Notes:
This is NOT a comprehensive list. As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.
Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.
Lastly, money is not votes. A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.
State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do include Q2 Loan totals.
First up, the abortion ban repeal.
From AZ Mirror, written by Gloria Rebecca Gomez -
AZ House has voted to repeal the 1864 abortion ban upheld by the Supreme Court
After two weeks of thwarted attempts, the Arizona House of Representatives voted Wednesday to repeal a near-total abortion ban from 1864, with three Republican lawmakers breaking from their party to join Democrats in striking it down.
Earlier this month, the Arizona Supreme Court upheld the 1864 law, which carries with it a mandatory prison sentence for doctors who provide an abortion for any reason other than saving a woman’s life, over a 15-week gestational ban passed in 2022.
My guess: the Center for Arizona Policy is tugging on every leash string available to it in an attempt to have the Rs in the Senate kill the repeal.
Next, the indictment.
From AZ Mirror (again), written by Caitlin Sievers -
Grand jury indicts 18 in fake electors scheme, including two AZ state senators
A grand jury has indicted 18 people, including two Arizona state senators and the former head of the Arizona Republican Party, in a fake elector scheme that aimed to install Donald Trump as the president after he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden.
The Arizona Attorney General’s Office has not released the names of everyone who was indicted, but all 11 fake electors were charged:
- Kelli Ward, former AZGOP chairman
- Arizona Sen. Jake Hoffman, leader of the Arizona Freedom Caucus
- Arizona Sen. Anthony Kern, member of the Arizona Freedom Caucus
- Tyler Bowyer, Turning Point USA CEO
- Michael Ward, husband of Kelli Ward
- Nancy Cottle, a Republican who’s been active in local politics for a decade
- James Lamon, a failed 2022 U.S. Senate candidate
- Robert Montgomery, former chairman of the Cochise County Republican Committee
- Samuel Moorhead, former chairman of Gila County Republican Party
- Lorraine Pellegrino, former president of the Ahwatukee Republican Women
- Gregory Safsten, former executive director of the AZGOP
There were also seven people indicted whose names were redacted.
CNN has information/guesses on the redacted indictees.
From CNN -
Meadows, Giuliani among indicted in Arizona in latest 2020 election subversion case
A grand jury in Arizona has handed up an indictment against former President Donald Trump’s allies over their efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, including the fake electors from that state and several individuals connected to his campaign.
Boris Epshteyn, a former White House aide who remains one of Trump’s closest advisers; former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows; and Rudy Giuliani are among those who have been indicted, according to a source familiar with the investigation.
{snip}
While Trump is not among those charged in Arizona, the details in the indictment suggest he is “Unindicted Coconspirator 1.”
{snip}
Other individuals charged in the Arizona indictment but whose names have been redacted, the source familiar with the investigation told CNN, include Trump allies Mike Roman, a 2020 campaign official; Trump campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis; and conservative attorney John Eastman.
{snip}
The Republican Party of Arizona also slammed the indictments in a statement Wednesday.
“Today’s indictments by Attorney General Kris Mayes represent a blatant and unprecedented abuse of prosecutorial power, aimed solely at distracting the public from the critical policy debates our country should be focusing on as we approach the 2024 election,” the statement said.
There are a lot of "nice" days in Arizona (the weather here is fantastic..outside of July and August (and late June), but there are few "good" ones.
Wednesday was a good one.
From The Hill -
Newsom set to propose legislation to help Arizonans get abortions in California
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said Sunday that state lawmakers will introduce a bill this week to assist women traveling from Arizona seeking abortion care in response to the rollout of one of the strictest abortion restrictions in the country.
An Arizona Supreme Court decision earlier this month implemented an 1864 abortion law preventing access to the procedure in nearly all circumstances starting May 1. Despite calls from national Republicans to replace the law with a less strict measure, state lawmakers have shot down attempts to overturn it.
Betcha the Rs in the AZ lege try to criminalize traveling to another state before they try to overturn the Civil War-era ban on abortion.
First up, a quick summary of that law. From ARS 16-312 -
F. Except as provided in section 16-343, subsection E, a candidate may not file pursuant to this section if any of the following applies:
1. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate ran in the immediately preceding primary election and failed to be nominated to the office sought in the current election.
2. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for the immediately preceding primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-322.
3. For a candidate in the primary election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for the current primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-322, withdrew from the primary election after a challenge was filed or was removed from or otherwise determined by court order to be ineligible for the primary election ballot.
4. For a candidate in the general election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for nomination other than by primary for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-341.
From the Arizona Secretary of State's website -
According to Maricopa Superior Court records, David Alger is suing current LD8 State Representative Melody Hernandez, current Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, current Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, and the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors (note: I live in LD8, hence my interest).
The case is scheduled for a status conference on 4/16 and Alger's challenge is scheduled to be heard on 4/18.
Election challenges are as old as elections themselves, and so are failed candidates.
In 2020, Alger was a write in candidate in the R primary in then LD24 -
He was trounced in the general election that year -
In 2018, he was on the ballot, both for the R primary and the general election.
He was the only candidate in the R primary and was thoroughly defeated in the general.
Maybe it's time to expand Arizona's to not allow failed candidates to legally challenge other candidates.
Of course, the judge is this case may find his legal filings entertaining - if that judge likes filings that can be summed up with the word "Wahhh!"
Edited on 4/15 to add:
Challenges to legislative and statewide candidates are heard in Maricopa County Superior Court. Maricopa County is home of the state capital. Challenges to municipal- and county-specific candidates will be heard locally.
/End edit
I realize that AZ Rs like to deride CA, but sometimes CA is ahead of us...which may be one of the reasons AZ Rs get their hate on for CA.
Much has been made about rift between Big Business and Republicans in the age of Cheeto, but they still share two things in common -
They both love money, and both hate democracy.
From Politico -
Businesses want to make it harder to raise California taxes. Democrats are pushing back
A tussle over tax hikes in California is intensifying. California Democrats have answered a tax-reform push by business groups with their own proposal to undercut it.
The escalating dispute over voters’ roles in approving or rejecting tax increases is a reflection of ballot initiatives’ outsize role in Sacramento and the game of cat and mouse that often plays out between opposing interests.
First, a business coalition qualified a measure for the 2024 ballot that would significantly raise the threshold for passing new state and local taxes by requiring voters to approve any increase passed by the Legislature. It would also impose a two-thirds vote requirement on local taxes — a change local governments and organized labor have condemned, warning it would starve cities and counties of vital revenue.
Now, a newly rewritten constitutional amendment backed by Democratic leaders would give the business coalition a taste of its own medicine. Under CA ACA13, any ballot measure that changes voter thresholds — such as the business group’s initiative — would need to pass by that same margin, which in this case would be a two-thirds vote.
CA's ACA13 is here. "ACA" stands for "Assembly Constitutional Amendment".
The pro-business profits scheme isn't new to AZ - in 2022, voters barely approved Proposition 132, a measure sent to the ballot by the Rs in the legislature here that imposes a 60% approval requirement for ballot measures that create a tax.
The hypocritical measure wouldn't have passed under CA's proposed standard, and shouldn't have.
I believe that the proposed amendment to CA's constitution has to come to AZ.
Only it will be necessary for such a measure to be from a citizen's initiative or to turn the Republican majority in the lege into a Democratic one.
...First up, the national debt ceiling, something used by MAGA types and other ideological terrorists to threaten America.
From Politico -
Biden beware: Manchin and Sinema align with Republicans in debt negotiations
Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema saved the filibuster and cut down President Joe Biden’s agenda, delighting Republicans. Now they’re breaking with Democrats on the debt limit, and Republicans hope they keep it coming.
The two centrists, who spent Biden’s first two years in office at odds with the left, are glaring outliers on the debt drama in the party’s 51-member Senate caucus. While their Democratic colleagues insist on no negotiations until the debt ceiling is lifted, Manchin and Sinema are not only pushing for a bipartisan deal but positioning themselves as potential players in any future Senate talks on a way out of the crisis.
Referring to Manchin and Sinema as "centrists" is mislabeling them. Better to refer to them by what they are - "Republicans in everything but name."
...Why do we keep electing Paul Gosar?
From the Southern Poverty Law Center -
CONGRESSMEN TO MIX WITH LEADER OF FPÖ, A PARTY
FOUNDED BY NAZIS
At CPAC Hungary this week, Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona and Rep.
Barry Moore of Alabama will speak alongside a global collection of
radical-right figures, including the leader of an Austrian political party
founded by Nazi SS officers.
CPAC Hungary, an offshoot of the U.S.-based Conservative Political Action
Conference, puts that country’s autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in a
global spotlight for a second consecutive year, surrounding him with
like-minded figures from across the world. Orbán is an authoritarian leader
whom Tucker Carlson regularly lauded on his show before Fox News
canceled it last month. In addition to Orbán’s history of corruption and
hostility to press freedom, he has given voice to the great replacement
conspiracy theory espoused by radical-right extremists.
...Arizona, back to being punch line material for the rest of the country.
From the NBC series Night Court, broadcast on May 2, via TVFanatic, emphasis added by me -
Olivia: Where do you feel most safe?
Gurgs: Uh, the basement level of Bed, Bath, and Beyond; the world of aquatic birds at the Bronx Zoo; and this court.
Olivia: Yes! You love this court! It’s the thing I understand least about you, and you love Daylight Savings Time.
Gurgs: Well, I love anything that Arizona is not involved in.
Olivia is played by India de Beaufort and Gurgs is plated by Lacretta
...There's one good thing; at least, the geek in me thinks it's good. :)
From KPNX, written by Kevin Reagan -
Fontes officially declares Thursday as 'Star Wars Day' in Arizona
Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has officially declared Thursday as "Star Wars Day" in the Grand Canyon State.
The proclamation coincides with May 4, a day often associated with the beloved 1977 film due to a classic line spoken by Alec Guinness' Obi-Wan Kenobi character.
The line was "may the Force be with yo."
From 12News, dated 7/14/2022 -
'Clearly unhinged': 3 of Paul Gosar's siblings endorse his opponent in Republican primary
Three of Arizona Congressman Paul Gosar’s siblings are endorsing one of his Republican primary opponents, Adam Morgan, declaring in a statement that their brother is “completely unfit for office.”
The three siblings say in a statement released Thursday that this is the first time they have endorsed a Republican. They are among several of Gosar’s nine siblings who have scorched their brother in videos, op-eds, and interviews in recent years.
He shares three things with Adam Laxalt, the R nominee for US Senate in Nevada:
1. They both hail from states in the Desert Southwest.
2. They're both dyed-in-the-wool trumpkins.
As for number 3, well, from The Nevada Independent -
Fourteen members of Laxalt family endorse Democratic rival, Cortez Masto, in Senate race
Fourteen members of Republican Senate candidate and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt’s family announced Wednesday that they would collectively endorse his Democratic opponent, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, in the heated race for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat.
The three-page letter, obtained by The Nevada Independent, does not mention Laxalt by name or his Senate campaign, focusing instead on praising Cortez Masto. That includes her positions on women’s issues, opposition to a proposed federal mining tax, public land preservation and her record as the state’s attorney general from 2007 to 2015.
Should be interesting dinner conversation -
Both have family members who believe that they belong to the "anyone but" club
From CNBC -
These 10 states are America’s worst places to live in 2022
KEY POINTS
- In this era of severe worker shortages and unprecedented mobility, employees are demanding great quality of life in the state where they work.
- Half of business executives surveyed agree it is important to do business in states with inclusive laws.
- CNBC’s annual America’s Top State for Business study considers multiple measures of the quality of life, health and inclusion.
With five million more job openings in the U.S. than there are employees to fill them, workers have more leverage than they have had in years. They are using that power — and unprecedented mobility — to demand a welcoming environment and great quality of life in the places they work.
That is why CNBC’s annual America’s Top States for Business study pays particular attention to quality of life. Now, with workers increasingly holding the cards, it is especially important in our methodology.
[snip]
1. Arizona
“It’s a dry heat,” The Grand Canyon State saying goes. But it leads to some of the worst air quality in the nation, according to the American Lung Association. Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, endures 39 high ozone days per year. That puts more stress on an already poor health care system, short on hospital beds and staff. The state spends just $79 per person on public health, among the country’s lowest. Arizona offers stunning natural beauty and top-notch cultural and recreational attractions. But that comes at a stiff price in America’s worst state to live in.
2022 Life, Health & Inclusion Score: 67 out of 325 points (Top States Grade: F)
Strengths: No metrics in the top 50%
Weaknesses: Air Quality, Health Resources, Inclusiveness, Crime
Think Dougie and the Rs in the legislature will brag about this story?
Pointed at this by the Election Law Blog.
From the Brennan Center for Justice -
Arizona Is the Epicenter of the Fight for Voting Rights Today
One of the worst voter suppression laws in the nation, fueled by conspiracy theories, has pushed Arizona to the forefront of the fight for voting rights.
In a brazen repudiation of federal law and recent Supreme Court precedent, Arizona recently enacted a law requiring documentary proof of citizenship to vote by mail or in presidential elections. In 2021, Arizona was one of the 17 states nationwide to enact new restrictive voting laws. Now it’s trying to break away from the rest of the voter suppression pack.
After a year and a half of conspiracy theories, a partisan postelection “audit,” antidemocratic legislation, election sabotage rhetoric from political candidates, and a Supreme Court ruling further weakening the Voting Rights Act, Arizona has become a key battleground in the fight for voting rights.
[snip]
Further, H.B. 2492 could be an attempt to push the Supreme Court to further erode voting rights. The Court recently held that Arizona’s previous attempt to require documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration violated the National Voter Registration Act. This new law seems designed as an invitation to the Court to reconsider that ruling.
Since the 2020 election, Arizona lawmakers have shown a consistent interest in using false claims about voter fraud as the raw material for justifying new restrictive voting laws.
HB2492 has been signed into law by Doug Ducey, Arizona's Governor; his letter to Katie Hobbs, Arizona's Secretary of State, is a shining example of self-serving doublespeak.
Note: This post only covers write-in candidates in primary elections. General election write-in candidates will be covered in a later post.
Winning a race as a write-in candidate for a top- or mid-ballot elected office in AZ is an almost impossible task (there are some down-ballot races like precinct committeeman races where write-ins have won), but it helps if the write-in candidacy is in a primary and no other candidate of the same party is on the ballot.
Even then, there are some high barriers to success for a write-in candidate - not only do they need to declare their candidacy for the votes they receive to count, the also have to receive the same (or more) number of votes as they would have needed signatures to be on the ballot.
From ARS 16-645 -
E. Except as provided by subsection C of this section, a letter declaring nomination shall not be issued to a write-in candidate of a party qualified for continued representation on the official ballot unless the candidate receives a number of votes equivalent to at least the same number of signatures required by section 16-322 for nominating petitions for the same office.
On to the declared candidates.
For Federal office -
DiSanto is an RN, and as there are other folks on the ballot, I think she's got a snowball's chance in hell of winning the primary. She's also the only Democrat on this list.
Callan formed a committee in March...for a run at Senate.
I may not like Biggs (Shocking, I know. I thought I was hiding it *so* well. :) ), but he's on the ballot. He's going to win this primary.
Reetz offers a rather generic website and as there are others on the ballot, he's another one with a snowball's chance in hell of winning.
I've already discussed Harper's candidacy. He's not going to win.
For Statewide office -
Finerd was a 2020 write-in candidate for Arizona Corporation Commission. The people on the ballot who lost that race received 1.3 million or more votes. He received 232.
I'm going to assume that both Hess and Kielsky will receive the number of votes in the primary election to be the Libertarian Party's nominee in the general election. So?
The next time a Libertarian Party candidate wins a general election here will be the first time.
Asch is a licensed nurse.
For Legislative office -
Don't ignore LD21. The Rs running as write-in candidates there are unopposed in the primary so if the winners there receive the required minimum number of votes, they'll be on the general election ballot.
In 2010, Don Shooter was an unopposed write-in candidate for a legislative seat.
He won in the general election.
That didn't end well.
It's not for a *good* reason, but it isn't because of Gosar or Biggs...or Kari Lake, Wendy Rogers, Mark Finchem, or any of the other usual suspects.
This time.
From AP (emphasis added by me)-
Democrats seek criminal charges against Trump Interior head
Democrats on the House Natural Resources Committee asked the Justice Department
on Wednesday to investigate whether a Trump administration interior secretary
engaged in possible criminal conduct while helping an Arizona developer get a crucial
The criminal referral says David Bernhardt pushed for approval of the project by
developer Michael Ingram, a Republican donor and supporter of former
President Donald Trump, despite a federal wildlife official’s finding that it would
threaten habitats for imperiled species.
Bernhardt led Interior from 2019 to 2021. In 2017, he was the No. 2 official at
the department when the Fish and Wildlife Service, an Interior Department agency,
reversed its opposition to the Villages at Vigneto, the proposed 28,000-home
development in southern Arizona, and allowed it to move forward.
Democrat Reps. Raúl Grijalva of Arizona, the committee chairman, and
Katie Porter of California, who leads a subcommittee on oversight and investigations.
made the referral in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland. They said the
committee has conducted an extensive investigation into the circumstances
surrounding the 2017 decision.
Ingram gives a lot of money to R candidates, sometimes playing both sides in a primary (note: his first initial is "K", for Keith).
While this poll covers only the R statewide primaries, I'm going to presume that D primaries are in the same name rec boat.
To be fair, that may be the only area where Democratic primary voters are similar the Republican primary voters.
KTAR has a story up on this poll.
Polling from OH Predictive Insights.
From OH -
AZ GOP Gov Race: Lake Leads, Robson Climbing, Salmon Stalls
With Arizona’s primary election roughly three months away and many competitive GOP primary races showing crowded fields, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) conducted its first statewide Likely GOP Primary Voter Poll of the current election cycle. The recent survey among Arizona likely voters revealed a competitive race for Governor and U.S. Senate, however, aside from the State Treasurer’s race, the remaining statewide offices are currently a jump ball.
This AZPOP was conducted April 4th, 2022 – April 5th, 2022 and surveyed 500 Arizona qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.
One thing that isn't surprising is that among Republican primary voters, fear of The Other is the most important issue.
Among candidates, though, the winner right now is "Unsure".
I expect that as the calendar gets closer to August, the gloves will come off. For example, Tom Horne is leading the R race for Superintendent of Public Instruction, so it probably won't be long before one of his competitors brings up his scandals.
