Small dollar donations

Recently, the website VoteHub did an analysis showing a correlation between a candidate's number of small dollar donors and grassroots support for that candidate. While that correlation is NOT a guarantee of success, it seems to be more indicative of success than PAC or party contributions.

Elon Musk and other folks looking to buy themselves some elections just went into convulsions.

VoteHub's analysis was limited to federal races (while limited, it was very useful, and I hope they continue it in 2028).

I looked at certain statewide races, looking at small dollar donations received on or after 7/21/2026 (AZ's primary was on 7/21 so I presumed that anything received on or after that date was intended for general election use while anything from before that date was intended for primary election use),

No commentary, but no real surprises here.  All of the Democratic candidates had more small dollar donors than their Republican counterparts.

None of these were "easy", but looking at Andy Biggs' reports was a more difficult task than most - many of his reported contributions had amounts with numbers to the right of the decimal point and while I can do some basic math in my head, I have some difficulty with multiple numbers that don't end in .00.

Also, certain candidates mixed their dates (Kolodin, Biggs, Fontes).  While this wasn't a huge issue with their Q3 reports, their Post Primary reports (the ones covering 7/21) had to be examined very closely.

Q3 reports are in (federal edition)

 This will cover certain federal-level candidates.

Commentary:

This covers the races that I believe are even the least bit competitive.

CD5 (Lamb (R) v. Lee (D) ) shouldn't be on this list as it's an overwhelmingly red district, but he's so morally-challenged that he may be abandoned by LDS voters.

Feely is in trouble in CD1, so now he's taking money from (alleged) crooks

From AZMirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/15 (emphasis added by me) -

Criminal probe targets PAC funded by charter school management company

A political action committee founded by the head of one of Arizona’s largest charter school networks is facing a criminal investigation for allegedly violating campaign finance law by using funds from his company to donate directly to Republican candidates. 

Glenn Way is the CEO of Charter One LLC and the chairman of the Educational Freedom Fund PAC, which contributed $25,500 to Republican candidates for the Arizona House of Representatives and Senate in the 2022 and 2024 elections. 

[snip]

The Attorney General’s Office said its investigation into the Educational Freedom Fund is ongoing and declined to comment. 

Way's largesse doesn't benefit legislative candidates.

From an FEC filing from candidate Feely -

I don't recommend that anyone holds their breath while waiting for Feely and his campaign to return this particular contribution.

Q3 reports are in (statewide edition)

This will cover certain state-level candidates

Some commentary:

- R candidate for treasurer Elijah Norton is still trying to buy the office.

In Q3, he reported loaning his own campaign $1.225 million (that was from the report's summary page, but the loans he itemized for the report totaled $1.425 million.)  

His total 3Q contributions are from that summary page, but they may not be accurate, hence the asterisk next to the total (*); the loans total is added up by me.  The loan total that I added up exceeds the total contributions reported.

Norton has other problems, too.  In Q3, he raised less than $30K from individuals while his Democratic opponent, Nick Mansour, raised over $200K from individuals.

In addition, he reports having less than 1/12 of the cash on hand than Mansour has (not a huge problem given Norton's personal deep pockets.

- A significant chunk of R nominee for governor Andy Biggs' money came from the committee of his Lt. Governor pick, Sine Kerr.  I'm not going to speculate on whether that affected the decision to add her to the ticket.

Q2 2026 Reports Are In! Statewide

This will cover certain state-level candidates

Some commentary:

Norton is still trying to buy the R nomination for state treasurer - 

R candidate for Arizona treasurer Elijah Norton has just over $300K in cash on hand (COH), which gives him a big advantage in that area over R rival Katherine Haley, who has just over $81K in COH.

Problem?

He's loaned his own campaign...wait for it...$2.75.million over the election cycle (he's repaid $50K).

And that may be undercounting his loans as that is based on his own reporting, and there is some conflict there -

To put his loan amount into some perspective, while he's loaned his own committee over $2.7 million, he's raised under $300 thousand from donors other than himself.

Follow the money. ProPublica has published a database of financial disclosures from those folks in Cheeto's administration

Earlier this week, ProPublica  released a database of financial disclosures from Cheeto and some of the officials in his administration.

I heartily recommend perusing it in its entirety.

It turns out that while Cheeto is not the absolute wealthiest person in his admin, he's close (note to readers from ProPublica and other media outlets: a database showing change in wealth over time for the same population would be a good thing).

From their database (note: all pics will be from ProPublica's database unless otherwise noted):

As this is an Arizona blog, I'll focus on his appointees from AZ.

Caveat: This is an incomplete list, and I know it - this list is compiled from news stories, press releases, agency bios, and Congressional records.  I almost certainly missed some folks; if a reader knows of someone who isn't included here, please leave their name and post in a comment.  Also, this is a moment in time - others will accept jobs in Cheeto's admin as time goes on.  Lastly, some folks may drop out of jobs with Cheeto, whether voluntarily or involuntarily.  I've already found two and deleted them from the list.

Kari Lake may soon join the list of folks who no longer work for Cheeto - a judge ruled she was installed as head of her agency unlawfully.

Q4 Reports Are In!

This will cover certain state-level candidates; federal candidate reports were due today and are not yet available on the FEC's website.

Some commentary:

R candidate for Arizona treasurer Elijah Norton has just under $2.1 million in cash on hand (COH), which gives him a big advantage in that area over D candidate Nick Mansour, who has just over $245 thousand in COH.

Problem?

He's loaned his own campaign...wait for it...$2.1 million over the election cycle.

It sure looks like he is trying to buy the office.

Another one who isn't doing well in terms of fundraising is incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne (R-Bigot).  Other than what he gave to himself, he raised just over $41K in the 4th quarter of 2025.

Note: Rodney Glassman (R-Perennial Candidate) loaned himself a million dollars, but did so over a year ago, so it's not included above.

Q3 Reports Are In! Redux

This covers covers state level candidates only, and then only those candidates that I've deemed as having a legit chance of winning their race or being "interesting". If a reader wants to know the numbers for a candidate not included here, please let me know in a comment.

David Schweikert is listed here, but he entered the Republican primary for AZ Governor outside of Q3, so he had nothing to report.  His Q4 fundraising should be illuminating.

Elijah Norton's (R - AZ Treasurer) robust COH number in spite of raising no funds in this quarter is due to a large loan he made to own campaign in a previous quarter.

Alexander Kolodin (R - AZ SOS) loaned his own campaign $52K during the quarter but paid back $2K during the quarter, so the debt is $50K.

[Edit on 10/19]

Mea Culpa - I made a typo on Rodney Glassman's COH number, as in "I forgot a digit".

His actual COH total is $2,826,323.83, not what I entered in my original post.

I apologize for the error; it was unintentional but regrettable.

[/end edit]

Q3 Reports Are In!

This covers covers Congress only, and then only those candidates that I've deemed as having a legit chance of winning their race or being "interesting". If a reader wants to know the numbers for a candidate not included here, please let me know in a comment.

David Schweikert (R-CD1) is included here because while he's declared for Arizona Governor, he was fundraising for his race to retain his seat in Congress well into the reporting period. While no Republican "names" have yet entered the race so far, I expect quarter's post to have different names on it.

Lastly, Adelita Grijalva (D-CD7) did not yet file a quarterly report for Q3; as such, her numbers are from her Pre-Special election filing covering the period through 9/3/2025.

Q2 reports are in! Redux.

Last week, I published a post about the campaign reports for federal candidates.

Today, it's the turn for state-level candidates.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the AZSOS before the Q2 2025 deadline (6/30/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q3 aren't covered here.  This also isn't comprehensive - I included only people who I believed are legitimate candidates.  That may...OK, *will*…change as the cycle goes on.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

NA = "No activity" report filed

Some of this is interesting -

In the hotly-contested R primary for governor, Karrin Taylor Robson wildly out raised her main opponent in Q2, Andy Biggs.  Apparently.  However, she loaned her campaign the majority of the funds she raised.  While her overall number is more than $2 million greater than Biggs', her funds raised from non-candidate sources was a little less than $150K more than Biggs.

Another red flag for Robson?  Her loans greatly exceed her cash on hand.  She looks like she is trying to buy the nomination.

In the race for the soon-to-be-vacant Arizona State Treasurer slot (incumbent Kimberly Yee is termed out), R candidate Elijah Norton (formerly the treasurer for the Arizona Republican Party and a 2022 candidate in AZCD1) loaned his campaign his ENTIRE Q2 fundraising take.  

Like Robson, he appears to trying to buy the election.

Q2 reports are in!

At least they are for federal candidates, candidates for AZ offices have an extra week to file reports.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the FEC before the Q1 2025 deadline (6/30/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q2 aren't covered here.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Listed dates of formation are from the FEC.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

CD7 will be ignored until Q4 2025 as they just completed a special primary election and are going into a special general election.  This is about 2026.

An open letter to Sen. Ruben Gallego

Rolling Stone broke some news about one of AZ's own this weekend.

From Rolling Stone -

Dem Crypto Ally Defends Fundraiser With Trump Crypto Donor

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) traveled to Pennsylvania for a town hall on Saturday to offer 

Democrats advice on how to build a bigger tent — and perhaps to drum up support for a 

potential 2028 presidential bid. 

 

When an attendee asked Gallego about a fundraiser he held 

with Marc Andreessen, a billionaire crypto investor and close ally of Donald Trump...

The rest is behind a paywall, but readers get the gist.

Dear Sen. Gallego,

Maybe you thought that people back in AZ would be distracted by Hamas' financiers offering Cheeto a $400 million bribe, and Cheeto trying to rationalize accepting it.

Maybe you thought that because it took place across the country, no one would back in AZ would notice.

We weren't distracted, and we did notice it.

You shouldn't behave like Cheeto -he's a complete skell.

You shouldn't behave like you're R-lite - they're depraved, on a good day.

You shouldn't behave like you're Sinema-lite - she defines "ethically challenged."

Before she changed her registration, and *couldn't* be part of the Democratic primary, I had already decided that if she was the Democratic nominee, I would skip the race.

That may happen when you're up for re-election, and i expect that I won't be the only person to make such a decision.

You didn't win in 2024 by much and you can't afford to lose too many voters...nor can you count on the Rs nominating someone as personally unpopular as Kari Lake.

Me

Q1 reports are in! Redux.

Last Saturday, I published a post about the campaign reports for federal candidates.

Today, it's the turn for state-level candidates.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the AZSOS before the Q1 2025 deadline (3/31/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q2 aren't covered here.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Listed dates of formation are from the AZSOS; some were formed for runs for another office.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

A "0" in an amount cell means that was what was reported; a blank means no report was filed.

Q1 reports are in!

At least they are for federal candidates, candidates for AZ offices have an extra week to file reports.

Some caveats:

It's still very early, so this only includes candidates who formed committees with the FEC before the Q1 2025 deadline (3/31/2025).  Candidates who haven't yet formed a committee or formed one in Q2 aren't covered here.

This isn't meant to predict who will actually be on a ballot.

Nor is it meant to predict who will win any primary.

Listed dates of formation are from the FEC.

Some definitions:

COH = Cash on Hand

SOI = Statement of Interest

A "0" in an amount cell means that was what was reported; a blank means no report was filed.

No surprises here, though Aversa (CD7) was interesting - in 2024 he ran as the Green Party candidate for AZCD3; at the beginning of this month, he wanted to run as a write in candidate in the special election in FL-CD1 but was disqualified there, and now wants to run in the special election in AZ-CD7.

He can call himself a Green, but he's stridently anti-choice.

My guess: he doesn't appear on a ballot here, or loses in a big way if he does appear on one.

Cheeto is ALWAYS about the money, no matter what he says

From an email that I received today (have I mentioned that I'm on some verrryyyy interesting email lists?) -

His professed altruism didn't last long (with him, it never does).

From later (OK - it wasn't much later) in the same email -

Ummm, Cheeto's relationship with the truth is sketchy, on a good day.

"Billions"?

From the FEC summary page for the Harris for President campaign -

Hmmm...$235 million is a lot of money, but it's not "billions".  Not even close.

Whatever could be ticking off Cheeto?

Also from the FEC, this one for the Trump for President 2024 campaign.-

$235 million vs. $134 million?

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Maricopa County

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, I don't know if Q2 Money raised amounts include Q2 Loan totals as none of the listed candidates reported loans in Q2.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - State

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do  include Q2 Loan totals.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Federal

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest, though there is an exception to that (Ruben Gallego, I'm looking at you :) ).

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

Federal numbers are taken from lines 11e, 13c, and 27 of candidate filings. Also, Q2 Money raised amounts do not include Q2 Loan totals (state-level numbers are different is this regard).

Q1 fundraising totals are in

This post only covers significant federal candidates (IMO) who submitted nominating sigs to the Arizona Secretary of State.  Some may be knocked off of a ballot due to legal challenges.

The most interesting thing was not one of the money entries, but one of the signature totals - Kari Lake secured precisely 0 of her signatures on paper.  

I admit, I don't know much about R primaries or candidates, but someone who exhibits an aversion to going door-to-door or who can't inspire volunteers to do so probably isn't going to do well. 

All money totals obtained from page 2 of the candidates' Q1 2024 filings

Lots of money will be spent on AZ's general election, though much of won't be from candidates

A lot of will come from PACs, some of them "dark money," with undisclosed sources.

And some of them will be local and not the well known (and already active) national groups that we already know about, like the DCCC, NRCC.DGA, RGA, DSCC, and NRSC (and others).  Still, whether paid for by candidates or PACs (national or local), we should expect our airwaves and mailboxes to be filled with vote for/don't vote for crap in October.

To be sure, some of these PACs will NOT be active; a lot will depend on the ability of their principals to raise money.  Also, some were formed to support/oppose a particular candidate in their primary races.  But the PACs have interesting names.

Caveat: Many names will be thrown around in this post, and I've never met any of these people in real life.  They might be decent human beings...other than for their heavy involvement in R politics.

Caveat to the caveat: Except Sean Noble.  With a track record like his, anyone who shakes his hand should probably count their fingers afterward.

Note: this list, though long, is NOT meant to be comprehensive.

Recently formed at the Maricopa County level -

Arizona Liberty Coalition                      1002272

Chair: Stewart Carlough, occupation: pilot           Treasurer: Charles Coolidge, occupation: consultant

Date formed: May 12, 2022

It's already accepted $50K from the Kendricks.

Registered with the IRS -

Sean Noble has a long and sordid history as a conduit for dark money.

Bigot with a badge Mark Lamb is involved with this one.  He's the sheriff in Pinal County; what is it about the recent sheriffs there?

The next time Ragan is an independent will be the first time.

From the website of Prosper.org -

Ragan is involved with another PAC -

Ragan is involved with a state-level committee, too -

Of course, Ragan isn't the only name common to PACs.

This looks to be a dark money group, as its address circles in on that of its donor.

Another name to keep an eye on -

An Arizona PAC not based in AZ?  Really?

To be fair, this one may not be active in the general election.  Based on their expenditures, their preferred candidate was Republican Shawnna Bolick, and as she didn't win her primary...

My "independent" crack applies here.

Another "Arizona" PAC that's not actually based in AZ.