Q3 money totals are in...and some (OK, *my*) suspicions are raised about a return of the Green/GOP scam

- First up, the Cash on Hand (COH) totals as of the end of September.  This is NOT a prediction of who will win a given race, but COH numbers may be an accurate predictor of who will spend money for mailers and TV/radio ads as we approach the election.

The following is for federal races and select Maricopa County-level races.  Ballot candidates only; no write-in candidates.

- Now for the suspicious part.

While doing this, I realized that no Libertarian Party candidate was on the ballot for a federal office in AZ or in Maricopa County.  Where they might siphon votes from the Republican candidate in the race

Green Patty candidates?  On the ballot is most federal races where the Democratic candidate will win or has even a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July..of winning.  Where the Green candidate may siphon votes away from the Democratic candidate in race.

Call me a cynic, but I don't believe in coincidences.

Especially since three of the Greens were write-in candidates in the primary.

Especially since all four Green have failed to file paperwork with the FEC.

If it *is* a scam foisted off on the voters of Arizona by the GOP, it's not a new one.

At least they aren't homeless kids this time.

Maricopa County school board candidates

In addition to the candidates, 27 districts will have bond, override, or "district additional assistance" questions on their ballots. 

35 elections are slated to be canceled, either due to having no candidates or having a quantity of candidates that doesn't exceed the number of offices to be elected.  The full list is here.

Ballot candidates, from the website of the Maricopa County School Superintendent -

"Official" (duly registered) write in candidates:

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Maricopa County

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, I don't know if Q2 Money raised amounts include Q2 Loan totals as none of the listed candidates reported loans in Q2.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - State

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do  include Q2 Loan totals.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Federal

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest, though there is an exception to that (Ruben Gallego, I'm looking at you :) ).

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

Federal numbers are taken from lines 11e, 13c, and 27 of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do not include Q2 Loan totals (state-level numbers are different is this regard).

Maricopa County primary candidates for 2024

Note: this is based only on signatures submitted and could (and probably will) be changed by legal challenges.

From Maricopa County's list of primary candidates -

Note2: The "Signatures Needed" column info is from Maricopa County here.

All countywide seats have challengers (which is a good thing for democracy) and only one race will be decided in the primary as all candidates for that office are from one party (County Treasurer with only two Republican candidates)

The 2026 election cycle has already started; some potential candidates have already filed statements of interest for offices up for election then.  Countywide offices up for election will be this year so the statements of interest for 2026 are only for constable and JP races.  So far.

Note3: Just because a candidate expresses "interest" in a particular race doesn't mean that they will be on a ballot.

The calendar may say 2024, but the 2026 election season has already started

And the first one out of the gate (the first serious candidate to form a committee) is....Dawn Grove.

She lost the race for the R nomination for AG in 2022.  She ended the race with $0 on hand.

She hasn't formed a committee for a run as yet, but Republican Karrin Taylor Robson may be running for governor again in 2026.  She was in the legislative chamber when Governor Hobbs gave her State of the State speech at the opening of the 2024 session of the state legislature.

While the panelists on channel 12's Sunday Square Off thought she was just making an appearance at an event where most politicians and wanna-bes show up.

Personally, I think she was reminding folks she has raised money for of her presence.

Federal Committee update - Oops on my part edition

Well, almost..

First, the update -

Initially, I thought this was a misfile on the candidate's part as I thought he's running for a seat in the AZ Senate.  However, I've seen his introduction video and he's actually running for U.S. Senate.

Normally, I wouldn't cover a quixotic candidate (I believe that he's got a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July...of winning that primary) except for his (apparent) oopsie.

Ummmm...U.S. Senate seats are statewide seats, not districted.

CD8: Toma's in, and in a blast from the past, so is Trent Franks

First up Toma.

From the website of the FEC -

This wasn't a closely-held secret as most observers expected him to get into the race and he filed a statement of interest with the AZSOS.

Now, the only question is when, or even if, Toma resigns as Speaker of the AZ House or his position in the House.

My guess is that nether will happen unless he feels he has a real shot at winning the primary.

Another entrant into the race is something of a surprise - former member of Congress Trent Franks.

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez, dated 11/1 -

Infamous former lawmaker Trent Franks enters congressional race

Former Congressman Trent Franks resigned from Congress in 2017 amid allegations of sexual harassment. Now, the West Valley Republican is launching a new campaign to win back his old seat.

Franks represented Congressional District 8 from 2003 until 2017, when he abruptly resigned after reports came to light that he offered a female employee $5 million to be a surrogate mother for his children. At the time, Franks acknowledged discussing surrogacy with a second female staffer. 

He resigned in late 2017 amid allegations of inappropriate behavior toward female subordinates.  He was replaced by Lesko 

I'm guessing he wants back in for two main reasons -

1. They've elected a Speaker who may be as socially extreme and radical as he is.

2. He resigned in late 2017, and if he wins next year's election, he'll take office again more than seven years later, in 2025.  In terms of Congressional staffers/interns, that's like four generations.  In other words, there are many female staffers/interns who haven't heard his "surrogacy" patter.

Federal Committees update

From the website of the FEC -

Republican Lake is failed 2022 candidate for Governor who's running for the US Senate seat currently held by former Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.   The FEC filing only makes official something that all observers already knew.  My guess is that the only real difference this will make is that there won't be any more (planted?) stories about how she's "considering" a run.

Republican Winn is a former senior campaign staffer for current State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne.  She's running is CD6, currently held by Republican Juan Ciscomani, setting up a primary.

Republican Jasser is running in CD4 for the seat currently held by Democrat Greg Stanton.  He's best known as a Muslim who hates other Muslims.

Democrat Newman seems to be a quixotic candidate for POTUS.

Another blast form the (recent) past: Kari Lake is running for a U.S. Senate seat

Last month, Axios thought this poorly-kept secret was a big deal; now, it's Politico.

Former newscaster and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Governor (she lost in the general election, even though she is still insisting that she didn't).

From Politico -

Kari Lake to launch Arizona Senate bid next month

Arizona Republican Kari Lake will launch a Senate run as soon as early next month, according to three people familiar with her plans.

Lake, an ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump who refused to concede her narrow loss in Arizona’s governor race last year, has been hinting at a bid for months. She has been active in national politics since her 2022 loss and this week alone she’s headlining events in Iowa and Michigan.

Blast from the (recent) past: Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the Maricopa County SD2 seat

Former state legislator and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Secretary of State (she lost in the R primary) Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the 2nd district seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

From Maricopa County's website -

(Note: I'd link to the committee paperwork, but the County's hyperlink to that isn't working)

SD2 is currently held by R Thomas Galvin.  As of May, he formed a committee to run for re-election.

Water protection for AZ doesn't seem to be his thing.

Caveat:  I live in SD2, but have not decided who to vote for.

Masters rethinking a 2024 run for AZ's US Senate seat

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

By "rethinking" I mean "Peter Thiel's financial largesse has its limits and he has no wish to throw good money after bad...even in his quest to buy a Senate seat."

But that was too long for a headline, so... :)

From Vanity Fair -

Blake Masters Might Be Getting Cold Feet About A Second Run for Senate in Arizona: Report

Blake Masters, the far-right venture capitalist who ran and lost in a 2022 Senate election in Arizona, is having second thoughts about trying and potentially failing for a second time, The Daily Beast reported Sunday.

Toward the end of August, multiple outlets reported that Masters was virtually guaranteed to enter the race. An Arizona-based GOP strategist who’d spoken to Masters told Politico that he was “pretty decisively in.” Now—not so much.

Apparently, Cheeto told Masters that he wasn't going to defeat Cheeto's favored candidate, Kari Lake, but on this, I expect that Thiel has more influence with Masters.

Laura Pastor drops out of CD3 race

From AZ Family -

Phoenix councilwoman Laura Pastor drops out of congressional race

One of the leading Democratic names eyed to replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego has dropped out of the race. Gallego is now vying to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat.

On Friday, Phoenix councilwoman Laura Pastor announced that she withdrew her name from a lengthy list of contenders, citing health reasons.

This story demonstrates two things:

1. There's a dire need for editors.  Even the two paragraphs/three sentences that I've quoted are poorly written.

"...[V]ying to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat"?  Really??  That made it by someone?

2.  It's early.  People can still drop out of or enter races.

Pastor's withdrawal leaves Yassamin Ansari, another member of the Phoenix City Council, and Raquel Teran, a former member of the Arizona Legislature and a former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, as the big "names" currently in the race.

Failed election deniers don't go away; they just run for a seat in the AZ lege

Failed candidate for Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS) Mark Finchem made noises about running for Maricopa County Recorder, which would have necessitated a move, sine he doesn't actually, you know *live* in Maricopa County.

Apparently, that aspiration has gone by the wayside.  He's now formed a committee for a run for a seat in the legislature.

From the AZSOS -

He may not actually live at that address, though.  Also from the AZSOS

From his 2022 financial disclosure -

That address goes to a condo in Phoenix.  He didn't always report that as his address, though.  From a previous disclosure -

Neither address is in the district he's running in. 

From the website of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission -

Oro Valley isn't in LD1; neither is Phoenix.

My guess is that Finchem is, like a certain other state senator (Republican election denier, of course), and is district shopping here.   His listed campaign address goes to a manufactured/mobile home.

The current state senator from LD1 is Ken Bennett, who has some election-denying cred of his own.

Democrat Daniel Valenzuela declares for Maricopa County Supervisor District 3

From KTAR -

Former Phoenix councilmember Daniel Valenzuela announces run for Maricopa County Supervisor

Former Phoenix City Councilmember Daniel Valenzuela announced Monday he is running for Maricopa County Supervisor District 3.

Republican supervisor Bill Gates announced in June he would be vacating the seat and would not be seeking reelection saying he wanted to pursue other opportunities.

Valenzuela, a Democrat, was elected to the city council in 2011 and left in 2018 to run for Phoenix mayor.

[snip]

Why he’s running

Valenzuela emphasized his past successes as a city councilmember including chairing the city’s two pension reform efforts, helping enact the city’s Anti-Discrimination Ordinance and being a leader on economic development and job creation.

“I have worked hard my entire life as a coalition builder and problem solver,” he said in a press release. “My family and I are excited to move forward with overwhelming support from first responders, community, business, non-profit and labor leaders.”

Valenzuela, or any D in that district, has an uphill battle, but a doable one.

From the website of Maricopa County Elections, voter registration totals -

[snip]

A LOT will depend on who the Rs nominate - if they nominate an election denier out of the Lake or Finchem school, that district may just flip.

More on the district, which has been trending purple recently, from Axios.

Candidate updates - state and (Maricopa) county

On July 13, Republican former legislator Kate Brophy McGee formed a committee to for run the district 3 seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to be vacated by Bill Gates, also a Republican,  He's not running for reelection because of threats directed at him and his family by MAGAts.

Prediction:  as she is what passes for a moderate in today's GOP, she'll face those same threats if she wins the R primary.

Actually, the MAGAt members of her party probably won't wait for their primary to be over before engaging in threatening behavior.

She'll be acting as her own treasurer.

From the website of the Maricopa County Recorder -

State Rep. David Cook (R-LD7) is going to challenge State Sen. Wendy Rogers (R-LD7) in the primary in that district.  He hasn't formed a committee as yet but he confirmed his intent with an appearance on KPNX's (Channel 12 Phoenix) Sunday Square Off.

Prediction:  Same as above, even if Rogers is found not to live in LD7 and can't run there.

Republican former legislator and failed Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem seems to be prepping for a run for Maricopa County Recorder.  Even though he lives in Pima County.

Prediction: No MAGAt threats (since he is one), but he may not run as he would have to move.

He hasn't filed a statement of interest with Maricopa County as yet, but the County hasn't updated that list since May 1st.

The list of Maricopa County offices to be elected in 2024 -

The AZSOS list of statements of interest is here.

Filing a statement of interest isn't mandatory before forming a committee and neither filing a statement of interest and/or forming a committee guarantees that the person doing so will appear on a ballot.

State level committee update

In 2024, the only AZ statewide offices on the ballot will be for the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC), hence the listings for ACC candidates.

From the Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS) -

Note: While Little's AZSOS entry doesn't list a party affiliation, he's a trumpkin Republican.

Democrat Faraldo is a Phoenix-based attorney.

Democrat Tovar is a current member of the ACC running for re-election.

Republican Walden is an extremist and member of the Mesa Public Schools governing board.  She's been mentioned in a previous post by me.

Federal Committee update

Pastor is a current member of the Phoenix City Council.

Aguilar is a current member of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project.

Both are looking to replace Ruben Gallego in Congress, who's running for Senate.

Sawdy is mounting a campaign to replace Republican Debbie Lesko.

O'Donnell is running to replace Republican Juan Ciscomani.

Eli Crane (R - AZCD1) draws his first opponent

 While, as a first-termer, he may face a primary challenge from another R, this challenger is a Democrat.

Though with choosing to be saddle partners with the likes of Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar, the challenger probably won't be the only one.

Lindsay Bowe, a Prescott-located activist, has filed paperwork with the FEC to form a committee for the run.

Amber Faith will be the committee treasurer.