The survey results (of presidential historians) are in! Unsurprisingly, Cheeto is considered to be the worst-ever POTUS.

He's certainly the worst of my lifetime*.

Technically, I was alive during the LBJ administration, but I don't have a memory of him as POTUS.  Though

From NPR -

In historians' Presidents Day survey, Biden vs. Trump is not a close call

President Biden is in a tight race to keep former President Donald Trump from reclaiming the White House, recent polls show. But that's not how 154 historians and presidential experts see it: They rate Biden in the top third of U.S. presidents, while Trump ranks dead last.

The 2024 edition of the Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey has Biden in 14th place, just ahead of Woodrow Wilson and Ronald Reagan. Trump comes in 45th, behind fellow impeachee Andrew Johnson and James Buchanan, the perennial cellar-dweller in such ratings due to his pre-Civil War leadership.

The historians rated Barack Obama highly, and as I consider him to be the best POTUS of my lifetime, I don't disagree with them on Obama or Cheeto.  In between, however, there are some differences.

They rated Obama 7th overall and the best of my lifetime (and the highest ranked living ex-president), so I agree with that one.

Bill Clinton and Joe Biden were ranked 12th and 14th, respectively.  Clinton's ranking is a little high for my taste - top half, certainly though.  As for Joe Biden, I think he deserves an incomplete because his term is ongoing.

Ronald Reagan is ranked 16th, which is way too high - he took advantage of Richard Nixon's criminality. Society was tired and wanted someone in the White House who reminded them of the "good ol' days".

George HW Bush was ranked 19th, which was a little high, but I think that his biggest failing was that he wasn't Reagan - most of the folks who voted for him were hoping for a 3rd Reagan term.  They didn't get that.

Jimmy Carter was ranked 22nd, near the middle of the pack.  I have always thought he was underrated as a POTUS

Gerald Ford was ranked 27th; I don't disagree with that, but since he was an unelected placeholder who replaced Nixon, an incomplete might be appropriate here.

George W. Bush was ranked 32nd (which was way too high in my estimation) and until Cheeto, was the worst POTUS of my lifetime and it wasn't even close (I don't believe that it's a coincidence that both people who were the worst at being POTUS in my lifetime have MBAs - POTUS isn't a gig where the concept of right and wrong synchs up with profitable and not profitable.)  Also, W was in charge of the most corrupt presidential administration ever.

At least until Cheeto came along.

The biggest reason that I rate W ahead of Cheeto is, as bad as he was, is that I never thought he was a traitor.

Nixon was ranked 35th, which I feel is too high.  He made cynicism about politicians part of the American psyche.

Cheeto was ranked 45th.  The main reason he wasn't ranked lower is because there aren't more Presidents.

Paul Penzone not seeking a 3rd term and will resign in January

Let the political games of musical chairs and idle speculation begin.

From AZFamily -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

Penzone also announced he would be stepping down before his current term is up, "I think it’s appropriate for me to depart of the office in January and clear the way so during the last year of my term going into elections, there aren’t distractions. It gives me a chance to pursue some opportunities to serve the public in several ways and to do some things that present themselves as incredible options and opportunities."

I'm not much into musical chairs, but I can do idle speculation with the best of them.

Caveat: No actual humans were talked for this.

I have no idea who the Democratic nominee will be; the R nominee will (probably) be someone who should be in prison used to work for Joe Arpaio.

As for Penzone's next gig, if it's not elected, I could only guess - maybe he's going to be the commissioner of the World Pickleball Tour.

OK, that's probably not going to happen. :)

Some speculation is that he plans to run for an elected office, so I'll talk about that.

US Senate - could happen, but probably not, and for two reasons.  1. Ruben Gallego has been in the race for a while.  2. Kyrsten Sinema is still lurking; a Sinema candidacy is expected to give the race to the R nominee.

US House of Representatives - could happen, but that will depend on other chips falling in a way that's favorable to him.  

If he entered the race against R David Schweikert, he'd almost certainly cause at least two of the announced candidates in the crowded Democratic primary there to withdraw.  I don't think it will happen, but given his documented history of taking on entrenched office holders with ethics issues, this one isn't out of the realm of possibility.

If he entered the race to replace Gallego in Congress, he would lose in the primary there - the candidates there have been active since before the moment that Gallego announced his intent to run for Senate.

If he entered the race for the seat held by Greg Stanton, well, I suppose it *could* happen, but I expect that he wouldn't enter that race unless Stanton announces that he won't seek another term.

Arizona Corporation Commission - the only state-level seats on the 2024 ballot.  Seems too low profile for him.

City Council, School Board, Justice of the Peace, and Constable slots - Not only do I not know where he lives (eligibility for those is residency-specific), I think those are too low profile.

State Legislature - he's highly respected; why would he want to lose that?  In other words, not gonna happen...though if he were to join the lege, he could serve as a counterbalance to John Kavanagh.

What I think will happen is that he will accept a position with the Biden Administration.

If that happens, there will be a certain synchronicity to that - Penzone's predecessor was pardoned by Biden's predecessor.

Basically, one skell pardoned another.

If Biden hires Penzone, it will be a situation where one decent human being hires another.

Hunter Biden may be a lousy human being, but I hope he wins his lawsuit against the IRS.

I've said it before - Hunter Biden is  a poor excuse for a human being (being a deadbeat dad will earn someone that designation).

But he's now suing the IRS for talking about his taxes.

From Politico -

Hunter Biden sues IRS, alleging violation of his privacy

Hunter Biden is suing the IRS over disclosures two agents there made to Congress and the media about his taxes.

The lawsuit says two longtime IRS criminal investigative agents, Gary Shapley and Joseph Ziegler, illegally revealed tax details when they publicly raised concerns about the handling of the criminal investigation into the first son. It also accuses the IRS of failing to keep the two men from sharing Biden’s financial information.

Bottom line: if silence was good enough for Cheeto, it's good enough for Hunter Biden.  

And if yapping about Biden was fine, why wasn't yapping about Cheeto?

While I'm no fan of Hunter Biden, I'm *really* not a fan of hypocrisy.

Paul Gosar update: Kevin McCarthy is threatening to impeach Joe Biden, but he's going after the wrong person

The threat:

From Forbes -

McCarthy Threatened Biden With An Impeachment Inquiry—Here’s What That Is

KEY FACTS

There is no “explicit definition of what constitutes an impeachment investigation,” according to the Congressional Research Service, which prepares reports for Congress, so all that’s known about the inquiries is based on how they’ve been historically done.

Launching an impeachment inquiry—or impeachment investigation—is not a required step in the impeachment process, as it’s not outlined in the Constitution, but it’s usually the first step toward bringing articles of impeachment, according to the research group.

Yet, McCarthy seems to be OK with Nazi sympathizers being part of his caucus/base of support:

From Media Matters for America -

Rep. Paul Gosar promotes another antisemitic site that praises Hitler and denies the Holocaust

Rep. Paul Gosar yesterday used his House.gov newsletter to promote USSA News, a fringe site that has posted content calling the Holocaust “the Holohoax” and telling readers to “stand up for Hitler.” Gosar’s promotion of the antisemitic outlet comes just months after he sent followers to a different site that has also denied the Holocaust and praised Adolf Hitler. 

Gosar has frequently promoted antisemitic media in recent years. He has met with Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes and repeatedly spoke at his conferences; and he’s promoted virulent antisemite Vincent James Foxx.

Oh, and George Santos is still part of McCarthy's caucus.

OK, I'll say it: If Hunter Biden were any lousier a human being, he'd be a Republican

Pointed toward this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From USA Today (emphasis added by me) -

How the Biden family name became latest wrinkle in Hunter Biden's paternity battle

Hunter Biden is nearing judgment day in an Arkansas lawsuit to reduce his child support and prevent his daughter from taking his last name.

The president's son faces a deposition this month and a July trial against a woman, Lunden Roberts, who had his daughter Aug. 28, 2018. Biden was ordered in March 2020 to pay child support, but he asked in September 2022 to reduce the amount because of his changing income, which led to the pending trial.

Another point of contention deals with the child’s name. Roberts wants the child to have Biden’s last name because of the family's political prominence and business success, but he is opposed because of the "political warfare" she could face.

.

.

.

During a May hearing, lawyer Abbe Lowell revealed Biden is paying $20,000 per month in child support for a total of $750,000.

Mr. Biden, two things:

1. Pay what you owe.

2. The perfidy by Congressional Republicans and you doesn't justify you forsaking your child.

The President goes bipartisan when honoring people who defended the Capitol and the country from Cheeto's machinations

I would NEVER vote for Rusty Bowers, but any who stands up to a bully who a wannabe tinhorn dictator gets a little admiration from me, and apparently, Joe Biden agrees.

From CNN -

First on CNN: Biden to honor 12 people with Presidential Citizens Medal on two-year anniversary of January 6 insurrection

President Joe Biden on Friday plans to mark the two-year anniversary of the January 6, 2021, insurrection by awarding for the first time in his presidency the Presidential Citizens Medal to 12 people.

The individuals include law enforcement officers who were injured defending the Capitol, a Capitol Police officer who died the day after rioters stormed the building and election workers who rejected efforts by former President Donald Trump to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

From ABC15 in Phoenix -

Arizona politician Rusty Bowers to receive Presidential Citizens Medal at the White House

Arizona politician Rusty Bowers is set to receive a Presidential Citizens Medal this week at the White House.

Bowers was the Arizona House Speaker during the 2020 election and "(resisted) pressure from those seeking to overturn the election results,” according to the White House.

The ceremony will take place at the White House on Friday, Jan. 6, 2023.

The ABC15 article has a complete list of recipients.

What's old is new again for the NRA

Found this in my email from ConservativeIntel, a conservative fundraising organization -

Appealing to fear is NOT a new tactic for the NRA, especially against Democrats.  And there's one in the White House now.

From CNBC

In 2012, they went after then-president Barack Obama.

From Billboard.  Not a pic of him as president, but I like the pic.

From Politifact, dated 6/15/2012 -

Is the NRA right that Obama is 'coming for our guns'?

[snip]

"The gun control debate is over," said Rick Wilson, a GOP political consultant. "We live in a country where guns are a fundamental part of mainstream American culture. The moment I saw that Walmart now sells AR-15s (a type of semi-automatic rifle), I knew the debate was over."

[snip]

In a new campaign mailer -- the contents of which we expect to be repeated in emails and at dinner tables -- the gun rights group is casting Obama as a gun control crusader who is "coming for our guns."

In 2000, they went after then-president Bill Clinton.

From The White House

From CBS, dated 3/15/2000 -

NRA Targets Clinton

In televised ads and media interviews, the National Rifle Association has launched an all out attack on the Clinton administration as the president lobbies for more extensive gun laws in the wake of recent shootings.

But as CBS News Correspondent Jim Stewart reports, that's not just hot smoke and insults the NRA is blowing at President Clinton. It's a tried and true political strategy.

In the past week, the president has blamed the NRA for influencing lawmakers to stall gun control reforms, and the rifle association has accused the president of dragging his feet on enforcing existing gun laws. Then the gun group charged the president tolerated gun violence for political advantage.

Observers say the strategy looks familiar.

Every time there's a school shooting or mass killing, Clinton urges passage of new gun control laws. And every time—in order to deflect from the carnage, say some observers—you can count on the NRA to attack Clinton.

In 2016, they went after then-presidential candidate (and former US Senator and Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton.

From the National Women's History Museum

From US News and World Report, dated 9/22/2016 -

NRA Ad: Hillary Clinton Could Get Rid of Your Guns

A new advertisement from the National Rifle Association asserts that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton will take away people's right to self-defense via firearm.

The ad, which runs for 30 seconds, features a woman in bed hearing the sound of breaking glass in her house and leaping up to call 911.

“She’ll call 911," a narrator says. "Average response time: 11 minutes. Too late.”

The woman reaches for a safe and inputs the code to get out a handgun, but then the safe and the gun disappear.

“She keeps a firearm in this safe for protection. But Hillary Clinton could take away her right to self-defense,” the narrator explains. “And with Supreme Court justices, Hillary can.”

It's been said that consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.

The NRA is *very* consistent.

A Christmas tale of two presidents

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

I think Cheeto's handlers should do two things -

1 Take his phone away; if he can't post, he can't post ugly things.

2. Put him on a peanut butter and crackers diet with any water he needs admistered by IV; if he can't talk, he can't say ugly things.

Time for some 2024 speculation

Yes, the 2022 election is barely in the books and the inevitable lawsuit has been filed but not resolved, but 2024 races have already started.

First, a few caveats:

1. No actual humans were spoken to during the production of this post.  This is purely about me throwing ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks.

2. Any names/people mentioned here are folks who I think may look at running for a particular office but that doesn't mean that I think that all will actually run for that office.

3. Anyone who currently holds an office will be presumed to retain that office, if they actually run for it.  Some will be vulnerable and will lose their offices.

US President:

The 2020 nominees, Joe Biden and Cheeto, are making noises about running (actually, Cheeto has already announced his candidacy).  However, I don't believe that either will actually run in 2024.  They'll both be *old*.  Right now, both are making noises about doing so because of Biden's desire to not to already be seen as a lame duck POTUS and Cheeto's desire to not be seen as incarcerated.

And his ego.  Cheeto's vanity is boundless.  For him, the presidency is less about public service and more about self-aggrandizement. And profit.

US Senate seat from Arizona:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat is up for election, and her decision to change her registration to Independent opens up the Democratic primary in a big way,

The Republican primary was already going to be wide open but her move may make it wilder.

Doug Ducey, the current governor in AZ, has long been rumored to be eyeing Sinema's seat.

Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General in AZ, may have lost the R Senate primary in 2022 and is term-limited as AG, but he doesn't seem to be going away - he's running radio ads catering to rural voters.  He may simply be burning off his budget, but I think that he's keeping his options open.

Paul Gosar and/or Andy Biggs, both are batshit crazy members of Congress.  Assuming they avoid going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

Kelli Ward, currently the batshit crazy chair of the AZGOP.  Assuming she avoids going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

An unnamed vassal of a rich guy who's looking to by a Senate seat.  Think: 2024 version of Blake Masters/Peter Thiel.

Other election-denying/anti-democracy Rs may also looking at the seat.

With Sinema's change, the R primary transitions from being the political equivalent of a pro wrestling battle royal to being an outright bar brawl.

If Sinema appears on the ballot, it will have the effect of siphoning votes away from the Democratic nominee, so if the R nominee isn't a batshit crazy ones, they'll win in a walkover; if the R voters pick a crazy nominee in their primary, the race will closer, maybe close enough for the D nominee to win.  For the record, while I consider Ducey and Brnovich to be poor public servants and simply lousy human beings, they're not batshit crazy.

The Democratic primary will be less wide open than the Republican primary but it will be more open than it would have been before Sinema left.

Ruben Gallego, current member of Congress, is the very early favorite here because he was already going to challenge Sinema in the primary when she was still a D.

Greg Stanton, current member of Congress and former mayor of Phoenix, has already made noises critical of Sinema.  From Twitter (pic taken yesterday) -

Other Ds who may be looking at the race -

Kate Gallego, current mayor of Phoenix.  Termed out and will not be in office in 2024.

Regina Romero, current mayor of Tucson.

Raquel Teran, currently in the AZ State Senate and the chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.  In AZ, it's almost a tradition that one doesn't become a state party chair without running for high office.

Kathy Hoffman. currently the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction.  She lost her re-election bid in 2022.

US Congress -

I expect that most of the current officeholders here will retain their office, but three of the Rs will be especially vulnerable - Juan Ciscomani in southern AZ and Eli Crane in Northern AZ because they will be first termers and David Schweikert because he's ethically challenged.

Also, if Ruben Gallego and/or Stanton run for the Senate, it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 (or more) of the others listed as potentially running for Senate to look at those seats instead.

Arizona Corporation Commission -

Three seats will be on the ballot.  They're currently held by D Anna Tovar and Rs Lea Marquez Peterson and Jim O'Connor.  While I expect that all of them will run for reelection I cannot and will not guess at what the primary fields will look like here.

Guessing that Biden's response to Fiona won't involve throwing paper towels

From Axios -

Hurricane Fiona brings "catastrophic" flooding, power outages to Puerto Rico

An intensifying Hurricane Fiona is bringing heavy rains, high winds and power outages to Puerto Rico. The power has been knocked out to the entire island.

The big picture: The storm is dumping more than two feet of rain in Puerto Rico, "causing catastrophic" flooding, the National Hurricane Center warns. Hurricane-force winds have taken out the island's fragile power grid.

• Fiona made landfall near Punta Tocon, on the island's southeastern coast, around 3:20 p.m. local time with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, per an NHC tweet.

• The storm has seen winds increase by 15 mph since the NHC updated on then-Tropical Storm Fiona at 8 a.m. ET.
• Fiona is a Category 1 hurricane and is expected to remain so through landfall in Puerto Rico.
• Ponce, on the southern side of the island, has seen sustained winds of 69 mph with a maximum wind gust of 103 mph, per the Hurricane Center.
• President Biden has declared a federal disaster for Puerto Rico, mobilizing the delivery of aid to the island.

Cheeto took a *slightly* different approach when Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico in 2017

From BBC -

Puerto Rico: Trump paper towel-throwing 'abominable'

IMAGE SOURCE,REUTERS

Image caption,

Trump tossed rolls of paper towels into the crowd

The mayor of Puerto Rico's capital, San Juan, has described Donald Trump's visit to the hurricane-hit island as "insulting" and called him a "miscommunicator-in-chief".

Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz described his televised meeting with officials as a "PR, 17-minute meeting".

The sight of him throwing paper towels to people in the crowd was "terrible and abominable", she added.

Mr Trump tweeted it had been a "great day" in Puerto Rico.

Stating the obvious time: The R demographic skews older

From an article from KTVK/KPHO, re-published from Stacker -

Counties with the most seniors in Arizona

Seniors will comprise more than 20% of U.S. residents in 2030, up from 15% in 2020.

By 2034, older adults will outnumber children, according to Census Bureau projections. Across the U.S., 52 million Americans are 65 years or older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and a quarter of them live in just three states: California, Florida, and Texas. By comparison, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming, and Alaska each have fewer than 150,000 senior residents.

[snip]

Stacker compiled a list of counties with the most seniors in Arizona using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Counties are ranked by the highest percentage of residents 65 years or older according to 2020 5-year estimates. Keep reading to find out which counties have the most seniors in Arizona.

I noticed that some of the highest-ranked counties tended to be red counties.

(Ranks and senior citizen data from the article; voter registration [as of August 2022] and voting history data from the Arizona Secretary of State's office)

Most counties in AZ voted the way their registration advantage indicated they would (i.e. - D counties voted for Biden; R counties voted for Cheeto).  There were two exceptions to this - D-leaning Yuma County voted for Cheeto while R-leaning Maricopa County voted for Biden.  Both voting margins were close and the registration advantages are also close.

It isn't a coincidence that the six counties in AZ with the highest percentage of senior citizens are also R-leaning.