Legislative schedule - week starting 10/27/2024

As of this writing, there's only one meeting at the legislature scheduled for this week

On Monday, 10/28 and Wednesday, 10/30 and Thursday 10/31 - Nada.

On Tuesday, 10/29 -

Joint Legislative Ad Hoc Study Committee on Water Security meets at 1 p.m. in HHR1.  On the agenda: presentations and a discussion about active management areas (for water) and the assured water supply program.  Given that certain members of the committee are industry apologists (hey, it's nicer than referring to them as employees of industry lobbyists), I expect this committee, and the legislature as a whole, to protect industry interests.  Water for people?  Not as important as water for industry.

Predictions

Of course, these predictions  may be worth every penny you've paid for them. :)

There are certain (OK, "many") races not mentioned here.  Not mentioning them doesn't mean that I believe that they are unimportant or aren't hotly contested, just that I have no specific insight to offer on them

Let's start with the easy ones -

Kate Gallego wins another term as mayor of Phoenix.  This one is easy because she faces only token opposition in her race.

Ruben Gallego wins a term as US Senator.  His opponent, Kari Lake, is getting desperate and is running low on funds.  Her latest rhetoric has gotten very apocalyptic (she's essentially saying "Vote for me and Cheeto or else!") and her TV spots are much shorter (15 secs?).  Actually, that was over the weekend and on Monday.  On Tuesday and Wednesday: nada.

I expect Proposition 139 to pass, putting language in the state's constitution protecting one's ability to obtain an abortion.  Notwithstanding the objections of Cathi Herrod and her vassals in the state legislature, measures like this usually pass by a wide margin, even is the most conservative states.

I also expect Proposition 314 to pass, putting hate and bigotry into AZ law.

Lastly, I expect most of the other propositions put on the ballot by the legislature to go down in flames, though Proposition 311 (giving a stipend to the spouses and/or children of first responders killed in the line of duty) may garner enough "awwww, shucks" votes to pass.

A guess that's imprecise -

Maricopa County county-wide races favor Rs in terms of registrations, but the county recorder's race may go Democratic because most voters aren't conservative ideologues, and the R nominee is one.  Also, don't ignore the race for county attorney.  The R incumbent, Rachel Mitchell, is desperate enough to have an outside group running ads for her.  The D nominee, Tamika Wooten, is not desperate.

Guesses that I hope I'm wrong on (in different ways, though) -

Cheeto may win in AZ, though that race seems close enough that Harris may pull off an upset here.

Regardless, of what happens in AZ, he's on pace to lose the popular vote nationally for the third time in a row.

Got no predictions on individual legislative contests, though there is hope that this is the year that Democrats take control of one or both chambers or the lege.    I'm not going predict a change in the majority party there until there *is* one.  I hope there is one though.

Have no prediction on races for individual Maricopa County Supervisor slots.  The BOS currently has one Democrat and four Republicans among its membership of five.  That may go to two and three, respectively, but again, I'm not going predict a change in control here until there *is* one.

Now for one I don't have even a guess on -

Proposition 140, the jungle primary measure.  There are many disaffected voters in AZ, so it may pass, but I don't know if they'll feel that a jungle primary will solve their problem.  So it may not.

Noble Predictive Insights, a rightward tilting firm, has some insights on Maricopa County races here and statewide ballot measures here.  Their polling is relatively old (early September), but may offer some insight anyway.  We're less than two weeks away from the only poll that matters.

Statewide ballot measures, from the AZ Secretary of State, here.

Maricopa County candidate list, from the Maricopa County Recorder's Office, here.

State level candidate listing here, courtesy the AZSOS.

A single word can be sooooo descriptive

Both articles are from last week.

From MSNBC -

Kari Lake’s whiffed attack over Gallego’s divorce puts her campaign further in the gutter

Kari Lake’s last-ditch effort to slime Ruben Gallego in the lead-up to Election Day landed with a dud.

Lake had been hyping up an effort by The Washington Free Beacon, a right-wing media outlet, to pry loose documents related to Gallego’s divorce from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

Although the Gallegos have publicly been amicable since their split, Lake and other conservatives have homed in on the fact that their divorce came as Kate Gallego was pregnant, and the fishing expedition has seemed intent on finding details that could be used to sling mud at Gallego. Lake has run ads referring to Gallego as a “deadbeat dad” and last week promised that a “massive story” was on the horizon.

On the same topic, from KPNX (12 News Phoenix), written by Kevin Reagan -

Here's what we found in Ruben Gallego's divorce records

A heavily-redacted version of U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego's divorce papers released Thursday revealed little new information about the dissolution of his marriage to Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego.

After the Arizona Supreme Court denied a motion to keep the Gallego divorce records sealed, a 465-page document was published by Yavapai County Superior Court that included several redactions regarding how the Gallegos split custody of their son, how they split their assets, and their child support agreement.

 

I've got one word to describe the Gallego's divorce proceeding record -

Boring.

I've got one word to describe Kari Lake and her surrogates -

Despicable.

(That word was used by Tony Cani on KTVK's Politics Unplugged, but I was there even before I heard it from him.)

Is Congressman Eli Crane (R-Most of Northern AZ) in trouble?

From Inside Elections -

Arizona 2 Poll: Sleeper Race Awakens

Arizona voters already faced a gauntlet of competitive races this fall, from a toss-up presidential contest to a high-profile Senate race and two of the most expensive House races in the country.

But another election may be asserting itself in the closing weeks of the cycle, according to new polling by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern part of the state, has largely flown under the radar since Republican Eli Crane flipped the seat from Democrat Tom O’Halleran in 2022. While Crane made some headlines for his efforts in ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, his re-election campaign has attracted little outside attention.

But the latest Inside Elections/NPI battleground House district poll suggests he is entering the final month of the election neck-and-neck with his Democratic opponent, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

[snip]

There are nine Congressional districts in Arizona; six are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats.

I fully expect Biggs (R), Gosar (R), and Grijalva (D) to retain their seats; they're in districts where their party has an overwhelming advantage.. I expect Stanton (D) to retain his - the district he represents has a slight Republican advantage in voter registration numbers but that race is in a turnout district and the Democrats there do a far better turnout job.  Though they're newbies, I expect Ansari (D) and Hamadeh (R) to win their races as the districts they're running overwhelmingly favor their parties.

Two of the races, CD1's Schweikert (R) v. Shah (D) and CD6's Ciscomani (R) v. Engel (D) are currently held by Republicans, but those are actual contests - Schweikert is ethically challenged and Ciscomani is a first-termer in a district that, like Stanton's, slightly favors Rs in voter registration numbers but is a turnout district.

CD2's Crane (R) v. Jonathan Nez (D) should be added to the competitive list (to be fair, it probably should have been there all along).

Crane is a first-termer and is a stone cold bigot in a district with a large number of Native American voters.

Nez is a former president of the Navajo Nation.

Of the three races, I expect that one will go Democratic, hope that two will, and be (pleasantly) surprised if all three do.

I'm not going make any predictions in these races - at this point, it's all about the candidates and turnout efforts.

Apparently, $75 million doesn't buy what it used to...just ask Elon Musk

From Forbes -

Elon Musk Has Given $75 Million To Pro-Trump Super PAC—So Far

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave about $75 million last quarter to a super PAC that has heavily propped up former President Donald Trump’s election bid, according to a filing released Tuesday, the first concrete indicator of how much the world’s richest person is spending to help elect Trump.

Musk gave $74,950,000 to America PAC between July 1 and September 30, the most recent date for which filings are available, according to a filing with the Federal Election Commission.

His donations made up virtually all of the $74,950,020 the PAC reported taking in last quarter.

The FEC filing is the first confirmation that Musk has poured money into the super PAC, following early reports he was giving as much as $45 million per month—which he later denied—and later suggestions he was contributing most of the group’s total budget.

America PAC has reportedly become primarily responsible for the Trump campaign’s ground game and knocking on voters’ doors, as a recent FEC ruling gave super PACs—which are formally separate from campaigns—more leeway to coordinate directly with campaigns on those efforts, and recently made headlines for offering supporters $47 if they get signatures on a petition from swing state voters.

"America PAC"? 

Remember that name.

From The Guardian (UK) -

Exclusive: Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake

Donald Trump’s campaign may be failing to reach thousands of voters they hope to turn out in Arizona and Nevada, with roughly a quarter of door-knocks done by America Pac flagged by its canvassing app as potentially fraudulent, according to leaked data and people familiar with the matter.

The potentially fake door-knocks – when canvassers falsely claim to have visited a home – could present a serious setback for Trump as he and Kamala Harris remain even in the polls with fewer than 20 days until an election.

The Trump campaign earlier this year outsourced the bulk of its ground game to America Pac, the political action committee founded by Elon Musk, betting that spending millions to turn out Trump supporters, especially those who don’t typically vote, would boost returns.

But leaked America Pac data obtained by the Guardian shows that roughly 24% of the door-knocks in Arizona and 25% of the door-knocks in Nevada this week were flagged under “unusual survey logs” by the Campaign Sidekick canvassing app.

My guess if/when he loses the election, Cheeto will insist that the system is rigged against him; in quieter, more reflective moments (Oh, who am I trying to kid?  He'll shout it from the rooftops) he'll blame Musk.  He'll *never* blame himself.

Musk will blame the folks working for him.

Scam artists who are in circles of/the employ of other scam artists?

Who'da thunk it?

Q3 money totals are in...and some (OK, *my*) suspicions are raised about a return of the Green/GOP scam

- First up, the Cash on Hand (COH) totals as of the end of September.  This is NOT a prediction of who will win a given race, but COH numbers may be an accurate predictor of who will spend money for mailers and TV/radio ads as we approach the election.

The following is for federal races and select Maricopa County-level races.  Ballot candidates only; no write-in candidates.

- Now for the suspicious part.

While doing this, I realized that no Libertarian Party candidate was on the ballot for a federal office in AZ or in Maricopa County.  Where they might siphon votes from the Republican candidate in the race

Green Patty candidates?  On the ballot is most federal races where the Democratic candidate will win or has even a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July..of winning.  Where the Green candidate may siphon votes away from the Democratic candidate in race.

Call me a cynic, but I don't believe in coincidences.

Especially since three of the Greens were write-in candidates in the primary.

Especially since all four Green have failed to file paperwork with the FEC.

If it *is* a scam foisted off on the voters of Arizona by the GOP, it's not a new one.

At least they aren't homeless kids this time.

Legislative schedule - week starting 10/20/2024

Nada, as in there is nothing scheduled at this point. 

There *is* something scheduled for the 29th, but that will be covered in next week's post.

Cheeto is ALWAYS about the money, no matter what he says

From an email that I received today (have I mentioned that I'm on some verrryyyy interesting email lists?) -

His professed altruism didn't last long (with him, it never does).

From later (OK - it wasn't much later) in the same email -

Ummm, Cheeto's relationship with the truth is sketchy, on a good day.

"Billions"?

From the FEC summary page for the Harris for President campaign -

Hmmm...$235 million is a lot of money, but it's not "billions".  Not even close.

Whatever could be ticking off Cheeto?

Also from the FEC, this one for the Trump for President 2024 campaign.-

$235 million vs. $134 million?

Cheeto goes full on megalomaniac

I'm still of the opinion that Kamala Harris' best campaign stratagem may be to simply put a mic in front of Cheeto.

The fact that this is still a race doesn't speak well of the character of many Americans.

From CBSNews, emphasis added by me -

Trump's anti-immigrant, domestic "enemy" rhetoric in focus in final stretch to Election Day

With the 2024 campaign now approaching the final stretch, former President Donald Trump is drawing attention for rhetoric about immigrants — and going after his enemies. 

It comes as the candidates are effectively tied nationally and in the battleground states, according to new polling from CBS News. The former president has also reiterated a warning made throughout his campaign of what he called the "enemy from within."

[snip]

Trump also suggested using the military to go after the "enemy from within" on Election Day in an interview with Fox News that aired on Sunday, pointing to Democrats and those who oppose or have investigated him. 

"We have some sick people, radical left lunatics," Trump said Sunday. "And it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military."

On Saturday, Trump said Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff — who led the first impeachment against Trump and is now running for Senate — is among the "enemies from within" at a rally in Coachella, California, as he painted Schiff and other rivals as threats to the county. On Friday, he called Vice President Kamala Harris a "criminal" for her role in the Biden administration's handling of immigration, a common attack line in recent months.

A pic guaranteed to tick off election deniers

Early ballots are beginning to arrive

And mine has already arrived.

The ballot is long this year -

I was going to skip one race (CD1) if the Democratic nominee ran as R-lite in the general election campaign.

Amish Shah, the Democratic nominee, has done so; however, a Republican, House Speaker Mike Johnson said something on NBC's Meet The Press today that made change my mind on the topic.

Johnson stated the the U.S. had a peaceful transfer of power after the election in 2020.

From the NBCNews transcript of today's MTP episode (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON:

That’s – no, the point is the process works. We have the peaceful transfer of power. We did in 2020. We will in 2024. Everybody can sigh and take a deep breath. Our system is going to work. We have the greatest system in the history of the world because we live in the greatest country in the world. But that last part is in jeopardy right now. This is a decisive election, and everybody knows it, and that's why we're going to be -- have given the chance to run this country again and we're going to turn it around, and I can't wait.

The people who feared for their lives and the families of those killed during the insurrection of January 6, 2021 may disagree on that subject.

Bottom line:  There's no way that a shameless liar like him should be allowed to continue to be speaker and this race may end his speakership, if Shah wins the race.

Another race that was, interestingly, also decided for me by a Republican (many Republicans, in this case) was the race for Maricopa County Recorder.

If Republican incumbent Stephen Richer made it through their primary to face Democratic challenger Tim Stringham in the general election, I would have had a decision to make.  I value competence.

However, R voters my decision an easy one - they nominated Justin Heap, an unqualified ideologue, for the job.

My take on statewide ballot questions is here;

As for the retention of the judges who are on this year's ballot, Civic Engagement Beyond Voting has a scorecard here.

The complete report from the Arizona Judicial Performance Review Commission (JPR) is here.  One caveat:  a commission that is part of the state's judicial branch believes that all of the judges on the ballot meet their standards. [start sarcasm] Quelle surprise! [/end sarcasm]

What JPR doesn't evaluate or even care about are judges who are lousy human beings and worse public servants.

I'll be voting to not retain Clint Bolick and Kathryn King of the AZ Supreme Court and Angela Paton of the AZ Court of Appeals.  Bolick and King voted to uphold Arizona's pre-statehood abortion ban and Paton is unqualified for two reasons: 1. she's a Federalist society stooge and 2. she's married to former legislator and current industry lobbyist Jonathan Paton, who was one of the authors of Proposition 137, the scheme from legislative Republicans to do away with judicial retention elections.

Note: Bolick, King, and Paton were appointed by former governor Doug Ducey.

The one Maricopa County judge I'll be voting to not retain is civil court judge Christopher Coury, who's got temperament issues.

Legislative schedule - week starting 10/13/2024

Nada, as in there is nothing scheduled at this point. 

Need your daily dose of hypocrisy? You'll get it when an election denier runs for office.

Early ballots are in the mail, so I did some research/due diligence on the races that I know nothing about.

For brevity's sake, I'll refer to them as "school board" races.

For the At-Large seat in the Phoenix Union HSD, incumbent Aaron Marquez, Francisco Pastor-Rivera, Aden Ramirez, and Debbie Cross are in a four-way race for two seats.

At least in a shallow search, none of them raise any red flags.

Note: Marquez is also a candidate for State Representative in LD5.  If he wins both races, that's not a problem - state legislators can also serve on school boards.

This race will be difficult - after Marquez, I don't know who to vote for.

In the Balsz ESD race, incumbent Vic Grace, incumbent Gail Knight, Lezley Shepherd, and Jacob George are in a four-way race for three seats.

Note: I looked for websites for the first three candidates.  Couldn't find any.

Grace and Knight are already board members and George seems well-qualified.

Shepherd, though, is a problem.

She's been quoted many times, in outlets ranging from the NY Times to the AZ Mirror, all denying the result of the 2020 election.

From an NY Times article about Arizona's "fraudit", one that actually found more votes for Biden and fewer for Cheeto, dated 9/24/2021 (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

In a statement, Mr. Trump on Friday said the review had “uncovered significant and undeniable evidence of FRAUD! Until we know how and why this happened, our Elections will never be secure.”

Many of his fans appeared persuaded.

“I have no doubt now: That election was rigged,” said Lezley Shepherd, 56, one of hundreds of Arizona voters who flocked to the State Capitol on Friday

At least she's not a one trick pony: she hates gay people, too.  And she's not shy about expressing her opinion.  

From a Phoenix New Times article about the Republican quest to criminalize drag shows, written by Elias Weiss, dated 2/4/2023 (emphasis added by me) -

All of those who spoke in favor of the bill [CM: SB1028 in 2023] referenced the Bible. One of them, Leslie Shepherd, asserted that “the LGBTQ movement is using [drag] as a shield to allow inappropriate behavior toward children.”

Well, one positive thing can be said about her candidacy: she's made the choice easy.  There's no way on Earth she gets my vote.

At this point, my only question is that when the election doesn't go her way, will she refute the results and try to deliberate and vote as a board member?

Bottom line: I consider most campaigns for elected office to be little more than extended group job interviews, and you don't hire the person who says that if the hiring process doesn't go their way, it's because the process is rigged.

The Gallego-Lake debate is on TV right now.

Just a guess here, but Lake probably won't win any new voters with her performance.

She seems mean, petty, and ill-informed (she repeatedly referred to IVF [In Vitro Fertilization] as "UVF", which is the acronym for Ulster Volunteer Force or University of Valley Forge).

Gotta love coincidences

And I believe that this actually *is* a coincidence and not me being snarky.

Both former legislator Adam Driggs and his spouse, Leonore Driggs are on the ballot this year and, for different reasons, neither has competition.

Note: My referring to them by their first names and not their titles is not a sign of disrespect.  Both are known as "Judge Driggs" and that would get confusing.  Quickly :) .

Of course, Adam is a judge with Maricopa County Superior Court and subject to a retention election where voters can only vote to retain or not to retain him as a judge.  No opponent.

Leonore is the incumbent Justice of the Peace in the Arcadia Biltmore justice precinct in Phoenix.  There's no opponent on the ballot, nor is there a write-in candidate in the race.

I'll be voting for both of them - I've never heard anything bad about Leonore Driggs, and the Judicial Performance Review Commission has determined that Adam Driggs meets standards.

Yes, AZ is a very large state (~114K square miles) but in terms of politics here, it's much like a small town.