A couple of new names in election races in AZ

One's not a surprise at all and one is a bit of surprise.

First up: the one that isn't a surprise.

From AZPM, written by Christopher Conover -

Adelita Grijalva enters CD 7 race

Adelita Grijalva announced Monday morning that she is entering the race to take her late father's place in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Grijalva has followed in her father's footsteps, serving on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board and on the Pima County Board of Supervisors.

In a written statement, she said," I've spent my life as an advocate, fighting for the brighter future we all deserve."

As for the one that's a bit of a surprise:

From the statements of interest filed with the AZ Secretary of State -

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Far-right candidate Rep. Alexander Kolodin joins 2026 Arizona secretary of state race

Far-right state Rep. Alexander Kolodin is challenging Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in 2026.

The Scottsdale Republican began his campaign on Monday dodging questions about his history of claiming elections aren’t safe.

As of this writing, neither the FEC (in Grijalva's case) nor the AZ Secretary of State (in Kolodin's case) lists a campaign committee for either one one their respective websites.

In Grijalva's case, her entry into the Congressional race was long rumored; as for Kolodin, that was a bit of a surprise - the far right Freedom Caucus, of which Kolodin is a member, absolutely *hates* the current AZSOS, Adrian Fontes. and Kolodin wanted to be the first big name into the race.

My guess: he won't be the last.  The KJZZ story goes on to talk about how Gina Swoboda, the current chair of the AZGOP, is looking at the race, too.

Raul Grijalva has been laid to rest. Now starts the horse race to replace him

This past week, the funeral was held for late Congressman Raul Grijalva.

Most serious candidates waited until afterward to drop the gloves/make an announcement.

So far, there have been no real surprises among the entrants.  In fact, the biggest surprises have been those who have announced that they are *not* running -

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero is out.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is out.

The biggest name who has announced entry into the race is Daniel Hernandez (biggest so far, because others may/will enter the race), a former state legislator and staffer for former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, and he was credited with saving her life when she was shot.

The most interesting name, so far, may be that of Samantha Severson.  Only she and Hernandez have formed committees with the FEC.  In spite of that, I don't believe she's a serious candidate - she's acting as the treasurer for the campaign committee.

In 2022, someone by that name ran for state Attorney General as a Libertarian write-in candidate.

AZ icon Raul Grijalva has passed. Now the horse race begins

Pic from https://www.commondreams.org/news/raul-grijalva

Long-time Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva passed away this past week after a long battle with cancer.

His family and friends may be focused on their grief and mourning his loss (as they should be), but for the rest of us, the focus is on filling his seat in Congress

From KOLD, written by J.D. Wallace -

Amid mourning, new election set for Grijalva congressional seat

The passing of Rep. Raul Grijalva has many in mourning and paying their respects.

During this difficult time, the process of electing the next member of Congress must continue.

On Friday, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced that a special primary election will be Tuesday, July 15, and a special general election is set for Tuesday, Sept. 23.

One person who announced they will not be in the race is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Pima County Supervisor Dr. Matt Heinz has also said he will not run.

[snip]

Romero has already said she will not run while a campaign aide to Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has said he is interested in running. Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, daughter of the late congressman, has yet to announce intentions either way as she mourns his passing.

On Friday on KAET's Horizon, the journalists there speculated that Romero, Heinz, (Adelita) Grijalva, and former state legislator (and aide to Congresswoman Gabby Giffords) Daniel Hernandez will look at the race to replace Congressman Grijalva.  Heinz and Romero have already said they won't run this year.

Thus far, eight people have filed statements of interest with the AZ Secretary of State; only one since his passing:

David Bies (D) 12/10/2024

Daniel Butierez (R) 12/17/2024.

Jimmy Rodriguez (R) 1/7/2025

Jorge Rivas (R) 1/30/2025

Andrew Becerra (D) 2/1/2025

Abdul Ghulam Habib (D) 2/12/2025

Raul Verdugo (R) 2/20/2025

Manuel Vega (D) 3/14/2025

Only two people have formed committees with the FEC, Rivas (see above), and Richard Grayson (No Labels) on 3/15/2025.

Both things will probably change this coming week.

My expectations/predictions:

1. It wouldn't be a surprise if Adelita Grijalva (or another Grijalva) is elected to serve out the remainder of Raul Grijalva's term in Congress.  This isn't a commentary on the internal politics of the district (it's not my district and I know very little about it), just an observation that Americans have a long history of electing spouses/children to serve out the truncated terms of late members of Congress.

2. No matter what happens this year, there *will* be a Democratic primary battle in 2026.  The district is a safe D seat, and those don't become available too often, not in Arizona.

3. 2026 will be an interesting year in AZ politics. and not just in this district.  If current AZ SOS Adrian Fontes gets in this race, that move will open up that race, too.

4 Someone from southern AZ politics who hasn't been speculated about will get in the race.

Let the horse race begin.

Congressman Ed Pastor retiring from Congress

...Thank you for your service and let the scrum begin...

From the Washington Post -

Rep. Ed Pastor (D-Ariz.) announced Thursday that he will be retiring after his current term, setting off what could be a widespread battle to replace him.

The 11-term lawmaker made the announcement via Facebook: "After 23 years in Congress serving the people of Arizona, I have decided that I will not seek re-election this year. It has been a great honor and experience, but it is time for me to close this chapter of my life and start a new one," he said. "I want to thank everyone who has assisted me and supported me throughout my career. Thank you very much for all of your support."

First, let me be one of the many who thank Congressman Pastor for his decades of service to the people of his district, to Phoenix, and Arizona.  His quietly effective style of getting things done will be missed, and will leave some big shoes to fill, for whoever ends up with the job.

Second, the popcorn part of the post.

The district (CD7) is overwhelmingly Democratic.  There are nearly 104K registered Ds in the district, compared to ~38K Rs.  There are approximately 95K Independents or other party registered voters in the district that encompasses south Phoenix, Guadalupe, and southwestern Maricopa County.

That means that a seat that is considered a safe one for Ds is opening up, a rare occurrence here in Arizona.

In 2012, a competitive seat garnered a three-way D primary (eventually won by Kyrsten Sinema) that was rougher than any D primary in recent memory here.

In 2014, the CD7 primary should make that one look like an energetic game of pattycake.

Already announced:

State Rep. Ruben Gallego


State Sen. Steve Gallardo




Mary Rose Wilcox, Maricopa County Board of Supervisors



Others are considering a run, or are being suggested, or are out already (sources are direct or are credible journalists):

Jarret Maupin, considering


Endorsed by Tom Horne (in that district, Horne's endorsement is probably the kiss of death for any candidate).



Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix, out



David Schapira, former state legislator and 2012 candidate for Congress, out
State Sen. Robert Meza, out
Israel Torres, former state Registrar of Contractors and 2006 candidate for AZ Secretary of State




State Rep. Chad Campbell, House Democratic leader, considering


Michael Nowakowski, Phoenix City Council member, considering a run at Congress, or the MCBOS vacancy


EJ Montini, columnist for the Arizona Republic, out (never in or considering, but some people wanted him out of Arizona in DC) :)


State Sen. Leah Landrum Taylor, out

Of course, she got the (sort of) endorsement of R political consultant Constantin Querard, which would be nearly as lethal to a candidacy as Horne's (above).



Ken Cheuvront, former state legislator, out

Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix, considering


Republican Sal DiCiccio, Phoenix City Council member, out, announced in his ever-classy way


State Rep. Catherine Miranda, considering



Others who may run, or at least look at running:

State Sen. Anna Tovar, Senate Democratic leader
Laura Pastor, Phoenix City Council member and the daughter of the Congressman


...OK, there are probably more folks to list, but you get the idea - pretty near every D in the state who has ever had aspirations to a seat in Congress is at least thinking about this one.


From the standpoint of the people who will be involved in the various campaigns, it's going to be a long and hot summer.

From the standpoint of the people who write about this stuff, it's going to be seriously fun.