Kari Lake may be saying good things trying to make nice with the folks she trashed last year. Her actions suggest that she hasn't really changed.

First up: The federal committee update.

It's official - failed AG candidate Abe Hamadeh is in the CD8 R primary.  He's formed a committee with the FEC.

Next: Kari Lake may be saying the right things, but she seems to be proving that when someone's words tell one story and their actions tell a different story.

The actions?

Working with another election denier.

From the FEC (emphasis added by me) -

Cynic that I am, I'm not sure that being seen as anti-democracy hurts her with the R base.

On the other hand, being seen as a liar may not help her.

Senate reports are in*

* = Kari Lake entered the race too late to have to file a report this time around.

Net contributions and refunds are for the reported quarter (Q3 2023) while cash on hand is for the end of the quarter.

A few takes:

Ruben Gallego is doing well.  He's got more than $5 million in cash on hand and the vastness of his filing (10K+ pages!) indicates that many of his contributions are from small donors.

Mark Lamb is toast now that Lake is in the race.

Sinema is an interesting case.  She raised the least amount of cash and has the smallest filing of the three.  She also has the most cash on hand; actually, she has more than twice the total of Gallego, who's doing well.

She may not be raising much, but she's stockpiling what she has.

My guess is that she has one of three plans in place for the money (there may be others, but these seem to be the most likely to me):.

1. She intends to run for re-election, and is saving the cash for that.

2. She has found a way, or hopes to find a way, to keep the money for herself.  There are restrictions against doing just that, but if anyone has the smarts to figure out a way around them, she's got 'em.

3. She intends to gift the cash to one of the other candidates (Lake?).  Given her track record, this seems to the least likely of the three.

Looking at her report (hoping for some insight), I was struck by two questions -

1. She's reporting all contributions as being for the primary. As an I, though, she's not going to face a primary.  On the other hand, their may be some arcane FEC rule on the subject and this may be an actual violation.

2. She's still fundraising through ActBlue.  I thought that was a platform only for Democratic candidates and committees, and she is resoundingly not one.

Federal committees update

 From the FEC's website - 

Both are Republicans.

Crane is looking to run in CD1 against Tom O'Halleran; Winn is looking to be the R nominee in CD2, currently held by the retiring Ann Kirkpatrick.

The interesting part is that while Winn is running for Congress in a Pima County-based district, she's currently an at-large member of the governing board of the Maricopa County Community College District.

The switch is legal, but I can already hear the cries of "carpetbagger!" emanating from the R primary field there.

Update: Campaign Committees

There have been a few developments on the 2012 campaign committee front since the last update.


...In the race for US Senate, Don Bivens, attorney and former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, has formed a committee.  According to Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's The Fix, the committee is an exploratory one, and Bivens has said that he will make a final decision on running around Labor Day.

...In legislative developments -

- Former state legislator David Bradley has formed an exploratory committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD28 state senate.

- Martin Quezada has formed an exploratory committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD13 state representative.

- Lorenzo Sierra Jr. has formed an exploratory committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD13 state representative.

- Michael Snitz has formed a committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD14 state representative.

Note:  all of the districts listed will change once the Independent Redistricting Commission puts together the new maps.

Active Congressional committee fundraising totals (April thru June) (incumbents italicized):

Raul Grijalva (D) - $88233 raised, $70724 on hand
Chuck Gray (R) - $3359 raised, $16443 on hand
Trent Franks (R) - $59507 raised, $41068 on hand, $372477 in debt
David Schweikert (R) - $2230 raised, $17881 on hand, $501800 in debt
David Schweikert (R) (2nd committee) - $250777 raised, $336262 on hand
Gabrielle Giffords (D) - $281177 raised, $787949 on hand
Travis Grantham (R) - $13300 raised, $13240 on hand
Kirk Adams (R) - $230525 raised, $209225 on hand
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) - $221289 raised, $215723 on hand
Paul Gosar (R) - $166544 raised, $138392 on hand
Ed Pastor (D) - $93158 raised, $1391488 on hand
Ben Quayle (R) - $282964 raised, $370277 on hand, $7487 in debt
Matt Salmon (R) - $162289 raised, $155744 on hand, $16889 in debt
Gabriela Saucedo Mercer (R) - $22397 raised, $21351 on hand, $485 in debt
Wenona Benally Baldenegro (D) - $8446 raised, $4603 on hand

Note: because incumbent US Representative Jeff Flake is now running for US Senate, his fundraising reports are not available online.

Note2: All numbers rounded to the nearest dollar.

Note3: I didn't list the district of the Congressional committees because those are going to change in a few months.

Observation:  Aren't the Republicans the ones who campaign on their opposition to debt?  Just sayin'...

- No changes in municipal campaign committees in Tempe and Scottsdale, though that should change soon - sources report that there is a poll in the field regarding the Tempe mayor's race. Some say it's a push poll, others say it's legit. I'm not a Tempe resident, so I didn't get the calls and cannot evaluate it directly.

Later...

New AZ campaign contribution limits

The Arizona Secretary of State's office has formulated new campaign contribution limits for statewide, legislative and local campaigns.  These are valid for the 2011 - 2012 election cycle for Arizona races.  Races for Federal offices have their own limits, published by the Federal Election Commission.

The limits are set under ARS 16-905.  While the limits were specifically set in the statute initially, paragraph H of the statute creates a mechanism for biennial adjustments.

The new AZ limits -

Individual contributions to a candidate:

Local - $430
Legislative - $424
Statewide -  $872

Political committee contributions to a candidate:

Local - $430
Legislative - $424
Statewide - $872

Committees certified by the AZSOS as "SuperPACs":

Local - $2170
Legislative - $1736
Statewide - $4352

Combined total from all political committees other than political parties:

Local - $10880
Legislative - $14032
Statewide - $86952

Nominee's total from political party and all political organizations combined:

Local - $10880
Legislative - $8704
Statewide - $86952

Total contributed by an individual to candidates and committees who give to candidates:

$6100 per calendar year


The new federal limits are here.

While I won't list them all, the important one for most readers is the individual contribution limit to a candidate - $2500, for each of the primary election and for the general election ($5000 total).

Later...

AZ-Sen starting line: Some candidates have a head start

While any candidate who jumps into for the US Senate will be sure to start raising money, some potential candidates already have a head start.  They already have federal campaign committees formed, and even if the committees are for some other office, the cash can be transferred to a Senate run.

The most recent "cash on hand" reported for the federal campaign committees of selected possible candidates -

Republicans -

JD Hayworth - $148,224.47

Jeff Flake - $627,851.61

John Shadegg - $154.99

David Schweikert - $16,308.33

Ruth McClung - $107,649.87 (included because she has so much cash on hand)

Jonathan Paton - $12,389.26

Ben Quayle - $7607.04


Democrats -

Ed Pastor - $1,391,936.29

Gabrielle Giffords - $285,501.24

Raul Grijalva - $30,621.77

Ann Kirkpatrick - $13,896.86


Just for giggles -

Joe Arpaio - $2,829,160.00

That number is worthy of giggles because while it dwarfs every other potential candidate's cash on hand, it doesn't matter - it's for his county sheriff candidacy and cannot be transferred to a federal committee.


While there has been a little internet chatter over a possible Pastor candidacy and his well-stocked campaign warchest and some of the other potential candidates have little or no cash for a federal campaign, once a legit candidate enters the race he or she will be able to raise money quickly.

Of course, they'll have to.  :)

David Schweikert: "Master Of The Budget Numbers", or "Master Of The Lobbyist Payoff Game"?

David Schweikert (R-Club for Growth) was the subject of a recent puff piece on the conservative news site Human Events (of course, calling it a "news" site is like calling Bristol Palin a "dancer").

The writer lauded Schweikert (as Schweikert lauded himself) for being a "fiscal conservative" and touting his desire to rein in federal debt.

Schweikert feels that government spending beyonds its means is dreadful and must be stopped at all costs except, possibly, for raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations.  He has even proposed an amendment to the U.S. Constitution, H.J. Res. 23, that would mandate that the federal budget be balanced (no text available online yet as the measure was introduced just yesterday).

That feeling, however, doesn't apply to his *own* spending.  Nope, he's a lot more "flexible" where that is concerned.

According to his most recent FEC filing, his campaign has a little more that $16K cash on hand, while over $500K in debt and loan obligations, almost all to himself ($500K in loans).

Not to worry though, as Schweikert is a man with a plan.

In this case, he's got a lobbyist schmoozefest/begging session scheduled for Thursday in DC.

Information on the event, courtesy the Sunlight Foundation -

For: David Schweikert (R, AZ-5)
When: Feb. 10th, 2011 (6 p.m.)
Where: Acadiana - 901 New York Ave NW
Type of Event: Dinner
Contribution Information: $2,500 Host; $1,000 PAC; $500 Individual
Make Checks Payable To: Manzullo for Congress - PO Box 368 Falls Church, VA 22040
RSVP: Meredith Hurt; mhurt@thehammondgrp.com

This looks a whole lot like money laundering, and I'm not talking about the "Make Checks Payable To: Manzullo for Congress" instruction - I *think* that's a typo as both Schweikert and Don Manzullo (R-IL16) are both clients of Hammond and Associates, a Republican fundraising "consultant."  They (Hammond and Associates) have the same mailing address on their website as is listed on the invitation.

Basically, Schweikert has officially "loaned" his campaigns (2008 and 2010) half a million dollars and now as a sitting member of Congress, he is now reaching out for lobbyist handouts to pay for his profligate personal spending.

At this point, I'd normally make a crack about watching for Schweikert to place advocating for the interests of corporations before advocating for the interests of his official constituents, the people of Arizona's 5th Congressional District.

However, it's long been known that if someone's last name can't be abbreviated "Corp.", "Inc.", or "LLC", Foreclosure Dave isn't there for them*.

* = One exception:  If that someone's job title can be abbreviated "CEO"...

P.S. - If you don't believe me, check out the list of contributors from his most recent FEC filing (linked above).

Perhaps if Schweikert wants people to believe that he is truly an advocate for fiscal responsibility, he should try, you know, *being* fiscally responsible.  Right now, however, it looks like the only things that differentiates him from JD Hayworth, the most recent Republican to hold the AZ5 seat, are visibly longer hair and no visible ties to Jack Abramoff.

Of course, Abramoff was released from confinement less than two months ago, so it may take a little more time for him to rebuild his "circle of influence."

FEC Reports - Congressional primary races

Some of these are eye-opening...

All info courtesy the website of the Federal Election Commission, reporting period 7/1/2010 thru 8/4/2010 (three weeks before the primary)...

In order of interest to me (call it "blogger's privilege" or something :) ) -

CD5

Schweikert: $225529.45 cash on hand, raised slightly less than $36K during the period, spent over $244K.  Debt of $500K (to himself).

Ward: $172944.21 on hand, raised $28657, spent $264K, $315548.83 in debt.

Bitter Smith: $48454.60 on hand, raised less than $20K, spent slightly less than $83K, $81329.02 debt.

Salvino: $27.6K on hand, raised less than $10K, spent more than $91K, debt of $210958.04.

Spinks: $41.82 cash on hand (not "41.82K" but forty-one dollars and eighty-two cents), raised $170, spent $557, no debt.

Gentry:  I couldn't find a report for the most recent reporting period.

Analysis*: It isn't over per se, but Salvino, Spinks and Gentry are toast, and Bitter Smith is on life support.  Ward has a shot, but Schweikert seems to think he has it wrapped up, and is coasting a little, ticking off supporters of some of the other candidates.

These folks seem to be Republican B-teamers - perennial wannabes looking for one last shot at glory or carpetbaggers looking for a district where they can buy a nomination.  Not talking smack here, one of these folks could move up to A-team status (Bitter Smith and Schweikert have held offices before, and Ward has access to cash), but they've got it to prove.


CD3

Crump: Less than $7300 on hand, raised $11456, spent slightly over $17K.  No debt.

Gorman: Less than $26K on hand, raised $14K, spent $5371.  No debt.

Morris: Slightly more than $40K on hand, raised $16K, spent $74K, $50K debt.

Moak: $121K on hand, raised a little more than $15K, spent more than $577K.  Debt of more than $592K ($300K in this period alone).

Parker: $63K on hand, raised $36K, spent $123K, debt of $26431.60.

Quayle: $429K on hand, raised $218K, spent $473K, $1223 debt.

Waring: $29.5K on hand, raised $17K, spent $81K, debt of $41K.

Winkler: $24.5K on hand, raised $5225, spent $8253, no debt.

I cannot find reports for the other candidates (Branch, Hull).

Analysis*: Based on the money numbers, the race is between Quayle (tapping Daddy's friends for cash) and Moak (placing a big bet on his own candidacy), but Parker, Waring, Gorman, and Morris still have a heartbeat.  In a free-for-all like this one, money for mailers and ad buys may not mean as much as an effective street-level GOTV machine.  Crump, Winkler, Branch, and Hull are done.  Quayle should be just as done after his recent gaffes, but Daddy's money and name may purchase some short memories among GOP primary voters.

Probably the strongest set of candidates that the GOP has fielded this year (3 former legislators, 2 former mayors, 1 son of a former USVP, a well-funded businessman, and Morris, who is moderate, female, intelligent, articulate, attractive, Jewish, and Cuban.  In Florida, they'd have already cancelled the election and administered the oath of office to her, but in AZ she'll be lucky to break out of single digits), but they are slicing each other to ribbons and whittling down the funds that donors will have available in the general election.  Look for lots of independent expenditures from GOP-friendly groups as they try to retain this seat in the general.


CD8

Paton: almost $187K on hand, raised $46K, spent $146K, debt of slightly less than $13K.

Kelly: almost $79K on hand, raised $78K, spent $159K, no debt.

The other candidates have dropped out or haven't filed reports that I can find.

Analysis*:  This race could be the one to watch - Paton is the candidate of the GOP "establishment" and may be the better general election candidate, but Kelly has enough Tea Party support to pull the upset, and enough cash to make a last minute push.


CD7

McClung: $15K on hand, raised slightly less than $11K, spent slightly less than $18K, debt of $2300.

Myers: more than $23K on hand, raised $1820, spent $56K, debt of more than $95K.

I couldn't find reports for the other candidates. 

Analysis*: The top GOP candidates to unseat Raul Grijalva raised less than $13K between them.  Candidates who are toast in other districts were able to raise more.  Any other questions? 


CD1

Bowers: A little more than $10K on hand, raised $11K, spent a little less than $15K, no debt.

Gosar: Nearly $41K on hand, raised slightly less than $40K, spent $130K, no debt.

Hay: More than $116K on hand, raised $32K, spent $60K, debt of $100K.

Jensen: Reporting $1195 cash on hand on the summary page, but also reports $1595 raised and $1595 spent.  Hand-written reports, wife or other relative as treasurer.  'Nuff said.

Mehta: Less than $2600 on hand, raised $7300, spent $25K, debt of slight less than $11K.

I could not locate reports for the other candidates.

Analysis*: Hay's got the cash, Gosar seems to have the momentum.  Hay may be holding on to the cash to pay down her debt after the primary.  If the CD5 Rs are B-teamers, these folks are C- and D- teamers.


CD4

Contreras: $2500 on hand, raised $6800, spent $4300, $25K in debt.

Penalosa hasn't filed a report that I could find, but his July report showed numbers in line with Contreras'.

Analysis*: Either one could win the R nomination, though considering that incumbent Ed Pastor has $1.5 million on hand, I'm not sure that qualifies as a good thing for whichever one wins the nod. 


CD2

Black reports $69 (not $69000 or even $6900, but *$69.00* cash on hand in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Franks (cash on hand of $69K).


CD6

Smith reports cash on hand of $5593 in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Flake (almost $800K on hand).

Analysis*: Both Franks and Flake face primary challenges from the right, of all places, but other than the hardcore Tea Party types, no one can say (with a straight face, anyway) that Franks and Flake are "too liberal" to be "good" Republicans.  The lack of financial support for the upstarts indicates that both are safe from serious intra-GOP challenges.

Key:  "Analysis*" equals "opportunity to let loose a little snark."

Note: The candidates who didn't file reports that I could locate are all long shots anyway, so I'm not worrying about them.  If one of them pulls out a primary victory, I'll eat my computer**.

** = Not really.  I will admit to making a mistake, however.  Call it "eating crow instead of a computer."

Note2: I didn't really cover the Democratic races because there aren't any primary races for Congressional seats.

Best and worst bargains - 2008 elections

Edit on 12/8 to update County numbers, below...

Post-General Election campaign finance reports are in, and normally this would be the time to do a really geeky and dry post listing figures for contributions, expenditures, cash on hand, etc. However, since the election results are in, I'm going to do something a little different.

Still geeky and dry, but different. :))

Today's post will list the best bargains (based on lowest expenditures per vote for election victors) and the worst bargains (based on highest expenditures per vote for election losers.)

The expenditure figures taken from the cycle-to-date boxes of the campaigns' post-general reports; vote totals taken from the appropriate reporting authority, either the AZ Secretary of State or the Maricopa County Recorder.

Best Bargain - AZ Congressional races

Republican Trent Franks was easily the leader here, spending $400,019.59 to receive 200,914 votes, or $1.99/vote. Republican Jeff Flake was the second most frugal victor, spending $3.76/vote. By contrast, the victor who spent the *most* per vote was another Republican, John Shadegg. Shadegg spent $17.85/vote ($2,656,692.67 spent, 200914 votes received).

Worst Bargain - AZ Congressional races

Democrat Bob Lord, Shadegg's opponent in CD3, "won" this dubious distinction, spending $1,745,210.41 to receive 115,759 votes, for a $17.85/vote pace. The only losing candidate who spent at a pace that was even close to Lord's was Republican Tim Bee. Bee spent 13.25/vote in his failed campaign to unseat Gabrielle Giffords in CD8.

Giffords and Harry Mitchell (D-CD5) each spent more than $15/vote, but since they won their races (rather handily at that), the money spent was a good deal.

Note: Challengers Don Karg (R-CD4), Rebecca Schneider (D-CD6), and Joe Sweeney (R-CD7 [I think]) haven't filed post-general reports that I could find, but I doubt that any of them spent enough money to challenge Lord for the 'Worst Bargain' status.


The comparison of county campaigns was more difficult, because both major candidates for county attorney, Andrew Thomas and Tim Nelson, as well as supervisor candidates Fulton Brock, Joel Sinclaire, and Max Wilson haven't filed post-general reports yet. (Note: with Joel Sinclaire's passing, his committee has been suspended/terminated. I'm not sure if/when a final campaign finance report will be filed.)

Brock, Thomas, Nelson, and Wilson all have reports up on the County Recorder's website, and according to the time/date stamps on the forms, all reports were submitted on time.

However, I don't want it to be said that I'm not able to form conclusions based on incomplete information. :)))

Best Bargain - Maricopa County races

Right now, Don Stapley is the clear winner in this category, but that could change once his legal expenses are added in. At this point, however, the Republican incumbent spent $9933.45 to receive 164,381 votes, or $0.29/vote to retain his seat in SD2.

Note: Stapley was a little creative in filling out his report, neglecting to fill out the "cycle-to-date" column. The expenditure number listed in this post is a total of the "cycle-to-date" number from his pre-general report and the "current period" number from his post-general report.

Worst Bargain - Maricopa County races

Ed Hermes, the Democratic candidate in Supervisor District 1, "led" this category, spending $112,026.14 to garner 119,971 votes, for a $0.93/vote pace. While for the purposes of this post, this campaign qualifies as the "worst" bargain among the county races, I expect Ed to take the lessons of this cycle and apply them to another campaign, one that he may very well win.

Tim Nelson challenged for this one, spending over $438K in his unsuccessful campaign for County Attorney. However, while he spent nearly 4 times as much as Hermes, his countywide race garnered him more than 4 times the votes, dropping his dollars per vote number to $0.80.

One item of interest from Fulton Brock's post-general report were contributions from a couple in Oro Valley, which is in Pima County. The twosome share a name with some of the people involved in the Stapley indictment. On October 16, 2008, Jason and Kris Wolfswinkel each gave $390 (the maximum allowed individual contribution) to Brock's campaign.

Stapley's failure to report his involvement with some Wolfswinkel family businesses is at the heart of his legal travails.

Wouldn't it be sweet if Brock's name was added to the list of indicted Republicans? Yeah, I know it probably won't happen, but one has to wonder why some Pima County residents care enough about a Maricopa County supervisor's race to fork over the max contribution to his campaign.

Both of these could change once all reports are in, plus the numbers don't include the "independent" expenditures that benefitted Joe Arpaio and Andrew Thomas. However, they both won their races, no matter how unethically, so they don't qualify for "worst bargain" under the guidelines of this post.


I was going to do one of the comparisons for some of the ballot initiatives, but there were a couple of hurdles there - too many of the committees haven't filed reports, and in many cases, there are multiple committees in support/opposition of a given prop.


Comparison purposes -

To put some of these numbers in perspective, in 2004, then-Congressman JD Hayworth spent $7.58/vote to retain his seat. However, that was nearly 180 times the rate of his opponent, Elizabeth Rogers. She spent roughly $0.04 per vote.

Compare this to 2006, when both spent more per vote in their races. Hayworth spent $31.12/vote to lose to Harry Mitchell in CD5; Rogers spent $0.06/vote to win the Kyrene Justice of the Peace race.

OK, that's not really relevant to the rest of the post, but it should give pause to those who would support a speculated-upon Hayworth gubernortorial candidacy. It should also give hope to candidates like Rebecca Schneider and Marilyn Fox, who ran strong campaigns on limited budgets.

There is life after losing an election.

Let's see what happens in two years before considering them and others like them, to be electoral afterthoughts.

Other campaign and campaign finance news -

...According to the Secretary of State's website, the first official candidate committee for 2010 has been formed by Michelle Reagan, Republican State Representative from north Scottsdale. It's an exploratory committee and doesn't list the office that she is "exploring." My guess is State Senate, though Corporation Commission or State Treasurer are possibilities.

...Jim McAllister, an AZCentral.com Plugged In blogger, notes that victorious candidates Jim Lane (Scottsdale Mayor) and Lisa Borowsky (Scottsdale City Council) already have their hands out to developers, seeking contributions to retire their campaign debts.

Apparently, they don't read the news reports about indicted and convicted public officials.

...The AZ Republic has a story that current Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne will be forming a committee to explore a run for State Attorney General in 2010.

Ummm....yeah. Horne has spent most of two terms making the public education system in AZ one of the worst in the country, and now he wants us to set him loose on the legal system?

Later...

FEC Reports are in....

Others have covered this area already, but have tended to focus on their own CDs; the basic raw numbers from all CDs with active committees are included in this post.


Key - candidate - net contributions, individual contributions, PAC contributions, net expenditures, cash on hand. (Net contributions may not match the total of individual and PAC contributions due to refunds, candidate contributions to their own campaigns, or other reasons. Generally, any such variance isn't significant.

CD1 -

Ann Kirkpatrick (D), challenger - $328053.05, $218453.05, $109600.00, $125340.27, $668177.46

Howard Shanker (D), challenger - $33274.60, $33274.60, $0, $46603.04, $20972.36

Mary Kim Titla (D), challenger - $54104.75, $52466.36, $1638.39, $45039.94, $57385.88

Sydney Hay (R), challenger - $95033.73, $76518.73, $18515.00, $59959.65, $257408.09

Preston Korn (R), challenger - $2885.00, $2885.00, $0, $7362.48, $9173.96


CD2 -

John Thrasher (D), challenger - $8295.00, $7895.00, $0, $6599.59, $14207.90

Trent Franks (R), incumbent - $88386.00, $53261.00, $35625.00, $44885.27, $129774.83


CD3 -

Bob Lord (D), challenger - $233202.50, $161794.90, $73507.60, $158933.66, $706523.25

John Shadegg (R), incumbent - $536024.78, $421210.36, $140014.42, $121592.91, $1354246.30

The Shadegg campaign is gloating about their fundraising success during the April - June reporting period, but there's more than a little element of "whistling past the graveyard" in their press releases - Bob Lord is easily the strongest challenger, Dem or Rep, in the state and he's mounting a challenge to Shadegg that is far tougher than any challenge he's faced since entering Congress.

Note: The grand opening of the Lord campaign headquarters is this Saturday, July 19, at 4736 N. 44th St., Phoenix (just south of Camelback) from 11 a.m. - 1 p.m.


CD4 -

Ed Pastor (D), incumbent - $229493.13, $117377.88, $113515.25, $69158.20, $1428843.55


CD5 -

Harry Mitchell (D), incumbent - $335002.66, $224962.13, $113175.00, $85554.75, $1372464.22

David Schweikert (R), challenger - $162749.05, $162749.05, $0, $155851.16, $520990.10

Jim Ogsbury (R), challenger - $49783.24, $46783.24, $3000.00, $79435.55, $323442.10

Laura Knaperek (R), challenger - $34249.00, $37549.00, $0, $23200.05, $105520.79

Mark Anderson (R), challenger - $29278.14, $29278.14, $0, $25618.73, $68791.33

Susan Bitter Smith (R), challenger - $150379.51, $110603.51, $7000.00, $52363.67, $247945.89

The Republican challengers to Harry Mitchell have made some major bets on their abilities to emerge victoriously from the primary and then move on to defeat Mitchell - they've accumulated over $700K in loans and debts - Ogsbury and Schweikert at $250K each, Bitter Smith at more than $156K, and Knaperek has $50K in campaign debt. The only CD5 Rep who lists no campaign loans or obligations is Mark Anderson. In most cases, the loans/debt constitute a significant percentage (half or more) of the candidates' cash on hand totals.

Expect the following headline in mid-November - "Join the LD8 and LD17 Republicans for a joint campaign-debt retirement bake sale and car wash."

OK, OK, probably not... :))

Candie Dates (love that name!) at Sonoran Alliance has a post with some good graphs showing the CD5 challengers' financial positions.


CD6 -

Chris Gramazio (D), challenger - $3137.15, $3075.00, $0, 2539.24, $597.91

Jeff Flake (R), incumbent - $200035.00, $194835.00, $8800.00, $74097.13, $1091474.52


CD7 -

Raul Grijalva (D), incumbent - $125,398.00, $64,398.00, $61,000.00, $89,625.11, $171,043.21.


CD8 -

Gabrielle Giffords (D), incumbent - $562167.97, $381748.16, $181753.35, $156814.05, $2077845.80

Tim Bee (R), challenger - $390406.65, $307856.32, $79950.00, $229078.66, $687703.62


No reports that I could find from challengers Rebecca Schneider (D - CD6), Lee Gentry (R - CD5), Don Karg (R - CD4), or Joe Sweeney and Gene Chewning (Rs - CD7).

Withdrawn candidates - Annie Loyd (I - CD3).

Later!

FEC reports starting to trickle in

There's only two days until the deadline (July 15), but during an election year, most campaigns wait until the last possible minute to reveal how they're doing financially. It's a tactical thing - they're trying to deny any advantage to their opponents.

So far, only a few candidates have submitted their reports. I'll update with a more complete post later this week.

Because the candidate report pickings are slim, I'll include some info from other committees.

From July reports, unless otherwise noted:

Arizona Libertarian Party - Received $35.00, spent $1.62, cash on hand $5067.56

Arizona Republican Party (June report) - Received $98148.51, spent $96082.28, cash on hand $112626.81. Pretty good month there.

Arizona State Democratic Central Executive Committee (June report) - Received $207242.03, spent $109015.08. cash on hand $117746.50. Hmmmm....better than 'pretty good' month there. Much better. :)


Arizona Cotton Growers Association - Received $550.00, spent $2960.53, cash on hand $5246.92. Interesting contributions by the ACGA - $500 each to John Shadegg, Ed Pastor, and Susan Bitter Smith (all running for Congress); $390 to Kevin Gibbons, running for LD18 state senate.

CVS/Caremark Corporation Employees PAC (June report) - Received $19365.00, spent $82000.00, cash on hand $-16983.00. This particular PAC made this list because it has a Scottsdale mailing address. And it spent over $35K in May alone on contributions to races for the Texas legislature. Be interesting to see what they are trying to buy next session.

AgPAC of the Arizona Farm Bureau Federation - Received $10229.26, spent $1007.00, cash on hand $9222.26. Interesting contributions by AgPAC - $500 to John Shadegg, $250 each to Kevin Gibbons (LD18) and Steve Pierce (LD1), Republican candidates for state senate.


Bob Lord, CD3 challenger (Democrat) - No report yet, but his campaign is claiming a very successful quarter. It wouldn't be surprising if the claim is true - John Shadegg has been out shaking every money tree that he can find; there's probably a reason that he's running scared..


Trent Franks, CD2 incumbent (Republican) - Received $57377.44 ($32084.37 from PACs), spent $32800.56, cash on hand $147351.71.

Rick Renzi, CD1 incumbent, not running for reelection (Republican) - Received nada, spent $141.44, cash on hand $3825.02. Campaign committee debt of $456089.91 (candidate loads to his own election committee and legal fees.)

I just like putting up the Renzi numbers. :))


More later this week!

Quarterly FEC Reports Are Pouring In...

They're not all into the FEC yet, so I'll update over the next few days.

The quarterly numbers so far -

CD1 (open seat)

Shanker (D) (challenger) - Total raised $33,688.73; $31,354.75 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $34,320.21 cash on hand. Note: Shanker's committee has $9,367.88 in outstanding debt (credit card statement).

Hay (R) (challenger) - Total raised $98,618.19; $88,118.19 from individuals; $10,500.00 from PACs; $222,334.01 cash on hand. Note: Hay's committee has $70K in outstanding debt (loans by the candidate).

Kirkpatrick (D) (challenger) - Total raised $257,400.17; $194,650.17 from individuals; $62,250.00 from PACs; $465,464.68 cash on hand. Note: Kirkpatrick's committee has $20K in outstanding debt (loan).

Riley (D) (challenger) - Total raised $15,825.00; $15,825.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $216,165.31 cash on hand. Note: Riley's committee has $205K in outstanding debt (candidate loan). Note2: According to PolitickerAZ, Riley has dropped out of the race.

Titla (D) (challenger) - Total raised $39,114.05; $39,114.05 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $48,321.07 cash on hand.

Korn (R) (challenger) - Total raised $14,567.00; $12,266.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $10,494.16 cash on hand. Note: Korn's committee has $3,185.36 in outstanding debt (candidate loan and credit card).

Renzi (R) (outgoing incumbent) - $0 raised; $3966.46 cash on hand; $456,073.37 in outstanding debt (legal fees, candidate loans).

CD1 note: According to Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, rumored Republican candidate Ken Bennett has chosen (again!) to pass on the CD1 race.


CD2

Franks (R) (incumbent) - $88,386.00 total raised; $53,261.00 from individuals; $35,625.00 from PACs; 129,774.83 cash on hand. Note: Franks' committee owes $304,100 in outstanding debt (candidate loan).

Thrasher (D) (challenger) - Total raised $3,023.50; $3,023.50 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $12,512.49 cash on hand.


CD3

Lord (D) (challenger) - Total raised $220,166.47; $163,116.47 from individuals; $51,550.00 from PACs; $632,485.41 cash on hand.

Shadegg (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $150,716.41; $163,516.41 from individuals; $47,000.00 from PACs; $937,672.59 cash on hand. Note: The reason that the total raised is less than the combined totals of individual and PAC contributions is that Shadegg's committee refunded nearly $60K in contributions.

Annie Loyd (I) (challenger) - Quarterly report not posted yet.

Shadegg's flirtation with retirement may have cost him some contributions - Shadegg outraised the incumbent, even when ignoring the refunds (which included a refund of $10K in illegal contributions from his own PAC.)

From a Lord press release -

“We could not have come this far or raised this much without the support of the over 1,000 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who have contributed to my campaign,” Lord said. “I’d like to thank everyone for their continued support. We will change Washington – together.”

CD4

Pastor (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $260,827.71; $164,020.98 from individuals; $96,306.73 from PACs; $1,266,599.90 cash on hand.


CD5

Mitchell (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $321,160.18; $209,028.59 from individuals; $112,110.00 from PACs; $1,121,680.84 cash on hand.

Schweikert (R) (challenger) - Total raised $175,210.23; $171,941.95 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $514,092.21 cash on hand. Note: Schweikert's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).

Ogsbury (R) (challenger) - Total raised 40,421.17; $37,921.17 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $353,094.41 cash on hand. Note: Ogsbury's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).

Hatch-Miller (R) (committee terminated) - Owes $17K; cash on hand $245.20.

Knaperek (R) (challenger) - $49,618.00 total raised; $49,518.00 from individuals; $100 from PACs; $44,471.84 cash on hand.

Anderson (R) (challenger) - $55,115.00 total raised; $55,115.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $69,985.52 cash on hand.

CD5 Notes: Susan Bitter Smith (R) is still 'exploring', but given the facts that the signature deadline is fast approaching (early June) and that her name is dirt with many of Scottsdale's grassroots Republicans (see: Hanover Project, The), my guess is that she isn't going to jump into the race.

Oh yeah - that Schweikert guy has the money race locked up, if not the balloting race. I don't know what the polling numbers among CD5 Republicans looks like, but Schweikert looks like the frontrunner based on contributions from individuals.

Oh yeah2 - Mitchell has more cash on hand that all of his Republican challengers combined. Mitchell still faces a Republican registration advantage in his district, but he is well-positioned to face whichever Rep makes it out of the primary.


CD6

Flake (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $58,342.00; $52,742.00 from individuals; $6,000.00 from PACs; $974,536.74 cash on hand.


CD7

Grijalva (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $91,312.93; $54,296 from individuals; $37,010.00 from PACs; $139,670.64 cash on hand.


CD8

Giffords (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $466,786.20; $333,616.20 from individuals; $138,070.00 from PACs; $1,672,821.88 cash on hand.

Bee (R) (challenger) - Total raised $466,092.60; $406,992.60 from individuals; $40,000 from PACs; $525,439.88 cash on hand.

FEC reports are in

Edit to update: Turns out that Bob Lord's (D-CD3) financial report is up; I just missed it. I've updated the appropriate section of the post. Thanks to Drew for the comment...

End edit.

It's that time again - time for a quick summary of fundraising results for the various Congressional campaigns in AZ.


Key - Total raised, $ from individual donors, $ from PACs and committees, Cash on hand, and (where applicable) debts or loans.

I'll comment between CDs.

CD1

Kirkpatrick (D) $186108.71, 166108.71, 24000, 292867.66, 20000 loan

Renzi (R) $0, 0, 0, 1786.60, 456058.23 debt

Hay (R) $41822.32, 23935.92, 17886.40, 155727.77, 20000 loan

Shanker (D) $17517.18, 17517.18, 0, 4069.89

No info as yet from Mary Kim Titla (D) or a Democratic candidate that I've never heard of but who has filed organization paperwork, Jeffrey Brown. He's serious enough to have a real, though under construction, website, so I'll mention him here.

It's early still, but pending the still only rumored entries of other Republicans into the contest, right now the race is shaping up to be between industry lobbyist Hay for the Rs and DCCC-annointed Kirkpatrick for the Ds. Their early money and organizations will be tough to beat.


CD2

Franks (R) $72691, 42191, 30500, 86274.1

Thrasher (D) $8543, 8543, 0, 10693.56

Nothing too surprising here; while Franks is beatable, Thrasher needs support to do it. Surf to his website to volunteer or contribute.


CD3

Shadegg (R) $494544.92, 362794.92, 131750, 863636.22

Loyd (I) $14226.55, 0, 14226.55. 8884.33

Lord (D) $211071.23, 187821.23, 18250.00, 503182.54

Something tells me that Shadegg didn't raise half-a-million dollars in what is traditionally the slowest fundraising quarter of the year in response to Annie Loyd's $14K. While Shadegg has, and is expected to maintain, a fundraising advantage (incumbents usually do), he's in the race of his political life. Perhaps his efforts on behalf of John McCain's presidential campaign have an ulterior motive - he realizes that he benefits with McCain at the top of the ballot in November. McCain's presence, while it may not help Rep candidates nationwide, should fuel increased Rep voter turnout here in AZ.

Shadegg should keep something in mind as the campaign unfolds - by sacrificing his constituents and constituent services to campaign for McCain, he could cost himself more votes than he gains with McCain at the top of the ballot.


CD4

Pastor (D) $80125.63, 38120, 42005.63. 1222975.39

$1.2 million CoH and no opponent (as yet, anyway)? Pastor should expect lots of pressure to help out other Democratic candidates this summer.


CD5

Hayworth (R) $-2200, 0, 0, 15310.3

Mitchell (D) $210680, 137255, 71800, 868883.55

Ogsbury (R) $34880, 33380, 1500, 349191.47

Schweikert (R) $505,993, 246393.51, 9600, 412030.69, 250000 loan

Hatch-Miller (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.

Anderson (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.

Knaperek (R) $19948.54, 19948.54, 0, 27356.99

Even without the quarter million dollar loan, Schweikert is the one to beat (money-wise, anyway) in the Rep primary here, though Knaperek and Anderson are veteran campaigners and will know how to use their more limited funds to good effect.

Note: Telecom/cable industry lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith has said that she will make her run/don't run decision sometime after Super Tuesday. As of tonight, no paperwork for her, organizational or financial reporting, has been posted by the FEC.


CD6

Flake $305414.48, 258613.52, 46800.96, 999110.50

Richard Grayson is running a (self-admittedly) quixotic challenge to Flake, but that million dollars CoH of Flake's isn't aimed at him, it was aimed straight as erstwhile primary challenger Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance).

Pearce has recently set his sights somewhat lower - convincing LD18 State Senator Karen Johnson (R-UFO) to step aside and not run for reelection.

Pearce will face Democrat Judah Nativio for the seat.


CD7

Grijalva (D) $40475, 7975, 32500, 99351.11

The Reps are sure to run someone against Congressman Grijalva (they always do), but unless I miss my guess, Grijalva's organization will expend more effort on rounding up votes for presidential candidate Barack Obama than they'll have to expend on rounding up votes for Raul.


CD8

Bee (R) $151074.24, 141324.24, 9750, 161246.04

Giffords (D) $272253.88, 161209.45, 111044.43, 1317357.30

Unless Tim Bee can pull of a miracle dealing with the state's budget deficit, he may come to regret not resigning his seat in the Arizona State Senate. Giffords has an almost 9-to-1 CoH advantage, and Bee is stuck in Phoenix most of the week.

If he leaves the Senate now, he'll get roundly criticized for abandoning his constituents (something that a candidate for another office doesn't want to deal with); if he doesn't leave, his campaign can't get up to full speed until June or July, by which time, Giffords could have a 20:1 money advantage.

PolitickerAZ has a report on the numbers as well, and they have most of the duelling press releases that accompany the releases of fundraising numbers on the main site.

Later!

Quarterly FEC reports - updated

Updated on 10/16 with every incumbent now reporting; many of those who are just 'exploring' haven't filed yet. Many of those, because of the timing of their organization, won't *have* to report until after the first of the year.


Key: Candidate name, affiliation ( * signifies incumbents) - total contributions, PAC and other committee $, individual contributions, cash on hand

CD1

Rick Renzi, Republican* - $1,200; $1,000; $200; $2,085.59
Note: Renzi still owes over $100K in legal fees from earlier in the year.

Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat - $217,050.00; $1,000; $216,050.00; $173,227.81

Sydney Hay, Republican - $57,933.81; $0; $57,933.81; $106,267.60
Note: $50,000 of Ms. Hay's fundraising came in the form of a loan to the campaign by the candidate.

Howard Shanker, Democrat - $18,160.24; $0; $18,160.24; $9,367.88
Note: $2,586.34 of his total came from the candidate and the campaign owes $9,300 on a credit card.

Ellen Simon, Democrat - $1,550.00; $0; $1,550.00; $4.41
Note: All $1,550 of Ms. Simon's funds came from the candidate herself.

CD1 note: To borrow a phrase from the film "Bull Durham" - Ms. Kirkpatrick has "announced [her] presence with authority." Her strong quarter sends a loud message both to potential Democratic primary opponents and potential Republican opposition in the general. Her candidacy is for real, and anyone thinking of jumping into the race (either side of the aisle) better be prepared for the long haul.


CD2

Trent Franks, Republican* - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87

John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87

CD3

Bob Lord, Democrat - $142,133.52; $5,000.00; $137,133.52; $332,189.52

John Shadegg, Republican* - $192,653.00; $36,400.00; $156,253.00; $450,930.26

Annie Loyd, Independent - $12,139.24; 0; $12,139.24; $5,001.16

Bob Stump, Republican - $0; $0; $0; $13,484.68

CD3 notes: You know that Independent Loyd has an uphill fight when the numbers show that her active campaign has less cash on hand than the inactive (for many years) campaign of Republican Stump. Also, the Lord campaign seems to have legs; while the incumbent Shadegg has outraised him and leads in COH, the differences are fairly insignificant, especially when the majority of the fundraising difference is rooted in Shadegg's advantage in PAC money.

This one is going to be a real race and one to keep an eye on.

Note on the note - Mr. Lord will be speaking at the next meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Jewish Democratic on next Thursday. More on that in my "events calendar" post later this week.

CD4

Ed Pastor, Democrat* - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71

CD5

Harry Mitchell, Democrat* - $354,638.52; $140,470.52; $214,168.00

Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25

JD Hayworth, Republican - $0; $0; $0, $20,279.70

Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0

CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.

CD6

Jeff Flake, Republican - $225,765.78; $22,500.00; $203,265.78; $749,738.38

CD7

Raul Grijalva, Democrat* - $63,122.02; $0; $63,122.02; $94,425.00

CD8

Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80

Tim Bee, Republican - $134,620.00; $0; $134,620.00; $119,316.25

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat* - $257,800.05; $96,548.41; $161,251.64; $1,126,838.82
Note: Giffords' info has been corrected by an update; a previous "October" report that was filed in September is NOT the October quarterly report. Oops - I should've caught that in my original post. :(

CD8 note: With a cash on hand total that is slightly more than 10% of Gabrielle Giffords', the fundraising effort of sitting State Senate President Bee can only be termed as "disappointing" for the Republicans.

Of course, I'm a Democrat. :)))))


Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.

The FEC numbers count more. :))

A Sonoran Alliance post on the significance of the numbers in CD5 and CD8 here.

A Sustainablity, Equity, Development post on CD8 is here.

Later!

Quarterly FEC filings are rolling in...

from the various Congressional campaigns. The list isn't complete (the due date is the 15th) but here's a partial summary of reports from active committees (not necessarily active candidates) -

Key: Candidate name, affiliation - total contributions, PAC $, individual contributions, cash on hand

CD1

CD2

Trent Franks, Republican - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87

CD3

Annie Loyd, Independent - $12139.24; 0; $12139.24; $5001.16

CD4

Ed Pastor, Democrat - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71


CD5

Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0

CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.

CD6

CD7

CD8

Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat - $663,297.91; $228,891.49; $434,406.42; $407,041.71

Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.

The FEC numbers count more. :))

Yes, it's a little early for this post, but I work weekends and won't have the time to do a more complete post until early next week.

Yet another challenger for Harry Mitchell

The long-rumored entry of Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert into the Republican primary race to face Harry Mitchell next year is a little closer to reality.

From the AZ Rep's Plugged In -

Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert has launched an exploratory committee as he considers a run for the 5th Congressional District in 2008.

Sort of.

You see, his Website - David08exploratory.com - is up and running. But it's clearly a work in progress.

Note: I clicked on the link to the website, but it is unavailable as of this writing.

Brief background:

Elected as Maricopa County Treasurer in 2004 in a race that had at least a bit of controversy and allegations of racism/ethnic insults in his primary contest against Republican businessman Garry Ong.

From the linked article (from Asianweek.com) -

Political mud started to fly when a mailer sent out for a Schweikert barbecue-fundraiser read “No Tofu Dogs” invited. Ong’s team filed a complaint with the Anti-Defamation League.

At a public meeting, Schweikert told Ong, “It was just for the fun of it,” but he offered no apology.

...He ran for Congress in 1994, losing in the Republican primary to J.D. Hayworth.

...A search of the FEC's databases didn't turn up an current campaign filings, but those aren't necessary until he actually starts a campaign or exploratory committee.

...Further FEC searching found contributions to the AZ Republican Party and to Susan Bitter-Smith's 2000 campaign.

...A search of the AZ Secretary of State's databases show contributions to AZ Right To Life PAC, LD7 Republicans, Sen. Karen Johnson (R-LD18), and 2006 candidate Carl Seel (LD6).

...He's been making the rounds in the non-District 8 LDs, schmoozing up Republican activists in LD21 (scheduled for last night) and LD18 (next week.) Note: He currently lives in Fountain Hills, which is in LD8 and CD5.

...Republican blogger Espresso Pundit, Greg Patterson (Schweikert's former colleague in the AZ lege) has a profile here.

From the profile by Republican blogger Sonoran Alliance -

David, former State Legislator and current County Treasurer, has been running for this seat, in one way or another, since the day he lost to J.D. Hayworth in the primary in 1994. He is smart, ambitious and one of the hardest working people in politics. And his new bride is said to be just as motivated as he is, which is a huge deal in a Congressional race. He likely knows more detail about the district than anyone else, which demonstrates, to some degree, one of his weaknesses – he is a bit geeky, but in a charming way. He is a solid conservative (he actually ran to the right of Hayworth in 1994). Little known factoid: Sen. Karen Johnson was his assistant when he served as the Majority Whip in the state legislature.

General issues: Dems (and the New Times) attack Schweikert for his role in the LD 20 recount and for not releasing the ballots to the Senate. Dems have an universal heart attack when they realize they are taking the same position as Sen. Jack Harper.

Well, that *does* explain the campaign contribution to Johnson.

Yes, I know I keep citing profiles by Republican bloggers, but let's face facts - it's not like we, meaning Democratic bloggers, write many profiles of Republican candidates. :)

Anyway, he seems to be intelligent, hard-working, very conservative, and not afraid to push the limits of decorum during a campaign (the personal insults). While he has low name recognition with average voters (and even some more active ones), he also has low negatives, unlike some of his opponents in the primary.

As of right now, he is probably the strongest candidate in the primary - he's got the connections to raise money, the experience to run an effective campaign, and is conservative enough to appeal to the far-right wing of his party while not scaring off the "Chamber of Commerce" wing with a "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" campaign platform.

Of course, we're nearly a year away from the primary, and there's at least a couple of other folks who are rumored to be interested in the Republican nomination to take on Harry.

Stay tuned...

Summer break is over...

and Republicans are back to acting like, well, "Republicans."

Not that they ever stopped. :)

...Sen. Larry Craig (R- Needs a clue) is now "reconsidering" his decision to resign from the U.S. Senate over his arrest in a sex sting. From AP via Yahoo! News -

BOISE, Idaho - Sen. Larry Craig is reconsidering his decision to resign after his arrest in a Minnesota airport sex sting and may still fight for his Senate seat, his spokesman said Tuesday evening.

The highlight of the article was this passage, though (emphasis mine) -

Billy Martin, one of Craig's lawyers, said the senator's arrest in an undercover police operation in the Minneapolis airport "raises very serious constitutional questions."

Martin, who represents Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick in his dogfighting case, said Craig "has the right to pursue any and all legal remedies available as he begins the process of trying to clear his good name."

I'm sure Mr. Martin is well-compensated for his efforts, but isn't there a nice clean armed robbery or corporate fraud case to defend? Maybe a slumlord or mineowner? Any of those defendants would be a step up for him professionally.

Anyway, the good Senator shouldn't resign because

A. the crime he pled to (and is considering 'un-pleading' to) is a misdemeanor that didn't involve violence, a minor, or misuse of his office. It's more than a little creepy, but that's all; and

B. if he resigns, the Democratic nominee for his seat next year won't get to beat on him or the eventual Republican nominee during the campaign with the "hypocrite" plank (metaphorically speaking.)


...The White House is gearing up for more of the same in Iraq.

First came this, courtesy GovExec.com -

Independent study finds Iraq has failed to meet most goals

A Government Accountability Office report released Tuesday concludes that Iraq's government has failed to meet most legislative, economic and security benchmarks established by Congress.

The much-anticipated report kicks off what is expected to be a month dominated by debate over Iraq policy, as Democrats in both chambers continue efforts to end the increasingly unpopular war. The report says the Iraqi government has met three of 18 benchmarks, partially met four and failed to achieve 11.

The Bush administration response, courtesy AP via Yahoo! News -

WASHINGTON - President Bush's senior advisers on Iraq have recommended he stand by his current war strategy, and he is unlikely to order more than a symbolic cut in troops before the end of the year, administration officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

{snip}

Bush himself suggested that modest troop cuts may be possible if military successes continue, but he gave no timeline or specific numbers. Options beyond a symbolic cut this year include cutting the tour of duty for troops in Iraq from 15 months back to the traditional 12 months, one official said. If adopted, that change would not come before the spring.

What a swell guy!! Back to 12-month tours of duty!! Maybe!! Whooo hooo!


...The Republicans behind the 2004 'Swift Boat' smear campaign against Sen. John Kerry are hard at work, trying to rig the 2008 elections.

From AP, via Yahoo! News -

LOS ANGELES - Lawyers behind a California ballot proposal that could benefit the 2008 Republican presidential nominee have ties to a Texas homebuilder who financed attacks on Democrat John Kerry's Vietnam War record in the 2004 presidential campaign.

Charles H. Bell and Thomas Hiltachk's law firm banked nearly $65,000 in fees from a California-based political committee funded almost solely by Bob J. Perry that targeted Democrats in 2006. Perry, a major Republican donor, contributed nearly $4.5 million to the group Swift Boat Veterans for Truth that made unsubstantiated but damaging attacks on Kerry three years ago.

Perry is funding a campaign to change the way California's 55 electoral votes are allocated, from the 'winner-take-all' statewide format currently used to a system that awards them Congressional district by Congressional district.

In 2004, the state went overwhelmingly Democratic statewide, but 22 of the Congressional districts individually went Republican.

The group is called Californians for Equal Representation, which *sounds* non-partisan, right? However, the primary source of funding for the group, Bob J. Perry of Houston, Texas, has given tens of millions of dollars to Republican candidates and causes over the years.

Including $4,350,000 to fund the Swift Boat Liars PAC. (Courtesy FEC)

Stay tuned on this one.


...And when all is bleak - Bush's war is still going badly, prominent Republicans are found not using bathroom stalls for the purposes for which they were created, Republican after Republican is facing ethics questions, and a tanking housing market seems to be taking the overall economy with it - you can count on a House Republican to immediately try to bring Congress' focus to that which truly ails America - illegal immigration.

Rep. Martha Blackburn (R-TN7), in perhaps the 2nd or 3rd floor speech given after the House gavelled back into session on Tuesday, started right in on how illegal immigration is one of the greatest threats facing our nation right now.

Edit to add:

The transcript of her speech can be found in the Congressional Record here.

End edit.

Nice to have clear priorities; too bad their priorities have nothing to do with solving real problems and everything to do with appeasing the most extreme part of their base.


There was some good news, though.

...Laura Richardson (D-CA) was sworn in to fill the open seat left by the late Congresswoman Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-CA).

Congrats to Congresswoman Richardson on her election!

...Niki Tsongas, widow of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas, won the Democratic primary to fill the vacant seat in Massachusetts' 5th district. The seat opened up when Rep. Martin Meehan resigned to accept the Chancellor's post and UMass-Lowell.

Congrats to Mrs. Tsongas, too!

I'd mention the winner of the Republican primary, but the only way for a Republican to win in that district is to have Katherine Harris count the ballots. :)

Later!

First announced challenger for Harry Mitchell

From The Phoenix Business Journal -

Former business lobbyist and congressional committee staffer Jim Ogsbury has announced he will challenge U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz., in next year's elections.

Ogsbury, 48, previously worked for Triadvocates LLC, a Phoenix-based lobbying firm. He also served as federal government relations manager with the Salt River Project utility and was staff director for the U.S. House Appropriations Committee Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development.

...On the federal level, Ogsbury has contributed to the campaigns of the likes of JD Hayworth, Jon Kyl, Rick Renzi, John McCain, and Katherine Harris (of Florida recount fame). He has also contributed to the campaigns of Gabrielle Giffords and Ed Pastor. (Info courtesy the FEC)

...On the state level, he has contributed to Jay Tibshraeny and Jim Waring. (Courtesy AZ Secretary of State)

...The conservative blog Sonoran Alliance had this to say in an April evaluation of potential Republican challengers -

Jim is well-known and well-liked with insiders. While his career has mostly been in Washington, D.C., he is a native Arizonan and hails from CD 5 where he attended high school and ASU....He will likely be able to raise pretty good money and is rumored to have some of his own that he could put in if need be. However, he also has no name ID.

This one is no surprise as his entry has been a strong rumor for months. He can get a head start as many of the other rumored challengers are in one or another elected office and would fall under AZ's "resign to run" law. They'll put off 'officially' announcing as long as possible

Later!

Renzi Keeping His Options Open

While he and his falling Congressional career look like burnt toast and smell like burnt toast, apparently he believes he has a chance of landing butter-side up, so he's keeping his campaign paperwork in order.

Earlier this month (2 Aug 2007), he filed with the FEC Forms F1A (Statement of Organization) and F2A (Statement of Candidacy) for the 2008 campaign.

This is hardly evidence that he has decided to run again, but it definitely leaves open the possibility.

And, depending on how things play out, he's so untouchably radioactive that may actually be the best thing for the eventual Democratic nominee.

Later!

Quarterly numbers, anyone?

The FEC has posted candidates' quarterly financial reports online.

Summary of interesting stuff for Arizona's Congressfolk and would-be Congressfolk -

Ed Pastor of CD4 has the most cash on hand, at $1,185,109.24 but in a bit of a surprise, freshman Gabrielle Giffords of CD8 is second with a whopping $941,489.64.

Whoever the Reps throw against her next year will have a steep uphill fight.

In terms of fundraising, the two freshman Democrats in Congress, Giffords and Harry Mitchell of CD5, led the way raising $580,637.32 and $354,638.52 respectively.

Coming in 3rd, however, playing catch-up to (and surpassing) the surprising fundraising totals of challenger Bob Lord from last quarter's reports, Republican John Shadegg of CD3 raised $311,532. He now has a lead in cash on hand over Lord by approximately $50K.

Leading the state's Congressional delegation in the 'seriously scuffling' category is Republican Rick Renzi of CD1.

He's down to $20,418.16 cash on hand after raising just over $40k during the quarter.

The best part of the numbers? He paid out $25,000 in legal fees, and owes over $100K more.

And speaking of a (former) Congressman with legal issues, here are JD Hayworth's numbers:

Cash on hand: $23,134.64 (that's good news)

Raised: $0 (that's better news)

Spent: $107,879.42, with nearly $100K of that in legal fees. (that's *great* news :) )

Later!