Others have covered this area already, but have tended to focus on their own CDs; the basic raw numbers from all CDs with active committees are included in this post.
Key - candidate - net contributions, individual contributions, PAC contributions, net expenditures, cash on hand. (Net contributions may not match the total of individual and PAC contributions due to refunds, candidate contributions to their own campaigns, or other reasons. Generally, any such variance isn't significant.
CD1 -
Ann Kirkpatrick (D), challenger - $328053.05, $218453.05, $109600.00, $125340.27, $668177.46
Howard Shanker (D), challenger - $33274.60, $33274.60, $0, $46603.04, $20972.36
Mary Kim Titla (D), challenger - $54104.75, $52466.36, $1638.39, $45039.94, $57385.88
Sydney Hay (R), challenger - $95033.73, $76518.73, $18515.00, $59959.65, $257408.09
Preston Korn (R), challenger - $2885.00, $2885.00, $0, $7362.48, $9173.96
CD2 -
John Thrasher (D), challenger - $8295.00, $7895.00, $0, $6599.59, $14207.90
Trent Franks (R), incumbent - $88386.00, $53261.00, $35625.00, $44885.27, $129774.83
CD3 -
Bob Lord (D), challenger - $233202.50, $161794.90, $73507.60, $158933.66, $706523.25
John Shadegg (R), incumbent - $536024.78, $421210.36, $140014.42, $121592.91, $1354246.30
The Shadegg campaign is gloating about their fundraising success during the April - June reporting period, but there's more than a little element of "whistling past the graveyard" in their press releases - Bob Lord is easily the strongest challenger, Dem or Rep, in the state and he's mounting a challenge to Shadegg that is far tougher than any challenge he's faced since entering Congress.
Note: The grand opening of the Lord campaign headquarters is this Saturday, July 19, at 4736 N. 44th St., Phoenix (just south of Camelback) from 11 a.m. - 1 p.m.
CD4 -
Ed Pastor (D), incumbent - $229493.13, $117377.88, $113515.25, $69158.20, $1428843.55
CD5 -
Harry Mitchell (D), incumbent - $335002.66, $224962.13, $113175.00, $85554.75, $1372464.22
David Schweikert (R), challenger - $162749.05, $162749.05, $0, $155851.16, $520990.10
Jim Ogsbury (R), challenger - $49783.24, $46783.24, $3000.00, $79435.55, $323442.10
Laura Knaperek (R), challenger - $34249.00, $37549.00, $0, $23200.05, $105520.79
Mark Anderson (R), challenger - $29278.14, $29278.14, $0, $25618.73, $68791.33
Susan Bitter Smith (R), challenger - $150379.51, $110603.51, $7000.00, $52363.67, $247945.89
The Republican challengers to Harry Mitchell have made some major bets on their abilities to emerge victoriously from the primary and then move on to defeat Mitchell - they've accumulated over $700K in loans and debts - Ogsbury and Schweikert at $250K each, Bitter Smith at more than $156K, and Knaperek has $50K in campaign debt. The only CD5 Rep who lists no campaign loans or obligations is Mark Anderson. In most cases, the loans/debt constitute a significant percentage (half or more) of the candidates' cash on hand totals.
Expect the following headline in mid-November - "Join the LD8 and LD17 Republicans for a joint campaign-debt retirement bake sale and car wash."
OK, OK, probably not... :))
Candie Dates (love that name!) at Sonoran Alliance has a post with some good graphs showing the CD5 challengers' financial positions.
CD6 -
Chris Gramazio (D), challenger - $3137.15, $3075.00, $0, 2539.24, $597.91
Jeff Flake (R), incumbent - $200035.00, $194835.00, $8800.00, $74097.13, $1091474.52
CD7 -
Raul Grijalva (D), incumbent - $125,398.00, $64,398.00, $61,000.00, $89,625.11, $171,043.21.
CD8 -
Gabrielle Giffords (D), incumbent - $562167.97, $381748.16, $181753.35, $156814.05, $2077845.80
Tim Bee (R), challenger - $390406.65, $307856.32, $79950.00, $229078.66, $687703.62
No reports that I could find from challengers Rebecca Schneider (D - CD6), Lee Gentry (R - CD5), Don Karg (R - CD4), or Joe Sweeney and Gene Chewning (Rs - CD7).
Withdrawn candidates - Annie Loyd (I - CD3).
Later!
Showing posts with label Ogsbury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ogsbury. Show all posts
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Rejected Campaign Slogans From CD5
Time for a couple of posts worth of smack talk...this is the gentle one. :)
BTW - this concept is shamelesslystolen borrowed from the Arizona Report...
From the trash baskets of the various Republican candidates in CD5 who are competing for the chance to take on Harry Mitchell -
Lee Gentry - "Don't think of it as zero name recognition, think of it as low negatives."
Jim Ogsbury - "The 'legislator to lobbyist' career track historically leads to corruption; going from lobbyist to legislator means the opposite, right?
Mark Anderson - " 'Really Conservative But Sane*' * = when compared to some of the other state legislators from LD18"
Susan Bitter Smith - "That Darn Ogsbury! He beat me into the race, and he beat me to that slogan!"
Laura Knaperek - "I've lost to Harry twice already and my friends lost to his son for Tempe City Council earlier this year, but I can beat him this time. I promise."
David Schweikert - "It may have been only a county gig, but at least I wasn't indicted, sued, or faced possible disbarrment because of the way that I performed my duties."
:))
BTW - this concept is shamelessly
From the trash baskets of the various Republican candidates in CD5 who are competing for the chance to take on Harry Mitchell -
Lee Gentry - "Don't think of it as zero name recognition, think of it as low negatives."
Jim Ogsbury - "The 'legislator to lobbyist' career track historically leads to corruption; going from lobbyist to legislator means the opposite, right?
Mark Anderson - " 'Really Conservative But Sane*' * = when compared to some of the other state legislators from LD18"
Susan Bitter Smith - "That Darn Ogsbury! He beat me into the race, and he beat me to that slogan!"
Laura Knaperek - "I've lost to Harry twice already and my friends lost to his son for Tempe City Council earlier this year, but I can beat him this time. I promise."
David Schweikert - "It may have been only a county gig, but at least I wasn't indicted, sued, or faced possible disbarrment because of the way that I performed my duties."
:))
Friday, May 30, 2008
Press Release Of The Day - AZ5 Edition
Well, it's an even-numbered year, and Memorial Day has come and gone, so that means that gas prices are going ever higher, Arizona temperatures are racing to catch up to gas prices, and campaigns are pumping out election year attack press releases.
Of those three sure signs of summer's arrival, campaign press releases are the most fun - they can be counted on to make creative use of misinformation, incomplete information, out-of-context quotes, misleading statistics, and outright lies.
All of which is perfect fodder for a snarky but enterprising blogger. :)
The Ogsbury for Congress campaign in CD5 is taking shots at Harry Mitchell in this press release, trying to say that Harry Mitchell is out of step with his district because he has voted with the Democratic caucus 88.8% of the time (according to the Washington Post).
What the press release neglected to mention is that of the 240 Democratic members tracked, the average adherence to the Democratic position was 92.2%.
So Mitchell was far above average in straying from his party's line; in fact, only 11 other Democrats voted the party line less frequently.
That covers "incomplete information," "misinformation," and "misleading statistics" in one fell swoop.
As for the "outright lies", the Ogsbury release talked about Mitchell's "strident opposition to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA)."
OK, this one I didn't even need to look up.
Last August, the House passed S. 1927, The Protect America Act (aka - FISA modernization). The bill gave George Bush and then-Attorney General Gonzales the authority to, virtually without oversight, wiretap and otherwise electronically eavesdrop on foreign terror suspects' communications and any Americans suspected of being associated with them.
41 Democrats, including Harry Mitchell, crossed over and voted with the Republicans.
While I've disagreed with Harry on many of his votes, this one remains the only one that I was truly upset about.
As such, I remember it *very* well.
In this regard, Ogsbury's statement that Mitchell opposes FISA, "stridently" or otherwise, is utterly false.
About the best thing that can be said about Ogsbury's press release is that it didn't use an out-of-context quote from Harry Mitchell.
Republicans shouldn't worry, however - summer is just getting started and campaign season, like Arizona, is just warming up. There's plenty of time to get his fear, smear, and lie machine fully up to speed.
Less snarky analysis of the Ogsbury press release from PolitickerAZ here.
Later!
Of those three sure signs of summer's arrival, campaign press releases are the most fun - they can be counted on to make creative use of misinformation, incomplete information, out-of-context quotes, misleading statistics, and outright lies.
All of which is perfect fodder for a snarky but enterprising blogger. :)
The Ogsbury for Congress campaign in CD5 is taking shots at Harry Mitchell in this press release, trying to say that Harry Mitchell is out of step with his district because he has voted with the Democratic caucus 88.8% of the time (according to the Washington Post).
What the press release neglected to mention is that of the 240 Democratic members tracked, the average adherence to the Democratic position was 92.2%.
So Mitchell was far above average in straying from his party's line; in fact, only 11 other Democrats voted the party line less frequently.
That covers "incomplete information," "misinformation," and "misleading statistics" in one fell swoop.
As for the "outright lies", the Ogsbury release talked about Mitchell's "strident opposition to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA)."
OK, this one I didn't even need to look up.
Last August, the House passed S. 1927, The Protect America Act (aka - FISA modernization). The bill gave George Bush and then-Attorney General Gonzales the authority to, virtually without oversight, wiretap and otherwise electronically eavesdrop on foreign terror suspects' communications and any Americans suspected of being associated with them.
41 Democrats, including Harry Mitchell, crossed over and voted with the Republicans.
While I've disagreed with Harry on many of his votes, this one remains the only one that I was truly upset about.
As such, I remember it *very* well.
In this regard, Ogsbury's statement that Mitchell opposes FISA, "stridently" or otherwise, is utterly false.
About the best thing that can be said about Ogsbury's press release is that it didn't use an out-of-context quote from Harry Mitchell.
Republicans shouldn't worry, however - summer is just getting started and campaign season, like Arizona, is just warming up. There's plenty of time to get his fear, smear, and lie machine fully up to speed.
Less snarky analysis of the Ogsbury press release from PolitickerAZ here.
Later!
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Mitchell leads main Republican rivals in latest poll
PolitickerAZ has the results of a recent CD5 poll comparing Congressman Harry Mitchell to two of the Republican candidates trying to unseat him, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert and former state representative Laura Knaperek.
(Marty at Wactivist.com and Zelph at AZNetRoots already have their takes on the info, at the links)
According to the PolitickerAZ story, in head-to-head matchups, Mitchell leads Schweikert by a 50% to 23% margin and Knaperek by 49% to 26%.
This is great news for Mitchell and his supporters because while this year shapes up to be a horrible year for Republicans in general, they still have a serious registration advantage in CD5 (42% - 28%). For this cycle and the next (2010) CD5 is going to be a tough test for any Democrat, even Harry Mitchell.
In 2012, the effects of redistricting should be felt, but God only knows what those are going to be (and God won't know what those are until the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission tells Him what they are :) ).
Until then, however, CD5 is going to be a tempting target for every Republican who's ever run a campaign (or, like Jim Ogsbury, who's ever just given money to a campaign.)
As for this year's campaign, in Marty's post over at Wactivist, he opines that Laura Knaperek may be the Reps' best hope to defeat Mitchell, but I'm not sure I agree.
She *does* have the organization and the experience to run an effective general election campaign, a fact that CD5 Republican primary voters will remember, but she also has experience in running campaigns that were defeated by Harry Mitchell.
Another fact that primary voters will be sure to remember.
She also has high negatives, in that she is part of the radical right wing segment of her party, and while there are a lot of Republicans in CD5, they tend to be part of the "Chamber of Commerce" wing.
She's probably not getting out of the primary, though with her experience and focus (OK, it's less 'focus' and more 'obsession' on Harry Mitchell) she will make a fight of it.
David Schweikert may not have raised as much money as the RNCC poo-bahs would prefer, he still presents the lower negatives of the two - he's as reliably conservative as Knaperek but hasn't ticked off as many people over the years as she has (her habit of throwing ballot-mates in legislative races under the bus at the earliest opportunity could come back to haunt her.)
And Jim Ogsbury and Mark Anderson? Professional lobbyist Ogsbury has serious name rec problems in the district, as does Mesa state rep Anderson. In addition, Anderson is running on a platform that includes the planks that Congress "has too much partisan bickering" and "too many scandals."
Somebody should remind him that it's not 2006 and he's not running against JD Hayworth.
Anyway, I haven't seen anything that indicates that Anderson or Ogsbury have a real chance to win this year's CD5 Republican primary.
The American Hospital Association, the sponsor of the poll, apparently agree with me - their poll didn't include either Ogsbury or Anderson.
Later!
(Marty at Wactivist.com and Zelph at AZNetRoots already have their takes on the info, at the links)
According to the PolitickerAZ story, in head-to-head matchups, Mitchell leads Schweikert by a 50% to 23% margin and Knaperek by 49% to 26%.
This is great news for Mitchell and his supporters because while this year shapes up to be a horrible year for Republicans in general, they still have a serious registration advantage in CD5 (42% - 28%). For this cycle and the next (2010) CD5 is going to be a tough test for any Democrat, even Harry Mitchell.
In 2012, the effects of redistricting should be felt, but God only knows what those are going to be (and God won't know what those are until the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission tells Him what they are :) ).
Until then, however, CD5 is going to be a tempting target for every Republican who's ever run a campaign (or, like Jim Ogsbury, who's ever just given money to a campaign.)
As for this year's campaign, in Marty's post over at Wactivist, he opines that Laura Knaperek may be the Reps' best hope to defeat Mitchell, but I'm not sure I agree.
She *does* have the organization and the experience to run an effective general election campaign, a fact that CD5 Republican primary voters will remember, but she also has experience in running campaigns that were defeated by Harry Mitchell.
Another fact that primary voters will be sure to remember.
She also has high negatives, in that she is part of the radical right wing segment of her party, and while there are a lot of Republicans in CD5, they tend to be part of the "Chamber of Commerce" wing.
She's probably not getting out of the primary, though with her experience and focus (OK, it's less 'focus' and more 'obsession' on Harry Mitchell) she will make a fight of it.
David Schweikert may not have raised as much money as the RNCC poo-bahs would prefer, he still presents the lower negatives of the two - he's as reliably conservative as Knaperek but hasn't ticked off as many people over the years as she has (her habit of throwing ballot-mates in legislative races under the bus at the earliest opportunity could come back to haunt her.)
And Jim Ogsbury and Mark Anderson? Professional lobbyist Ogsbury has serious name rec problems in the district, as does Mesa state rep Anderson. In addition, Anderson is running on a platform that includes the planks that Congress "has too much partisan bickering" and "too many scandals."
Somebody should remind him that it's not 2006 and he's not running against JD Hayworth.
Anyway, I haven't seen anything that indicates that Anderson or Ogsbury have a real chance to win this year's CD5 Republican primary.
The American Hospital Association, the sponsor of the poll, apparently agree with me - their poll didn't include either Ogsbury or Anderson.
Later!
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Quarterly FEC Reports Are Pouring In...
They're not all into the FEC yet, so I'll update over the next few days.
The quarterly numbers so far -
CD1 (open seat)
Shanker (D) (challenger) - Total raised $33,688.73; $31,354.75 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $34,320.21 cash on hand. Note: Shanker's committee has $9,367.88 in outstanding debt (credit card statement).
Hay (R) (challenger) - Total raised $98,618.19; $88,118.19 from individuals; $10,500.00 from PACs; $222,334.01 cash on hand. Note: Hay's committee has $70K in outstanding debt (loans by the candidate).
Kirkpatrick (D) (challenger) - Total raised $257,400.17; $194,650.17 from individuals; $62,250.00 from PACs; $465,464.68 cash on hand. Note: Kirkpatrick's committee has $20K in outstanding debt (loan).
Riley (D) (challenger) - Total raised $15,825.00; $15,825.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $216,165.31 cash on hand. Note: Riley's committee has $205K in outstanding debt (candidate loan). Note2: According to PolitickerAZ, Riley has dropped out of the race.
Titla (D) (challenger) - Total raised $39,114.05; $39,114.05 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $48,321.07 cash on hand.
Korn (R) (challenger) - Total raised $14,567.00; $12,266.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $10,494.16 cash on hand. Note: Korn's committee has $3,185.36 in outstanding debt (candidate loan and credit card).
Renzi (R) (outgoing incumbent) - $0 raised; $3966.46 cash on hand; $456,073.37 in outstanding debt (legal fees, candidate loans).
CD1 note: According to Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, rumored Republican candidate Ken Bennett has chosen (again!) to pass on the CD1 race.
CD2
Franks (R) (incumbent) - $88,386.00 total raised; $53,261.00 from individuals; $35,625.00 from PACs; 129,774.83 cash on hand. Note: Franks' committee owes $304,100 in outstanding debt (candidate loan).
Thrasher (D) (challenger) - Total raised $3,023.50; $3,023.50 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $12,512.49 cash on hand.
CD3
Lord (D) (challenger) - Total raised $220,166.47; $163,116.47 from individuals; $51,550.00 from PACs; $632,485.41 cash on hand.
Shadegg (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $150,716.41; $163,516.41 from individuals; $47,000.00 from PACs; $937,672.59 cash on hand. Note: The reason that the total raised is less than the combined totals of individual and PAC contributions is that Shadegg's committee refunded nearly $60K in contributions.
Annie Loyd (I) (challenger) - Quarterly report not posted yet.
Shadegg's flirtation with retirement may have cost him some contributions - Shadegg outraised the incumbent, even when ignoring the refunds (which included a refund of $10K in illegal contributions from his own PAC.)
From a Lord press release -
CD4
Pastor (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $260,827.71; $164,020.98 from individuals; $96,306.73 from PACs; $1,266,599.90 cash on hand.
CD5
Mitchell (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $321,160.18; $209,028.59 from individuals; $112,110.00 from PACs; $1,121,680.84 cash on hand.
Schweikert (R) (challenger) - Total raised $175,210.23; $171,941.95 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $514,092.21 cash on hand. Note: Schweikert's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).
Ogsbury (R) (challenger) - Total raised 40,421.17; $37,921.17 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $353,094.41 cash on hand. Note: Ogsbury's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).
Hatch-Miller (R) (committee terminated) - Owes $17K; cash on hand $245.20.
Knaperek (R) (challenger) - $49,618.00 total raised; $49,518.00 from individuals; $100 from PACs; $44,471.84 cash on hand.
Anderson (R) (challenger) - $55,115.00 total raised; $55,115.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $69,985.52 cash on hand.
CD5 Notes: Susan Bitter Smith (R) is still 'exploring', but given the facts that the signature deadline is fast approaching (early June) and that her name is dirt with many of Scottsdale's grassroots Republicans (see: Hanover Project, The), my guess is that she isn't going to jump into the race.
Oh yeah - that Schweikert guy has the money race locked up, if not the balloting race. I don't know what the polling numbers among CD5 Republicans looks like, but Schweikert looks like the frontrunner based on contributions from individuals.
Oh yeah2 - Mitchell has more cash on hand that all of his Republican challengers combined. Mitchell still faces a Republican registration advantage in his district, but he is well-positioned to face whichever Rep makes it out of the primary.
CD6
Flake (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $58,342.00; $52,742.00 from individuals; $6,000.00 from PACs; $974,536.74 cash on hand.
CD7
Grijalva (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $91,312.93; $54,296 from individuals; $37,010.00 from PACs; $139,670.64 cash on hand.
CD8
Giffords (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $466,786.20; $333,616.20 from individuals; $138,070.00 from PACs; $1,672,821.88 cash on hand.
Bee (R) (challenger) - Total raised $466,092.60; $406,992.60 from individuals; $40,000 from PACs; $525,439.88 cash on hand.
The quarterly numbers so far -
CD1 (open seat)
Shanker (D) (challenger) - Total raised $33,688.73; $31,354.75 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $34,320.21 cash on hand. Note: Shanker's committee has $9,367.88 in outstanding debt (credit card statement).
Hay (R) (challenger) - Total raised $98,618.19; $88,118.19 from individuals; $10,500.00 from PACs; $222,334.01 cash on hand. Note: Hay's committee has $70K in outstanding debt (loans by the candidate).
Kirkpatrick (D) (challenger) - Total raised $257,400.17; $194,650.17 from individuals; $62,250.00 from PACs; $465,464.68 cash on hand. Note: Kirkpatrick's committee has $20K in outstanding debt (loan).
Riley (D) (challenger) - Total raised $15,825.00; $15,825.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $216,165.31 cash on hand. Note: Riley's committee has $205K in outstanding debt (candidate loan). Note2: According to PolitickerAZ, Riley has dropped out of the race.
Titla (D) (challenger) - Total raised $39,114.05; $39,114.05 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $48,321.07 cash on hand.
Korn (R) (challenger) - Total raised $14,567.00; $12,266.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $10,494.16 cash on hand. Note: Korn's committee has $3,185.36 in outstanding debt (candidate loan and credit card).
Renzi (R) (outgoing incumbent) - $0 raised; $3966.46 cash on hand; $456,073.37 in outstanding debt (legal fees, candidate loans).
CD1 note: According to Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, rumored Republican candidate Ken Bennett has chosen (again!) to pass on the CD1 race.
CD2
Franks (R) (incumbent) - $88,386.00 total raised; $53,261.00 from individuals; $35,625.00 from PACs; 129,774.83 cash on hand. Note: Franks' committee owes $304,100 in outstanding debt (candidate loan).
Thrasher (D) (challenger) - Total raised $3,023.50; $3,023.50 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $12,512.49 cash on hand.
CD3
Lord (D) (challenger) - Total raised $220,166.47; $163,116.47 from individuals; $51,550.00 from PACs; $632,485.41 cash on hand.
Shadegg (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $150,716.41; $163,516.41 from individuals; $47,000.00 from PACs; $937,672.59 cash on hand. Note: The reason that the total raised is less than the combined totals of individual and PAC contributions is that Shadegg's committee refunded nearly $60K in contributions.
Annie Loyd (I) (challenger) - Quarterly report not posted yet.
Shadegg's flirtation with retirement may have cost him some contributions - Shadegg outraised the incumbent, even when ignoring the refunds (which included a refund of $10K in illegal contributions from his own PAC.)
From a Lord press release -
“We could not have come this far or raised this much without the support of the over 1,000 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who have contributed to my campaign,” Lord said. “I’d like to thank everyone for their continued support. We will change Washington – together.”
CD4
Pastor (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $260,827.71; $164,020.98 from individuals; $96,306.73 from PACs; $1,266,599.90 cash on hand.
CD5
Mitchell (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $321,160.18; $209,028.59 from individuals; $112,110.00 from PACs; $1,121,680.84 cash on hand.
Schweikert (R) (challenger) - Total raised $175,210.23; $171,941.95 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $514,092.21 cash on hand. Note: Schweikert's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).
Ogsbury (R) (challenger) - Total raised 40,421.17; $37,921.17 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $353,094.41 cash on hand. Note: Ogsbury's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).
Hatch-Miller (R) (committee terminated) - Owes $17K; cash on hand $245.20.
Knaperek (R) (challenger) - $49,618.00 total raised; $49,518.00 from individuals; $100 from PACs; $44,471.84 cash on hand.
Anderson (R) (challenger) - $55,115.00 total raised; $55,115.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $69,985.52 cash on hand.
CD5 Notes: Susan Bitter Smith (R) is still 'exploring', but given the facts that the signature deadline is fast approaching (early June) and that her name is dirt with many of Scottsdale's grassroots Republicans (see: Hanover Project, The), my guess is that she isn't going to jump into the race.
Oh yeah - that Schweikert guy has the money race locked up, if not the balloting race. I don't know what the polling numbers among CD5 Republicans looks like, but Schweikert looks like the frontrunner based on contributions from individuals.
Oh yeah2 - Mitchell has more cash on hand that all of his Republican challengers combined. Mitchell still faces a Republican registration advantage in his district, but he is well-positioned to face whichever Rep makes it out of the primary.
CD6
Flake (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $58,342.00; $52,742.00 from individuals; $6,000.00 from PACs; $974,536.74 cash on hand.
CD7
Grijalva (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $91,312.93; $54,296 from individuals; $37,010.00 from PACs; $139,670.64 cash on hand.
CD8
Giffords (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $466,786.20; $333,616.20 from individuals; $138,070.00 from PACs; $1,672,821.88 cash on hand.
Bee (R) (challenger) - Total raised $466,092.60; $406,992.60 from individuals; $40,000 from PACs; $525,439.88 cash on hand.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
FEC reports are in
Edit to update: Turns out that Bob Lord's (D-CD3) financial report is up; I just missed it. I've updated the appropriate section of the post. Thanks to Drew for the comment...
End edit.
It's that time again - time for a quick summary of fundraising results for the various Congressional campaigns in AZ.
Key - Total raised, $ from individual donors, $ from PACs and committees, Cash on hand, and (where applicable) debts or loans.
I'll comment between CDs.
CD1
Kirkpatrick (D) $186108.71, 166108.71, 24000, 292867.66, 20000 loan
Renzi (R) $0, 0, 0, 1786.60, 456058.23 debt
Hay (R) $41822.32, 23935.92, 17886.40, 155727.77, 20000 loan
Shanker (D) $17517.18, 17517.18, 0, 4069.89
No info as yet from Mary Kim Titla (D) or a Democratic candidate that I've never heard of but who has filed organization paperwork, Jeffrey Brown. He's serious enough to have a real, though under construction, website, so I'll mention him here.
It's early still, but pending the still only rumored entries of other Republicans into the contest, right now the race is shaping up to be between industry lobbyist Hay for the Rs and DCCC-annointed Kirkpatrick for the Ds. Their early money and organizations will be tough to beat.
CD2
Franks (R) $72691, 42191, 30500, 86274.1
Thrasher (D) $8543, 8543, 0, 10693.56
Nothing too surprising here; while Franks is beatable, Thrasher needs support to do it. Surf to his website to volunteer or contribute.
CD3
Shadegg (R) $494544.92, 362794.92, 131750, 863636.22
Loyd (I) $14226.55, 0, 14226.55. 8884.33
Lord (D) $211071.23, 187821.23, 18250.00, 503182.54
Something tells me that Shadegg didn't raise half-a-million dollars in what is traditionally the slowest fundraising quarter of the year in response to Annie Loyd's $14K. While Shadegg has, and is expected to maintain, a fundraising advantage (incumbents usually do), he's in the race of his political life. Perhaps his efforts on behalf of John McCain's presidential campaign have an ulterior motive - he realizes that he benefits with McCain at the top of the ballot in November. McCain's presence, while it may not help Rep candidates nationwide, should fuel increased Rep voter turnout here in AZ.
Shadegg should keep something in mind as the campaign unfolds - by sacrificing his constituents and constituent services to campaign for McCain, he could cost himself more votes than he gains with McCain at the top of the ballot.
CD4
Pastor (D) $80125.63, 38120, 42005.63. 1222975.39
$1.2 million CoH and no opponent (as yet, anyway)? Pastor should expect lots of pressure to help out other Democratic candidates this summer.
CD5
Hayworth (R) $-2200, 0, 0, 15310.3
Mitchell (D) $210680, 137255, 71800, 868883.55
Ogsbury (R) $34880, 33380, 1500, 349191.47
Schweikert (R) $505,993, 246393.51, 9600, 412030.69, 250000 loan
Hatch-Miller (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.
Anderson (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.
Knaperek (R) $19948.54, 19948.54, 0, 27356.99
Even without the quarter million dollar loan, Schweikert is the one to beat (money-wise, anyway) in the Rep primary here, though Knaperek and Anderson are veteran campaigners and will know how to use their more limited funds to good effect.
Note: Telecom/cable industry lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith has said that she will make her run/don't run decision sometime after Super Tuesday. As of tonight, no paperwork for her, organizational or financial reporting, has been posted by the FEC.
CD6
Flake $305414.48, 258613.52, 46800.96, 999110.50
Richard Grayson is running a (self-admittedly) quixotic challenge to Flake, but that million dollars CoH of Flake's isn't aimed at him, it was aimed straight as erstwhile primary challenger Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance).
Pearce has recently set his sights somewhat lower - convincing LD18 State Senator Karen Johnson (R-UFO) to step aside and not run for reelection.
Pearce will face Democrat Judah Nativio for the seat.
CD7
Grijalva (D) $40475, 7975, 32500, 99351.11
The Reps are sure to run someone against Congressman Grijalva (they always do), but unless I miss my guess, Grijalva's organization will expend more effort on rounding up votes for presidential candidate Barack Obama than they'll have to expend on rounding up votes for Raul.
CD8
Bee (R) $151074.24, 141324.24, 9750, 161246.04
Giffords (D) $272253.88, 161209.45, 111044.43, 1317357.30
Unless Tim Bee can pull of a miracle dealing with the state's budget deficit, he may come to regret not resigning his seat in the Arizona State Senate. Giffords has an almost 9-to-1 CoH advantage, and Bee is stuck in Phoenix most of the week.
If he leaves the Senate now, he'll get roundly criticized for abandoning his constituents (something that a candidate for another office doesn't want to deal with); if he doesn't leave, his campaign can't get up to full speed until June or July, by which time, Giffords could have a 20:1 money advantage.
PolitickerAZ has a report on the numbers as well, and they have most of the duelling press releases that accompany the releases of fundraising numbers on the main site.
Later!
End edit.
It's that time again - time for a quick summary of fundraising results for the various Congressional campaigns in AZ.
Key - Total raised, $ from individual donors, $ from PACs and committees, Cash on hand, and (where applicable) debts or loans.
I'll comment between CDs.
CD1
Kirkpatrick (D) $186108.71, 166108.71, 24000, 292867.66, 20000 loan
Renzi (R) $0, 0, 0, 1786.60, 456058.23 debt
Hay (R) $41822.32, 23935.92, 17886.40, 155727.77, 20000 loan
Shanker (D) $17517.18, 17517.18, 0, 4069.89
No info as yet from Mary Kim Titla (D) or a Democratic candidate that I've never heard of but who has filed organization paperwork, Jeffrey Brown. He's serious enough to have a real, though under construction, website, so I'll mention him here.
It's early still, but pending the still only rumored entries of other Republicans into the contest, right now the race is shaping up to be between industry lobbyist Hay for the Rs and DCCC-annointed Kirkpatrick for the Ds. Their early money and organizations will be tough to beat.
CD2
Franks (R) $72691, 42191, 30500, 86274.1
Thrasher (D) $8543, 8543, 0, 10693.56
Nothing too surprising here; while Franks is beatable, Thrasher needs support to do it. Surf to his website to volunteer or contribute.
CD3
Shadegg (R) $494544.92, 362794.92, 131750, 863636.22
Loyd (I) $14226.55, 0, 14226.55. 8884.33
Lord (D) $211071.23, 187821.23, 18250.00, 503182.54
Something tells me that Shadegg didn't raise half-a-million dollars in what is traditionally the slowest fundraising quarter of the year in response to Annie Loyd's $14K. While Shadegg has, and is expected to maintain, a fundraising advantage (incumbents usually do), he's in the race of his political life. Perhaps his efforts on behalf of John McCain's presidential campaign have an ulterior motive - he realizes that he benefits with McCain at the top of the ballot in November. McCain's presence, while it may not help Rep candidates nationwide, should fuel increased Rep voter turnout here in AZ.
Shadegg should keep something in mind as the campaign unfolds - by sacrificing his constituents and constituent services to campaign for McCain, he could cost himself more votes than he gains with McCain at the top of the ballot.
CD4
Pastor (D) $80125.63, 38120, 42005.63. 1222975.39
$1.2 million CoH and no opponent (as yet, anyway)? Pastor should expect lots of pressure to help out other Democratic candidates this summer.
CD5
Hayworth (R) $-2200, 0, 0, 15310.3
Mitchell (D) $210680, 137255, 71800, 868883.55
Ogsbury (R) $34880, 33380, 1500, 349191.47
Schweikert (R) $505,993, 246393.51, 9600, 412030.69, 250000 loan
Hatch-Miller (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.
Anderson (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.
Knaperek (R) $19948.54, 19948.54, 0, 27356.99
Even without the quarter million dollar loan, Schweikert is the one to beat (money-wise, anyway) in the Rep primary here, though Knaperek and Anderson are veteran campaigners and will know how to use their more limited funds to good effect.
Note: Telecom/cable industry lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith has said that she will make her run/don't run decision sometime after Super Tuesday. As of tonight, no paperwork for her, organizational or financial reporting, has been posted by the FEC.
CD6
Flake $305414.48, 258613.52, 46800.96, 999110.50
Richard Grayson is running a (self-admittedly) quixotic challenge to Flake, but that million dollars CoH of Flake's isn't aimed at him, it was aimed straight as erstwhile primary challenger Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance).
Pearce has recently set his sights somewhat lower - convincing LD18 State Senator Karen Johnson (R-UFO) to step aside and not run for reelection.
Pearce will face Democrat Judah Nativio for the seat.
CD7
Grijalva (D) $40475, 7975, 32500, 99351.11
The Reps are sure to run someone against Congressman Grijalva (they always do), but unless I miss my guess, Grijalva's organization will expend more effort on rounding up votes for presidential candidate Barack Obama than they'll have to expend on rounding up votes for Raul.
CD8
Bee (R) $151074.24, 141324.24, 9750, 161246.04
Giffords (D) $272253.88, 161209.45, 111044.43, 1317357.30
Unless Tim Bee can pull of a miracle dealing with the state's budget deficit, he may come to regret not resigning his seat in the Arizona State Senate. Giffords has an almost 9-to-1 CoH advantage, and Bee is stuck in Phoenix most of the week.
If he leaves the Senate now, he'll get roundly criticized for abandoning his constituents (something that a candidate for another office doesn't want to deal with); if he doesn't leave, his campaign can't get up to full speed until June or July, by which time, Giffords could have a 20:1 money advantage.
PolitickerAZ has a report on the numbers as well, and they have most of the duelling press releases that accompany the releases of fundraising numbers on the main site.
Later!
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Short Attention Span Musing - campaigns edition
...Well, in a shock to the MSM, but not to anyone else, both parties' races for the Presidential nomination are wide open right now. Pundits are trying to spin Tuesday's results from New Hampshire as a "major" Clinton victory and a serious blow to Obama's White House aspirations.
Of course, a few days before the NH primary, those same pundits had pronounced the Clinton candidacy DOA and were writing Obama's inaugural speech.
Things aren't much clearer on the Republican side, with McCain newly-reannointed as the frontrunner after winning in New Hampshire.
Of course, he won in NH in 2000.
In other words - it's not over.
...As in Iowa, the most disappointed candidate coming out of the New Hampshire primary has to be Mitt Romney. In addition to the vast amounts of money that he spent here and the hundred-something campaign events, he had home-field advantage - not only was he the governor right across the border, he even has a vacation home there.
He was practically a resident, and still couldn't win there.
His candidacy is definitely in trouble; on the other hand, he hasn't exactly been trounced in Iowa or New Hampshire, and he still has oodles of money.
Next week's primary in Michigan is his last stand. He has to win in his home state (his father was governor there for a while), otherwise his candidacy will lose whatever momentum and support it has left.
...The phrase "It's not over" may not apply to Fred Thompson. At 1% in New Hampshire, he has rapidly gone from "Republican savior" to "Are his SAG dues up to date?" He may try to stay in through South Carolina, but he's done.
...Michigan could cause a big headache for the Democratc Party leadership. It was stripped of its delegates as a penalty for holding its primary before February 5. Hence, most Democratic candidates aren't on the ballot there.
In fact, there are only four candidates, and one of them, Sen. Christopher Dodd, has already dropped out. In fact, the only major candidate on the ballot there is Hillary Clinton, and there lies the problem.
There have been strong rumors that Michigan would have some or all of it 156 delegates restored, rumors that weren't discounted by a highly connected former DNC member at last night's D17 meeting.
If that comes to pass, and the race is close enough for Michigan's delegates to make a difference in the nomination, expect some justified howls of outrage from the non-Clinton campaigns (and from Democrats everywhere) at changing the nomination rules after the fact.
It would look like 'insiders' protecting one of their own, which brings up another point.
Another possibility that the 'powers-that-be' of the national party would have to consider is that even the appearance of inappropriate activity regarding the nomination could give the Republicans the kind of issue that they could use to pry Independent voters away from the Democrats.
I honestly don't think that they really *want* to restore Michigan's delegates, but the longer the race for the nomination stays a race, the more pressureto do so will be brought to bear by certain elements within the Party.
Best scenario for the Democratic leadership: the eventual nominee pulls away before any decision is made regarding Michigan, so that a restoration of its delegates doesn't make any difference.
...In disappointing news, for me, anyway, Governor Bill Richardson is apparently dropping out of the race. While he is far and away the best-qualified and best-suited candidate for the job, he doesn't have the 'rock star' qualities of Obama or Clinton (or even Edwards.) Therefore, he hasn't gained much traction with voters.
Our loss.
Note to the eventual nominee: consider Richardson for the VP slot on the ticket or for the Secretary of State job in your administration. It'll be the best appointment you could make.
...Matt Benson of the AZ Rep's Plugged In has a report that Governor Napolitano "may" endorse a candidate prior to the Presidential primary.
She shouldn't - either she'll have to work with the eventual nominee as Governor, or she'll work for the eventual nominee in his/her cabinet.
Doing anything more than helping the eventual nominee in the general election campaign does nothing for her or for Arizona.
CD5 race news -
...According to PolitickerAZ.com (a relatively new site, so I can't vouch for its accuracy yet. It seems to be pretty decent, though.), Susan Bitter Smith, a possible candidate for the Rep nomination to challenge Harry Mitchell, is waiting until February 5th to decide whether or not to enter the race.
Her stated reason for waiting?
Well, at least she's consistent; once a corporate tool, always a corporate tool. Her public disdain of Huckabee, the least corporate of the Republican candidates, clearly indicates where her true loyalties lie.
Bottom line - she's not running to represent the residents of CD5.
...In other news from PolitickerAZ, Jeff Hatch-Miller, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, will be entering the CD5 race, joining Jim Ogsbury, Laura Knaperek, Mark Anderson, and David Schweikert (and possibly the aforementioned Bitter Smith) in the race for the Rep nomination.
He's termed out at the ACC, and as no statewide offices are up this year, it's a run for Congress or two years of toiling in the private sector for him. The field is crowded, but his connections should generate enough in contributions to make him viable in the primary.
Later!
Of course, a few days before the NH primary, those same pundits had pronounced the Clinton candidacy DOA and were writing Obama's inaugural speech.
Things aren't much clearer on the Republican side, with McCain newly-reannointed as the frontrunner after winning in New Hampshire.
Of course, he won in NH in 2000.
In other words - it's not over.
...As in Iowa, the most disappointed candidate coming out of the New Hampshire primary has to be Mitt Romney. In addition to the vast amounts of money that he spent here and the hundred-something campaign events, he had home-field advantage - not only was he the governor right across the border, he even has a vacation home there.
He was practically a resident, and still couldn't win there.
His candidacy is definitely in trouble; on the other hand, he hasn't exactly been trounced in Iowa or New Hampshire, and he still has oodles of money.
Next week's primary in Michigan is his last stand. He has to win in his home state (his father was governor there for a while), otherwise his candidacy will lose whatever momentum and support it has left.
...The phrase "It's not over" may not apply to Fred Thompson. At 1% in New Hampshire, he has rapidly gone from "Republican savior" to "Are his SAG dues up to date?" He may try to stay in through South Carolina, but he's done.
...Michigan could cause a big headache for the Democratc Party leadership. It was stripped of its delegates as a penalty for holding its primary before February 5. Hence, most Democratic candidates aren't on the ballot there.
In fact, there are only four candidates, and one of them, Sen. Christopher Dodd, has already dropped out. In fact, the only major candidate on the ballot there is Hillary Clinton, and there lies the problem.
There have been strong rumors that Michigan would have some or all of it 156 delegates restored, rumors that weren't discounted by a highly connected former DNC member at last night's D17 meeting.
If that comes to pass, and the race is close enough for Michigan's delegates to make a difference in the nomination, expect some justified howls of outrage from the non-Clinton campaigns (and from Democrats everywhere) at changing the nomination rules after the fact.
It would look like 'insiders' protecting one of their own, which brings up another point.
Another possibility that the 'powers-that-be' of the national party would have to consider is that even the appearance of inappropriate activity regarding the nomination could give the Republicans the kind of issue that they could use to pry Independent voters away from the Democrats.
I honestly don't think that they really *want* to restore Michigan's delegates, but the longer the race for the nomination stays a race, the more pressureto do so will be brought to bear by certain elements within the Party.
Best scenario for the Democratic leadership: the eventual nominee pulls away before any decision is made regarding Michigan, so that a restoration of its delegates doesn't make any difference.
...In disappointing news, for me, anyway, Governor Bill Richardson is apparently dropping out of the race. While he is far and away the best-qualified and best-suited candidate for the job, he doesn't have the 'rock star' qualities of Obama or Clinton (or even Edwards.) Therefore, he hasn't gained much traction with voters.
Our loss.
Note to the eventual nominee: consider Richardson for the VP slot on the ticket or for the Secretary of State job in your administration. It'll be the best appointment you could make.
...Matt Benson of the AZ Rep's Plugged In has a report that Governor Napolitano "may" endorse a candidate prior to the Presidential primary.
She shouldn't - either she'll have to work with the eventual nominee as Governor, or she'll work for the eventual nominee in his/her cabinet.
Doing anything more than helping the eventual nominee in the general election campaign does nothing for her or for Arizona.
CD5 race news -
...According to PolitickerAZ.com (a relatively new site, so I can't vouch for its accuracy yet. It seems to be pretty decent, though.), Susan Bitter Smith, a possible candidate for the Rep nomination to challenge Harry Mitchell, is waiting until February 5th to decide whether or not to enter the race.
Her stated reason for waiting?
Bitter Smith, the Executive Director of the Arizona Cable Television Communications Association, says that her decision depends on what happens on February 5 – the day Arizonans go to the polls to participate in the state’s presidential primary. She said that a strong Republican turnout would be encouraging.Not really news that; rumors about a possible run have been swirling for months. What is interesting is the rest of the quote from the article -
Bitter Smith also said she was looking for a “strong Republican” to head up the Party ticket in November.
When asked which candidate she preferred, she laughed. “McCain, Rudy (Giuliani), Romney,” she said.
Well, at least she's consistent; once a corporate tool, always a corporate tool. Her public disdain of Huckabee, the least corporate of the Republican candidates, clearly indicates where her true loyalties lie.
Bottom line - she's not running to represent the residents of CD5.
...In other news from PolitickerAZ, Jeff Hatch-Miller, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, will be entering the CD5 race, joining Jim Ogsbury, Laura Knaperek, Mark Anderson, and David Schweikert (and possibly the aforementioned Bitter Smith) in the race for the Rep nomination.
He's termed out at the ACC, and as no statewide offices are up this year, it's a run for Congress or two years of toiling in the private sector for him. The field is crowded, but his connections should generate enough in contributions to make him viable in the primary.
Later!
Monday, October 15, 2007
Quarterly FEC reports - updated
Updated on 10/16 with every incumbent now reporting; many of those who are just 'exploring' haven't filed yet. Many of those, because of the timing of their organization, won't *have* to report until after the first of the year.
Key: Candidate name, affiliation ( * signifies incumbents) - total contributions, PAC and other committee $, individual contributions, cash on hand
CD1
Rick Renzi, Republican* - $1,200; $1,000; $200; $2,085.59
Note: Renzi still owes over $100K in legal fees from earlier in the year.
Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat - $217,050.00; $1,000; $216,050.00; $173,227.81
Sydney Hay, Republican - $57,933.81; $0; $57,933.81; $106,267.60
Note: $50,000 of Ms. Hay's fundraising came in the form of a loan to the campaign by the candidate.
Howard Shanker, Democrat - $18,160.24; $0; $18,160.24; $9,367.88
Note: $2,586.34 of his total came from the candidate and the campaign owes $9,300 on a credit card.
Ellen Simon, Democrat - $1,550.00; $0; $1,550.00; $4.41
Note: All $1,550 of Ms. Simon's funds came from the candidate herself.
CD1 note: To borrow a phrase from the film "Bull Durham" - Ms. Kirkpatrick has "announced [her] presence with authority." Her strong quarter sends a loud message both to potential Democratic primary opponents and potential Republican opposition in the general. Her candidacy is for real, and anyone thinking of jumping into the race (either side of the aisle) better be prepared for the long haul.
CD2
Trent Franks, Republican* - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87
CD3
Bob Lord, Democrat - $142,133.52; $5,000.00; $137,133.52; $332,189.52
John Shadegg, Republican* - $192,653.00; $36,400.00; $156,253.00; $450,930.26
Annie Loyd, Independent - $12,139.24; 0; $12,139.24; $5,001.16
Bob Stump, Republican - $0; $0; $0; $13,484.68
CD3 notes: You know that Independent Loyd has an uphill fight when the numbers show that her active campaign has less cash on hand than the inactive (for many years) campaign of Republican Stump. Also, the Lord campaign seems to have legs; while the incumbent Shadegg has outraised him and leads in COH, the differences are fairly insignificant, especially when the majority of the fundraising difference is rooted in Shadegg's advantage in PAC money.
This one is going to be a real race and one to keep an eye on.
Note on the note - Mr. Lord will be speaking at the next meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Jewish Democratic on next Thursday. More on that in my "events calendar" post later this week.
CD4
Ed Pastor, Democrat* - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71
CD5
Harry Mitchell, Democrat* - $354,638.52; $140,470.52; $214,168.00
Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
JD Hayworth, Republican - $0; $0; $0, $20,279.70
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0
CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.
CD6
Jeff Flake, Republican - $225,765.78; $22,500.00; $203,265.78; $749,738.38
CD7
Raul Grijalva, Democrat* - $63,122.02; $0; $63,122.02; $94,425.00
CD8
Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80
Tim Bee, Republican - $134,620.00; $0; $134,620.00; $119,316.25
Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat* - $257,800.05; $96,548.41; $161,251.64; $1,126,838.82
Note: Giffords' info has been corrected by an update; a previous "October" report that was filed in September is NOT the October quarterly report. Oops - I should've caught that in my original post. :(
CD8 note: With a cash on hand total that is slightly more than 10% of Gabrielle Giffords', the fundraising effort of sitting State Senate President Bee can only be termed as "disappointing" for the Republicans.
Of course, I'm a Democrat. :)))))
Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.
The FEC numbers count more. :))
A Sonoran Alliance post on the significance of the numbers in CD5 and CD8 here.
A Sustainablity, Equity, Development post on CD8 is here.
Later!
Key: Candidate name, affiliation ( * signifies incumbents) - total contributions, PAC and other committee $, individual contributions, cash on hand
CD1
Rick Renzi, Republican* - $1,200; $1,000; $200; $2,085.59
Note: Renzi still owes over $100K in legal fees from earlier in the year.
Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat - $217,050.00; $1,000; $216,050.00; $173,227.81
Sydney Hay, Republican - $57,933.81; $0; $57,933.81; $106,267.60
Note: $50,000 of Ms. Hay's fundraising came in the form of a loan to the campaign by the candidate.
Howard Shanker, Democrat - $18,160.24; $0; $18,160.24; $9,367.88
Note: $2,586.34 of his total came from the candidate and the campaign owes $9,300 on a credit card.
Ellen Simon, Democrat - $1,550.00; $0; $1,550.00; $4.41
Note: All $1,550 of Ms. Simon's funds came from the candidate herself.
CD1 note: To borrow a phrase from the film "Bull Durham" - Ms. Kirkpatrick has "announced [her] presence with authority." Her strong quarter sends a loud message both to potential Democratic primary opponents and potential Republican opposition in the general. Her candidacy is for real, and anyone thinking of jumping into the race (either side of the aisle) better be prepared for the long haul.
CD2
Trent Franks, Republican* - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87
CD3
Bob Lord, Democrat - $142,133.52; $5,000.00; $137,133.52; $332,189.52
John Shadegg, Republican* - $192,653.00; $36,400.00; $156,253.00; $450,930.26
Annie Loyd, Independent - $12,139.24; 0; $12,139.24; $5,001.16
Bob Stump, Republican - $0; $0; $0; $13,484.68
CD3 notes: You know that Independent Loyd has an uphill fight when the numbers show that her active campaign has less cash on hand than the inactive (for many years) campaign of Republican Stump. Also, the Lord campaign seems to have legs; while the incumbent Shadegg has outraised him and leads in COH, the differences are fairly insignificant, especially when the majority of the fundraising difference is rooted in Shadegg's advantage in PAC money.
This one is going to be a real race and one to keep an eye on.
Note on the note - Mr. Lord will be speaking at the next meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Jewish Democratic on next Thursday. More on that in my "events calendar" post later this week.
CD4
Ed Pastor, Democrat* - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71
CD5
Harry Mitchell, Democrat* - $354,638.52; $140,470.52; $214,168.00
Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
JD Hayworth, Republican - $0; $0; $0, $20,279.70
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0
CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.
CD6
Jeff Flake, Republican - $225,765.78; $22,500.00; $203,265.78; $749,738.38
CD7
Raul Grijalva, Democrat* - $63,122.02; $0; $63,122.02; $94,425.00
CD8
Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80
Tim Bee, Republican - $134,620.00; $0; $134,620.00; $119,316.25
Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat* - $257,800.05; $96,548.41; $161,251.64; $1,126,838.82
Note: Giffords' info has been corrected by an update; a previous "October" report that was filed in September is NOT the October quarterly report. Oops - I should've caught that in my original post. :(
CD8 note: With a cash on hand total that is slightly more than 10% of Gabrielle Giffords', the fundraising effort of sitting State Senate President Bee can only be termed as "disappointing" for the Republicans.
Of course, I'm a Democrat. :)))))
Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.
The FEC numbers count more. :))
A Sonoran Alliance post on the significance of the numbers in CD5 and CD8 here.
A Sustainablity, Equity, Development post on CD8 is here.
Later!
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Quarterly FEC filings are rolling in...
from the various Congressional campaigns. The list isn't complete (the due date is the 15th) but here's a partial summary of reports from active committees (not necessarily active candidates) -
Key: Candidate name, affiliation - total contributions, PAC $, individual contributions, cash on hand
CD1
CD2
Trent Franks, Republican - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87
CD3
Annie Loyd, Independent - $12139.24; 0; $12139.24; $5001.16
CD4
Ed Pastor, Democrat - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71
CD5
Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0
CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.
CD6
CD7
CD8
Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80
Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat - $663,297.91; $228,891.49; $434,406.42; $407,041.71
Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.
The FEC numbers count more. :))
Yes, it's a little early for this post, but I work weekends and won't have the time to do a more complete post until early next week.
Key: Candidate name, affiliation - total contributions, PAC $, individual contributions, cash on hand
CD1
CD2
Trent Franks, Republican - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87
CD3
Annie Loyd, Independent - $12139.24; 0; $12139.24; $5001.16
CD4
Ed Pastor, Democrat - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71
CD5
Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0
CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.
CD6
CD7
CD8
Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80
Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat - $663,297.91; $228,891.49; $434,406.42; $407,041.71
Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.
The FEC numbers count more. :))
Yes, it's a little early for this post, but I work weekends and won't have the time to do a more complete post until early next week.
Monday, August 20, 2007
More on Harry Mitchell's challenger
Hmmm...well, a few days ago, I wrote a post about the first announced challenger for Harry Mitchell in next year's election, Jim Ogsbury. In that rather quickly written post, I listed some of the political campaign contributions that he has personally made.
That list included the campaign of a couple of Democrats, Gabrielle Giffords and Ed Pastor.
Now, in a post picked up by other conservative blogs, az gnat at Sonoran Alliance has used those contributions as evidence that Ogsbury isn't a 'true' Republican.
That's crap.
I don't normally do counterposts, but this needs to be said -
Hey guys, calm down. He's a Republican, but he's also a professional lobbyist. He'd give money to Osama bin Laden if he thought there might be the slightest possible benefit to him or his clients.
There is no more Republican value than "It's all about the money."
If and when he gets the Rep nomination for CD5, we (meaning Democrats) aren't going to criticize him for contributing to Republican campaigns; we're going to go after him for being a lobbyist.
And that's not exactly a secret.
Enough said on the subject.
On to a little more info about Mr. Ogsbury...
I haven't had time to do in-depth research on any of this yet, but knowing where to look is a good start.
...According to the federal lobbyist registration database, he has lobbied on behalf of the following (and the list is nowhere near comprehensive):
Raytheon
GE
Chevron
Stewart Enterprises (funeral home/cemetary mega-corp)
ACS Government Solutions (specializes in profiting from outsourced government functions)
Apogen Technologies (government contractor)
Broward County (FL)
City of Mesa
Northrup Grumman
Lockheed Martin
Tulane University
LSU
University of New Orleans
Petroleum Helicopters
U.S. Oil and Gas Association
Sonoma Entertainment Investors (Tribal Casinos. Hmmm.....this one may bear further examination :) )
CACI (defense contractor)
City of Chandler
City of Sierra Vista
City of Surprise
Charles River Analytics (defense contractor)
Summary: believe it or not, nothing too surprising here. His lobbying activities are big corporation oriented, but they've got oodles of money, and you need a lot of money to hire professional lobbyists.
That "tribal casinos" one could be fun, though. Wonder if he ever crossed bribes...errr...'contributions' with Jack Abramoff. :))
...From the Arizona Corporation Commission -
Ogsbury is a member of Ogsbury Investments LLC (appears to be a family-owned enterprise)
He is not listed on the ACC's info page for it, but the 2007 Annual Report of the Ogsbury Mortgage Company lists him as the treasurer of the company.
On June 29, "James D. Ogsbury, PLLC" was registered with the state; its stated purpose is to provide "professional legal services." It lists a Scottsdale address (aka - it's in CD5)
Nothing incriminating, just a beginning; perhaps the lesson here will be that an early start to a campaign means an early start to opposition research. :)
Later!
That list included the campaign of a couple of Democrats, Gabrielle Giffords and Ed Pastor.
Now, in a post picked up by other conservative blogs, az gnat at Sonoran Alliance has used those contributions as evidence that Ogsbury isn't a 'true' Republican.
That's crap.
I don't normally do counterposts, but this needs to be said -
Hey guys, calm down. He's a Republican, but he's also a professional lobbyist. He'd give money to Osama bin Laden if he thought there might be the slightest possible benefit to him or his clients.
There is no more Republican value than "It's all about the money."
If and when he gets the Rep nomination for CD5, we (meaning Democrats) aren't going to criticize him for contributing to Republican campaigns; we're going to go after him for being a lobbyist.
And that's not exactly a secret.
Enough said on the subject.
On to a little more info about Mr. Ogsbury...
I haven't had time to do in-depth research on any of this yet, but knowing where to look is a good start.
...According to the federal lobbyist registration database, he has lobbied on behalf of the following (and the list is nowhere near comprehensive):
Raytheon
GE
Chevron
Stewart Enterprises (funeral home/cemetary mega-corp)
ACS Government Solutions (specializes in profiting from outsourced government functions)
Apogen Technologies (government contractor)
Broward County (FL)
City of Mesa
Northrup Grumman
Lockheed Martin
Tulane University
LSU
University of New Orleans
Petroleum Helicopters
U.S. Oil and Gas Association
Sonoma Entertainment Investors (Tribal Casinos. Hmmm.....this one may bear further examination :) )
CACI (defense contractor)
City of Chandler
City of Sierra Vista
City of Surprise
Charles River Analytics (defense contractor)
Summary: believe it or not, nothing too surprising here. His lobbying activities are big corporation oriented, but they've got oodles of money, and you need a lot of money to hire professional lobbyists.
That "tribal casinos" one could be fun, though. Wonder if he ever crossed bribes...errr...'contributions' with Jack Abramoff. :))
...From the Arizona Corporation Commission -
Ogsbury is a member of Ogsbury Investments LLC (appears to be a family-owned enterprise)
He is not listed on the ACC's info page for it, but the 2007 Annual Report of the Ogsbury Mortgage Company lists him as the treasurer of the company.
On June 29, "James D. Ogsbury, PLLC" was registered with the state; its stated purpose is to provide "professional legal services." It lists a Scottsdale address (aka - it's in CD5)
Nothing incriminating, just a beginning; perhaps the lesson here will be that an early start to a campaign means an early start to opposition research. :)
Later!
Friday, August 17, 2007
First announced challenger for Harry Mitchell
From The Phoenix Business Journal -
...On the federal level, Ogsbury has contributed to the campaigns of the likes of JD Hayworth, Jon Kyl, Rick Renzi, John McCain, and Katherine Harris (of Florida recount fame). He has also contributed to the campaigns of Gabrielle Giffords and Ed Pastor. (Info courtesy the FEC)
...On the state level, he has contributed to Jay Tibshraeny and Jim Waring. (Courtesy AZ Secretary of State)
...The conservative blog Sonoran Alliance had this to say in an April evaluation of potential Republican challengers -
This one is no surprise as his entry has been a strong rumor for months. He can get a head start as many of the other rumored challengers are in one or another elected office and would fall under AZ's "resign to run" law. They'll put off 'officially' announcing as long as possible
Later!
Former business lobbyist and congressional committee staffer Jim Ogsbury has announced he will challenge U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz., in next year's elections.
Ogsbury, 48, previously worked for Triadvocates LLC, a Phoenix-based lobbying firm. He also served as federal government relations manager with the Salt River Project utility and was staff director for the U.S. House Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development.
...On the federal level, Ogsbury has contributed to the campaigns of the likes of JD Hayworth, Jon Kyl, Rick Renzi, John McCain, and Katherine Harris (of Florida recount fame). He has also contributed to the campaigns of Gabrielle Giffords and Ed Pastor. (Info courtesy the FEC)
...On the state level, he has contributed to Jay Tibshraeny and Jim Waring. (Courtesy AZ Secretary of State)
...The conservative blog Sonoran Alliance had this to say in an April evaluation of potential Republican challengers -
Jim is well-known and well-liked with insiders. While his career has mostly been in Washington, D.C., he is a native Arizonan and hails from CD 5 where he attended high school and ASU....He will likely be able to raise pretty good money and is rumored to have some of his own that he could put in if need be. However, he also has no name ID.
This one is no surprise as his entry has been a strong rumor for months. He can get a head start as many of the other rumored challengers are in one or another elected office and would fall under AZ's "resign to run" law. They'll put off 'officially' announcing as long as possible
Later!
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