MC Recorder: The best possible result for Tim Stringham: Stephen Richer loses in the primary:

Stringham is the Democratic nominee for Maricopa County Recorder...and I believe that in a general election battle against Richer, he wouldn't have stood a snowball's chance in Phoenix in July against him.

General election voters like simple competence from the public employees.

Fortunately for Stringham, though, Republican voters nominated Justin Heap for the office.

Heap's a pure ideologue, and the next time reality is more relevant to him than his beliefs will be the first time.

People who value clean voting and clean document keeping should donate to and vote for Tim Stringham.

Q2 Fundraising Figures - Maricopa County

Notes:

This is NOT a comprehensive list.  As this is primary season, it mostly includes candidates in primaries of interest.

Also, candidates who I don't believe have a snowball's chance in hell aren't included here.

Lastly, money is not votes.  A candidate with less cash on hand may defeat a candidate with more COH.

State numbers are taken from the summary pages of candidate filings. Also, I don't know if Q2 Money raised amounts include Q2 Loan totals as none of the listed candidates reported loans in Q2.

Blast from the (recent) past: Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the Maricopa County SD2 seat

Former state legislator and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Secretary of State (she lost in the R primary) Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the 2nd district seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

From Maricopa County's website -

(Note: I'd link to the committee paperwork, but the County's hyperlink to that isn't working)

SD2 is currently held by R Thomas Galvin.  As of May, he formed a committee to run for re-election.

Water protection for AZ doesn't seem to be his thing.

Caveat:  I live in SD2, but have not decided who to vote for.

2024 Statements of Interest: The Differences Between Counties Can Be Stark

I realize that it's early and that things could, and probably will, change.

Also, just because someone declares an interest in a elected office doesn't mean that they will appear on a ballot.

I would expect a better Democratic candidate turnout in a county won by Joe Biden in 2020 and Katie Hobbs in 2022 (Maricopa).

In Pima County, seven of the 14 people who have filed statements of interest and declared a party affiliation (one I has filed) are Democrats.  50%.

In Maricopa County, three out of 21 people who have filed are Democrats.  ~14%.

I don't know much (OK, *anything*) about Pima County politics, so I'll leave commenting on the candidates there (so far) to someone who knows more than I do; in Maricopa County, the only name that I recognize (other than incumbents running for re-election) is Jerry Sheridan, one of Joe Arpaio's deputies and a failed 2020 candidate for sheriff.  He wants to run for county sheriff again.

Maricopa County school board candidates are listed here;  As those races are nominally non-partisan (someone should tell the Rs that), none list a declared party affiliation.

Bill Montgomery - the people that know him best rejected retaining on the AZ Supreme Court

Former Maricopa County Attorney who got nominated and appointed to the Arizona Supreme Court to be a reliable vote for Doug Ducey will be retained as a Supe.

That's the statewide result, but in Maricopa County, he didn't do so well.

Statewide -

Maricopa County, from the website of the Maricopa County Recorder -

Learned two things from this:

1. Ouch!  The slap that Montgomery received from voters has gotta sting.  Not only did he come in ~15% less than the other AZ Supes on the ballot, a majority of voters in Maricopa County want him to go away.

2. Maricopa County, long a Republican bastion, is bluer than most people thought.  In addition to rejecting Montgomery, the voters here tended to support Democratic statewide candidates in a greater percentage than they garnered in the rest of the state.

Redistricting object lesson: Maricopa County Board of Supervisors

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors does its own redistricting, and one can tell that, for the most part, they pick their own voters. 

See if you can see a pattern here.

The main MCBOS redistricting webpage is here.

First, some basic demographics -

The Board has five members.

The membership is 100% male.

The membership is 80% non-Hispanic Caucasian.

The membership is 80% Republican.

The membership is NOT representative of the county as a whole.  Not even close.

From the U.S. Census Bureau -

Voter registration figures, courtesy the Maricopa County Recorder's Office -

While 80% of the board is Republican, Republicans only make up 53% of the voters who 

have registered in one of the two major parties.

Of course, only 34.3% of all registered voters in Maricopa County are enrolled Republicans.

While partisan affiliation is (allegedly) not a consideration during the supes' redistricting process, other factors may be.

I wonder what those factors could be? (That's sarcasm - I don't actually wonder at all.)

The supes' are considering five plans.  Even the least bad of those plans involve packing most ethnic minority voters into a single district.

The demographic figures of those plans -

I'm torn between wanting to keep them around and doing what they do to serve as a warning to those who believe that elected officials should be allowed to do their own redistricting and having the voters impose an AIRC-like process at the county level.

Then I remember that the county has a $3.42 *billion* budget.

They should be compelled by the voters to be more representative of Maricopa County.

Committee update - County edition

I wasn't going to do one of these posts, as this isn't an election year for major county offices.  However, with the resignation of county attorney Allister Adel, two major offices will be on the ballot this year - County Attorney and District 2 County Supervisor.

The one Democrat in the group, Julie Gunnigle, is an attorney and was a candidate for Maricopa County Attorney in 2020.  I went to sign her petition online, but it was closed as she as already gained enough signatures to get on the ballot.

Pic courtesy her website.

Foster is an attorney and an insider.  Adel may have been Bill Montgomery's choice for the office; Foster may be Doug Ducey's.  Not exactly a positive character reference.  Plus her campaign committee paperwork is also filled with insiders.

Twist is characterized as a "GOP power broker" by the AZ Mirror; I would characterize him as a "fixer".  Ragan is a former aide to former US Senator Jon Kyl,  someone with strong ties to Kirk Adams, former chief of staff to Doug Ducey, and the current treasurer for gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, another insider.

Republican Godbehere is a career prosecutor, with MCAO and now, the City of Goodyear.

ABC15 (Phoenix) has an article about the race that lists three additional candidates, but as of this writing, only the above-named three candidates have committees listed on the county's website.

Caveat: committees are about raising and expending funds. Sigs can still be collected without the formation of a committee.

Candidates just can't spend money while doing so.

As Supervisorial District 2 is not my district, I'll skip over that race for now.

East Mesa Justice of the Peace resigns after shoplifting charge; replacement process announced

From the Arizona Republic, written by Jim Walsh -

An East Mesa justice of the peace accused of shoplifting resigned Wednesday from the bench, citing medical problems. 

Judge Mark Chiles resigned effective May 31, according to a letter he sent to the Board of Supervisors. He was cited by Mesa police on a misdemeanor shoplifting charge on April 3 involving the theft of a $40 speaker from a Walmart near his court. 

“Although I believe that I have never acted with criminal intent, I wish to apologize for any embarrassment that my actions have caused my fellow judges, to the judicial system as a whole, and to my family,” Chiles wrote.

 The member of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors in whose district the East Mesa Justice Precinct falls is Steve Chucri.  He announced the instructions for applying to fill the opening (yes, there's a typo, but it isn't mine and it doesn't affect the meaning of the statement.  As such, it stays :) ) -

Following the official resignation of Justice of the Peace Mark Chiles, effective May 31, 2013, Supervisor Steve Chucri announced the process and timeline for appointing Chiles’ replacement.

Interested individuals should submit a letter of interest and resume (including the individual’s home address, email address, and contact phone number) to the Clerk of the Board by 5:00 PM, Friday, May 24

. All documents filed with the Clerk’s Office will become public records. 

Per state law, all applicants must live in the East Mesa Justice Court District (§11-402) and be registered Republicans (§16-230(A)(2)). The individual appointed to fill the vacancy will serve out the remainder of the term which ends December 31, 2014.

Send letter of interest and resume to:
Fran McCarroll
Clerk of the Board
Maricopa County Board of Supervisors
301 West Jefferson, 10th Floor
Phoenix, AZ 85003
Phone: 602-506-3766
Fax: 602-506-6402
Email: ClerkBoard@mail.maricopa.gov

 The press release mentions the two legal requirements (live in the district and be a Republican, a member of the same party as Chiles), but there are some characteristics that are recommended (though not legally required) -

JPs should have rubber arms.  They sign their names.  A lot.

JPs should have thick skins.  At least half the people who appear in front of them go away unhappy, and some have been known to express that unhappiness.  Loudly.

JPs should have patience.  More than half of the people who appear in front of them know little or nothing about the legal system and need explanations.

JPs should be willing to answer their phone at all hours.  They get phone calls from police agencies for telephonic warrants day or night, seven days a week.

JPs are the highest-paid elected officials in Arizona (yes, more than even the governor.  Maricopa County JPs: `$105K; the governor: $95K).  They should have the good taste not to shop (or shoplift) at WalMart.

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors: the race to 3 is on...

...3, as in the number of votes from the remaining supes needed by a candidate to be named to fill the vacancy on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors left by the recently resigned/retired Max Wilson...

Brahm Resnik of AZCentral.com has posted the information on the 14 people who have officially submitted their names for consideration for the appointment.

Note: there may end up being more candidates - the deadline for candidates to declare their interest in the appointment is Friday.  If you are a Republican who lives in Supervisor District 4, you too can be a member of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors!  Seriously, those are the two main qualifications for the appointment.

Many of the 14 candidates (so far) are people who may be familiar to regular readers (with some notes from their submissions or their past histories):

Peoria City Council member Ron Aames

Peoria Mayor Bob Barrett

Former county schools superintendent Sandra Dowling (as the victim of a past BOS power play/witch hunt, her candidacy may be something of a long shot)

Avondale City Council member Jim Buster

Former Arrowhead Justice of the Peace John Keegan (husband of former AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction Lisa Graham Keegan).  Possibly the front-runner.  Reason?  He lists as one of his favorite hobbies firing his "full scale American Civil War howitzer".  May be something that the supes want on their side during their next tiff with Joe Arpaio.

Former state legislator and a 2012 primary opponent of Wilson, Jean McGrath.  Highlight of her legislative career: she ran a bill to ban opposite sex overnight visits in dorms at state universities.  Hint: she wasn't trying to score points with her LGBT constituents.  The bill didn't pass, and I'm guessing that it would have been thoroughly ignored even if it had passed.

Goodyear City Council member Joanne Osborne.  She likes to play solitaire and has lots of books to read about "business, leadership, business, and faith".  I guess that's better than a howitzer.

Litchfield Park Mayor Thomas Schoaf

Former state legislator Bob Blendu

Former state legislator Jack Harper, a frequent subject of not-so-random musings here.  Many things have been said and written about his "colorful" political activities, but for this, the highlight is from his submission: on his resume, he lists as one of his qualifications for the job (which is what a resume is all about) that he is a "Life Member of the National Rifle Association".


The selection of a new member of the may take place as early as next week.  No matter who is appointed, they will serve until the 2014 election when the voters will choose someone to serve out the remainder of the term (until 2016)

Update: 2012 Campaign Committees+

Not just campaign committees this time around, possible ballot questions too!

...Ginger Rough of the Arizona Republic has coverage of the filing of paperwork for eight possible initiative questions by a heretofore undheard-of organization called Fox Petitions.

The initiative proposals include -

I-05-2012, Smart Prison Population Act, mandating the expansion of the practice of home detention for non-violent prisoners

I-06-2012, Supporting Adoptable Cats and Dogs Act, prohibiting the euthanization of healthy and adoptable cats and dogs in Arizona

I-07-2012, Workers' Rights Act, barring employers from firing employees for behavior outside of the employment relationship, except under specific conditions

I-08-2012, Honest Officials Act, it's too difficult to sum up in one sentence, but I call it the "public officials can't lie to the public" act

I-09-2012, No Criminal Exemptions Act, barring the enforcement of a criminal law against any person if that law exempts a person or class of persons.  The explanation says it specifically targets laws that exempt elected officials and government employees, but it is crafted very broadly

I-10-2012, Victimless Crime Act, barring the prosecution or incarceration of a person for behavior that doesn't harm another person, another person's property, or an animal

I-11-2012, Fair Crime Act, mandating that in the event that one criminal act that may violate multiple sections of law can only be prosecuted under one of those sections, the one with the least severe punishment

I-12-2012. Wrongful Conviction Compensation Act, compensating the victims of wrongful convictions and incarceration at $1000 per day of wrongful incarceration

Some of the proposals are intriguing, and I may sign one or more of the petitions if the opportunity presents itself (I especially like the one that would force public officials to stop lying to the public).

One other initiative was recently submitted.

I-04-2012, Go Solar In Arizona Economic Development Act, creating a $2.25 per watt personal solar tax credit.  I support the sentiment, but this proposal is problematical.  I don't like tax credits in general, and I don't like the idea of a specific number being protected by the Voter Protection Act (if this makes it to the ballot and actually passes, we're stuck with it, even if it turns out to bust the state's budget).  This one reeks of an attempt to create by ballot initiative another Alt-Fuels scam.

In Maricopa County news, restaurant industry lobbyist Steve Chucri has opened a candidate committee for a run at Don Stapley's seat on the county board of supervisors.  Chucri is challenging Stapley in the R primary in Stapley's heavily Republican district.  Congressman David Schweikert, whose district overlaps Stapley's in Scottsdale, is honorary chair of Chucri's campaign.

In Scottsdale news, Guy Phillips, a 2010 candidate for City Council, is now listed as a 2012 candidate.  However, the link for his 2012 committee statement of organization opens up a copy of the same form for his 2010 campaign.  Scottsdale's election information page is here.  In 2010, he ran as a tea party type with no answers for Scottsdale's problems other than stock tea party dogma.  He lost.  If he actually is running, it will be interesting to see if learned anything from the experience.

In Tempe news, Linda Spears has announced that she is running for mayor, though no campaign paperwork is yet posted on the City of Tempe's website (when I wrote the last one of these posts, she had taken out a candidate packet, but hadn't yet announced what office she had her sights on)

In case you forgot about it, county redistricting is proceeding apace

Not really an "analysis" post; more of an "information" post...

Lost in the ginned-up hubbub surrounding the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC) has been the fact that while the AIRC is drawing new Congressional and legislative district maps, most of the counties in Arizona are similarly drawing new districts for county-level offices like county supervisor.

Maricopa County (my home) has a redistricting page here, courtesy the Maricopa County Recorder's website.  A ,pdf of a powerpoint presentation on the county redistricting process is here.

The deadline for submitting suggested maps has passed (June 1) but people have until October 1 to submit comments on five citizen-submitted plans (here, here, here, here, and here) and one county-crafted plan.

Call me a cynic, but something tells me that the county-crafted plan is most likely to be implemented - not that the supes will really find any of the citizen-submitted plans truly objectionable - all result in one overwhelmingly Democratic district so Mary Rose Wilcox can keep her job and four Republican-heavy districts for the four Republicans on the MCBOS.  :) 

Given that the supes are in charge of their own redistricting, the proposed new districts look a *lot* like the current districts.  The only people who might find themselves in new supervisorial districts are those who live on the border of their current districts.

People like me.

Currently, I live in the tiny corner of Scottsdale that is in SD1, the embattled Fulton Brock's district.  Under the county-crafted proposal (and three of the citizen-submitted proposals), my area of Scottsdale would be transferred to SD2, Don Stapley's district.  Not a big difference in practical terms, but there is a bit of logic to the move - most of Scottsdale is already in SD2.

There are also a number of neighborhoods in south Scottsdale that are currently in SD3 (Andy Kunasek) that would also be moved into SD2 under the county-crafted plan.

Take a look at the plans, and if you wish to comment, there are two email links on the main page.