From Inside Elections -
Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens
Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.
But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.
Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.
But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.
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There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.
I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job. Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.
Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.
CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).
Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.
Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.
Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.
I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.
