Election postmortem

Yes, I realize that this benefits from 20/20 hindsight.

1. Joe Biden should have stepped well before any Democratic primary/caucus.  The eventual nominee (who I will presume would have been Vice President Kamala Harris) would have benefited from getting their campaign and messaging in order *before* the general election period.  As it was, the campaign seemed rushed.

2. Speaking of messaging, abortion rights wasn't the wrong message, but making it the *only* message was.  America is a complicated place that faces many issues and ceding economic and immigration issues to Republican-generated lies was a mistake.  Ruben Gallego was the only Democrat to win a high-profile race in AZ, and it helped him to define himself before his opponent, Kari Lake, started spreading lies about him (of course, it also helped that everyone who meets her intensely dislikes her).  She did lie, a LOT, but the message was already out.

Going forward, that might be something for Democratic candidates (and their consultants) to keep in mind.

3. None of this changes the most disheartening fact - there are literally millions of Americans who would rather support, and vote for, an utterly vile human being, so long as the vile person is male, and his opponent is female.

Even if they're being lied to, and know it.  So long as the lies are what to hear, they'll choose to believe the lies,

I don't have a "should" to address this.

Statewide Ballot questions

There were 13 statewide questions in total on this year's ballot in AZ; 11 were referred by the Republicans in the legislature, two were referred by the people.

Eight failed - seven legislative questions, and one from the people

There were five election related questions; all failed, including the one intended to remove retention elections for judges.

It failed spectacularly, with more than 75% of voters voting it down.

One that passed: Proposition 139, amending the state's constitution to protect access to abortion which passed by more than 550,000 votes/21 percentage points.

It's not ALL bad news: most school district-related ballot questions passed

...At least in Maricopa County.  I didn't look at the other counties in AZ.

There were 40 school district questions here; 31 passed.  That's more than 75%.

Note: All listed vote totals are current; the totals will change as late ballots are counted.  However, none of them look close enough for the outcome to change.

The State Senate membership may be tied*

* = There's a rather big caveat: If current results hold up.  A couple of the districts that currently favor the Democratic candidate are very close.  One of them is verrrryyyyy close.

As results currently stand, the Senate would be tied 15-15.

However, two of the districts may change -

As things stand right now, the House will have 32 Republican members and 28 Democratic ones, though a couple of those races are close enough to change.

However, the biggest upset may have been in the Senate - former legislator Vince Leach lost his race in LD17 to Democrat John McLean.

Election Results 2024 - 3rd numbers

First and foremost, I want to thanks each and every person who helped to run a polling site or to count ballots.  I may not like some of the results, but I know this -

Democracy doesn't work without you.

Going forward, certain races will be dropped off this list as the outcome in that race seems given.  The vote totals may change but the outcome probably won't.

Election Results 2024 - 2nd numbers

 

Election Results 2024 - 1st numbers

Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.

Need your daily dose of hypocrisy? You'll get it when an election denier runs for office.

Early ballots are in the mail, so I did some research/due diligence on the races that I know nothing about.

For brevity's sake, I'll refer to them as "school board" races.

For the At-Large seat in the Phoenix Union HSD, incumbent Aaron Marquez, Francisco Pastor-Rivera, Aden Ramirez, and Debbie Cross are in a four-way race for two seats.

At least in a shallow search, none of them raise any red flags.

Note: Marquez is also a candidate for State Representative in LD5.  If he wins both races, that's not a problem - state legislators can also serve on school boards.

This race will be difficult - after Marquez, I don't know who to vote for.

In the Balsz ESD race, incumbent Vic Grace, incumbent Gail Knight, Lezley Shepherd, and Jacob George are in a four-way race for three seats.

Note: I looked for websites for the first three candidates.  Couldn't find any.

Grace and Knight are already board members and George seems well-qualified.

Shepherd, though, is a problem.

She's been quoted many times, in outlets ranging from the NY Times to the AZ Mirror, all denying the result of the 2020 election.

From an NY Times article about Arizona's "fraudit", one that actually found more votes for Biden and fewer for Cheeto, dated 9/24/2021 (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

In a statement, Mr. Trump on Friday said the review had “uncovered significant and undeniable evidence of FRAUD! Until we know how and why this happened, our Elections will never be secure.”

Many of his fans appeared persuaded.

“I have no doubt now: That election was rigged,” said Lezley Shepherd, 56, one of hundreds of Arizona voters who flocked to the State Capitol on Friday

At least she's not a one trick pony: she hates gay people, too.  And she's not shy about expressing her opinion.  

From a Phoenix New Times article about the Republican quest to criminalize drag shows, written by Elias Weiss, dated 2/4/2023 (emphasis added by me) -

All of those who spoke in favor of the bill [CM: SB1028 in 2023] referenced the Bible. One of them, Leslie Shepherd, asserted that “the LGBTQ movement is using [drag] as a shield to allow inappropriate behavior toward children.”

Well, one positive thing can be said about her candidacy: she's made the choice easy.  There's no way on Earth she gets my vote.

At this point, my only question is that when the election doesn't go her way, will she refute the results and try to deliberate and vote as a board member?

Bottom line: I consider most campaigns for elected office to be little more than extended group job interviews, and you don't hire the person who says that if the hiring process doesn't go their way, it's because the process is rigged.

Gotta love coincidences

And I believe that this actually *is* a coincidence and not me being snarky.

Both former legislator Adam Driggs and his spouse, Leonore Driggs are on the ballot this year and, for different reasons, neither has competition.

Note: My referring to them by their first names and not their titles is not a sign of disrespect.  Both are known as "Judge Driggs" and that would get confusing.  Quickly :) .

Of course, Adam is a judge with Maricopa County Superior Court and subject to a retention election where voters can only vote to retain or not to retain him as a judge.  No opponent.

Leonore is the incumbent Justice of the Peace in the Arcadia Biltmore justice precinct in Phoenix.  There's no opponent on the ballot, nor is there a write-in candidate in the race.

I'll be voting for both of them - I've never heard anything bad about Leonore Driggs, and the Judicial Performance Review Commission has determined that Adam Driggs meets standards.

Yes, AZ is a very large state (~114K square miles) but in terms of politics here, it's much like a small town.

Primary results are in

There were a few upsets, but not many; most of the "upsets" were in the gap between candidates, not in the final results.

Notes:

The results for federal and legislative races are from the Arizona Secretary of State.

The results for Maricopa County races (designated with an "MC") are from the Maricopa County Recorder's office.

All results are preliminary; vote totals may change, but in most races, I don't expect the final order to change.

Lastly, there were other primaries and/or other candidates not included here.

Candidate Office Party Percent

Kari Lake US Sen R 55.23

Mark Lamb US Sen R 39.41

Amish Shah CD1 D 23.93

Andrei Cherny CD1 D 21.41

Marlene Galan-Woods CD1 D 20.89

Conor O'Callaghan CD1 D 18.44

Andrew Horne CD1 D 12.27

Kurt Kroemer CD1 D 3.08

Yassamin Ansari CD3 D 46

Raquel Teran CD3 D 42.9

Juan Ciscomani CD6 R 59.4

Kathleen Winn CD6 R 40.6

Abe Hamadeh CD8 R 29.83

Blake Masters CD8 R 25.32

Ben Toma CD8 R 21.23

Trent Franks CD8 R 16.54

Anthony Kern CD8 R 4.74

Mark Finchem LD1 Sen R 47.1

Ken Bennett LD1 Sen R 34.3

Wendy Rogers LD7 Sen R 54.91

David Cook LD7 Sen R 45.09

Walt Blackman LD7 Rep R 27.44

David Marshall LD7 Rep R 24.53

Steven Slaton LD7 Rep R 14.1

Janeen Connolly LD8 Rep D 34

Brian Garcia LD8 Rep D 33.91

Juan Mendez LD8 Rep D 32.08

Vince Leach LD17 Sen R 51.63

Justine Wadsack LD17 Sen R 48.37

Eva Diaz LD22 Sen D 76.1

Leezah Sun LD22 Sen D 23.9

Analise Ortiz LD24 Sen D 86.3

Mario Garcia LD24 Sen D 13.7

Tyler Kamp MC Sheriff D 54.87

Russ Skinner MC Sheriff D 45.13

Jerry Sheridan MC Sheriff R 51.28

Frank Milstead MC Sheriff R 27.82

Mike Crawford MC Sheriff R 20.9

Mark Stewart MC SD1 R 65.24

Jack Sellers MC SD1 R 34.76

Thomas Galvin MC SD2 R 57.16

Michelle Ugenti-Rita MC SD2 R 42.84

Rachel Mitchell MC Attorney R 57.58

Gina Godbehere MC Attorney R 42.42

Justin Heap MC Recorder R 42.45

Stephen Richer MC Recorder R 35.76

Don Hiatt MC Recorder R 21.78

Not sure what it means, but the incumbent Maricopa County Recorder, Stephen Richer, was unseated in the primary.

Former state legislator Michelle Ugenti-Rita got thumped in her quest for a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

Incumbent MCBOS member Jack Sellers lost quest for re-election.  Not sure what happened here.

Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp will face off for Maricopa County Sheriff in November.

Democrat Analise Ortiz thoroughly trounced faux Democrat Mario Garcia in the race for LD24 Senator.

Democrat Eva Diaz easily beat disgraced former legislator Leezah Sun in the race for LD22 Senator

Republican Vince Leach defeated controversial incumbent Justine Wadsack in the primary for LD17 Senator.

In the one real upset, and the one race where late counted votes may change the outcome, termed out incumbent Senator Juan Mendez was foiled in his quest to switch chambers in the LD8 Democratic primary.  In those races, the top two vote-getters are considered to be the victors, but he's currently in third.

In the race for LD7 State Representative, Republican Steven Slaton, who faced accusations that he inflated his military service, finished a distant third.

In the race for LD7 State Senator, antisemite Republican Wendy Rogers looks to have turned back a challenge from David Cook.

In the race for LD1 State Senator, former legislator Mark Finchem has deposed incumbent Ken Bennett.  Both are well known election deniers, but Bennett may be the less insane of the two.

In CD8, Abe Hamadeh has won the R primary there.  Since that district is heavily Republican, we'll end up with another lousy human being in Arizona's delegation to Congress.  The best thing about the result is that Peter Theil (Blake Masters' sugar daddy) may stop trying to buy a federal office from AZ.

In CD1,  former legislator Amish Shah is ahead in the race the challenge incumbent David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged) in November.

And lastly, Kari Lake has emerged from the R primary for US Senator, earning the chance to face off against Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in November.

His best chance is if Lake keeps being herself.

Primary ballots are in!

I received it on 7/5.

There aren't many races on the Democratic side.  As you can see. :)

The big one on my ballot is the six-way race in CD1 for a chance to take on Republican David Schweikert in the general election.

Being a former Republican isn't a dealbreaker for me (the Republican Party has gotten so extreme [and anti-society] that any member of the GOP who's even within sniffing distance of being a decent human being has left it.)

Being a former supporter of Jan Brewer isn't quite a dealbreaker, either.  Much closer, though.  She was a profoundly lousy governor.

Being someone who voted for Cheeto *is* a dealbreaker, though.  He was and is a profoundly lousy human being and anyone who wants to be a member of Congress should be smart enough to see that.  And decent enough to be bothered by that.

Having said all of that, I will vote for a candidate in the primary, Kurt Kroemer.

On the other hand, I fully expect that whichever candidate emerges victorious from the primary will run as R-lite in the general.

Bottom line: we don't need a second iteration of Kyrsten Sinema in D.C. and I won't hold my nose when I vote, ever again.  I won't vote for Schweikert, but I may skip the race entirely.

Also, I expect that the candidate and certain party officers to be simply aghast to see an R-lite candidate lose to an R.  Yet again.

In the LD8 primary for state representative, I'll be voting for Juan Mendez and Brian Garcia.  

I've known Mendez for years and supported him in previous runs for office and he's done a good job in those offices.  I'm happy to vote for him again.

As for Garcia, I've never met him, but while I'm not a fan of endorsements, he's been endorsed by someone I respect greatly.

In the race for Arizona Corporation Commission, I have no opinion.  Three people, Joshua Polacheck, Ylenia Aguilar, and Jonathon Hill are on the ballot.

In the race for Maricopa County Sheriff, working for Joe Arpaio is a dealbreaker...in the primary.  Like Cheeto, Arpaio was and is a profoundly lousy human being.

As such, I'll be voting for Tyler Kamp.

If he makes it though the primary, though, Russ Skinner will get my vote in the general.  The Republican candidates are all running on a platform of "I'm more like Joe than thou."

I expect my elected officials like county sheriff and county attorney to be seen and not heard.  By that, I mean that I should know nothing about them.

The former sheriff, Paul Penzone, was quiet.

When Arpaio was in office, the old joke was that the most dangerous spot to be in AZ was any place between him and a TV camera.

The best thing for Tim Stringham in his quest to be county recorder might be for Stephen Richer to lose in the Republican primary

Richer is the current Maricopa County Recorder.

I spent some time watching the R debate for Maricopa County Recorder, sponsored by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission and the Arizona Media Association.

Richer seems, well, "competent."

Justin Heap, a current state legislator, was simply a conspiracy theory-spouting hot mess.

However, the other R primary candidate, Donald Hiatt, made Heap seem polished and well-rounded.

During his opening statement, at the 6:04 mark, he conflated the Ten Commandments with the U.S. Constitution.

And things went downhill from there.

In his defense, he did frequently point out that he is not a politician.

It showed.

If R voters like vagueness, they'll vote for Heap or Hiatt.

Stringham is probably hoping they do.

To realistically quote Maricopa County Republican: "Wah! The rules don't apply to us! Wah!"

From KJZZ, written by Wayne Schutsky -

Maricopa County Republicans sue elections officials to add LD29 candidate to ballot

Republicans in Maricopa County are suing election officials in an attempt to place a new legislative candidate on the July primary ballot to replace a candidate who withdrew from the race.

State law allows local political parties to pick a new candidate to replace withdrawn candidates, a process that played out earlier this month when Democrats in Legislative District 8 chose Lauren Kuby to replace Rep. Melody Hernandez, who dropped out of the district’s state Senate race.

Republicans in the West Valley’s Legislative District 29 held a similar vote on May 16, picking James Taylor to replace Rep. Austin Smith, who withdrew from the Republican primary for the district’s two seats in the Arizona House of Representatives.

But, unlike with LD8 Democrats, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office rejected Taylor’s nomination. The Secretary of State’s Office said the law requires parties to name those replacements before ballots are printed and cited a May 13 printing deadline set by Maricopa County, the body administering the LD29 primary election. 

[snip]

But the spokeswoman previously confirmed that the county set a May 13 deadline in order to meet its printing deadlines.

The law in question is ARS 16-343.

Note: I live in LD8 and was notified of the Democratic emergency election on 5/9, which was held (I believe; as I'm no longer a PC, I didn't pay close attention to it) on 5/11.

Dear Democratic primary voters in LD8: Please write in Lauren Kuby for state senate

Failed candidate David Alger fronted a legal challenge to the one Democratic candidate for state senate in LD8, Rep. Melody Hernandez.

It was successful, in that she withdrew from the race, leaving the Democratic ballot in that district with no candidate for the state senate seat on the ballot.

One person has stepped into the gap. - Lauren Kuby, a former member of the Tempe City Council and long-time community activist.

I don't expect everyone to agree with me on everything (they should though, as I'm always right,  Just ask me. :) )

However, I do expect that all of my elected officials to be decent and honorable human beings, and Lauren falls squarely into that category. 

As she's running as a write-in candidate, she'll need at least 405 people to write her name on their primary ballots in order for her to appear on the general election ballot.

And she easily deserves that.

Note: I've linked to her campaign website on the sidebar to the right.  If you can donate to her campaign, please do so.

Q1 fundraising totals are in

This post only covers significant federal candidates (IMO) who submitted nominating sigs to the Arizona Secretary of State.  Some may be knocked off of a ballot due to legal challenges.

The most interesting thing was not one of the money entries, but one of the signature totals - Kari Lake secured precisely 0 of her signatures on paper.  

I admit, I don't know much about R primaries or candidates, but someone who exhibits an aversion to going door-to-door or who can't inspire volunteers to do so probably isn't going to do well. 

All money totals obtained from page 2 of the candidates' Q1 2024 filings

Maybe it's time to expand Arizona's "Sore Loser" law

First up, a quick summary of that law.  From ARS 16-312 -

F. Except as provided in section 16-343, subsection E, a candidate may not file pursuant to this section if any of the following applies:

1. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate ran in the immediately preceding primary election and failed to be nominated to the office sought in the current election.

2. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for the immediately preceding primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-322.

3. For a candidate in the primary election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for the current primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-322, withdrew from the primary election after a challenge was filed or was removed from or otherwise determined by court order to be ineligible for the primary election ballot.

4. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for nomination other than by primary for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-341.

From the Arizona Secretary of State's website -

According to Maricopa Superior Court records, David Alger is suing current LD8 State Representative Melody Hernandez, current Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, current Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, and the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors (note: I live in LD8, hence my interest).

The case is scheduled for a status conference on 4/16 and Alger's challenge is scheduled to be heard on 4/18.

Election challenges are as old as elections themselves, and so are failed candidates.

In 2020, Alger was a write in candidate in the R primary in then LD24 -

He was trounced in the general election that year -

In 2018, he was on the ballot, both for the R primary and the general election.

He was the only candidate in the R primary and was thoroughly defeated in the general.

Maybe it's time to expand Arizona's to not allow failed candidates to legally challenge other candidates.

Of course, the judge is this case may find his legal filings entertaining - if that judge likes filings that can be summed up with the word "Wahhh!"

Edited on 4/15 to add:

Challenges to legislative and statewide candidates are heard  in Maricopa County Superior Court.  Maricopa County is home of the state capital.  Challenges to municipal- and county-specific candidates will be heard locally.

/End edit

Maricopa County primary candidates for 2024

Note: this is based only on signatures submitted and could (and probably will) be changed by legal challenges.

From Maricopa County's list of primary candidates -

Note2: The "Signatures Needed" column info is from Maricopa County here.

All countywide seats have challengers (which is a good thing for democracy) and only one race will be decided in the primary as all candidates for that office are from one party (County Treasurer with only two Republican candidates)

The 2026 election cycle has already started; some potential candidates have already filed statements of interest for offices up for election then.  Countywide offices up for election will be this year so the statements of interest for 2026 are only for constable and JP races.  So far.

Note3: Just because a candidate expresses "interest" in a particular race doesn't mean that they will be on a ballot.

Cheeto learns a little Latin

I'm sure he and his attorneys said an Ave Maria* before they proposed this one.

* = for you folks who don't have a Catholic upbringing, "Ave Maria" translates to "Hail Mary."

A Hail Mary is a desperation American football passing play used at the end of a half by the team that is behind and almost never works (at least, when it does work, it's big news in the sports world.)  

It got its nickname because it was said when that the quarterback heaved up the pass, he would say a Hail Mary prayer, hoping that the pass would be caught by one of his teammates

From USA Today -

Donald Trump's lawyer in Georgia: election lies are protected speech

Donald Trump’s lawyer argued Thursday the former president can’t be prosecuted in Georgia for trying to steal the 2020 election because his alleged conduct was political speech that must be protected under the First Amendment − even speech that was lies.

“Falsity alone is not enough,” Trump's lawyer, Steven Sadow, said. “Clearly, being president at the time, dealing with elections and campaigning, calling into question what had occurred – that’s the height of political speech.”

So, they're positing that speech intended to rationalize overthrowing the Constitution is protected by that same Constitution?

Fasten your seatbelts: 2023 was an interesting year but just a prelude to the bumpy ride that will be 2024

I know that it's early and later writers will do summaries that are both longer and less Maricopa County-centric.

Having said that, there are a number of developments in the political world here in AZ in 2023 that will have effects in 2024.

1. It started in 2022 (actually, it may have started before that when it became obvious that she was a lousy US Senator, but it become official in 2022), but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's  change from the Democratic Party to Unaffiliated has set up a 2024 election race that involves Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (I'm not predicting that she will win her primary, but as of now, I'm presuming that she will be the nominee) and, perhaps, Sinema herself (if she mounts a third party run).

From CNBC, dated 12/9/2022 -

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party to become

 

independent

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has switched parties to become an independent, complicating the Democrats’ narrow control of the U.S. Senate.

Sinema said in a tweet Friday that she was declaring her “independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent.”

It's a statewide race, but since Maricopa County has ~60% of the state's population and registered voters, the race is considered to be Maricopa-centric.

2. The decision by Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to not seek re-election in 2024.  Her decision has set off a massive primary battle for north/northwestern Maricopa County district.  Not every R running for the seat actually lives in the district, but that's not required per the US Constitution and since this is a safe R seat, no R candidate will pass this one by.

I'm actually a little surprised that former Phoenix city council member Sal DiCiccio and perennial candidate Rodney Glassman haven't jumped into the race.

On the other hand, it's early yet. :)

From AP, dated 10/17/2023 -

US Rep. Debbie Lesko won’t seek re-election in Arizona next year

U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko announced Tuesday that she will not run for office next year.

The Arizona Republican has decided to spend more time with family.

In a statement, Lesko, 64, said traveling every month to Washington, D.C. has been difficult and that “D.C. is broken.”

None of the Rs running to replace will "unbreak" D.C.

3. The announcement by Democrat Paul Penzone that not only will he not seek re-election as Maricopa County Sheriff in 2024, he'll resign from the job in January.

From Arizona's Family, written by their digital news staff and Micaela Marshall, dated 10/2/2023 -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

As off this writing, only three committees are open for a run at the office - one by Penzone himself, one by Joe Arpaio, the man Penzone defeated in 2016 (but that committee is very old and may not be intended for a run in 2024) and one by Jerry Sheridan, a former Arpaio henchman/deputy.  However, he formed his committee well before Penzone's announcement.  He was going to run regardless of everything else.

4. The first three items listed are "horse race" matters and will receive scads of attention from the MSM, if only because they're easy to report on.

However, while not as easy to report on, the next issue may be more significant.  It's about how races are run. I've listed it here at #4, but it may end up being the most significant issue in 2024.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/26/2023 -

98% of Arizonans will have new elections officials in 2024, report finds

Arizona has lost nearly all of its experienced election officials and 98% of the state will have new officials running elections in 2024 than ran the 2020 elections, a new report found. 

The Grand Canyon State has been center stage for election misinformation since 2020, with efforts such as the Arizona Senate Republicans’ “audit” of the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake’s continuing efforts to overturn her 2022 loss in the race for governor.

The state has also seen threats of violence towards election officials and those who help administer elections. Five recent cases from the U.S. Department of Justice were all from Arizona that included individuals who called for election officials to be killed and in some areas, such as in Yavapai County, one official ended up needing security from the local sheriff at their home.

This isn't just an Arizona problem, it's a national one.  

From The Union of Concerned Scientists' The Equation, dated 10/18/2023 -

2024 Election Workers Need Better Protection from Harassment

Most election workers are probably like my late mother-in-law. Mary Holmes spent many of her senior years volunteering at the polls in Cambridge, MA. She considered this work a part of her civic duty, just as she had decades earlier when she volunteered as a school traffic guard.  

She never voiced a moment of fear, either from motorists who respected her waving of arms and her reflective vest, or from voters, many of whom hurriedly hustled in and out of the ballot box on their way to work or on the way home from work to dinner. I cannot recall anything specific she ever said about this work. It was just what you did in a community. Her many years of service spoke for themselves about her pride in playing a seemingly small role in democracy.

We’ve learned more in recent years about how large a role she actually played. The mobs of January 6, 2021 and the malevolent harassment of election workers and officials all over the nation by deniers of the 2020 defeat of former President Donald Trump have left this slice of democracy on an unprecedented precipice. According to a report released last month by Issue One, a nonpartisan democracy think tank, roughly 40 percent of chief local elections officials in 11 western states have left their posts since the 2020 election.

The Issue One report referenced in both articles is here.