this isn't exactly a surprise.

...Also in CD5, R candidate Eric Wnuck has withdrawn from the race for his party's nomination. He cited family/business concerns, but a growing field in the R primary and a shrinking pool of available money may have had an impact on his decision, too. In his latest campaign filing, he listed donations at $52K; his first filing listed contributions of over $160K. That's a significant drop during a period when most campaigns are ramping *up* their fundraising efforts.

In Arizona offices...

...State Rep. David Bradley has filed for a run at Arizona Corporation Commission (filer ID 201000475). AZBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona has coverage here.

...Doug Ducey, a Scottsdale businessman, has filed to enter the race for the Republican nomination for State Treasurer. Ducey is the former CEO of Cold Stone Creamery, so he has deep pockets, but he isn't exactly as popular as Cold Stone.

...In a sign that the Rs consider Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard to be a very strong candidate, the Republican Governor's Association has set up a PAC in Arizona so that they can expend monies attempting to influence the governor's race this year (filer ID 201000467).

...In Scottsdale, Republican Linda Milhaven, the former Chair of the Scottsdale Cultural Council, has entered the race for Scottsdale City Council. Her entry into the race has long been rumored and isn't a surprise. There are now eight active committees for runs for the three available seats on the Scottsdale City Council.

Later...

Best and worst bargains - 2008 elections

Edit on 12/8 to update County numbers, below...

Post-General Election campaign finance reports are in, and normally this would be the time to do a really geeky and dry post listing figures for contributions, expenditures, cash on hand, etc. However, since the election results are in, I'm going to do something a little different.

Still geeky and dry, but different. :))

Today's post will list the best bargains (based on lowest expenditures per vote for election victors) and the worst bargains (based on highest expenditures per vote for election losers.)

The expenditure figures taken from the cycle-to-date boxes of the campaigns' post-general reports; vote totals taken from the appropriate reporting authority, either the AZ Secretary of State or the Maricopa County Recorder.

Best Bargain - AZ Congressional races

Republican Trent Franks was easily the leader here, spending $400,019.59 to receive 200,914 votes, or $1.99/vote. Republican Jeff Flake was the second most frugal victor, spending $3.76/vote. By contrast, the victor who spent the *most* per vote was another Republican, John Shadegg. Shadegg spent $17.85/vote ($2,656,692.67 spent, 200914 votes received).

Worst Bargain - AZ Congressional races

Democrat Bob Lord, Shadegg's opponent in CD3, "won" this dubious distinction, spending $1,745,210.41 to receive 115,759 votes, for a $17.85/vote pace. The only losing candidate who spent at a pace that was even close to Lord's was Republican Tim Bee. Bee spent 13.25/vote in his failed campaign to unseat Gabrielle Giffords in CD8.

Giffords and Harry Mitchell (D-CD5) each spent more than $15/vote, but since they won their races (rather handily at that), the money spent was a good deal.

Note: Challengers Don Karg (R-CD4), Rebecca Schneider (D-CD6), and Joe Sweeney (R-CD7 [I think]) haven't filed post-general reports that I could find, but I doubt that any of them spent enough money to challenge Lord for the 'Worst Bargain' status.


The comparison of county campaigns was more difficult, because both major candidates for county attorney, Andrew Thomas and Tim Nelson, as well as supervisor candidates Fulton Brock, Joel Sinclaire, and Max Wilson haven't filed post-general reports yet. (Note: with Joel Sinclaire's passing, his committee has been suspended/terminated. I'm not sure if/when a final campaign finance report will be filed.)

Brock, Thomas, Nelson, and Wilson all have reports up on the County Recorder's website, and according to the time/date stamps on the forms, all reports were submitted on time.

However, I don't want it to be said that I'm not able to form conclusions based on incomplete information. :)))

Best Bargain - Maricopa County races

Right now, Don Stapley is the clear winner in this category, but that could change once his legal expenses are added in. At this point, however, the Republican incumbent spent $9933.45 to receive 164,381 votes, or $0.29/vote to retain his seat in SD2.

Note: Stapley was a little creative in filling out his report, neglecting to fill out the "cycle-to-date" column. The expenditure number listed in this post is a total of the "cycle-to-date" number from his pre-general report and the "current period" number from his post-general report.

Worst Bargain - Maricopa County races

Ed Hermes, the Democratic candidate in Supervisor District 1, "led" this category, spending $112,026.14 to garner 119,971 votes, for a $0.93/vote pace. While for the purposes of this post, this campaign qualifies as the "worst" bargain among the county races, I expect Ed to take the lessons of this cycle and apply them to another campaign, one that he may very well win.

Tim Nelson challenged for this one, spending over $438K in his unsuccessful campaign for County Attorney. However, while he spent nearly 4 times as much as Hermes, his countywide race garnered him more than 4 times the votes, dropping his dollars per vote number to $0.80.

One item of interest from Fulton Brock's post-general report were contributions from a couple in Oro Valley, which is in Pima County. The twosome share a name with some of the people involved in the Stapley indictment. On October 16, 2008, Jason and Kris Wolfswinkel each gave $390 (the maximum allowed individual contribution) to Brock's campaign.

Stapley's failure to report his involvement with some Wolfswinkel family businesses is at the heart of his legal travails.

Wouldn't it be sweet if Brock's name was added to the list of indicted Republicans? Yeah, I know it probably won't happen, but one has to wonder why some Pima County residents care enough about a Maricopa County supervisor's race to fork over the max contribution to his campaign.

Both of these could change once all reports are in, plus the numbers don't include the "independent" expenditures that benefitted Joe Arpaio and Andrew Thomas. However, they both won their races, no matter how unethically, so they don't qualify for "worst bargain" under the guidelines of this post.


I was going to do one of the comparisons for some of the ballot initiatives, but there were a couple of hurdles there - too many of the committees haven't filed reports, and in many cases, there are multiple committees in support/opposition of a given prop.


Comparison purposes -

To put some of these numbers in perspective, in 2004, then-Congressman JD Hayworth spent $7.58/vote to retain his seat. However, that was nearly 180 times the rate of his opponent, Elizabeth Rogers. She spent roughly $0.04 per vote.

Compare this to 2006, when both spent more per vote in their races. Hayworth spent $31.12/vote to lose to Harry Mitchell in CD5; Rogers spent $0.06/vote to win the Kyrene Justice of the Peace race.

OK, that's not really relevant to the rest of the post, but it should give pause to those who would support a speculated-upon Hayworth gubernortorial candidacy. It should also give hope to candidates like Rebecca Schneider and Marilyn Fox, who ran strong campaigns on limited budgets.

There is life after losing an election.

Let's see what happens in two years before considering them and others like them, to be electoral afterthoughts.

Other campaign and campaign finance news -

...According to the Secretary of State's website, the first official candidate committee for 2010 has been formed by Michelle Reagan, Republican State Representative from north Scottsdale. It's an exploratory committee and doesn't list the office that she is "exploring." My guess is State Senate, though Corporation Commission or State Treasurer are possibilities.

...Jim McAllister, an AZCentral.com Plugged In blogger, notes that victorious candidates Jim Lane (Scottsdale Mayor) and Lisa Borowsky (Scottsdale City Council) already have their hands out to developers, seeking contributions to retire their campaign debts.

Apparently, they don't read the news reports about indicted and convicted public officials.

...The AZ Republic has a story that current Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne will be forming a committee to explore a run for State Attorney General in 2010.

Ummm....yeah. Horne has spent most of two terms making the public education system in AZ one of the worst in the country, and now he wants us to set him loose on the legal system?

Later...

Thank you, Senate Republicans

This is the second, less gentle, smack talk post (I meant to do this over the weekend, but work sort of intruded... :) )


...In the waning hours of this year's legislative session, the Arizona Chapter of the Flat Earth Society caved in the Center for Arizona Policy and the other ideological bullies in their party when they voted to send a ban on same-sex marriage to November's ballot.


All sorts of legislative arm-twisting, shenanigans, and outright rule-breaking were used to bring the measure to the floor and force its passage and referral to the fall ballot.


Let's be clear on one thing - the measure is spiteful, petty, and vindictive and should be opposed by anyone with a moral center, a shred of humanity, and a soul.



Having said all that, there's a silver lining to Friday's debacle.



They've now thoroughly pissed off and motivated a voting bloc that overwhelmingly votes Democratic.



The heretofore fairly well-behaved wingers in the lege, or at least heretofore ineffective (more on that point in a moment), hadn't done much harm this session.


Lots of preening and posturing could be seen, and bellowing and bloviatingcould be heard, but they never could quite muster the votes necessary to push their anti-everything agenda of ballot measures (doing an end-run around the Governor's veto pen).

Unlike, say, in 2006, when they placed 8 measures on that fall's ballot, most of which were of the anti-immigrant or anti-education. Note: Prop 107, the anti-same sex marriage measure on the ballot that year, was placed there by initiative petition.


Guess it was easier this time around to get 16 Senators and 35 Representatives to sign on rather than go out and gather >230,000 signatures. Probably cheaper, too - they spent more than $1,000,000 in 2006.


Of course, that election in 2006 with the anti-same sex marriage question is the same election that brought some voices of sanity to the lege, leading to, or at least contributing to, the wingers' ineffectiveness in 2007 and 2008.

There just wasn't quite enough of them to work their hate with their usual glib, saccharin-tongued ease.

As evidenced by Friday's vote in the Senate, they still have some sway in the lege, but it's much less than in sessions past, and they had to work a *lot* harder to wield the influence they had remaining.



To sum up, they've motivated the Democratic Party base and a large bloc of independent voters in Arizona to a degree not seen since...

2006, the last really bad year for Republicans in AZ.



If Barack Obama actually beats McCain in AZ, or if the Dems take control of one or both chambers of the state lege, the Reps should look back at the ballot measure and their zeal and ruthlessness in railroading it through when parceling out the blame.



While I won't predict either of those outcomes at this time (still too much of an uphill battle for the lege), I do have one prediction - while the CD8 campaigns will play out over the summer and into the fall, for all practical purposes, Tim Bee's quest to unseat Gabrielle Giffords is over.


In CD8, only a relatively moderate Republican like Jim Kolbe has a chance of winning (not that Kolbe was actually a moderate) but with his behavior in railroading through SCR1042, Tim Bee has painted himelf as being an extremeist a la Randy Graf.

11 of the 16 Senators who voted for SCR1042 are facing general election challenges (a couple are termed out, one is facing only a primary challenge, or two are totally unchallenged in their quests for reelection). All of their challengers deserve support, but none more so than Robert Boehlke, the Democratic challenger to Jack Harper in LD4. Tim Bee may have been the conductor on this railroad, but Harper was the engineer driving the train.

Harper's a complete tool, brazen ideological thug and utter loon, which would be fine if he only impacted his own district (then it would a problem for the voters there, not the rest of us).

Unfortunately, he's hurting the entire state now, and deserves to be turned out of office.

What they did wasn't just petulant, it abominable. However, it may not be the end of the world - a measure that was put on the ballot to raise their own voter turnout may have an even stronger effect on the turnout of Democrats and Independents.

Pico at Wild Chihuahas has some great coverage on this issue.

Later!

Short Attention Span Musing - Congressional Edition

...In the "big" news this week, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes announced that she would not run for the Republican nomination in CD1 (PolitickerAZ).

This may actually help not the other Republicans running, but instead it may aid the Democrats' chances of taking Renzi's seat. While Mayes may be too moderate and too conscientious a public servant to suit the power structure of the Arizona Republican Party, it's precisely those qualities that would have made her a formidable candidate in a general election.

As for the other major Rep candidates, Sydney "my soul is owned by the mining industry" Hay (already in the race) and Ken "broomstick" Bennett (rumored to be entering the race)?? Not so much.

Follow the links - each one has major weaknesses as a candidate, weaknesses that the eventual Democratic nominee will be certain to bring to the attention of CD1's voters.


...Over in CD5, while the Republican challengers to Harry Mitchell were making nice with each other, in an "aww shucks, isn't that cute" sort of way (and taking shots at Democrats in general and Mitchell in particular) on Monday, Mitchell was sponsoring a 21st century version of the GI Bill (H.R. 5740).

No AZ Republicans in Congress signed on as cosponsors of the bill to support post-9/11 veterans.
No Republican challenger in CD5 has issued a statement that they support H.R. 5740 either, and a quick perusal of their campaign websites finds far more support for the war in Iraq than for the servicemen and women fighting and dying in the war.


...In CD3, Republican John Shadegg had a mixed week -

First, he found out that the U.S. Chamber of Congress loves him (no word though on what Paradise Valley thinks of him or if he understands that PV is part of his district, and the US CofC isn't) and he loved them right back - attacking Congressional Democrats for delaying a vote on the Colombia Free Trade deal.

Later in the week, however, his constituents found out that alleged "taxpayer watchdog" Shadegg (as well as CD6's Jeff Flake) has no problem with taking international trips at taxpayer expense.

Then there was the whole "Shadegg was recorded by the FBI on a Renzi wiretap" news, too. :)

Oh, and challenger Bob Lord raised more than $220K during the first quarter and has more than $630K on hand.

All in all, *not* a good week for Congressman Shadegg.


...Of course, while Shadegg's week fell into the "not good" category, the week of Tim Bee, Republican challenger to Gabrielle Giffords in CD8 had an "absolutely lousy" week.

Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion broke the story of a taxpayer-funded campaign...errr...'thank-you' ad for Bee. In his update on the original post, Tedski found that the source of the funding for the TV spot was a bunch of school districts and that the ad aired not in his legislative district, but in CD8. Hmmm...

Now that the DCCC has filed a complaint over the spot, Bee may learn the hard way that he's trying to step up to the big leagues.

Part of that lesson will be understanding that the FEC is going to hammer him for stuff that AZ's Secretary of State Jan Brewer would turn a blind eye to (at least for fellow Republicans, anyway.)


Later!

Quarterly FEC reports - updated

Updated on 10/16 with every incumbent now reporting; many of those who are just 'exploring' haven't filed yet. Many of those, because of the timing of their organization, won't *have* to report until after the first of the year.


Key: Candidate name, affiliation ( * signifies incumbents) - total contributions, PAC and other committee $, individual contributions, cash on hand

CD1

Rick Renzi, Republican* - $1,200; $1,000; $200; $2,085.59
Note: Renzi still owes over $100K in legal fees from earlier in the year.

Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat - $217,050.00; $1,000; $216,050.00; $173,227.81

Sydney Hay, Republican - $57,933.81; $0; $57,933.81; $106,267.60
Note: $50,000 of Ms. Hay's fundraising came in the form of a loan to the campaign by the candidate.

Howard Shanker, Democrat - $18,160.24; $0; $18,160.24; $9,367.88
Note: $2,586.34 of his total came from the candidate and the campaign owes $9,300 on a credit card.

Ellen Simon, Democrat - $1,550.00; $0; $1,550.00; $4.41
Note: All $1,550 of Ms. Simon's funds came from the candidate herself.

CD1 note: To borrow a phrase from the film "Bull Durham" - Ms. Kirkpatrick has "announced [her] presence with authority." Her strong quarter sends a loud message both to potential Democratic primary opponents and potential Republican opposition in the general. Her candidacy is for real, and anyone thinking of jumping into the race (either side of the aisle) better be prepared for the long haul.


CD2

Trent Franks, Republican* - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87

John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87

CD3

Bob Lord, Democrat - $142,133.52; $5,000.00; $137,133.52; $332,189.52

John Shadegg, Republican* - $192,653.00; $36,400.00; $156,253.00; $450,930.26

Annie Loyd, Independent - $12,139.24; 0; $12,139.24; $5,001.16

Bob Stump, Republican - $0; $0; $0; $13,484.68

CD3 notes: You know that Independent Loyd has an uphill fight when the numbers show that her active campaign has less cash on hand than the inactive (for many years) campaign of Republican Stump. Also, the Lord campaign seems to have legs; while the incumbent Shadegg has outraised him and leads in COH, the differences are fairly insignificant, especially when the majority of the fundraising difference is rooted in Shadegg's advantage in PAC money.

This one is going to be a real race and one to keep an eye on.

Note on the note - Mr. Lord will be speaking at the next meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Jewish Democratic on next Thursday. More on that in my "events calendar" post later this week.

CD4

Ed Pastor, Democrat* - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71

CD5

Harry Mitchell, Democrat* - $354,638.52; $140,470.52; $214,168.00

Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25

JD Hayworth, Republican - $0; $0; $0, $20,279.70

Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0

CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.

CD6

Jeff Flake, Republican - $225,765.78; $22,500.00; $203,265.78; $749,738.38

CD7

Raul Grijalva, Democrat* - $63,122.02; $0; $63,122.02; $94,425.00

CD8

Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80

Tim Bee, Republican - $134,620.00; $0; $134,620.00; $119,316.25

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat* - $257,800.05; $96,548.41; $161,251.64; $1,126,838.82
Note: Giffords' info has been corrected by an update; a previous "October" report that was filed in September is NOT the October quarterly report. Oops - I should've caught that in my original post. :(

CD8 note: With a cash on hand total that is slightly more than 10% of Gabrielle Giffords', the fundraising effort of sitting State Senate President Bee can only be termed as "disappointing" for the Republicans.

Of course, I'm a Democrat. :)))))


Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.

The FEC numbers count more. :))

A Sonoran Alliance post on the significance of the numbers in CD5 and CD8 here.

A Sustainablity, Equity, Development post on CD8 is here.

Later!

Quarterly FEC filings are rolling in...

from the various Congressional campaigns. The list isn't complete (the due date is the 15th) but here's a partial summary of reports from active committees (not necessarily active candidates) -

Key: Candidate name, affiliation - total contributions, PAC $, individual contributions, cash on hand

CD1

CD2

Trent Franks, Republican - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87

CD3

Annie Loyd, Independent - $12139.24; 0; $12139.24; $5001.16

CD4

Ed Pastor, Democrat - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71


CD5

Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0

CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.

CD6

CD7

CD8

Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat - $663,297.91; $228,891.49; $434,406.42; $407,041.71

Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.

The FEC numbers count more. :))

Yes, it's a little early for this post, but I work weekends and won't have the time to do a more complete post until early next week.

Oops, and it's my oops this time...

but I'm not the only one who made the same oops.

A couple of weeks ago, I (and a few other AZ bloggers) did a post about the Congressional quarterly fundraising reports filed with the FEC.

One of the things that we all concluded, based on the reports that we examined, was that while Rick Renzi, the ethically-challenged Republican in CD1 was down to approximately $20,000 cash on hand and wasn't fundraising, he was still way ahead of any Democratic challengers.

Turns out that was an error.

While most of us just use the "View / Download Electronic Filings: " link to find AZ candidates' financial reports, not all of them are actually listed there.

Today, I went through the "View Images of All Financial Reports: " link, and actually found some reports that weren't covered in the earlier post. And they still aren't available at the other link.

From CD1, as of June 30th -

Howard Shanker, Democrat - $47,251 raised, $26141.04 on hand. (PDF)

Mary Kim Titla, Democrat - $4,606.01 raised, $2,575 on hand. (PDF)

Allen Affeldt, Democrat - Terminated committee

Nothing else that I could find in this district, here in CD5, or in CD8, though I easily could have missed some since users can only search by name, not district or even state. I know that Ann Kirkpatrick has announced in CD1, but there's nothing on the FEC's website as yet.

It's still early, and we should expect many more names from both parties to float out of CD1, as well as seeing Republican names mentioned in CD5 and CD8.

Later!