Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.

Short Attention Span Musing - justice system edition

And, surprisingly enough, Cheeto and his many indictments aren't part of it.

...First up: the big news of the week.

From AZ Family, written by Peter Valencia, dated 11/29 -

2 Cochise County supervisors indicted for 2022 election interference

The Arizona Attorney General’s Office has announced that a grand jury has handed down an indictment against two Cochise County supervisors.

The indictment was filed Monday in Maricopa County Superior Court. According to the AG’s office, Peggy Judd and Terry “Tom” Crosby conspired to delay the canvass of votes cast in the county during the November 2022 General Election. Both now face felony offenses of conspiracy and interference with an election officer.

A press release from Attorney General Kris Mayes is here.  The indictment itself (part of the press release) is here.  From Maricopa County Superior Court records: the case number is CR2023-008495.

Arraignment is scheduled for 12/21/2023

Guessing that Kelli Ward and the other 2020 fake electors were hoping that election-denying would get lost in the hubbub.

My guess: Not so much.

Other news:

...The U.S. House expelled Rep. George Santos (R-NY) by an overwhelming margin this week.  However, Arizona's representatives in Congress weren't exactly unanimous in the desire to expel the oft-indicted member.

From the vote:

All Democratic members from AZ voted to expel Santos, but four GOP members from AZ voted to protect criminality -

Crane (AZ2), Biggs (AZ5), Gosar (AZ9), and Lesko (AZ8).

Not surprising: Biggs and Gosar are relentlessly partisan bigots and Crane is their ideological saddle partner.

Surprising:  Lesko.  I figured that if there was a fourth AZGOPer to vote to protect Santos, it would be David Schweikert.  He's got ethical issues of his own, thought he would vote to help one of his own.

I was wrong.

...Arizona Supreme Court Justice Bill Montgomery (R-Dougie) recused himself from a case involving Planned Parenthood, a group that he's demonized in the past.

From AZ Mirror, written by Gloria Rebecca Gomez, dated 11/30 -

Anti-abortion AZ Supreme Court Justice recuses self from abortion case

An Arizona Supreme Court judge who once accused Planned Parenthood of committing genocide has agreed to recuse himself from a case involving the organization that will determine the future legality of abortion in the state. 

In October, Planned Parenthood Arizona called for Justice Bill Montgomery to step away from the case after the resurfacing of a 2017 Facebook post in which he said its national counterpart was responsible for the “greatest generational genocide known to man.” The organization, which runs four of the state’s nine abortion clinics and is the main litigant in the case, argued that Montgomery’s vehement opposition to it threatens to jeopardize its right to a fair and impartial trial. 

There are many amicus briefs filed for this one.

It's scheduled to be heard by the AZ supes on 12/12.

..And in sad news,  Arizona icon Sandra Day O'Connor, the first woman on the U.S. Supreme Court, has passed away at age 93

From AZ Mirror, written by Ashley Murray, dated 12/1 -

Sandra Day O’Connor, who made history as the first woman on the Supreme Court, dies at 93

The first woman to serve on the nation’s highest court is dead at 93.

Sandra Day O’Connor, a groundbreaking justice on the U.S. Supreme Court, died Friday in Phoenix, of complications related to advanced dementia, probably Alzheimer’s, and a respiratory illness, according to an announcement from the court.

President Ronald Reagan nominated O’Connor in 1981, and she was confirmed by the full Senate, 99-0, in September of that year

I didn't always agree with her, but always thought she was a decent human being.

My deepest condolences go out to her family and friends.

Federal Committee update

 

Democrat Nez is a former President of the Navajo Nation who's seeking the Congressional seat currently held by stone bigot Eli Crane.

In 2020, he was a Presidential elector for the eventual winner, Joe Biden.

McCarthy out as speaker

Time for a mea culpa - not that I liked McCarthy, but I did predict that he would survive the first vote to depose him because the person leading it, Matt Gaetz, was so universally reviled by his colleagues..

I was wrong.

Oh, Gaetz' colleagues in the House still can't stand him, but they voted to depose McCarthy anyway.

From USA Today -

Kevin McCarthy ousted from House speakership after Republican rebellion: What you missed

Republican Kevin McCarthy’s deal with hardline House conservatives that handed him the speaker’s gavel in January unraveled on Tuesday as those same right-wing rebels, joined by Democrats, shoved him out of the seat.

McCarthy’s 269-day reign as speaker was ended by a 216-210 vote, a move that has no marker in modern history and paralyzes Congress for the time being.

The rebellion, led by conservative hardliner Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., has roiled the House in chaos. The move to oust McCarthy – known as a motion to vacate – had the support of a handful of hard-right lawmakers who have expressed anger at McCarthy for working with Democrats to avert a government shutdown.  

The House vote is here.

Two AZ Republicans were among those who to depose McCarthy.

On this vote, a "yea" is a vote against McCarthy while a "nay" is a vote to support his tenure as speaker.

Shutdown delayed; McCarthy on the clock

The MSM likes to say a shutdown has been "averted," but in reality, Congress just kicked the can down the road for 45 days.

From AP --

Government shutdown averted with little time to spare as Biden signs funding before midnight

The threat of a federal government shutdown suddenly lifted late Saturday as President Joe Biden signed a temporary funding bill to keep agencies open with little time to spare after Congress rushed to approve the bipartisan deal.

The package drops aid to Ukraine, a White House priority opposed by a growing number of GOP lawmakers, but increases federal disaster assistance by $16 billion, meeting Biden’s full request. The bill funds government until Nov. 17.

[snip]

The outcome ends, for now, the threat of a shutdown, but the reprieve may be short-lived. Congress will again need to fund the government in coming weeks risking a crisis as views are hardening, particularly among the right-flank lawmakers whose demands were ultimately swept aside this time in favor of a more bipartisan approach.

Thanksgiving will be on November 23 this year; this funding will expire just before that.  So we'll going through this again during the run up to that holiday.

Of course,  Kevin McCarthy may not be Speaker of the House at that point.

From BBC (UK) -

Hardline Republicans seek to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy

A hardline Republican says he will seek to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week, after he pushed through a last-minute spending bill with support from the opposition Democrats.

Mr McCarthy submitted the bill - aimed at averting a government shutdown - in defiance of the right of his party.

They had already vowed to topple him if he tried to overcome their opposition with Democratic support.

Hardline Republicans in both houses of Congress voted against the motion.

[snip]

On Sunday, Rep Matt Gaetz vowed to oust Mr McCarthy, telling the CNN that House Republicans needed "trustworthy" leadership.

"I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week," said Mr Gaetz, long a vocal critic of the Californian congressman. "I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy."

I think that McCarthy will survive the initial threat to his speakership, if only because Gaetz is so profoundly and personally unpopular.

Plus, instead of voting for Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, the Rs will try to select a speaker from their caucus.

And though he may be a lousy human being and a worse public servant, the least bad R may be the one that they're intent on deposing.

The Senate vote on the measure is here.  The only surprise in it is that a certain Senator from Arizona didn't vote against the measure because it didn't contain enough money for hedge fund managers.

The House vote on the measure is here.  No surprises here. Arizona Republicans Biggs, Crane, Lesko, Schweikert, and, of course, Paul Gosar voted against it; all other members from AZ voted for it.

It appears that Eli Crane is trying to unseat Paul Gosar as being considered AZ's most bigoted member of Congress

He's got a long way to go, even with this utterance, but this is a good start.

At the very least, he's staked out the "more bigoted than thou" turf in any R primary in his district.

From NBCNews -

Arizona Republican refers to Black Americans as 'colored people' in House floor debate

Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz. referred to Black people as "colored people" Thursday in floor debate over his proposed amendment to an annual defense policy bill, prompting a stern rebuke from the former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus.

“My amendment has nothing to do with whether or not colored people or Black people or anybody can serve,” said Crane, who is in his first term. “It has nothing to do with any of that stuff.”

Gotta love taxpayer-funded propaganda sessions

Even though the Arizona Legislature is on vacation until next month, there will still be scads of BS spewed at the state capitol next week.

This time, it will be about spewing anti-Covid response BS.

On Thursday and Friday next week, an informal committee will meet, with infamous pandemic deniers such as state legislators Rep. Janae Shamp, Sen. TJ Shope, and Rep. Steve Montenegro and Congresscritters Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs, and Eli Crane on it.

The committee will go by the (relatively) innocuous-sounding name of "Novel Coronavirus Southwestern Intergovernmental Committee."

The spewers-in-chief will listen to "testimony" from a veritable rogues' gallery.

First up (at least, he's first on the agenda):

Dr. Peter McCullough.  When I Googled his name, this came up (emphasis added by me) -

Next up: Dr. Lionel Lee, a Kari Lake supporter, and Dr. George Fareed, someone who's testified to the US Senate in support of giving Hydroxychloroquine to Covid patients.

Then:  Aaron Siri, an anti-mask lawyer.

Closing the first day's "testimony": Kurtis Bay, someone who blames (behind a paywall) the FDA for his wife's death from Covid.

The second day starts off with McCullough again.

Next up: Dr. Richard Urso, someone who has notably lied about Covid boosters.

Then: Dr. Pierre Kory, known for promoting Ivermectin as a treatment for Covid.

Next to speak: Dr. Lela Lewis, a religiously devout doctor who is the head of an anti-Covid vaccine group.

Last up: Anne Teixeira.  Can't find much about her.  I'm not sure, but she seems to be a Phoenix-area speech-language pathologist, which wouldn't qualify her to pontificate on Covid

Except in front of a committee like this one.