Turnout matters

As we've seen from some recent elections, one international and one local, elections can turn out in ways that benefit the governed.

No matter that Cheeto and his enablers/sycophants want people to believe otherwise.

Even though one election was international and a right wing party won (though not as right wing as the strongman who lost the election) and one was local with some pro-clean energy people winning a majority on a local board, they share one thing in common - both had incredibly high voter turnouts.

From BBC (emphasis added by me) - 

Orbán era swept away by Péter Magyar's Hungary election landslide

Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power is over and a system condemned as an "electoral autocracy" lies in tatters, defeated by a 45-year-old former party insider who convinced a majority of Hungarians to bring it to an end.

"We did it," Péter Magyar told a crowd of cheering supporters beside the River Danube, overlooking Budapest's magnificent parliament on the other side. "Together we overthrew the Hungarian regime."

[snip]

[snip]

"Never before in the history of democratic Hungary have so many people voted - and no single party has ever received such a strong mandate," he [Magyar] said on Sunday night, after a record 79.5% of the electorate turned out to vote.

That's the international one.  The local one:

From KJZZ, written by Wayne Schutsky , dated 4/9/2026 (emphasis added by me) -

Clean energy slate claims victory over Turning Poin  t in Arizona SRP election

Turning Point USA’s political arm spent months pouring money and resources into a little-known utility election in Arizona, an effort that contributed to massive increase in voter turnout but ultimately failed to stave off a challenge from a slate of clean-energy candidates.

Salt River Project held elections on Tuesday for the boards and councils that set policy and make other decisions on behalf of its water and power utilities.

For years, those elections have flown under the radar due to a number of factors, including its unique electoral system that only allows landowners within SRP territory to cast votes. And, for most positions, those votes are allocated based on a landowner’s total acreage, giving large property owners more influence and leaving most homeowners with a fraction of a vote.

By comparison, the voter turnouts for the U.S. presidential elections in 2020 and 2024 were among the highest for a U.S. Presidential election (66% in 2020 and 64% in 2024), they were significantly lower than the other turnouts.

From Pew Research Center, dated 6/26/2026 -

[snip]

In short, people are best served by voting.  Not only that, they should urge their friends, neighbors, and family members to do so, too.

Democracy is NOT a "fire it up and forget it" operation.  When voters take the lazy way and sit out democracy in general and elections in particular, we end up with lousy human beings running things.

Mostly great news: Election results 2025

Nationally, it was a very good day for Democratic candidates.  There are many articles on that available.

Suffice to say, yesterday was an example of most Americans saying "Up Yours" to Cheeto et. al.

This post will focus on some Maricopa County results; the vote total could/will change, but the results aren't close enough for the outcome to change.  Any that look to be close enough to change will be noted.

All pics and numbers are from Maricopa County Elections.

First, the big one (for this county anyway.)

Proposition 409, authorizing the Maricopa County Special Health Care District to sell some bonds passed, just not by as wide a margin as it should have.

There were 31 school-related questions, 20 passed.

One that might change is in Chandler -

There was one piece of bad news - Republican Mesa City Council member Julie Spilsbury was recalled in favor of Turning Point USA's preferred candidate.

Her offense?

Being an apostate woman.

Know what the greatest crime is in any religious sect/cult? Apostasy.

And that belief has come to AZ politics.

From Collins Dictionary -

If someone is accused of apostasy, they are accused of abandoning their religious faith, political loyalties, or principles.

In Mesa, there's going to be recall election targeting Julie Spilsbury, the District 2 member of the Mesa City Council.

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Mesa sets Nov. 4 date for Turning Point-backed City Council recall election

Mesa will hold a recall election for Councilmember Julie Spilsbury on Nov. 4. New candidates can start filing for the seat in August.

Spilsbury was first elected in 2020 and represents District 2.

Mesa resident JoAnne Robbins filed a recall petition against Spilsbury in January for her votes on three issues. One allowed temporary homeless housing in a hotel. The others raised council salaries and utility rates and passed unanimously.

Recall elections are usually reserved for elected officials who are corrupt, otherwise engaged in criminal activity, or who are simply embarrassments to their constituents (that last doesn't happen often, so many electeds are somewhat brazen in their acts).

Spilsbury's "offense"?

Not worshipping at the altar of Dear Leader in 2024.

From later in the same story -

The recall effort is backed by the political arm of conservative nonprofit Turning Point USA.

“Stand with us for a stronger, more conservative Mesa!” said a Turning Point Action flier urging for Spilsbury’s recall.

Spilsbury is a Republican, and although city council is a nonpartisan office, she’s faced criticism for supporting former Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

Spilsbury sat down with Mark Curtis of KPNX (Phoenix Channel 12) to talk about the recall.

Normally, at this point, I would advise people to get out their popcorn, because I think that Republicans eating their owned is very entertaining, in a popcorn-riffic way.

However, there is something I like more - elected officials who do their jobs.

And Spilsbury does hers.

Cheeto orders many voters to be disenfranchised. State-level elections officials push back.

And some folks, like AZ's Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, think that Cheeto may have another endgame in mind, one that goes beyond disenfranchising those who disagree with him.

From AP -

Trump signed an order to reshape how elections in the US are run. Is it constitutional?

With the stroke of his pen, President Donald Trump restructured the way Americans can register to vote and when they can cast their ballots. Or did he?

After the president signed his executive order Tuesday calling for broad election changes, such as proof of citizenship for voter registration and an Election Day return deadline for mailed ballots, election officials, state attorneys general and legal experts said it would face legal challenges for encroaching on state powers outlined in the U.S. Constitution.

Nope, some folks believe that his ultimate goal is to disenfranchise *everyone.*

From Democracy Docket (emphasis added by me) -

Trump Anti-Voting Order Draws Furious Pushback

[snip]

Fontes called Trump’s order a “cheap substitute” for the SAVE Act — the GOP’s nationwide proof of citizenship bill — that he doesn’t think will pass through the Senate, but also offered a particularly nefarious reading of its true purpose: setting up a way to cancel the 2026 midterm elections.

“I genuinely believe that the Trump administration wants to cancel the 2026 elections so that he and his party can stay in power,” he said. “And we have to fight like hell against that by every means available.”

Election postmortem

Yes, I realize that this benefits from 20/20 hindsight.

1. Joe Biden should have stepped well before any Democratic primary/caucus.  The eventual nominee (who I will presume would have been Vice President Kamala Harris) would have benefited from getting their campaign and messaging in order *before* the general election period.  As it was, the campaign seemed rushed.

2. Speaking of messaging, abortion rights wasn't the wrong message, but making it the *only* message was.  America is a complicated place that faces many issues and ceding economic and immigration issues to Republican-generated lies was a mistake.  Ruben Gallego was the only Democrat to win a high-profile race in AZ, and it helped him to define himself before his opponent, Kari Lake, started spreading lies about him (of course, it also helped that everyone who meets her intensely dislikes her).  She did lie, a LOT, but the message was already out.

Going forward, that might be something for Democratic candidates (and their consultants) to keep in mind.

3. None of this changes the most disheartening fact - there are literally millions of Americans who would rather support, and vote for, an utterly vile human being, so long as the vile person is male, and his opponent is female.

Even if they're being lied to, and know it.  So long as the lies are what to hear, they'll choose to believe the lies,

I don't have a "should" to address this.

Statewide Ballot questions

There were 13 statewide questions in total on this year's ballot in AZ; 11 were referred by the Republicans in the legislature, two were referred by the people.

Eight failed - seven legislative questions, and one from the people

There were five election related questions; all failed, including the one intended to remove retention elections for judges.

It failed spectacularly, with more than 75% of voters voting it down.

One that passed: Proposition 139, amending the state's constitution to protect access to abortion which passed by more than 550,000 votes/21 percentage points.

It's not ALL bad news: most school district-related ballot questions passed

...At least in Maricopa County.  I didn't look at the other counties in AZ.

There were 40 school district questions here; 31 passed.  That's more than 75%.

Note: All listed vote totals are current; the totals will change as late ballots are counted.  However, none of them look close enough for the outcome to change.

The State Senate membership may be tied*

* = There's a rather big caveat: If current results hold up.  A couple of the districts that currently favor the Democratic candidate are very close.  One of them is verrrryyyyy close.

As results currently stand, the Senate would be tied 15-15.

However, two of the districts may change -

As things stand right now, the House will have 32 Republican members and 28 Democratic ones, though a couple of those races are close enough to change.

However, the biggest upset may have been in the Senate - former legislator Vince Leach lost his race in LD17 to Democrat John McLean.

Election Results 2024 - 3rd numbers

First and foremost, I want to thanks each and every person who helped to run a polling site or to count ballots.  I may not like some of the results, but I know this -

Democracy doesn't work without you.

Going forward, certain races will be dropped off this list as the outcome in that race seems given.  The vote totals may change but the outcome probably won't.

Election Results 2024 - 2nd numbers

 

Election Results 2024 - 1st numbers

Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.

Need your daily dose of hypocrisy? You'll get it when an election denier runs for office.

Early ballots are in the mail, so I did some research/due diligence on the races that I know nothing about.

For brevity's sake, I'll refer to them as "school board" races.

For the At-Large seat in the Phoenix Union HSD, incumbent Aaron Marquez, Francisco Pastor-Rivera, Aden Ramirez, and Debbie Cross are in a four-way race for two seats.

At least in a shallow search, none of them raise any red flags.

Note: Marquez is also a candidate for State Representative in LD5.  If he wins both races, that's not a problem - state legislators can also serve on school boards.

This race will be difficult - after Marquez, I don't know who to vote for.

In the Balsz ESD race, incumbent Vic Grace, incumbent Gail Knight, Lezley Shepherd, and Jacob George are in a four-way race for three seats.

Note: I looked for websites for the first three candidates.  Couldn't find any.

Grace and Knight are already board members and George seems well-qualified.

Shepherd, though, is a problem.

She's been quoted many times, in outlets ranging from the NY Times to the AZ Mirror, all denying the result of the 2020 election.

From an NY Times article about Arizona's "fraudit", one that actually found more votes for Biden and fewer for Cheeto, dated 9/24/2021 (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

In a statement, Mr. Trump on Friday said the review had “uncovered significant and undeniable evidence of FRAUD! Until we know how and why this happened, our Elections will never be secure.”

Many of his fans appeared persuaded.

“I have no doubt now: That election was rigged,” said Lezley Shepherd, 56, one of hundreds of Arizona voters who flocked to the State Capitol on Friday

At least she's not a one trick pony: she hates gay people, too.  And she's not shy about expressing her opinion.  

From a Phoenix New Times article about the Republican quest to criminalize drag shows, written by Elias Weiss, dated 2/4/2023 (emphasis added by me) -

All of those who spoke in favor of the bill [CM: SB1028 in 2023] referenced the Bible. One of them, Leslie Shepherd, asserted that “the LGBTQ movement is using [drag] as a shield to allow inappropriate behavior toward children.”

Well, one positive thing can be said about her candidacy: she's made the choice easy.  There's no way on Earth she gets my vote.

At this point, my only question is that when the election doesn't go her way, will she refute the results and try to deliberate and vote as a board member?

Bottom line: I consider most campaigns for elected office to be little more than extended group job interviews, and you don't hire the person who says that if the hiring process doesn't go their way, it's because the process is rigged.

Gotta love coincidences

And I believe that this actually *is* a coincidence and not me being snarky.

Both former legislator Adam Driggs and his spouse, Leonore Driggs are on the ballot this year and, for different reasons, neither has competition.

Note: My referring to them by their first names and not their titles is not a sign of disrespect.  Both are known as "Judge Driggs" and that would get confusing.  Quickly :) .

Of course, Adam is a judge with Maricopa County Superior Court and subject to a retention election where voters can only vote to retain or not to retain him as a judge.  No opponent.

Leonore is the incumbent Justice of the Peace in the Arcadia Biltmore justice precinct in Phoenix.  There's no opponent on the ballot, nor is there a write-in candidate in the race.

I'll be voting for both of them - I've never heard anything bad about Leonore Driggs, and the Judicial Performance Review Commission has determined that Adam Driggs meets standards.

Yes, AZ is a very large state (~114K square miles) but in terms of politics here, it's much like a small town.

Primary results are in

There were a few upsets, but not many; most of the "upsets" were in the gap between candidates, not in the final results.

Notes:

The results for federal and legislative races are from the Arizona Secretary of State.

The results for Maricopa County races (designated with an "MC") are from the Maricopa County Recorder's office.

All results are preliminary; vote totals may change, but in most races, I don't expect the final order to change.

Lastly, there were other primaries and/or other candidates not included here.

Candidate Office Party Percent

Kari Lake US Sen R 55.23

Mark Lamb US Sen R 39.41

Amish Shah CD1 D 23.93

Andrei Cherny CD1 D 21.41

Marlene Galan-Woods CD1 D 20.89

Conor O'Callaghan CD1 D 18.44

Andrew Horne CD1 D 12.27

Kurt Kroemer CD1 D 3.08

Yassamin Ansari CD3 D 46

Raquel Teran CD3 D 42.9

Juan Ciscomani CD6 R 59.4

Kathleen Winn CD6 R 40.6

Abe Hamadeh CD8 R 29.83

Blake Masters CD8 R 25.32

Ben Toma CD8 R 21.23

Trent Franks CD8 R 16.54

Anthony Kern CD8 R 4.74

Mark Finchem LD1 Sen R 47.1

Ken Bennett LD1 Sen R 34.3

Wendy Rogers LD7 Sen R 54.91

David Cook LD7 Sen R 45.09

Walt Blackman LD7 Rep R 27.44

David Marshall LD7 Rep R 24.53

Steven Slaton LD7 Rep R 14.1

Janeen Connolly LD8 Rep D 34

Brian Garcia LD8 Rep D 33.91

Juan Mendez LD8 Rep D 32.08

Vince Leach LD17 Sen R 51.63

Justine Wadsack LD17 Sen R 48.37

Eva Diaz LD22 Sen D 76.1

Leezah Sun LD22 Sen D 23.9

Analise Ortiz LD24 Sen D 86.3

Mario Garcia LD24 Sen D 13.7

Tyler Kamp MC Sheriff D 54.87

Russ Skinner MC Sheriff D 45.13

Jerry Sheridan MC Sheriff R 51.28

Frank Milstead MC Sheriff R 27.82

Mike Crawford MC Sheriff R 20.9

Mark Stewart MC SD1 R 65.24

Jack Sellers MC SD1 R 34.76

Thomas Galvin MC SD2 R 57.16

Michelle Ugenti-Rita MC SD2 R 42.84

Rachel Mitchell MC Attorney R 57.58

Gina Godbehere MC Attorney R 42.42

Justin Heap MC Recorder R 42.45

Stephen Richer MC Recorder R 35.76

Don Hiatt MC Recorder R 21.78

Not sure what it means, but the incumbent Maricopa County Recorder, Stephen Richer, was unseated in the primary.

Former state legislator Michelle Ugenti-Rita got thumped in her quest for a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

Incumbent MCBOS member Jack Sellers lost quest for re-election.  Not sure what happened here.

Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp will face off for Maricopa County Sheriff in November.

Democrat Analise Ortiz thoroughly trounced faux Democrat Mario Garcia in the race for LD24 Senator.

Democrat Eva Diaz easily beat disgraced former legislator Leezah Sun in the race for LD22 Senator

Republican Vince Leach defeated controversial incumbent Justine Wadsack in the primary for LD17 Senator.

In the one real upset, and the one race where late counted votes may change the outcome, termed out incumbent Senator Juan Mendez was foiled in his quest to switch chambers in the LD8 Democratic primary.  In those races, the top two vote-getters are considered to be the victors, but he's currently in third.

In the race for LD7 State Representative, Republican Steven Slaton, who faced accusations that he inflated his military service, finished a distant third.

In the race for LD7 State Senator, antisemite Republican Wendy Rogers looks to have turned back a challenge from David Cook.

In the race for LD1 State Senator, former legislator Mark Finchem has deposed incumbent Ken Bennett.  Both are well known election deniers, but Bennett may be the less insane of the two.

In CD8, Abe Hamadeh has won the R primary there.  Since that district is heavily Republican, we'll end up with another lousy human being in Arizona's delegation to Congress.  The best thing about the result is that Peter Theil (Blake Masters' sugar daddy) may stop trying to buy a federal office from AZ.

In CD1,  former legislator Amish Shah is ahead in the race the challenge incumbent David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged) in November.

And lastly, Kari Lake has emerged from the R primary for US Senator, earning the chance to face off against Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in November.

His best chance is if Lake keeps being herself.

Primary ballots are in!

I received it on 7/5.

There aren't many races on the Democratic side.  As you can see. :)

The big one on my ballot is the six-way race in CD1 for a chance to take on Republican David Schweikert in the general election.

Being a former Republican isn't a dealbreaker for me (the Republican Party has gotten so extreme [and anti-society] that any member of the GOP who's even within sniffing distance of being a decent human being has left it.)

Being a former supporter of Jan Brewer isn't quite a dealbreaker, either.  Much closer, though.  She was a profoundly lousy governor.

Being someone who voted for Cheeto *is* a dealbreaker, though.  He was and is a profoundly lousy human being and anyone who wants to be a member of Congress should be smart enough to see that.  And decent enough to be bothered by that.

Having said all of that, I will vote for a candidate in the primary, Kurt Kroemer.

On the other hand, I fully expect that whichever candidate emerges victorious from the primary will run as R-lite in the general.

Bottom line: we don't need a second iteration of Kyrsten Sinema in D.C. and I won't hold my nose when I vote, ever again.  I won't vote for Schweikert, but I may skip the race entirely.

Also, I expect that the candidate and certain party officers to be simply aghast to see an R-lite candidate lose to an R.  Yet again.

In the LD8 primary for state representative, I'll be voting for Juan Mendez and Brian Garcia.  

I've known Mendez for years and supported him in previous runs for office and he's done a good job in those offices.  I'm happy to vote for him again.

As for Garcia, I've never met him, but while I'm not a fan of endorsements, he's been endorsed by someone I respect greatly.

In the race for Arizona Corporation Commission, I have no opinion.  Three people, Joshua Polacheck, Ylenia Aguilar, and Jonathon Hill are on the ballot.

In the race for Maricopa County Sheriff, working for Joe Arpaio is a dealbreaker...in the primary.  Like Cheeto, Arpaio was and is a profoundly lousy human being.

As such, I'll be voting for Tyler Kamp.

If he makes it though the primary, though, Russ Skinner will get my vote in the general.  The Republican candidates are all running on a platform of "I'm more like Joe than thou."

I expect my elected officials like county sheriff and county attorney to be seen and not heard.  By that, I mean that I should know nothing about them.

The former sheriff, Paul Penzone, was quiet.

When Arpaio was in office, the old joke was that the most dangerous spot to be in AZ was any place between him and a TV camera.

The best thing for Tim Stringham in his quest to be county recorder might be for Stephen Richer to lose in the Republican primary

Richer is the current Maricopa County Recorder.

I spent some time watching the R debate for Maricopa County Recorder, sponsored by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission and the Arizona Media Association.

Richer seems, well, "competent."

Justin Heap, a current state legislator, was simply a conspiracy theory-spouting hot mess.

However, the other R primary candidate, Donald Hiatt, made Heap seem polished and well-rounded.

During his opening statement, at the 6:04 mark, he conflated the Ten Commandments with the U.S. Constitution.

And things went downhill from there.

In his defense, he did frequently point out that he is not a politician.

It showed.

If R voters like vagueness, they'll vote for Heap or Hiatt.

Stringham is probably hoping they do.

To realistically quote Maricopa County Republican: "Wah! The rules don't apply to us! Wah!"

From KJZZ, written by Wayne Schutsky -

Maricopa County Republicans sue elections officials to add LD29 candidate to ballot

Republicans in Maricopa County are suing election officials in an attempt to place a new legislative candidate on the July primary ballot to replace a candidate who withdrew from the race.

State law allows local political parties to pick a new candidate to replace withdrawn candidates, a process that played out earlier this month when Democrats in Legislative District 8 chose Lauren Kuby to replace Rep. Melody Hernandez, who dropped out of the district’s state Senate race.

Republicans in the West Valley’s Legislative District 29 held a similar vote on May 16, picking James Taylor to replace Rep. Austin Smith, who withdrew from the Republican primary for the district’s two seats in the Arizona House of Representatives.

But, unlike with LD8 Democrats, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office rejected Taylor’s nomination. The Secretary of State’s Office said the law requires parties to name those replacements before ballots are printed and cited a May 13 printing deadline set by Maricopa County, the body administering the LD29 primary election. 

[snip]

But the spokeswoman previously confirmed that the county set a May 13 deadline in order to meet its printing deadlines.

The law in question is ARS 16-343.

Note: I live in LD8 and was notified of the Democratic emergency election on 5/9, which was held (I believe; as I'm no longer a PC, I didn't pay close attention to it) on 5/11.

Dear Democratic primary voters in LD8: Please write in Lauren Kuby for state senate

Failed candidate David Alger fronted a legal challenge to the one Democratic candidate for state senate in LD8, Rep. Melody Hernandez.

It was successful, in that she withdrew from the race, leaving the Democratic ballot in that district with no candidate for the state senate seat on the ballot.

One person has stepped into the gap. - Lauren Kuby, a former member of the Tempe City Council and long-time community activist.

I don't expect everyone to agree with me on everything (they should though, as I'm always right,  Just ask me. :) )

However, I do expect that all of my elected officials to be decent and honorable human beings, and Lauren falls squarely into that category. 

As she's running as a write-in candidate, she'll need at least 405 people to write her name on their primary ballots in order for her to appear on the general election ballot.

And she easily deserves that.

Note: I've linked to her campaign website on the sidebar to the right.  If you can donate to her campaign, please do so.

Q1 fundraising totals are in

This post only covers significant federal candidates (IMO) who submitted nominating sigs to the Arizona Secretary of State.  Some may be knocked off of a ballot due to legal challenges.

The most interesting thing was not one of the money entries, but one of the signature totals - Kari Lake secured precisely 0 of her signatures on paper.  

I admit, I don't know much about R primaries or candidates, but someone who exhibits an aversion to going door-to-door or who can't inspire volunteers to do so probably isn't going to do well. 

All money totals obtained from page 2 of the candidates' Q1 2024 filings