Predictions

Of course, these predictions  may be worth every penny you've paid for them. :)

There are certain (OK, "many") races not mentioned here.  Not mentioning them doesn't mean that I believe that they are unimportant or aren't hotly contested, just that I have no specific insight to offer on them

Let's start with the easy ones -

Kate Gallego wins another term as mayor of Phoenix.  This one is easy because she faces only token opposition in her race.

Ruben Gallego wins a term as US Senator.  His opponent, Kari Lake, is getting desperate and is running low on funds.  Her latest rhetoric has gotten very apocalyptic (she's essentially saying "Vote for me and Cheeto or else!") and her TV spots are much shorter (15 secs?).  Actually, that was over the weekend and on Monday.  On Tuesday and Wednesday: nada.

I expect Proposition 139 to pass, putting language in the state's constitution protecting one's ability to obtain an abortion.  Notwithstanding the objections of Cathi Herrod and her vassals in the state legislature, measures like this usually pass by a wide margin, even is the most conservative states.

I also expect Proposition 314 to pass, putting hate and bigotry into AZ law.

Lastly, I expect most of the other propositions put on the ballot by the legislature to go down in flames, though Proposition 311 (giving a stipend to the spouses and/or children of first responders killed in the line of duty) may garner enough "awwww, shucks" votes to pass.

A guess that's imprecise -

Maricopa County county-wide races favor Rs in terms of registrations, but the county recorder's race may go Democratic because most voters aren't conservative ideologues, and the R nominee is one.  Also, don't ignore the race for county attorney.  The R incumbent, Rachel Mitchell, is desperate enough to have an outside group running ads for her.  The D nominee, Tamika Wooten, is not desperate.

Guesses that I hope I'm wrong on (in different ways, though) -

Cheeto may win in AZ, though that race seems close enough that Harris may pull off an upset here.

Regardless, of what happens in AZ, he's on pace to lose the popular vote nationally for the third time in a row.

Got no predictions on individual legislative contests, though there is hope that this is the year that Democrats take control of one or both chambers or the lege.    I'm not going predict a change in the majority party there until there *is* one.  I hope there is one though.

Have no prediction on races for individual Maricopa County Supervisor slots.  The BOS currently has one Democrat and four Republicans among its membership of five.  That may go to two and three, respectively, but again, I'm not going predict a change in control here until there *is* one.

Now for one I don't have even a guess on -

Proposition 140, the jungle primary measure.  There are many disaffected voters in AZ, so it may pass, but I don't know if they'll feel that a jungle primary will solve their problem.  So it may not.

Noble Predictive Insights, a rightward tilting firm, has some insights on Maricopa County races here and statewide ballot measures here.  Their polling is relatively old (early September), but may offer some insight anyway.  We're less than two weeks away from the only poll that matters.

Statewide ballot measures, from the AZ Secretary of State, here.

Maricopa County candidate list, from the Maricopa County Recorder's Office, here.

State level candidate listing here, courtesy the AZSOS.

A pic guaranteed to tick off election deniers

Early ballots are beginning to arrive

And mine has already arrived.

The ballot is long this year -

I was going to skip one race (CD1) if the Democratic nominee ran as R-lite in the general election campaign.

Amish Shah, the Democratic nominee, has done so; however, a Republican, House Speaker Mike Johnson said something on NBC's Meet The Press today that made change my mind on the topic.

Johnson stated the the U.S. had a peaceful transfer of power after the election in 2020.

From the NBCNews transcript of today's MTP episode (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON:

That’s – no, the point is the process works. We have the peaceful transfer of power. We did in 2020. We will in 2024. Everybody can sigh and take a deep breath. Our system is going to work. We have the greatest system in the history of the world because we live in the greatest country in the world. But that last part is in jeopardy right now. This is a decisive election, and everybody knows it, and that's why we're going to be -- have given the chance to run this country again and we're going to turn it around, and I can't wait.

The people who feared for their lives and the families of those killed during the insurrection of January 6, 2021 may disagree on that subject.

Bottom line:  There's no way that a shameless liar like him should be allowed to continue to be speaker and this race may end his speakership, if Shah wins the race.

Another race that was, interestingly, also decided for me by a Republican (many Republicans, in this case) was the race for Maricopa County Recorder.

If Republican incumbent Stephen Richer made it through their primary to face Democratic challenger Tim Stringham in the general election, I would have had a decision to make.  I value competence.

However, R voters my decision an easy one - they nominated Justin Heap, an unqualified ideologue, for the job.

My take on statewide ballot questions is here;

As for the retention of the judges who are on this year's ballot, Civic Engagement Beyond Voting has a scorecard here.

The complete report from the Arizona Judicial Performance Review Commission (JPR) is here.  One caveat:  a commission that is part of the state's judicial branch believes that all of the judges on the ballot meet their standards. [start sarcasm] Quelle surprise! [/end sarcasm]

What JPR doesn't evaluate or even care about are judges who are lousy human beings and worse public servants.

I'll be voting to not retain Clint Bolick and Kathryn King of the AZ Supreme Court and Angela Paton of the AZ Court of Appeals.  Bolick and King voted to uphold Arizona's pre-statehood abortion ban and Paton is unqualified for two reasons: 1. she's a Federalist society stooge and 2. she's married to former legislator and current industry lobbyist Jonathan Paton, who was one of the authors of Proposition 137, the scheme from legislative Republicans to do away with judicial retention elections.

Note: Bolick, King, and Paton were appointed by former governor Doug Ducey.

The one Maricopa County judge I'll be voting to not retain is civil court judge Christopher Coury, who's got temperament issues.

Need your daily dose of hypocrisy? You'll get it when an election denier runs for office.

Early ballots are in the mail, so I did some research/due diligence on the races that I know nothing about.

For brevity's sake, I'll refer to them as "school board" races.

For the At-Large seat in the Phoenix Union HSD, incumbent Aaron Marquez, Francisco Pastor-Rivera, Aden Ramirez, and Debbie Cross are in a four-way race for two seats.

At least in a shallow search, none of them raise any red flags.

Note: Marquez is also a candidate for State Representative in LD5.  If he wins both races, that's not a problem - state legislators can also serve on school boards.

This race will be difficult - after Marquez, I don't know who to vote for.

In the Balsz ESD race, incumbent Vic Grace, incumbent Gail Knight, Lezley Shepherd, and Jacob George are in a four-way race for three seats.

Note: I looked for websites for the first three candidates.  Couldn't find any.

Grace and Knight are already board members and George seems well-qualified.

Shepherd, though, is a problem.

She's been quoted many times, in outlets ranging from the NY Times to the AZ Mirror, all denying the result of the 2020 election.

From an NY Times article about Arizona's "fraudit", one that actually found more votes for Biden and fewer for Cheeto, dated 9/24/2021 (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

In a statement, Mr. Trump on Friday said the review had “uncovered significant and undeniable evidence of FRAUD! Until we know how and why this happened, our Elections will never be secure.”

Many of his fans appeared persuaded.

“I have no doubt now: That election was rigged,” said Lezley Shepherd, 56, one of hundreds of Arizona voters who flocked to the State Capitol on Friday

At least she's not a one trick pony: she hates gay people, too.  And she's not shy about expressing her opinion.  

From a Phoenix New Times article about the Republican quest to criminalize drag shows, written by Elias Weiss, dated 2/4/2023 (emphasis added by me) -

All of those who spoke in favor of the bill [CM: SB1028 in 2023] referenced the Bible. One of them, Leslie Shepherd, asserted that “the LGBTQ movement is using [drag] as a shield to allow inappropriate behavior toward children.”

Well, one positive thing can be said about her candidacy: she's made the choice easy.  There's no way on Earth she gets my vote.

At this point, my only question is that when the election doesn't go her way, will she refute the results and try to deliberate and vote as a board member?

Bottom line: I consider most campaigns for elected office to be little more than extended group job interviews, and you don't hire the person who says that if the hiring process doesn't go their way, it's because the process is rigged.

Best news about Election 2023? Sal DiCiccio is term limited

Note: I live in Phoenix Council District 8.  DiCiccio represents District 6.

This came up while I was considering my vote -

From The Ahwatukee Foothills News, dated January 11, 2023 (emphasis added by me)-

Election 2022 isn’t over as voters decide District 6 seat

Ahwatukee voters haven’t seen the end of the 2022 election cycle and have one more vote to cast.

That will be to decide whether Kevin Robinson or Sam Stone will replace Sal DiCiccio as their representative on Phoenix City Council. Term limits precluded DiCiccio from running again.

I've never said anything positive about the character of any member of the political class in New York/New Jersey, but even there, he'd be considered a piece of work.

My guess is that he's not done with us yet - he may be looking at the R primary for 2024 US Senate or for a run at Greg Stanton's seat in Congress.

Primary Ballots Are In!

While I've decided who I'm going to vote for in some of the primary races, regardless of how they turn out, everyone involved seems to be a decent human being.  As such, there won't be any "nose-holding" in the general election.

No matter who emerges from the primaries, I hope the runners-up stay involved in the political process.  Their energy is needed, both to help the primary winners in the general election, and to be leaders for the rest of us.

When I "hold my nose" and vote for someone in spite of my misgivings because that person is better than the alternative, I may be right about the "better" part, but I still usually regret the vote (see: Sinema, Kysten).

Having said that, I *have* made a few decisions.

In the governor's race, I'll be voting for Katie Hobbs.  I've known her since she was an LD24 legislator and I lived in LD24.  She was impressive then, is impressive as Secretary of State, and I think that she'll make a great governor.

In the race for secretary of state, I'll be voting for Adrian Fontes.  He did a fantastic job as Maricopa County Recorder, and will be an outstanding SOS.

I live in LD5 now (didn't move; just got redistricted) and that's where I haven't made up my mind yet.

All pics (except the ballot) from the website of the AZSOS; federal candidates here; statewide candidates here, and legislative candidates here.

Federal Committee update (and State Committee update)

There's nothing to update here, as nominating signatures are due at the office of the Arizona Secretary of State on Monday.

I don't expect any new committees to be formed at this point, though after ballot candidates are finalized, a few may be.  Signatures can be collected without a committee, but funds cannot be raised or expended without one.

Some people, legislative candidates mostly, have qualified for the ballot already.  Statewide candidates here.  Legislative candidates here.

One Democratic candidate won't be submitting sigs.

From KJZZ -

Democratic Diego Rodriguez drops out of race for Arizona AG

Democrat Diego Rodriguez dropped out of the race for Arizona attorney general Friday, leaving former Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes as the only Democrat in the contest.

Rodriguez announced his decision days before the deadline to submit signatures to appear on the ballot. He did not give a reason but thanked his supporters and said in a statement, "I intend to remain a part of building a better Arizona."