Kari Lake goes ballistic over U.S. aid to Ukraine

No word on if Dear Leader was pulling her strings on behalf of Vlad, or if Vlad was doing it directly.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake Loses it Over House Passing Ukraine Aid, Reps. Waving Ukraine Flags on House Floor: ‘I Don’t Know What Country I’m in Anymore!’

Kari Lake teed off after the House passed a $95 billion aid package which included significant funding for Ukraine.

Appearing on Newsmax Saturday, the Arizona Senate candidate blasted the representatives who waved Ukraine flags on the House floor after voting to pass the aid package by a strong margin. The Ukraine component of the bill — which allocated $60 billion — passed by a vote of 311-112, meaning nearly half of House Republicans were on board.

Dear Ms. Lake:

You're in the United States.

Me just trying to help.

Short attention span musing - democracy isn't for dilettantes edition

- If, in 2019, someone told me that our election center should nicknamed "Fortress Democracy." I would have laughed.

Then 2020 happened.

From AP -

Arizona expects to be back at the center of election attacks. Its top officials are going on offense

The room sits behind a chain-link fence, then black iron gates. Guards block the entrance, which requires a security badge to access. The glass surrounding it is shatterproof.

What merits all these layers of protection is somewhat surprising: tabulating machines that count the votes during elections in Arizona’s Maricopa County. The security measures are a necessary expense, said the county recorder, Stephen Richer, as Arizona and its largest county have become hotbeds of election misinformation and conspiracy theories that have led to near continuous threats and harassment against election workers.

[snip]

The false claims, promoted by prominent Republicans such as presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump and Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, have driven protesters to rally outside vote-counting centers and to patrol drop boxes. The claims have fueled death threats against election workers and their families and prompted top election officials to quit across Arizona.

The battleground state also has become a target for attacks from election meddlers and other bad actors who repeatedly attempt to hack or disable the state’s electronic systems, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said.

- It seems that throwing ideological bombs is preferable to actually, you know, governing.  At least it is for certain people..

From The Independent (UK) -

Marjorie Taylor Greene insists she doesn’t want ‘chaos’ after second threat to oust House Speaker

Marjorie Taylor Greene has defended her bid to oust Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson - after threatening to do so in January - and insisted that she was not seeking to throw the government into “chaos”.

The Georgia representative and other far right members of the House opposed the $1.2trn federal spending package that passed Congress this past week, and claimed that it was full of wasteful spending.

She denounced Mr Johnson as “willing to do the bidding of [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer”.

[snip]

Ms Greene denied that the House’s paralysis is due to far-right conservatives, or the second effort to oust a speaker in six months.

“Those people stepping down early and leaving, are the ones leaving us at risk of the Democrats controlling the majority, not me,” the congresswoman said.

She's not the only GOPer in the House who is ticked at Johnson over the budget deal.

- It seems redundant to make a deep fake video about a dilettante, but it sure can be entertaining.

From Arizona Agenda, written by Hank Stephenson -

Hey Agenda readers!

We have a very special announcement today. 

To our great surprise, Kari Lake, the former newscaster turned political candidate and frequent subject of our derision, offered to film a testimonial about how much she likes the Arizona Agenda. 

[snip]

At least, did you spot it before she told you?

Or — like most people that we’ve shown this to — did it take a second for your brain to catch up even after our “Deep Fake Kari Lake” told you she was fake?

 

Many commentators/outlets have bemoaned the effect of deep fake videos on politics.

My concern is the effect of AI-generated videos on credibility; nobody will be able to believe what they see.

And while I believe that the destruction of credibility, especially institutional credibility, is an end goal of MAGA types, it will go far beyond politics.

Can you say "reasonable doubt"?

Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.

Rats fleeing the sinking ship: the Lake/DeWit "scandal" continues to unfold

The word scandal is in quotes because, to the best of my knowledge (I'm not an attorney), nothing that DeWit did was illegal.

First, from BusinessInsider -

Kari Lake just successfully pushed out Arizona's top Republican Party official after he allegedly tried to bribe her to stay out of politics

The chairman of the Arizona Republican Party resigned on Wednesday, alleging the GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake all but forced him into doing so.

On Tuesday, the Daily Mail published a 10-minute audio recording in which Jeff DeWit, the party chairman who's served for just under a year, appears to bribe Lake into staying out of politics for two years.

[snip]

Lake, apparently recording the in-person interaction herself, can be heard repeatedly rejecting the entreaties, saying she wouldn't even do it for $1 billion.

The rats, including the biggest one himself, are falling all over themselves to avoid AZ.

From AZ Family, written by Ben Bradley -

Trump no longer coming to Arizona; AZGOP Freedom Fest canceled

Former President Donald Trump will no longer be coming to Arizona this week, where he was scheduled to speak during a GOP rally Friday evening in Phoenix. The AZGOP Freedom Fest has also been canceled, an Arizona Republican Party spokesperson confirmed to Arizona’s Family.

Trump was scheduled to be the keynote speaker at the event. Other speakers who were scheduled to appear included Congress members Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane, as well as U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh, Charlie Kirk and Tyler Bowyer. Tickets to the event were sold through eventbrite, and a state GOP spokesperson says refunds will be issued.

Maybe Lake should learn a lesson from another AZ Republican who recorded things.

From TPM, dated June 21, 2012 -

Arizona Lobbyist Suspected Of Working For FBI Asked To Leave GOP Fundraiser

A lobbyist suspected of working for the feds in an FBI corruption sting was asked to leave a fundraiser for two state Republicans that was attended by Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin (R), TPM has learned.

Lobbyist Mike Williams, who is suspected of being involved in a wide-ranging corruption probe of Arizona politicians which has already ensnared Rep. Ben Arredondo, was asked to leave a June 18 fundraiser by lobbyist Stan Barnes, who was hosting the event at his firm Copper State Consulting Group in Phoenix. Donations at the “M-Squared Fundraser” went to Republican state Sen. Michele Reagan and Republican state Rep. Michelle Ugenti, while Tobin was a special guest.

Note: Williams is still a lobbyist registered with the Arizona Secretary of State.

"Shunning" is a time-honored tactic for Republicans when dealing with one of their own who records things, so in the long run, this may help Mark Lamb in the AZ Senate R primary* and Ruben Gallego in the general**.

* = I still believe that Lake will ultimately be the R nominee.  This may help Lamb get closer, but it won't put him over the top.  On the other hand, she still has a lot of time to make more mistakes.

** = I still believe that Gallego will win in the general election, but it won't be a walkover.  This helps, though.

AZGOP chair Dewit tries to get candidate Lake to go away, gets caught, resigns

Evidently, DeWit is the one going away.

From KNXV (emphasis added by me)- 

Arizona GOP head Jeff DeWit stepping down after leaked audio tapes

DeWit accuses Kari Lake of orchestrating the tapes to take control over the state party

The head of the Arizona GOP is stepping down after audio tapes with U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake were released, where he reportedly offered Lake money to stay out of this year's senate race to focus on running for governor.

Chairman Jeff DeWit released a statement Wednesday where he adamantly denied Lake's accusation, but he also announced his resignation in the statement.

Trying to have it both ways?

That's *so* Republican.

As a Democrat, I have two things to say about this -

1. I don't want Kari Lake to go away; I think that she's a drag on their entire ticket.

2. I absolutely love the shitshow that the AZGOP has become; it's popcorn-riffic.

Fasten your seatbelts: 2023 was an interesting year but just a prelude to the bumpy ride that will be 2024

I know that it's early and later writers will do summaries that are both longer and less Maricopa County-centric.

Having said that, there are a number of developments in the political world here in AZ in 2023 that will have effects in 2024.

1. It started in 2022 (actually, it may have started before that when it became obvious that she was a lousy US Senator, but it become official in 2022), but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's  change from the Democratic Party to Unaffiliated has set up a 2024 election race that involves Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (I'm not predicting that she will win her primary, but as of now, I'm presuming that she will be the nominee) and, perhaps, Sinema herself (if she mounts a third party run).

From CNBC, dated 12/9/2022 -

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party to become

 

independent

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has switched parties to become an independent, complicating the Democrats’ narrow control of the U.S. Senate.

Sinema said in a tweet Friday that she was declaring her “independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent.”

It's a statewide race, but since Maricopa County has ~60% of the state's population and registered voters, the race is considered to be Maricopa-centric.

2. The decision by Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to not seek re-election in 2024.  Her decision has set off a massive primary battle for north/northwestern Maricopa County district.  Not every R running for the seat actually lives in the district, but that's not required per the US Constitution and since this is a safe R seat, no R candidate will pass this one by.

I'm actually a little surprised that former Phoenix city council member Sal DiCiccio and perennial candidate Rodney Glassman haven't jumped into the race.

On the other hand, it's early yet. :)

From AP, dated 10/17/2023 -

US Rep. Debbie Lesko won’t seek re-election in Arizona next year

U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko announced Tuesday that she will not run for office next year.

The Arizona Republican has decided to spend more time with family.

In a statement, Lesko, 64, said traveling every month to Washington, D.C. has been difficult and that “D.C. is broken.”

None of the Rs running to replace will "unbreak" D.C.

3. The announcement by Democrat Paul Penzone that not only will he not seek re-election as Maricopa County Sheriff in 2024, he'll resign from the job in January.

From Arizona's Family, written by their digital news staff and Micaela Marshall, dated 10/2/2023 -

Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January

Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.

“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.

As off this writing, only three committees are open for a run at the office - one by Penzone himself, one by Joe Arpaio, the man Penzone defeated in 2016 (but that committee is very old and may not be intended for a run in 2024) and one by Jerry Sheridan, a former Arpaio henchman/deputy.  However, he formed his committee well before Penzone's announcement.  He was going to run regardless of everything else.

4. The first three items listed are "horse race" matters and will receive scads of attention from the MSM, if only because they're easy to report on.

However, while not as easy to report on, the next issue may be more significant.  It's about how races are run. I've listed it here at #4, but it may end up being the most significant issue in 2024.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/26/2023 -

98% of Arizonans will have new elections officials in 2024, report finds

Arizona has lost nearly all of its experienced election officials and 98% of the state will have new officials running elections in 2024 than ran the 2020 elections, a new report found. 

The Grand Canyon State has been center stage for election misinformation since 2020, with efforts such as the Arizona Senate Republicans’ “audit” of the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake’s continuing efforts to overturn her 2022 loss in the race for governor.

The state has also seen threats of violence towards election officials and those who help administer elections. Five recent cases from the U.S. Department of Justice were all from Arizona that included individuals who called for election officials to be killed and in some areas, such as in Yavapai County, one official ended up needing security from the local sheriff at their home.

This isn't just an Arizona problem, it's a national one.  

From The Union of Concerned Scientists' The Equation, dated 10/18/2023 -

2024 Election Workers Need Better Protection from Harassment

Most election workers are probably like my late mother-in-law. Mary Holmes spent many of her senior years volunteering at the polls in Cambridge, MA. She considered this work a part of her civic duty, just as she had decades earlier when she volunteered as a school traffic guard.  

She never voiced a moment of fear, either from motorists who respected her waving of arms and her reflective vest, or from voters, many of whom hurriedly hustled in and out of the ballot box on their way to work or on the way home from work to dinner. I cannot recall anything specific she ever said about this work. It was just what you did in a community. Her many years of service spoke for themselves about her pride in playing a seemingly small role in democracy.

We’ve learned more in recent years about how large a role she actually played. The mobs of January 6, 2021 and the malevolent harassment of election workers and officials all over the nation by deniers of the 2020 defeat of former President Donald Trump have left this slice of democracy on an unprecedented precipice. According to a report released last month by Issue One, a nonpartisan democracy think tank, roughly 40 percent of chief local elections officials in 11 western states have left their posts since the 2020 election.

The Issue One report referenced in both articles is here.

Kari Lake may be saying good things trying to make nice with the folks she trashed last year. Her actions suggest that she hasn't really changed.

First up: The federal committee update.

It's official - failed AG candidate Abe Hamadeh is in the CD8 R primary.  He's formed a committee with the FEC.

Next: Kari Lake may be saying the right things, but she seems to be proving that when someone's words tell one story and their actions tell a different story.

The actions?

Working with another election denier.

From the FEC (emphasis added by me) -

Cynic that I am, I'm not sure that being seen as anti-democracy hurts her with the R base.

On the other hand, being seen as a liar may not help her.

Short Attention Span Musing - Popcorn Edition

...Kari Lake is looking to make nice with the same people that she trashed in 2022

From Politico -

Kari Lake ‘drove a stake’ through the heart of McCain Republicans. Now she wants a meeting.

Kari Lake is finally ready to move on from the 2022 election — or at least she wants her rivals to.

The Arizona Republican has given up — for now — the fire-and-brimstone approach she took in her failed gubernatorial bid last year, adopting a different tack in her current Senate campaign: diplomacy.

One thing in the article caught my attention (emphasis added by me) -

She has not made contact with former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, according to a person familiar with their interactions. And Sharon Harper, a consigliere for Cindy McCain, the widow of the late senator, said Lake has not reached out to her. Harper is fundraising for Sinema.

My guess is that many of the "traditional" Rs want to vote for Kyrsten Sinema, if she runs for re-election.  If she doesn't, those folks will be faced with two options that they won't like - voting for Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, or voting for Kari Lake, someone who openly despises them.

If Gallego can siphon off enough supporters, it may help him.

...If Lake wins election to the US Senate, she may be moving to a schoolyard...at a middle school. 

From The Oklahoman -

OK Sen. Markwayne Mullin defends Senate fight, tells Sean Hannity it's 'Oklahoma values'

U.S. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Oklahoma, said he believed Oklahomans "would be pretty upset" at him if he hadn't threatened a union leader to a fight during a senate hearing,

Mullin, 45, and Teamsters leader Sean O'Brien had a heated exchange during a senate hearing on labor unions, at the end of which Mullin asked O'Brien if he wanted to fight. Mullin even stood from his chair, but was stopped by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, who was chairing the hearing.

...In what may be the news of the week, a convicted felon is joining the clown car of the race to replace the outgoing Debbie Lesko in CD8.

From NBC -

'QAnon Shaman' who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 files paperwork to run for Congress

Jacob Chansley, the Arizona man who gained notoriety as the “QAnon Shaman” who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, filed paperwork to run for Congress as a Libertarian candidate in the battleground state’s 8th Congressional District.

Rep. Debbie Lesko, R-Ariz., announced last month that she won’t seek re-election.

Chansley cannot vote for a candidate for elected office as a convicted felon, but he *can* run for office.

One question: will he be in costume while on the campaign trail?  I'm guessing "Yes."

From the NBC story -

.

While he has yet to form an FEC committee for the run, at least not one that I can find, he has filed a statement of interest with the Arizona Secretary of State

That statement, emphasis added by me -

 

Federal Committees update

No real surprises here, though there is some scary unbridled optimism presented.

Franks forming a committee in no surprise, as he's already announced that he's seeking to be elected to the seat (CD8) he resigned from in disgrace.

Republican Becker was a 2022 primary candidate for the CD7 seat held by Democrat Raul Grijalva.  She lost in the primary then but WAS adjudicated to be competent...to assist in her own defense.

She's seeking the seat again, but even R voters may not want that to be the primary qualification of one of their candidates.

The middle two are PACs which I don't normally cover here, but they share two things with Kari Lake's primary candidate committee -

1. The treasurer, Bradley Crate.

2. The mailing address.  From the FEC - 

My only question is a rather cynical one - how much of the money raised through the PACs will be funneled to Cheeto's defense team?

Kyrsten Sinema: Even the NRSC thinks she's toast

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From NBCNews, emphasis added by me -

Head of Senate GOP campaign arm shows Republicans internal poll with Democrat leading in Arizona

At a closed-door meeting Tuesday, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines showed fellow GOP senators an internal poll of a three-way Arizona Senate race that found Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading with 41%, followed by Republican Kari Lake with 37% and independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema with 17%, said a source familiar with the meeting.

Notably, Daines told Republicans that Sinema is currently pulling more votes from Lake than she is from Gallego, despite her longtime affiliation with Democrats before she became an independent last year.

Actually, the highlighted section may be an incorrect statement.

From the Political Wire post -

In a head-to-head matchup, Gallego leads Lake 49% to 44%.

Based on that, with Sinema in the race, Gallego is leading by 4%; with her not running, he's leading by 5%.  Seems like that she's pulling votes from him, so the NRSC may be hoping that she runs for re-election.  She's not going to win, but her presence helps Lake.

Senate reports are in*

* = Kari Lake entered the race too late to have to file a report this time around.

Net contributions and refunds are for the reported quarter (Q3 2023) while cash on hand is for the end of the quarter.

A few takes:

Ruben Gallego is doing well.  He's got more than $5 million in cash on hand and the vastness of his filing (10K+ pages!) indicates that many of his contributions are from small donors.

Mark Lamb is toast now that Lake is in the race.

Sinema is an interesting case.  She raised the least amount of cash and has the smallest filing of the three.  She also has the most cash on hand; actually, she has more than twice the total of Gallego, who's doing well.

She may not be raising much, but she's stockpiling what she has.

My guess is that she has one of three plans in place for the money (there may be others, but these seem to be the most likely to me):.

1. She intends to run for re-election, and is saving the cash for that.

2. She has found a way, or hopes to find a way, to keep the money for herself.  There are restrictions against doing just that, but if anyone has the smarts to figure out a way around them, she's got 'em.

3. She intends to gift the cash to one of the other candidates (Lake?).  Given her track record, this seems to the least likely of the three.

Looking at her report (hoping for some insight), I was struck by two questions -

1. She's reporting all contributions as being for the primary. As an I, though, she's not going to face a primary.  On the other hand, their may be some arcane FEC rule on the subject and this may be an actual violation.

2. She's still fundraising through ActBlue.  I thought that was a platform only for Democratic candidates and committees, and she is resoundingly not one.

Another blast form the (recent) past: Kari Lake is running for a U.S. Senate seat

Last month, Axios thought this poorly-kept secret was a big deal; now, it's Politico.

Former newscaster and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Governor (she lost in the general election, even though she is still insisting that she didn't).

From Politico -

Kari Lake to launch Arizona Senate bid next month

Arizona Republican Kari Lake will launch a Senate run as soon as early next month, according to three people familiar with her plans.

Lake, an ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump who refused to concede her narrow loss in Arizona’s governor race last year, has been hinting at a bid for months. She has been active in national politics since her 2022 loss and this week alone she’s headlining events in Iowa and Michigan.

Masters rethinking a 2024 run for AZ's US Senate seat

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

By "rethinking" I mean "Peter Thiel's financial largesse has its limits and he has no wish to throw good money after bad...even in his quest to buy a Senate seat."

But that was too long for a headline, so... :)

From Vanity Fair -

Blake Masters Might Be Getting Cold Feet About A Second Run for Senate in Arizona: Report

Blake Masters, the far-right venture capitalist who ran and lost in a 2022 Senate election in Arizona, is having second thoughts about trying and potentially failing for a second time, The Daily Beast reported Sunday.

Toward the end of August, multiple outlets reported that Masters was virtually guaranteed to enter the race. An Arizona-based GOP strategist who’d spoken to Masters told Politico that he was “pretty decisively in.” Now—not so much.

Apparently, Cheeto told Masters that he wasn't going to defeat Cheeto's favored candidate, Kari Lake, but on this, I expect that Thiel has more influence with Masters.

Blake Masters is planning to do his part to make the 2024 R primary for US Senate more interesting

From Politico -

Blake Masters plans another Arizona Senate bid — this time for Sinema’s seat

Blake Masters is making plans to launch another Arizona Senate bid, potentially as soon as next week, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Masters did not reply to a request for comment. Masters won the GOP nomination last year but lost to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in a critical swing state.

Right now, I'm assuming that Kari Lake will get in the race, too, making the "Big 3" in the race for the R nomination Lake, Masters, and Mark Lamb, the sheriff in Pinal County.

Meaning that at least 3 Rs will be vying for the Bat Shit Crazy vote.

Unless one of them drops out or someone just as crazy as them gets in the race.  Both are possibilities.

Kari Lake thinks that lying about public officials is OK. Well, that explains her statements about Cheeto and the 2020 election

From AZ Mirror, written by Caitlin Sievers, dated 8/23/2023 -

Kari Lake says it doesn’t matter if she lied about Stephen Richer in bid to toss suit out

Failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake says that it doesn’t matter whether the statements she made about Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer are false and his defamation lawsuit against her should be tossed out of court because of a state law curtailing public officials from suing their critics. 

In a motion filed on Monday, Lake asked Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Jay Adleman to dismiss Richer’s suit because she says it violates Arizona’s Strategic Action Against Public Participation law, commonly referred to as an anti-SLAPP statute. 

Part of me actually hopes the court sides with her - I have a few things to say about certain legislators.

There have been too many bills that read like they were written by industry lobbyists and then given to a legislator to slap their name on as sponsor.

Of course, that's only part of me.  The other part of me thinks that she's full of it.

Criticism of a public official's job performance *is* protected (and should be), but lying about it isn't criticism of it.

Actually, equating lies to criticism serves only to devalue criticism.

Is petulant a good campaign look for Cheeto?

If so, he's got the R nomination locked up.

From CNN (and I presume, the Fulton County Sheriff's Office) -

Maybe someone should send this pic to Mark Finchem, Kari Lake, and all of Cheeto's other sycophants/apologists in AZ.

For that matter, perhaps Kelli Ward and the other fake electors should be added to that list.

Kari Lake is running for Senate; Axios is treating as big news, but as secrets go, it's a poorly kept one

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From Axios -

Scoop: Kari Lake prepares to enter Arizona Senate race

Former Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake is staffing up for a Senate campaign in anticipation of an October launch, making Arizona ground zero to replay — and relitigate — GOP losses in the last two elections.

Why it matters: A potential three-way battle, with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema running as an independent, will expose deep divisions in both parties on whether to appeal to their bases or independents in a critical 2024 battleground state.

• The race will have implications in the presidential campaign and give President Biden an opportunity to run against the "ultra MAGA" mindset that Lake represents, even if former President Trump isn't Biden's opponent in November 2024.
• Lake, who has not conceded her gubernatorial loss in 2022, is one of Trump's most ardent defenders and frequently amplifies the false election claims at the heart of the former president's most recent indictment.