The calendar may say 2024, but the 2026 election season has already started

And the first one out of the gate (the first serious candidate to form a committee) is....Dawn Grove.

She lost the race for the R nomination for AG in 2022.  She ended the race with $0 on hand.

She hasn't formed a committee for a run as yet, but Republican Karrin Taylor Robson may be running for governor again in 2026.  She was in the legislative chamber when Governor Hobbs gave her State of the State speech at the opening of the 2024 session of the state legislature.

While the panelists on channel 12's Sunday Square Off thought she was just making an appearance at an event where most politicians and wanna-bes show up.

Personally, I think she was reminding folks she has raised money for of her presence.

Well, the first* Republican announces for the R primary in the 2024 race for US Senate

A "colorful" Pinal County sheriff not named Paul Babeu has announced his intent to run for the seat.

Mark Lamb, professional bigot and stone trumper (yes, I'm being redundant there) announced his candidacy today.  He's not the first R in that particular primary, hence the "*", but he's the first recognizable name to form a committee.

His treasurer is Lisa Lisker of Virginia.

Other Rs who may be looking at the race include (some of this speculation I've heard in news reports, some I'm pulling out of my...ear :) ):

Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson, Blake Masters, Doug Ducey, Mark Brnovich, Sal DiCiccio, and for a dark horse candidate, I'll toss out one name, Kyrsten Sinema.  If she becomes a Republican.  My guess is that even they won't accept her.

There will be others, of course, and not all of those listed will actually run, but I'll be surprised if at least two don't do so.

Circular firing squad: Pence and Trump campaign in AZ for opposing slates

From CNN -

The proxy fight between Trump and Pence continues with Arizona rallies

Former President Donald Trump and former vice president Mike Pence held dueling events Friday in Arizona, turning the state's upcoming Republican primary for governor into a proxy fight between the two former allies as they inch toward what could be a 2024 showdown.

The Arizona race is the latest test of Republican voters' priorities, as they decide between a candidate who has built her campaign around Trump's election lies and one who more closely reflects Pence's desire to steer the GOP's focus away from relitigating 2020 and toward conservative policies.

Pence attended two events Friday with Karrin Taylor Robson, the former Arizona Board of Regents member who has become the GOP establishment favorite in the governor's race and is endorsed by term-limited Republican Gov. Doug Ducey.

[snip]

Trump, meanwhile, campaigned with a slate of candidates who have parroted his lies about widespread fraud in the 2020 election -- led by Kari Lake, a former local television news anchor who Ducey said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union" is "misleading voters with no evidence."

Also part of that Trump ticket are Senate candidate Blake Masters, who is seeking to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in a race that is crucial in the battle for control of the Senate, as well as secretary of state contender Mark Finchem and attorney general hopeful Abe Hamadeh.

My guess is that neither side really objects to the circular nature of their firing squad...so long as the people who disagree with them are hit first.

Also, it's probably no accident that neither side invited Congressman Ronny Jackson, a former doctor to Cheeto.  He probably wouldn't hit the other side, as his aim would be a little off.

From The Daily Beast on July 18, 2022 -

[snip]

That's gotta sting: Ducey endorses Robson over Lake

Apparently, Doug Ducey, Arizona's term-limited outgoing governor, doesn't feel that learning to navigate the organizational politics of a TV studio is adequate training for a real world, elected, executive position.

Like her mentor Cheeto, a slot on TV is the extent of Lake's training for the job.

As bad as he is as governor, even Ducey did a term as state treasurer before running for governor.

From CNN -

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey endorses rival to Trump-backed candidate in GOP gubernatorial primary

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has endorsed Republican candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the race to succeed him as the top executive in the critical battleground state, putting him at odds with former President Donald Trump, who is backing former television anchor Kari Lake in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

"I've looked at each of the candidates for Governor this year, and there's no question who is the proven conservative ready to lead on Day One: Karrin Taylor Robson," Ducey, who is term-limited, said in a statement released Thursday by the Taylor Robson campaign.

Now, the fact that Dougie likes someone is NOT a positive character reference for that someone.

Taylor Robson, like Lake, may not have any real world political experience, but as the race in the R primary has come down to Robson and Lake, and Ducey had to endorse *someone*...and he doesn't endorse Democrats.

His endorsement probably wouldn't be seen as a good thing in a D primary, anyway.

Lake does have at least one other thing in common with Cheeto - she golfs.

From Instagram -

Handicapping the R primary for governor (early edition)

 

No, she's not running in the R primary, but I thought it would be best to lead off with a pic of the person that I think will be the next governor of Arizona.

Let's be clear - after Cheeto won the R primary in 2016, I am loathe to make predictions in an R primary, so I'm not counting anyone out there.

Having said that. my guess is that the R primary for governor of AZ will come down to state treasurer Kimberly Yee and developer Karrin Taylor Robson.

Former TV news anchor Kari Lake, and the others, have a chance, but most of their support seems to be of the "whistling past the graveyard" variety.

Plus, Fife Symington, convicted and pardoned former governor of AZ, and Joe Arpaio, convicted and pardoned former sheriff of Maricopa County AZ, will make their quadrennial flirtations with a run in efforts to garner some media attention.

Yup, it's going to be a crowded R primary, full of folks looking for a chance to replace Dougie.

While one or two big "names" may jump into the race later, right now, it appears that it will come down to Yee and Robson.

And in a race that close, it may come down to endorsements and support from R legislators and Ducey himself.

It would seem that Yee, a former legislator and current associate of Dougie, would seem to have an edge in that area, but don't underrate Robson's ties in this area.

In addition to being the daughter of Carl Kunasek, a long-time member of the legislature and Arizona Corporation Commission, and sister of Andy Kunasek, a former member and chair of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, before she was a Robson, she helped funnel money to some of the members of the legislature, building relationships there.

And as Republicans, while they may have friendships with Yee, their first loyalty, once and always, is to money.

Don't discount Ragan's presence as treasurer, both here and on Robson's gubernatorial committee.

She's a former staffer for former US Senator Jon Kyl, who was noted for being all about the money, and has ties to Kirk Adams, a former legislator and former chief of staff for Dougie, also noted for being all about the money.

In short, get your popcorn out.  The R primary is going to be interesting, with a lot of back channel calling in of favors and public contortions as R legislators try to have it both ways.

Disclosure time: I assume that the Democratic primary will come down to Katie Hobbs, current Arizona Secretary of State, and someone else (I don't know who yet, but there always is one).

I used to live in her LD and was impressed by her work as a legislator and have been impressed with her work as AZSOS

I've already decided to support her in the primary and have already given a (small) donation to her campaign.

I recommend that readers do the same.