Yes, the 2022 election is barely in the books and the inevitable lawsuit has been filed but not resolved, but 2024 races have already started.
First, a few caveats:
1. No actual humans were spoken to during the production of this post. This is purely about me throwing ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks.
2. Any names/people mentioned here are folks who I think may look at running for a particular office but that doesn't mean that I think that all will actually run for that office.
3. Anyone who currently holds an office will be presumed to retain that office, if they actually run for it. Some will be vulnerable and will lose their offices.
US President:
The 2020 nominees, Joe Biden and Cheeto, are making noises about running (actually, Cheeto has already announced his candidacy). However, I don't believe that either will actually run in 2024. They'll both be *old*. Right now, both are making noises about doing so because of Biden's desire to not to already be seen as a lame duck POTUS and Cheeto's desire to not be seen as incarcerated.
And his ego. Cheeto's vanity is boundless. For him, the presidency is less about public service and more about self-aggrandizement. And profit.
US Senate seat from Arizona:
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat is up for election, and her decision to change her registration to Independent opens up the Democratic primary in a big way,
The Republican primary was already going to be wide open but her move may make it wilder.
Doug Ducey, the current governor in AZ, has long been rumored to be eyeing Sinema's seat.
Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General in AZ, may have lost the R Senate primary in 2022 and is term-limited as AG, but he doesn't seem to be going away - he's running radio ads catering to rural voters. He may simply be burning off his budget, but I think that he's keeping his options open.
Paul Gosar and/or Andy Biggs, both are batshit crazy members of Congress. Assuming they avoid going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.
Kelli Ward, currently the batshit crazy chair of the AZGOP. Assuming she avoids going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.
An unnamed vassal of a rich guy who's looking to by a Senate seat. Think: 2024 version of Blake Masters/Peter Thiel.
Other election-denying/anti-democracy Rs may also looking at the seat.
With Sinema's change, the R primary transitions from being the political equivalent of a pro wrestling battle royal to being an outright bar brawl.
If Sinema appears on the ballot, it will have the effect of siphoning votes away from the Democratic nominee, so if the R nominee isn't a batshit crazy ones, they'll win in a walkover; if the R voters pick a crazy nominee in their primary, the race will closer, maybe close enough for the D nominee to win. For the record, while I consider Ducey and Brnovich to be poor public servants and simply lousy human beings, they're not batshit crazy.
The Democratic primary will be less wide open than the Republican primary but it will be more open than it would have been before Sinema left.
Ruben Gallego, current member of Congress, is the very early favorite here because he was already going to challenge Sinema in the primary when she was still a D.
Greg Stanton, current member of Congress and former mayor of Phoenix, has already made noises critical of Sinema. From Twitter (pic taken yesterday) -
Other Ds who may be looking at the race -
Kate Gallego, current mayor of Phoenix. Termed out and will not be in office in 2024.
Regina Romero, current mayor of Tucson.
Raquel Teran, currently in the AZ State Senate and the chair of the Arizona Democratic Party. In AZ, it's almost a tradition that one doesn't become a state party chair without running for high office.
Kathy Hoffman. currently the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction. She lost her re-election bid in 2022.
US Congress -
I expect that most of the current officeholders here will retain their office, but three of the Rs will be especially vulnerable - Juan Ciscomani in southern AZ and Eli Crane in Northern AZ because they will be first termers and David Schweikert because he's ethically challenged.
Also, if Ruben Gallego and/or Stanton run for the Senate, it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 (or more) of the others listed as potentially running for Senate to look at those seats instead.
Arizona Corporation Commission -
Three seats will be on the ballot. They're currently held by D Anna Tovar and Rs Lea Marquez Peterson and Jim O'Connor. While I expect that all of them will run for reelection I cannot and will not guess at what the primary fields will look like here.
