Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.

Rats fleeing the sinking ship: the Lake/DeWit "scandal" continues to unfold

The word scandal is in quotes because, to the best of my knowledge (I'm not an attorney), nothing that DeWit did was illegal.

First, from BusinessInsider -

Kari Lake just successfully pushed out Arizona's top Republican Party official after he allegedly tried to bribe her to stay out of politics

The chairman of the Arizona Republican Party resigned on Wednesday, alleging the GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake all but forced him into doing so.

On Tuesday, the Daily Mail published a 10-minute audio recording in which Jeff DeWit, the party chairman who's served for just under a year, appears to bribe Lake into staying out of politics for two years.

[snip]

Lake, apparently recording the in-person interaction herself, can be heard repeatedly rejecting the entreaties, saying she wouldn't even do it for $1 billion.

The rats, including the biggest one himself, are falling all over themselves to avoid AZ.

From AZ Family, written by Ben Bradley -

Trump no longer coming to Arizona; AZGOP Freedom Fest canceled

Former President Donald Trump will no longer be coming to Arizona this week, where he was scheduled to speak during a GOP rally Friday evening in Phoenix. The AZGOP Freedom Fest has also been canceled, an Arizona Republican Party spokesperson confirmed to Arizona’s Family.

Trump was scheduled to be the keynote speaker at the event. Other speakers who were scheduled to appear included Congress members Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh, Charlie Kirk and Tyler Bowyer. Tickets to the event were sold through eventbrite, and a state GOP spokesperson says refunds will be issued.

Maybe Lake should learn a lesson from another AZ Republican who recorded things.

From TPM, dated June 21, 2012 -

Arizona Lobbyist Suspected Of Working For FBI Asked To Leave GOP Fundraiser

A lobbyist suspected of working for the feds in an FBI corruption sting was asked to leave a fundraiser for two state Republicans that was attended by Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin (R), TPM has learned.

Lobbyist Mike Williams, who is suspected of being involved in a wide-ranging corruption probe of Arizona politicians which has already ensnared Rep. Ben Arredondo, was asked to leave a June 18 fundraiser by lobbyist Stan Barnes, who was hosting the event at his firm Copper State Consulting Group in Phoenix. Donations at the “M-Squared Fundraser” went to Republican state Sen. Michele Reagan and Republican state Rep. Michelle Ugenti, while Tobin was a special guest.

Note: Williams is still a lobbyist registered with the Arizona Secretary of State.

"Shunning" is a time-honored tactic for Republicans when dealing with one of their own who records things, so in the long run, this may help Mark Lamb in the AZ Senate R primary* and Ruben Gallego in the general**.

* = I still believe that Lake will ultimately be the R nominee.  This may help Lamb get closer, but it won't put him over the top.  On the other hand, she still has a lot of time to make more mistakes.

** = I still believe that Gallego will win in the general election, but it won't be a walkover.  This helps, though.

Fasten your seatbelts: 2023 was an interesting year but just a prelude to the bumpy ride that will be 2024

I know that it's early and later writers will do summaries that are both longer and less Maricopa County-centric.

Having said that, there are a number of developments in the political world here in AZ in 2023 that will have effects in 2024.

1. It started in 2022 (actually, it may have started before that when it became obvious that she was a lousy US Senator, but it become official in 2022), but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's  change from the Democratic Party to Unaffiliated has set up a 2024 election race that involves Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (I'm not predicting that she will win her primary, but as of now, I'm presuming that she will be the nominee) and, perhaps, Sinema herself (if she mounts a third party run).

From CNBC, dated 12/9/2022 -

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party to become

 

independent

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has switched parties to become an independent, complicating the Democrats’ narrow control of the U.S. Senate.

Sinema said in a tweet Friday that she was declaring her “independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent.”

It's a statewide race, but since Maricopa County has ~60% of the state's population and registered voters, the race is considered to be Maricopa-centric.

2. The decision by Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to not seek re-election in 2024.  Her decision has set off a massive primary battle for north/northwestern Maricopa County district.  Not every R running for the seat actually lives in the district, but that's not required per the US Constitution and since this is a safe R seat, no R candidate will pass this one by.

I'm actually a little surprised that former Phoenix city council member Sal DiCiccio and perennial candidate Rodney Glassman haven't jumped into the race.

On the other hand, it's early yet. :)

From AP, dated 10/17/2023 -

US Rep. Debbie Lesko won’t seek re-election in Arizona next year

U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko announced Tuesday that she will not run for office next year.

The Arizona Republican has decided to spend more time with family.

In a statement, Lesko, 64, said traveling every month to Washington, D.C. has been difficult and that “D.C. is broken.”

None of the Rs running to replace will "unbreak" D.C.

3. The announcement by Democrat Paul Penzone that not only will he not seek re-election as Maricopa County Sheriff in 2024, he'll resign from the job in January.

From Arizona's Family, written by their digital news staff and Micaela Marshall, dated 10/2/2023 -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

As off this writing, only three committees are open for a run at the office - one by Penzone himself, one by Joe Arpaio, the man Penzone defeated in 2016 (but that committee is very old and may not be intended for a run in 2024) and one by Jerry Sheridan, a former Arpaio henchman/deputy.  However, he formed his committee well before Penzone's announcement.  He was going to run regardless of everything else.

4. The first three items listed are "horse race" matters and will receive scads of attention from the MSM, if only because they're easy to report on.

However, while not as easy to report on, the next issue may be more significant.  It's about how races are run. I've listed it here at #4, but it may end up being the most significant issue in 2024.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/26/2023 -

98% of Arizonans will have new elections officials in 2024, report finds

Arizona has lost nearly all of its experienced election officials and 98% of the state will have new officials running elections in 2024 than ran the 2020 elections, a new report found. 

The Grand Canyon State has been center stage for election misinformation since 2020, with efforts such as the Arizona Senate Republicans’ “audit” of the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake’s continuing efforts to overturn her 2022 loss in the race for governor.

The state has also seen threats of violence towards election officials and those who help administer elections. Five recent cases from the U.S. Department of Justice were all from Arizona that included individuals who called for election officials to be killed and in some areas, such as in Yavapai County, one official ended up needing security from the local sheriff at their home.

This isn't just an Arizona problem, it's a national one.  

From The Union of Concerned Scientists' The Equation, dated 10/18/2023 -

2024 Election Workers Need Better Protection from Harassment

Most election workers are probably like my late mother-in-law. Mary Holmes spent many of her senior years volunteering at the polls in Cambridge, MA. She considered this work a part of her civic duty, just as she had decades earlier when she volunteered as a school traffic guard.  

She never voiced a moment of fear, either from motorists who respected her waving of arms and her reflective vest, or from voters, many of whom hurriedly hustled in and out of the ballot box on their way to work or on the way home from work to dinner. I cannot recall anything specific she ever said about this work. It was just what you did in a community. Her many years of service spoke for themselves about her pride in playing a seemingly small role in democracy.

We’ve learned more in recent years about how large a role she actually played. The mobs of January 6, 2021 and the malevolent harassment of election workers and officials all over the nation by deniers of the 2020 defeat of former President Donald Trump have left this slice of democracy on an unprecedented precipice. According to a report released last month by Issue One, a nonpartisan democracy think tank, roughly 40 percent of chief local elections officials in 11 western states have left their posts since the 2020 election.

The Issue One report referenced in both articles is here.

Short Attention Span Musing - Popcorn Edition

...Kari Lake is looking to make nice with the same people that she trashed in 2022

From Politico -

Kari Lake ‘drove a stake’ through the heart of McCain Republicans. Now she wants a meeting.

Kari Lake is finally ready to move on from the 2022 election — or at least she wants her rivals to.

The Arizona Republican has given up — for now — the fire-and-brimstone approach she took in her failed gubernatorial bid last year, adopting a different tack in her current Senate campaign: diplomacy.

One thing in the article caught my attention (emphasis added by me) -

She has not made contact with former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, according to a person familiar with their interactions. And Sharon Harper, a consigliere for Cindy McCain, the widow of the late senator, said Lake has not reached out to her. Harper is fundraising for Sinema.

My guess is that many of the "traditional" Rs want to vote for Kyrsten Sinema, if she runs for re-election.  If she doesn't, those folks will be faced with two options that they won't like - voting for Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, or voting for Kari Lake, someone who openly despises them.

If Gallego can siphon off enough supporters, it may help him.

...If Lake wins election to the US Senate, she may be moving to a schoolyard...at a middle school. 

From The Oklahoman -

OK Sen. Markwayne Mullin defends Senate fight, tells Sean Hannity it's 'Oklahoma values'

U.S. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Oklahoma, said he believed Oklahomans "would be pretty upset" at him if he hadn't threatened a union leader to a fight during a senate hearing,

Mullin, 45, and Teamsters leader Sean O'Brien had a heated exchange during a senate hearing on labor unions, at the end of which Mullin asked O'Brien if he wanted to fight. Mullin even stood from his chair, but was stopped by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, who was chairing the hearing.

...In what may be the news of the week, a convicted felon is joining the clown car of the race to replace the outgoing Debbie Lesko in CD8.

From NBC -

'QAnon Shaman' who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 files paperwork to run for Congress

Jacob Chansley, the Arizona man who gained notoriety as the “QAnon Shaman” who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, filed paperwork to run for Congress as a Libertarian candidate in the battleground state’s 8th Congressional District.

Rep. Debbie Lesko, R-Ariz., announced last month that she won’t seek re-election.

Chansley cannot vote for a candidate for elected office as a convicted felon, but he *can* run for office.

One question: will he be in costume while on the campaign trail?  I'm guessing "Yes."

From the NBC story -

.

While he has yet to form an FEC committee for the run, at least not one that I can find, he has filed a statement of interest with the Arizona Secretary of State

That statement, emphasis added by me -

 

Kyrsten Sinema: Even the NRSC thinks she's toast

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From NBCNews, emphasis added by me -

Head of Senate GOP campaign arm shows Republicans internal poll with Democrat leading in Arizona

At a closed-door meeting Tuesday, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines showed fellow GOP senators an internal poll of a three-way Arizona Senate race that found Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading with 41%, followed by Republican Kari Lake with 37% and independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema with 17%, said a source familiar with the meeting.

Notably, Daines told Republicans that Sinema is currently pulling more votes from Lake than she is from Gallego, despite her longtime affiliation with Democrats before she became an independent last year.

Actually, the highlighted section may be an incorrect statement.

From the Political Wire post -

In a head-to-head matchup, Gallego leads Lake 49% to 44%.

Based on that, with Sinema in the race, Gallego is leading by 4%; with her not running, he's leading by 5%.  Seems like that she's pulling votes from him, so the NRSC may be hoping that she runs for re-election.  She's not going to win, but her presence helps Lake.

Senate reports are in*

* = Kari Lake entered the race too late to have to file a report this time around.

Net contributions and refunds are for the reported quarter (Q3 2023) while cash on hand is for the end of the quarter.

A few takes:

Ruben Gallego is doing well.  He's got more than $5 million in cash on hand and the vastness of his filing (10K+ pages!) indicates that many of his contributions are from small donors.

Mark Lamb is toast now that Lake is in the race.

Sinema is an interesting case.  She raised the least amount of cash and has the smallest filing of the three.  She also has the most cash on hand; actually, she has more than twice the total of Gallego, who's doing well.

She may not be raising much, but she's stockpiling what she has.

My guess is that she has one of three plans in place for the money (there may be others, but these seem to be the most likely to me):.

1. She intends to run for re-election, and is saving the cash for that.

2. She has found a way, or hopes to find a way, to keep the money for herself.  There are restrictions against doing just that, but if anyone has the smarts to figure out a way around them, she's got 'em.

3. She intends to gift the cash to one of the other candidates (Lake?).  Given her track record, this seems to the least likely of the three.

Looking at her report (hoping for some insight), I was struck by two questions -

1. She's reporting all contributions as being for the primary. As an I, though, she's not going to face a primary.  On the other hand, their may be some arcane FEC rule on the subject and this may be an actual violation.

2. She's still fundraising through ActBlue.  I thought that was a platform only for Democratic candidates and committees, and she is resoundingly not one.

Paul Penzone not seeking a 3rd term and will resign in January

Let the political games of musical chairs and idle speculation begin.

From AZFamily -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

Penzone also announced he would be stepping down before his current term is up, "I think it’s appropriate for me to depart of the office in January and clear the way so during the last year of my term going into elections, there aren’t distractions. It gives me a chance to pursue some opportunities to serve the public in several ways and to do some things that present themselves as incredible options and opportunities."

I'm not much into musical chairs, but I can do idle speculation with the best of them.

Caveat: No actual humans were talked for this.

I have no idea who the Democratic nominee will be; the R nominee will (probably) be someone who should be in prison used to work for Joe Arpaio.

As for Penzone's next gig, if it's not elected, I could only guess - maybe he's going to be the commissioner of the World Pickleball Tour.

OK, that's probably not going to happen. :)

Some speculation is that he plans to run for an elected office, so I'll talk about that.

US Senate - could happen, but probably not, and for two reasons.  1. Ruben Gallego has been in the race for a while.  2. Kyrsten Sinema is still lurking; a Sinema candidacy is expected to give the race to the R nominee.

US House of Representatives - could happen, but that will depend on other chips falling in a way that's favorable to him.  

If he entered the race against R David Schweikert, he'd almost certainly cause at least two of the announced candidates in the crowded Democratic primary there to withdraw.  I don't think it will happen, but given his documented history of taking on entrenched office holders with ethics issues, this one isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If he entered the race to replace Gallego in Congress, he would lose in the primary there - the candidates there have been active since before the moment that Gallego announced his intent to run for Senate.

If he entered the race for the seat held by Greg Stanton, well, I suppose it *could* happen, but I expect that he wouldn't enter that race unless Stanton announces that he won't seek another term.

Arizona Corporation Commission - the only state-level seats on the 2024 ballot.  Seems too low profile for him.

City Council, School Board, Justice of the Peace, and Constable slots - Not only do I not know where he lives (eligibility for those is residency-specific), I think those are too low profile.

State Legislature - he's highly respected; why would he want to lose that?  In other words, not gonna happen...though if he were to join the lege, he could serve as a counterbalance to John Kavanagh.

What I think will happen is that he will accept a position with the Biden Administration.

If that happens, there will be a certain synchronicity to that - Penzone's predecessor was pardoned by Biden's predecessor.

Basically, one skell pardoned another.

If Biden hires Penzone, it will be a situation where one decent human being hires another.

Poll that says a 3rd party run by Kyrsten Sinema doesn't mean a victory for the GOP in the 2024 US Senate election

I don't believe it, but I'm going to leave this here.

From Noble Predictive Insights -

The Sinema Situation: Gallego's Edge and the Enigma of Sinema's Independent Run

Sinema's Third-Party Run Does Not Guarantee a GOP Victory in Arizona Senate Race

As the 2024 Arizona Senate race looms, recent public opinion polling data fromNoble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) – formerly OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) – latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) sheds light on some intriguing dynamics that challenge conventional political wisdom. Contrary to initial assumptions, the potential entry of Senator Kyrsten Sinema as a third-party candidate does not necessarily guarantee a GOP victory. The poll results indicate that Sinema faces challenges within her own party, which might make her path to victory more complex.

This AZPOP, conducted from July 13 – 17, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema: Under Water With AZ Voters

Hope she has gills.

From MorningConsult -

U.S. Senator Rankings: Manchin, Sinema Are Among America’s Least Popular Ahead of Potential Campaigns

How the senators stack up

Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming boasts a 70% approval rating in his state, making him the most popular senator, according to surveys Morning Consult conducted April 1-June 30 in all 50 states.

On the other side of the coin, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell remains America’s most unpopular senator, with roughly 3 in 5 Kentucky voters expressing disapproval of his job performance. His current position is in line with his standing in the first quarter of 2023, driven by his continued poor standing among Republican voters following his 2020 re-election.

[snip]

It's not all bad news for Sinema - she's marginally above water with D voters.

On the other hand, she's doing worse with Independent voters...and they represent a plurality among AZ voters.

My guess is that poll numbers won't mean anything to her.

According to her latest FEC filing (period ending 6/30/2023), she has more than $10.75 million in cash on hand

Prediction 1: The only way she *doesn't* run is if she finds a way to give her committee's cash to herself.

Prediction 2: The only way she wins is if Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) drops out of the race (seems very unlikely as he's outraising her by a wide margin) and the Rs nominate someone as crazy as Rep. Paul Gosar (not exactly out of the realm of possibility).

Federal Committee update

Pastor is a current member of the Phoenix City Council.

Aguilar is a current member of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project.

Both are looking to replace Ruben Gallego in Congress, who's running for Senate.

Sawdy is mounting a campaign to replace Republican Debbie Lesko.

O'Donnell is running to replace Republican Juan Ciscomani.

Well, we have the first official Democratic primary for Congress. Actually, we have two.

And it's still early.

On 4/4, Phoenix City Council member Yassamin Ansari formed a committee for a run at replacing Senate candidate Ruben Gallego (D) in CD3.

On 4/5, State Senator and former chair of the AZ Democratic Party (ADP), Raquel Teran formed one for a run at the same seat.

It's widely expected that Laura Pastor will jump into the race, too.

On 4/6, a name who's a bit of blast from the past, former ADP chair and 2012 candidate for Congress, Andrei Cherny formed a committee for a run at the CD1 seat held by ethically challenged R David Schweikert.  He joins current State Rep. and doctor. Amish Shah in the race.

I do expect there to be Democratic primaries in R held districts CD2 (Northern AZ) and CD6 (in Southern AZ), so 2024 should be a popcorn-riffic year.

And I haven't even discussed the many Rs who will run for the U.S. Senate, none of whom has formed a committee as yet.

Time for some 2024 speculation

Yes, the 2022 election is barely in the books and the inevitable lawsuit has been filed but not resolved, but 2024 races have already started.

First, a few caveats:

1. No actual humans were spoken to during the production of this post.  This is purely about me throwing ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks.

2. Any names/people mentioned here are folks who I think may look at running for a particular office but that doesn't mean that I think that all will actually run for that office.

3. Anyone who currently holds an office will be presumed to retain that office, if they actually run for it.  Some will be vulnerable and will lose their offices.

US President:

The 2020 nominees, Joe Biden and Cheeto, are making noises about running (actually, Cheeto has already announced his candidacy).  However, I don't believe that either will actually run in 2024.  They'll both be *old*.  Right now, both are making noises about doing so because of Biden's desire to not to already be seen as a lame duck POTUS and Cheeto's desire to not be seen as incarcerated.

And his ego.  Cheeto's vanity is boundless.  For him, the presidency is less about public service and more about self-aggrandizement. And profit.

US Senate seat from Arizona:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat is up for election, and her decision to change her registration to Independent opens up the Democratic primary in a big way,

The Republican primary was already going to be wide open but her move may make it wilder.

Doug Ducey, the current governor in AZ, has long been rumored to be eyeing Sinema's seat.

Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General in AZ, may have lost the R Senate primary in 2022 and is term-limited as AG, but he doesn't seem to be going away - he's running radio ads catering to rural voters.  He may simply be burning off his budget, but I think that he's keeping his options open.

Paul Gosar and/or Andy Biggs, both are batshit crazy members of Congress.  Assuming they avoid going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

Kelli Ward, currently the batshit crazy chair of the AZGOP.  Assuming she avoids going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

An unnamed vassal of a rich guy who's looking to by a Senate seat.  Think: 2024 version of Blake Masters/Peter Thiel.

Other election-denying/anti-democracy Rs may also looking at the seat.

With Sinema's change, the R primary transitions from being the political equivalent of a pro wrestling battle royal to being an outright bar brawl.

If Sinema appears on the ballot, it will have the effect of siphoning votes away from the Democratic nominee, so if the R nominee isn't a batshit crazy ones, they'll win in a walkover; if the R voters pick a crazy nominee in their primary, the race will closer, maybe close enough for the D nominee to win.  For the record, while I consider Ducey and Brnovich to be poor public servants and simply lousy human beings, they're not batshit crazy.

The Democratic primary will be less wide open than the Republican primary but it will be more open than it would have been before Sinema left.

Ruben Gallego, current member of Congress, is the very early favorite here because he was already going to challenge Sinema in the primary when she was still a D.

Greg Stanton, current member of Congress and former mayor of Phoenix, has already made noises critical of Sinema.  From Twitter (pic taken yesterday) -

Other Ds who may be looking at the race -

Kate Gallego, current mayor of Phoenix.  Termed out and will not be in office in 2024.

Regina Romero, current mayor of Tucson.

Raquel Teran, currently in the AZ State Senate and the chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.  In AZ, it's almost a tradition that one doesn't become a state party chair without running for high office.

Kathy Hoffman. currently the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction.  She lost her re-election bid in 2022.

US Congress -

I expect that most of the current officeholders here will retain their office, but three of the Rs will be especially vulnerable - Juan Ciscomani in southern AZ and Eli Crane in Northern AZ because they will be first termers and David Schweikert because he's ethically challenged.

Also, if Ruben Gallego and/or Stanton run for the Senate, it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 (or more) of the others listed as potentially running for Senate to look at those seats instead.

Arizona Corporation Commission -

Three seats will be on the ballot.  They're currently held by D Anna Tovar and Rs Lea Marquez Peterson and Jim O'Connor.  While I expect that all of them will run for reelection I cannot and will not guess at what the primary fields will look like here.

Sinema has something to worry about, Kelly's ahead: Arizona poll day

Pointed to the Sinema stuff by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From a Data for Progress release -

Poll: Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema Set to Be Unseated by Possible Challenger Ruben Gallego in 2024 Primary Landslide

In October 2021, Data for Progress published poll findings that captured the extent of Arizona Democratic primary voters’ dissatisfaction with Senator Kyrsten Sinema: She had the highest unfavorability rating of any elected Democrat tested in the state, and she was poised to lose her 2024 primary by a wide margin.

Since then, speculation has mounted that progressive Representative Ruben Gallego, a Harvard-educated Iraq War veteran, is seriously considering a bid. Meanwhile, Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party this week for her defense of the filibuster, which came at the expense of passing popular voting rights legislation. 

Data for Progress’ initial polling found Gallego to be in the best position to beat Sinema in 2024. New Data for Progress polling finds that, since October, Sinema’s favorability has dipped even further — and that Gallego’s potential to secure a primary victory has increased.

From the full poll -

[snip]

For Senator Kyrsten Sinema, her next hurdle is going to be her 2024 primary election, where she is going to have to convince Democratic primary voters in Arizona that she deserves to keep her job. Activists who are disappointed with her obstructionism and reluctance to support President Biden’s popular agenda are already organizing to draft other high profile Arizona politicians, like Rep. Ruben Gallego, to run against her in 2024. According to our new poll of likely Arizona Democratic primary voters conducted in October, using the same methodology we used in the recent New York City mayoral primary, we find that Sen. Sinema faces a steep uphill battle to defend her record and convince voters she should stay — as negative sentiment towards her continues to grow.

[snip]

From FiveThirtyEight, also from a Data for Progress poll -

Also from Data for Progress -

Mark Kelly Narrowly Leads in Arizona 2022 General Election Matchup

In recent years, Arizona — a traditional battleground state — has trended blue. Voters elected Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly to the Senate in upset victories in 2018 and 2020, respectively, and in 2020 the state narrowly voted for Joe Biden. But amid surges in Republican voter enthusiasm and turnout, Arizona is once again poised to become a battleground. Kelly, who won his seat in a special election, is running for his first full term, and a crowded slate of Republicans are hoping to replace him. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey is term-limited and is thus not eligible to run for re-election in 2022. While he has stated he will not be joining his party’s Senate primary as recently as January 20, 2022, speculation about a possible run has mounted anyway.

New Data for Progress polling gauges the state of the 2022 midterm elections in Arizona, analyzing favorability and approval across different candidates and elected officials as well as the issues Arizona voters support. 

Yes, I do wish that Kelly was doing better (and I think he should be), but I'm torn - would he be better off facing Brnovich or Ducey?

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Sinema better have a corporate lobbying gig already lined up.

Congressmen Gallego and Stanton remember 1/6

 From KOLD -

‘My training kicked in’ – Arizona lawmakers reflect on the chaos of Jan. 6

Thursday marks one year since the attack on the U.S Capitol. As hundreds stormed the Capitol in hopes of overturning lawful election results, lawmakers inside the building were sent scrambling for safety.

It is a day now emblazoned in the minds of many Americans. Some Arizona lawmakers say that day one year ago brings back memories of chaos.

“My training kicked in,” said Marine-turned Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).

[snip]

Gallego’s colleague Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) was getting ready to speak in defense of Arizona’s election results that day when insurrectionists delayed proceedings. Stanton said it has been difficult to work with some of his colleagues who cast doubt on his state’s results.

“Relationships among members of Congress have been a little frayed, which means for a member like me you have to work even harder to build those relationships,” said Stanton.

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) was objecting to his state’s election results on the House floor when evacuations began. We reached out to Gosar for an interview but his office rejected our request and did not send a statement.

[snip]

Yes, I have voted for both Gallego and Stanton (don't freak out Rs, there was no fraud here - I moved in 2018).

And I don't regret voting for either one.