Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.

Fasten your seatbelts: 2023 was an interesting year but just a prelude to the bumpy ride that will be 2024

I know that it's early and later writers will do summaries that are both longer and less Maricopa County-centric.

Having said that, there are a number of developments in the political world here in AZ in 2023 that will have effects in 2024.

1. It started in 2022 (actually, it may have started before that when it became obvious that she was a lousy US Senator, but it become official in 2022), but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's  change from the Democratic Party to Unaffiliated has set up a 2024 election race that involves Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (I'm not predicting that she will win her primary, but as of now, I'm presuming that she will be the nominee) and, perhaps, Sinema herself (if she mounts a third party run).

From CNBC, dated 12/9/2022 -

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party to become

 

independent

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has switched parties to become an independent, complicating the Democrats’ narrow control of the U.S. Senate.

Sinema said in a tweet Friday that she was declaring her “independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent.”

It's a statewide race, but since Maricopa County has ~60% of the state's population and registered voters, the race is considered to be Maricopa-centric.

2. The decision by Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to not seek re-election in 2024.  Her decision has set off a massive primary battle for north/northwestern Maricopa County district.  Not every R running for the seat actually lives in the district, but that's not required per the US Constitution and since this is a safe R seat, no R candidate will pass this one by.

I'm actually a little surprised that former Phoenix city council member Sal DiCiccio and perennial candidate Rodney Glassman haven't jumped into the race.

On the other hand, it's early yet. :)

From AP, dated 10/17/2023 -

US Rep. Debbie Lesko won’t seek re-election in Arizona next year

U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko announced Tuesday that she will not run for office next year.

The Arizona Republican has decided to spend more time with family.

In a statement, Lesko, 64, said traveling every month to Washington, D.C. has been difficult and that “D.C. is broken.”

None of the Rs running to replace will "unbreak" D.C.

3. The announcement by Democrat Paul Penzone that not only will he not seek re-election as Maricopa County Sheriff in 2024, he'll resign from the job in January.

From Arizona's Family, written by their digital news staff and Micaela Marshall, dated 10/2/2023 -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

As off this writing, only three committees are open for a run at the office - one by Penzone himself, one by Joe Arpaio, the man Penzone defeated in 2016 (but that committee is very old and may not be intended for a run in 2024) and one by Jerry Sheridan, a former Arpaio henchman/deputy.  However, he formed his committee well before Penzone's announcement.  He was going to run regardless of everything else.

4. The first three items listed are "horse race" matters and will receive scads of attention from the MSM, if only because they're easy to report on.

However, while not as easy to report on, the next issue may be more significant.  It's about how races are run. I've listed it here at #4, but it may end up being the most significant issue in 2024.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/26/2023 -

98% of Arizonans will have new elections officials in 2024, report finds

Arizona has lost nearly all of its experienced election officials and 98% of the state will have new officials running elections in 2024 than ran the 2020 elections, a new report found. 

The Grand Canyon State has been center stage for election misinformation since 2020, with efforts such as the Arizona Senate Republicans’ “audit” of the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake’s continuing efforts to overturn her 2022 loss in the race for governor.

The state has also seen threats of violence towards election officials and those who help administer elections. Five recent cases from the U.S. Department of Justice were all from Arizona that included individuals who called for election officials to be killed and in some areas, such as in Yavapai County, one official ended up needing security from the local sheriff at their home.

This isn't just an Arizona problem, it's a national one.  

From The Union of Concerned Scientists' The Equation, dated 10/18/2023 -

2024 Election Workers Need Better Protection from Harassment

Most election workers are probably like my late mother-in-law. Mary Holmes spent many of her senior years volunteering at the polls in Cambridge, MA. She considered this work a part of her civic duty, just as she had decades earlier when she volunteered as a school traffic guard.  

She never voiced a moment of fear, either from motorists who respected her waving of arms and her reflective vest, or from voters, many of whom hurriedly hustled in and out of the ballot box on their way to work or on the way home from work to dinner. I cannot recall anything specific she ever said about this work. It was just what you did in a community. Her many years of service spoke for themselves about her pride in playing a seemingly small role in democracy.

We’ve learned more in recent years about how large a role she actually played. The mobs of January 6, 2021 and the malevolent harassment of election workers and officials all over the nation by deniers of the 2020 defeat of former President Donald Trump have left this slice of democracy on an unprecedented precipice. According to a report released last month by Issue One, a nonpartisan democracy think tank, roughly 40 percent of chief local elections officials in 11 western states have left their posts since the 2020 election.

The Issue One report referenced in both articles is here.

Kyrsten Sinema: Even the NRSC thinks she's toast

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From NBCNews, emphasis added by me -

Head of Senate GOP campaign arm shows Republicans internal poll with Democrat leading in Arizona

At a closed-door meeting Tuesday, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines showed fellow GOP senators an internal poll of a three-way Arizona Senate race that found Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading with 41%, followed by Republican Kari Lake with 37% and independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema with 17%, said a source familiar with the meeting.

Notably, Daines told Republicans that Sinema is currently pulling more votes from Lake than she is from Gallego, despite her longtime affiliation with Democrats before she became an independent last year.

Actually, the highlighted section may be an incorrect statement.

From the Political Wire post -

In a head-to-head matchup, Gallego leads Lake 49% to 44%.

Based on that, with Sinema in the race, Gallego is leading by 4%; with her not running, he's leading by 5%.  Seems like that she's pulling votes from him, so the NRSC may be hoping that she runs for re-election.  She's not going to win, but her presence helps Lake.

Kyrsten Sinema: already planning for her exit from the U.S. Senate

I think she still runs.  

The only way she doesn't is if she finds a way to keep her campaign's $10 million+ cash on hand for herself.

From Business Insider via Yahoo! -

Kyrsten Sinema said she doesn't care if she loses reelection because she 'saved the Senate by myself' and can go serve 'on any board I want to,' book says

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will face an exceedingly difficult re-election race in Arizona next year, if she chooses to run. But the Democrat-turned-independent may not be sweating it all that much.

According to reporter McKay Coppins's new book, "Romney: A Reckoning," Sinema once told Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah that she could "do anything" once she's out of office and feels that what she's done in the Senate is "good enough."

"I don't care. I can go on any board I want to. I can be a college president. I can do anything," she told Romney, according to the book. "I saved the Senate filibuster by myself. I saved the Senate by myself. That's good enough for me."

Hope that any board she joins gets a bigger meeting room because they'll need one for both her and her ego.

Senate reports are in*

* = Kari Lake entered the race too late to have to file a report this time around.

Net contributions and refunds are for the reported quarter (Q3 2023) while cash on hand is for the end of the quarter.

A few takes:

Ruben Gallego is doing well.  He's got more than $5 million in cash on hand and the vastness of his filing (10K+ pages!) indicates that many of his contributions are from small donors.

Mark Lamb is toast now that Lake is in the race.

Sinema is an interesting case.  She raised the least amount of cash and has the smallest filing of the three.  She also has the most cash on hand; actually, she has more than twice the total of Gallego, who's doing well.

She may not be raising much, but she's stockpiling what she has.

My guess is that she has one of three plans in place for the money (there may be others, but these seem to be the most likely to me):.

1. She intends to run for re-election, and is saving the cash for that.

2. She has found a way, or hopes to find a way, to keep the money for herself.  There are restrictions against doing just that, but if anyone has the smarts to figure out a way around them, she's got 'em.

3. She intends to gift the cash to one of the other candidates (Lake?).  Given her track record, this seems to the least likely of the three.

Looking at her report (hoping for some insight), I was struck by two questions -

1. She's reporting all contributions as being for the primary. As an I, though, she's not going to face a primary.  On the other hand, their may be some arcane FEC rule on the subject and this may be an actual violation.

2. She's still fundraising through ActBlue.  I thought that was a platform only for Democratic candidates and committees, and she is resoundingly not one.

Trump-appointed federal judge orders some corporate attorneys to be indoctrinated by a hate group

From AP via Yahoo! -

Legal experts question judge's order telling Southwest lawyers to get religious-liberty training

A federal judge has set off a debate among legal scholars by ordering lawyers for Southwest Airlines to undergo “religious-liberty training” by a conservative Christian legal group.

Critics say that if the judge believes such training is necessary, he should have found a less polarizing group to conduct it.

U.S. District Judge Brantley Starr made the decision after ruling that Southwest was in contempt of court for defying a previous order he issued in a case involving a flight attendant who said she was fired for expressing her opposition to abortion. She sued Southwest and won.

Starr, nominated to the bench by former President Donald Trump, said Southwest didn't understand federal protections for religious freedom. So this week, he ordered three of the airline's lawyers to undergo religious-liberty training. And he said that the Alliance Defending Freedom, or ADF, “is particularly well-suited" to do the training.

Ummmm......

ADF has been designated as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center

Starr is the nephew of noted, and late, conservative ideologue Ken Starr.

Starr was nominated by Cheeto and confirmed by the US Senate on a party-line vote, supported only by Republicans.  Even Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, then a Democrat in Name Only, now a Senator in Name Only, voted against confirming him.

Poll that says a 3rd party run by Kyrsten Sinema doesn't mean a victory for the GOP in the 2024 US Senate election

I don't believe it, but I'm going to leave this here.

From Noble Predictive Insights -

The Sinema Situation: Gallego's Edge and the Enigma of Sinema's Independent Run

Sinema's Third-Party Run Does Not Guarantee a GOP Victory in Arizona Senate Race

As the 2024 Arizona Senate race looms, recent public opinion polling data fromNoble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) – formerly OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) – latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) sheds light on some intriguing dynamics that challenge conventional political wisdom. Contrary to initial assumptions, the potential entry of Senator Kyrsten Sinema as a third-party candidate does not necessarily guarantee a GOP victory. The poll results indicate that Sinema faces challenges within her own party, which might make her path to victory more complex.

This AZPOP, conducted from July 13 – 17, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema: Under Water With AZ Voters

Hope she has gills.

From MorningConsult -

U.S. Senator Rankings: Manchin, Sinema Are Among America’s Least Popular Ahead of Potential Campaigns

How the senators stack up

Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming boasts a 70% approval rating in his state, making him the most popular senator, according to surveys Morning Consult conducted April 1-June 30 in all 50 states.

On the other side of the coin, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell remains America’s most unpopular senator, with roughly 3 in 5 Kentucky voters expressing disapproval of his job performance. His current position is in line with his standing in the first quarter of 2023, driven by his continued poor standing among Republican voters following his 2020 re-election.

[snip]

It's not all bad news for Sinema - she's marginally above water with D voters.

On the other hand, she's doing worse with Independent voters...and they represent a plurality among AZ voters.

My guess is that poll numbers won't mean anything to her.

According to her latest FEC filing (period ending 6/30/2023), she has more than $10.75 million in cash on hand

Prediction 1: The only way she *doesn't* run is if she finds a way to give her committee's cash to herself.

Prediction 2: The only way she wins is if Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) drops out of the race (seems very unlikely as he's outraising her by a wide margin) and the Rs nominate someone as crazy as Rep. Paul Gosar (not exactly out of the realm of possibility).

Kysten Sinema has some interesting associates supporting her as US Senator

Don't misunderstand me - she may still mount a third party/No Labels run in 2024 for the seat she currently holds, if only to give the seat to the Republicans.  Though I think she may be angling for a slot as Cheeto's VP choice.

From Mother Jones (emphasis added by me)-

No Labels Exposed: Here’s a List of Donors Funding Its Effort To Disrupt the 2024 Race

No Labels, the political outfit preparing to run a “unity” ticket in 2024 that Democratic strategists and Never-Trump Republican operatives fear will siphon votes from President Joe Biden, is what’s known as a dark-money group. Unlike political parties, political action committees, and House, Senate, and presidential candidates, it is not required to reveal who is funding it. And No Labels, which says it intends to raise $70 million to possibly place a third-party candidate on the presidential ballot next year, refuses to disclose who is financing this project. But Mother Jones has obtained a list of 36 wealthy contributors and corporate high-rollers who last year wrote big checks to support No Labels’ effort to win 2024 ballot lines in states across the nation. This roster includes past and present chief executives of major companies, including Loews Corporation (a vast conglomerate), Fluor (an engineering and construction giant), Abry Partners (a private equity firm), SailPoint (a tech firm), and Fortress Investment Group.

Among the No Labels backers are donors who contributed millions of dollars to Republican causes, such as past GOP presidential candidates and super-PACS connected to Republican congressional leadership, and several who have poured money into the Democratic presidential campaigns of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden. One donor provided a big chunk of political cash to Donald Trump. Generally, these No Labels supporters, who mostly made contributions of $5,600 to its 2024 project, appear to favor conservative candidates, though many have played both sides of the aisle, financing Republican and Democratic politicians. 

[snip]

 

Three donors on the list contributed to Trump, but only one, Allan Keen, a successful Florida real estate developer, gave a hefty amount. In the run-up to the 2020 election, Keen donated $135,000 to Trump Victory, a joint-fundraising committee that supported Trump’s reelection. Previously, Keen financially backed the presidential campaigns of George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, Jeb Bush, McCain, and Romney. More recently, he has donated to Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in December and became an independent.

At least 16 of the these 36 donors have graced Sinema with money.

I still consider her to be a dark horse candidate to be Cheeto's choice for a running mate.  Kari Lake, Greg Abbott, and others seem to be ahead of her right now.

However, she has a lot in common with Cheeto with many of the same deep-pocketed donors; maybe closer ties to Vlad will put her over the top.

Big Pharma has a creative definition for "negotiation"

Well, at least I have an answer for a question I asked a couple of days ago.

From AP -

Merck sues federal government, calling plan to negotiate Medicare drug prices extortion

Merck is suing the federal government over a plan to negotiate

 

Medicare drug prices, calling the program a sham equivalent to

 

extortion.

The drugmaker is seeking to halt the program, which was laid out in the 

Inflation Reduction Act and is expected to save taxpayers billions of

 

dollars in the coming years.

Unsurprisingly, most of their corporate PAC's (Merck PAC) go to Republicans (nationally; it was active in AZ until the end of 2018).

However, not *all* of their money goes to Rs; some of it goes to former Democrats.

From the FEC -

Is Kyrsten Sinema really a Republican at heart?

She sure fundraises like one.

From an email from her campaign -

There are a LOT of R talking points in her email; it's like she is trying raise fund from the R base.

Of course, every dollar they give her is a dollar that her hedge-fund running benefactors don't have to funnel to her campaign.

Arizona getting (mostly) national exposure, and (mostly) not in a good way

...First up, the national debt ceiling, something used by MAGA types and other ideological terrorists to threaten America.

From Politico -

Biden beware: Manchin and Sinema align with Republicans in debt negotiations

Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema saved the filibuster and cut down President Joe Biden’s agenda, delighting Republicans. Now they’re breaking with Democrats on the debt limit, and Republicans hope they keep it coming.

The two centrists, who spent Biden’s first two years in office at odds with the left, are glaring outliers on the debt drama in the party’s 51-member Senate caucus. While their Democratic colleagues insist on no negotiations until the debt ceiling is lifted, Manchin and Sinema are not only pushing for a bipartisan deal but positioning themselves as potential players in any future Senate talks on a way out of the crisis.

Referring to Manchin and Sinema as "centrists" is mislabeling them.  Better to refer to them by what they are - "Republicans in everything but name."

...Why do we keep electing Paul Gosar?

From the Southern Poverty Law Center -

CONGRESSMEN TO MIX WITH LEADER OF FPÖ, A PARTY 

FOUNDED BY NAZIS

At CPAC Hungary this week, Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona and Rep. 

Barry Moore of Alabama will speak alongside a global collection of 

radical-right figures, including the leader of an Austrian political party 

founded by Nazi SS officers.

CPAC Hungary, an offshoot of the U.S.-based Conservative Political Action 

Conference, puts that country’s autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in a 

global spotlight for a second consecutive year, surrounding him with 

like-minded figures from across the world. Orbán is an authoritarian leader 

whom Tucker Carlson regularly lauded on his show before Fox News 

canceled it last month. In addition to Orbán’s history of corruption and 

hostility to press freedom, he has given voice to the great replacement 

conspiracy theory espoused by radical-right extremists.

...Arizona, back to being punch line material for the rest of the country.

From the NBC series Night Court, broadcast on May 2, via TVFanatic, emphasis added by me -

Olivia: Where do you feel most safe?
Gurgs: Uh, the basement level of Bed, Bath, and Beyond; the world of aquatic birds at the Bronx Zoo; and this court.
Olivia: Yes! You love this court! It’s the thing I understand least about you, and you love Daylight Savings Time.
Gurgs: Well, I love anything that Arizona is not involved in.

Olivia is played by India de Beaufort and Gurgs is plated by Lacretta

...There's one good thing; at least, the geek in me thinks it's good. :)

From KPNX, written by Kevin Reagan -

Fontes officially declares Thursday as 'Star Wars Day' in Arizona

Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has officially declared Thursday as "Star Wars Day" in the Grand Canyon State. 

The proclamation coincides with May 4, a day often associated with the beloved 1977 film due to a classic line spoken by Alec Guinness' Obi-Wan Kenobi character. 

The line was "may the Force be with yo."

So who will be Cheeto's running mate in 2024?

Time for some idle speculation.

Current frontrunners:

Kari Lake.   The failed 2022 candidate has traveled the country, serve as Cheeto's surrogate.

    Pluses: Is female and is from a state that Cheeto needs to win in a general election.  Plus she regularly pushes Cheeto's "big lie" and whines almost as he does.

    Negatives: Isn't blonde.  Lost her election.  Won't help in the primary, because Cheeto will win the AZ primary which I expect him to win no matter what.

Greg Abbott.  The current governor of Texas.

    Pluses: Hates people of color and immigrants almost as much as Cheeto.  Wins elections.

    Negatives: Cheeto will win the general election in Texas no matter who's on the ticket with him.

    

Others in the mix :

Kristi Noem, the current governor of South Dakota.  She's as nuts as Cheeto.

Marjorie Taylor Greene.  Currently in Congress.  Makes Noem look sane.

Ron DeSantis, currently Florida's Governor and a presumed presidential candidate in 2024.  He and Cheeto aren't fans of each other, so if this happens, it will be a cynical move by both.

Tommy Tuberville.  Currently in the US Senate.  Cheeto likes to think that he's smarter than others.  In Tuberville's case, that belief might actually be true.

Gym Jordan.  Currently in Congress.  His penchant for looking the other way when facing sexual predators may endear him to Cheeto.

Kyrsten Sinema.  Currently in the US Senate.  A former Democrat who may be as self-centered as Cheeto.

Not gonna happen, either because Cheeto won't have them, or there's no way in hell that they'd take the gig:

Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and any R who voted to impeach him. Mike Pence.

There will be others in the mix as this early speculation.

Well, the first* Republican announces for the R primary in the 2024 race for US Senate

A "colorful" Pinal County sheriff not named Paul Babeu has announced his intent to run for the seat.

Mark Lamb, professional bigot and stone trumper (yes, I'm being redundant there) announced his candidacy today.  He's not the first R in that particular primary, hence the "*", but he's the first recognizable name to form a committee.

His treasurer is Lisa Lisker of Virginia.

Other Rs who may be looking at the race include (some of this speculation I've heard in news reports, some I'm pulling out of my...ear :) ):

Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson, Blake Masters, Doug Ducey, Mark Brnovich, Sal DiCiccio, and for a dark horse candidate, I'll toss out one name, Kyrsten Sinema.  If she becomes a Republican.  My guess is that even they won't accept her.

There will be others, of course, and not all of those listed will actually run, but I'll be surprised if at least two don't do so.

Short timer's disease; understandable but not good in most people, but utterly unacceptable in U.S. Senators.

For those who don't understand the term, from Urban Dictionary -

I call it "mailing it in" but whatever it's called, it's obvious that Kyrsten Sinema has it.

Press releases tend to be boring and uninformative, but they can be illuminating if someone reads into one.

And sometimes, one doesn't have to look too deeply. 

From the website of the Arizona House Democrats (emphasis added by me) -

PRESS RELEASE: Tsosie Joins Bi-Partisan 

DC Push to Save I-10 Widening Project

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 15, 2023

WASHINGTON, D.C. – In February Arizona learned that federal transportation authorities had rejected its request for $360 million in matching funds to widen a constricted 26-mile corridor of I-10 on the Gila River Indian Community. The largest of nine 2022 "mega grant" projects awarded was $292 million, and the average award was $130 million.

On Wednesday Representative Myron Tsosie, Republican House Transportation Chairman David Cook and Gila River Indian Community Governor Stephen Roe Lewis met with U.S. Department of Transportation officials and Senator Mark Kelly and staff for Senator Kyrsten Sinema to urge consideration of a scaled-back $130 million grant request. That request, if approved, could still move the project forward along with $640 million of accumulated state and Maricopa Association of Governments funding, Tsosie said.

"We greatly appreciate officials from the Department of Transportation and our Senators for hearing our concerns," said Tsosie, the ranking Democratic member on the House Transportation Committee. "Reconsidering and granting funds to widen the I-10 would be a huge benefit to the Gila River Indian Community and to our statewide economy that heavily relies on this important but overworked transit corridor. The meetings went well and we are optimistic about the outcomes."

In addition to meeting with Sen. Kelly and Sen. Sinema's staff, the delegation met with Christopher Coes, Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy, Paul Baumer, Senior Policy Advisor for Infrastructure Finance & Innovation and former Arizona State Representative Arlando Teller who is now Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tribal Affairs.

It's obvious that she's realized that she doesn't have a snowball's chance in Phoenix, in July, of winning reelection in 2024, and that her only hope is to act as a spoiler, gaining enough votes to give the election to whoever the Republicans nominate.

I thought that she had a chance at 20% of the vote before this bout of mailing it in.

However, with her current attitude toward doing her job, even double digits seems like a stretch goal; of course, 3-5% may be enough for her to be a spoiler.