Monday, August 23, 2010

Primary Day is here: prediction time

Greg at Espresso Pundit went all in with his predictions, and Donna at Democratic Diva steadfastly and with dignity declined to make any predictions to avoid undermining/offending the ultimate winners in the Democratic primaries.

While I am not the "pundit" that Patterson is, neither am I as dignified as Donna (hey, I'm a Red Sox fan, and *you* try shouting "Yankees Suck!!" while maintaining proper decorum :) ).  As such, I'm going to make my own predictions.

Disclaimer:  My predictions are not an indication of a preference in Democratic primary races; in fact, I'll be predicting a winner who is other than the candidate I voted for in a couple of the races.  In addition, my predictions in Republican races are based on very distant observations, not on any knowledge of how R primary voters think.

In other words, no wagering allowed on any of this.  :)


On to the fearless predictions...

R Senate - McCain over Hayworth easily.  It may not be the blowout that it should be, but it won't be that close.

D Senate - This one is tough.  I'll go with Parraz over Glassman in a very close race.  The info about Glassman's campaign, however, may have come out too late to affect the outcome since early ballots were sent out, and returned, weeks before the info came to light.

R CD5 - Schweikert.  Far from a perfect candidate but he's run a solid primary campaign.  I think the big question is if Ward will hold on to second.  Look for Bitter Smith or Salvino to possibly sneak into the silver medal position.

R Maricopa County Attorney - Should be Romley in a cakewalk, but if Patterson is correct about this being a low turnout election (and I think he is), Montgomery could make it interesting.

R CD3 - Got no clue, other than it won't be Quayle.  Even R primary voters want more substance in a candidate.

R AG - Horne in a close one.  Thomas is just too damaged by his professional and ethical missteps.

D AG - Just a "feeling", but Rotellini seems to have the support of most of the Ds that I know.  Having said that, any of the three Ds running (Rotellini, Lujan, Rabago) would make a better AG than either Horne or Thomas.  (Of course, so would I, and my legal experience consists of serving as a juror in a Scottsdale shoplifting case...but I digress.  :) )

R Superintendent of Public Instruction - Huppenthal.  In any other state he'd have been relegated to the political scrap heap years ago, but in AZ, he's a Republican hero.  With the name recognition to go with it among R primary voters.

D Superintendent of Public Instruction - No clue, not even a "feeling".  Both Kotterman and Williams are dedicated educators and well-qualified for the position.  I just have no idea who is going to win the D nod.

D Secretary of State - Wercinski, though with Deschene's outside-of-Maricopa County contacts, he could make this one a barn burner.

R CD1, CD8, Treasurer - Don't know, don't care.  Kirkpatrick, Giffords, and Cherny will be the best choices in November, no matter who the Rs nominate in August.

R Governor (just for kicks) - Brewer.  Includimg me, there are maybe 10 people in AZ who realize that Jette is an intelligent, thoughtful candidate.  Everybody else's loss.  I wouldn't vote for him, but AZ needs more candidates like him who are less chained to an absolutist ideology and more concerned with finding real-world solutions to real-world problems.

CQPolitics has coverage here; FiveThirtyEight.com coverage here.

3 comments:

Thane Eichenauer said...

I can't bring myself to predict that Paulina Morris and Susan Bitter Smith will prevail but if they do I won't be surprised.

cpmaz said...

I don't *think* that they'll win their respective primaries, but I won't rule it out, either. One or both of them could have the best GOTV effort in their CD race, and that could make the difference.

me said...

I wish the heat would stop drying up the reason and intelligent moderate and sane voices. The times are far too dire for some of these clowns to slide into public service just because they consume a special K brand of crazy that shakes up and wakes up the rabid ward of the cuckoos' nest.

And might I just add that I personally find it disgusting that three stooges ward of candidates had their signs on my kid's school campus today. Yes. I know it's a polling place, but when two of the three voted 100% of the time to cut funding to schools AND my kid's school has an AC unit that has been limping along the first few weeks of class, I think it's a bit pompus of all of those jackasses to put their signs there. If it weren't a school, I'd be out there screaming obscenitites. Well, it's not like some of those kids aren't teaching me a new word or two. WAIT a minute! Maybe I get the KIDS to stand there and scream obscenities!