Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe, "pondering" a 2014 run for governor

From the Phoenix Business Journal, written by Mike Sunnucks -

Former Tempe mayor Hugh Hallman is looking at running for Arizona governor in 2014.

 

The Republican said on his website today he is pondering a run.

 

“Over the next few months, I will be traveling the state of Arizona to speak with and listen to people from all walks of life about what’s really important to them in their state government, and how we can address our priorities successfully,” Hallman said. “At that time, I will make a final decision about pursuing elected office. I have one particular elected office very clearly in mind — the office of governor of Arizona.”

If he runs and gains the R nomination next year, he could suffer the embarrassment of losing Tempe, his hometown, in the general election.  As mayor of Tempe, he kept a lid on the anti-constituent craziness that permeates internal Republican politics these days, but to get through the Republican primary, he'll need to cut loose with the nihilist rhetoric of the Rs' social and fiscal agendas.

That will cost him votes in Tempe. 

Lots of votes.

Sunnucks' piece went on to list a few other rumored candidates -

On the Democratic side:  Dr. Richard Carmona, former US Surgeon General and 2012 Democratic nominee for US Senate; Fred Duval, businessman, author, and former President of the Arizona Board of Regents; and Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix.

On the Republican side:  State Treasurer Doug Ducey and AZ Secretary of State Ken Bennett.


Possible additions/subtractions to that list:

Greg Stanton has stated that he is not running for governor in 2014 (that doesn't mean he won't change his mind at some point, but 2014 really might be too early for him to go for the governor's job.)

State Representative Chad Campbell, the Democratic leader in the AZ House, is also eyeing a run.  Like the others mentioned here, he may end up not running for governor (right now, they're all "pondering"), but he is probably more likely to run than Carmona is, at this point.

Felecia Rotellini, the impressive Democratic nominee for AZ Attorney General in 2010, is being talked up as a potential candidate.  I think that she is more likely to mount another run at AG, but it's still early - anything could happen.

Scott Smith, the Republican mayor of Mesa.  Has had success during his administration (Mesa is no longer the political, social, economic, intellectual, and cultural laughingstock of Arizona) and is young enough (mid to late 50s) that he could wait until 2018.  On the other hand, the wheels could fall off in Mesa at any time (or, more likely, the Arizona legislature could slash Mesa's tires at any time), so he may be best served by running in 2014.

Steve Pierce, former president of the AZ state senate (he won reelection to the Senate, but lost the R caucus vote for a return to the senate presidency) and rancher in Yavapai County, is rumored to be eyeing the race, but a candidate who isn't from Maricopa or Pima counties has an uphill path.  Add in the fact that while former legislators *have* made it to the 9th Floor (Jan Brewer, Jane Hull), they didn't get there directly, going through other offices first, and he may be least likely to run of anyone mentioned in this post.

Gary Pierce (no relation to Steve), member and former chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, is also rumored to be interested in the governor's office.  Those rumors received a boost when fellow R Bob Stump was elected as chair of the ACC, presumably to allow Gary Pierce the time to explore a run.


In other 2014 news, maybe we should rename the office of the Arizona Attorney General as the office of Arizona Eternal Optimist:

Tom Horne has formed a reelection committee.

Good God, this is going to be fun.  :)

My how the mighty have fallen: JD Hayworth reduced to talk radio in Fargo, ND

Life has been less than kind to former Congressman JD Hayworth.

He parlayed an undistiguished career as a TV weatherman and sportscasters into six terms in Congress, where he became a fixture on the lists of both the dumbest members and the most corrupt.

In 2006, he was unseated by Harry Mitchell, and the professional descent began.

He moved into talk radio, starting in AZ and then moving to NYC, an upward move definitely, but the last upward move since Arizona voters kicked him to the electoral curb.

After flaming out in NYC, he took his act to San Francisco - not NYC, but still a significant market.

Unfortunately, things haven't worked out there.

From the Arizona Republic's AZ/DC blog, written by Dan Nowicki -

Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., has lost the weekday radio talk show he had hosted for three months on KSFO-AM in San Francisco. But Hayworth, a broadcaster who served six terms in Congress, is still on the air on a new station in Fargo, N.D., called 101.9 Talk FM.

For comparison purposes:

Fargo proper has ~105K residents, and "metropolitan" Fargo has slightly less than 220K; in Arizona, the city of Scottsdale alone has ~220K residents.

ND has one Congressional district (the entire state) with ~680K residents; the 5th (out of eight, soon to be nine) Congressional district in AZ, the one that Hayworth (allegedly) represented, has ~640K.

Not saying that North Dakota is a small place and a step down (to be fair, many North Dakotans love their state the same way that many Arizonans love theirs), but as far as career paths go, SF to ND doesn't qualify as an upward trajectory.

AZ-Sen starting line: Some candidates have a head start

While any candidate who jumps into for the US Senate will be sure to start raising money, some potential candidates already have a head start.  They already have federal campaign committees formed, and even if the committees are for some other office, the cash can be transferred to a Senate run.

The most recent "cash on hand" reported for the federal campaign committees of selected possible candidates -

Republicans -

JD Hayworth - $148,224.47

Jeff Flake - $627,851.61

John Shadegg - $154.99

David Schweikert - $16,308.33

Ruth McClung - $107,649.87 (included because she has so much cash on hand)

Jonathan Paton - $12,389.26

Ben Quayle - $7607.04


Democrats -

Ed Pastor - $1,391,936.29

Gabrielle Giffords - $285,501.24

Raul Grijalva - $30,621.77

Ann Kirkpatrick - $13,896.86


Just for giggles -

Joe Arpaio - $2,829,160.00

That number is worthy of giggles because while it dwarfs every other potential candidate's cash on hand, it doesn't matter - it's for his county sheriff candidacy and cannot be transferred to a federal committee.


While there has been a little internet chatter over a possible Pastor candidacy and his well-stocked campaign warchest and some of the other potential candidates have little or no cash for a federal campaign, once a legit candidate enters the race he or she will be able to raise money quickly.

Of course, they'll have to.  :)

The Republican Senate Debate

Earlier this evening, the three candidates for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate appeared at a forum televised on Phoenix channel 3 (KTVK). (Video of tonight's forum, as well as last week's Democratic forum, can be found here)

I wasn't going to write about it as I figure the R bloggers in AZ will do that (figure Sonoran Alliance will annoint Hayworth the hands-down winner, Political Mafioso will do the same for McCain, and somebody will declare Deakin to be the "future of the Republican Party" or some such tripe), but I'm sitting through one of the ugliest innings that I have ever seen as the DBacks mail it in against the Padres,

As such, I have the time for a few comments.

First, the summary:

Candidate 1: You support amnesty/earmarks/big government!  I'm the *real* conservative! 

Candidate 2: I'm rubber and you're glue!  Everything you say bounces off me and sticks to you!

Candidate 3: At least you both agree with me on that.


Seriously, this was less a candidate forum and more a remake of an 80s slasher flick - they were cutting at each other from the word go.  Hayworth and McCain spent no time telling what they would do to serve Arizona and its residents.  Neither did Deakin, but he was almost an afterthought as McCain and Hayworth spent the hour launching haymakers at each other.

McCain and Hayworth made it obvious from the beginning that participating in the forum wasn't one of the ir priorities. 

Frequently, the answers they gave had very little or nothing to do with the questions asked and a lot to do with criticizing the other.

Hayworth dropped names, citing endorsements from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the Phoenix Law Enforcement Association, and other nativist individuals and organizations.

McCain didn't mention people so much as run down the list of big corporations that he will aid if he is re-elected.  (trolling for campaign cash?)

Deakin tended vacillate between "stop Obama" and "restore constitutional government!"  He may have dropped some names, but by the time the third question was asked I was tuning out the responses.  I kept an eye on the screen waiting/hoping that one of the candidates would jump across the lectern trying to throttle one of the others.

It didn't happen, but I kept hoping for a popcorn moment. :))

Anyway, the big winner(s) of Friday's debate had to be the Democratic candidates. 

They were far from perfect during their debate, but they focused on the issues facing the state and the country while avoiding personal attacks.

Whichever one is the eventual nominee can point to their performance and compare it to the Republican nominee's. 

And no matter who the eventual nominees are, the D will come off as the candidate who is more professional, mature, and concerned for Arizona.

McCain moving farther right as the campaign wears on

To follow up on his joining JD Hayworth on the nativist train, now McCain is partying with noted anti-Semites.

Pics courtesy Blue Virginia -

The highlight here is the name of one of the "hosts," Fred Malek.

Many years ago, Malek was an operative in the Nixon-era White House. One of his more eye-opening raisons d'etre while there was to count (and purge?) Jewish employees of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The appearance with Malek isn't much of a surprise - Malek was a big part of McCain's unsuccessful bid for the Presidency. Still, this move, drinking for dollars with noted anti-Semites like Malek (as well as Governor Bob "slavery wasn't part of the Confederacy" McDonnell), only serves to remind voters that McCain has far more in common with J.D. "worship Nazi Henry Ford" Hayworth than he has to separate himself from Hayworth.

Washington Post coverage of the fundraiser (taking place in just a few hours) here.

Later...

JD Hayworth, channelling his inner John Belushi

I had resolved not to pay much attention to the brouhaha among the Republicans over the Senate seat. Whether their eventual nominee is John McCain or JD Hayworth, Rodney Glassman is a far better choice to represent Arizona in the United States Senate.

However, this one is too good to pass up.

:)

Last week, Hayworth spoke to a group of Republicans, and started expounding on history. Specifically, he claimed that the U.S. never declared war against Nazi Germany.





Now, perhaps I am being too hard on good ol' JD. He's hardly the first famous person to get WW2 history wrong.



When John Belushi spoke about Germany "bombing Pearl Harbor" and when JD spoke about the US never declaring war on Nazi Germany, neither one was citing facts.

The difference being that when Belushi spoke, was just acting. Hayworth actually believes what he spouted.

Of course, they do have one thing in common - whether we are talking about Belushi's classic bit in Animal House or Hayworth's pontifications, hearty laughter is the result.

The McCain campaign may be learning the same lesson that Harry Mitchell learned in 2006 when he defeated Hayworth - the best way to beat JD is to let him be himself.

BTW - to anyone who may be thinking that Hayworth was correct - after an address by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Congress declared war on Japan on December 8, 1941, which was followed by Germany and Italy declaring war on the U.S., which was then followed by the U.S. declaring war on Germany and Italy on December 11, 1941.

Dark Clouds, Silver Linings, and Lessons

The results of Tuesday's elections across the country offer a silver lining of hope in what has long been considered to be a dark year for Democrats. And nowhere is that silver lining brighter than in Arizona.

To whit:

- Dark cloud: Libertarian (dressed in Republican clothing) Rand Paul wins the R nomination for Senate in Kentucky.

- Silver lining: He's already imploding, coming out against the Civil Rights Act...before backing off (sort of). Guess he was against the Act before he was for it.

- Silver lining2 - Paul received 206,960 votes in the R primary; Daniel Mongiardo, the 2nd place Democrat in the D primary, received 225,159. There are almost 600K more Ds than Rs in Kentucky. They are Ds of a conservative bent (hence the two Rs currently representing KY in the U.S. Senate) but they won't put up with the public embarrassment that Paul is threatening to become.

- Lesson: The most "whatever" candidate in a party's primary may not be that party's *best* candidate. Not making a prediction here (yet), but despite the Tea Party's glee over Paul's nomination, winning the nomination isn't the same as winning the office. This race is far from over. The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in KY, Jack Conway, is in a solid position entering the general election campaign.


- (Not so) Dark cloud: Democrat Mark Critz won the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. The win keeps the Ds' perfect record in head-to-head special elections held since the 2008 election intact and allows them to retain the seat held by the late Jack Murtha for the better part of four decades.

- Silver lining: Critz may have shown the way to beat the Rs' standard campaign platform of running against D.C., Nancy Pelosi, and those durn "liberal" Democrats, and it's the most basic lesson in politics - all politics is local. The R in the race, Tim Burns, ran as a generic national Republican/Club for Growth candidate, campaigning against Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Critz stumped the western PA district and talked about jobs.

Critz won.

- Lesson: No matter if the pundits think that the trends in a given election cycle dramatically favor one party over another (as they think that 2010 favors Rs over Ds), any single race is usually won by the candidate who runs the better, more district-focused, campaign.


- Dark cloud: Republicans all over Arizona are grasping for the chance to go Congress.

- Silver lining: Their primaries have become cattle call, "I'm more conservative than thou" slugfests.

- - In the race for U.S. Senate, former radio gabber JD Hayworth is looking to unseat fellow Republican John McCain, pulling the heretofore not-exactly-liberal McCain into Hayworth's (and the Tea Party's) nativist, anti-government ideological territory.

All the while, Democrat Rodney Glassman is turning in his sigs, opening his Phoenix headquarters, and reaching out to *all* Arizona voters, not just the nativists.

- - In CD5, Republican perennial candidates Susan Bitter Smith and David Schweikert have been joined by electoral newcomers Jim Ward and Chris Salvino in their race to unseat Democratic incumbent and local icon Harry Mitchell. The Rs are running anti-immigrant/anti-Obama campaigns (Salvino's signs even start with "Stop Obama", not his name). Mitchell is working for his district, reining in Congressional pay, and protecting America's veterans.

-- In the CD3 battle royal to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg, there are at least a dozen open committees on the Republican side (Moak, Waring, Winkler, and Quayle have already filed their signatures) and they're all running as the "real" conservative in the race. They've been whipsawing between toeing the nativist line and nuzzling the corporate teat.

All the while, Jon Hulburd, the only Democrat in the race already in general election mode, talking to voters in the district and honing his message, starting with his number one issue, jobs.

-- In CD8, at least three Republicans, including SB1070 and payday loan industry supporter Jonathan Paton, are duking it out for a chance to face incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson). Paton, the presumed R nominee, has been spending time in Phoenix, far from his district, holding a $1000 per person fundraiser at an Arizona Diamondbacks game; Giffords countered with an event held much closer to home - Hi Corbett Field in Tucson at a Tucson Toros game.

- Lesson: We'll see in November. I might be mistaken about where this is all leading, but the Ds are doing things right while their erstwhile R challengers are trying to stick political knives in each other's backs and making the rounds of the usual suspects, hoping to schmooze them into opening their wallets.

Later...

Glassman makes it official - the race for the Senate is on

On Tuesday, Rodney Glassman ended months of speculation (OK, it wasn't really "speculation" when he has an exploratory committee open and has been raising gobs of money :) ) when he resigned from the Tucson City Council to focus on his race for the U.S. Senate.

From the AZ Daily Star -

Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman has resigned to run for the U.S. Senate. Glassman hopes to win the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican Sen. John McCain in the November general election.

Arizona Capitol Times coverage here.

Glassman has been receiving support from all over the state as community leaders and average Arizonans alike have come to realize that John McCain no longer represents Arizona in D.C., just himself and lobbyists:

“Having served in the House of Representatives for four terms, it would be nice to finally have an Arizona Senator that is willing to work with our entire Congressional delegation regardless of party affiliation,” said Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.). “Rodney has a unique desire and ability to work with everyone and provide everyone with equal set at the table.”

“Arizona needs someone representing us who has the interests of our state, not Washington, D.C. bureaucrats, in mind. We need someone approachable and involved in Arizona,” said Arizona Sen. Paula Aboud (D-Tucson). “We need someone who doesn't need a GPS to find his way around Arizona. Rodney Glassman knows his way around our state and he's working for us.”

"It is refreshing to see an elected official who is enthusiastic about trying new approaches to solve old problems. And, Rodney really means it when he says he wants to take a bipartisan approach to policy-making. His track record proves it. Isn't it about time we saw that from Arizona senators?" said Mesa City Councilman Dennis Kavanaugh.

From Rodney himself, via email -

Today, I am pleased to announce my decision to run against the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. It is official.

I spent several months traveling throughout Arizona listening to you. Across Arizona, I heard a single message: Arizona needs a U.S. Senator who works for Arizona’s future.
We need someone who lives and works in Arizona. Someone who loves Arizona. Someone who is more concerned with creating jobs in Arizona than clinging to his own job in Washington, D.C.

My campaign team and my supporters understand that beating a lifelong U.S. Senator will not be easy. We are running because we believe in you. Across Arizona, you have made bold declarations that you want Arizona to have a better future. I am answering that call.

My Promise to You:

As Vice Mayor, my door was always open. I have been accessible. I even printed my mobile telephone number in the paper on several occasions. I make this promise to you today: When you elect me to the U.S. Senate, I will continue to be open and accessible to every Arizonan who needs my help.

I believe in this campaign because I believe in you.

Your Friend,

Rodney Glassman

P.S. Please join our campaign today for Arizona's future, and share our website with your friends at www.rodneyglassman.com.


As pleased as I am to see Glassman's official entry into the race, as a writer I'm going to find the spitting match between John McCain and JD Hayworth a lot more fun to cover.

To whit: Recently, Grant Woods, a McCain advisor and former AZ Attorney General was quoted in a Newsweek Magazine article as saying "[t]o have just a caricature of the opportunistic, bombastic politician throwing grenades at him at this stage of his career is really a sad commentary. Someone needs to drive a wooden stake through this guy's heart."

Hayworth says that last bit about the wooden stake is a threat to his life and has demanded an apology from Woods.

Most people understand that the "stake" comment was a metaphor (political careers, like vampires, aren't dead until you've driven a stake through their hearts), but it's an election year, so a little self-righteous posturing is par for the course.

Woods responds in this AZ/DC blog entry from AZCentral.com with one of the best lines of the election cycle so far -

Woods laughed about Hayworth's overwrought reaction.

"I am a Dracula fan. I do think J.D. sucks, but he's no Dracula," Woods quipped to AZ/DC.

"J.D. sucks, but he's no Dracula."

Classic. :)


Later...

Did Fox News break some actual news?*

*- It has to be "actual" news, since FNC could *never* be wrong...right? LOL







Who knew that good ol' JD was part of the "T" part of the LGBT community?

OK kids. Can you say "stalking horse"?

The headline of the article says it all...

From AZCentral.com -

Hayworth announces against McCain, Simcox drops out

Former Arizona Congressman J.D. Hayworth on Monday officially announced his much-talked-about Republican primary challenge to incumbent GOP Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

Hayworth, a well-known critic of illegal immigration, was joined at the hourlong event in northeast Phoenix by political allies such as Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, State Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Gray, R-Mesa, and state Sen. Ron Gould, R-Lake Havasu City.

A surprise came with the endorsement from Chris Simcox, the founder of the border-watch group Minuteman Civil Defense Corps who on Monday withdrew from the Senate race and threw his support to Hayworth.

The definition of "stalking horse," from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary -

...a candidate put forward to divide the opposition or to conceal someone's real candidacy

Now, not being someone who travels in nativist circles, I can't state with any certainty that Mr. Simcox was a willing or even knowing part of the "stalking horse" part of his campaign. However, that wouldn't have an impact on the Hayworth camp's use of Simcox' candidacy as a stalking horse.

The timing of today's announcements by Simcox (withdrawing from the race and immediately endorsing Hayworth) lead me to believe that Simcox was a knowing participant in Hayworth's use of his candidacy to gauge the viability of a run at McCain from the far right.

BTW - Am I the only one who looks at the list of people at Hayworth's announcement, those listed as "allies" (Arpaio, Gray, Gould, and Simcox) and wondered "With friends like these...?"

Later...

Word of the day: Irony

A quick hit, because this was just too good to pass up on...

From AZCentral.com's AZ/DC blog -

Sen. John McCain this week launched his first re-election radio ads of the 2010 race, declaring that he is "Arizona's last line of defense" in the battle against President Barack Obama's liberal agenda.

{snip}

Not lost on any observers is the fact that McCain's paid political announcements inject his point of view onto the airwaves of conservative Phoenix radio station KFYI
(550 AM), where former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., attacks him on a seemingly constant basis. Hayworth, who hosts an afternoon drive-time program, repeatedly has said he is considering a challenge to McCain in the Aug. 24 Republican primary.

So who wins the irony war here? McCain because he is using his putative challenger's own soapbox to get out his message? Or Hayworth because his potential target is providing revenue to his radio show and by doing so, creating even more buzz about the possible race than there had be previously?

This stuff won't help either one in the general election - few Independents and fewer Democrats listen to Hayworth's gabbing, and fewer still are actually influenced by it. Of course, at this point both are focused on just winning the R primary.

Rodney Glassman for Senate. He'll work for the entire state, not just the teabaggers.

McCain, Hayworth camps taking swipes at each other

Posted without much comment, mostly because the sight of Republicans tearing strips off of each other is highly entertaining on its own merits. :)

From AZCentral.com -

A former Arizona attorney general filed a federal complaint Tuesday seeking to stop KFYI radio-talk show host J.D. Hayworth from using his microphone to promote a potential primary race against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

The complaint filed by Grant Woods with the Federal Election Commission claims Hayworth, a former Republican congressman, cannot use his radio show to further his latest political aspirations. Woods estimates Clear Channel Communications, which broadcasts Hayworth's program, is effectively providing air time to Hayworth that would cost $540,000 each week to rebut in radio ads.

{snip, to include my favorite line in the article, emphasis mine}

"He's [McCain's] more distraught about the Cardinals' (loss Monday night) than a potential Hayworth candidacy," Woods said.

*SMACK* goes the McCain campaign. :)

Rodney Glassman getting closer to a Senate seat

...A nativist winger knocking off McCain in the Republican primary would immediately make Democrat Rodney Glassman a serious threat to win next year's race for the U.S. Senate, if not the outright favorite.

According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll -

Senator John McCain’s future in the U.S. Senate may be a little less assured than previously thought.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters in Arizona finds the longtime incumbent in a virtual tie with potential challenger J.D. Hayworth. McCain earns 45% of the vote, while Hayworth picks up 43%.

Rasmussen's toplines are here.

A third candidate, Chris Simcox (founder of the anti-immigrant vigilante group The Minutemen) is polling at 4%. That would seem to help Hayworth, as it is probably safe to presume that in the event he drops out, his supporters would gravitate to Hayworth, but Simcox' 4% is within the margin of error. In other words, he could help Hayworth...or he could have no support at all.

While the comments on the AZ Republic's website and in the Republican blogosphere are somewhat jubilant at the thought of the nativist Hayworth unseating McCain, they should note -

The poll surveyed likely voters in the Republican primary, not in the general election.

John McCain has proven all but untouchable in general elections thus far (though Tucson City Councilman Glassman could do well enough to make McCain actually work this time around), Hayworth is anything but untouchable in a general election, as Tempe's Harry Mitchell proved in 2006.

To the GOP's "more conservative than thou" types -


Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.


Yeah, I know it's a cliche, but it works here. :)

Is Shadegg channelling his inner Hayworth?

We'll know for certain if Shadegg announces his retirement from Congress in order to start a career in talk radio (not that Hayworth had any real choice about the timing of his retirement from Congress :)) )...

From the Phoenix New Times -

Congressman John Shadegg's theatrics on the floor of the House of Representatives are becoming almost legendary. By legendary, we mean borderline insane.

Just over a week ago, the congressman brought a 7-month-old baby named Maddie to the floor with him to illustrate his outrage over the healthcare bill.

{snip}

While addressing members of Congress about the Justice Department's decision to try suspected 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheik Mohammed, and his Al Qaeda cronies in New York City, Shadegg had this to say:

"I saw the mayor of New York today. He said 'we're tough; we can do it.' Well mayor, how are you going to feel when it's your daughter that's kidnapped at school by a terrorist? How are you going to feel when it's some clerk -- some innocent clerk of the court -- whose daughter or son is kidnapped? Or the jailer's little brother or little sister?"

The passage in the Congressional Record can be found here (first column, second complete paragraph).

Video below -

Not the exactly the epitome of breaking news

From the Phoenix Business Journal -

Conservative radio commentator and former Scottsdale congressman J.D. Hayworth is consider a run against U.S. Sen. John McCain in next year’s Republican primary.

There has been speculation/expectations regarding this for months, both here and elsewhere. The Business Journal is something of a johnny-come-lately here.

I truly don't believe that Hayworth would have a serious shot against McCain, but I'm not a Republican insider (so that's not exactly the epitome of breaking news, either :) ). As such, I can't offer any definitive insights into the minds of Republican primary voters. Based on what I've seen though, the only way that McCain loses the primary next year is if he isn't *in* the primary.

However, there has been a quiet rumor, and I don't have details, that a Democrat with a higher profile than Stuart Starky is considering a run for U.S. Senate next year. That seems to indicate that some folks with better sources inside the GOP (or at least within the McCain camp) believe that McCain may end up retiring, creating a race for an open and poachable seat.

If the Reps nominate somebody like Hayworth, somebody who appeals only to their shrinking base, not the growing number of independents in AZ, it will give a major boost to the Democratic nominee, whoever he or she may be.

Hell, Starky may have been steamrolled by McCain in 2004, but even he'd have a fighting chance against somebody like Hayworth.

Later...

Republican leadership going after D17 Rep. Schapira

Apparently, the Republican leadership in the House objects to the work that Rep. David Schapira (D-LD17) has been doing while the lege isn't in session.

Or maybe they just object to looking lazy by comparison.

First, Republican Speaker Kirk Adams announced the formation of his own committee to look into the state's tuition tax credit program and school tuition organizations. The program is rife with abuses, as highlighted by the East Valley Tribune's award-winning "Rigged Privilege" investigative series.

Then later in the day, House Appropriations chair John Kavanagh (R-Fountain Hills) went on JD Hayworth's talk show on KFYI and spent an entire hour bashing Rep. Schapira for talking to an international group of educators yesterday. (No link yet, will provide if one becomes available.)

An entire hour.

Yep, they're officially worried about David. Welcome to the big leagues, Representative Schapira.

Well, on the first item, Adams' committee, as one Capitol observer put it, "it's about time that Adams showed some leadership on this."

As I put it, "it isn't leadership if you're following, not leading."

Schapira and the Democrats were on the burgeoning scandal of STO abuse weeks ago (and David Safier at Blog for Arizona and Jen at Mindless Mumblings of a Martyr Mom were on this months ago); Adams is just trying to steal some thunder and maybe get in the way of any real work.

That's not leadership.

Oh yeah, and neither is stacking the committee membership in such a way as to ensure that they won't find much, if anything, wrong with the tuition tax credit program.

From the EV Trib piece on today's announcement -

Adams has assigned Rep. Rick Murphy, R-Glendale, as chairman of the committee. Other members include: Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert; Debbie Lesko, R-Glendale; Jack Brown, D-St. Johns; and Tom Chabin, D-Flagstaff.

What's wrong with that list?

Let's see -

All of them are members of the House Ways and Means Committee. Not a single one is a member of the Education Committee. An interesting omission for a panel looking at an education-related matter.

There are two Democrats on Adams' panel. However, Rep. Jack Brown, the longest-serving member of the lege and highly respected for his knowledge and wisdom, is also the most conservative Democrat in the House. He won't have any interest in making waves on this panel.

Of course, that is presuming that Brown can even attend to the committee's work. The three Republicans on the panel are all Maricopa County residents and are mere minutes away from the Capitol; the two Democrats live 150 miles (Chabin) and 170 miles (Brown) away. Guess which members will be able to be more involved in the committee?

As for the second item, the relentless bashing by Kavanagh and Hayworth?

Ummm...well, to be rather blunt, these aren't two guys noted for their profound insights on education systems, American or international.

On the other hand, they are known for having insights into who might become a future electoral opponent. And for signalling that insight by issuing a pre-emptive attack.

Later...

"Bush league" behavior isn't confined to the minor leagues

...and this post is *not* about George W. Bush...

Perhaps inspired by the commencement of baseball's spring training season (reporting dates here), I've been struck (not for the first time, nor am I the first to make this observation), that politics is has a structure that is very similar to professional baseball.

School committee and city council seats and the like are analogous to A-level minor ball. For many, if not most, of the holders of these offices, these are entry level positions where they spend most of their time learning their professions.

Mayors and state legislators are politics' AA leagues. There are some entry-level participants, and a few are ready to make the jump to the bigs, but most have some experience but still need to hone their craft. Lower level statewide offices tend to fall into this category, too.

Higher-level statewide offices and most seats in the U.S. Congress are the equivalent of AAA. Most of the participants have major-league ready skills, but are in search of an opportunity to move up.

At the major league level are a few Congressfolks (Speakers, Majority and Minority Leaders and Whips, etc.), most U.S. Senators, and, of course, the President of the United States.

The categories are a little flexible, as politics is more about influence wielded than about the office occupied. For example, for the longest time, the most powerful elected official in Massachusetts wasn't the governor or one of the U.S. senators. Instead, the mayor of Boston was often held that distinction. Must have been something about controlling when the State House was plowed out during the winter. :)

Arizonans, Democrats and Republicans alike, should be grateful that Phil Gordon doesn't have the big stick of snow removal available to him. :))

All of which serves as a set up to this - while most political offices and office-holders are "minor league", with the colorful imagery that name can bring to mind, few are "bush league."

"Bush League", courtesy Princeton University - "a league of teams that do not belong to a major league (especially baseball)"

One of the common characteristics in both baseball and politics is that while players are learning the basic skills of their respective professions as they rise through the levels, they also learn the 'soft' skills, the behaviors that lead to long-term success at the next level.

Behaviors that have less to do with knowing how to hit curve balls or how to initiate a quorum call to block a bill, and more with acting like a professional.

The movie Bull Durham has a couple of good scenes about shower shoes and interview cliches that illustrates this phenomenon.


It looks like many Republicans, even putative "major leaguers," have forgotten that as much as anything else, professionalism influences how long someone stays in the big leagues.

Sometimes it's something as trivial as threatening to kill a fellow legislator's bills in a given session of the AZ lege because that legislator (a Dem, of course) dared to publicly and on the record, debunk the Reps' talking points about the state's budget crisis. (Hey guys - it's not Janet Napolitano's fault, no matter how much you want people to ignore the lege's creation of every budget) Still, the AZ lege is definitely a minor league, and that sort of behavior isn't exactly unheard of in the minors.

Some Republicans however, don't have that mitigating circumstance to fall back on.

This week, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) put together a web ad crowing about the solidarity of the House GOP in it's opposition to the economic stimulus package that President Obama signed into law today in Denver.

It was set to the song "Back in the Saddle" by Aerosmith.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the lyrics of the song, it's about a guy...ummm... "expressing his happiness" at getting back together with a favorite hooker and some of their ensuing activities.

Which, coincidentally, are the same things that the Reps in Congress have been doing to America for years.

It's pretty bush league to crow about screwing your employer.

The video had been posted on YouTube, but was later pulled down due to a copyright complaint from the band's management.

Copyright infringement for political gain is pretty bush league, too.

HuffingtonPost coverage here.

Cantor hasn't been having a good month - just last week, his office sent out an obscenity-laden anti-union (AFSCME to be specific) video (SF Chronicle). He defended it by saying it was a satire, but later apologized for it.

It's pretty bush league to attack your employers (yes, union workers are citizens, taxpayers, and voters) as profane thugs.

I'll be nice and ignore the fact that the employer of the wife of the stridently anti-bailout Cantor received millions of dollars from the bank bailout. (HuffingtonPost)

Piling on would be so bush league. :))

Of course, some of the bush league stuff is closer to home.

Both of Arizona's U.S. Senators, John McCain and Jon Kyl, are ignoring the President's visit to one of the state's areas that is most impacted by the collapse of the housing bubble.

They have "other plans."

Ignoring the needs of your constituents because the President isn't a member of your party is pretty bush league...oh wait. They were doing that even when fellow Rep George W. Bush was in the White House.

Never mind. :)

Anyway, not quite falling into the "bush league" category was former Congressman (and eternal blowhard) JD Hayworth's appearance on MSNBC yesterday on the show "Hardball with Chris Matthews."

It was more in the category of "faded player hanging around the independent leagues [i.e. - talk radio] pathetically trying for one more shot at glory."

He insisted that Republican policies of endless deregulation and tax cuts for the wealthy weren't the problem with the economy, it was Sen. Charles Schumer and George Soros.

I'm not making this up. Watch the video.

Anyway, it's hardly unheard of for players who don't want to fade quietly into retirement to sign on with an independent league to showcase/maintain their skills while seeking another chance at a season in the sun.

Rickey Henderson, one of the all-time great, perhaps the single greatest, leadoff hitters ever played in a number of indy leagues while waiting for one last call from a major league club. That call didn't come, but he was a first ballot electee to the Baseball Hall of Fame this year.

On the other hand, JD was and is no Rickey. About the only thing they have in common is their ability to talk a good game.

However, unlike JD, Henderson could actually *play*.

Of course, Hayworth's appearance may not have been a case of a "pathetic attempt to regain former glory".

It could have been a case of "the Republicans are scraping the bottom of the barrel of people who can spew their anti-average American BS with a straight face."


The take of Tedski at R-Cubed on this, with embedded video, here.

Later!

Best and worst bargains - 2008 elections

Edit on 12/8 to update County numbers, below...

Post-General Election campaign finance reports are in, and normally this would be the time to do a really geeky and dry post listing figures for contributions, expenditures, cash on hand, etc. However, since the election results are in, I'm going to do something a little different.

Still geeky and dry, but different. :))

Today's post will list the best bargains (based on lowest expenditures per vote for election victors) and the worst bargains (based on highest expenditures per vote for election losers.)

The expenditure figures taken from the cycle-to-date boxes of the campaigns' post-general reports; vote totals taken from the appropriate reporting authority, either the AZ Secretary of State or the Maricopa County Recorder.

Best Bargain - AZ Congressional races

Republican Trent Franks was easily the leader here, spending $400,019.59 to receive 200,914 votes, or $1.99/vote. Republican Jeff Flake was the second most frugal victor, spending $3.76/vote. By contrast, the victor who spent the *most* per vote was another Republican, John Shadegg. Shadegg spent $17.85/vote ($2,656,692.67 spent, 200914 votes received).

Worst Bargain - AZ Congressional races

Democrat Bob Lord, Shadegg's opponent in CD3, "won" this dubious distinction, spending $1,745,210.41 to receive 115,759 votes, for a $17.85/vote pace. The only losing candidate who spent at a pace that was even close to Lord's was Republican Tim Bee. Bee spent 13.25/vote in his failed campaign to unseat Gabrielle Giffords in CD8.

Giffords and Harry Mitchell (D-CD5) each spent more than $15/vote, but since they won their races (rather handily at that), the money spent was a good deal.

Note: Challengers Don Karg (R-CD4), Rebecca Schneider (D-CD6), and Joe Sweeney (R-CD7 [I think]) haven't filed post-general reports that I could find, but I doubt that any of them spent enough money to challenge Lord for the 'Worst Bargain' status.


The comparison of county campaigns was more difficult, because both major candidates for county attorney, Andrew Thomas and Tim Nelson, as well as supervisor candidates Fulton Brock, Joel Sinclaire, and Max Wilson haven't filed post-general reports yet. (Note: with Joel Sinclaire's passing, his committee has been suspended/terminated. I'm not sure if/when a final campaign finance report will be filed.)

Brock, Thomas, Nelson, and Wilson all have reports up on the County Recorder's website, and according to the time/date stamps on the forms, all reports were submitted on time.

However, I don't want it to be said that I'm not able to form conclusions based on incomplete information. :)))

Best Bargain - Maricopa County races

Right now, Don Stapley is the clear winner in this category, but that could change once his legal expenses are added in. At this point, however, the Republican incumbent spent $9933.45 to receive 164,381 votes, or $0.29/vote to retain his seat in SD2.

Note: Stapley was a little creative in filling out his report, neglecting to fill out the "cycle-to-date" column. The expenditure number listed in this post is a total of the "cycle-to-date" number from his pre-general report and the "current period" number from his post-general report.

Worst Bargain - Maricopa County races

Ed Hermes, the Democratic candidate in Supervisor District 1, "led" this category, spending $112,026.14 to garner 119,971 votes, for a $0.93/vote pace. While for the purposes of this post, this campaign qualifies as the "worst" bargain among the county races, I expect Ed to take the lessons of this cycle and apply them to another campaign, one that he may very well win.

Tim Nelson challenged for this one, spending over $438K in his unsuccessful campaign for County Attorney. However, while he spent nearly 4 times as much as Hermes, his countywide race garnered him more than 4 times the votes, dropping his dollars per vote number to $0.80.

One item of interest from Fulton Brock's post-general report were contributions from a couple in Oro Valley, which is in Pima County. The twosome share a name with some of the people involved in the Stapley indictment. On October 16, 2008, Jason and Kris Wolfswinkel each gave $390 (the maximum allowed individual contribution) to Brock's campaign.

Stapley's failure to report his involvement with some Wolfswinkel family businesses is at the heart of his legal travails.

Wouldn't it be sweet if Brock's name was added to the list of indicted Republicans? Yeah, I know it probably won't happen, but one has to wonder why some Pima County residents care enough about a Maricopa County supervisor's race to fork over the max contribution to his campaign.

Both of these could change once all reports are in, plus the numbers don't include the "independent" expenditures that benefitted Joe Arpaio and Andrew Thomas. However, they both won their races, no matter how unethically, so they don't qualify for "worst bargain" under the guidelines of this post.


I was going to do one of the comparisons for some of the ballot initiatives, but there were a couple of hurdles there - too many of the committees haven't filed reports, and in many cases, there are multiple committees in support/opposition of a given prop.


Comparison purposes -

To put some of these numbers in perspective, in 2004, then-Congressman JD Hayworth spent $7.58/vote to retain his seat. However, that was nearly 180 times the rate of his opponent, Elizabeth Rogers. She spent roughly $0.04 per vote.

Compare this to 2006, when both spent more per vote in their races. Hayworth spent $31.12/vote to lose to Harry Mitchell in CD5; Rogers spent $0.06/vote to win the Kyrene Justice of the Peace race.

OK, that's not really relevant to the rest of the post, but it should give pause to those who would support a speculated-upon Hayworth gubernortorial candidacy. It should also give hope to candidates like Rebecca Schneider and Marilyn Fox, who ran strong campaigns on limited budgets.

There is life after losing an election.

Let's see what happens in two years before considering them and others like them, to be electoral afterthoughts.

Other campaign and campaign finance news -

...According to the Secretary of State's website, the first official candidate committee for 2010 has been formed by Michelle Reagan, Republican State Representative from north Scottsdale. It's an exploratory committee and doesn't list the office that she is "exploring." My guess is State Senate, though Corporation Commission or State Treasurer are possibilities.

...Jim McAllister, an AZCentral.com Plugged In blogger, notes that victorious candidates Jim Lane (Scottsdale Mayor) and Lisa Borowsky (Scottsdale City Council) already have their hands out to developers, seeking contributions to retire their campaign debts.

Apparently, they don't read the news reports about indicted and convicted public officials.

...The AZ Republic has a story that current Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne will be forming a committee to explore a run for State Attorney General in 2010.

Ummm....yeah. Horne has spent most of two terms making the public education system in AZ one of the worst in the country, and now he wants us to set him loose on the legal system?

Later...

Short Attention Span Musing

From the "who says I don't pick on Democrats when they deserve it" file...

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) ignored his staff and spouted off about the fragrance of tourists visiting the Capitol.

From The Hill -

Reid’s comment came as he noted the long lines of tourists who come to visit the Capitol during the bitter cold of winter and sweltering heat of a Washington summer. By constructing the CVC, lawmakers hoped to provide a more comfortable and educational introduction to the Capitol with tighter security measures.

"Tourists line up in summer and winter," said Reid. "In the summertime, because of the high humidity and how hot it gets here, you could literally smell the tourists coming into the Capitol."

Like other high-profile Democratic senators before him (John Kerry, anyone?), Reid simply cannot tell a joke.

He *really* should have listened to his staff.

Of course, compared to Governor Ed Rendell's (D-Foot in Mouth Disease) gaffe, Reid was positively eloquent.

From AZCentral.com -

Rendell made the comment Tuesday at a meeting of the National Governors Association in Philadelphia that featured President-elect Barack Obama.

Rendell said Napolitano is "perfect for that job. Because for that job, you have to have no life. Janet has no family. Perfect. She can devote, literally, 19-20 hours a day to it."

He has since apologized (sort of) for his comment that disparaged Napolitano's single status, but the damage has been done. He has ticked off single people (and many married ones) all across the country.

...From the "PleasepleasepleasepleasePUHLEEZE" department...

There are some rumors going around that John McCain will face a primary challenge in 2010 from none other than everybody's favorite loudmouthed nativist, JD Hayworth (Paul Giblin at the EV Tribune).

The idea has AZ's rightwing blogosphere all breathlessly aflutter at the thought of their darling Hayworth taking on McCain, but like Tedski at R-Cubed, I don't think it will happen. McCain has earned respect from all over AZ (misplaced though I may think that respect may be, it does exist) while Hayworth doesn't have any respect from anybody outside of his own nativist wing of the Republican Party.

That demographic fits a slot on radio, not in the senior chamber of Congress.

On the other hand, if Hayworth does go for it, maybe we can talk Harry Mitchell into running for the Senate seat.

Just for the sheer joy of watching JD's head explode at the mere possiblity of losing to Mitchell yet again. :)

For the record, I don't think Mitchell would be even remotely interested in a Senate run, even if Hayworth does run. For that matter, if it looks like a pure ideologue such as Hayworth will end up as the Rep nominee, Democrats from all over AZ will be elbowing each other hard for a shot at the seat.

...And from the "can we root for both of them to lose" department...

From AP -

WASHINGTON (AP) — Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison on Thursday took the first step toward a run for governor, setting the stage for a contentious challenge in 2010 against fellow Republican Rick Perry, the longest-serving leader in state history.

Let's see...Rick Perry is best known for his perfectly-coiffed hair (Molly Ivins nicknamed him "Governor Goodhair") and Hutchinson is best known as a Bush cheerleader of Kyl-esque proportions.

Maybe Kinky Friedman can run again. He's not perfect, but he's more interesting than either of those two.

Later!

The John Sydney McCain Memorial Crappie Award

This week's award doesn't go to just one person - the organization known as the Arizona Republican Party, on behalf of some of its candidates in CD5, a radio talk show ranter, and some of its bloggers, earns this week's award.


Late last week, news broke that an employee of the Arizona Democratic Party (ADP) had attended a fundraiser for Republican CD5 candidate Laura Knaperek. (PolitickerAZ)

The ADP employee was spotted taking pictures of people attending the fundraiser and of the license plates of their vehicles.


Knaperek's campaign manager, Lauren Barnett, went on JD Hayworth's radio show to decry the move as "undemocratic" and "reprehensible".


[Not so coincidentally, this was the same JD Hayworth who lost in 2006 to the man Knaperek wants to face in November, Harry Mitchell. Oh, and also not so coincidentally, Laura Knaperek has lost twice to Harry Mitchell, and her obsession with beating him by any means necessary almost makes me embarrassed for her. Almost, except for the fact that it can be soooo entertaining. :) ]


Emily Derose, spokeswoman for the ADP contended that the move was a standard campaign 'due diligence' practice of both parties, something that was immediately denied by Sean McCaffrey, spokesman for the Arizona Republican Party.


From the PolitickerAZ story -

"We don't do that, we think it's ridiculous and it contributes to people's low opinion of the political process," said McCaffrey.

Perhaps someone should send Mr. McCaffrey (and perhaps to good ol' JD himself) a copy of this pic -



















For those you who don't recognize the scene or the man with the crossed arms walking around the edges of the crowd, the scene is the Harry Mitchell's Congressional campaign kickoff rally in April of 2006, and the man surveying the crowd is Todd Sommers, then a legislative assistant for future ex-Congressman Hayworth. (My post on the matter here. Please note that my original source was Tedski at R-Cubed. His original post is here.)

While one party sending an employee to the public events of another party may be tacky, especially when they're caught at it :) , it's not unethical.

The same cannot be said for sending a paid Congressional staffer to a challenger's event.


Et tu, Sean.

And JD.

And Laura.

And every Rep blogger who has been cloaking himself in faux self-righteous indignation. (Sonoran Alliance here, for example)


And for the shameless, "do as we say, not as we do" brand of hypocritical flip-floppery, they all earn this week's John Sydney McCain Memorial Crappie Award.


Don't forget to check out Desert Beacon's latest "Sunday Morning Deck Bass."


BTW - When I first heard the story, the movie geek in me flashed on an early scene in the film "The Godfather" where FBI agents are spotted at the wedding of Don Corleone's daughter, taking pictures and writing down the license numbers of various mobsters attending the wedding.

In many ways, the movie scene summed up my feelings on this - while the observations were a distasteful but legitimate and necessary endeavor, it became a tacky one when it was discovered.

I'm actually glad that I couldn't find a screen cap of that scene because I would have gone with that before I remembered Mr. Sommers' visit to Tempe two years ago.

While that image would have been *almost* perfectly appropriate for this subject, the Sommers pic *is* perfect for this.

Later!


P.S. - I do want to thank this week's Crappie Award recipients for giving me the opportunity to legitimately liken Republican campaign contributors to mobsters.

Yup, that was sweet.

:))


P.P.S. - for those of you who are wondering how I can harshly criticize Congressman Mitchell in the post immediately prior to this one, yet so strongly support him (and the ADP) in this one, there's no disconnect here. His vote on the FISA bill with retroactive telecom immunity was a dreadful mistake, one that I wholeheartedly disagree with, but he's done some great work for veterans, students, and his district, and he is head and shoulders (and torso, hips, thighs, and knees, too!) above his challengers in terms of his qualifications for the office.