R LD27 Senate primary debate

On 6/22, the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission (AZCCEC) held a "debate" between the two Republican candidates for the R nomination for the State Senate seat in LD27, incumbent Kevin Payne and his challenger, Anthony Kern.

All of AZCCEC's debates are here.

From the website of the AZSOS -

Quotes were used around "debate" because Payne declined to participate and turned it into a Q and A session with Kern.

With either outcome, the R nominee will be a lousy human being.

Payne is already known for his dismissive demeanor toward his Democratic colleagues, often not even acknowledging their existence when encountering one.

Kern can best be described as "fact-dismissive."

At the 40:14 mark of the video, Kern claimed the accused killer of Charlie Kirk, Tyler Robinson, was a trans Democrat.

At the 41:02 mark of the video, moderator/interviewer T.J. L'Heureux of the Arizona Agenda advised him that wasn't so.

Kern shrugged off reality.

Earlier, he also called Robinson "deranged."  He may be that, I'm not a psychiatrist or psychologist who is qualified to make such a diagnosis.  Kern may want to think twice about categorizing anyone, though.

From AZMirror, written by Jerod Macdonald-Evoy, dated 5/5/2021 -

Where was Anthony Kern on Jan. 6?

Newly reviewed footage by Arizona Mirror raises new questions about former Republican lawmaker Anthony Kern’s activities around the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 as the lawmaker continues to participate in a recount of Maricopa County’s ballots from the 2020 general election. 

Kern has continually insisted that he did not breach the Capitol and no footage or other evidence suggested otherwise. Photos show Kern on the front steps. 

However, footage reviewed by the Mirror shows that Kern was present at other parts of the Capitol breached by protesters. 

Kern, who was an election denier in 2021, doubles down on that today - 

At the 17:40 mark, Kern stated "...What we saw in 2020 was absolutely ridiculous...I still believe that election was absolutely stolen and I will never sway from that because there's enough out there so we do need to get our election and President Trump..."

He never bothered to provide any evidence.

At 18:08, he stated "Elections have been stolen for the past 40 years."

Ummmm about that...

From Ballotpedia -

It's been over 34 years since Democrats controlled the State Senate and over 60 years since the Ds controlled the State House (control of the Senate was split in 2001/2002).

Should someone bother to inform Kern that if "elections have been stolen", it hasn't been by Ds?

Or will he just shrug that off, too?

While this isn't my district and none of these folks will be on my ballot, in an interesting way, watching this did help me with my choice in the CD1 Democratic primary.

Early on, at the 9:29 mark, Kern was asked if there was a Democratic member of the legislature he could/had worked with.

He named one, and that person is one of the candidates running in the CD1 Democratic primary.

If Kern likes a person, I won't vote for that person.

 

The GOP's Dirty Tricks Brigade has a multifaceted game

Rs like to claim they're in favor of free markets, but in the marketplace of ideas, they know their ideas are morally and ethically bankrupt, so they've resorted to deception.

Got a couple of pieces of campaign lit in the mail on Saturday (the mail was delivered very late Saturday, so I didn't pick it up until Sunday).

Not only is Republican operative Risa Lombardo running as a Green Party candidate in an apparent effort to siphon votes from Democratic incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs, she's fronting an effort to reduce the number of voters registered as Democrats.  From the mail -

The website she's urging people to go to. vote.gov, is a federal website controlled by Cheeto (or more probably, one of his sub-grifters).

The Arizona Green Party has disavowed her.

From their website -

Lombardo is the only candidate for Governor on the ballot for the Green Party primary, but the Green Party has thrown its support behind a write-in candidate, Carlos Melendez.  It's a pattern that repeats itself in the contest for Secretary of State, except there, the write-in that they're supporting is Jon Ralston.

From the website of the AZ SOS -

Election challenges are (mostly) resolved but some are still ongoing

I do have one question (though I believe I already know the answer).

First, the challenges:

From the Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS) (emphasis added by me) -

The "biggest" name to withdraw from a race after the candidate's nominating petitions were challenged was Eric Descheenie, former state legislator, who withdrew from the CD2 Democratic primary.

That sets up a general election contest of Jonathan Nez (now unopposed in the Democratic primary) and incumbent Eli Crane (unopposed in the Republican primary).

On a totally unrelated note, Arizona's "Sore Loser" law seems to preclude a candidate whose petitions were challenged from jumping races and running as a write-in candidate in another race. 

From ARS 16-312 -

F. Except as provided in section 16-343, subsection E, a candidate may not file pursuant to this section if any of the following applies:

1. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate ran in the immediately preceding primary election and failed to be nominated to the office sought in the current election.

2. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for the immediately preceding primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-322.

3. For a candidate in the primary election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for the current primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-322, withdrew from the primary election after a challenge was filed or was removed from or otherwise determined by court order to be ineligible for the primary election ballot.

4. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for nomination other than by primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-341.

G. A person who files a nomination paper pursuant to this section for the office of president of the United States shall designate in writing to the secretary of state at the time of filing the name of the candidate's vice presidential running mate, the names of presidential electors who will represent that candidate and a statement signed by the vice presidential running mate and designated presidential electors that indicates their consent to be designated.  A nomination paper for each presidential elector designated shall be filed with the candidate's nomination paper. The number of presidential electors shall equal the number of United States senators and representatives in Congress from this state.

My question is this: Does this section of Arizona law apply to candidates for Congress?

I ask because someone was a Green Party candidate in CD1 whose petitions were challenged and withdrew from the race is now running as a write-in candidate in CD3.

From the AZ SOS (again, emphasis added by me)

I'm guessing that the "Sore Loser" law doesn't apply to candidates for federal office, but as I'm not an attorney, I don't really know.

It's an election year. Candidate challenges are inevitable

One challenge has already been decided by a court (dismissed), and six candidates have withdrawn.  Per the AZSOS, 18 cases are pending (caveat: some of those cases may yet be consolidated and at least one involves a candidate who has withdrawn as the result of another case)

From the Arizona Secretary of State -

So far, the "biggest" name to withdraw is Christopher Ajluni, the No Labels candidate in CD1.  I expect that to change as the challenge process grinds on.

Online sigs v. in person sigs

This list was pulled from a .pdf that's available on the website of the Arizona Secretary of State.

Caveats:

"Arizona Independent Party" is now "No Labels".

I added the percentage (%) column.

Legislative races were not examined.  I'll wait until all challenges are dispositioned (one already has been)

Prediction: My guess is that while online nominating sigs are almost unchallengeable (at least according to Arizona Agenda), the Democratic candidates who lead their primary opponents in paper sigs will have a leg up in those primaries.  Assuming those sigs are legitimate, that means that doors were knocked and voters talked to (I make no such prediction in the primary contests for other parties.  With them, I'm usually wrong. ☺)

Gina Swoboda, former chair of the AZGOP, causes tumult in not one, but *two* races

...and she did that by switching the office that she's seeking.

Note: I received a head's up on this from watching AZ Family's Politics Unplugged (YouTube link)

She WAS a candidate in Congressional District 1 (CD1), one of the many people looking to replace David Schweikert, who's running for Governor this year.

For a long time, she and Joe Chaplik, a Republican state legislator from that area, were the biggest "names" in R primary in CD1.

Then former NFL placekicker Jay Feely went district shopping and jumped out of the CD5 contest, vying to replace Andy Biggs (like Schweikert, he's also running for Governor) and jumped into the CD1 contest.

So Swoboda looked at the race for Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS).

By filing a statement of interest, she can collect nominating signatures.

While the panelists on Politics Unplugged weren't sure she that she actually intends to enter the AZSOS race, but I think she does - she formed a committee for a run, so she can spend money in order to campaign for the office.

She does have one major problem - nominating sigs.  The signatures needed in order to run for for a statewide office (as AZSOS is) are significantly higher than they are for a CD, and the ones she has collect so far cannot be transferred.

From the sig requirements page -

She has approximately seven weeks to collect almost 7600 sigs (they're due by 3/23), and that will get her to just the minimum number required.  It won't be easy.

And if she turns in just the minimum, that will almost certainly result in one of the other AZSOS candidates filing a challenge.

My guesstimate is that she will need to submit nearly 11K sigs in order to withstand any challenges.

Is the popcorn concession at the office of the Arizona Secretary of State available?  😃

What a difference a day makes!

Yesterday, I wrote a post listing all of the folks who have expressed an interest in being a candidate for Congress in AZCD1.  That's already changed.

From AZFamily -

Former Cardinals kicker Jay Feely switches congressional districts in Arizona race

Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely has switched his congressional campaign from the East Valley to Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, joining a crowded Republican primary in Scottsdale.

The move comes after President Donald Trump endorsed former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the Fifth Congressional District last month, sending Feely a message to run in a different district.

I think that Feely is able to utilize the same federal committee that he used for his CD5 run as for his CD1 run.  However, I'm not a lawyer, so I could easily be wrong about that.

If he can, he hasn't updated his committee yet.

From the FEC -

Get your popcorn and shock absorbers out - it's going to be entertaining though bumpy ride

Horse Race time - Chaplik is in the AZCD1 race

News broke this week that Republican state representative Joe Chaplik (LD3) has entered the race the outgoing member of Congress in CD1, David Schweikert.  

Schweikert is running for governor of Arizona.

The person most hurt by his entry into the CD1 race may be Gina Swoboda.  She's the current chair of the AZGOP, and prior to Chaplik's entry, the biggest "name" in the race (quotes used because while they have more notoriety/name recognition than the other candidates, it's limited [not everyone is a political geek like me and know who major party chairs and members of the state legislature are])

The person most helped by his entry into the CD1 race may be one of those low name rec candidates.  If Swoboda and Chaplik spend the primary season launching political haymakers at each other, it may open up a path to victory in that race for one the others.

Also, while nominating signatures are due to be submitted by April 6, 2026, it's still early enough for a well-funded "big name" to enter the race.

Currently 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans have filed a Statement of Interest (SOI) in the race (filed with the Arizona Secretary of State)and/or formed a committee for run with the FEC (one Libertarian has an open committee, but is was formed in 2024 and has been receiving letters about a failure to file reports, so that person may not be running this year).

Below is a list of folks who have filed an SOI and/or formed a committee for a run next year.  In the date section, if no year is specified, the year is 2025.  Also, one date format is month (as text) followed by date.  That's because my spreadsheet program kept changing 3/4 to a fraction.

The vast majority of potential D candidates here filed their paperwork before Scheikert exited the race; the vast majority of Rs did so after.

Not all people who express interest/form a committee will be on a ballot.

I'm not going make any prediction regarding the outcome of race for the R nomination here - my prognosticating ability in R races is almost nonexistent.

As for the D race, no prediction until I see who's actually going to be on the ballot.

Caveat: CD1 in my district.

That sound you hear is shoes dropping in multiple CDs

...Expect more "names" to enter these races (and more)...

- the former sheriff of Pinal County, Mark Lamb, has filed a Statement of Interest (SOI) with the AZSOS for a run at replacing Andy Biggs in CD5.

...as was widely expected, the current chair of the AZGOP, Gina Swoboda has throw her hat in the CD1 race to replace David Schweikert - she's formed a committee with the FEC -

Both Biggs and Schweikert are running for AZ Governor.

Arizona Mirror has stories up on Lamb and Swoboda.

Schweikert jumps out of the CD1 race and into the AZGovernor race: that sound you will soon hear will be dominos falling

This is a "horserace-y" kind of post.  I will criticize the MSM for focusing on horserace issues in their stories on politics, but I'm not MSM so I can do this.

While most of the stories/talk about David Schweikert's impact on the Republican primary for Governor of Arizona, but his switch of primary races affects more than a single contest.

While his move affects many, even all, races on the ballot (open seats in Congress are rare, so everyone and their grandmother is looking at entering the race), I'll just focus on two here - Congressional District 1 (CD1) and Legislative District 3 (LD3).

All of the incumbents in those districts are currently Republicans.

The voter registration advantage in CD1 favors Rs, but is seen as poachable by Ds.

Perhaps less poachable now that the ethically-challenged Schweikert has stepped aside, but still poachable.

A lot of people, mostly Democrats, are looking at the race; however, *many* Rs are rumored to be considering entering the race.

Among the folks being talked about: Gina Swoboda, current chair of the AZGOP, and at least two sitting state legislators, Joe Chaplik and Matt Gress.  Others may be looking at the race, self-funding business folks and Cheeto-friendly celebrities, but I don't know who they are yet.

CD1: These are the people who have filed Statements of Interest (SOIs) with the AZ Secretary of State (AZSOS) and/or formed committees with the FEC:

*** = Incumbent and announced candidate for Arizona Governor.

The date listed is the date the potential candidate filed the SOI and/or most recently formed a committee with the FEC.

The ID Number for committees is the number given to them by the FEC.

The LD3 district basically covers North Scottsdale and Fountain Hills as is [ahem] less poachable (OK, I think it's a safe R district) -

LD3 State Representative: These are the people who have filed Statements of Interest (SOIs) with the AZ Secretary of State (AZSOS) and/or formed committees with the AZSOS

* = Incumbent

** - Incumbent and announced candidate for Arizona SOS.

The date listed is the date the potential candidate filed the SOI and/or most recently formed a committee with the AZSOS.

The ID Number for committees is the number given to them by the AZSOS.

This race, already wide open with incumbent Alexander Kolodin running for AZSOS, may be further upended if incumbent Chaplik chooses to mount a campaign for CD1.

The incumbent State Senator, John "I never met a government check I don't like...for me, anyway" Kavanagh of Fountain Hills, may be too old for a run at Congress (far from a sure thing); even if he won, he may not want to deal with the cross country travel necessitated by such a victory.

Note: not everyone who files an SOI or forms a committee will appear on a ballot.  In fact, many probably won't.  Also, it's still early - people not on either list may yet enter one of these races.

Arizona politics is like a small town - another Biggs is a candidate for office

Mylie Biggs (R-Chip Off The Old Block) is a candidate for the state senate seat in LD14, currently held by Senate President Warren Petersen, termed out and running for Arizona Attorney General.

She's the daughter of Andy Biggs, a MAGA Congressman and 2026 candidate for AZ Governor.

From the website of the Arizona Secretary of State:

Her Statement of Interest (SOI) -

.Her committee information -

As of this writing, no other R has filed an SOI or formed a committee in order to challenge her in the primary (I expect that to change as the cycle goes on).

Given the overwhelming R registration advantage in the district, the victor in the R primary should win the general election.

However, she's made things interesting.

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Biggs’ daughter said women shouldn’t hold public office. But she’s running for AZ state Senate

Congressman Andy Biggs’ daughter Mylie said women shouldn’t hold public office. But she’s running for a seat in the Arizona Senate.

Mylie Biggs, 25, is running for the Legislature in Arizona’s 14th legislative district, which encompasses most of Gilbert.

Last August, she appeared on a podcast called The Matt MacCurdy Program and said she thinks women should not hold office in general, but instead should run the home.

Assuming that she goes on to be victorious in the primary, she seems to be ready for membership in the R caucus -

She's already got "open hypocrite" part down pat.

Normally, this sort of hypocrisy would be disqualifying in a Democratic primary.

In an R primary?  This may help her coast to victory.

Another Biggs looks to enter the family business

From State Affairs, written by Reagan Priest -

For Andy Biggs, Arizona elections are a family affair

U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, who is running in the Republican primary for governor, might not be the only member of the Biggs family hitting the campaign trail in Arizona next year.

Mylie Biggs, the Congressman’s daughter, filed a statement of interest to run for Senate in Legislative District 14 to fill the vacant seat left by Senate President Warren Petersen, who is term-limited and running for attorney general. 

Mylie currently works at the Arizona Free Enterprise Club.

The rest is behind a paywall.

She filed a statement of interest on 6/18 -

She formed a committee for the run on 6/20 -

If she wins election to the state legislature, we may learn the answer to one question -

Does the Arizona Free Enterprise Club issue 1099s to its pet legislators, or do they just use brown paper bags?

As of right now, she's only candidate for LD14 State Senate (no SOIs or committees), but it's early still.

Former legislator Eric Descheenie forms a committee to challenge Eli Crane for a seat in Congress

Guessing that he may run on a "not a bigot" platform.

Crane can't.

On 5/30, Descheenie filed with the FEC for a Democratic run at the AZ2 Congressional seat that's current held by Eli Crane (R-Stone Bigot)

Crane may be a Trumpkin, but Descheenie has dealt with Trumpkins before.

Gotta love it when extremist Rs eat other Rs

Maybe the new GOP symbol should be from Medium (note: I don't agree with the author's "both sides" premise. but I like the pic)- 

From Arizona Capitol Times, written by Reagan Priest, dated 6/10 -

Freedom Caucus announces primary challengers for 

Arizona Corporation Commission

Two Republican state representatives announced their plans to challenge two incumbent Corporation Commissioners in 2026, saying the two commissioners have not done enough to support President Donald Trump’s energy agenda and protect ratepayers. 

Reps. David Marshall, R-Snowflake, and Ralph Heap, R-Mesa, were recruited by Arizona Freedom Caucus Chair and state Senator Jake Hoffman to run against Republican commissioners Kevin Thompson and Nick Myers. The two commissioners were first elected in 2022 and are eligible to run for a second term next year.

Note: Ralph Heap is the father of Justin Heap (R-MAGA), the current Maricopa County Recorder.

Hoffman recruited Marshall and Heap to run in the R primary because he feels that Thompson and Myers, as bad as they are, aren't Trumpy enough.

He's also recruited Kimberly Yee, the current (and termed out) AZ state treasurer, to mount a primary challenge to Tom Horne, the incumbent AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction.

He has recruited Rep. Alexander Kolodin to challenge incumbent Democrat Adrian Fontes for AZ Secretary of State.  Kolodin may face a primary is his quest to the R nominee for SOS.

Hoffman has endorsed Andy Biggs in the R primary for governor (Dear Leader hedged his bets and endorsed the two major candidates in that race which kind of obviates that move by Hoffman),  Given Biggs' noted inability to fundraise means that he'll need Hoffman more than the basically self-funding Karrin Taylor Robson will.

In fact, the only race where Hoffman hasn't issued an endorsement (at least, not that I can find) is the race for AZ Attorney General.  Fellow state senator Warren Petersen is running in that one.  Or maybe I should say "Senate President Warren Petersen."

Hoffman isn't likely to do something to tick him off while both are members of the state legislature.

Note: as of this writing, neither Marshall nor Heap have formed committees for their runs at ACC slots; however, both have filed Statements of Interest with the SOS.

Get out your popcorn and watch your wallets: Kimberly Yee is in the race for AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction

From Arizona Agenda, written by Hank Stephenson and Nicole Ludden

Horne gets flanked

The Freedom Caucus slate is almost complete.

Ever since MAGA candidates swept the polls in November, Republican state Sen. Jake Hoffman has been preparing for 2026 by drafting or latching on to Republican candidates to take back the statewide offices the GOP lost in the 2022 midterm election.

Yesterday, Hoffman introduced his newest Freedom-Caucus-backed candidate: Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee.

[snip]

Her angle? Horne is too weak on school vouchers.

On 5/27, she filed a Statement of Interest with the AZSOS.

As of this writing she hasn't formed a new committee/updated an old one for this run.

Yee is looking to unseat Horne in the R primary for Hoffman, who went looking for a viler human being than Horne.

Apparently, he found one in Yee, who has pledged to continue the school voucher grift.

Interestingly, Hoffman, in a tweet on X, referred to the school voucher program as "wildly popular."

From the same article from Arizona Agenda (I'm not on X) -

"Wildly popular"?

Maybe with the people who benefit from the grift.

With the people who pay the freight?

Not so much.

Candidate update time

Note: forming a committee and/or filing a Statement of Interest (SOI) with the AZSOS does NOT mean that will appear on a ballot going before voters.

Q: What do former politicos do when they lose a race?

A: Run for office again.

In 2022, legislator John Fillmore (R-Whackjob) lost his primary race for state house.  Now he's filed an SOI for a run at Democratic Congressman Greg Stanton. As of this writing, he has not formed a committee with the FEC.

In 2024, soon-to-be ex-legislator Anthony Kern (R-Another Whackjob) came in fifth in a seven-way primary race for Congress (actually, one was a write in candidate, so he was fifth of six ballot candidates).  Now he's looking to return to the legislature.

He hasn't formed a new committee with the AZSOS, but he may by using an old committee for this run.

It's not just former politicos, though.

Former placekicker (NFL and Arena Football League) Jay Feely (R-very Wide Right) has declared his candidacy to replace Andy Biggs in Congress.

His SOI, from the AZSOS -

His committee with the FEC -

All you need to know about him can be summed up in one pic -

From Sports Illustrated

This pic may help him in his primary race, but I don't care.

A couple of new names in election races in AZ

One's not a surprise at all and one is a bit of surprise.

First up: the one that isn't a surprise.

From AZPM, written by Christopher Conover -

Adelita Grijalva enters CD 7 race

Adelita Grijalva announced Monday morning that she is entering the race to take her late father's place in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Grijalva has followed in her father's footsteps, serving on the Tucson Unified School District Governing Board and on the Pima County Board of Supervisors.

In a written statement, she said," I've spent my life as an advocate, fighting for the brighter future we all deserve."

As for the one that's a bit of a surprise:

From the statements of interest filed with the AZ Secretary of State -

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez -

Far-right candidate Rep. Alexander Kolodin joins 2026 Arizona secretary of state race

Far-right state Rep. Alexander Kolodin is challenging Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in 2026.

The Scottsdale Republican began his campaign on Monday dodging questions about his history of claiming elections aren’t safe.

As of this writing, neither the FEC (in Grijalva's case) nor the AZ Secretary of State (in Kolodin's case) lists a campaign committee for either one one their respective websites.

In Grijalva's case, her entry into the Congressional race was long rumored; as for Kolodin, that was a bit of a surprise - the far right Freedom Caucus, of which Kolodin is a member, absolutely *hates* the current AZSOS, Adrian Fontes. and Kolodin wanted to be the first big name into the race.

My guess: he won't be the last.  The KJZZ story goes on to talk about how Gina Swoboda, the current chair of the AZGOP, is looking at the race, too.

Not breaking news: Marlene Galan-Woods is again running for Congress

...On 3/4/2025, 2024 candidate for Congress, filed paperwork with the FEC to run again for AZCD1 in 2026.  This isn't new news, as many outlets covered it last week.

On KAET's (Phoenix Channel 8) Horizon journalists' roundtable on Friday, a couple of the panelists speculated that her early entry into the race was due to two factors:

1. To forestall other entries into the race.

2. To help with her fundraising efforts.

I can't speak to her fundraising efforts, but I don't believe that her early entry won't stop anyone from entering the race - the incumbent, David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged), is widely seen as vulnerable, and any candidate with an ego will look at the race.

Caveat: this my district, and as in 2024, I won't make a voting decision until I see who actually on the ballot.

...On 2/3/2025, retired Marine JoAnna Mendoza filed paperwork with the FEC to run for AZCD6.

I didn't find any state-level or Maricopa County-level new committees of note.