An open letter to Sen. Ruben Gallego

Rolling Stone broke some news about one of AZ's own this weekend.

From Rolling Stone -

Dem Crypto Ally Defends Fundraiser With Trump Crypto Donor

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) traveled to Pennsylvania for a town hall on Saturday to offer 

Democrats advice on how to build a bigger tent — and perhaps to drum up support for a 

potential 2028 presidential bid. 

 

When an attendee asked Gallego about a fundraiser he held 

with Marc Andreessen, a billionaire crypto investor and close ally of Donald Trump...

The rest is behind a paywall, but readers get the gist.

Dear Sen. Gallego,

Maybe you thought that people back in AZ would be distracted by Hamas' financiers offering Cheeto a $400 million bribe, and Cheeto trying to rationalize accepting it.

Maybe you thought that because it took place across the country, no one would back in AZ would notice.

We weren't distracted, and we did notice it.

You shouldn't behave like Cheeto -he's a complete skell.

You shouldn't behave like you're R-lite - they're depraved, on a good day.

You shouldn't behave like you're Sinema-lite - she defines "ethically challenged."

Before she changed her registration, and *couldn't* be part of the Democratic primary, I had already decided that if she was the Democratic nominee, I would skip the race.

That may happen when you're up for re-election, and i expect that I won't be the only person to make such a decision.

You didn't win in 2024 by much and you can't afford to lose too many voters...nor can you count on the Rs nominating someone as personally unpopular as Kari Lake.

Me

Q1 reports are in! Redux.

Last Saturday, I published a post about the campaign reports for federal candidates.

Today, it's the turn for state-level candidates.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the AZSOS before the Q1 2025 deadline (3/31/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q2 aren't covered here.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Listed dates of formation are from the AZSOS; some were formed for runs for another office.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

A "0" in an amount cell means that was what was reported; a blank means no report was filed.

Q1 reports are in!

At least they are for federal candidates, candidates for AZ offices have an extra week to file reports.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the FEC before the Q1 2025 deadline (3/31/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q2 aren't covered here.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Listed dates of formation are from the FEC.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

A "0" in an amount cell means that was what was reported; a blank means no report was filed.

No surprises here, though Aversa (CD7) was interesting - in 2024 he ran as the Green Party candidate for AZCD3; at the beginning of this month, he wanted to run as a write in candidate in the special election in FL-CD1 but was disqualified there, and now wants to run in the special election in AZ-CD7.

He can call himself a Green, but he's stridently anti-choice.

My guess: he doesn't appear on a ballot here, or loses in a big way if he does appear on one.

Cheeto is ALWAYS about the money, no matter what he says

From an email that I received today (have I mentioned that I'm on some verrryyyy interesting email lists?) -

His professed altruism didn't last long (with him, it never does).

From later (OK - it wasn't much later) in the same email -

Ummm, Cheeto's relationship with the truth is sketchy, on a good day.

"Billions"?

From the FEC summary page for the Harris for President campaign -

Hmmm...$235 million is a lot of money, but it's not "billions".  Not even close.

Whatever could be ticking off Cheeto?

Also from the FEC, this one for the Trump for President 2024 campaign.-

$235 million vs. $134 million?

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Maricopa County

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, I don't know if Q2 Money raised amounts include Q2 Loan totals as none of the listed candidates reported loans in Q2.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - State

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do  include Q2 Loan totals.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Federal

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest, though there is an exception to that (Ruben Gallego, I'm looking at you :) ).

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

Federal numbers are taken from lines 11e, 13c, and 27 of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do not include Q2 Loan totals (state-level numbers are different is this regard).

Q1 fundraising totals are in

This post only covers significant federal candidates (IMO) who submitted nominating sigs to the Arizona Secretary of State.  Some may be knocked off of a ballot due to legal challenges.

The most interesting thing was not one of the money entries, but one of the signature totals - Kari Lake secured precisely 0 of her signatures on paper.  

I admit, I don't know much about R primaries or candidates, but someone who exhibits an aversion to going door-to-door or who can't inspire volunteers to do so probably isn't going to do well. 

All money totals obtained from page 2 of the candidates' Q1 2024 filings

Lots of money will be spent on AZ's general election, though much of won't be from candidates

A lot of will come from PACs, some of them "dark money," with undisclosed sources.

And some of them will be local and not the well known (and already active) national groups that we already know about, like the DCCC, NRCC.DGA, RGA, DSCC, and NRSC (and others).  Still, whether paid for by candidates or PACs (national or local), we should expect our airwaves and mailboxes to be filled with vote for/don't vote for crap in October.

To be sure, some of these PACs will NOT be active; a lot will depend on the ability of their principals to raise money.  Also, some were formed to support/oppose a particular candidate in their primary races.  But the PACs have interesting names.

Caveat: Many names will be thrown around in this post, and I've never met any of these people in real life.  They might be decent human beings...other than for their heavy involvement in R politics.

Caveat to the caveat: Except Sean Noble.  With a track record like his, anyone who shakes his hand should probably count their fingers afterward.

Note: this list, though long, is NOT meant to be comprehensive.

Recently formed at the Maricopa County level -

Arizona Liberty Coalition                      1002272

Chair: Stewart Carlough, occupation: pilot           Treasurer: Charles Coolidge, occupation: consultant

Date formed: May 12, 2022

It's already accepted $50K from the Kendricks.

Registered with the IRS -

Sean Noble has a long and sordid history as a conduit for dark money.

Bigot with a badge Mark Lamb is involved with this one.  He's the sheriff in Pinal County; what is it about the recent sheriffs there?

The next time Ragan is an independent will be the first time.

From the website of Prosper.org -

Ragan is involved with another PAC -

Ragan is involved with a state-level committee, too -

Of course, Ragan isn't the only name common to PACs.

This looks to be a dark money group, as its address circles in on that of its donor.

Another name to keep an eye on -

An Arizona PAC not based in AZ?  Really?

To be fair, this one may not be active in the general election.  Based on their expenditures, their preferred candidate was Republican Shawnna Bolick, and as she didn't win her primary...

My "independent" crack applies here.

Another "Arizona" PAC that's not actually based in AZ.

Statewide candidate reports are in

Only candidates who have submitted signatures to be on the ballot appear here.

The numbers below are based on candidate-reported numbers only from their Q1 reports).

All candidates for Corporation Commission are running as Clean Elections candidates, though only Lauren Kuby has received CE funding so far (not to worry Republicans - I'm sure that Pinnacle West/APS will fall back on their old habits and spend lots of money to get the R candidates elected).

Two candidates for Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Democrat Kathy Hoffman and Republican Shiry Sapir,  are running as CE candidates and have received funding.

Republican Michelle Udall has yet to file a Q1 report.

Many candidates have loans to themselves; while not all such candidates are Republicans, the vast majority are, and *all* candidates who have loaned their campaigns more than $400K are.

Yee is out of the R primary race for governor

According to the stories, at least in part because of the fact that she raised significantly less money than the other R frontrunners in the race (I still think she would have lost the R contest for the nomination, but I've been wrong about R races before :) ).  There *was* a difference between her fundraising totals and those of the others, particularly Steve Gaynor, but it's not what many folks think.

From Yee's report covering 2021 -

From Gaynor's report, of the same period -

The stories like to state that Gaynor is the "money leader," but he's mostly self-funded/trying to buy the job - he injected $5 million of his own money into the campaign.

Given that the job he's seeking would pay ~$380K over 4 years, it seems like a bad investment.

In the interest of being thorough, from Kari Lake's report covering the same period -

In short, Yee seems to have made the correct decision, but not because she's behind Gaynor.

I must've kicked a puppy dog in a previous life

 or at least walked under a ladder or something.

I'm on the email list for ConservativeIntel.com, an email fundraising group (link opens to a WaPo story; WaPo is generally behind a paywall).

Whatever did I do to deserve this? :)

I know that displays of fealty to Trump may be transcendent in the GOP right now, but money still matters to Republicans.

Still, this is ridiculous and reeks of desperation.

They really need to do a better job of screening their list.

I've received solicitations for financial support for Kelli Ward (chair of the AZGOP and something of a shameless hypocrite) and the fraudit of Maricopa County votes conducted by the AZGOP,  Hillsdale College, a conservative indoctrination/fundraising operation (link opens to an article from The Atlantic, also generally behind a paywall), signing Trump's birthday card, and being on Trump's "honor roll".  Now they're using "fear of the other"', and the truth, to ask for money to help them remove Lloyd Austin, the first African-American Secretary of Defense.

Oh, and as I was composing this post, I received an email asking me to contribute some money for a chance to win a trip to Cheeto's rally in Ohio.

Spoiler alert:

Not gonna happen.