A top of the ballot race may not be the best place for a candidate w/o elected office experience to start their electoral career

This doesn't apply to Presidential elections, only to U.S. Senate seats from AZ and the Arizona governorship, which are usually the highest level Arizona-based offices on a ballot in AZ.

It's also not a partisan thing as both Ds and Rs fall on both sides of this.

Lastly, when I say "no experience in lower-level offices", I'm not talking about school board or city/town council seats (with one exception) - I didn't look that far into the background of any candidate.

It's not absolutely true - people with experience in lower-level elected offices have lost races for higher office*, and at least one person with no experience in elected office has won a top-of-the ballot race.

* = usually they ran against incumbents or other people with experience in lower-level elected offices.

In the following list, an asterisk (*) next to a candidate's name means that candidate won the race.

"Nada" means that neither office was on the ballot.  I believe that the next time that will happen is 2032..

The races (I started in 1994 because I moved here in 1993) -

Twice, Kari Lake has run for office (2024 [Senate] and 2022 [Governor]), and twice she has lost.

She's not running for governor again, but the two main candidates in the R primary for that office in 2026 exhibit some of the same weaknesses as her.

Andy Biggs, former legislator and current Congressman, is disliked by most people who meet him.  As is Lake.

Karrin Taylor Robson is a rich/famous person looking to buy an elected office.  As was Lake.

Cheeto has famously endorsed both, which may help them in a Republican primary.

However, given his monetization of public service for himself (and his allies) and his cratering of it for everyone else (ya know,  the public), that endorsement may not help in a general election (I'm presuming that one of them will win the primary).

In 2022, D Mark Kelly defeated R Blake Masters for US Senate.  Masters was widely seen as a carpetbagger serving as a rich guy's tool/proxy and had never been in elected office.

In 2020, D Mark Kelly defeated R Martha McSally for a US Senate seat.  While Kelly had no experience in public office and McSally was a member of Congress, he was retired from the military and could pick the brain of his wife, former member of Congress and state legislator, Gabby Giffords.  Those things seem to have helped him.

In 2014 and 2018, R Doug Ducey defeated both Ds David Garcia and Fred Duval in their runs for governor.  In 2018, Ducey was an incumbent; in 2014,he may not have been an incumbent, but had one term as state treasurer under his belt.  While Garcia and Duval had stretches in public life, neither had been in elected office.

In 2012, R Jeff Flake defeated D Richard Carmona for US Senate.  Carmona had public service behind him, but Flake was a member of Congress.

In 2010, R Jan Brewer defeated D Terry Goddard for governor.  While he had been in elected office before and she was an unelected incumbent as Governor.  However, she had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.

In 2010, R John McCain defeated D Rodney Glassman.  While Glassman had previously been part of the Tucson City Council, McCain was an incumbent.

Glassman changed his party registration (many years ago) and, in 2026, will be running for state Attorney General as a Republican.

Glassman may be able to run as a uniter - the one thing that activists in both major parties can agree on is that most of them dislike him.

In 2006, R Jon Kyl defeated D Jim Pederson for US Senate.  Kyl was an incumbent; Pederson had never been in office.

In 2006, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Len Munsil.  She was an incumbent; he had never been in office.

In 2004, R John McCain defeated D Stuart Starky for US Senate.  McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Starky has never been in office.

2004 was before I became politically active, so my knowledge is spotty.

In 2002, D Janet Napolitano defeated R Matt Salmon.  At that point, he was a member of Congress but she had run statewide and been Attorney General.

In 1998, R John McCain defeated D Ed Ranger for US Senate.  McCain was an incumbent, and, to the best of my knowledge, Ranger has never been in office.

In 1998, R Jane Hull defeated D Paul Johnson.  While he had been mayor of Phoenix, she was an unelected incumbent who had been Secretary of State and in the state legislature.

In 1994, R Jon Kyl defeated D Sam Coppersmith for US Senate.  Kyl was an incumbent; Coppersmith had never been in office (so far as I know).

In 1994, R Fife Symington defeated D Eddie Basha for governor. Symington was an incumbent; Basha was a grocery magnate.

In short, the vast majority of races hold true to the title of this post, with a couple of noted exceptions.

Idle speculation time: Lieutenant Governor

In honor of Republican candidate for governor Karrin Taylor Robson already running TV spots...well more than a year before her primary.

In 2022, Arizona voters approved Proposition 131, which created a Lieutenant Governor (Lt. Governor) position in Arizona politics.

The language is now part of Article 5, Section 1, Paragraph C of the Arizona State Constitution.  The candidates for lt. governor will be named by the candidates for governor before the general election.

It's time for some speculation about who they might name. :)

Note: this is NOT a prediction; my prognostication abilities when it comes to internal R politics are less than optimal

My thinking is that the primary candidate for the will be current state treasurer Kimberly Yee.  She's termed out of the treasurer's slot, and while she may run for governor (again!), my guess is that the only way she gets through a primary with Robson and Andy Biggs is if they split the MAGA vote and she gets the rest.

Probably not gonna happen.

I *do* think that she'd help Biggs more in the general - if nothing else, she's seen as less crazy than him.

On the other hand, if/when he feels it necessary to boost his nutjob bonafides, Kari Lake is available.

On the Democratic side, I have no clue (not even for idle speculation).  Though, I bet that whoever is interested in the gig is busily jockeying both for position and for Governor Katie Hobbs' attention.

We has a Brnovich sighting!

The best news is that a former AG for the State of AZ has found (somewhat, as he's working for Cheeto) gainful employment.

From AZMirror, written by Gloria Rebecca Gomez, dated 3/28/2025 -

Trump names Brnovich ambassador to Serbia

Arizona’s former Attorney General, Republican Mark Brnovich will be the next U.S. ambassador to Serbia. 

In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump announced the appointment, hailing Brnovich as a candidate who will prioritize the country’s interests in the central Balkan Peninsula. 

“Mark is a proud Veteran of the Army National Guard, and previously served as Attorney General for the Great State of Arizona. As the son of refugees who fled communism, Mark will be a strong advocate for Freedom, and always put AMERICA FIRST,” Trump wrote

He lost in the 2022 R primary for US Senate to Blake Masters.

Of course, that's only one loss.  Kari Lake lost two elections before Cheeto named her to head Voice of America.

And then he shut it down.

I'm not sure what's next for her.  Maybe an ambassadorship to the Heard and McDonald Islands?

Hey - if islands that are inhabited only by penguins are good enough for some of Cheeto's tariffs, they're good enough for an ambassador's residence.

Think Kari Lake has too much time on her hands now that VOA has been dismantled by Vlad's lackey?

 From The Bulwark -

Kari Lake Accosted Ruben Gallego at a Posh D.C. Club

INSIDE NED’S CLUB WASHINGTON, DC—the swanky new private members’ club featuring vintage gold and green furnishings, a renowned chef and mixologist, and a rooftop with views of the White House—cable news figures can often be seen holding court alongside an array of Democrats and Trump administration officials taking meetings, all of them free to relax in the same space outside the view of the public.

A recent chance encounter there between bitter 2024 campaign rivals, however, reveals how the overheated political climate is becoming less and less hospitable to cross-partisan bonhomie, particularly when immigration is a chief concern.

As Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) headed toward the elevator to leave on a recent late-winter day, he ran into his former opponent, the infamous Trump acolyte Kari Lake. As Gallego went for a handshake, Lake accepted it with both hands—a gesture that usually accompanies a warm greeting.

What she said was anything but that.

“How does it feel,” she asked, “to be bought and paid for by the cartels?”

Gallego was taken aback, according to a person familiar with the exchange. So, too, was Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), who was within earshot of two and blasted Lake—whom Trump tapped to lead Voice of America before dismantling it this week—for speaking that way to a U.S. senator.

My guess is that Lake isn't going away - she's going to run for *something* next year...and, like State Senator Wendy Rogers, every cycle until she wins something.

Is deputy dog catcher in La Paz County an elected position?

Election postmortem

Yes, I realize that this benefits from 20/20 hindsight.

1. Joe Biden should have stepped well before any Democratic primary/caucus.  The eventual nominee (who I will presume would have been Vice President Kamala Harris) would have benefited from getting their campaign and messaging in order *before* the general election period.  As it was, the campaign seemed rushed.

2. Speaking of messaging, abortion rights wasn't the wrong message, but making it the *only* message was.  America is a complicated place that faces many issues and ceding economic and immigration issues to Republican-generated lies was a mistake.  Ruben Gallego was the only Democrat to win a high-profile race in AZ, and it helped him to define himself before his opponent, Kari Lake, started spreading lies about him (of course, it also helped that everyone who meets her intensely dislikes her).  She did lie, a LOT, but the message was already out.

Going forward, that might be something for Democratic candidates (and their consultants) to keep in mind.

3. None of this changes the most disheartening fact - there are literally millions of Americans who would rather support, and vote for, an utterly vile human being, so long as the vile person is male, and his opponent is female.

Even if they're being lied to, and know it.  So long as the lies are what to hear, they'll choose to believe the lies,

I don't have a "should" to address this.

Someone should get a message to Kari Lake

And the gist of that message should be: "Please go away."

Over the last couple of days, I've received four email messages from Kari Lake.

The voters have spoken, twice (in 2022 and 2024), and both times, they have thoroughly rejected her. 

Yet, she still insists that her shortfall in votes is due to illegal votes, and only "legal" ones are counted, she'll win.

She doesn't define "legal", but one thing is clear.  She want lots of money.

From one email -

From another -

She's rapidly devolving to "perennial candidate" status, and she'll go there if she feels that's the best way for her to keep the grift going.

Is deputy dog catcher an elected position?

She's baaaaack

During my "Predictions" post, I observed that Republican US Senate nominee Kari Lake was basically off the air and her last few ads were short and apocalyptic, strongly tying her to Cheeto.

Well, I saw one of her spots today. 

It was still short and apocalyptic; this one featured Cheeto disdainfully mispronouncing the last name of her opponent, Congressman Ruben Gallego.

My guess (and it's only that - this may shock some readers [or not :) ] but I'm not exactly a Lake campaign insider) is that she's hoarding her remaining funds to be expended during, and during the run up to, Election Day.  While early voting is very important, a significant number of votes will be cast then.

A single word can be sooooo descriptive

Both articles are from last week.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake’s whiffed attack over Gallego’s divorce puts her campaign further in the gutter

Kari Lake’s last-ditch effort to slime Ruben Gallego in the lead-up to Election Day landed with a dud.

Lake had been hyping up an effort by The Washington Free Beacon, a right-wing media outlet, to pry loose documents related to Gallego’s divorce from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

Although the Gallegos have publicly been amicable since their split, Lake and other conservatives have homed in on the fact that their divorce came as Kate Gallego was pregnant, and the fishing expedition has seemed intent on finding details that could be used to sling mud at Gallego. Lake has run ads referring to Gallego as a “deadbeat dad” and last week promised that a “massive story” was on the horizon.

On the same topic, from KPNX (12 News Phoenix), written by Kevin Reagan -

Here's what we found in Ruben Gallego's divorce records

A heavily-redacted version of U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego's divorce papers released Thursday revealed little new information about the dissolution of his marriage to Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

After the Arizona Supreme Court denied a motion to keep the Gallego divorce records sealed, a 465-page document was published by Yavapai County Superior Court that included several redactions regarding how the Gallegos split custody of their son, how they split their assets, and their child support agreement.

 

I've got one word to describe the Gallego's divorce proceeding record -

Boring.

I've got one word to describe Kari Lake and her surrogates -

Despicable.

(That word was used by Tony Cani on KTVK's Politics Unplugged, but I was there even before I heard it from him.)

The Gallego-Lake debate is on TV right now.

Just a guess here, but Lake probably won't win any new voters with her performance.

She seems mean, petty, and ill-informed (she repeatedly referred to IVF [In Vitro Fertilization] as "UVF", which is the acronym for Ulster Volunteer Force or University of Valley Forge).

Just when you believe they can't get any lower, Kari Lake give a stump speech in front of a Confederate flag

From The Guardian (UK) -

Revealed: Trump ally Kari Lake gave speech in front of Confederate flag

Video shows Arizona Senate candidate repeating election-fraud claims at event with Confederate flag behind her

The Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake addressed supporters with a Confederate flag displayed behind her during a campaign event at a Trump merchandise store in Arizona last week, where she repeated false claims about election fraud.

In footage obtained by the Guardian, Lake is seen speaking into a microphone, surrounded by a group of supporters, at the Trumped Store in Show Low, Arizona. Behind her, a Confederate battle flag and a yellow “Don’t Tread On Me” flag are affixed to the wall. Both flags are available for purchase on the website of Trumped Store, which sells an array of merchandise with the former president’s name and likeness.

I admit it - I've got nothing to add here.

Mark Lamb, R candidate for U.S. Senate, has a rather "flexible" relationship with telling the truth

That's something he shares with Cheeto.

Of course, that may not help much in that primary - his opponent there, Kari Lake, is also afflicted by the same character flaw.

He appeared on channel 12's Sunday Square Off this morning, ostensibly to respond to Kari Lake's claim the he's a coward (his response: "No, I'm not"), but mostly because he's thought to be rising in the polls in that race, probably because of Lake's utter despicability as a person.

Lamb may be more likeable, but he's no better a human being than Lake.

He started off by claiming that the jury verdict convicting Cheeto of 34 felonies was due to "unequal justice."

Later, he went on to prove that there's an unequal system of justice in the U.S. by urging the deportation of 15-20 million people, presumably without 15-20 million trials.

He also continued propagating the right-wing trope that that judge in Cheeto's criminal trial instructed the jury that they didn't have to be unanimous in finding him guilty.  That's false.

He also tried to say that  election denialism it a bipartisan thing by citing Hillary Clinton and Stacy Abrams.  He lied.

He said frequently that "the border"/illegal immigration was the biggest issue facing the U.S. and as his job is to protect his community in Pinal County (he's the sheriff in Pinal County), he's going to "work the border."  There's one problem with that.  Miles of Pinal County that border another country: 0.

He also claimed that fentanyl overdoses were the leading cause of death in the U.S.  However, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, the leading cause of death for Americans in 2022 (the most recent year for which data is available) was heart disease at over 702K deaths.  Yet, according to the National Institutes of Health National Institute on Drug Abuse, there were just under 108K overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2022.

He also stated that crime was rising in the U.S..  It isn't.  Not even close..

His penchant for lying may help him in the Republican primary, but no matter who emerges from that primary, everyone should vote for Ruben Gallego in the general election.

Pic taken from his website

Poll: Gallego leading Lake

Though in AZ, Biden vs. Trump is too close to call.

Pointed at this by fivethirtyeight.com.

I saw this today, and, while I firmly believe that when it comes to elections, there's only one poll that counts (and it's held in November, this poll is current enough to merit a post.

From fivethirtyeight -

The poll in question is from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and from and Mainstreet Research.

From FAU's press release -

BATTLEGROUND STATES NEVADA AND ARIZONA TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Click here for Full Crosstabs and Other Products From FAU/Mainstreet

Download Nevada Report

Download Arizona Report

With the 2024 election cycle fast approaching, new polling data from Nevada and Arizona reveal a deeply engaged and starkly divided electorate in these pivotal battleground states.

The FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research polls highlight the intense partisan polarization and motivations driving voter sentiment, including economic concerns, the legal proceedings against former U.S. President Donald Trump, and the potential entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third-party candidate.

[snip]

Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, is currently outperforming incumbent Republican Gov. Kari Lake (44% to 37%) suggesting that Lake has had a difficult time getting traction in this race.

Like Trump, Lake is leading only with voters under age 49, and more than 20% of voters in that age bracket indicate they are still undecided. The close numbers forecasting a fight for control of the House in Arizona underscore how the congressional generic ballot highlights the intense battle being waged across the state’s districts.

According to the full survey report, Gallego has a 7% lead among registered voters and an 8% lead among likely voters.

One note about the press release: it cites Lake as the incumbent governor.  She's not.  She was the 2022 R nominee for AZGov. She just wishes she was governor, and has filed lawsuits to overturn the results.  None of those have been successful in overturning the election; of course, that may not have been the real purpose of the lawsuits.

Her rubes supporters have sent her a lot of money based on her claims.

Kari Lake goes ballistic over U.S. aid to Ukraine

No word on if Dear Leader was pulling her strings on behalf of Vlad, or if Vlad was doing it directly.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake Loses it Over House Passing Ukraine Aid, Reps. Waving Ukraine Flags on House Floor: ‘I Don’t Know What Country I’m in Anymore!’

Kari Lake teed off after the House passed a $95 billion aid package which included significant funding for Ukraine.

Appearing on Newsmax Saturday, the Arizona Senate candidate blasted the representatives who waved Ukraine flags on the House floor after voting to pass the aid package by a strong margin. The Ukraine component of the bill — which allocated $60 billion — passed by a vote of 311-112, meaning nearly half of House Republicans were on board.

Dear Ms. Lake:

You're in the United States.

Me just trying to help.

Short attention span musing - democracy isn't for dilettantes edition

- If, in 2019, someone told me that our election center should nicknamed "Fortress Democracy." I would have laughed.

Then 2020 happened.

From AP -

Arizona expects to be back at the center of election attacks. Its top officials are going on offense

The room sits behind a chain-link fence, then black iron gates. Guards block the entrance, which requires a security badge to access. The glass surrounding it is shatterproof.

What merits all these layers of protection is somewhat surprising: tabulating machines that count the votes during elections in Arizona’s Maricopa County. The security measures are a necessary expense, said the county recorder, Stephen Richer, as Arizona and its largest county have become hotbeds of election misinformation and conspiracy theories that have led to near continuous threats and harassment against election workers.

[snip]

The false claims, promoted by prominent Republicans such as presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump and Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, have driven protesters to rally outside vote-counting centers and to patrol drop boxes. The claims have fueled death threats against election workers and their families and prompted top election officials to quit across Arizona.

The battleground state also has become a target for attacks from election meddlers and other bad actors who repeatedly attempt to hack or disable the state’s electronic systems, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said.

- It seems that throwing ideological bombs is preferable to actually, you know, governing.  At least it is for certain people..

From The Independent (UK) -

Marjorie Taylor Greene insists she doesn’t want ‘chaos’ after second threat to oust House Speaker

Marjorie Taylor Greene has defended her bid to oust Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson - after threatening to do so in January - and insisted that she was not seeking to throw the government into “chaos”.

The Georgia representative and other far right members of the House opposed the $1.2trn federal spending package that passed Congress this past week, and claimed that it was full of wasteful spending.

She denounced Mr Johnson as “willing to do the bidding of [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer”.

[snip]

Ms Greene denied that the House’s paralysis is due to far-right conservatives, or the second effort to oust a speaker in six months.

“Those people stepping down early and leaving, are the ones leaving us at risk of the Democrats controlling the majority, not me,” the congresswoman said.

She's not the only GOPer in the House who is ticked at Johnson over the budget deal.

- It seems redundant to make a deep fake video about a dilettante, but it sure can be entertaining.

From Arizona Agenda, written by Hank Stephenson -

Hey Agenda readers!

We have a very special announcement today. 

To our great surprise, Kari Lake, the former newscaster turned political candidate and frequent subject of our derision, offered to film a testimonial about how much she likes the Arizona Agenda. 

[snip]

At least, did you spot it before she told you?

Or — like most people that we’ve shown this to — did it take a second for your brain to catch up even after our “Deep Fake Kari Lake” told you she was fake?

 

Many commentators/outlets have bemoaned the effect of deep fake videos on politics.

My concern is the effect of AI-generated videos on credibility; nobody will be able to believe what they see.

And while I believe that the destruction of credibility, especially institutional credibility, is an end goal of MAGA types, it will go far beyond politics.

Can you say "reasonable doubt"?

Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.