Predictions

Of course, these predictions  may be worth every penny you've paid for them. :)

There are certain (OK, "many") races not mentioned here.  Not mentioning them doesn't mean that I believe that they are unimportant or aren't hotly contested, just that I have no specific insight to offer on them

Let's start with the easy ones -

Kate Gallego wins another term as mayor of Phoenix.  This one is easy because she faces only token opposition in her race.

Ruben Gallego wins a term as US Senator.  His opponent, Kari Lake, is getting desperate and is running low on funds.  Her latest rhetoric has gotten very apocalyptic (she's essentially saying "Vote for me and Cheeto or else!") and her TV spots are much shorter (15 secs?).  Actually, that was over the weekend and on Monday.  On Tuesday and Wednesday: nada.

I expect Proposition 139 to pass, putting language in the state's constitution protecting one's ability to obtain an abortion.  Notwithstanding the objections of Cathi Herrod and her vassals in the state legislature, measures like this usually pass by a wide margin, even is the most conservative states.

I also expect Proposition 314 to pass, putting hate and bigotry into AZ law.

Lastly, I expect most of the other propositions put on the ballot by the legislature to go down in flames, though Proposition 311 (giving a stipend to the spouses and/or children of first responders killed in the line of duty) may garner enough "awwww, shucks" votes to pass.

A guess that's imprecise -

Maricopa County county-wide races favor Rs in terms of registrations, but the county recorder's race may go Democratic because most voters aren't conservative ideologues, and the R nominee is one.  Also, don't ignore the race for county attorney.  The R incumbent, Rachel Mitchell, is desperate enough to have an outside group running ads for her.  The D nominee, Tamika Wooten, is not desperate.

Guesses that I hope I'm wrong on (in different ways, though) -

Cheeto may win in AZ, though that race seems close enough that Harris may pull off an upset here.

Regardless, of what happens in AZ, he's on pace to lose the popular vote nationally for the third time in a row.

Got no predictions on individual legislative contests, though there is hope that this is the year that Democrats take control of one or both chambers or the lege.    I'm not going predict a change in the majority party there until there *is* one.  I hope there is one though.

Have no prediction on races for individual Maricopa County Supervisor slots.  The BOS currently has one Democrat and four Republicans among its membership of five.  That may go to two and three, respectively, but again, I'm not going predict a change in control here until there *is* one.

Now for one I don't have even a guess on -

Proposition 140, the jungle primary measure.  There are many disaffected voters in AZ, so it may pass, but I don't know if they'll feel that a jungle primary will solve their problem.  So it may not.

Noble Predictive Insights, a rightward tilting firm, has some insights on Maricopa County races here and statewide ballot measures here.  Their polling is relatively old (early September), but may offer some insight anyway.  We're less than two weeks away from the only poll that matters.

Statewide ballot measures, from the AZ Secretary of State, here.

Maricopa County candidate list, from the Maricopa County Recorder's Office, here.

State level candidate listing here, courtesy the AZSOS.