Rats fleeing the sinking ship: the Lake/DeWit "scandal" continues to unfold

The word scandal is in quotes because, to the best of my knowledge (I'm not an attorney), nothing that DeWit did was illegal.

First, from BusinessInsider -

Kari Lake just successfully pushed out Arizona's top Republican Party official after he allegedly tried to bribe her to stay out of politics

The chairman of the Arizona Republican Party resigned on Wednesday, alleging the GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake all but forced him into doing so.

On Tuesday, the Daily Mail published a 10-minute audio recording in which Jeff DeWit, the party chairman who's served for just under a year, appears to bribe Lake into staying out of politics for two years.

[snip]

Lake, apparently recording the in-person interaction herself, can be heard repeatedly rejecting the entreaties, saying she wouldn't even do it for $1 billion.

The rats, including the biggest one himself, are falling all over themselves to avoid AZ.

From AZ Family, written by Ben Bradley -

Trump no longer coming to Arizona; AZGOP Freedom Fest canceled

Former President Donald Trump will no longer be coming to Arizona this week, where he was scheduled to speak during a GOP rally Friday evening in Phoenix. The AZGOP Freedom Fest has also been canceled, an Arizona Republican Party spokesperson confirmed to Arizona’s Family.

Trump was scheduled to be the keynote speaker at the event. Other speakers who were scheduled to appear included Congress members Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh, Charlie Kirk and Tyler Bowyer. Tickets to the event were sold through eventbrite, and a state GOP spokesperson says refunds will be issued.

Maybe Lake should learn a lesson from another AZ Republican who recorded things.

From TPM, dated June 21, 2012 -

Arizona Lobbyist Suspected Of Working For FBI Asked To Leave GOP Fundraiser

A lobbyist suspected of working for the feds in an FBI corruption sting was asked to leave a fundraiser for two state Republicans that was attended by Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin (R), TPM has learned.

Lobbyist Mike Williams, who is suspected of being involved in a wide-ranging corruption probe of Arizona politicians which has already ensnared Rep. Ben Arredondo, was asked to leave a June 18 fundraiser by lobbyist Stan Barnes, who was hosting the event at his firm Copper State Consulting Group in Phoenix. Donations at the “M-Squared Fundraser” went to Republican state Sen. Michele Reagan and Republican state Rep. Michelle Ugenti, while Tobin was a special guest.

Note: Williams is still a lobbyist registered with the Arizona Secretary of State.

"Shunning" is a time-honored tactic for Republicans when dealing with one of their own who records things, so in the long run, this may help Mark Lamb in the AZ Senate R primary* and Ruben Gallego in the general**.

* = I still believe that Lake will ultimately be the R nominee.  This may help Lamb get closer, but it won't put him over the top.  On the other hand, she still has a lot of time to make more mistakes.

** = I still believe that Gallego will win in the general election, but it won't be a walkover.  This helps, though.

Senate reports are in*

* = Kari Lake entered the race too late to have to file a report this time around.

Net contributions and refunds are for the reported quarter (Q3 2023) while cash on hand is for the end of the quarter.

A few takes:

Ruben Gallego is doing well.  He's got more than $5 million in cash on hand and the vastness of his filing (10K+ pages!) indicates that many of his contributions are from small donors.

Mark Lamb is toast now that Lake is in the race.

Sinema is an interesting case.  She raised the least amount of cash and has the smallest filing of the three.  She also has the most cash on hand; actually, she has more than twice the total of Gallego, who's doing well.

She may not be raising much, but she's stockpiling what she has.

My guess is that she has one of three plans in place for the money (there may be others, but these seem to be the most likely to me):.

1. She intends to run for re-election, and is saving the cash for that.

2. She has found a way, or hopes to find a way, to keep the money for herself.  There are restrictions against doing just that, but if anyone has the smarts to figure out a way around them, she's got 'em.

3. She intends to gift the cash to one of the other candidates (Lake?).  Given her track record, this seems to the least likely of the three.

Looking at her report (hoping for some insight), I was struck by two questions -

1. She's reporting all contributions as being for the primary. As an I, though, she's not going to face a primary.  On the other hand, their may be some arcane FEC rule on the subject and this may be an actual violation.

2. She's still fundraising through ActBlue.  I thought that was a platform only for Democratic candidates and committees, and she is resoundingly not one.

Blake Masters is planning to do his part to make the 2024 R primary for US Senate more interesting

From Politico -

Blake Masters plans another Arizona Senate bid — this time for Sinema’s seat

Blake Masters is making plans to launch another Arizona Senate bid, potentially as soon as next week, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Masters did not reply to a request for comment. Masters won the GOP nomination last year but lost to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in a critical swing state.

Right now, I'm assuming that Kari Lake will get in the race, too, making the "Big 3" in the race for the R nomination Lake, Masters, and Mark Lamb, the sheriff in Pinal County.

Meaning that at least 3 Rs will be vying for the Bat Shit Crazy vote.

Unless one of them drops out or someone just as crazy as them gets in the race.  Both are possibilities.

Well, the first* Republican announces for the R primary in the 2024 race for US Senate

A "colorful" Pinal County sheriff not named Paul Babeu has announced his intent to run for the seat.

Mark Lamb, professional bigot and stone trumper (yes, I'm being redundant there) announced his candidacy today.  He's not the first R in that particular primary, hence the "*", but he's the first recognizable name to form a committee.

His treasurer is Lisa Lisker of Virginia.

Other Rs who may be looking at the race include (some of this speculation I've heard in news reports, some I'm pulling out of my...ear :) ):

Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson, Blake Masters, Doug Ducey, Mark Brnovich, Sal DiCiccio, and for a dark horse candidate, I'll toss out one name, Kyrsten Sinema.  If she becomes a Republican.  My guess is that even they won't accept her.

There will be others, of course, and not all of those listed will actually run, but I'll be surprised if at least two don't do so.