Things that make you go "hmmmm": Yee vs. Horne

Caveat: None of this is an accusation.  I don't believe in accusing someone of doing something based only on my own suspicions.  I need stronger evidence than that.

On the other hand, neither do I believe in coincidence.

In late June, a dark money PAC sponsored an over-the-top and unequivocally bigoted TV spot in the Republican primary for state Superintendent of Public Instruction, a race between incumbent Tom Horne and termed-out State Treasurer Kimberly Yee.

Most observers, including me, immediately blamed Horne.

It was an easy conclusion to reach - Horne is a bigot, lousy human being, and someone who is known to campaign unethically.

Yee won the primary -

The PAC that sponsored the ad, Arizonans for Election Integrity, filed their Q2 finance report on July 14th.  It covers the period from May 3, 2026 to June 30, 2026.

It shows two transactions; one receipt and one disbursement (expenditure).

The receipt -

So, they received $200K on 6/25 from an entity (CEG) with an address of a PO box in VA.

The disbursement -

Also on 6/25, they expended $200K - $10 to an entity with an address in VA.

The recipient of the largesse, Red Eagle Media, has a sketchy past.

Red Eagle is not registered with the AZ Corporation Commission; at least not under that name.

However, a search of the VA SOS' records indicates that they are a subsidiary of another company..

From the VA State Corporation Commission -

Know who else received $200K in June?

The AZ affiliate of Turning Point...received money from their federal mother organization.

While Yee was their anointed candidate in the primary and I'm *really* not a fan of the coincidence of $200K, the money was received on a different day AND many bills were paid subsequent to receipt of the funds.

It turns out another dark money group paid Conservatives for Effective Government $200K on 6/25.

From the Paradise Valley Independent, written by Stacy Mantle, dated 7/22 -

[snip]

Campaign finance records show the committee received a $200,000 contribution on June 25 from the Virginia-based Super PAC Conservatives for Effective Government, which had received a $200,000 contribution from Massachusetts-based Per Aspera Policy Inc. earlier that same day.

Horne publicly condemned the advertisement, saying he had no involvement with the committee or its messaging. Federal campaign finance records show funding for the ad passed through multiple political committees before reaching Arizonans for Election Integrity, which purchased the television advertising. 

From FEC filings -

The reporter, and the FEC filing, indicate that Per Aspera is based in MA, but their Form 990 tax filing indicates that they are based in VA, with the same PO box as CEG.

From ProPublica -

Peter Thiel seems to be behind Per Aspera..

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/26/2026

On the schedule for the week: nada.

The primary is over but nothing is happening at the lege.

Primary results are in and general election contests are set*

* = mostly

Curiously, the biggest beneficiaries of the Republican primary may be the Democratic candidates.

The victors in the R primary races were the most extreme candidates in those races.

Will that make it easy for the Ds?  Nope, not even close.

Will that make is easIER?  I think so, but that comes with a big caveat.  Weird things can happen in a general election, even without the cheating the Cheeto and his acolytes plan to bring to bear (I'm still trying to wrap my head around Tom Horne defeating Kathy Hoffman in 2022.  He may be the worst human being in Arizona politics.)

From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS), the unofficial results -

For AZGovernor - Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs will face Republican Andy Biggs, who defeated David Schweikert.

For AZSOS - Democratic incumbent Adrian Fontes will face Republican Alexander Kolodin, who defeated Gina Swoboda.

For AZAG - Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes will face Republican Warren Petersen, who defeated Rodney Glassman.

For AZTreasurer - Democrat Nick Mansour will face Republican Elijah Norton, who defeated Katherine Haley.

For AZSuperintendent of Public Instruction - Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz, who defeated Brett Newby, will face Republican Kimberly Yee, who defeated the aforementioned Tom Horne.  Yee v. Horne is still close enough to flip; I don't believe that it will, though.

For AZCorporation Commission - Democrats Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill will face two of the three Republicans who ran, Kevin Thompson, Ralph Heap, and Nick Myers.  The two current frontrunners are Thompson and Heap. However, while Thompson's spot atop the R ticket seems solid, Heap and Myers could switch spots as they are separated by less than 12,000 votes.

For the CD1 seat in Congress, Democrat Amish Shah, who defeated Marlene Galan-Woods, will face Jay Feely, who defeated Joe Chaplik.

For the CD5 seat in Congress, Democrat Elizabeth Lee, who defeated Chris James, will face Mark Lamb, who defeated Daniel Keenan.

The biggest upset of the night possibly was a down ballot/Maricopa County-only race.  

From the unofficial Maricopa County results -

"JP" = Justice of the Peace.

Former legislator Cheuvront was an incumbent JP in a downtown Phoenix justice precinct.

Justice precincts are crafted to meet two standards -

1. Workload balance.

2. Single party districts.

As such, there are two basic ways for a JP slot to change.- retirement or a primary challenge.

Cheuvront ran into the second one.

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/19/2026

On the schedule for the week: nada.

The primary election date is 7/21.

Q2 2026 Reports Are In! Statewide

This will cover certain state-level candidates

Some commentary:

Norton is still trying to buy the R nomination for state treasurer - 

R candidate for Arizona treasurer Elijah Norton has just over $300K in cash on hand (COH), which gives him a big advantage in that area over R rival Katherine Haley, who has just over $81K in COH.

Problem?

He's loaned his own campaign...wait for it...$2.75.million over the election cycle (he's repaid $50K).

And that may be undercounting his loans as that is based on his own reporting, and there is some conflict there -

To put his loan amount into some perspective, while he's loaned his own committee over $2.7 million, he's raised under $300 thousand from donors other than himself.

AZ Polling is in!

OK.  Only for R primary races.  And then only for statewide offices.

From KPNX, written by Brahm Resnik, dated 7/9 -

Andy Biggs dominates, Tom Horne trails in new poll of Arizona GOP primaries

Just 12 days before Arizona’s primary election, a new poll shows the Republican statewide races falling into three categories: one clear winner, three clear front-runners and one competitive race that could end School Superintendent Tom Horne’s political career.

The flash poll, by Arizona-based NextGen Polling, surveyed 1,707 high-frequency Republican primary voters who have cast a ballot in three or four of the last four elections. The poll, done July 8 and 9, has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. 

[snip] {Governor}

East Valley Congressman Andy Biggs has built an insurmountable polling lead over fellow Congressman David Schweikert of Fountain Hills. Biggs was supported by 66.1% of respondents vs 10.4% for Schweikert. Schweikert is losing his own 1st Congressional District by 41 points, 56.2% to 14.8%, according to the poll.

[snip] {SOS}

In the primary to serve as Arizona’s chief elections officer,  State Rep. Alexander Kolodin of Scottsdale has a 24-point lead over former Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda. Kolodin is up 44% to 20%, with 36% of respondents undecided.

[snip] {AG}

Senate President Warren Petersen of Gilbert leads lawyer Rodney Glassman of Phoenix by 15 points, 43% to 28%, with about 29% of respondents undecided.

[snip] {SPI}

In the most competitive statewide primary, incumbent Tom Horne finds himself trailing State Treasurer Kimberly Yee by 8 points, according to the NextGen poll. Yee leads Horne by 44% to 36%, with 20 percent of respondents undecided. 

[snip] {Treasurer}

Elijah Norton, CEO of a company that sells extended vehicle warranties, leads State Board of Education Chair Katherine Haley 43% to 20%, according to the poll. 

NextGen Polling took a poll in June; ad that one shows that the leaders in the races widening their leads in July over what they had June.  With one exception.

Gov. - Biggs 57%, Schweikert 11%

AG - Petersen 26%, Glassman 11%

SOS - Kolodin 16%,, Swoboda 11%

Treasurer - Norton 15%, Haley 12%

SPI - Horne 33%, Yee 24%

No real surprises here, though  I hoped that they would cover legislative races (including Democratic primaries) and the CorpComm race.

At this point, there's only one primary poll left, and it's the only one that counts.

Racism and bigotry rears its ugly head in AZ Republican primary

[begin sarcasm]

This is so surprising.

[/end sarcasm]

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez, dated 6/30 -

Arizona superintendent candidate Kimberly Yee calls attack ad 'racist,' blames opponent Tom Horne

A new TV attack ad targets Arizona candidate for school superintendent Kimberly Yee and accuses her of being too liberal. Both Yee and her opponent call it racist.

Yee, a Republican who currently serves as the state treasurer, is Chinese American and is portrayed in the ad with an Asian backdrop, the sound of gongs and the tagline “empress of DEI,” referring to diversity, equity and inclusion.

[snip]

Yee accused her primary opponent, Republican incumbent Tom Horne, of being behind it.

“Tom Horne and his supporters have clearly put out a racist attack, it’s out of line with Arizonans, and they have nothing but a failed track record to run on, so they’re reverting to racism,” Yee said Monday.

Tom Horne, the incumbent AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction, denied any involvement with the ad, but he's been known to lie.

I'm not a fan of Yee, but I'm more not a fan of Horne - he's a profoundly lousy human being, possibly the worst in AZ politics, and he has a LOT of rivals for the crown..

Yee is partially right when she says "it’s out of line with Arizonans..."

Actually, it's out of line with *most* Arizonans.

Most Arizonans don't vote in Republican primaries.

And the fact that the surrogates (Horne's?) believe that message will persuade voters in an R primary says a LOT about what they think of the character of R primary voters.

During the research for this post, I learned a couple of things.

1. The PAC behind this ad, Arizonans for Election Integrity, utilizes a CA-based company, Liberty Strategic Partners, hasn't registered with the Arizona Corporation Commission (at least, not under that name).  The California Secretary of State (CASOS) has the following information: 

Note: The listed agent here, Jonathan Huey, is listed as the Treasurer of the PAC -

2. There's a quirk in the financial reporting periods for committees that are politically active in AZ.

The post primary report period post dates the Q2 report period but is due *before* the Q2 report is due.

From the AZ SOS -

Initially, I thought they had simply skipped filing the Q2 report, which would be significant, as the expenditures for the ad were in Q2, but the Q2 report is not yet due.

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/12/2026

On the schedule for the week: nada, and I'm guessing there won't be anything until after the primary...of course, there probably won't be much afterward.

With friends like these...

It's not unheard-of for various industrial concerns to try to influence primary elections in AZ, often through PACs and/or membership organizations.

Usually, though, they're not this brazen or sloppy about it.

Note: While my ballot has already been returned and I did NOT vote for either, I do not blame either candidates for the things that will be called out.

On Wednesday, we received some political literature in the mail.  Not an unusual thing in an even-numbered year this close to an election.

At first glance, the lit wasn't unusual - it expressed support for a couple of candidates in LD8 legislative races by saying some nice things about them.

However, upon closer examination, there were a few problems with the lit.

Ummm....some basic copy editing could have found and fixed this.

Then...

Misspelling a candidate's name?

Bush league, at best.  Actually, here in AZ, we might refer to it as "tumbleweed league." 😀

Could have been resolved by reading the candidates' W-2s (or 1099s) or if that's too much work, I don't know, reading THE OTHER FREAKIN' SIDE OF THE LIT!

But neither of those is worse the outright lie on the piece.

"Not For Sale."

Sounds good...except that it's utterly contradicted by the "Paid for by..." statement on the other side.

The Arizona political quote of the year is in!

It's only early July and it's an election year (I'm sure there will be some juicy quotes surrounding the primary and general elections) but the bar has already been set very high by Republican State Representative Quang Nguyen.

From the Arizona Agenda, written by TJ L'Heureux (emphasis added by me) -

Turning Point’s temper tantrum

With less than two weeks to go before the July 21 primary election, the tension brewing within the Republican Party is on high — and it boiled over on Monday night when Tyler Bowyer, the chief operating officer of influential right-wing organization Turning Point USA, went on a Twitter rampage against two GOP lawmakers.

The episode featured naked racism, a hilarious acknowledgment of inconsistency by a Turning Point-endorsed lawmaker and a petulant un-endorsement.

[snip]

“I’m very far-right — I’m just not far-stupid.”

This particular competition is over, IMO.

Legislative Republicans nearly pull off the impossible...

...of course, they failed, but they were negotiating with themselves.

When doing that, it's kind of hard to pull off failure, but legislative Republicans achieved that.

Taking cues from someone who isn't involved doesn't seem to help.

From AZMirror, written by Jerod Macdonald-Evoy, dated 6/29/2026 -

School voucher special session deal is likely dead in the water

A plan by Republican lawmakers to call a special session of the Arizona Legislature to strike a deal with the state’s largest teachers union to kill a ballot initiative aimed at the school voucher program is likely dead in the water. 

In the final hours of the annual legislative session just three weeks ago, Republican lawmakers pushed through a ballot referral that, if approved by voters, would nullify the two citizen-led initiatives aimed at regulating the state’s billion-dollar school voucher program, formally known as the Empowerment Scholarship Account program. 

[snip]

Some long-time ESA advocates are continuing to push for what is now being called the “Biggs plan,” named after Republican Congressman and gubernatorial candidate Andy Biggs, despite signals from the ninth floor that the governor will not agree to that deal. 

Note: this headline was written before signature were due; they're now in, and "likely dead" has become "is dead."

Legislative Democrats noticed, and had something to say.

From their press release -

Legislative Dems Statement on Republican Special Session Failure on ESAs and Ballot Measures Attacking Educators, Fire Fighters and Law Enforcement

Senate Democratic Leader Priya Sundareshan and House Democratic Leader Oscar De Los Santos released the following statement regarding the Republican failure – announced today via social media – to come together on a special session to pass modest ESA voucher reforms and to claw back misleading ballot referrals attacking public schools, educators, firefighters and law enforcement.

"Republicans created this mess by rushing harmful and misleading ballot referrals through the Legislature, including an attack on teachers, firefighters, law enforcement officers and other public employees who wish to join a union and negotiate the terms of their employment. Today, they had the opportunity to come together and work with Democrats to pull back these rushed and ill-considered reforms and once again, they failed Arizona.

[snip]

What we saw today was a failure of leadership from Republicans in both chambers. While Speaker Montenegro and President Petersen stated they were negotiating in good faith – we now know the truth. There will be no special session. Instead, Republicans backtracked on the terms of a deal which were not only widely reported, but which they themselves put together.

The Arizona Education Association (AEA) noticed, too.

From their press release -

Arizona Labor Unions and Allies Slam “Biggs Deal” that Hurts Working Families and Enshrines Voucher Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in the Arizona Constitution

Today, labor unions and allied groups representing hundreds of thousands of working families, parents, and educators across Arizona released the following statement slamming Legislative Republicans for backing away from bipartisan voucher reforms in support of a so-called “Biggs Deal” that would block basic guardrails for the scandal-plagued ESA voucher program and risk millions of dollars in funding for Arizona school districts by keeping SCR 1032 on the ballot: 

"The Biggs deal is a non-starter that would be horrible for students, educators, parents, and working families across Arizona. When Republican lawmakers approached us with an offer to pass common-sense voucher reforms and drop their three disastrous referrals (HCR 2040, SCR 1032, and HCR 2048), we were open to good-faith discussions. After Biggs and his extremist allies intervened, their involvement left the Republican caucus divided and unable to negotiate in a serious or constructive way. We are no longer willing to participate in what has become a political circus.

My guess is that what happened here is that legislative Republicans floated the special session rumor and offered a one-sided "deal" (one where they gave up nothing while the other parties to the deal gave up all), and when the other parties didn't play their game, brought in Andy Biggs and his merry bunch anti-society cutthroats to take the blame for their own failure.

Legislative schedule - week starting 7/5/2026

One meeting is on the schedule, but it's required, at least in even-numbered years.

On Monday,7/6 and Tuesday, 7/7 - Nada.

On Wednesday, 7/8 

-

Legislative Council meets at 10 a.m. in HHR1.   It's a joint committee, comprised of members of both the House and the Senate.  On the agenda: no bills; a bunch of items regarding "Adoption of Ballot Analysis Pursuant to Arizona Revised Statutes, Section 19-124" for 12 ballot measures to be considered by the voters this fall, 10 of which were referred to the ballot by the legislature.  One of the measures scheduled to be proposed by the public, I-08-2026 – Free, Fair and Secure Elections Act, won't appear on the ballot as the organizers chose not to turn in the signatures that they collected.

ARS section 19-124 can be found here.

This meeting should generate some lawsuits - the ballot analyses for the measures proposed by the legislature will almost certainly be crafted in such a way as to favor those proposals while the analysis for the one measure proposed by the public will almost certainly be crafted in such a way as to oppose that measure.

On Thursday, 7/9 - Nada.

R CD1 primary debate

On 6/24, the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission (AZCCEC) held a debate between the three Republican candidates vying for their party's nomination to replace R David Schweikert, who is running for AZ Governor, former state rep Joe Chaplik, former NFL placekicker Jay Feely, and businessman John Trobough .

All of AZCCEC's debates are here.

Note: candidate pics are NOT from the moment of the quotation.

From the website of the AZSOS -

Summary: Watching this debate made my general election vote easier.  I was going to skip this race if one of two candidates emerged from the Democratic primary as the nominee.  They are people I would never vote for in a primary.  

However, all three R candidates are lousy human beings, and they showed it here.  Not gonna skip this race in the general.

At the 6:19 mark of the video, Feely stated that "He [Trump] and Jim Jordan asked me to run."

He may be touting their support, but the fact that an (alleged) pedophile and someone known for looking the other while people in his trust were molested themselves is NOT a glowing character reference for Feely.

At 9:39, Chaplik opined that ESAs are good for all Arizonans.

.

At 11:03, Feely blamed Democrats and undocumented immigrants for "affordability issues."

At 29:34, Feely issued a statement that was deceptive at best, and may actually be false.

"The Obama administration detained more American citizens as a percentage than the Trump administration has..."

There one problem with that.  From the American Immigration Council (the numbers from the "first year after President Trump took office" references 2017) [emphasis added by me] -

[snip]

In the first year after President Trump took office, ICE encountered 27,540 U.S. citizens. In comparison, during the last year of the Obama administration, ICE encountered 5,940 U.S. citizens. This trend suggests that some U.S. citizens who may “appear deportable” in the eyes of some U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers have become increasingly vulnerable to immigration enforcement in recent years.

2025 numbers here.

At 30:26, Feely then uttered something that's completely false.

"The Democrat Party is paying for those protesters to go there and interact with ICE and to try and get a reaction..."

At 31:38, Chaplik made sure to establish his "I hate immigrants, too" bonafides by pronouncing that "DACA has made the situation worse."

All of them love AI and data centers, but Chaplik's affection is a little more nuanced that the others.  At 38:12, he announced "I'm for data centers" but put them elsewhere, not in CD1.

He's not a huge fan of AI, though, because it has negatively affected him personally.  This also where the debate got a little fiery..

At 38:53, Chaplik stated, singling out Feely "My opponent put a sign up through his shady PAC out of DC that has a picture of me from AI..."

At 39:48, Feely retorted "I think it's disingenuous and he's just lying.  Joe knows that PAC has nothing to do with me, nothing to do with my campaign..."

All of this AI/data centers talk led into a discussion of one of the biggest issues facing Arizona, water.

One thing all seemed to agree on was their willingness to blame others for AZ's problem.

At 43:36, Chaplik pronounced "We've gotta stop California from dumping fresh water after they fill their few reservoirs they have into the ocean..."

At 44:00, he followed that up with "...when California is wasting their water because of their Democrat policies we need to make sure that Colorado River water is not being wasted into California..."

He wasn't alone in blaming others -Feely blamed Governor Katie Hobbs for not solving Arizona's water problems.

I shouldn't disregard the third candidate, John Trobough.

I *do* think he will come in third in this three-way primary, but I'm setting that prediction in stone - my prognosticating ability is notoriously bad when it come to R primaries.

At 45:06, he made a mistaken misstatement (at least, I believe it was a mistake) [emphasis added by me) - "We have a choice and we have an opportunity- we can be the gateway to the global economy for the world or we can be the bachelorette party capital of the world.  I actually prefer the latter..."

Gloria Rebecca Gomez of AZMirror has a report here.

Legislative schedule - week starting 6/28/2026

Nada on the schedule for now.

There have been rumors of a special session over ESAs/school vouchers, and they have been dutifully reported by the MSM.

However, there are two things to consider:

1. As yet, there's nothing scheduled.

2. My guess (and it's only that) is that nothing will happen - there's no upside for the supporters of ESA reform.  The special session scam seems like something floated by one or more members of the R caucus looking to shield ESAs from anything resembling real reform.

R LD27 Senate primary debate

On 6/22, the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission (AZCCEC) held a "debate" between the two Republican candidates for the R nomination for the State Senate seat in LD27, incumbent Kevin Payne and his challenger, Anthony Kern.

All of AZCCEC's debates are here.

From the website of the AZSOS -

Quotes were used around "debate" because Payne declined to participate and turned it into a Q and A session with Kern.

With either outcome, the R nominee will be a lousy human being.

Payne is already known for his dismissive demeanor toward his Democratic colleagues, often not even acknowledging their existence when encountering one.

Kern can best be described as "fact-dismissive."

At the 40:14 mark of the video, Kern claimed the accused killer of Charlie Kirk, Tyler Robinson, was a trans Democrat.

At the 41:02 mark of the video, moderator/interviewer T.J. L'Heureux of the Arizona Agenda advised him that wasn't so.

Kern shrugged off reality.

Earlier, he also called Robinson "deranged."  He may be that, I'm not a psychiatrist or psychologist who is qualified to make such a diagnosis.  Kern may want to think twice about categorizing anyone, though.

From AZMirror, written by Jerod Macdonald-Evoy, dated 5/5/2021 -

Where was Anthony Kern on Jan. 6?

Newly reviewed footage by Arizona Mirror raises new questions about former Republican lawmaker Anthony Kern’s activities around the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 as the lawmaker continues to participate in a recount of Maricopa County’s ballots from the 2020 general election. 

Kern has continually insisted that he did not breach the Capitol and no footage or other evidence suggested otherwise. Photos show Kern on the front steps. 

However, footage reviewed by the Mirror shows that Kern was present at other parts of the Capitol breached by protesters. 

Kern, who was an election denier in 2021, doubles down on that today - 

At the 17:40 mark, Kern stated "...What we saw in 2020 was absolutely ridiculous...I still believe that election was absolutely stolen and I will never sway from that because there's enough out there so we do need to get our election and President Trump..."

He never bothered to provide any evidence.

At 18:08, he stated "Elections have been stolen for the past 40 years."

Ummmm about that...

From Ballotpedia -

It's been over 34 years since Democrats controlled the State Senate and over 60 years since the Ds controlled the State House (control of the Senate was split in 2001/2002).

Should someone bother to inform Kern that if "elections have been stolen", it hasn't been by Ds?

Or will he just shrug that off, too?

While this isn't my district and none of these folks will be on my ballot, in an interesting way, watching this did help me with my choice in the CD1 Democratic primary.

Early on, at the 9:29 mark, Kern was asked if there was a Democratic member of the legislature he could/had worked with.

He named one, and that person is one of the candidates running in the CD1 Democratic primary.

If Kern likes a person, I won't vote for that person.