Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Senate reports are in*

* = Kari Lake entered the race too late to have to file a report this time around.


Net contributions and refunds are for the reported quarter (Q3 2023) while cash on hand is for the end of the quarter.





A few takes:

Ruben Gallego is doing well.  He's got more than $5 million in cash on hand and the vastness of his filing (10K+ pages!) indicates that many of his contributions are from small donors.

Mark Lamb is toast now that Lake is in the race.

Sinema is an interesting case.  She raised the least amount of cash and has the smallest filing of the three.  She also has the most cash on hand; actually, she has more than twice the total of Gallego, who's doing well.

She may not be raising much, but she's stockpiling what she has.

My guess is that she has one of three plans in place for the money (there may be others, but these seem to be the most likely to me):.

1. She intends to run for re-election, and is saving the cash for that.

2. She has found a way, or hopes to find a way, to keep the money for herself.  There are restrictions against doing just that, but if anyone has the smarts to figure out a way around them, she's got 'em.

3. She intends to gift the cash to one of the other candidates (Lake?).  Given her track record, this seems to the least likely of the three.

Looking at her report (hoping for some insight), I was struck by two questions -







1. She's reporting all contributions as being for the primary. As an I, though, she's not going to face a primary.  On the other hand, their may be some arcane FEC rule on the subject and this may be an actual violation.

2. She's still fundraising through ActBlue.  I thought that was a platform only for Democratic candidates and committees, and she is resoundingly not one.


No comments: