Paul Penzone not seeking a 3rd term and will resign in January

Let the political games of musical chairs and idle speculation begin.

From AZFamily -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

Penzone also announced he would be stepping down before his current term is up, "I think it’s appropriate for me to depart of the office in January and clear the way so during the last year of my term going into elections, there aren’t distractions. It gives me a chance to pursue some opportunities to serve the public in several ways and to do some things that present themselves as incredible options and opportunities."

I'm not much into musical chairs, but I can do idle speculation with the best of them.

Caveat: No actual humans were talked for this.

I have no idea who the Democratic nominee will be; the R nominee will (probably) be someone who should be in prison used to work for Joe Arpaio.

As for Penzone's next gig, if it's not elected, I could only guess - maybe he's going to be the commissioner of the World Pickleball Tour.

OK, that's probably not going to happen. :)

Some speculation is that he plans to run for an elected office, so I'll talk about that.

US Senate - could happen, but probably not, and for two reasons.  1. Ruben Gallego has been in the race for a while.  2. Kyrsten Sinema is still lurking; a Sinema candidacy is expected to give the race to the R nominee.

US House of Representatives - could happen, but that will depend on other chips falling in a way that's favorable to him.  

If he entered the race against R David Schweikert, he'd almost certainly cause at least two of the announced candidates in the crowded Democratic primary there to withdraw.  I don't think it will happen, but given his documented history of taking on entrenched office holders with ethics issues, this one isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If he entered the race to replace Gallego in Congress, he would lose in the primary there - the candidates there have been active since before the moment that Gallego announced his intent to run for Senate.

If he entered the race for the seat held by Greg Stanton, well, I suppose it *could* happen, but I expect that he wouldn't enter that race unless Stanton announces that he won't seek another term.

Arizona Corporation Commission - the only state-level seats on the 2024 ballot.  Seems too low profile for him.

City Council, School Board, Justice of the Peace, and Constable slots - Not only do I not know where he lives (eligibility for those is residency-specific), I think those are too low profile.

State Legislature - he's highly respected; why would he want to lose that?  In other words, not gonna happen...though if he were to join the lege, he could serve as a counterbalance to John Kavanagh.

What I think will happen is that he will accept a position with the Biden Administration.

If that happens, there will be a certain synchronicity to that - Penzone's predecessor was pardoned by Biden's predecessor.

Basically, one skell pardoned another.

If Biden hires Penzone, it will be a situation where one decent human being hires another.

Candidate updates - state and (Maricopa) county

On July 13, Republican former legislator Kate Brophy McGee formed a committee to for run the district 3 seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to be vacated by Bill Gates, also a Republican,  He's not running for reelection because of threats directed at him and his family by MAGAts.

Prediction:  as she is what passes for a moderate in today's GOP, she'll face those same threats if she wins the R primary.

Actually, the MAGAt members of her party probably won't wait for their primary to be over before engaging in threatening behavior.

She'll be acting as her own treasurer.

From the website of the Maricopa County Recorder -

State Rep. David Cook (R-LD7) is going to challenge State Sen. Wendy Rogers (R-LD7) in the primary in that district.  He hasn't formed a committee as yet but he confirmed his intent with an appearance on KPNX's (Channel 12 Phoenix) Sunday Square Off.

Prediction:  Same as above, even if Rogers is found not to live in LD7 and can't run there.

Republican former legislator and failed Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem seems to be prepping for a run for Maricopa County Recorder.  Even though he lives in Pima County.

Prediction: No MAGAt threats (since he is one), but he may not run as he would have to move.

He hasn't filed a statement of interest with Maricopa County as yet, but the County hasn't updated that list since May 1st.

The list of Maricopa County offices to be elected in 2024 -

The AZSOS list of statements of interest is here.

Filing a statement of interest isn't mandatory before forming a committee and neither filing a statement of interest and/or forming a committee guarantees that the person doing so will appear on a ballot.

Best news about Election 2023? Sal DiCiccio is term limited

Note: I live in Phoenix Council District 8.  DiCiccio represents District 6.

This came up while I was considering my vote -

From The Ahwatukee Foothills News, dated January 11, 2023 (emphasis added by me)-

Election 2022 isn’t over as voters decide District 6 seat

Ahwatukee voters haven’t seen the end of the 2022 election cycle and have one more vote to cast.

That will be to decide whether Kevin Robinson or Sam Stone will replace Sal DiCiccio as their representative on Phoenix City Council. Term limits precluded DiCiccio from running again.

I've never said anything positive about the character of any member of the political class in New York/New Jersey, but even there, he'd be considered a piece of work.

My guess is that he's not done with us yet - he may be looking at the R primary for 2024 US Senate or for a run at Greg Stanton's seat in Congress.

Guessing that one of our senators, Kyrsten Sinema, isn't well read

At least, she hasn't read Dale Carnegie's "How to Win Friends and Influence People".

From CNN -

Sinema says lack of infrastructure vote 'inexcusable' and erodes trust within Democratic party

Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema strongly rebuked the House of Representatives' lack of a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill in a statement Saturday, calling the delay "inexcusable and deeply disappointing for communities across our country."

Sinema's statement came after a dramatic week in the House when Speaker Nancy Pelosi delayed the vote on the infrastructure bill because progressives threatened to withhold support until details are ironed out for the separate, massive social benefits and climate spending bill. President Joe Biden vowed Friday that Democrats will deliver on their agenda as congressional leaders attempt to resolve intra-party divisions that have put passage of the two bills in jeopardy.

Know what really "erodes trust within Democratic party"?

(Allegedly) Democratic electeds behaving like self-absorbed and anti-society Republicans.

Still, patience with Sinema is wearing thin, and not just mine.

From The Hill -

Arizona Democrats' frustration with Sinema comes to a head

Democratic anger with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) is beginning to reach a boil in Arizona over her opposition to Democrats’ $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, fueling speculation that a primary challenger could be awaiting her when she runs for a second term in 2024.

A handful of Democratic groups critical of Sinema popped up this week, with some looking to fund a potential primary challenger and at least one looking to specifically recruit Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) to run against her in the Democratic nominating contest. At the same time, the Arizona Democratic Party is threatening to hold a no-confidence vote on Sinema unless she falls in line with the rest of her caucus.

Someone can recruit Ruben Gallego all that they want, but I think that he may be the wrong Gallego to challenge Sinema (assuming she runs for for reelection and doesn't already have a corporate lobbying gig already lined up.)

Of course, if Sinema does actually run for reelection in 2024, she may face a primary challenge, not from a Democrat, but from Doug Ducey.

Yes, Kyrsten Sinema is in trouble

From Data For Progress (pointed to this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire) - 

WHO IS KYRSTEN SINEMA REALLY REPRESENTING?

Halfway through her term as Senator of Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema is finding herself seemingly at odds with the members of her party. Her dedication to preserving the filibuster has stood as a significant obstacle to enacting a number of important bills and to more general Democratic governance despite the party’s trifecta in Washington, DC. Most recently, her unwavering stance on the filibuster enabled Republicans to block the For the People Act, a sweeping voting rights bill that is popular with the Democratic base, leadership, and her constituents back home in Arizona. In a recent poll by Data For Progress, we found strong majority support for this bill and a number of others that are high on the Democrats’ policy agenda. We also found that Arizona voters from across the political spectrum are displeased overall with her performance as Senator. Taken together, this begs the question: if her policy stances are alienating leadership and voters alike, who exactly is Kyrsten Sinema representing in Congress?

Even if she makes it through a primary, in a general election, she'll have problems.

I expect that many of the folks who, like me, held their noses and voted for her in 2018, will skip the race if she's on the general election ballot in 2024.

It also may be why Doug Ducey is letting Mark Brnovich take on Mark Kelly in 2022 for his seat in the US Senate; in 2024, he wants to be the Republican nominee for POTUS, and may settle for being the R nominee for VPOTUS.  Depending on how that works out, he may accept the consolation prize of challenging Sinema for a spot in the US Senate.

The best thing for Sinema may be if the R nominee is someone who is utterly nuts; say a Gosar or Biggs.

On the other hand, they're in safe Congressional districts so they may not run for a Senate seat..