Election postmortem

Yes, I realize that this benefits from 20/20 hindsight.

1. Joe Biden should have stepped well before any Democratic primary/caucus.  The eventual nominee (who I will presume would have been Vice President Kamala Harris) would have benefited from getting their campaign and messaging in order *before* the general election period.  As it was, the campaign seemed rushed.

2. Speaking of messaging, abortion rights wasn't the wrong message, but making it the *only* message was.  America is a complicated place that faces many issues and ceding economic and immigration issues to Republican-generated lies was a mistake.  Ruben Gallego was the only Democrat to win a high-profile race in AZ, and it helped him to define himself before his opponent, Kari Lake, started spreading lies about him (of course, it also helped that everyone who meets her intensely dislikes her).  She did lie, a LOT, but the message was already out.

Going forward, that might be something for Democratic candidates (and their consultants) to keep in mind.

3. None of this changes the most disheartening fact - there are literally millions of Americans who would rather support, and vote for, an utterly vile human being, so long as the vile person is male, and his opponent is female.

Even if they're being lied to, and know it.  So long as the lies are what to hear, they'll choose to believe the lies,

I don't have a "should" to address this.

Someone should get a message to Kari Lake

And the gist of that message should be: "Please go away."

Over the last couple of days, I've received four email messages from Kari Lake.

The voters have spoken, twice (in 2022 and 2024), and both times, they have thoroughly rejected her. 

Yet, she still insists that her shortfall in votes is due to illegal votes, and only "legal" ones are counted, she'll win.

She doesn't define "legal", but one thing is clear.  She want lots of money.

From one email -

From another -

She's rapidly devolving to "perennial candidate" status, and she'll go there if she feels that's the best way for her to keep the grift going.

Is deputy dog catcher an elected position?

Statewide Ballot questions

There were 13 statewide questions in total on this year's ballot in AZ; 11 were referred by the Republicans in the legislature, two were referred by the people.

Eight failed - seven legislative questions, and one from the people

There were five election related questions; all failed, including the one intended to remove retention elections for judges.

It failed spectacularly, with more than 75% of voters voting it down.

One that passed: Proposition 139, amending the state's constitution to protect access to abortion which passed by more than 550,000 votes/21 percentage points.

It's not ALL bad news: most school district-related ballot questions passed

...At least in Maricopa County.  I didn't look at the other counties in AZ.

There were 40 school district questions here; 31 passed.  That's more than 75%.

Note: All listed vote totals are current; the totals will change as late ballots are counted.  However, none of them look close enough for the outcome to change.

The State Senate membership may be tied*

* = There's a rather big caveat: If current results hold up.  A couple of the districts that currently favor the Democratic candidate are very close.  One of them is verrrryyyyy close.

As results currently stand, the Senate would be tied 15-15.

However, two of the districts may change -

As things stand right now, the House will have 32 Republican members and 28 Democratic ones, though a couple of those races are close enough to change.

However, the biggest upset may have been in the Senate - former legislator Vince Leach lost his race in LD17 to Democrat John McLean.

Election Results 2024 - 3rd numbers

First and foremost, I want to thanks each and every person who helped to run a polling site or to count ballots.  I may not like some of the results, but I know this -

Democracy doesn't work without you.

Going forward, certain races will be dropped off this list as the outcome in that race seems given.  The vote totals may change but the outcome probably won't.

Election Results 2024 - 2nd numbers

 

Election Results 2024 - 1st numbers

Election Results 2024

When the Arizona Secretary of State and the Maricopa County Recorder post initial results, I'll post some of them here.  Those initial results will only be early ballots, and unless the total overwhelmingly favors one side, races won't be called by the MSM.

A few caveats:

1. They'll be AZ results only.

2. The list of races covered will NOT be comprehensive.  If readers want one added, particularly statewide or in Maricopa County, please leave a comment.

3. No state legislative races will be covered, but that may change as listed races go clearly in one direction or the and drop off my list.

4. My intent is to do an initial report and at or just after 9 (if totals change significantly) and the go to bed and pick it up tomorrow.

5. Reality may intercede and change any of this.

Maricopa County school board candidates

In addition to the candidates, 27 districts will have bond, override, or "district additional assistance" questions on their ballots. 

35 elections are slated to be canceled, either due to having no candidates or having a quantity of candidates that doesn't exceed the number of offices to be elected.  The full list is here.

Ballot candidates, from the website of the Maricopa County School Superintendent -

"Official" (duly registered) write in candidates:

MC Recorder: The best possible result for Tim Stringham: Stephen Richer loses in the primary:

Stringham is the Democratic nominee for Maricopa County Recorder...and I believe that in a general election battle against Richer, he wouldn't have stood a snowball's chance in Phoenix in July against him.

General election voters like simple competence from the public employees.

Fortunately for Stringham, though, Republican voters nominated Justin Heap for the office.

Heap's a pure ideologue, and the next time reality is more relevant to him than his beliefs will be the first time.

People who value clean voting and clean document keeping should donate to and vote for Tim Stringham.

Primary results are in

There were a few upsets, but not many; most of the "upsets" were in the gap between candidates, not in the final results.

Notes:

The results for federal and legislative races are from the Arizona Secretary of State.

The results for Maricopa County races (designated with an "MC") are from the Maricopa County Recorder's office.

All results are preliminary; vote totals may change, but in most races, I don't expect the final order to change.

Lastly, there were other primaries and/or other candidates not included here.

Candidate Office Party Percent

Kari Lake US Sen R 55.23

Mark Lamb US Sen R 39.41

Amish Shah CD1 D 23.93

Andrei Cherny CD1 D 21.41

Marlene Galan-Woods CD1 D 20.89

Conor O'Callaghan CD1 D 18.44

Andrew Horne CD1 D 12.27

Kurt Kroemer CD1 D 3.08

Yassamin Ansari CD3 D 46

Raquel Teran CD3 D 42.9

Juan Ciscomani CD6 R 59.4

Kathleen Winn CD6 R 40.6

Abe Hamadeh CD8 R 29.83

Blake Masters CD8 R 25.32

Ben Toma CD8 R 21.23

Trent Franks CD8 R 16.54

Anthony Kern CD8 R 4.74

Mark Finchem LD1 Sen R 47.1

Ken Bennett LD1 Sen R 34.3

Wendy Rogers LD7 Sen R 54.91

David Cook LD7 Sen R 45.09

Walt Blackman LD7 Rep R 27.44

David Marshall LD7 Rep R 24.53

Steven Slaton LD7 Rep R 14.1

Janeen Connolly LD8 Rep D 34

Brian Garcia LD8 Rep D 33.91

Juan Mendez LD8 Rep D 32.08

Vince Leach LD17 Sen R 51.63

Justine Wadsack LD17 Sen R 48.37

Eva Diaz LD22 Sen D 76.1

Leezah Sun LD22 Sen D 23.9

Analise Ortiz LD24 Sen D 86.3

Mario Garcia LD24 Sen D 13.7

Tyler Kamp MC Sheriff D 54.87

Russ Skinner MC Sheriff D 45.13

Jerry Sheridan MC Sheriff R 51.28

Frank Milstead MC Sheriff R 27.82

Mike Crawford MC Sheriff R 20.9

Mark Stewart MC SD1 R 65.24

Jack Sellers MC SD1 R 34.76

Thomas Galvin MC SD2 R 57.16

Michelle Ugenti-Rita MC SD2 R 42.84

Rachel Mitchell MC Attorney R 57.58

Gina Godbehere MC Attorney R 42.42

Justin Heap MC Recorder R 42.45

Stephen Richer MC Recorder R 35.76

Don Hiatt MC Recorder R 21.78

Not sure what it means, but the incumbent Maricopa County Recorder, Stephen Richer, was unseated in the primary.

Former state legislator Michelle Ugenti-Rita got thumped in her quest for a seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

Incumbent MCBOS member Jack Sellers lost quest for re-election.  Not sure what happened here.

Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp will face off for Maricopa County Sheriff in November.

Democrat Analise Ortiz thoroughly trounced faux Democrat Mario Garcia in the race for LD24 Senator.

Democrat Eva Diaz easily beat disgraced former legislator Leezah Sun in the race for LD22 Senator

Republican Vince Leach defeated controversial incumbent Justine Wadsack in the primary for LD17 Senator.

In the one real upset, and the one race where late counted votes may change the outcome, termed out incumbent Senator Juan Mendez was foiled in his quest to switch chambers in the LD8 Democratic primary.  In those races, the top two vote-getters are considered to be the victors, but he's currently in third.

In the race for LD7 State Representative, Republican Steven Slaton, who faced accusations that he inflated his military service, finished a distant third.

In the race for LD7 State Senator, antisemite Republican Wendy Rogers looks to have turned back a challenge from David Cook.

In the race for LD1 State Senator, former legislator Mark Finchem has deposed incumbent Ken Bennett.  Both are well known election deniers, but Bennett may be the less insane of the two.

In CD8, Abe Hamadeh has won the R primary there.  Since that district is heavily Republican, we'll end up with another lousy human being in Arizona's delegation to Congress.  The best thing about the result is that Peter Theil (Blake Masters' sugar daddy) may stop trying to buy a federal office from AZ.

In CD1,  former legislator Amish Shah is ahead in the race the challenge incumbent David Schweikert (R-Ethically Challenged) in November.

And lastly, Kari Lake has emerged from the R primary for US Senator, earning the chance to face off against Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in November.

His best chance is if Lake keeps being herself.

The best thing for Tim Stringham in his quest to be county recorder might be for Stephen Richer to lose in the Republican primary

Richer is the current Maricopa County Recorder.

I spent some time watching the R debate for Maricopa County Recorder, sponsored by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission and the Arizona Media Association.

Richer seems, well, "competent."

Justin Heap, a current state legislator, was simply a conspiracy theory-spouting hot mess.

However, the other R primary candidate, Donald Hiatt, made Heap seem polished and well-rounded.

During his opening statement, at the 6:04 mark, he conflated the Ten Commandments with the U.S. Constitution.

And things went downhill from there.

In his defense, he did frequently point out that he is not a politician.

It showed.

If R voters like vagueness, they'll vote for Heap or Hiatt.

Stringham is probably hoping they do.

Dear Democratic primary voters in LD8: Please write in Lauren Kuby for state senate

Failed candidate David Alger fronted a legal challenge to the one Democratic candidate for state senate in LD8, Rep. Melody Hernandez.

It was successful, in that she withdrew from the race, leaving the Democratic ballot in that district with no candidate for the state senate seat on the ballot.

One person has stepped into the gap. - Lauren Kuby, a former member of the Tempe City Council and long-time community activist.

I don't expect everyone to agree with me on everything (they should though, as I'm always right,  Just ask me. :) )

However, I do expect that all of my elected officials to be decent and honorable human beings, and Lauren falls squarely into that category. 

As she's running as a write-in candidate, she'll need at least 405 people to write her name on their primary ballots in order for her to appear on the general election ballot.

And she easily deserves that.

Note: I've linked to her campaign website on the sidebar to the right.  If you can donate to her campaign, please do so.

Maricopa County primary candidates for 2024

Note: this is based only on signatures submitted and could (and probably will) be changed by legal challenges.

From Maricopa County's list of primary candidates -

Note2: The "Signatures Needed" column info is from Maricopa County here.

All countywide seats have challengers (which is a good thing for democracy) and only one race will be decided in the primary as all candidates for that office are from one party (County Treasurer with only two Republican candidates)

The 2026 election cycle has already started; some potential candidates have already filed statements of interest for offices up for election then.  Countywide offices up for election will be this year so the statements of interest for 2026 are only for constable and JP races.  So far.

Note3: Just because a candidate expresses "interest" in a particular race doesn't mean that they will be on a ballot.

Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.

Committee update

This is about committees formed not placement on a ballot.  I'll do another of these posts when ballots come out.

This is not meant to be a comprehensive list; the people listed are people I have something to say about.  This is not intended as a slight toward the others, some of whom will win their races.  I just have nothing to say about them at this point.

Lesko is a former member (actually, she's a current member but isn't running for reelection this year) of Congress and the AZ state lege.

Heap is a current member of the state lege, and shockingly (OK, not really shocking news here) he has ethical issues.

Skinner was appointed as Maricopa County Sheriff and is now running for a full term.

Kamp is a former police officer and is running for a term as county sheriff.

Grove is a failed 2022 candidate for AZ AG, losing in the primary to eventual gen election loser Abe Hamadeh.

Arizona Presidential Primary Candidates

On December 18, 2024, the Arizona Secretary of State was supposed to hold a lottery to determine the order of names on the ballots for the Presidential Preference Elections (PPE) -

The results of that  haven't been posted as yet, but an alphabetized list of PPE candidates has been -

A more user-friendly list of candidates is here.

One item of note: no non-major party candidates will be on primary ballots here in AZ.

Federal Committee update - Oops on my part edition

Well, almost..

First, the update -

Initially, I thought this was a misfile on the candidate's part as I thought he's running for a seat in the AZ Senate.  However, I've seen his introduction video and he's actually running for U.S. Senate.

Normally, I wouldn't cover a quixotic candidate (I believe that he's got a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July...of winning that primary) except for his (apparent) oopsie.

Ummmm...U.S. Senate seats are statewide seats, not districted.

Federal Committees update

No real surprises here, though there is some scary unbridled optimism presented.

Franks forming a committee in no surprise, as he's already announced that he's seeking to be elected to the seat (CD8) he resigned from in disgrace.

Republican Becker was a 2022 primary candidate for the CD7 seat held by Democrat Raul Grijalva.  She lost in the primary then but WAS adjudicated to be competent...to assist in her own defense.

She's seeking the seat again, but even R voters may not want that to be the primary qualification of one of their candidates.

The middle two are PACs which I don't normally cover here, but they share two things with Kari Lake's primary candidate committee -

1. The treasurer, Bradley Crate.

2. The mailing address.  From the FEC - 

My only question is a rather cynical one - how much of the money raised through the PACs will be funneled to Cheeto's defense team?