Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.

Early ballots are beginning to arrive

And mine has already arrived.

The ballot is long this year -

I was going to skip one race (CD1) if the Democratic nominee ran as R-lite in the general election campaign.

Amish Shah, the Democratic nominee, has done so; however, a Republican, House Speaker Mike Johnson said something on NBC's Meet The Press today that made change my mind on the topic.

Johnson stated the the U.S. had a peaceful transfer of power after the election in 2020.

From the NBCNews transcript of today's MTP episode (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON:

That’s – no, the point is the process works. We have the peaceful transfer of power. We did in 2020. We will in 2024. Everybody can sigh and take a deep breath. Our system is going to work. We have the greatest system in the history of the world because we live in the greatest country in the world. But that last part is in jeopardy right now. This is a decisive election, and everybody knows it, and that's why we're going to be -- have given the chance to run this country again and we're going to turn it around, and I can't wait.

The people who feared for their lives and the families of those killed during the insurrection of January 6, 2021 may disagree on that subject.

Bottom line:  There's no way that a shameless liar like him should be allowed to continue to be speaker and this race may end his speakership, if Shah wins the race.

Another race that was, interestingly, also decided for me by a Republican (many Republicans, in this case) was the race for Maricopa County Recorder.

If Republican incumbent Stephen Richer made it through their primary to face Democratic challenger Tim Stringham in the general election, I would have had a decision to make.  I value competence.

However, R voters my decision an easy one - they nominated Justin Heap, an unqualified ideologue, for the job.

My take on statewide ballot questions is here;

As for the retention of the judges who are on this year's ballot, Civic Engagement Beyond Voting has a scorecard here.

The complete report from the Arizona Judicial Performance Review Commission (JPR) is here.  One caveat:  a commission that is part of the state's judicial branch believes that all of the judges on the ballot meet their standards. [start sarcasm] Quelle surprise! [/end sarcasm]

What JPR doesn't evaluate or even care about are judges who are lousy human beings and worse public servants.

I'll be voting to not retain Clint Bolick and Kathryn King of the AZ Supreme Court and Angela Paton of the AZ Court of Appeals.  Bolick and King voted to uphold Arizona's pre-statehood abortion ban and Paton is unqualified for two reasons: 1. she's a Federalist society stooge and 2. she's married to former legislator and current industry lobbyist Jonathan Paton, who was one of the authors of Proposition 137, the scheme from legislative Republicans to do away with judicial retention elections.

Note: Bolick, King, and Paton were appointed by former governor Doug Ducey.

The one Maricopa County judge I'll be voting to not retain is civil court judge Christopher Coury, who's got temperament issues.

Is "slow walk" on the exercise list for the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors? If so, they're about to get very fit

 First, the caveats about some of the folks mentioned in this post:

Future Rep, Jevin Hodge ran for Congress in 2022 and I contributed to that campaign.

Former Rep. Jennifer Longdon is someone I've voted for and I contributed to her reelection campaign.

Former Rep. Amish Shah is someone I've voted for and I signed his nominating petition a few cycles ago.

Former State Rep. Athena Salman resigned on 1/1.  The MCBOS finally appointed Jevin Hodge to fill her seat yesterday.  LD8 is still down a rep though - he won't be sworn in until tomorrow.

Of course, LD8 has more representation than LD5.  Both reps from LD5, Jennifer Longdon and Amish Shah have resigned.

LD5 will be completely without any representation in the AZ House until the MCBOS gets around to doing its job.  I don't recommend that anyone hold their breath while waiting for that to happen.

Salman and Longdon have left the legislature to pursue other opportunities while Shah doing something similar - he resigned in order to focus on a run for Congress.

On the other hand, former Rep. Leezah Sun of LD22 was in a "resign or get expelled" situation.

So, she left on her own.

I wish them all well in their future endeavors, even Sun.

Though the people of their districts shouldn't expect them to be replaced soon.

Hope David Schweikert (R-Ethics Issues) isn't claustrophobic

'Cuz the field to unseat him is a crowded one.

There's a new entrant on the Democratic side of race - 

Ireland-born Wall Street guy Conor O'Callaghan.  Long-time Democratic activist Jeanne Lunn will serve as his committee's treasurer.

As of right now, Democrats O'Callaghan, Kurt Kroemer, Marlene Galan-Woods, Andrei Cherny, Amish Shah, and Andrew Horne are running for Schweikert's seat and I expect that they won't be the only entrants in the Democratic primary.

A list of statements of interest filed with the Arizona Secretary of State is here.

Plus, I expect that Schweikert will be challenged in the primary, from his party's right wing.

While, like most R electeds, he has ethics "issues," he doesn't seem to be quite as bigoted as fellow R Paul Gosar.

Caveat1 - This is my district now, but I have *not* decided who to vote for, and I won't make that decision until I have a ballot in hand.

Caveat2 - Forming a committee or filing a statement is no guarantee that someone will be on a ballot, nor is such required before being on a ballot.

The CD1 candidate field is getting crowded

Kurt Kroemer, an experienced exec for non-profits, has formed a committee in the D race to unseat the vulnerable R David Schweikert.

Kroemer has already started his campaign - he sent out a mass text on Wednesday.

He joins Amish Shah, a doctor and member of the Arizona Legislature, and Andrei Cherny, a former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, in the race.  

They may be the earliest entrants, but I don't expect them to be the last ones.

Disclosure time: While I haven't made a decision as yet, because of a move, I now live in CD1 and will be voting in this primary.

Well, we have the first official Democratic primary for Congress. Actually, we have two.

And it's still early.

On 4/4, Phoenix City Council member Yassamin Ansari formed a committee for a run at replacing Senate candidate Ruben Gallego (D) in CD3.

On 4/5, State Senator and former chair of the AZ Democratic Party (ADP), Raquel Teran formed one for a run at the same seat.

It's widely expected that Laura Pastor will jump into the race, too.

On 4/6, a name who's a bit of blast from the past, former ADP chair and 2012 candidate for Congress, Andrei Cherny formed a committee for a run at the CD1 seat held by ethically challenged R David Schweikert.  He joins current State Rep. and doctor. Amish Shah in the race.

I do expect there to be Democratic primaries in R held districts CD2 (Northern AZ) and CD6 (in Southern AZ), so 2024 should be a popcorn-riffic year.

And I haven't even discussed the many Rs who will run for the U.S. Senate, none of whom has formed a committee as yet.

State Rep. Amish Shah files for a run for Congress

Dr. Amish Shah, a Democratic State Representative from LD5 has formed a committee with the FEC for a candidacy for Congress.

He's not running for Ruben Gallego's soon-to-be vacant seat, but is challenging the unethical David Schweikert instead.  In 2022, Schweikert won re-election by a little over 3K votes over Jevin Hodge, a Democrat with lots of energy but almost no name recognition.  He's vulnerable.

The treasurer for the committee is Heather Mrowiec.

The form filed with the FEC is here.