Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.

Short Attention Span Musing - justice system edition

And, surprisingly enough, Cheeto and his many indictments aren't part of it.

...First up: the big news of the week.

From AZ Family, written by Peter Valencia, dated 11/29 -

2 Cochise County supervisors indicted for 2022 election interference

The Arizona Attorney General’s Office has announced that a grand jury has handed down an indictment against two Cochise County supervisors.

The indictment was filed Monday in Maricopa County Superior Court. According to the AG’s office, Peggy Judd and Terry “Tom” Crosby conspired to delay the canvass of votes cast in the county during the November 2022 General Election. Both now face felony offenses of conspiracy and interference with an election officer.

A press release from Attorney General Kris Mayes is here.  The indictment itself (part of the press release) is here.  From Maricopa County Superior Court records: the case number is CR2023-008495.

Arraignment is scheduled for 12/21/2023

Guessing that Kelli Ward and the other 2020 fake electors were hoping that election-denying would get lost in the hubbub.

My guess: Not so much.

Other news:

...The U.S. House expelled Rep. George Santos (R-NY) by an overwhelming margin this week.  However, Arizona's representatives in Congress weren't exactly unanimous in the desire to expel the oft-indicted member.

From the vote:

All Democratic members from AZ voted to expel Santos, but four GOP members from AZ voted to protect criminality -

Crane (AZ2), Biggs (AZ5), Gosar (AZ9), and Lesko (AZ8).

Not surprising: Biggs and Gosar are relentlessly partisan bigots and Crane is their ideological saddle partner.

Surprising:  Lesko.  I figured that if there was a fourth AZGOPer to vote to protect Santos, it would be David Schweikert.  He's got ethical issues of his own, thought he would vote to help one of his own.

I was wrong.

...Arizona Supreme Court Justice Bill Montgomery (R-Dougie) recused himself from a case involving Planned Parenthood, a group that he's demonized in the past.

From AZ Mirror, written by Gloria Rebecca Gomez, dated 11/30 -

Anti-abortion AZ Supreme Court Justice recuses self from abortion case

An Arizona Supreme Court judge who once accused Planned Parenthood of committing genocide has agreed to recuse himself from a case involving the organization that will determine the future legality of abortion in the state. 

In October, Planned Parenthood Arizona called for Justice Bill Montgomery to step away from the case after the resurfacing of a 2017 Facebook post in which he said its national counterpart was responsible for the “greatest generational genocide known to man.” The organization, which runs four of the state’s nine abortion clinics and is the main litigant in the case, argued that Montgomery’s vehement opposition to it threatens to jeopardize its right to a fair and impartial trial. 

There are many amicus briefs filed for this one.

It's scheduled to be heard by the AZ supes on 12/12.

..And in sad news,  Arizona icon Sandra Day O'Connor, the first woman on the U.S. Supreme Court, has passed away at age 93

From AZ Mirror, written by Ashley Murray, dated 12/1 -

Sandra Day O’Connor, who made history as the first woman on the Supreme Court, dies at 93

The first woman to serve on the nation’s highest court is dead at 93.

Sandra Day O’Connor, a groundbreaking justice on the U.S. Supreme Court, died Friday in Phoenix, of complications related to advanced dementia, probably Alzheimer’s, and a respiratory illness, according to an announcement from the court.

President Ronald Reagan nominated O’Connor in 1981, and she was confirmed by the full Senate, 99-0, in September of that year

I didn't always agree with her, but always thought she was a decent human being.

My deepest condolences go out to her family and friends.

McCarthy out as speaker

Time for a mea culpa - not that I liked McCarthy, but I did predict that he would survive the first vote to depose him because the person leading it, Matt Gaetz, was so universally reviled by his colleagues..

I was wrong.

Oh, Gaetz' colleagues in the House still can't stand him, but they voted to depose McCarthy anyway.

From USA Today -

Kevin McCarthy ousted from House speakership after Republican rebellion: What you missed

Republican Kevin McCarthy’s deal with hardline House conservatives that handed him the speaker’s gavel in January unraveled on Tuesday as those same right-wing rebels, joined by Democrats, shoved him out of the seat.

McCarthy’s 269-day reign as speaker was ended by a 216-210 vote, a move that has no marker in modern history and paralyzes Congress for the time being.

The rebellion, led by conservative hardliner Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., has roiled the House in chaos. The move to oust McCarthy – known as a motion to vacate – had the support of a handful of hard-right lawmakers who have expressed anger at McCarthy for working with Democrats to avert a government shutdown.  

The House vote is here.

Two AZ Republicans were among those who to depose McCarthy.

On this vote, a "yea" is a vote against McCarthy while a "nay" is a vote to support his tenure as speaker.

Shutdown delayed; McCarthy on the clock

The MSM likes to say a shutdown has been "averted," but in reality, Congress just kicked the can down the road for 45 days.

From AP --

Government shutdown averted with little time to spare as Biden signs funding before midnight

The threat of a federal government shutdown suddenly lifted late Saturday as President Joe Biden signed a temporary funding bill to keep agencies open with little time to spare after Congress rushed to approve the bipartisan deal.

The package drops aid to Ukraine, a White House priority opposed by a growing number of GOP lawmakers, but increases federal disaster assistance by $16 billion, meeting Biden’s full request. The bill funds government until Nov. 17.

[snip]

The outcome ends, for now, the threat of a shutdown, but the reprieve may be short-lived. Congress will again need to fund the government in coming weeks risking a crisis as views are hardening, particularly among the right-flank lawmakers whose demands were ultimately swept aside this time in favor of a more bipartisan approach.

Thanksgiving will be on November 23 this year; this funding will expire just before that.  So we'll going through this again during the run up to that holiday.

Of course,  Kevin McCarthy may not be Speaker of the House at that point.

From BBC (UK) -

Hardline Republicans seek to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy

A hardline Republican says he will seek to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week, after he pushed through a last-minute spending bill with support from the opposition Democrats.

Mr McCarthy submitted the bill - aimed at averting a government shutdown - in defiance of the right of his party.

They had already vowed to topple him if he tried to overcome their opposition with Democratic support.

Hardline Republicans in both houses of Congress voted against the motion.

[snip]

On Sunday, Rep Matt Gaetz vowed to oust Mr McCarthy, telling the CNN that House Republicans needed "trustworthy" leadership.

"I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week," said Mr Gaetz, long a vocal critic of the Californian congressman. "I think we need to move on with new leadership that can be trustworthy."

I think that McCarthy will survive the initial threat to his speakership, if only because Gaetz is so profoundly and personally unpopular.

Plus, instead of voting for Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, the Rs will try to select a speaker from their caucus.

And though he may be a lousy human being and a worse public servant, the least bad R may be the one that they're intent on deposing.

The Senate vote on the measure is here.  The only surprise in it is that a certain Senator from Arizona didn't vote against the measure because it didn't contain enough money for hedge fund managers.

The House vote on the measure is here.  No surprises here. Arizona Republicans Biggs, Crane, Lesko, Schweikert, and, of course, Paul Gosar voted against it; all other members from AZ voted for it.

Insurrection Redux: Andy Biggs wants Cheeto's followers to get violent in response to his criminal indictments

The insurrection of January 6,2021 in response to Cheeto losing the 2020 election failed so Andy Biggs wants the next one to be more so.

Basically, Plan A didn't work for him and the other trumpkins, so his Plan B is to execute Plan A again, just with more guns and violence.

From Twitter -

So maybe Biggs is announcing his candidacy to become a capo in the Trump crime family.

Of course, he may just end up as Cheeto's cellmate.

Guessing that he would consider either one to be a promotion from his gig in Congress.

Cheeto makes history, and not in a good way: A former POTUS indicted!

From CNN (they have many articles on the topic; this quote is just from the first) -

The latest on the federal indictment of Trump in the documents probe

Trump's attorney confirms former president faces 7-count indictment

Donald Trump's attorney Jim Trusty confirmed Thursday night that the former president has been charged with seven counts – and revealed that the charges “break out from an Espionage Act charge.”

"It does have some language in it that suggests what the seven charges would be. Not 100% clear that all of those are separate charges, but they basically break out from an Espionage Act charge," he told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.

As could be expected, trumpkins didn't react well to the news.

From Google -

From Twitter -

From Newsweek -

Trump has maintained his innocence, often calling the DOJ probe a "hoax" and a form of "election interference." Several of the former president's political allies also condemned the news of his indictment over Twitter, including Ohio Representative Jim Jordan, who tweeted that it was a "Sad day for America."

.

.

.

"Democrats must literally shake with sweats when they see amazing packed out Trump 

rallies and overwhelming winning poll numbers week after week," said Georgia 

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who also shared screenshots of Trump's 

reaction on Truth Social. "They must awake in the night with panic at the thoughts of us 

winning in 2024."

Greene also wrote in length about the accusations against Biden's family, whom 

House Republicans have accused of an alleged bribery scheme based off an unclassified 

FBI forum shown to lawmakers on Thursday. Florida Representative Matt Gaetz also 

noted the form, tweeting, "Imagine being naive enough to believe that the Biden Bribe 

evidence and Trump indictment happening the same day was a coincidence."

.

.

.

Conservative political pundit Charlie Kirk demanded that Trump's opponents 

in the 2024 GOP primary take action and "show solidarity" with the 

former president, or risk being made "part of the opposition."

Of course, with Cheeto, the grift never stops.

From The Hill -

Trump immediately fundraises after saying he was indicted in documents probe

Former President Trump on Thursday swiftly moved toward fundraising efforts after claiming he’s been indicted in connection with the Justice Department’s investigation into his handling of classified documents. 

“We are watching our Republic DIE before our very eyes. The Biden-appointed Special Counsel has INDICTED me in yet another witch hunt regarding documents that I had the RIGHT to declassify as President of the United States,” Trump wrote in an email message asking supporters to donate.

Throwing bombs is sexier than actually governing...just ask the shameless bomb throwers

Gotta wonder if certain folks realize that the debt ceiling deal, while bad, is spoken well of when it's so thoroughly opposed by those who hate America.

From KJZZ, written by Kirsten Dorman -

Congressman Andy Biggs says debt ceiling deal is an 'abomination'

Congress is considering an agreement to avoid a government default and raise the nation’s debt ceiling.

Both President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have said it’s a compromise that includes GOP demands, like cuts in spending. But Arizona Congressman Andy Biggs said the proposal is an “abomination.”

“I had no idea that we would see a plan as ephemeral and malodorous as this plan,” Biggs said. “I’m gonna vote ‘no.’ I urge my colleagues to vote ‘no.’”

Biggs didn't confine his spouting off to reporters' mics, either.

Social media served as an outlet for his bile.  From Twitter -

The bile-spewing wasn't limited to members of Congress.

While he hasn't yet weighed in on the topic, I expect that Biggs' saddle partner, Paul Gosar, will oppose the debt ceiling deal.

He may just be waiting for Vlad to make his pronouncement on the deal.

Gotta love taxpayer-funded propaganda sessions

Even though the Arizona Legislature is on vacation until next month, there will still be scads of BS spewed at the state capitol next week.

This time, it will be about spewing anti-Covid response BS.

On Thursday and Friday next week, an informal committee will meet, with infamous pandemic deniers such as state legislators Rep. Janae Shamp, Sen. TJ Shope, and Rep. Steve Montenegro and Congresscritters Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs, and Eli Crane on it.

The committee will go by the (relatively) innocuous-sounding name of "Novel Coronavirus Southwestern Intergovernmental Committee."

The spewers-in-chief will listen to "testimony" from a veritable rogues' gallery.

First up (at least, he's first on the agenda):

Dr. Peter McCullough.  When I Googled his name, this came up (emphasis added by me) -

Next up: Dr. Lionel Lee, a Kari Lake supporter, and Dr. George Fareed, someone who's testified to the US Senate in support of giving Hydroxychloroquine to Covid patients.

Then:  Aaron Siri, an anti-mask lawyer.

Closing the first day's "testimony": Kurtis Bay, someone who blames (behind a paywall) the FDA for his wife's death from Covid.

The second day starts off with McCullough again.

Next up: Dr. Richard Urso, someone who has notably lied about Covid boosters.

Then: Dr. Pierre Kory, known for promoting Ivermectin as a treatment for Covid.

Next to speak: Dr. Lela Lewis, a religiously devout doctor who is the head of an anti-Covid vaccine group.

Last up: Anne Teixeira.  Can't find much about her.  I'm not sure, but she seems to be a Phoenix-area speech-language pathologist, which wouldn't qualify her to pontificate on Covid

Except in front of a committee like this one.

Cheeto indicted! Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

Actually, it probably wouldn't happen to a nicer one, either. 

From CNN -

Donald Trump indicted by Manhattan grand jury on more than 30 counts related to business fraud

Donald Trump faces more than 30 counts related to business fraud in an indictment from a Manhattan grand jury, according to two sources familiar with the case – the first time in American history that a current or former president has faced criminal charges.

The indictment has been filed under seal and will be announced in the coming days. The charges are not publicly known at this time. Trump will likely be arraigned in court early next week, according to his defense attorney, Joe Tacopina.

My question is this:  Will he do a perp walk before the arraignment?

Don't worry about our Cheeto, though - his acolytes, including some based in AZ, rushed to defend/protect him.  From NBC -

Trump allies erupt in fury over former president's indictment

Donald Trump’s most fervent Capitol Hill allies erupted in fury Thursday night as news of his indictment rocked the country. They rushed to his defense and blasted New York County District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s prosecution of the GOP presidential front-runner as a political witch hunt designed to influence the 2024 election.

“Outrageous,” tweeted Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, who is using his roles as chairman of the Judiciary and Weaponization of the Federal Government committees to investigate Bragg’s work.

Certain folks from Arizona wanted to be sure that they weren't left out of the pro-Cheeto babble.  They took to Twitter.

Andy Biggs, joining David Schweikert, with his acts being considered by the House Ethics Committee

From KJZZ, written by Ron Dungan -

House Jan. 6 panel recommends ethics investigation for Rep. Biggs

The House Jan. 6 committee has urged the Justice Department to bring criminal charges against former President Donald Trump for the Capitol insurrection.

It also recommended ethics investigations for a handful of lawmakers, including Arizona’s Andy Biggs.

The committee issued subpoenas against Republican leader Kevin McCarthy and three other GOP lawmakers — all of whom refused to comply.

At least Schweikert's violations fell under the heading of "conventionally corrupt."

Not sure what heading covers aiding and abetting treason.

Time for some 2024 speculation

Yes, the 2022 election is barely in the books and the inevitable lawsuit has been filed but not resolved, but 2024 races have already started.

First, a few caveats:

1. No actual humans were spoken to during the production of this post.  This is purely about me throwing ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks.

2. Any names/people mentioned here are folks who I think may look at running for a particular office but that doesn't mean that I think that all will actually run for that office.

3. Anyone who currently holds an office will be presumed to retain that office, if they actually run for it.  Some will be vulnerable and will lose their offices.

US President:

The 2020 nominees, Joe Biden and Cheeto, are making noises about running (actually, Cheeto has already announced his candidacy).  However, I don't believe that either will actually run in 2024.  They'll both be *old*.  Right now, both are making noises about doing so because of Biden's desire to not to already be seen as a lame duck POTUS and Cheeto's desire to not be seen as incarcerated.

And his ego.  Cheeto's vanity is boundless.  For him, the presidency is less about public service and more about self-aggrandizement. And profit.

US Senate seat from Arizona:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat is up for election, and her decision to change her registration to Independent opens up the Democratic primary in a big way,

The Republican primary was already going to be wide open but her move may make it wilder.

Doug Ducey, the current governor in AZ, has long been rumored to be eyeing Sinema's seat.

Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General in AZ, may have lost the R Senate primary in 2022 and is term-limited as AG, but he doesn't seem to be going away - he's running radio ads catering to rural voters.  He may simply be burning off his budget, but I think that he's keeping his options open.

Paul Gosar and/or Andy Biggs, both are batshit crazy members of Congress.  Assuming they avoid going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

Kelli Ward, currently the batshit crazy chair of the AZGOP.  Assuming she avoids going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

An unnamed vassal of a rich guy who's looking to by a Senate seat.  Think: 2024 version of Blake Masters/Peter Thiel.

Other election-denying/anti-democracy Rs may also looking at the seat.

With Sinema's change, the R primary transitions from being the political equivalent of a pro wrestling battle royal to being an outright bar brawl.

If Sinema appears on the ballot, it will have the effect of siphoning votes away from the Democratic nominee, so if the R nominee isn't a batshit crazy ones, they'll win in a walkover; if the R voters pick a crazy nominee in their primary, the race will closer, maybe close enough for the D nominee to win.  For the record, while I consider Ducey and Brnovich to be poor public servants and simply lousy human beings, they're not batshit crazy.

The Democratic primary will be less wide open than the Republican primary but it will be more open than it would have been before Sinema left.

Ruben Gallego, current member of Congress, is the very early favorite here because he was already going to challenge Sinema in the primary when she was still a D.

Greg Stanton, current member of Congress and former mayor of Phoenix, has already made noises critical of Sinema.  From Twitter (pic taken yesterday) -

Other Ds who may be looking at the race -

Kate Gallego, current mayor of Phoenix.  Termed out and will not be in office in 2024.

Regina Romero, current mayor of Tucson.

Raquel Teran, currently in the AZ State Senate and the chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.  In AZ, it's almost a tradition that one doesn't become a state party chair without running for high office.

Kathy Hoffman. currently the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction.  She lost her re-election bid in 2022.

US Congress -

I expect that most of the current officeholders here will retain their office, but three of the Rs will be especially vulnerable - Juan Ciscomani in southern AZ and Eli Crane in Northern AZ because they will be first termers and David Schweikert because he's ethically challenged.

Also, if Ruben Gallego and/or Stanton run for the Senate, it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 (or more) of the others listed as potentially running for Senate to look at those seats instead.

Arizona Corporation Commission -

Three seats will be on the ballot.  They're currently held by D Anna Tovar and Rs Lea Marquez Peterson and Jim O'Connor.  While I expect that all of them will run for reelection I cannot and will not guess at what the primary fields will look like here.

Well, that didn't take long - Paul Gosar supplants Andy Biggs as the most embarrassing member of Congress from Arizona

It seems like just yesterday that I wrote that Biggs was back to embarrassing AZ.

Oh wait, it *was* yesterday. :)

It seems that Gosar couldn't allow Biggs to hog all of the notoriety.

From The Hill -

Gosar tweets, then deletes, support for Trump’s Constitution termination statement

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) tweeted and then deleted a post on Wednesday supporting former President Trump’s call for terminating the election rules in the Constitution. 

“I support and agree with the former President. Unprecedented fraud requires unprecedented cure,” he said, accompanied by a screenshot of Trump’s post on Truth Social. 

It isn't easy for someone to make Kevin McCarthy seem like a sympathetic figure. It turns out that AZ is home to one such someone.

Actually, we have two of those people, Paul Gosar being the second.  

But this isn't about him.

From CNN -

Arizona Republican announces run for House speaker, complicating McCarthy’s path

House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy’s bid for the speakership grew more complicated on Tuesday after a hard-right Republican announced his bid for the gavel next month, a move that could set off a messy floor fight and leave their party without a candidate who can win the 218 votes needed to become speaker.

Despite losing the House GOP Conference’s nomination to be speaker last month, Rep. Andy Biggs, the hard-right Arizona Republican and one-time leader of the House Freedom Caucus, announced he will be a candidate for the speakership when the full House votes on January 3.

“I’m running for Speaker to break the establishment,” Biggs wrote on Twitter. “Kevin McCarthy was created by, elevated by, and maintained by the establishment.”

Andy Biggs, putting AZ into the news again.

And again, not in a good way.

What's the magic number? UPDATED

How many innocent lives have to be sacrificed because somebody with a gun feel fear or anger?

When will the apologists have their bloodlust sated?

From WISN -

Six people killed in mass shooting at 4th of July parade in Highland Park

Police confirm that six people were killed during a mass shooting at a 4th of July parade in Highland Park, Illinois. Highland Park is a Chicago suburb about 60 miles south of Milwaukee.

Approximately 2 dozen people were rushed to the hospital with serious injuries. Highland Park Police are still calling this an "active incident" as law enforcement agencies are searching for the suspect. The suspect is described as a white male, between 18-20 years old with long dark hair. A rifle was recovered from the scene

From CNN -

[UPDATED later on 7/4/2022]

From ABC -

Highland Park mass shooting live updates: 6 killed at 4th of July parade, person of interest apprehended

A 22-year-old person of interest has been apprehended in connection with a mass shooting Monday at a Fourth of July parade in the Chicago suburb of Highland Park, Illinois, police said.

Six people were killed and about 24 others were seriously hurt in the shooting, according to officials.

Police said they apprehended Robert "Bobby" Crimo III during a vehicular pursuit Monday evening after an hours-long manhunt.

I'm not going to post his pic yet as at this point, he's only a "person of interest" (one can go to the ABC story for that), but I will say one thing -

Neck tats are almost never a positive character reference.

[/end UPDATE]

As expected, Arizona electeds and wannabes tend to be tone deaf -

To be fair, the last two pre-date the mass shooting in Illinois.