Election postmortem

Yes, I realize that this benefits from 20/20 hindsight.

1. Joe Biden should have stepped well before any Democratic primary/caucus.  The eventual nominee (who I will presume would have been Vice President Kamala Harris) would have benefited from getting their campaign and messaging in order *before* the general election period.  As it was, the campaign seemed rushed.

2. Speaking of messaging, abortion rights wasn't the wrong message, but making it the *only* message was.  America is a complicated place that faces many issues and ceding economic and immigration issues to Republican-generated lies was a mistake.  Ruben Gallego was the only Democrat to win a high-profile race in AZ, and it helped him to define himself before his opponent, Kari Lake, started spreading lies about him (of course, it also helped that everyone who meets her intensely dislikes her).  She did lie, a LOT, but the message was already out.

Going forward, that might be something for Democratic candidates (and their consultants) to keep in mind.

3. None of this changes the most disheartening fact - there are literally millions of Americans who would rather support, and vote for, an utterly vile human being, so long as the vile person is male, and his opponent is female.

Even if they're being lied to, and know it.  So long as the lies are what to hear, they'll choose to believe the lies,

I don't have a "should" to address this.

Someone should get a message to Kari Lake

And the gist of that message should be: "Please go away."

Over the last couple of days, I've received four email messages from Kari Lake.

The voters have spoken, twice (in 2022 and 2024), and both times, they have thoroughly rejected her. 

Yet, she still insists that her shortfall in votes is due to illegal votes, and only "legal" ones are counted, she'll win.

She doesn't define "legal", but one thing is clear.  She want lots of money.

From one email -

From another -

She's rapidly devolving to "perennial candidate" status, and she'll go there if she feels that's the best way for her to keep the grift going.

Is deputy dog catcher an elected position?

She's baaaaack

During my "Predictions" post, I observed that Republican US Senate nominee Kari Lake was basically off the air and her last few ads were short and apocalyptic, strongly tying her to Cheeto.

Well, I saw one of her spots today. 

It was still short and apocalyptic; this one featured Cheeto disdainfully mispronouncing the last name of her opponent, Congressman Ruben Gallego.

My guess (and it's only that - this may shock some readers [or not :) ] but I'm not exactly a Lake campaign insider) is that she's hoarding her remaining funds to be expended during, and during the run up to, Election Day.  While early voting is very important, a significant number of votes will be cast then.

A single word can be sooooo descriptive

Both articles are from last week.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake’s whiffed attack over Gallego’s divorce puts her campaign further in the gutter

Kari Lake’s last-ditch effort to slime Ruben Gallego in the lead-up to Election Day landed with a dud.

Lake had been hyping up an effort by The Washington Free Beacon, a right-wing media outlet, to pry loose documents related to Gallego’s divorce from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

Although the Gallegos have publicly been amicable since their split, Lake and other conservatives have homed in on the fact that their divorce came as Kate Gallego was pregnant, and the fishing expedition has seemed intent on finding details that could be used to sling mud at Gallego. Lake has run ads referring to Gallego as a “deadbeat dad” and last week promised that a “massive story” was on the horizon.

On the same topic, from KPNX (12 News Phoenix), written by Kevin Reagan -

Here's what we found in Ruben Gallego's divorce records

A heavily-redacted version of U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego's divorce papers released Thursday revealed little new information about the dissolution of his marriage to Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

After the Arizona Supreme Court denied a motion to keep the Gallego divorce records sealed, a 465-page document was published by Yavapai County Superior Court that included several redactions regarding how the Gallegos split custody of their son, how they split their assets, and their child support agreement.

 

I've got one word to describe the Gallego's divorce proceeding record -

Boring.

I've got one word to describe Kari Lake and her surrogates -

Despicable.

(That word was used by Tony Cani on KTVK's Politics Unplugged, but I was there even before I heard it from him.)

The Gallego-Lake debate is on TV right now.

Just a guess here, but Lake probably won't win any new voters with her performance.

She seems mean, petty, and ill-informed (she repeatedly referred to IVF [In Vitro Fertilization] as "UVF", which is the acronym for Ulster Volunteer Force or University of Valley Forge).

Just when you believe they can't get any lower, Kari Lake give a stump speech in front of a Confederate flag

From The Guardian (UK) -

Revealed: Trump ally Kari Lake gave speech in front of Confederate flag

Video shows Arizona Senate candidate repeating election-fraud claims at event with Confederate flag behind her

The Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake addressed supporters with a Confederate flag displayed behind her during a campaign event at a Trump merchandise store in Arizona last week, where she repeated false claims about election fraud.

In footage obtained by the Guardian, Lake is seen speaking into a microphone, surrounded by a group of supporters, at the Trumped Store in Show Low, Arizona. Behind her, a Confederate battle flag and a yellow “Don’t Tread On Me” flag are affixed to the wall. Both flags are available for purchase on the website of Trumped Store, which sells an array of merchandise with the former president’s name and likeness.

I admit it - I've got nothing to add here.

Mark Lamb, R candidate for U.S. Senate, has a rather "flexible" relationship with telling the truth

That's something he shares with Cheeto.

Of course, that may not help much in that primary - his opponent there, Kari Lake, is also afflicted by the same character flaw.

He appeared on channel 12's Sunday Square Off this morning, ostensibly to respond to Kari Lake's claim the he's a coward (his response: "No, I'm not"), but mostly because he's thought to be rising in the polls in that race, probably because of Lake's utter despicability as a person.

Lamb may be more likeable, but he's no better a human being than Lake.

He started off by claiming that the jury verdict convicting Cheeto of 34 felonies was due to "unequal justice."

Later, he went on to prove that there's an unequal system of justice in the U.S. by urging the deportation of 15-20 million people, presumably without 15-20 million trials.

He also continued propagating the right-wing trope that that judge in Cheeto's criminal trial instructed the jury that they didn't have to be unanimous in finding him guilty.  That's false.

He also tried to say that  election denialism it a bipartisan thing by citing Hillary Clinton and Stacy Abrams.  He lied.

He said frequently that "the border"/illegal immigration was the biggest issue facing the U.S. and as his job is to protect his community in Pinal County (he's the sheriff in Pinal County), he's going to "work the border."  There's one problem with that.  Miles of Pinal County that border another country: 0.

He also claimed that fentanyl overdoses were the leading cause of death in the U.S.  However, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, the leading cause of death for Americans in 2022 (the most recent year for which data is available) was heart disease at over 702K deaths.  Yet, according to the National Institutes of Health National Institute on Drug Abuse, there were just under 108K overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2022.

He also stated that crime was rising in the U.S..  It isn't.  Not even close..

His penchant for lying may help him in the Republican primary, but no matter who emerges from that primary, everyone should vote for Ruben Gallego in the general election.

Pic taken from his website

Poll: Gallego leading Lake

Though in AZ, Biden vs. Trump is too close to call.

Pointed at this by fivethirtyeight.com.

I saw this today, and, while I firmly believe that when it comes to elections, there's only one poll that counts (and it's held in November, this poll is current enough to merit a post.

From fivethirtyeight -

The poll in question is from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and from and Mainstreet Research.

From FAU's press release -

BATTLEGROUND STATES NEVADA AND ARIZONA TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Click here for Full Crosstabs and Other Products From FAU/Mainstreet

Download Nevada Report

Download Arizona Report

With the 2024 election cycle fast approaching, new polling data from Nevada and Arizona reveal a deeply engaged and starkly divided electorate in these pivotal battleground states.

The FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research polls highlight the intense partisan polarization and motivations driving voter sentiment, including economic concerns, the legal proceedings against former U.S. President Donald Trump, and the potential entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third-party candidate.

[snip]

Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, is currently outperforming incumbent Republican Gov. Kari Lake (44% to 37%) suggesting that Lake has had a difficult time getting traction in this race.

Like Trump, Lake is leading only with voters under age 49, and more than 20% of voters in that age bracket indicate they are still undecided. The close numbers forecasting a fight for control of the House in Arizona underscore how the congressional generic ballot highlights the intense battle being waged across the state’s districts.

According to the full survey report, Gallego has a 7% lead among registered voters and an 8% lead among likely voters.

One note about the press release: it cites Lake as the incumbent governor.  She's not.  She was the 2022 R nominee for AZGov. She just wishes she was governor, and has filed lawsuits to overturn the results.  None of those have been successful in overturning the election; of course, that may not have been the real purpose of the lawsuits.

Her rubes supporters have sent her a lot of money based on her claims.

Kari Lake goes ballistic over U.S. aid to Ukraine

No word on if Dear Leader was pulling her strings on behalf of Vlad, or if Vlad was doing it directly.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake Loses it Over House Passing Ukraine Aid, Reps. Waving Ukraine Flags on House Floor: ‘I Don’t Know What Country I’m in Anymore!’

Kari Lake teed off after the House passed a $95 billion aid package which included significant funding for Ukraine.

Appearing on Newsmax Saturday, the Arizona Senate candidate blasted the representatives who waved Ukraine flags on the House floor after voting to pass the aid package by a strong margin. The Ukraine component of the bill — which allocated $60 billion — passed by a vote of 311-112, meaning nearly half of House Republicans were on board.

Dear Ms. Lake:

You're in the United States.

Me just trying to help.

Short attention span musing - democracy isn't for dilettantes edition

- If, in 2019, someone told me that our election center should nicknamed "Fortress Democracy." I would have laughed.

Then 2020 happened.

From AP -

Arizona expects to be back at the center of election attacks. Its top officials are going on offense

The room sits behind a chain-link fence, then black iron gates. Guards block the entrance, which requires a security badge to access. The glass surrounding it is shatterproof.

What merits all these layers of protection is somewhat surprising: tabulating machines that count the votes during elections in Arizona’s Maricopa County. The security measures are a necessary expense, said the county recorder, Stephen Richer, as Arizona and its largest county have become hotbeds of election misinformation and conspiracy theories that have led to near continuous threats and harassment against election workers.

[snip]

The false claims, promoted by prominent Republicans such as presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump and Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, have driven protesters to rally outside vote-counting centers and to patrol drop boxes. The claims have fueled death threats against election workers and their families and prompted top election officials to quit across Arizona.

The battleground state also has become a target for attacks from election meddlers and other bad actors who repeatedly attempt to hack or disable the state’s electronic systems, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said.

- It seems that throwing ideological bombs is preferable to actually, you know, governing.  At least it is for certain people..

From The Independent (UK) -

Marjorie Taylor Greene insists she doesn’t want ‘chaos’ after second threat to oust House Speaker

Marjorie Taylor Greene has defended her bid to oust Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson - after threatening to do so in January - and insisted that she was not seeking to throw the government into “chaos”.

The Georgia representative and other far right members of the House opposed the $1.2trn federal spending package that passed Congress this past week, and claimed that it was full of wasteful spending.

She denounced Mr Johnson as “willing to do the bidding of [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer”.

[snip]

Ms Greene denied that the House’s paralysis is due to far-right conservatives, or the second effort to oust a speaker in six months.

“Those people stepping down early and leaving, are the ones leaving us at risk of the Democrats controlling the majority, not me,” the congresswoman said.

She's not the only GOPer in the House who is ticked at Johnson over the budget deal.

- It seems redundant to make a deep fake video about a dilettante, but it sure can be entertaining.

From Arizona Agenda, written by Hank Stephenson -

Hey Agenda readers!

We have a very special announcement today. 

To our great surprise, Kari Lake, the former newscaster turned political candidate and frequent subject of our derision, offered to film a testimonial about how much she likes the Arizona Agenda. 

[snip]

At least, did you spot it before she told you?

Or — like most people that we’ve shown this to — did it take a second for your brain to catch up even after our “Deep Fake Kari Lake” told you she was fake?

 

Many commentators/outlets have bemoaned the effect of deep fake videos on politics.

My concern is the effect of AI-generated videos on credibility; nobody will be able to believe what they see.

And while I believe that the destruction of credibility, especially institutional credibility, is an end goal of MAGA types, it will go far beyond politics.

Can you say "reasonable doubt"?

Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.

Rats fleeing the sinking ship: the Lake/DeWit "scandal" continues to unfold

The word scandal is in quotes because, to the best of my knowledge (I'm not an attorney), nothing that DeWit did was illegal.

First, from BusinessInsider -

Kari Lake just successfully pushed out Arizona's top Republican Party official after he allegedly tried to bribe her to stay out of politics

The chairman of the Arizona Republican Party resigned on Wednesday, alleging the GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake all but forced him into doing so.

On Tuesday, the Daily Mail published a 10-minute audio recording in which Jeff DeWit, the party chairman who's served for just under a year, appears to bribe Lake into staying out of politics for two years.

[snip]

Lake, apparently recording the in-person interaction herself, can be heard repeatedly rejecting the entreaties, saying she wouldn't even do it for $1 billion.

The rats, including the biggest one himself, are falling all over themselves to avoid AZ.

From AZ Family, written by Ben Bradley -

Trump no longer coming to Arizona; AZGOP Freedom Fest canceled

Former President Donald Trump will no longer be coming to Arizona this week, where he was scheduled to speak during a GOP rally Friday evening in Phoenix. The AZGOP Freedom Fest has also been canceled, an Arizona Republican Party spokesperson confirmed to Arizona’s Family.

Trump was scheduled to be the keynote speaker at the event. Other speakers who were scheduled to appear included Congress members Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh, Charlie Kirk and Tyler Bowyer. Tickets to the event were sold through eventbrite, and a state GOP spokesperson says refunds will be issued.

Maybe Lake should learn a lesson from another AZ Republican who recorded things.

From TPM, dated June 21, 2012 -

Arizona Lobbyist Suspected Of Working For FBI Asked To Leave GOP Fundraiser

A lobbyist suspected of working for the feds in an FBI corruption sting was asked to leave a fundraiser for two state Republicans that was attended by Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin (R), TPM has learned.

Lobbyist Mike Williams, who is suspected of being involved in a wide-ranging corruption probe of Arizona politicians which has already ensnared Rep. Ben Arredondo, was asked to leave a June 18 fundraiser by lobbyist Stan Barnes, who was hosting the event at his firm Copper State Consulting Group in Phoenix. Donations at the “M-Squared Fundraser” went to Republican state Sen. Michele Reagan and Republican state Rep. Michelle Ugenti, while Tobin was a special guest.

Note: Williams is still a lobbyist registered with the Arizona Secretary of State.

"Shunning" is a time-honored tactic for Republicans when dealing with one of their own who records things, so in the long run, this may help Mark Lamb in the AZ Senate R primary* and Ruben Gallego in the general**.

* = I still believe that Lake will ultimately be the R nominee.  This may help Lamb get closer, but it won't put him over the top.  On the other hand, she still has a lot of time to make more mistakes.

** = I still believe that Gallego will win in the general election, but it won't be a walkover.  This helps, though.

AZGOP chair Dewit tries to get candidate Lake to go away, gets caught, resigns

Evidently, DeWit is the one going away.

From KNXV (emphasis added by me)- 

Arizona GOP head Jeff DeWit stepping down after leaked audio tapes

DeWit accuses Kari Lake of orchestrating the tapes to take control over the state party

The head of the Arizona GOP is stepping down after audio tapes with U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake were released, where he reportedly offered Lake money to stay out of this year's senate race to focus on running for governor.

Chairman Jeff DeWit released a statement Wednesday where he adamantly denied Lake's accusation, but he also announced his resignation in the statement.

Trying to have it both ways?

That's *so* Republican.

As a Democrat, I have two things to say about this -

1. I don't want Kari Lake to go away; I think that she's a drag on their entire ticket.

2. I absolutely love the shitshow that the AZGOP has become; it's popcorn-riffic.

Fasten your seatbelts: 2023 was an interesting year but just a prelude to the bumpy ride that will be 2024

I know that it's early and later writers will do summaries that are both longer and less Maricopa County-centric.

Having said that, there are a number of developments in the political world here in AZ in 2023 that will have effects in 2024.

1. It started in 2022 (actually, it may have started before that when it became obvious that she was a lousy US Senator, but it become official in 2022), but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's  change from the Democratic Party to Unaffiliated has set up a 2024 election race that involves Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (I'm not predicting that she will win her primary, but as of now, I'm presuming that she will be the nominee) and, perhaps, Sinema herself (if she mounts a third party run).

From CNBC, dated 12/9/2022 -

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party to become

 

independent

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has switched parties to become an independent, complicating the Democrats’ narrow control of the U.S. Senate.

Sinema said in a tweet Friday that she was declaring her “independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent.”

It's a statewide race, but since Maricopa County has ~60% of the state's population and registered voters, the race is considered to be Maricopa-centric.

2. The decision by Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to not seek re-election in 2024.  Her decision has set off a massive primary battle for north/northwestern Maricopa County district.  Not every R running for the seat actually lives in the district, but that's not required per the US Constitution and since this is a safe R seat, no R candidate will pass this one by.

I'm actually a little surprised that former Phoenix city council member Sal DiCiccio and perennial candidate Rodney Glassman haven't jumped into the race.

On the other hand, it's early yet. :)

From AP, dated 10/17/2023 -

US Rep. Debbie Lesko won’t seek re-election in Arizona next year

U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko announced Tuesday that she will not run for office next year.

The Arizona Republican has decided to spend more time with family.

In a statement, Lesko, 64, said traveling every month to Washington, D.C. has been difficult and that “D.C. is broken.”

None of the Rs running to replace will "unbreak" D.C.

3. The announcement by Democrat Paul Penzone that not only will he not seek re-election as Maricopa County Sheriff in 2024, he'll resign from the job in January.

From Arizona's Family, written by their digital news staff and Micaela Marshall, dated 10/2/2023 -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

As off this writing, only three committees are open for a run at the office - one by Penzone himself, one by Joe Arpaio, the man Penzone defeated in 2016 (but that committee is very old and may not be intended for a run in 2024) and one by Jerry Sheridan, a former Arpaio henchman/deputy.  However, he formed his committee well before Penzone's announcement.  He was going to run regardless of everything else.

4. The first three items listed are "horse race" matters and will receive scads of attention from the MSM, if only because they're easy to report on.

However, while not as easy to report on, the next issue may be more significant.  It's about how races are run. I've listed it here at #4, but it may end up being the most significant issue in 2024.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/26/2023 -

98% of Arizonans will have new elections officials in 2024, report finds

Arizona has lost nearly all of its experienced election officials and 98% of the state will have new officials running elections in 2024 than ran the 2020 elections, a new report found. 

The Grand Canyon State has been center stage for election misinformation since 2020, with efforts such as the Arizona Senate Republicans’ “audit” of the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake’s continuing efforts to overturn her 2022 loss in the race for governor.

The state has also seen threats of violence towards election officials and those who help administer elections. Five recent cases from the U.S. Department of Justice were all from Arizona that included individuals who called for election officials to be killed and in some areas, such as in Yavapai County, one official ended up needing security from the local sheriff at their home.

This isn't just an Arizona problem, it's a national one.  

From The Union of Concerned Scientists' The Equation, dated 10/18/2023 -

2024 Election Workers Need Better Protection from Harassment

Most election workers are probably like my late mother-in-law. Mary Holmes spent many of her senior years volunteering at the polls in Cambridge, MA. She considered this work a part of her civic duty, just as she had decades earlier when she volunteered as a school traffic guard.  

She never voiced a moment of fear, either from motorists who respected her waving of arms and her reflective vest, or from voters, many of whom hurriedly hustled in and out of the ballot box on their way to work or on the way home from work to dinner. I cannot recall anything specific she ever said about this work. It was just what you did in a community. Her many years of service spoke for themselves about her pride in playing a seemingly small role in democracy.

We’ve learned more in recent years about how large a role she actually played. The mobs of January 6, 2021 and the malevolent harassment of election workers and officials all over the nation by deniers of the 2020 defeat of former President Donald Trump have left this slice of democracy on an unprecedented precipice. According to a report released last month by Issue One, a nonpartisan democracy think tank, roughly 40 percent of chief local elections officials in 11 western states have left their posts since the 2020 election.

The Issue One report referenced in both articles is here.