Adelita Grijalva was elected nearly a month ago. Speaker Johnson still hasn't sworn her in. Maybe he should look in a mirror when assessing blame

Of course for that to help, he would have to cast a reflection.

He does a lot of blame-shifting, for, well, *lots* of things that he and his have done to the people of America.

Maybe, instead of blaming/ignoring adult women and boinking over the residents of AZ7 by leaving them without representation in the House of Representatives, he should point an accusatory finger at the guy he's trying to protect, Dear Leader, the one who (allegedly) likes to boink underaged girls.

From Politico via Yahoo! - 

Johnson refuses to swear in Grijalva, brushes aside Democrats' legal threat — for now

Speaker Mike Johnson is brushing off escalating threats of legal action from Democrats if Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva is not sworn in during Friday afternoon’s House pro forma session.

“It’s a publicity stunt by a Democrat Attorney General in Arizona who sees a national moment and wants to call me out,” Johnson told reporters Friday of the state's AG, Kris Mayes. “She has nothing whatsoever to do with what's happening in Congress."

His statement is is more than a little misleading - it's about what *not* happening in Congress, and when a part of Arizona is being victimized by malfeasance, even by a federal elected official, that is *always* something that is the business of the Arizona Attorney General, the chief protector of the people of AZ.

Mayes' press release on the topic is here.

Johnson, for his part believes that Grijalva should be working in her Congressional office without be a sworn and compensated member of Congress.

From Mediatite, via Yahoo! -

Like a ‘Car’ Without ‘Gas’: Rep-Elect Adelita Grijalva Shows Mike Johnson Why Her New Office is Inoperable

Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) posted a video tour of her new office to show House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) why she can’t get down to business for her constituents.

Critics claim Johnson has been delaying Grijalva’s swearing in since she was elected nearly a month ago to fill her late-father’s congressional seat. Grijalva believes it’s because she has vowed she will be the 218th petition signer needed to get Congress to demand the Epstein files.

[snip, and emphasis added by me]

He then told CNBC, “In the meantime, she can be working for her constituents. She has hired staff. I’ve noticed they keep doing stunt videos outside of her office, knocking on the door and pretending it’s closed. It shouldn’t be. She should be in there taking calls from her constituents and doing her job.”

Perhaps he and the members of his caucus should be in non-functional offices taking calls from actual constituents instead of being on vacation to protect a pedophile.

Maybe they can do that while not receiving any compensation for their labors.

That'll both really drive home his point and be seen as leading by example.

I'm not gonna hold my breath waiting for that to happen.

Q3 Reports Are In!

This covers covers Congress only, and then only those candidates that I've deemed as having a legit chance of winning their race or being "interesting". If a reader wants to know the numbers for a candidate not included here, please let me know in a comment.

David Schweikert (R-CD1) is included here because while he's declared for Arizona Governor, he was fundraising for his race to retain his seat in Congress well into the reporting period. While no Republican "names" have yet entered the race so far, I expect quarter's post to have different names on it.

Lastly, Adelita Grijalva (D-CD7) did not yet file a quarterly report for Q3; as such, her numbers are from her Pre-Special election filing covering the period through 9/3/2025.

Adelita Grijalva laps the field in AZ CD7

Note: The final numbers may change as votes are counted but the results won't.

All numbers are from the website of the Arizona Secretary of State.

Grijalva received 33,528 votes. The next closest Democratic candidate was Deja Foxx with 11,463 votes. A total of 54,159 votes in the Democratic primary.

Not only did Grijalva receive well more than half of the votes cast in the D primary, she received more two times votes in the D primary than were cast in the entire R primary - 16,359.

Yes, CD7 is a fairly safe D district. :)

In my previous post, I made three predictions.

It turns out my prognostication abilities are less than stellar. :)

"The winner of the Democratic primary will be the candidate the one with the best ground game."

I don't know; it's not my district.

"The candidates who come in 2nd and 3rd in combination will garner more votes than the actual winner."

Completely wrong.  It wasn't even close.

"One of them will mount a primary challenge in 2026."

It may still happen, but given the results of yesterday's election, it may not.  I do believe she'll face a primary credible primary challenge next year, as most first termers do, regardless of partisan affiliation.

AZCD7 has a special election tomorrow. Vote!

OK, most people have already voted by mail or early, but tomorrow is the final day for primary voting.

On the ballot:

Five Democratic candidates

Three Republican candidates

There are also:

One Libertarian write-in candidate

Two Green write-in candidates

One No Labels write-in candidate

However, they aren't actually on the ballot.

No predictions here - I'm not going to hazard a guess as to who is going to win any of the primary battles (it's not my district) nor will I even speculate whether one (or more) of the write-in candidates will receive enough votes to appear on the general election ballot.

Except for three rather non-specific predictions - 

The winner of the Democratic primary will be the candidate the one with the best ground game.

The candidates who come in 2nd and 3rd in combination will garner more votes than the actual winner.

One of them will mount a primary challenge in 2026.

Betrayal - it may hurt Eli Crane the most

Yesterday, I wrote a post about how AZ's delegation voted on Cheeto's budget bill, crafted to devastate society by taking from the poor and giving to the wealthy.

Summary: the R members supported the scheme; the Ds opposed it.

Today, I compared district size (based on number of registered voters) and the number of AHCCCS enrollees in that district (AHCCCS is the acronym for "Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System", which is what Medicaid is called in AZ) -

Voter registration figures are as of January 2025 and courtesy the Arizona Secretary of State.

AHCCCS enrollee figures are as of January 2025 and courtesy AHCCCS.

(Pic below)

I wanted to include district median household income figures from the US Census Bureau, but while they indicate their data was from a couple of their 2023 surveys, they didn't put an actual date on the data, so I didn't use it here.

Member with the most registered voters in their district?  Eli Crane of CD2.

Member with the most AHCCCS enrollees in their district?  Yassamin Ansari of CD3.

Note: AHCCCS enrollees may NOT be registered voters.  Many are too young to vote.

Member with the highest ratio of AHCCCS enrollees to registered voters in their district?  Ansari.

Member with the lowest ratio?  Andy Biggs of CD5.

Democrat with the highest ratio?  Ansari.

Republican with highest ratio?  Crane.

As promised, the pic from the AHCCCS report -

Q1 reports are in!

At least they are for federal candidates, candidates for AZ offices have an extra week to file reports.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the FEC before the Q1 2025 deadline (3/31/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q2 aren't covered here.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Listed dates of formation are from the FEC.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

A "0" in an amount cell means that was what was reported; a blank means no report was filed.

No surprises here, though Aversa (CD7) was interesting - in 2024 he ran as the Green Party candidate for AZCD3; at the beginning of this month, he wanted to run as a write in candidate in the special election in FL-CD1 but was disqualified there, and now wants to run in the special election in AZ-CD7.

He can call himself a Green, but he's stridently anti-choice.

My guess: he doesn't appear on a ballot here, or loses in a big way if he does appear on one.

A couple of new names in election races in AZ

One's not a surprise at all and one is a bit of surprise.

First up: the one that isn't a surprise.

From AZPM, written by Christopher Conover -

Adelita Grijalva enters CD 7 race

Adelita Grijalva announced Monday morning that she is entering the race to take her late father's place in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Grijalva has followed in her father's footsteps, serving on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board and on the Pima County Board of Supervisors.

In a written statement, she said," I've spent my life as an advocate, fighting for the brighter future we all deserve."

As for the one that's a bit of a surprise:

From the statements of interest filed with the AZ Secretary of State -

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Far-right candidate Rep. Alexander Kolodin joins 2026 Arizona secretary of state race

Far-right state Rep. Alexander Kolodin is challenging Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in 2026.

The Scottsdale Republican began his campaign on Monday dodging questions about his history of claiming elections aren’t safe.

As of this writing, neither the FEC (in Grijalva's case) nor the AZ Secretary of State (in Kolodin's case) lists a campaign committee for either one one their respective websites.

In Grijalva's case, her entry into the Congressional race was long rumored; as for Kolodin, that was a bit of a surprise - the far right Freedom Caucus, of which Kolodin is a member, absolutely *hates* the current AZSOS, Adrian Fontes. and Kolodin wanted to be the first big name into the race.

My guess: he won't be the last.  The KJZZ story goes on to talk about how Gina Swoboda, the current chair of the AZGOP, is looking at the race, too.

Raul Grijalva has been laid to rest. Now starts the horse race to replace him

This past week, the funeral was held for late Congressman Raul Grijalva.

Most serious candidates waited until afterward to drop the gloves/make an announcement.

So far, there have been no real surprises among the entrants.  In fact, the biggest surprises have been those who have announced that they are *not* running -

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero is out.

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is out.

The biggest name who has announced entry into the race is Daniel Hernandez (biggest so far, because others may/will enter the race), a former state legislator and staffer for former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, and he was credited with saving her life when she was shot.

The most interesting name, so far, may be that of Samantha Severson.  Only she and Hernandez have formed committees with the FEC.  In spite of that, I don't believe she's a serious candidate - she's acting as the treasurer for the campaign committee.

In 2022, someone by that name ran for state Attorney General as a Libertarian write-in candidate.

AZ icon Raul Grijalva has passed. Now the horse race begins

Pic from https://www.commondreams.org/news/raul-grijalva

Long-time Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva passed away this past week after a long battle with cancer.

His family and friends may be focused on their grief and mourning his loss (as they should be), but for the rest of us, the focus is on filling his seat in Congress

From KOLD, written by J.D. Wallace -

Amid mourning, new election set for Grijalva congressional seat

The passing of Rep. Raul Grijalva has many in mourning and paying their respects.

During this difficult time, the process of electing the next member of Congress must continue.

On Friday, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced that a special primary election will be Tuesday, July 15, and a special general election is set for Tuesday, Sept. 23.

One person who announced they will not be in the race is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Pima County Supervisor Dr. Matt Heinz has also said he will not run.

[snip]

Romero has already said she will not run while a campaign aide to Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has said he is interested in running. Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, daughter of the late congressman, has yet to announce intentions either way as she mourns his passing.

On Friday on KAET's Horizon, the journalists there speculated that Romero, Heinz, (Adelita) Grijalva, and former state legislator (and aide to Congresswoman Gabby Giffords) Daniel Hernandez will look at the race to replace Congressman Grijalva.  Heinz and Romero have already said they won't run this year.

Thus far, eight people have filed statements of interest with the AZ Secretary of State; only one since his passing:

David Bies (D) 12/10/2024

Daniel Butierez (R) 12/17/2024.

Jimmy Rodriguez (R) 1/7/2025

Jorge Rivas (R) 1/30/2025

Andrew Becerra (D) 2/1/2025

Abdul Ghulam Habib (D) 2/12/2025

Raul Verdugo (R) 2/20/2025

Manuel Vega (D) 3/14/2025

Only two people have formed committees with the FEC, Rivas (see above), and Richard Grayson (No Labels) on 3/15/2025.

Both things will probably change this coming week.

My expectations/predictions:

1. It wouldn't be a surprise if Adelita Grijalva (or another Grijalva) is elected to serve out the remainder of Raul Grijalva's term in Congress.  This isn't a commentary on the internal politics of the district (it's not my district and I know very little about it), just an observation that Americans have a long history of electing spouses/children to serve out the truncated terms of late members of Congress.

2. No matter what happens this year, there *will* be a Democratic primary battle in 2026.  The district is a safe D seat, and those don't become available too often, not in Arizona.

3. 2026 will be an interesting year in AZ politics. and not just in this district.  If current AZ SOS Adrian Fontes gets in this race, that move will open up that race, too.

4 Someone from southern AZ politics who hasn't been speculated about will get in the race.

Let the horse race begin.

Congressman Ed Pastor retiring from Congress

...Thank you for your service and let the scrum begin...

From the Washington Post -

Rep. Ed Pastor (D-Ariz.) announced Thursday that he will be retiring after his current term, setting off what could be a widespread battle to replace him.

The 11-term lawmaker made the announcement via Facebook: "After 23 years in Congress serving the people of Arizona, I have decided that I will not seek re-election this year. It has been a great honor and experience, but it is time for me to close this chapter of my life and start a new one," he said. "I want to thank everyone who has assisted me and supported me throughout my career. Thank you very much for all of your support."

First, let me be one of the many who thank Congressman Pastor for his decades of service to the people of his district, to Phoenix, and Arizona.  His quietly effective style of getting things done will be missed, and will leave some big shoes to fill, for whoever ends up with the job.

Second, the popcorn part of the post.

The district (CD7) is overwhelmingly Democratic.  There are nearly 104K registered Ds in the district, compared to ~38K Rs.  There are approximately 95K Independents or other party registered voters in the district that encompasses south Phoenix, Guadalupe, and southwestern Maricopa County.

That means that a seat that is considered a safe one for Ds is opening up, a rare occurrence here in Arizona.

In 2012, a competitive seat garnered a three-way D primary (eventually won by Kyrsten Sinema) that was rougher than any D primary in recent memory here.

In 2014, the CD7 primary should make that one look like an energetic game of pattycake.

Already announced:

State Rep. Ruben Gallego


State Sen. Steve Gallardo




Mary Rose Wilcox, Maricopa County Board of Supervisors



Others are considering a run, or are being suggested, or are out already (sources are direct or are credible journalists):

Jarret Maupin, considering


Endorsed by Tom Horne (in that district, Horne's endorsement is probably the kiss of death for any candidate).



Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix, out



David Schapira, former state legislator and 2012 candidate for Congress, out
State Sen. Robert Meza, out
Israel Torres, former state Registrar of Contractors and 2006 candidate for AZ Secretary of State




State Rep. Chad Campbell, House Democratic leader, considering


Michael Nowakowski, Phoenix City Council member, considering a run at Congress, or the MCBOS vacancy


EJ Montini, columnist for the Arizona Republic, out (never in or considering, but some people wanted him out of Arizona in DC) :)


State Sen. Leah Landrum Taylor, out

Of course, she got the (sort of) endorsement of R political consultant Constantin Querard, which would be nearly as lethal to a candidacy as Horne's (above).



Ken Cheuvront, former state legislator, out

Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix, considering


Republican Sal DiCiccio, Phoenix City Council member, out, announced in his ever-classy way


State Rep. Catherine Miranda, considering



Others who may run, or at least look at running:

State Sen. Anna Tovar, Senate Democratic leader
Laura Pastor, Phoenix City Council member and the daughter of the Congressman


...OK, there are probably more folks to list, but you get the idea - pretty near every D in the state who has ever had aspirations to a seat in Congress is at least thinking about this one.


From the standpoint of the people who will be involved in the various campaigns, it's going to be a long and hot summer.

From the standpoint of the people who write about this stuff, it's going to be seriously fun.