Federal CO river plan; Betcha Jared Polis' 30 pieces aren't water soluble

I don't usually use this platform to comment on national issues, but as this one affects AZ directly, it fits here.

Earlier this week, the federal government announced a plan to deal with the depleted Colorado River, which furnishes waters to a significant portion of the western U.S.

From CNN -

New Colorado River plan will require steep cuts for three states as reservoirs tumble to new lows

California, Arizona and Nevada will be required to slash their water use from the drought-stricken Colorado River by 16 to 20% through 2028, under a federal plan set to be released in the next few days, according to a senior state water official.

But some fear it won’t be enough to save the lifeblood water basin as vital reservoirs plummet toward record lows.

The lower basin states California, Arizona, and Nevada; the upper basin states are Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

While all of the lower basin states are facing water cuts (and as the state with the junior-most water rights among those, AZ would face the most devastating cuts), the upper basin states are facing no cuts at all.

From CBS -

Colorado River plan spares upper basin states from mandatory cuts, for now

The U.S. Department of the Interior has issued its plan for how to manage water on the Colorado River. It comes after Colorado and six other states failed to reach an agreement on releases from two key reservoirs - Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

The river provides drinking water for 40 million people, irrigation for 5 million acres of farmland, and hydropower for seven states. It's been shrinking for the last 20 years.

AZ Democrats responded quickly and loudly.

From Governor Katie Hobbs -

After the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026 Colorado River Operations, Governor Katie Hobbs issued the following statement:

“Today, the federal government released a broad range of alternatives for how the Colorado River will be managed over the next ten years. Within that range is the opportunity for the federal government to adopt the commonsense, compromise proposal put forward by Lower Basin States for 2027 and 2028. Our proposal is one of the largest conservation programs in Colorado River history and builds on Arizona’s decades-long commitment to responsible water stewardship. While this FEIS still contains unacceptable options that include the federal government forcing Arizona to take the majority of draconian water cutbacks, implementing the Lower Basin agreement would protect Arizona from massive water cuts, distribute reductions more fairly across the Lower Basin States, and provide stability and protection to the water supply that our communities rely upon.

From AZ Senators Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego -

Today, Arizona Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) released the following statement on the Bureau of Reclamation’s Final Environmental Impact Statement for post-2026 operations of the Colorado River:

“The framework outlined in the Department of Interior’s Final Environmental Impact Statement could place an unfair burden on Arizona, including the possibility of reducing the Lower Basin’s Colorado River allocation by as much as 40 percent, without requiring comparable commitments from the Upper Basin. Arizona, California, and Nevada have already put forward a fair, practical proposal to stabilize Lake Mead and Lake Powell through shared conservation, and that proposal should serve as the foundation for the next set of Colorado River operating guidelines 2027 and 2028.

“We remain committed to working with all seven Basin states, Tribal nations, water users, and the federal government to reach a durable agreement that protects Arizona’s water future, strengthens the Colorado River system, and ensures every Basin partner does its part.”

From the City of Phoenix, and its Mayor, Kate Gallego -

"Solving the Colorado River crisis demands a fair, basin-wide solution in which every stakeholder is asked to sacrifice," Mayor Kate Gallego said. "Instead, the federal government takes aim at Arizona and Lower Basin states even though we continue to do our part and conservation is a core part of our water culture. Phoenix is prepared to use less Colorado River water, but it is wrong to lay a disproportionate share of the burden on Arizona."

Now, here is part where I say the quiet part out loud - 

Cheeto, aka President Trump, is known to be petty and vindictive.

While this "plan" may harm AZ the most, it will still harm California, and Cheeto absolutely HATES CA. 

And he is happy to harm others so long as he can get in a shot at CA.

Of course, Cheeto may consider it a "win-win" situation.

Two of the upper basin states, Utah and Wyoming have Republicans, Trump loyalists both, as governor.  Utah has Spencer Cox while Wyoming has Mark Gordon.  He may consider helping them to be a good thing; maybe not an intentional one, but one he'll take so long as he hurts CA.

The other two states have Democratic governors.

New Mexico has Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is termed-out and isn't running for re-election, so this scheme won't help her.

Colorado has Jared Polis, who earlier this year, infamously commuted the sentence of election denier and Trump ally Tina Peters and had her released from prison.

It seems that Cheeto has (yet again) used public policy to benefit one of his allies and pay a debt.

It's early, but 2030 is coming

...And for the first time in a long time, Arizona Democrats have a deep bench.

Caveat: No elected officials were talked to about this; I truly have no idea what office any of them may be interested in, or even if any person mentioned here is even interested in continuing their political career.

Also, there is an underlying presumption that those seeking reelection to their current offices will succeed in their efforts.  Reality may disagree and doesn't care about presumptions.

This is just idle speculation on my part.

First up - Governor Katie Hobbs, seeking reelection in 2026, will be termed limited in 2030..

May go federal, either U.S. House or U.S. Senate (the seat currently held by Ruben Gallego will be on 2030's ballot).

Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes.  Both seeking reelection in 2026, will be termed limited in 2030..

One or both of them may go for Governor or a federal office.  If they go for the same office, I've already decided which one I'll support in a primary, but won't be angry if the other wins - both have done some very good work for the people of Arizona.

Also, the eventual  2026 nominee for Lieutenant Governor will also be in the mix for Governor in 2030.  As I have no idea who that will be, no picture will be posted.

Wildcard:

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.  Current term ends in 2029.  Term limited.

May go federal or statewide, but I don't expect her to primary her ex - she endorsed him in 2024.

Dark horse wildcards:

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.  Current term ends in 2028.  NOT term limited.

May go federal or statewide, especially if Juan Ciscomani is still in Congress from Southern Arizona.

Tempe Mayor Corey Woods.  Current term ends in 2028.  Not sure if he's term limited.

May go federal or statewide, but may face headwinds/hard feelings over his support for the idea of having the taxpayers of Tempe pick up the tab for an arena for the billionaire-owned Phoenix Coyotes.

Could upend the political calculus for *everyone*:

If U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly wins reelection in 2028 and is on the Democratic presidential ticket in 2028, and that ticket is successful (lots of "ifs" there), that would leave a vacancy in the Senate.  While the Governor of AZ would make an appointment to fill that vacancy, it would only be valid until the next general election.  The winner of that election would then serve out the balance of the term.

Such an election would be in 2030.

2028 presidential candidate handicapping

It's early yet, so this is more an exercise in name recognition than anything else.  Many of these folks won't run, either not considering it, or considering a run and ultimately passing on it.

Other names may/will consider running as we get closer to 2028.

Of course, Cheeto may attempt to cancel the 2028 elections, rendering this moot.

These (possible) candidates are rated from 1 - 5 Sinemas.  Or no opinion as yet.

I consider Kyrsten Sinema to be the worst person to hold federal or statewide office in AZ in my lifetime (which is saying something given that group includes the likes of Paul Gosar, Rick Renzi, and Evan Mecham).

Anyone rated at four or five Sinemas is someone I won't vote for in a primary (Democratic).  Three is a maybe.

No Republicans will be rated here, for two reasons: 1) The next time a decent human being makes it through a Republican primary will be the first time in a very long time, and 2) Cheeto will try to anoint/appoint his successor.  It may be DeSantis, Abbott/Paxton, Miller, or even one of his sons (or someone else), but it won't be a woman.  

Cheeto hates women.

I'll start close to home -

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) - Four Sinemas.  He hasn't gone full Sinema yet, but he's well along that path.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) - Two Sinemas.  Like all politicians, like all of us, he has an ego, but he hasn't become utterly self-focused.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) - Four Sinemas.  Too self-focused.

Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO) - No opinion as yet.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) - No opinion as yet.

Former VP Kamala Harris (D-CA) - I don't believe she is interested in running again; as such, I haven't formed a 2028 opinion as yet.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) - Three Sinemas.

Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) - No opinion as yet.

Pete Buttigieg - Three Sinemas.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - Two Sinemas.

Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) - No opinion as yet.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) - I won't vote for anyone from NJ (or NY.  The political class there seems to believe it's above society's standards of behavior.)

Gov. Josh Green (D-HI) - No opinion as yet.

Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) - Six Sinemas.  No way in hell would I ever vote for him.

Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) - No opinion as yet.  What little I know is positive though.

Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) - As with Harris, I don't believe the 2024 VP candidate is interested in running again; as such, I haven't formed a 2028 opinion as yet.

No surprises among AZ's Congressional delegation when voting for Cheeto's budget.

The Republican members all favored gutting Medicaid, SNAP, science and everything except bigotry/ICE.  Basically, take from the poor, give to the rich, and in an effort to distract the poor from their betrayal of the public trust, blame immigrants..

The Democratic members all voted no.

The motion passed, 218 - 214; two Rs (neither from AZ) voted against it but otherwise, all Rs voted in favor of the bill and all Ds voted against it.

The AZ delegation to the House:

D Ansari N

D Stanton N

R Biggs (AZ) Y

R Ciscomani Y

R Crane Y

R Gosar Y

R Hamadeh (AZ) Y

R Schweikert Y

In the Senate:

Gallego D N

Kelly D N

Note:  Other than Abe Hamadeh, as of this writing none of the Rs have a press release up crowing about their votes on Cheeto's bill.

The votes may help the Rs in any primary they may face in 2026 (I'm looking at you, Andy Biggs, candidate for governor in AZ).  In the 2026 general election?

Not so much.

An open letter to Sen. Ruben Gallego

Rolling Stone broke some news about one of AZ's own this weekend.

From Rolling Stone -

Dem Crypto Ally Defends Fundraiser With Trump Crypto Donor

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) traveled to Pennsylvania for a town hall on Saturday to offer 

Democrats advice on how to build a bigger tent — and perhaps to drum up support for a 

potential 2028 presidential bid. 

 

When an attendee asked Gallego about a fundraiser he held 

with Marc Andreessen, a billionaire crypto investor and close ally of Donald Trump...

The rest is behind a paywall, but readers get the gist.

Dear Sen. Gallego,

Maybe you thought that people back in AZ would be distracted by Hamas' financiers offering Cheeto a $400 million bribe, and Cheeto trying to rationalize accepting it.

Maybe you thought that because it took place across the country, no one would back in AZ would notice.

We weren't distracted, and we did notice it.

You shouldn't behave like Cheeto -he's a complete skell.

You shouldn't behave like you're R-lite - they're depraved, on a good day.

You shouldn't behave like you're Sinema-lite - she defines "ethically challenged."

Before she changed her registration, and *couldn't* be part of the Democratic primary, I had already decided that if she was the Democratic nominee, I would skip the race.

That may happen when you're up for re-election, and i expect that I won't be the only person to make such a decision.

You didn't win in 2024 by much and you can't afford to lose too many voters...nor can you count on the Rs nominating someone as personally unpopular as Kari Lake.

Me

Think Kari Lake has too much time on her hands now that VOA has been dismantled by Vlad's lackey?

 From The Bulwark -

Kari Lake Accosted Ruben Gallego at a Posh D.C. Club

INSIDE NED’S CLUB WASHINGTON, DC—the swanky new private members’ club featuring vintage gold and green furnishings, a renowned chef and mixologist, and a rooftop with views of the White House—cable news figures can often be seen holding court alongside an array of Democrats and Trump administration officials taking meetings, all of them free to relax in the same space outside the view of the public.

A recent chance encounter there between bitter 2024 campaign rivals, however, reveals how the overheated political climate is becoming less and less hospitable to cross-partisan bonhomie, particularly when immigration is a chief concern.

As Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) headed toward the elevator to leave on a recent late-winter day, he ran into his former opponent, the infamous Trump acolyte Kari Lake. As Gallego went for a handshake, Lake accepted it with both hands—a gesture that usually accompanies a warm greeting.

What she said was anything but that.

“How does it feel,” she asked, “to be bought and paid for by the cartels?”

Gallego was taken aback, according to a person familiar with the exchange. So, too, was Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), who was within earshot of two and blasted Lake—whom Trump tapped to lead Voice of America before dismantling it this week—for speaking that way to a U.S. senator.

My guess is that Lake isn't going away - she's going to run for *something* next year...and, like State Senator Wendy Rogers, every cycle until she wins something.

Is deputy dog catcher in La Paz County an elected position?

Election postmortem

Yes, I realize that this benefits from 20/20 hindsight.

1. Joe Biden should have stepped well before any Democratic primary/caucus.  The eventual nominee (who I will presume would have been Vice President Kamala Harris) would have benefited from getting their campaign and messaging in order *before* the general election period.  As it was, the campaign seemed rushed.

2. Speaking of messaging, abortion rights wasn't the wrong message, but making it the *only* message was.  America is a complicated place that faces many issues and ceding economic and immigration issues to Republican-generated lies was a mistake.  Ruben Gallego was the only Democrat to win a high-profile race in AZ, and it helped him to define himself before his opponent, Kari Lake, started spreading lies about him (of course, it also helped that everyone who meets her intensely dislikes her).  She did lie, a LOT, but the message was already out.

Going forward, that might be something for Democratic candidates (and their consultants) to keep in mind.

3. None of this changes the most disheartening fact - there are literally millions of Americans who would rather support, and vote for, an utterly vile human being, so long as the vile person is male, and his opponent is female.

Even if they're being lied to, and know it.  So long as the lies are what to hear, they'll choose to believe the lies,

I don't have a "should" to address this.

Someone should get a message to Kari Lake

And the gist of that message should be: "Please go away."

Over the last couple of days, I've received four email messages from Kari Lake.

The voters have spoken, twice (in 2022 and 2024), and both times, they have thoroughly rejected her. 

Yet, she still insists that her shortfall in votes is due to illegal votes, and only "legal" ones are counted, she'll win.

She doesn't define "legal", but one thing is clear.  She want lots of money.

From one email -

From another -

She's rapidly devolving to "perennial candidate" status, and she'll go there if she feels that's the best way for her to keep the grift going.

Is deputy dog catcher an elected position?

She's baaaaack

During my "Predictions" post, I observed that Republican US Senate nominee Kari Lake was basically off the air and her last few ads were short and apocalyptic, strongly tying her to Cheeto.

Well, I saw one of her spots today. 

It was still short and apocalyptic; this one featured Cheeto disdainfully mispronouncing the last name of her opponent, Congressman Ruben Gallego.

My guess (and it's only that - this may shock some readers [or not :) ] but I'm not exactly a Lake campaign insider) is that she's hoarding her remaining funds to be expended during, and during the run up to, Election Day.  While early voting is very important, a significant number of votes will be cast then.

A single word can be sooooo descriptive

Both articles are from last week.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake’s whiffed attack over Gallego’s divorce puts her campaign further in the gutter

Kari Lake’s last-ditch effort to slime Ruben Gallego in the lead-up to Election Day landed with a dud.

Lake had been hyping up an effort by The Washington Free Beacon, a right-wing media outlet, to pry loose documents related to Gallego’s divorce from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

Although the Gallegos have publicly been amicable since their split, Lake and other conservatives have homed in on the fact that their divorce came as Kate Gallego was pregnant, and the fishing expedition has seemed intent on finding details that could be used to sling mud at Gallego. Lake has run ads referring to Gallego as a “deadbeat dad” and last week promised that a “massive story” was on the horizon.

On the same topic, from KPNX (12 News Phoenix), written by Kevin Reagan -

Here's what we found in Ruben Gallego's divorce records

A heavily-redacted version of U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego's divorce papers released Thursday revealed little new information about the dissolution of his marriage to Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

After the Arizona Supreme Court denied a motion to keep the Gallego divorce records sealed, a 465-page document was published by Yavapai County Superior Court that included several redactions regarding how the Gallegos split custody of their son, how they split their assets, and their child support agreement.

 

I've got one word to describe the Gallego's divorce proceeding record -

Boring.

I've got one word to describe Kari Lake and her surrogates -

Despicable.

(That word was used by Tony Cani on KTVK's Politics Unplugged, but I was there even before I heard it from him.)

The Gallego-Lake debate is on TV right now.

Just a guess here, but Lake probably won't win any new voters with her performance.

She seems mean, petty, and ill-informed (she repeatedly referred to IVF [In Vitro Fertilization] as "UVF", which is the acronym for Ulster Volunteer Force or University of Valley Forge).

Well, there is one area where Tucson outranks Phoenix

In early July, WalletHub published a study ranking America's most- and least-educated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in 2024.  MSAs are federally-designated urban areas with a city at the center of it ("center" is NOT a geographic term).  The study only included the top 150 MSAs,  and in Arizona, only Phoenix and Tucson were ranked.

In a development that probably isn't a surprise to any who live here, AZ didn't do too well in the survey.

From the survey -

There are other MSAs in AZ, and I'm going to speculate on where they'd rank, with "above Tucson" or "below Phoenix" designation (as none of the other MSAs are in the top 150, the study didn't rank them, so this is just speculation on my part and may be incorrect).

The list of other MSAs in AZ, from the Eller College of Management at U of A -

• Flagstaff MSA (Coconino Co.) - probably higher than Phoenix, may be higher than Tucson.  Having NAU in the MSA doesn't hurt.

• Lake Havasu City-Kingman MSA (Mohave Co.) - lower than Phoenix.  There's nothing there other than dust.

• Prescott Valley-Prescott MSA (Yavapai Co.) - lower than Phoenix, but may be the highest ranked of the other MSAs (with the exception of Flagstaff), benefitting from the number of Phoenix residents who have moved there.

• Sierra-Vista MSA (Cochise Co.) - lower than Phoenix, but its ranking may benefit from its proximity to Tucson.

• Yuma MSA (Yuma Co.) - lower than Phoenix. possibly the lowest in AZ.  Yuma County is primarily agricultural and has the highest unemployment rate in AZ.

Bet that Tom Horne and the Republican caucus in the legislature think that the rankings of Phoenix and Tucson are too high and wish to reduce them, while Kate Gallego and Regina Romero, the mayors of Phoenix and Tucson, respectively, believe that the existing rankings should be increased upon.

Mark Lamb, R candidate for U.S. Senate, has a rather "flexible" relationship with telling the truth

That's something he shares with Cheeto.

Of course, that may not help much in that primary - his opponent there, Kari Lake, is also afflicted by the same character flaw.

He appeared on channel 12's Sunday Square Off this morning, ostensibly to respond to Kari Lake's claim the he's a coward (his response: "No, I'm not"), but mostly because he's thought to be rising in the polls in that race, probably because of Lake's utter despicability as a person.

Lamb may be more likeable, but he's no better a human being than Lake.

He started off by claiming that the jury verdict convicting Cheeto of 34 felonies was due to "unequal justice."

Later, he went on to prove that there's an unequal system of justice in the U.S. by urging the deportation of 15-20 million people, presumably without 15-20 million trials.

He also continued propagating the right-wing trope that that judge in Cheeto's criminal trial instructed the jury that they didn't have to be unanimous in finding him guilty.  That's false.

He also tried to say that  election denialism it a bipartisan thing by citing Hillary Clinton and Stacy Abrams.  He lied.

He said frequently that "the border"/illegal immigration was the biggest issue facing the U.S. and as his job is to protect his community in Pinal County (he's the sheriff in Pinal County), he's going to "work the border."  There's one problem with that.  Miles of Pinal County that border another country: 0.

He also claimed that fentanyl overdoses were the leading cause of death in the U.S.  However, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, the leading cause of death for Americans in 2022 (the most recent year for which data is available) was heart disease at over 702K deaths.  Yet, according to the National Institutes of Health National Institute on Drug Abuse, there were just under 108K overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2022.

He also stated that crime was rising in the U.S..  It isn't.  Not even close..

His penchant for lying may help him in the Republican primary, but no matter who emerges from that primary, everyone should vote for Ruben Gallego in the general election.

Pic taken from his website

Poll: Gallego leading Lake

Though in AZ, Biden vs. Trump is too close to call.

Pointed at this by fivethirtyeight.com.

I saw this today, and, while I firmly believe that when it comes to elections, there's only one poll that counts (and it's held in November, this poll is current enough to merit a post.

From fivethirtyeight -

The poll in question is from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and from and Mainstreet Research.

From FAU's press release -

BATTLEGROUND STATES NEVADA AND ARIZONA TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Click here for Full Crosstabs and Other Products From FAU/Mainstreet

Download Nevada Report

Download Arizona Report

With the 2024 election cycle fast approaching, new polling data from Nevada and Arizona reveal a deeply engaged and starkly divided electorate in these pivotal battleground states.

The FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research polls highlight the intense partisan polarization and motivations driving voter sentiment, including economic concerns, the legal proceedings against former U.S. President Donald Trump, and the potential entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third-party candidate.

[snip]

Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, is currently outperforming incumbent Republican Gov. Kari Lake (44% to 37%) suggesting that Lake has had a difficult time getting traction in this race.

Like Trump, Lake is leading only with voters under age 49, and more than 20% of voters in that age bracket indicate they are still undecided. The close numbers forecasting a fight for control of the House in Arizona underscore how the congressional generic ballot highlights the intense battle being waged across the state’s districts.

According to the full survey report, Gallego has a 7% lead among registered voters and an 8% lead among likely voters.

One note about the press release: it cites Lake as the incumbent governor.  She's not.  She was the 2022 R nominee for AZGov. She just wishes she was governor, and has filed lawsuits to overturn the results.  None of those have been successful in overturning the election; of course, that may not have been the real purpose of the lawsuits.

Her rubes supporters have sent her a lot of money based on her claims.

Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.

Rats fleeing the sinking ship: the Lake/DeWit "scandal" continues to unfold

The word scandal is in quotes because, to the best of my knowledge (I'm not an attorney), nothing that DeWit did was illegal.

First, from BusinessInsider -

Kari Lake just successfully pushed out Arizona's top Republican Party official after he allegedly tried to bribe her to stay out of politics

The chairman of the Arizona Republican Party resigned on Wednesday, alleging the GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake all but forced him into doing so.

On Tuesday, the Daily Mail published a 10-minute audio recording in which Jeff DeWit, the party chairman who's served for just under a year, appears to bribe Lake into staying out of politics for two years.

[snip]

Lake, apparently recording the in-person interaction herself, can be heard repeatedly rejecting the entreaties, saying she wouldn't even do it for $1 billion.

The rats, including the biggest one himself, are falling all over themselves to avoid AZ.

From AZ Family, written by Ben Bradley -

Trump no longer coming to Arizona; AZGOP Freedom Fest canceled

Former President Donald Trump will no longer be coming to Arizona this week, where he was scheduled to speak during a GOP rally Friday evening in Phoenix. The AZGOP Freedom Fest has also been canceled, an Arizona Republican Party spokesperson confirmed to Arizona’s Family.

Trump was scheduled to be the keynote speaker at the event. Other speakers who were scheduled to appear included Congress members Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh, Charlie Kirk and Tyler Bowyer. Tickets to the event were sold through eventbrite, and a state GOP spokesperson says refunds will be issued.

Maybe Lake should learn a lesson from another AZ Republican who recorded things.

From TPM, dated June 21, 2012 -

Arizona Lobbyist Suspected Of Working For FBI Asked To Leave GOP Fundraiser

A lobbyist suspected of working for the feds in an FBI corruption sting was asked to leave a fundraiser for two state Republicans that was attended by Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin (R), TPM has learned.

Lobbyist Mike Williams, who is suspected of being involved in a wide-ranging corruption probe of Arizona politicians which has already ensnared Rep. Ben Arredondo, was asked to leave a June 18 fundraiser by lobbyist Stan Barnes, who was hosting the event at his firm Copper State Consulting Group in Phoenix. Donations at the “M-Squared Fundraser” went to Republican state Sen. Michele Reagan and Republican state Rep. Michelle Ugenti, while Tobin was a special guest.

Note: Williams is still a lobbyist registered with the Arizona Secretary of State.

"Shunning" is a time-honored tactic for Republicans when dealing with one of their own who records things, so in the long run, this may help Mark Lamb in the AZ Senate R primary* and Ruben Gallego in the general**.

* = I still believe that Lake will ultimately be the R nominee.  This may help Lamb get closer, but it won't put him over the top.  On the other hand, she still has a lot of time to make more mistakes.

** = I still believe that Gallego will win in the general election, but it won't be a walkover.  This helps, though.