The district lines haven't even been finalized yet, but I received my first polling call of the election season.
Six potential candidates were mentioned, but only three were the focus of the call.
Mentioned only:
Harry Mitchell, the former teacher, mayor, city council member, state senator and current husband, father, grandfather, icon and mentor (geez, is it too obvious that I really wish Harry would reconsider his decision not to run next year? :) )
Neil Giuliano, the former Republican mayor of Tempe and current Democrat
David Schapira, the current state senator from LD17 and Senate Democratic leader
Focused on:
Kyrsten Sinema, current LD15 state senator and author (and many other things). Easily the most liberal member of this field
Andrei Cherny, current chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and former staffer in the Clinton White House
Jon Hulburd, a lawyer, businessman, and 2010 candidate for Congress in the current CD3. Easily the most conservative member of this field
The call was pretty standard with questions about if I thought the country/state/my area was headed in the right direction, rating the importance of certain issues in next year's election and general impressions some potential candidates (the six named above), voting habits, and so on.
Then the call moved into thoughts on potential matchups between specific candidates.
The potential matchups named were Sinema-Hulburd, Hulburd-Cherny, Harry-Cherny (I think. My notes went kind of fuzzy here. Turns out I have trouble taking good notes while keeping one eye on the baseball game, posting my status on Facebook, holding my cell phone to one ear and typing one-handed. Who knew? LOL), and Sinema-Cherny-Hulburd.
Then it moved into a sorta-push poll/testing possible negative messages section, reciting a list of negative statements about Sinema and Hulburd and asking me if the statements impacted my opinions of the pair.
Obviously, I can't state definitively who put the poll in the field, but given that the surveyor focused on three candidates, and only tested negative messages about two of them...well, I'm an Occam's Razor kind of guy (not necessarily a perfect approach in assessing political developments, but it'll do this far out from the election)...
What I can state definitively to the folks behind this poll, and to anyone else considering entering the race is that my support and vote won't go to the candidate with the strongest progressive bonafides or who runs as the most Republican-lite or has the most polished professional resume.
The candidate who I think will work hardest for the district and the state will get my support and vote. I certainly had my disagreements with some of Harry Mitchell's votes and positions on individual issues, but his votes and positions were what he thought was right for the best interests of his constituents.
He may have chosen to forego another campaign, but I expect no less from any candidate that wants my support.
I know, that attitude may be a little naively idealistic, perhaps surprisingly so for someone as cynical as me, but that's the way it is.
Let the infighting begin...
Edit on 10/24 to add:
Last night I received a phone call from someone who is in a position to know about these things (aka - someone who is more of a campaign insider than me), and they informed me that Occam's Razor is a little dull. They informed me that the campaign that I hinted may have been behind the poll in fact wasn't, and that it was one of the other two candidates.
Since paying for polls is generally listed as a campaign expense (though it is an expense that is frequently is not listed directly but is buried in "consulting fees"), I did a little research on the FEC's website and found that only one of the three, Jon Hulburd, has an active campaign committee. In fact, that candidate's committee just filed a Statement of Organization on September 9, 2011.
FWIW, while this news doesn't raise or lower my opinion of any of the candidates, it is research I should have done before posting. I promise to do a better job in future coverage.
End edit...
Showing posts with label Hulburd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hulburd. Show all posts
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Monday, October 18, 2010
Got some good news, got some bad news
OK, for some it's "bad news, good news"...
...Good news for the Schweikert campaign - this is his third campaign for Congress, and Jackass 3D was #1 at the box office this weekend. Sequels had some strength this weekend.
...Bad news for the Schweikert campaign - the election wasn't this weekend.
...Bad news for the Ken Bennett campaign - setting up an office in the basement of a lobbyist's office doesn't look good for a candidate for an office that is supposed to be all about integrity.
...Good news for Bennett - He's already set up his desk for his post-election job.
...Bad news for Ben "Tater Tot" Quayle in CD3 - a new poll shows him *behind* Democrat Jon Hulburd in the Republican-leaning district.
...Good news for Quayle - if he goes on to lose the race (and since his "unfavorables" are above 50%, that's a strong possibility), he should remember that the son of another famous politician lost his first campaign, a campaign for Congress. When George H.W. Bush tried to buy a seat in Congress for his son George W., the future "worst president ever" failed miserably to win what should have been a "safe" seat for any credible R candidate.
...Of course, that good news for Quayle isn't good news for the rest of us.
...Good news for the Brewer campaign - she's found a way to move attention away from concerns about her health and her ability to serve a full term in the Governor's office..
...Bad news for the Brewer campaign - that way involves irritating voters by hiding from them, decreasing the chance that after the election, she will have the opportunity to serve a full term.
Pic courtesy the Terry Goddard for Governor Facebook page...
At least she was consistent all day - she blew off senior voters during the day, and educators and students during the evening.
...Good news for the Schweikert campaign - this is his third campaign for Congress, and Jackass 3D was #1 at the box office this weekend. Sequels had some strength this weekend.
...Bad news for the Schweikert campaign - the election wasn't this weekend.
...Bad news for the Ken Bennett campaign - setting up an office in the basement of a lobbyist's office doesn't look good for a candidate for an office that is supposed to be all about integrity.
...Good news for Bennett - He's already set up his desk for his post-election job.
...Bad news for Ben "Tater Tot" Quayle in CD3 - a new poll shows him *behind* Democrat Jon Hulburd in the Republican-leaning district.
...Good news for Quayle - if he goes on to lose the race (and since his "unfavorables" are above 50%, that's a strong possibility), he should remember that the son of another famous politician lost his first campaign, a campaign for Congress. When George H.W. Bush tried to buy a seat in Congress for his son George W., the future "worst president ever" failed miserably to win what should have been a "safe" seat for any credible R candidate.
...Of course, that good news for Quayle isn't good news for the rest of us.
...Good news for the Brewer campaign - she's found a way to move attention away from concerns about her health and her ability to serve a full term in the Governor's office..
...Bad news for the Brewer campaign - that way involves irritating voters by hiding from them, decreasing the chance that after the election, she will have the opportunity to serve a full term.
Pic courtesy the Terry Goddard for Governor Facebook page...
At least she was consistent all day - she blew off senior voters during the day, and educators and students during the evening.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Jon Hulburd on KNXV-TV
Hulburd is the Democratic nominee in the Third Congression District, squaring off against Ben "Brock Landers" Quayle in the contest to replace the retiring John Shadegg.
Later...
Later...
Sunday, October 03, 2010
Arizona Republic editorial board to its readers: Arizona may be in lousy shape, but you should vote for the status quo
Liberals like to claim that the Arizona Republic is a "conservative" paper, but it's not. (Though to be fair, many of them remember the not-so-distant days when the Rep was officially named the "Arizona Republican" or less officially served as the press release outlet for the Arizona Republican Party.)
Conservatives like to claim that the Rep is a "liberal" paper, but it isn't. (It just isn't a mouthpiece for the "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" wing of the AZGOP.)
Instead, the Arizona Republic is a "corporate" paper, dedicated to defending corporate profit margins. Since most corporations operate in such a way as to derive the maximum profit from the political status quo, the Republic has become a staunch defender of that status quo.
Their latest list of election endorsements clearly illustrate this tendency.
- They passed over Terry Goddard in giving their endorsement in the race for governor to Jan Brewer. They called Goddard an "articulate, dedicated servant of the people of this state" yet gave the nod to Brewer, citing her ability to "handle the legislature" (apparently, the Rep's editorial board slept through all of 2009) and her disbanding of the state's Department of Commerce in favor of a meaningless (and authority-less) "Commerce Authority." What they also liked was her support for "enhancing prospects for job creation" - better known as blanket tax cuts directed to corporations.
- They ignored Rodney Glassman (literally! He wasn't even mentioned in the article!) in giving their endorsement for U.S. Senate to John McCain. In the opinion piece, they cited "McCain's role in all those great national and world debates," such as the debates over the war in Iraq and campaign finance reform. What they didn't cite were McCain's accomplishments for Arizona. They couldn't cite those accomplishments, because there aren't any. This particular endorsement also isn't a surprise, even aside from its "status quo" characteristics - the Rep's editorial board has been in the McCain family pocket for decades (is Dan Nowicki the Republic's reporter who is embedded with McCain's staff, or is he the McCain staffer embedded with the Republic? Either way, the effect, and the final product, is the same...)
- The Rep's endorsement of Ann Kirkpatrick in the CD1 race also serves to illustrate the Rep's "status quo" bias - she's an incumbent, and while a Democrat, she's a conservative one who thoroughly supports Big Business. Note: While I too support and recommend voting for her, it's because she is the better candidate, not a great candidate.
- The logic the Rep's editorial board used when passing over Penny Kotterman when endorsing John Huppenthal for State Superintendent of Public Instruction astounds me, even when allowing for their "status quo" bias. They cite his 18 years of legislative experience focusing on education issues and then follow it up with this quote -
Their endorsement is as sensible as a doctor sitting down with a patient who has been diagnosed with lung cancer after decades of smoking and suggesting that the patient could cure the cancer by smoking more cigarettes.
- In a bit of a surprise, the Rep's editorial board endorsed Felecia Rotellini over Tom Horne for Attorney General. They complimented her as "smart and unflappable," which is very true, but Tom Horne is a current office holder and an establishment Republican. This would seem to disprove my "status quo bias" position, until one remembers that, like Rotellini, Terry Goddard, the current Attorney General, is smart, unflappable, and a Democrat.
- However, the Rep did spring one big surprise on voters, and not in a good way. They twisted themselves like a pretzel to find a way to ignore Jon Hulburd and give their CD3 endorsement to Ben Quayle.
First, they opened up their piece with -
Could the Quayle family's previous ownership of the Republic have influenced the endorsement? Nahhhh, couldn't be...
The headline for the Rep's endorsement was "Ben Quayle offers candor, conviction."
Given that Quayle's previous "candor" indicated a deep disrespect for women and could lead to convictions of the criminal variety if he becomes part of the free-for-all social environment in D.C.'s political subculture, instead of being a surprise, perhaps the Rep's endorsement of his [possible] ascension to Congress would be in perfect keeping with their desire to maintain the status quo.
Less than a week ago, the Republic actually brought themselves some credit with their list of endorsements for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District - the candidates they endorsed were intelligent, educated, experienced, and highly-qualified for the job.
Apparently, however, those qualities are desirable only in candidates for lower-profile (though extremely important) offices.
I may agree with some of the Rep's coming endorsements, but where I will support the candidates who are better for Arizona, they'll be supporting the candidates who they see as most protective of their preferred status quo.
Conservatives like to claim that the Rep is a "liberal" paper, but it isn't. (It just isn't a mouthpiece for the "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" wing of the AZGOP.)
Instead, the Arizona Republic is a "corporate" paper, dedicated to defending corporate profit margins. Since most corporations operate in such a way as to derive the maximum profit from the political status quo, the Republic has become a staunch defender of that status quo.
Their latest list of election endorsements clearly illustrate this tendency.
- They passed over Terry Goddard in giving their endorsement in the race for governor to Jan Brewer. They called Goddard an "articulate, dedicated servant of the people of this state" yet gave the nod to Brewer, citing her ability to "handle the legislature" (apparently, the Rep's editorial board slept through all of 2009) and her disbanding of the state's Department of Commerce in favor of a meaningless (and authority-less) "Commerce Authority." What they also liked was her support for "enhancing prospects for job creation" - better known as blanket tax cuts directed to corporations.
- They ignored Rodney Glassman (literally! He wasn't even mentioned in the article!) in giving their endorsement for U.S. Senate to John McCain. In the opinion piece, they cited "McCain's role in all those great national and world debates," such as the debates over the war in Iraq and campaign finance reform. What they didn't cite were McCain's accomplishments for Arizona. They couldn't cite those accomplishments, because there aren't any. This particular endorsement also isn't a surprise, even aside from its "status quo" characteristics - the Rep's editorial board has been in the McCain family pocket for decades (is Dan Nowicki the Republic's reporter who is embedded with McCain's staff, or is he the McCain staffer embedded with the Republic? Either way, the effect, and the final product, is the same...)
- The Rep's endorsement of Ann Kirkpatrick in the CD1 race also serves to illustrate the Rep's "status quo" bias - she's an incumbent, and while a Democrat, she's a conservative one who thoroughly supports Big Business. Note: While I too support and recommend voting for her, it's because she is the better candidate, not a great candidate.
- The logic the Rep's editorial board used when passing over Penny Kotterman when endorsing John Huppenthal for State Superintendent of Public Instruction astounds me, even when allowing for their "status quo" bias. They cite his 18 years of legislative experience focusing on education issues and then follow it up with this quote -
We believe the sort of reform advocated by John Huppenthal is best for improving Arizona's often dismal comparative standing on the crucial questions of how best to improve schools.Ummm...do they understand that Huppenthal and the "reforms" pimped by him are some of the major reasons for Arizona's "dismal comparative standing" on most education-related metrics? And that his experience in the lege has included years of trying to slowly destroy public education in Arizona?
Their endorsement is as sensible as a doctor sitting down with a patient who has been diagnosed with lung cancer after decades of smoking and suggesting that the patient could cure the cancer by smoking more cigarettes.
- In a bit of a surprise, the Rep's editorial board endorsed Felecia Rotellini over Tom Horne for Attorney General. They complimented her as "smart and unflappable," which is very true, but Tom Horne is a current office holder and an establishment Republican. This would seem to disprove my "status quo bias" position, until one remembers that, like Rotellini, Terry Goddard, the current Attorney General, is smart, unflappable, and a Democrat.
- However, the Rep did spring one big surprise on voters, and not in a good way. They twisted themselves like a pretzel to find a way to ignore Jon Hulburd and give their CD3 endorsement to Ben Quayle.
First, they opened up their piece with -
Ben Quayle, a Republican, may be the best-known congressional candidate in the country who isn't a member of the "tea party." That shouldn't matter to voters in District 3, which stretches from north-central Phoenix to New River. They don't need a celebrity. They need the best representative they can elect.In the next paragraph, they follow that up with -
If this were a job interview, Democrat Jon Hulburd would have the large advantage. He rose to become a partner at Fennemore Craig, one of Phoenix's top law firms. He left to start an import business. He has career and community accomplishments that Quayle can't match.So naturally, after pointing out Quayle's celebrity status and saying that CD3 doesn't need a celebrity in Congress, and Hulburd's vastly superior resume and qualifications, they gave their endorsement to Quayle -
But elections aren't just about resumes. They're about ideas. And on that score, Quayle is the better candidate to succeed John Shadegg. Quayle is well-versed in the issues. He speaks with passion and conviction.So, the Rep soft-pedals Quayle's lack of qualifications for any elected office, much less a seat in Congress, and completely ignores his pre-candidacy career as a writer for the website Dirty Scottsdale, under the porn-riffic nom de plume "Brock Landers."
Could the Quayle family's previous ownership of the Republic have influenced the endorsement? Nahhhh, couldn't be...
The headline for the Rep's endorsement was "Ben Quayle offers candor, conviction."
Given that Quayle's previous "candor" indicated a deep disrespect for women and could lead to convictions of the criminal variety if he becomes part of the free-for-all social environment in D.C.'s political subculture, instead of being a surprise, perhaps the Rep's endorsement of his [possible] ascension to Congress would be in perfect keeping with their desire to maintain the status quo.
Less than a week ago, the Republic actually brought themselves some credit with their list of endorsements for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District - the candidates they endorsed were intelligent, educated, experienced, and highly-qualified for the job.
Apparently, however, those qualities are desirable only in candidates for lower-profile (though extremely important) offices.
I may agree with some of the Rep's coming endorsements, but where I will support the candidates who are better for Arizona, they'll be supporting the candidates who they see as most protective of their preferred status quo.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Dark Clouds, Silver Linings, and Lessons
The results of Tuesday's elections across the country offer a silver lining of hope in what has long been considered to be a dark year for Democrats. And nowhere is that silver lining brighter than in Arizona.
To whit:
- Dark cloud: Libertarian (dressed in Republican clothing) Rand Paul wins the R nomination for Senate in Kentucky.
- Silver lining: He's already imploding, coming out against the Civil Rights Act...before backing off (sort of). Guess he was against the Act before he was for it.
- Silver lining2 - Paul received 206,960 votes in the R primary; Daniel Mongiardo, the 2nd place Democrat in the D primary, received 225,159. There are almost 600K more Ds than Rs in Kentucky. They are Ds of a conservative bent (hence the two Rs currently representing KY in the U.S. Senate) but they won't put up with the public embarrassment that Paul is threatening to become.
- Lesson: The most "whatever" candidate in a party's primary may not be that party's *best* candidate. Not making a prediction here (yet), but despite the Tea Party's glee over Paul's nomination, winning the nomination isn't the same as winning the office. This race is far from over. The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in KY, Jack Conway, is in a solid position entering the general election campaign.
- (Not so) Dark cloud: Democrat Mark Critz won the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. The win keeps the Ds' perfect record in head-to-head special elections held since the 2008 election intact and allows them to retain the seat held by the late Jack Murtha for the better part of four decades.
- Silver lining: Critz may have shown the way to beat the Rs' standard campaign platform of running against D.C., Nancy Pelosi, and those durn "liberal" Democrats, and it's the most basic lesson in politics - all politics is local. The R in the race, Tim Burns, ran as a generic national Republican/Club for Growth candidate, campaigning against Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Critz stumped the western PA district and talked about jobs.
Critz won.
- Lesson: No matter if the pundits think that the trends in a given election cycle dramatically favor one party over another (as they think that 2010 favors Rs over Ds), any single race is usually won by the candidate who runs the better, more district-focused, campaign.
- Dark cloud: Republicans all over Arizona are grasping for the chance to go Congress.
- Silver lining: Their primaries have become cattle call, "I'm more conservative than thou" slugfests.
- - In the race for U.S. Senate, former radio gabber JD Hayworth is looking to unseat fellow Republican John McCain, pulling the heretofore not-exactly-liberal McCain into Hayworth's (and the Tea Party's) nativist, anti-government ideological territory.
All the while, Democrat Rodney Glassman is turning in his sigs, opening his Phoenix headquarters, and reaching out to *all* Arizona voters, not just the nativists.
- - In CD5, Republican perennial candidates Susan Bitter Smith and David Schweikert have been joined by electoral newcomers Jim Ward and Chris Salvino in their race to unseat Democratic incumbent and local icon Harry Mitchell. The Rs are running anti-immigrant/anti-Obama campaigns (Salvino's signs even start with "Stop Obama", not his name). Mitchell is working for his district, reining in Congressional pay, and protecting America's veterans.
-- In the CD3 battle royal to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg, there are at least a dozen open committees on the Republican side (Moak, Waring, Winkler, and Quayle have already filed their signatures) and they're all running as the "real" conservative in the race. They've been whipsawing between toeing the nativist line and nuzzling the corporate teat.
All the while, Jon Hulburd, the only Democrat in the race already in general election mode, talking to voters in the district and honing his message, starting with his number one issue, jobs.
-- In CD8, at least three Republicans, including SB1070 and payday loan industry supporter Jonathan Paton, are duking it out for a chance to face incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson). Paton, the presumed R nominee, has been spending time in Phoenix, far from his district, holding a $1000 per person fundraiser at an Arizona Diamondbacks game; Giffords countered with an event held much closer to home - Hi Corbett Field in Tucson at a Tucson Toros game.
- Lesson: We'll see in November. I might be mistaken about where this is all leading, but the Ds are doing things right while their erstwhile R challengers are trying to stick political knives in each other's backs and making the rounds of the usual suspects, hoping to schmooze them into opening their wallets.
Later...
To whit:
- Dark cloud: Libertarian (dressed in Republican clothing) Rand Paul wins the R nomination for Senate in Kentucky.
- Silver lining: He's already imploding, coming out against the Civil Rights Act...before backing off (sort of). Guess he was against the Act before he was for it.
- Silver lining2 - Paul received 206,960 votes in the R primary; Daniel Mongiardo, the 2nd place Democrat in the D primary, received 225,159. There are almost 600K more Ds than Rs in Kentucky. They are Ds of a conservative bent (hence the two Rs currently representing KY in the U.S. Senate) but they won't put up with the public embarrassment that Paul is threatening to become.
- Lesson: The most "whatever" candidate in a party's primary may not be that party's *best* candidate. Not making a prediction here (yet), but despite the Tea Party's glee over Paul's nomination, winning the nomination isn't the same as winning the office. This race is far from over. The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in KY, Jack Conway, is in a solid position entering the general election campaign.
- (Not so) Dark cloud: Democrat Mark Critz won the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. The win keeps the Ds' perfect record in head-to-head special elections held since the 2008 election intact and allows them to retain the seat held by the late Jack Murtha for the better part of four decades.
- Silver lining: Critz may have shown the way to beat the Rs' standard campaign platform of running against D.C., Nancy Pelosi, and those durn "liberal" Democrats, and it's the most basic lesson in politics - all politics is local. The R in the race, Tim Burns, ran as a generic national Republican/Club for Growth candidate, campaigning against Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Critz stumped the western PA district and talked about jobs.
Critz won.
- Lesson: No matter if the pundits think that the trends in a given election cycle dramatically favor one party over another (as they think that 2010 favors Rs over Ds), any single race is usually won by the candidate who runs the better, more district-focused, campaign.
- Dark cloud: Republicans all over Arizona are grasping for the chance to go Congress.
- Silver lining: Their primaries have become cattle call, "I'm more conservative than thou" slugfests.
- - In the race for U.S. Senate, former radio gabber JD Hayworth is looking to unseat fellow Republican John McCain, pulling the heretofore not-exactly-liberal McCain into Hayworth's (and the Tea Party's) nativist, anti-government ideological territory.
All the while, Democrat Rodney Glassman is turning in his sigs, opening his Phoenix headquarters, and reaching out to *all* Arizona voters, not just the nativists.
- - In CD5, Republican perennial candidates Susan Bitter Smith and David Schweikert have been joined by electoral newcomers Jim Ward and Chris Salvino in their race to unseat Democratic incumbent and local icon Harry Mitchell. The Rs are running anti-immigrant/anti-Obama campaigns (Salvino's signs even start with "Stop Obama", not his name). Mitchell is working for his district, reining in Congressional pay, and protecting America's veterans.
-- In the CD3 battle royal to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg, there are at least a dozen open committees on the Republican side (Moak, Waring, Winkler, and Quayle have already filed their signatures) and they're all running as the "real" conservative in the race. They've been whipsawing between toeing the nativist line and nuzzling the corporate teat.
All the while, Jon Hulburd, the only Democrat in the race already in general election mode, talking to voters in the district and honing his message, starting with his number one issue, jobs.
-- In CD8, at least three Republicans, including SB1070 and payday loan industry supporter Jonathan Paton, are duking it out for a chance to face incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson). Paton, the presumed R nominee, has been spending time in Phoenix, far from his district, holding a $1000 per person fundraiser at an Arizona Diamondbacks game; Giffords countered with an event held much closer to home - Hi Corbett Field in Tucson at a Tucson Toros game.
- Lesson: We'll see in November. I might be mistaken about where this is all leading, but the Ds are doing things right while their erstwhile R challengers are trying to stick political knives in each other's backs and making the rounds of the usual suspects, hoping to schmooze them into opening their wallets.
Later...
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Shadegg retires...again
Congressman John Shadegg (R-CD3) has announced that he will not seek reelection this year. He made the same announcement two years ago, then reneged on it.
This time he reallyreallyreally means it, honest.
Note: any speculation about possible Republican candidates is just that - speculation. In case you couldn't tell (because my writing is *so* subtle :) ), I am NOT a Republican and have few, if any, sources among the Rs.
A quick rundown of some possible candidates to replace him (announced and speculated about):
Jon Hulburd, Democrat, is the only announced candidate thus far. He was gearing up to challenge Shadegg; now he has to shift gears slightly and adjust to running for an open seat.
Phil Gordon, Democrat. He's currently the Mayor of Phoenix and is termed limited next year, so he wants to move onward and upward. If he gets in and gains any traction in this race, it will be on the strength of his fundraising and campaign machine. Grassroots Dems do NOT like Gordon - he's endorsed too many really bad Rs (Jim Weiers, Andrew Thomas) to endear himself to neighborhood Democratic activists. Has the ego to jump in anyway.
Jim Waring, Republican. Currently a state senator. Was rumored to be interested two years ago, but backed off when Shadegg unretired. Currently "exploring" a run at State Treasurer, but may forego that for a shot at DC. If he goes for it, State Sen. Thayer Verschoor will probably go for the Treasurer's job. Of the R names listed here, he may be the best of a very bad lot. Very conservative, but not a knuckledragger.
Pam Gorman, Republican. Currently a state senator, and like Waring, was rumored to be interested two years ago. Currently on the outs with Senate leadership for her "more conservative than thou" grandstanding on the state budget last year, so she may be very interested this time around.
Sean Noble, Republican. Formerly Shadegg's chief of staff and has long been considered Shadegg's heir apparent. Writes the blog Noble Thinking.
Steve May, Republican. Former state legislator. Actually formed a committee in 2008 and briefly ran against Shadegg, but backed off when the support wasn't there. Very conservative, strong military background, but with one big flaw by Republican standards - he's openly gay. If he runs for office again, any office, he will have a tough row to hoe in any R primary. I don't think that he lives in the district, but that is a minor detail in AZ. Just ask Virginian Rick Renzi.
Sam Crump, Republican. Currently a state representative. Very conservative, very ambitious, not known for playing well with others - threatened to challenge House Speaker Kirk Adams on the budget, and like Gorman, got slapped down for his trouble (but only temporarily). Also started to mount a campaign for AG, trying to bump more established Rs Tom Horne and Andrew Thomas from the race. Recently backed away from that to run for reelection to the state House. Very likely to jump in here, regardless of who else jumps in.
Any teabagger (pick one, any one.) Don't know which one, but given the state of the current GOP, at least one will jump in.
Other possible but less likely candidates:
Perennial candidate Susan Bitter Smith (R), an industry lobbyist and currently president of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project. She doesn't live in the district, but may view an open seat as an easier target than Harry Mitchell in CD5.
The aforementioned Tom Horne (R), currently State Superintendent of Public Instruction and a candidate for Attorney General. Possible, but not likely - Andrew Thomas' travails (a polite word for "expected federal indictment") leave him a clear path at the R nod for AG. A CD3 primary would be far less of a good bet for him.
Bob Lord (D), who mounted a strong challenge to Shadegg in 2008. Word is that he has been advising fellow D Hulburd. Expended a lot of energy in 2008, and may not have another run in him. Yet.
Vernon Parker (R), Mayor of Paradise Valley and an announced candidate for Governor. Has an uphill battle in a statewide race with his low name recognition, but is one of the bigger names in the district. Pure speculation on my part, but I wanted to toss out a name that no one else has so far. :)
Tedski's take and speculations at Rum, Romanism, Rebellion, here.
Anybody have their own guesses? Feel free to leave them in a comment...
This time he reallyreallyreally means it, honest.
Note: any speculation about possible Republican candidates is just that - speculation. In case you couldn't tell (because my writing is *so* subtle :) ), I am NOT a Republican and have few, if any, sources among the Rs.
A quick rundown of some possible candidates to replace him (announced and speculated about):
Jon Hulburd, Democrat, is the only announced candidate thus far. He was gearing up to challenge Shadegg; now he has to shift gears slightly and adjust to running for an open seat.
Phil Gordon, Democrat. He's currently the Mayor of Phoenix and is termed limited next year, so he wants to move onward and upward. If he gets in and gains any traction in this race, it will be on the strength of his fundraising and campaign machine. Grassroots Dems do NOT like Gordon - he's endorsed too many really bad Rs (Jim Weiers, Andrew Thomas) to endear himself to neighborhood Democratic activists. Has the ego to jump in anyway.
Jim Waring, Republican. Currently a state senator. Was rumored to be interested two years ago, but backed off when Shadegg unretired. Currently "exploring" a run at State Treasurer, but may forego that for a shot at DC. If he goes for it, State Sen. Thayer Verschoor will probably go for the Treasurer's job. Of the R names listed here, he may be the best of a very bad lot. Very conservative, but not a knuckledragger.
Pam Gorman, Republican. Currently a state senator, and like Waring, was rumored to be interested two years ago. Currently on the outs with Senate leadership for her "more conservative than thou" grandstanding on the state budget last year, so she may be very interested this time around.
Sean Noble, Republican. Formerly Shadegg's chief of staff and has long been considered Shadegg's heir apparent. Writes the blog Noble Thinking.
Steve May, Republican. Former state legislator. Actually formed a committee in 2008 and briefly ran against Shadegg, but backed off when the support wasn't there. Very conservative, strong military background, but with one big flaw by Republican standards - he's openly gay. If he runs for office again, any office, he will have a tough row to hoe in any R primary. I don't think that he lives in the district, but that is a minor detail in AZ. Just ask Virginian Rick Renzi.
Sam Crump, Republican. Currently a state representative. Very conservative, very ambitious, not known for playing well with others - threatened to challenge House Speaker Kirk Adams on the budget, and like Gorman, got slapped down for his trouble (but only temporarily). Also started to mount a campaign for AG, trying to bump more established Rs Tom Horne and Andrew Thomas from the race. Recently backed away from that to run for reelection to the state House. Very likely to jump in here, regardless of who else jumps in.
Any teabagger (pick one, any one.) Don't know which one, but given the state of the current GOP, at least one will jump in.
Other possible but less likely candidates:
Perennial candidate Susan Bitter Smith (R), an industry lobbyist and currently president of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project. She doesn't live in the district, but may view an open seat as an easier target than Harry Mitchell in CD5.
The aforementioned Tom Horne (R), currently State Superintendent of Public Instruction and a candidate for Attorney General. Possible, but not likely - Andrew Thomas' travails (a polite word for "expected federal indictment") leave him a clear path at the R nod for AG. A CD3 primary would be far less of a good bet for him.
Bob Lord (D), who mounted a strong challenge to Shadegg in 2008. Word is that he has been advising fellow D Hulburd. Expended a lot of energy in 2008, and may not have another run in him. Yet.
Vernon Parker (R), Mayor of Paradise Valley and an announced candidate for Governor. Has an uphill battle in a statewide race with his low name recognition, but is one of the bigger names in the district. Pure speculation on my part, but I wanted to toss out a name that no one else has so far. :)
Tedski's take and speculations at Rum, Romanism, Rebellion, here.
Anybody have their own guesses? Feel free to leave them in a comment...
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