Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.

Paul Penzone not seeking a 3rd term and will resign in January

Let the political games of musical chairs and idle speculation begin.

From AZFamily -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

Penzone also announced he would be stepping down before his current term is up, "I think it’s appropriate for me to depart of the office in January and clear the way so during the last year of my term going into elections, there aren’t distractions. It gives me a chance to pursue some opportunities to serve the public in several ways and to do some things that present themselves as incredible options and opportunities."

I'm not much into musical chairs, but I can do idle speculation with the best of them.

Caveat: No actual humans were talked for this.

I have no idea who the Democratic nominee will be; the R nominee will (probably) be someone who should be in prison used to work for Joe Arpaio.

As for Penzone's next gig, if it's not elected, I could only guess - maybe he's going to be the commissioner of the World Pickleball Tour.

OK, that's probably not going to happen. :)

Some speculation is that he plans to run for an elected office, so I'll talk about that.

US Senate - could happen, but probably not, and for two reasons.  1. Ruben Gallego has been in the race for a while.  2. Kyrsten Sinema is still lurking; a Sinema candidacy is expected to give the race to the R nominee.

US House of Representatives - could happen, but that will depend on other chips falling in a way that's favorable to him.  

If he entered the race against R David Schweikert, he'd almost certainly cause at least two of the announced candidates in the crowded Democratic primary there to withdraw.  I don't think it will happen, but given his documented history of taking on entrenched office holders with ethics issues, this one isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If he entered the race to replace Gallego in Congress, he would lose in the primary there - the candidates there have been active since before the moment that Gallego announced his intent to run for Senate.

If he entered the race for the seat held by Greg Stanton, well, I suppose it *could* happen, but I expect that he wouldn't enter that race unless Stanton announces that he won't seek another term.

Arizona Corporation Commission - the only state-level seats on the 2024 ballot.  Seems too low profile for him.

City Council, School Board, Justice of the Peace, and Constable slots - Not only do I not know where he lives (eligibility for those is residency-specific), I think those are too low profile.

State Legislature - he's highly respected; why would he want to lose that?  In other words, not gonna happen...though if he were to join the lege, he could serve as a counterbalance to John Kavanagh.

What I think will happen is that he will accept a position with the Biden Administration.

If that happens, there will be a certain synchronicity to that - Penzone's predecessor was pardoned by Biden's predecessor.

Basically, one skell pardoned another.

If Biden hires Penzone, it will be a situation where one decent human being hires another.

Time for some 2024 speculation

Yes, the 2022 election is barely in the books and the inevitable lawsuit has been filed but not resolved, but 2024 races have already started.

First, a few caveats:

1. No actual humans were spoken to during the production of this post.  This is purely about me throwing ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks.

2. Any names/people mentioned here are folks who I think may look at running for a particular office but that doesn't mean that I think that all will actually run for that office.

3. Anyone who currently holds an office will be presumed to retain that office, if they actually run for it.  Some will be vulnerable and will lose their offices.

US President:

The 2020 nominees, Joe Biden and Cheeto, are making noises about running (actually, Cheeto has already announced his candidacy).  However, I don't believe that either will actually run in 2024.  They'll both be *old*.  Right now, both are making noises about doing so because of Biden's desire to not to already be seen as a lame duck POTUS and Cheeto's desire to not be seen as incarcerated.

And his ego.  Cheeto's vanity is boundless.  For him, the presidency is less about public service and more about self-aggrandizement. And profit.

US Senate seat from Arizona:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat is up for election, and her decision to change her registration to Independent opens up the Democratic primary in a big way,

The Republican primary was already going to be wide open but her move may make it wilder.

Doug Ducey, the current governor in AZ, has long been rumored to be eyeing Sinema's seat.

Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General in AZ, may have lost the R Senate primary in 2022 and is term-limited as AG, but he doesn't seem to be going away - he's running radio ads catering to rural voters.  He may simply be burning off his budget, but I think that he's keeping his options open.

Paul Gosar and/or Andy Biggs, both are batshit crazy members of Congress.  Assuming they avoid going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

Kelli Ward, currently the batshit crazy chair of the AZGOP.  Assuming she avoids going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

An unnamed vassal of a rich guy who's looking to by a Senate seat.  Think: 2024 version of Blake Masters/Peter Thiel.

Other election-denying/anti-democracy Rs may also looking at the seat.

With Sinema's change, the R primary transitions from being the political equivalent of a pro wrestling battle royal to being an outright bar brawl.

If Sinema appears on the ballot, it will have the effect of siphoning votes away from the Democratic nominee, so if the R nominee isn't a batshit crazy ones, they'll win in a walkover; if the R voters pick a crazy nominee in their primary, the race will closer, maybe close enough for the D nominee to win.  For the record, while I consider Ducey and Brnovich to be poor public servants and simply lousy human beings, they're not batshit crazy.

The Democratic primary will be less wide open than the Republican primary but it will be more open than it would have been before Sinema left.

Ruben Gallego, current member of Congress, is the very early favorite here because he was already going to challenge Sinema in the primary when she was still a D.

Greg Stanton, current member of Congress and former mayor of Phoenix, has already made noises critical of Sinema.  From Twitter (pic taken yesterday) -

Other Ds who may be looking at the race -

Kate Gallego, current mayor of Phoenix.  Termed out and will not be in office in 2024.

Regina Romero, current mayor of Tucson.

Raquel Teran, currently in the AZ State Senate and the chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.  In AZ, it's almost a tradition that one doesn't become a state party chair without running for high office.

Kathy Hoffman. currently the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction.  She lost her re-election bid in 2022.

US Congress -

I expect that most of the current officeholders here will retain their office, but three of the Rs will be especially vulnerable - Juan Ciscomani in southern AZ and Eli Crane in Northern AZ because they will be first termers and David Schweikert because he's ethically challenged.

Also, if Ruben Gallego and/or Stanton run for the Senate, it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 (or more) of the others listed as potentially running for Senate to look at those seats instead.

Arizona Corporation Commission -

Three seats will be on the ballot.  They're currently held by D Anna Tovar and Rs Lea Marquez Peterson and Jim O'Connor.  While I expect that all of them will run for reelection I cannot and will not guess at what the primary fields will look like here.

Congressmen Gallego and Stanton remember 1/6

 From KOLD -

‘My training kicked in’ – Arizona lawmakers reflect on the chaos of Jan. 6

Thursday marks one year since the attack on the U.S Capitol. As hundreds stormed the Capitol in hopes of overturning lawful election results, lawmakers inside the building were sent scrambling for safety.

It is a day now emblazoned in the minds of many Americans. Some Arizona lawmakers say that day one year ago brings back memories of chaos.

“My training kicked in,” said Marine-turned Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).

[snip]

Gallego’s colleague Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) was getting ready to speak in defense of Arizona’s election results that day when insurrectionists delayed proceedings. Stanton said it has been difficult to work with some of his colleagues who cast doubt on his state’s results.

“Relationships among members of Congress have been a little frayed, which means for a member like me you have to work even harder to build those relationships,” said Stanton.

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) was objecting to his state’s election results on the House floor when evacuations began. We reached out to Gosar for an interview but his office rejected our request and did not send a statement.

[snip]

Yes, I have voted for both Gallego and Stanton (don't freak out Rs, there was no fraud here - I moved in 2018).

And I don't regret voting for either one.

In a shot across Ducey's bow, the Biden administration looks to protect students, staff, and teachers

From Politico -

States can’t block federal funds for districts that mandate masks, Education secretary says

Public schools who want to institute mask mandate rules can't be denied federal funds, even if their state governments try to pressure them out of mask mandates, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said.

The Florida state government threatened to withhold funds for schools in Broward and Alachua counties if they imposed mandatory mask rules. But the Biden administration has proposed using federal funds to make up the difference, with Cardona specifying Sunday that the schools "do not have to get the green light for [their] governor to use these funds."

While the Politico article cited only the Florida example, Cardona's statement may have been directed at Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona.

From Jim Small of the AZ Mirror - 

Ducey: Schools won’t get COVID aid money if they require masks

A day after a judge ruled that a new state law barring Arizona public and charter schools from requiring mask use can’t be enforced until late September, Gov. Doug Ducey on Tuesday said school districts considering enacting temporary mask mandates won’t receive some federal COVID-19 relief money unless they call off those plans.

And those who have already enacted mask mandates seemingly won’t be able to claim pandemic aid payments they were expecting.

Ducey's press release about his apparently forbidden act is here.

From Twitter, Congressman Greg Stanton's response -

It's almost as if Ducey plans to ascend to the Republican nomination for president on dead bodies and criminality.

Who does he think he is, Trump?

2016 may not be over quite yet, but positioning for 2018 has already started...

From the Arizona Republic, written by Laurie Roberts - 

What is it with these politicians and their ambitions?

Last week, it was Kelli Ward announcing that she’s running once again for the U.S. Senate in 2018 – this time trying to knock off Sen. Jeff Flake.

Now comes Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton, filing campaign papers to challenge Secretary of State Michele Reagan in 2018.

Stanton’s decision makes sense – even though it would be nice to get through 2016 before the angling begins for 2018.

Stanton, in a press release, says he's not really running for secretary of state. He just needed to create a state campaign committee in order to transfer remaining funds from his city campaign committee before Nov. 4, when a new state law will bar him from doing so.

As mentioned in the article, Stanton may not run for secretary of state - the governor's spot is also up for election in 2018.

Right now, Doug Ducey, the incumbent governor looks likely to run for and win reelection.  However, a lot can happen between now and the beginning of 2018.

Stanton (pic courtesy Phoenix.gov)

Not least of which is the election next week, which will impact who seeks what office in 2018.

Karlene Keogh Parks endorsed by Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton

Karlene Keogh Parks, candidate for Phoenix City Council, District 6, has earned what is perhaps the biggest prize of the campaign season in Phoenix.

From the Arizona Republic, written by Dustin Gardiner -

Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton endorses Karlene Keogh Parks in District 6 council race

 Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton made his first public foray into the upcoming City Council elections on Thursday, endorsing insurance executive and District 6 candidate Karlene Keogh Parks.

Keogh Parks is locked in a contentious race with Councilman Sal DiCiccio, who’s running for re-election. The district encompasses Ahwatukee and affluent communities in east Phoenix, including Biltmore and parts of Arcadia and north central.

This doesn't quite offset the deep pockets of DiCiccio's lobbyist supporters, but the endorsement of the most popular elected official in the Phoenix area (yes, respect for Stanton extends far beyond the Phoenix city limits) helps muster grass roots support in a way that can't be bought.

Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe, "pondering" a 2014 run for governor

From the Phoenix Business Journal, written by Mike Sunnucks -

Former Tempe mayor Hugh Hallman is looking at running for Arizona governor in 2014.

 

The Republican said on his website today he is pondering a run.

 

“Over the next few months, I will be traveling the state of Arizona to speak with and listen to people from all walks of life about what’s really important to them in their state government, and how we can address our priorities successfully,” Hallman said. “At that time, I will make a final decision about pursuing elected office. I have one particular elected office very clearly in mind — the office of governor of Arizona.”

If he runs and gains the R nomination next year, he could suffer the embarrassment of losing Tempe, his hometown, in the general election.  As mayor of Tempe, he kept a lid on the anti-constituent craziness that permeates internal Republican politics these days, but to get through the Republican primary, he'll need to cut loose with the nihilist rhetoric of the Rs' social and fiscal agendas.

That will cost him votes in Tempe. 

Lots of votes.

Sunnucks' piece went on to list a few other rumored candidates -

On the Democratic side:  Dr. Richard Carmona, former US Surgeon General and 2012 Democratic nominee for US Senate; Fred Duval, businessman, author, and former President of the Arizona Board of Regents; and Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix.

On the Republican side:  State Treasurer Doug Ducey and AZ Secretary of State Ken Bennett.


Possible additions/subtractions to that list:

Greg Stanton has stated that he is not running for governor in 2014 (that doesn't mean he won't change his mind at some point, but 2014 really might be too early for him to go for the governor's job.)

State Representative Chad Campbell, the Democratic leader in the AZ House, is also eyeing a run.  Like the others mentioned here, he may end up not running for governor (right now, they're all "pondering"), but he is probably more likely to run than Carmona is, at this point.

Felecia Rotellini, the impressive Democratic nominee for AZ Attorney General in 2010, is being talked up as a potential candidate.  I think that she is more likely to mount another run at AG, but it's still early - anything could happen.

Scott Smith, the Republican mayor of Mesa.  Has had success during his administration (Mesa is no longer the political, social, economic, intellectual, and cultural laughingstock of Arizona) and is young enough (mid to late 50s) that he could wait until 2018.  On the other hand, the wheels could fall off in Mesa at any time (or, more likely, the Arizona legislature could slash Mesa's tires at any time), so he may be best served by running in 2014.

Steve Pierce, former president of the AZ state senate (he won reelection to the Senate, but lost the R caucus vote for a return to the senate presidency) and rancher in Yavapai County, is rumored to be eyeing the race, but a candidate who isn't from Maricopa or Pima counties has an uphill path.  Add in the fact that while former legislators *have* made it to the 9th Floor (Jan Brewer, Jane Hull), they didn't get there directly, going through other offices first, and he may be least likely to run of anyone mentioned in this post.

Gary Pierce (no relation to Steve), member and former chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, is also rumored to be interested in the governor's office.  Those rumors received a boost when fellow R Bob Stump was elected as chair of the ACC, presumably to allow Gary Pierce the time to explore a run.


In other 2014 news, maybe we should rename the office of the Arizona Attorney General as the office of Arizona Eternal Optimist:

Tom Horne has formed a reelection committee.

Good God, this is going to be fun.  :)