Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts

Saturday, November 25, 2023

Fasten your seatbelts: 2023 was an interesting year but just a prelude to the bumpy ride that will be 2024

I know that it's early and later writers will do summaries that are both longer and less Maricopa County-centric.

Having said that, there are a number of developments in the political world here in AZ in 2023 that will have effects in 2024.

1. It started in 2022 (actually, it may have started before that when it became obvious that she was a lousy US Senator, but it become official in 2022), but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's  change from the Democratic Party to Unaffiliated has set up a 2024 election race that involves Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (I'm not predicting that she will win her primary, but as of now, I'm presuming that she will be the nominee) and, perhaps, Sinema herself (if she mounts a third party run).

From CNBC, dated 12/9/2022 -

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party to become

 

independent

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has switched parties to become an independent, complicating the Democrats’ narrow control of the U.S. Senate.

Sinema said in a tweet Friday that she was declaring her “independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent.”

It's a statewide race, but since Maricopa County has ~60% of the state's population and registered voters, the race is considered to be Maricopa-centric.

2. The decision by Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to not seek re-election in 2024.  Her decision has set off a massive primary battle for north/northwestern Maricopa County district.  Not every R running for the seat actually lives in the district, but that's not required per the US Constitution and since this is a safe R seat, no R candidate will pass this one by.

I'm actually a little surprised that former Phoenix city council member Sal DiCiccio and perennial candidate Rodney Glassman haven't jumped into the race.

On the other hand, it's early yet. :)

From AP, dated 10/17/2023 -

US Rep. Debbie Lesko won’t seek re-election in Arizona next year

U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko announced Tuesday that she will not run for office next year.

The Arizona Republican has decided to spend more time with family.

In a statement, Lesko, 64, said traveling every month to Washington, D.C. has been difficult and that “D.C. is broken.”

None of the Rs running to replace will "unbreak" D.C.

3. The announcement by Democrat Paul Penzone that not only will he not seek re-election as Maricopa County Sheriff in 2024, he'll resign from the job in January.

From Arizona's Family, written by their digital news staff and Micaela Marshall, dated 10/2/2023 -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

As off this writing, only three committees are open for a run at the office - one by Penzone himself, one by Joe Arpaio, the man Penzone defeated in 2016 (but that committee is very old and may not be intended for a run in 2024) and one by Jerry Sheridan, a former Arpaio henchman/deputy.  However, he formed his committee well before Penzone's announcement.  He was going to run regardless of everything else.

4. The first three items listed are "horse race" matters and will receive scads of attention from the MSM, if only because they're easy to report on.

However, while not as easy to report on, the next issue may be more significant.  It's about how races are run. I've listed it here at #4, but it may end up being the most significant issue in 2024.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/26/2023 -

98% of Arizonans will have new elections officials in 2024, report finds

Arizona has lost nearly all of its experienced election officials and 98% of the state will have new officials running elections in 2024 than ran the 2020 elections, a new report found. 

The Grand Canyon State has been center stage for election misinformation since 2020, with efforts such as the Arizona Senate Republicans’ “audit” of the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake’s continuing efforts to overturn her 2022 loss in the race for governor.

The state has also seen threats of violence towards election officials and those who help administer elections. Five recent cases from the U.S. Department of Justice were all from Arizona that included individuals who called for election officials to be killed and in some areas, such as in Yavapai County, one official ended up needing security from the local sheriff at their home.

This isn't just an Arizona problem, it's a national one.  

From The Union of Concerned Scientists' The Equation, dated 10/18/2023 -

2024 Election Workers Need Better Protection from Harassment

Most election workers are probably like my late mother-in-law. Mary Holmes spent many of her senior years volunteering at the polls in Cambridge, MA. She considered this work a part of her civic duty, just as she had decades earlier when she volunteered as a school traffic guard.  

She never voiced a moment of fear, either from motorists who respected her waving of arms and her reflective vest, or from voters, many of whom hurriedly hustled in and out of the ballot box on their way to work or on the way home from work to dinner. I cannot recall anything specific she ever said about this work. It was just what you did in a community. Her many years of service spoke for themselves about her pride in playing a seemingly small role in democracy.

We’ve learned more in recent years about how large a role she actually played. The mobs of January 6, 2021 and the malevolent harassment of election workers and officials all over the nation by deniers of the 2020 defeat of former President Donald Trump have left this slice of democracy on an unprecedented precipice. According to a report released last month by Issue One, a nonpartisan democracy think tank, roughly 40 percent of chief local elections officials in 11 western states have left their posts since the 2020 election.


The Issue One report referenced in both articles is here.


Wednesday, November 08, 2023

Election night 2023: The vast majority of ballot questions in Maricopa County pass

The full list of County results is here, courtesy Maricopa County Elections.

By my count, 11 questions out of 50 here failed.*

* = All results are unofficial and some may change when the final totals are tallied.



Overall, it was a good night for proponents of good government...and a bad night for certain anti-society ideologues (we'll can call them "Republicans")


Saturday, August 26, 2023

Election deniers get rebuffed...again

From KJZZ, by Greg Hahne and Howard Fischer of Capitol Media Services -

AZ Supreme Court tosses Scottsdale attorney election challenge

The Arizona Supreme Court has thrown out a bid to void the results of the entire 2022 election.

The justices said the appeal from a Scottsdale attorney was flawed in multiple ways.  

In a brief order Thursday, the majority of the justices noted that lawyer Ryan Heath had cited evidence already introduced by Kari Lake in another case this year.

Heath, who represented Cochise County Supervisor Tim Crosby, was asking the Supreme Court to order Maricopa County to redo its early ballot signature verification process.

 

A Scottsdale attorney repping a Cochise County supervisor wanting to void an election in Maricopa County?

Is that kind of geography lesson on Arizona's bar exam?


Sunday, July 09, 2023

MAGAts/Trumpkins like to refer to anyone they don't like as "communists". Maybe we should refer to them as what they really are. Anarchists.

Their Dear Leader (Cheeto) habitually refers to people as communists.

They're now referring to Barbie as a communist.

Even in the past, they hurled that as an epithet directed at anyone who opposed them.

It's an old tactic, one that was crap when it was used in the 50s and 60s, and it's crap now.  It seems to be part of the "spaghetti defense" portion of the war on civil society (throw a bunch of it against the wall, and see if anything sticks).


Now, the self-proclaimed arbiters of "election integrity" are finding that their tactics are coming home to bite them in the ass.

From Politico -

GOP states quit the program that fights voter fraud. Now they’re scrambling.

Over the past year and a half, eight Republican-led states quit a nonpartisan program designed to keep voter rolls accurate and up to date.

Top Republican election officials in those states publicly argued the program was mismanaged. The conspiracy theorists who cheered them on falsely insisted it was a front for liberals to take control of elections.

But experts say the program, known as the Electronic Registration Information Center, was among the best nationwide tool states had to catch people trying to vote twice in the same election. Now, those Republican-led states who left — and other states who lost access to their data — are scrambling to police so-called “double voters” ahead of the presidential election in 2024.


In recent months, elections officials in Ohio — one of the states that led the flight from ERIC — and elsewhere have been quietly convening leaders from dozens of states to talk about ways they can still work together to try to catch double-voters.


So, based on the available evidence (all left but them), their Plan A was to criticize civil society and destroy good government yet their follow-up Plan B is...nothing 

Their Plan B seems to be chaos; destroy what *is*, but offer nothing better to replace it.

Sounds like their Plan B is pure anarchy.


Sunday, February 19, 2023

Best news about Election 2023? Sal DiCiccio is term limited

Note: I live in Phoenix Council District 8.  DiCiccio represents District 6.


This came up while I was considering my vote -













From The Ahwatukee Foothills News, dated January 11, 2023 (emphasis added by me)-

Election 2022 isn’t over as voters decide District 6 seat

Ahwatukee voters haven’t seen the end of the 2022 election cycle and have one more vote to cast.

That will be to decide whether Kevin Robinson or Sam Stone will replace Sal DiCiccio as their representative on Phoenix City Council. Term limits precluded DiCiccio from running again.



I've never said anything positive about the character of any member of the political class in New York/New Jersey, but even there, he'd be considered a piece of work.

My guess is that he's not done with us yet - he may be looking at the R primary for 2024 US Senate or for a run at Greg Stanton's seat in Congress.


Sunday, November 27, 2022

Know what the two election-denying counties in AZ have in common? Republican former legislators in significant elected offices.

Not that there are any insignificant ones...though Katie Hobbs might argue that some are more significant than others. :)


Two Arizona counties, Cochise and Mohave, have proclaimed that they won't certify their election results until the last minute, if even then.


The two counties are located in diametrically opposite parts of the state, with Cochise being in the southeast corner of the state while Mohave is in the northwest corner. 

From the University of Arizona -






















While the counties are in opposite parts of the state, they do share something in common....aside from being dusty and rural Republican strongholds.

In Cochise County, the elected Recorder is David Stevens, a former state representative.  He was in the lege from 2009 thru 2016.  He regularly earned failing grades from organizations like the Sierra Club and laudatory grades from organizations like the Goldwater Institute and the Arizona Small Business Association when there.  He also regularly sponsored or cosponsored a litany of anti-voter and anti-choice bills.

In Mohave County, one member of the board of supervisors there is Ron Gould, a former state senator, one who makes Attila the Hun look like a bleeding heart liberal.


To be sure, the election-denying extremism in Arizona isn't limited to *former* legislators:

Outgoing state senator Kelly Townsend has issued a baseless subpoena to Maricopa County over the 2022 election.

Returning state senator Ken Bennett was the face of the "fraudit."

Newby state representative Alexander Kolodin is an attorney who has not only represented Anthony Kern in a January 6th-related lawsuit, he's repping Cochise County in this matter.


While I expect the two counties to certify their election results (else the votes wouldn't count and a number of races would flip and become Democratic wins), I also expect that there will be a lot of self-righteous pearl clutching and foot stamping before that happens.


Monday, November 21, 2022

Election denying is public policy in certain AZ counties

Yes, {start sarcasm} shockingly {/end sarcasm} it's a Republican thing.

From The Hill, emphasis added by me -

Two Arizona counties delay certification of 2022 election results

Two rural Arizona counties have voted to delay certifying their ballot canvasses as some in the GOP claim voters were disenfranchised.

Cochise County, a Republican-leaning area in the state’s southeastern corner, delayed its certification on Friday after three conspiracy theorists claimed the county’s vote-counting machines were not properly certified. 

[snip]

In Mohave County, which is located in Arizona’s northwestern corner, the five Republicans who comprise the Board of Supervisors delayed their certification of the county canvass in a split vote on Monday.


If Cochise County is "Republican-leaning", then Mohave County is "overwhelmingly Republican".

From the latest voter registration figures from the Arizona Secretary of State -








From the AZ SOS' page regarding hand count audits, by county -














Apparently, in certain areas of the state, ideology Trumps reality.


Wednesday, November 09, 2022

Not a "red wave", though the "fraud" bleats will start soon

Tweets, I mean tweets. :)

Caveat: Since 2020, late votes tend to skew Republican, so the outcome of some of these races could flip.

From the AZ Secretary of State's website -

In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Mark Kelly looks to be comfortably ahead of Peter Thiel Blake Masters.  While the margin could shrink, I'll be really surprised if this one flips.





Too close to call:

CD1, where newby Jevin Hodge is leading embattled incumbent David Schweikert.

CD6, where Republican Juan Ciscomani is leading Democrat Kirsten Engel.






The other CDs went as expected, except in CD2, where Republican Eli Crane looks to be upsetting incumbent Democrat Tom O'Halleran.  Only time will tell if Crane will become AZ's version of Madison Cawthorn.





The top of the ballot state-level races are leaning Democratic at this point; though with one exception, all could flip (the one exception being Adrian Fontes leading Mark Finchem for AZ Secretary of State.











Two lower ballot statewide races are trending R.








Yee over Quezada isn't much of a surprise - Quezada had an uphill battle once Yee dropped out the R primary for governor.

Horne over incumbent Hoffman?  Surprising.  Guess that certain voters prefer corruption to competence.

The biggest disappointment, for me, anyway, was Lauren Kuby and Sandra Kennedy coming up short in the race for two seats on the Arizona Corporation Commission.














I've known Lauren for many years and thought she would have been a spectacular addition to the ACC.


Saturday, November 05, 2022

Bad headline: voters will have a say on abortion wherever an anti-choice Republican is on the ballot

...And/or, as here in AZ, where there are one or more anti-voting measures on the ballot. 

From NBC -

Voters will have a say on abortion in 5 states with high-stakes ballot measures

Millions of voters will soon determine the fate of abortion access in a handful of states, including Michigan, which could become the first to make an abortion ban permanently unenforceable since the fall of Roe v. Wade.

At the polls Tuesday, voters in California, Michigan and Vermont will decide whether to enshrine reproductive freedom rights in their state constitutions, while voters in Kentucky could do the opposite and explicitly conclude there should be no such protections. 

In Montana, if a ballot initiative passes, health care providers in the state could face criminal charges if they do not take “reasonable actions” to save an infant who is born alive, including after an attempted abortion.

"Millions" of voters in 5 states?


More like *every* voter in *every* state


Sunday, October 30, 2022

Early ballots: return 'em

On 10/28, Ron Williams at Blog for Arizona published a piece urging people that have early ballots to return them ASAP

He presented an idealistic argument for doing so, and was right, but I'm going to present a more practical argument.


When you know who you are going to vote for, vote and return your ballot.

 

It won't do anything about the ads permeating our radios and TVs, or do anything about the campaigns that don’t have enough money to buy lists of who has returned a ballot, but most of the texts and emails will stop.


I received my ballot on a Friday, and as I already knew who I was going to vote for, I filled it out and returned it on Saturday, dropping it off at the post office.  By Monday, I had received a text message from Maricopa County Elections telling me that my ballot had been received.


Within a few days, the candidate texts and/or emails had all but stopped.


I still get a few from PACs (the vast majority) or out-of-state candidates (not many), bur most have stopped.


If you have one, I recommend mailing by Tuesday (due to Trump-era cuts to USPS, service may be slower).  If you cannot mail it by then, drop it off in a secure drop box or at your polling place by 7 p, m. on election day.


The link goes to a list of drop box locations in Maricopa County.


Sunday, October 09, 2022

Early ballots hit mailboxes in Arizona this week; Don't ignore certain downballot races. like Arizona Corporation Commission

Caveat: I've known Lauren Kuby, one of the candidates for Arizona Corporation Commission, for years and have donated to her campaign.


In school, most of us learned that there are three branches of government - executive, legislative, and judicial.

In Arizona, there's a fourth, constitutionally-recognized, branch - the Corporation Commission.

It regulates corporations (as its name suggests), utilities (perhaps its most important duty) and securities.  


Lauren Kuby is not only someone who understands the impact of climate change on the average Arizona family and would be a tireless advocate for Arizona consumers, she's someone who takes elected office seriously (one of the things that's guaranteed to tick me off is when an elected doesn't doesn't take his/her job seriously, people who are legion here in AZ.  Actually, I think we've reached the point where someone who takes the job seriously cannot win an R primary.)


Anyway, federal candidates on the AZ ballot are here; statewide candidates are here; legislative here; state-level judicial here; and ballot measures here.

Blog for Arizona has posts on the topics here, here, and here.

The last is on the judicial retention ballot; I won't be voting to retain judges appointed by Doug Ducey.  The fact that Dougie likes someone doesn't speak well for their character.

Maricopa County candidates are here.


Tuesday, September 20, 2022

PSA time: REGISTER TO VOTE and then VOTE!

From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State -


Election DateElection TypeDeadline for Voter RegistrationDeadline to Request Ballot-by-MailEarly Voting Begins/Ballots Mailed if Requested


November 08, 2022State General ElectionOctober 11, 2022 at 11:59 PMOctober 28, 2022 at 5:00 PMOctober 12, 2022


The Secretary of State's Vote-By-Mail information page is here.

The AZ SOS' printable voter registration form is here.

Maricopa County's voter registration page is here.

ServiceArizona's online voter registration process starts here.


Sunday, August 14, 2022

Exhibit #229000 showing that Republicans hate elections that don't go their way

From the Kansas City Star -

Republican group’s credit card was offered to pay for Kansas abortion amendment recount

A credit card belonging to the Kansas Republican Assembly was provided to advance a statewide recount of the abortion amendment vote expected to cost more than $229,000, said Mark Gietzen, the group’s president and a strident anti-abortion activist. 


The amendment, called Value Them Both, would have stripped abortion rights from the Kansas Constitution. Instead the measure suffered a landslide 59% to 41% defeat, with 165,000 more voters rejecting the proposal than supporting it. 


Melissa Leavitt, of Colby, requested a recount of the vote before a 5 p.m. Friday deadline. Kansas requires a bond for the cost of the recount before it begins, and a crowd-funding page had raised less than $5,000 as of Saturday afternoon.


Thursday, August 04, 2022

Primary Day: Nationally, A Bit of a Mixed Bag For Cheeto, But In Arizona, He Did Well (For The Most Part)

In fact, I can only think of a couple of instances where R voters didn't pick one of his faves.


One thing was made clear by the results of the R primary - R voters have thoroughly embraced bigotry, hatred, and conspiracy theories.  Their inner MAGA isn't too far from the surface.


Caveat: Totals can and will change, but it appears that only a couple of the races are close enough where late-counted votes might make a difference in the final outcome/winner.


First, the best news of the night, and it's not even Arizona-related:

From AP -

Kansas voters resoundingly protect their access to abortion

Kansas voters on Tuesday sent a resounding message about their 

desire to protect abortion rights, rejecting a ballot measure in a 

conservative state with deep ties to the anti-abortion movement 

that would have allowed the Republican-controlled Legislature 

to tighten restrictions or ban the procedure outright.


It was the first test of voter sentiment after the U.S. Supreme Court’s 

decision in June that overturned the constitutional 

right to abortion, providing an unexpected result with 

potential implications for the coming midterm elections.


Now the bad news:

Republican Blake Masters won the R primary for U.S. Senate.  Cheeto will take credit for it, but my guess is that Peter Thiel's massive financial support for his vassal may have made more of a difference.















...In CD2, Republican Ron Watkins, the man who (allegedly) put the "Q" in "QAnon" finished 7th in a seven-way primary.





The ultimate winner, who will go on to face Democrat Tom O'Halleran in the general, was Eli Crane.






...In CD9, Arizona's resident bigot in Congress, Republican Paul Gosar, was easily victorious in his primary.













...In the Democratic primary in CD6, Kirsten Engel defeated Daniel Hernandez in her primary.











She will move on to face Republican Juan Ciscomani in the general.

















...In the race for governor Democrat Katie Hobbs handily won her primary.











In the general, she'll go on to face...I don't know.  The race between Trump-endorsed Kari Lake and Ducey- and Pence-endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson is too close to call.
















...Another race that is close is the race for the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State.








The winner of the race will go on to face trumpkin Mark Finchem in the general.













Finchem at the January 6 insurrection, pic courtesy the AZ Mirror













...Republicans Abraham Hamedah, Kimberly Yee, and Tom Horne won their respective primaries for Attorney General, Treasurer, and Superintendent of Public Instruction against Democrats Kris Mayes, Martin Quezada, and Kathy Hoffman, who were unopposed in their respective primaries.












...Another race that is too close to call is the nomination part of Ken Bennett's quest to return to the state senate, from LD1.  I don't know if he's Trump-endorsed, but he fronted the fraudit.  Guessing he's a Cheeto fave.








...A race that is also close, but not as close as this one, is the State Senate race in LD3.








...Arizona's Republican voters in one district had a choice.  They could have voted for loony or loonier.  They chose loonier.

Trump fave Wendy Rogers is going on to the general in LD7.








...R voters showed their hatred for anyone who tells the truth about Cheeto by voting against House Speaker Rusty Bowers is attempt to move to the Senate.








Note: Farnworth is a former legislator.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Everything above the line was written on Wednesday; while vote totals may change, unless the victors change I won't update the post.


...Nominal Democrat Catherine Miranda is looking to return to the legislature; maybe she'll make it official this time and caucus with the Republicans.










....Insurrectionist Anthony Kern is returning to the legislature.








...Keep an eye on Alexander Kolodin in LD3.  He finished 2nd in the R primary for state representative there.  However, since two are elected and since no Democrats ran, he's going to the legislature.

He's also heavily involved in the fake electors scheme to overturn Arizona's 2020 election results.  And the plot to overturn the election itself.  And other things related to the insurrection.
















...In Maricopa County races..

- Thomas Galvin won the R primary for the District 2 seat on the county Board of Supervisors.  He won't face a Democrat in the general.  He was appointed to the seat last December.  Interesting note: Former legislator Thayer Verschoor finished last in the primary.

- Rachel Mitchell won the R primary for County Attorney.  She'll face Democrat Julie Gunnigle in the general.








...Senate Democratic leader Rebecca Rios isn't running for re-election to the legislature, but her political career isn't over - she defeated long-time JP Cody Williams in the D primary for the JP slot in the South Mountain justice precinct.  She'll be unopposed in the general.




...And the second-best news of the night is actually Arizona-related.

Joe Arpaio *lost* his race for mayor of Fountain Hills.

Guess the current mayor, Ginny Dickey, has done too good a job there (she has) or is too well-liked personally (she is).




Maricopa County and City results here; Federal, State, and Legislative results here.


Thursday, June 30, 2022

Maybe Finchem et. al. should take notice of the primary results in CO

From CNN -

Colorado Republicans reject 3 election deniers for statewide office

On the same day a former aide to President Donald Trump's chief of staff testified about how Trump had wanted to join the throngs of his supporters at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, Republicans in Colorado on Tuesday rejected three election deniers running for statewide office.

Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters, who pleaded not guilty after being indicted earlier this year on 10 counts related to voting machine tampering allegations, lost the GOP nomination to take on Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold in November. Pam Anderson, a former Jefferson County clerk, will win the Republican nomination, CNN projects.
In Colorado's GOP Senate primary, voters rejected state Rep. Ron Hanks, who showed up at the Capitol on January 6 and, though he has said he did not enter the building, has gone on to spread false claims and debunked theories about voter fraud. Businessman Joe O'Dea will win the nomination to face Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, CNN projects.
    And in the state's GOP governor primary, Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, outside of Denver, lost to Heidi Ganahl, a member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents, CNN projects. Unlike Ganahl, who views Colorado's election results as valid, even if she's avoided questions about the national results, Lopez has said he believes Trump won the 2020 election. Ganahl will try to unseat Democratic Gov. Jared Polis this fall.

    Bet that Congress critters Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar are worried right about now, though Biggs is probably less worried than Gosar.

    Biggs is facing only write-in candidates in his primary; Gosar has something of a cluster**** of a primary.

















    Of course, while Biggs may be less worried about the election than Gosar, I expect that he's more worried than Debbie Lesko, who faces no primary challengers and only a write-in challenge in the general election -