Short attention span musing

...The race isn't over yet, not by a long shot, but Hillary Clinton went a long way toward securing the 2016 Democratic nomination for the presidency, and toward securing a general election victory, when she faced down the bullies masquerading as Republican members of Congress this past week.

And I am hardly the only person who thinks that.

For what it's worth, I am a supporter Bernie Sanders and believe that Clinton is *far* too close to Wall Street and other 1%'ers (and their lackeys).

I think Sanders is far more concerned with working to enhance the lives of average Americans than any other candidate, D or R.

Supporting him is an easy choice.

Having said that, she did incredibly well, staying cool, calm, and collected in the face of a marathon session thinly-veiled partisan bloviating dressed up as questioning.

Her biggest gain from the session won't be in attracting hardcore supporters of Sanders and the other Democratic candidates, it will be in attracting the support of voters who are late arrivals to the primary season.  The image of Clinton facing Trey Gowdy and his merry bunch of cutthroats and not even batting an eyelash will be the main image in their minds when those voters figure out who they think is the best candidate.


...The Republican field of candidates in CD1 is growing, as Paul Babeu, Pinal County Sheriff, and David Gowan, speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives, have announced their candidacies (Ken Bennett, former AZSOS, and Gary Kiehne, a businessman, are already in the R field).

Babeu seems to be appealing to the pro-LGBT nativist portion of the GOP electorate.  Lending new meaning to the term "microtargeting"...

On the other hand, Gowan has become renowned for his "tin ear", politically speaking.

In other words, my prediction is that these two will be fighting it out for third and fourth place.  Unless someone else gets into the race (which may yet happen - perennial R candidate Wendy Rogers has been establishing ties to CD1).

Then they'll be duking it out over fourth and fifth place...


...News broke Saturday that a deal has been reached in the ongoing lawsuit over the state's consistent, and unconstitutional, underfunding of the state's education system.  Details are sketchy at this point (OK, they're nonexistent at this point), but it looks likely that there will be a special session of the legislature during the first two weeks of November (after that, the calendar will turn to the holiday season, a period during which no non-Maricopa legislator wants to be in Phoenix)..

That issue will be worthy of a separate post (or posts) in coming days; today, however, it highlights the failure of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to do its job.

In LD26 (Tempe and west Mesa), there is a senate seat that was vacated at the end of September when Ed Ableser resigned to accept a job in Nevada.

Shortly after that, the Democratic PCs of LD26 sent the names of three nominees to fill the seat to the MCBOS.

Word then was that the supes were going to make the appointment at their meeting on October 21st.

They didn't.

This isn't the first time that they've played partisan games with the district - in 2012, there was a vacancy in the old LD17 House contingent (most of the old LD17 became most of the new LD26 after redistricting).  At first, the supes refused to make an appointment, and then they tried to give it to someone who had just won election to the House to start his term limits clock early.  Observers quickly figured out what the supes were intending to do, and that nominee withdrew his name for consideration for the appointment.  Ultimately, nothing happened.

At the time, while there was some grumbling over the supes' high-handed tactics, in general people didn't sweat it that much - the appointment would have mostly been pro-forma as the lege was not in session and there was not any expectation of a special session.

Now, however, things are different.

Now, a special session of the lege is imminent, one regarding what is perhaps the issue that is most significant to average Arizonans - their children's education.

Now, as this looms, one of the areas of Maricopa County is significantly underrepresented.

Well, one thing is the same - the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors is shirking its duty.

The three nominees (L--R) State Rep. Andrew Sherwood, LD26 Chair Sam Pstross, State Rep. Juan Mendez

At this point, the supes don't have any regular meetings scheduled to take place before the likely dates of a special legislative session

GOPer candidate for Congress politicizes mass shootings

...Not in a "let's examine gun laws and the culture of violence in the U.S." sort of way, but in a "let's blame the Democrats" sort of way...

From the Arizona Star, written by Becky Pallack (emphasis added) -

Congressional District 1 candidate Gary Kiehne made extreme comments about gun rights at a Republican primary debate Saturday.

Asked how he would protect gun rights, Kiehne said he owns more guns and ammunition than the other candidates and said everyone should own a gun.

When it comes to mass shootings, “if you look at all the fiascos that have occurred, 99 percent of them have been by Democrats pulling their guns out and shooting people,” Kiehne said to an audience of about 60 people. “So I don’t think you have a problem with the Republicans.”

Audio of his comments is here.

It would be easy to dismiss the rantings of Kienhe as just that, rantings.

Of someone who doesn't have a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July...of winning.

Except for two points:

1.  He's a Republican, and this guff appeals to a large part of their base.

2.  His opponents, just as extreme as him, have a major detail working against their success - they are sitting Republican legislators.  I can think of only two such sitting R legislators who have moved on to higher office* during a year in which they were members of the lege -

John Huppenthal, former state senator and current State Superintendent of Public Instruction (no observer can figure out how someone as nearly-universally disliked can keep winning elections, but he does)

Matt Salmon, who moved from the lege to the US House, but did it during the 1990s when the lege wasn't as much a punchline as it is today.

Of course, out of fairness to Kiehne, I should point out that at least he is consistent.


* - For purposes of this post, "higher office" refers to federal or statewide (line of succession) office.  Many legislators have moved on to other offices - county BOS, mayor/city council, even Arizona Corporation Commission.  However, I cannot find any more recent examples of Republican legislators moving directly from the lege to higher profile federal or state office.

Kwasman pulling out the dog whistle out of his campaign quiver

"Dog whistle politics" rearing its ugly head in Arizona.  Yet again.

From RationalWiki -

Dog whistle politics usually refers to the use of certain code words or phrases that are designed to be understood by only a small section of the populace. Generally speaking, these are phrases that have special meaning to that subsection entirely independent of its meaning to others, and represent a particularly insidious use of loaded language.

The term alludes to the sound of a dog whistle, which can only be heard by the intended audience (the dog). In theory at least, dog whistle terms are only noticed and understood by the people they are intended for.

During the era of the civil rights movement, and even today, the anti-civil rights crowd liked to use "dog-whistle" euphemisms to talk about their support for institutionalized bigotry, unfettered hatred, and outright lynchings.

They used words and phrases like "states' rights", "elitism", and "heritage" to put a "civil" mask to cover their hatred of minorities and to impugn their critics in ways that weren't overtly offensive but would rouse their base.

Starting in 2008, when America elected its first African-American president, Barack Obama, there has been a rise in "dog whistle politics" nationally, and in every state, particularly those that were part of or sympathetic to the Confederacy in the Civil War.

One example: Birtherism.

This week's Arizona example was State Rep. Brenda Barton's comparison of President Obama to one of history's biggest monsters, Adolph Hitler.

Now, her statement was probably too overt to be considered "dog whistle", but the response of one of Barton's colleagues in the AZ House is most definitely "dog whistle".

Rep. Adam Kwasman (R-LD11) is a candidate for Congress in CD1, and he is facing a primary battle with AZ House Speaker Andy Tobin and Gary Kiehne, a rancher from rural Arizona.

He tweeted this about Barton on Saturday morning -

"Heritage"?

Really?  Given Kwasman's move to the extreme right for the primary (not that he was ever a "moderate" - see the video of the Kwasman's speech against Medicaid restoration, and his opposition to medical care for poor people), my only question is..

Will Kwasman purchase kerosene from campaign funds, or will he buy it "off book"?

Arizona Republic editorial board to its readers: Arizona may be in lousy shape, but you should vote for the status quo

Liberals like to claim that the Arizona Republic is a "conservative" paper, but it's not. (Though to be fair, many of them remember the not-so-distant days when the Rep was officially named the "Arizona Republican" or less officially served as the press release outlet for the Arizona Republican Party.)

Conservatives like to claim that the Rep is a "liberal" paper, but it isn't.  (It just isn't a mouthpiece for the "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" wing of the AZGOP.)

Instead, the Arizona Republic is a "corporate" paper, dedicated to defending corporate profit margins.  Since most corporations operate in such a way as to derive the maximum profit from the political status quo, the Republic has become a staunch defender of that status quo.

Their latest list of election endorsements clearly illustrate this tendency.

- They passed over Terry Goddard in giving their endorsement in the race for governor to Jan Brewer.  They called Goddard an "articulate, dedicated servant of the people of this state" yet gave the nod to Brewer, citing her ability to "handle the legislature" (apparently, the Rep's editorial board slept through all of 2009) and her disbanding of the state's Department of Commerce in favor of a meaningless (and authority-less) "Commerce Authority."  What they also liked was her support for "enhancing prospects for job creation" - better known as blanket tax cuts directed to corporations.

- They ignored Rodney Glassman (literally!  He wasn't even mentioned in the article!) in giving their endorsement for U.S. Senate to John McCain.  In the opinion piece, they cited "McCain's role in all those great national and world debates," such as the debates over the war in Iraq and campaign finance reform.  What they didn't cite were McCain's accomplishments for Arizona.  They couldn't cite those accomplishments, because there aren't any.  This particular endorsement also isn't a surprise, even aside from its "status quo" characteristics - the Rep's editorial board has been in the McCain family pocket for decades (is Dan Nowicki the Republic's reporter who is embedded with McCain's staff, or is he the McCain staffer embedded with the Republic?  Either way, the effect, and the final product, is the same...)

- The Rep's endorsement of Ann Kirkpatrick in the CD1 race also serves to illustrate the Rep's "status quo" bias - she's an incumbent, and while a Democrat, she's a conservative one who thoroughly supports Big Business.  Note: While I too support and recommend voting for her, it's because she is the better candidate, not a great candidate.

- The logic the Rep's editorial board used when passing over Penny Kotterman when endorsing John Huppenthal for State Superintendent of Public Instruction astounds me, even when allowing for their "status quo" bias.  They cite his 18 years of legislative experience focusing on education issues and then follow it up with this quote -

We believe the sort of reform advocated by John Huppenthal is best for improving Arizona's often dismal comparative standing on the crucial questions of how best to improve schools.

Ummm...do they understand that Huppenthal and the "reforms" pimped by him are some of the major reasons for Arizona's "dismal comparative standing" on most education-related metrics?  And that his experience in the lege has included years of trying to slowly destroy public education in Arizona?

Their endorsement is as sensible as a doctor sitting down with a patient who has been diagnosed with lung cancer after decades of smoking and suggesting that the patient could cure the cancer by smoking more cigarettes.

- In a bit of a surprise, the Rep's editorial board endorsed Felecia Rotellini over Tom Horne for Attorney General.  They complimented her as "smart and unflappable," which is very true, but Tom Horne is a current office holder and an establishment Republican.  This would seem to disprove my "status quo bias" position, until one remembers that, like Rotellini, Terry Goddard, the current Attorney General, is smart, unflappable, and a Democrat. 

- However, the Rep did spring one big surprise on voters, and not in a good way.  They twisted themselves like a pretzel to find a way to ignore Jon Hulburd and give their CD3 endorsement to Ben Quayle.

First, they opened up their piece with -

Ben Quayle, a Republican, may be the best-known congressional candidate in the country who isn't a member of the "tea party." That shouldn't matter to voters in District 3, which stretches from north-central Phoenix to New River. They don't need a celebrity. They need the best representative they can elect.

In the next paragraph, they follow that up with -

If this were a job interview, Democrat Jon Hulburd would have the large advantage. He rose to become a partner at Fennemore Craig, one of Phoenix's top law firms. He left to start an import business. He has career and community accomplishments that Quayle can't match.

So naturally, after pointing out Quayle's celebrity status and saying that CD3 doesn't need a celebrity in Congress, and Hulburd's vastly superior resume and qualifications, they gave their endorsement to Quayle -

But elections aren't just about resumes. They're about ideas. And on that score, Quayle is the better candidate to succeed John Shadegg. Quayle is well-versed in the issues. He speaks with passion and conviction.

So, the Rep soft-pedals Quayle's lack of qualifications for any elected office, much less a seat in Congress, and completely ignores his pre-candidacy career as a writer for the website Dirty Scottsdale, under the porn-riffic nom de plume "Brock Landers."

Could the Quayle family's previous ownership of the Republic have influenced the endorsement?  Nahhhh, couldn't be...

The headline for the Rep's endorsement was "Ben Quayle offers candor, conviction."

Given that Quayle's previous "candor" indicated a deep disrespect for women and could lead to convictions of the criminal variety if he becomes part of the free-for-all social environment in D.C.'s political subculture, instead of being a surprise, perhaps the Rep's endorsement of his [possible] ascension to Congress would be in perfect keeping with their desire to maintain the status quo.

Less than a week ago, the Republic actually brought themselves some credit with their list of endorsements for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District - the candidates they endorsed were intelligent, educated, experienced, and highly-qualified for the job.

Apparently, however, those qualities are desirable only in candidates for lower-profile (though extremely important) offices. 

I may agree with some of the Rep's coming endorsements, but where I will support the candidates who are better for Arizona, they'll be supporting the candidates who they see as most protective of their preferred status quo.

Crickets chirping

There's been a lot of bluster and name-calling from Republican candidates during this year's election season -

"Obamacare!"

"Immigrants!"

"Cut taxes!"

"Immigrants!!"

"Unions!"

"Immigrants!!!"

"Lather, Rinse, Repeat!"


Well, it turns out there is a quick and efficient way to get Republicans to shut up - challenge them to stand up and actually explain their positions civilly.


- Candidate for governor Terry Goddard has challenged Jan Brewer to a series of debates all over the state, but she has refused to participate in any more than the one that she was required to participate in as a condition of accepting Clean Elections funding.

She has refused to do so, but given her thorough faceplant of a performance in the CE debate, her reluctance in understandable.  Though not acceptable.

- Treasurer candidate Andrei Cherny has challenged Doug Ducey to a series of debates, but thus far, he has also declined to participate, perhaps out of fear that his financial misdeeds (here and here) would become a topic of discussion.

- Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick has challenged Republican nominee Paul Gosar to some debates, but the career dentist and tea party favorite is avoiding a direct confrontation with the incumbent in CD1.

- Jon Hulburd, the Democratic nominee in CD3, has challenged Ben "Dirty Scottsdale" Quayle to some debates, but apparently, the Republican nominee is hoping Daddy's name recognition and money connections will keep him from having to mount an actual campaign.

- CD2 Congressional candidate John Thrasher reports that Republican incumbent Trent Franks has agreed to a debate.  Just not to "minor" details like a place and a time...


In fact, the only R candidate who has accepted a debate challenge outside of one required by Clean Elections rules is John McCain, who will be debating Democratic challenger Rodney Glassman on September 26.

Other than that one example, however, the only sound one hears when the R candidates are challenged to put up or shut up is the sound of

Crickets chirping.

About the recent CD5 poll numbers (and CD1 and CD8)

Serving to fill in the deafening silence from the RW blogs (zero posts and counting so far) regarding Jan Brewer's performance has been the recently released poll numbers purporting to show that the R candidates in CDs 1, 5, and 8 are head of or tied with the Democratic incumbents in those districts.

What the R blogs haven't mentioned in their crowing about the poll are the partisan biases of the groups behind the poll.

The poll was commissioned by a 501c(4) group called the American Action Network (AAN).  It's part of an organization of different groups created to serve as a Republican advocacy effort "independent" of the Republican Party in its quest to regain control of the federal government.

Among those involved with AAN -

Rob Collins, president of AAN, and former chief of staff to Eric Cantor, Minority Whip in the U.S. House of Representatives

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum (one of the related groups mentioned above) was a senior adviser to John McCain during his unsuccessful 2008 presidential campaign

Norm Coleman, CEO of AAN, a Republican former U.S. Senator (lost to Al Franken.  YES!)

Fred Malek, an AAN board member, was a Nixon administration operative who has become a big fundraiser for the Republican party (and John McCain)

Haley Barbour, an AAN board member, is the Republican Governor of Mississippi and head of the Republican Governors Association

The polling was conducted  by the firm Ayers McHenry, a company that openly, even proudly, proclaims that it is partisan and supportive of Republican candidates and causes.  Not that reading their website's list of clients isn't a dead giveaway.

The polling data has been released through AAN's affiliate group, American Action Forum (AAF).

I'm not qualified to discuss the technical aspects of the way that the poll was conducted, but there seem to be issues with the methodology of the poll - a small sample size, a universe that seems to be skewed toward self-identified conservatives out of proportion to their presence in the population as a whole, and questions, that if not quite of "push poll" quality, definitely look to be designed to elicit certain desired responses.

All of which serve to undermine the credibility of the results, making it seem likely that the "poll" is less "scientific research" and more "messaging research" or even "wishful thinking."

At best, this should be considered to be a third party-funded "internal poll."  As the Parraz campaign (and I) learned in the just-completed primary cycle, internal polls have a tendency to match the spin that is placed on them and not to reflect real sentiment.

To be sure, the Democrats in question - Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1), Gabrielle Giffords (CD8), and Harry Mitchell (CD5) - have tough races ahead of them.

Giffords and Mitchell both face significant Republican registration advantages in their districts (~18K in CD8, ~ 40K in CD5).  Kirkpatrick has a Democratic advantage (~ 20K) to work with in CD1, but her district is heavily rural and as recently as 2006 elected a [corrupt] Republican (Rick Renzi).  It's a district that has been able to elect conservative Democrat Jack Brown and (relatively) moderate Republican Bill Konopnicki to the Arizona House of Representatives (LD5, each).

In short, all three knew early on, even before their first races for the seats in Congress that they now occupy, that they would *never* have easy paths to reelection, and have been running intelligent, energetic campaigns ever since.

Caveat:  I have volunteered for the Mitchell campaign in the recent past, and will again in the near future.

When more reputable and independent polling organizations, such as Gallup or Behavior Research Center (aka - Rocky Mountain Polls), weigh in on AZ's congressional races, those results will have much more credibility than a glorified internal poll.

Primary Day is here: prediction time

Greg at Espresso Pundit went all in with his predictions, and Donna at Democratic Diva steadfastly and with dignity declined to make any predictions to avoid undermining/offending the ultimate winners in the Democratic primaries.

While I am not the "pundit" that Patterson is, neither am I as dignified as Donna (hey, I'm a Red Sox fan, and *you* try shouting "Yankees Suck!!" while maintaining proper decorum :) ).  As such, I'm going to make my own predictions.

Disclaimer:  My predictions are not an indication of a preference in Democratic primary races; in fact, I'll be predicting a winner who is other than the candidate I voted for in a couple of the races.  In addition, my predictions in Republican races are based on very distant observations, not on any knowledge of how R primary voters think.

In other words, no wagering allowed on any of this.  :)


On to the fearless predictions...

R Senate - McCain over Hayworth easily.  It may not be the blowout that it should be, but it won't be that close.

D Senate - This one is tough.  I'll go with Parraz over Glassman in a very close race.  The info about Glassman's campaign, however, may have come out too late to affect the outcome since early ballots were sent out, and returned, weeks before the info came to light.

R CD5 - Schweikert.  Far from a perfect candidate but he's run a solid primary campaign.  I think the big question is if Ward will hold on to second.  Look for Bitter Smith or Salvino to possibly sneak into the silver medal position.

R Maricopa County Attorney - Should be Romley in a cakewalk, but if Patterson is correct about this being a low turnout election (and I think he is), Montgomery could make it interesting.

R CD3 - Got no clue, other than it won't be Quayle.  Even R primary voters want more substance in a candidate.

R AG - Horne in a close one.  Thomas is just too damaged by his professional and ethical missteps.

D AG - Just a "feeling", but Rotellini seems to have the support of most of the Ds that I know.  Having said that, any of the three Ds running (Rotellini, Lujan, Rabago) would make a better AG than either Horne or Thomas.  (Of course, so would I, and my legal experience consists of serving as a juror in a Scottsdale shoplifting case...but I digress.  :) )

R Superintendent of Public Instruction - Huppenthal.  In any other state he'd have been relegated to the political scrap heap years ago, but in AZ, he's a Republican hero.  With the name recognition to go with it among R primary voters.

D Superintendent of Public Instruction - No clue, not even a "feeling".  Both Kotterman and Williams are dedicated educators and well-qualified for the position.  I just have no idea who is going to win the D nod.

D Secretary of State - Wercinski, though with Deschene's outside-of-Maricopa County contacts, he could make this one a barn burner.

R CD1, CD8, Treasurer - Don't know, don't care.  Kirkpatrick, Giffords, and Cherny will be the best choices in November, no matter who the Rs nominate in August.

R Governor (just for kicks) - Brewer.  Includimg me, there are maybe 10 people in AZ who realize that Jette is an intelligent, thoughtful candidate.  Everybody else's loss.  I wouldn't vote for him, but AZ needs more candidates like him who are less chained to an absolutist ideology and more concerned with finding real-world solutions to real-world problems.

CQPolitics has coverage here; FiveThirtyEight.com coverage here.

FEC Reports - Congressional primary races

Some of these are eye-opening...

All info courtesy the website of the Federal Election Commission, reporting period 7/1/2010 thru 8/4/2010 (three weeks before the primary)...

In order of interest to me (call it "blogger's privilege" or something :) ) -

CD5

Schweikert: $225529.45 cash on hand, raised slightly less than $36K during the period, spent over $244K.  Debt of $500K (to himself).

Ward: $172944.21 on hand, raised $28657, spent $264K, $315548.83 in debt.

Bitter Smith: $48454.60 on hand, raised less than $20K, spent slightly less than $83K, $81329.02 debt.

Salvino: $27.6K on hand, raised less than $10K, spent more than $91K, debt of $210958.04.

Spinks: $41.82 cash on hand (not "41.82K" but forty-one dollars and eighty-two cents), raised $170, spent $557, no debt.

Gentry:  I couldn't find a report for the most recent reporting period.

Analysis*: It isn't over per se, but Salvino, Spinks and Gentry are toast, and Bitter Smith is on life support.  Ward has a shot, but Schweikert seems to think he has it wrapped up, and is coasting a little, ticking off supporters of some of the other candidates.

These folks seem to be Republican B-teamers - perennial wannabes looking for one last shot at glory or carpetbaggers looking for a district where they can buy a nomination.  Not talking smack here, one of these folks could move up to A-team status (Bitter Smith and Schweikert have held offices before, and Ward has access to cash), but they've got it to prove.


CD3

Crump: Less than $7300 on hand, raised $11456, spent slightly over $17K.  No debt.

Gorman: Less than $26K on hand, raised $14K, spent $5371.  No debt.

Morris: Slightly more than $40K on hand, raised $16K, spent $74K, $50K debt.

Moak: $121K on hand, raised a little more than $15K, spent more than $577K.  Debt of more than $592K ($300K in this period alone).

Parker: $63K on hand, raised $36K, spent $123K, debt of $26431.60.

Quayle: $429K on hand, raised $218K, spent $473K, $1223 debt.

Waring: $29.5K on hand, raised $17K, spent $81K, debt of $41K.

Winkler: $24.5K on hand, raised $5225, spent $8253, no debt.

I cannot find reports for the other candidates (Branch, Hull).

Analysis*: Based on the money numbers, the race is between Quayle (tapping Daddy's friends for cash) and Moak (placing a big bet on his own candidacy), but Parker, Waring, Gorman, and Morris still have a heartbeat.  In a free-for-all like this one, money for mailers and ad buys may not mean as much as an effective street-level GOTV machine.  Crump, Winkler, Branch, and Hull are done.  Quayle should be just as done after his recent gaffes, but Daddy's money and name may purchase some short memories among GOP primary voters.

Probably the strongest set of candidates that the GOP has fielded this year (3 former legislators, 2 former mayors, 1 son of a former USVP, a well-funded businessman, and Morris, who is moderate, female, intelligent, articulate, attractive, Jewish, and Cuban.  In Florida, they'd have already cancelled the election and administered the oath of office to her, but in AZ she'll be lucky to break out of single digits), but they are slicing each other to ribbons and whittling down the funds that donors will have available in the general election.  Look for lots of independent expenditures from GOP-friendly groups as they try to retain this seat in the general.


CD8

Paton: almost $187K on hand, raised $46K, spent $146K, debt of slightly less than $13K.

Kelly: almost $79K on hand, raised $78K, spent $159K, no debt.

The other candidates have dropped out or haven't filed reports that I can find.

Analysis*:  This race could be the one to watch - Paton is the candidate of the GOP "establishment" and may be the better general election candidate, but Kelly has enough Tea Party support to pull the upset, and enough cash to make a last minute push.


CD7

McClung: $15K on hand, raised slightly less than $11K, spent slightly less than $18K, debt of $2300.

Myers: more than $23K on hand, raised $1820, spent $56K, debt of more than $95K.

I couldn't find reports for the other candidates. 

Analysis*: The top GOP candidates to unseat Raul Grijalva raised less than $13K between them.  Candidates who are toast in other districts were able to raise more.  Any other questions? 


CD1

Bowers: A little more than $10K on hand, raised $11K, spent a little less than $15K, no debt.

Gosar: Nearly $41K on hand, raised slightly less than $40K, spent $130K, no debt.

Hay: More than $116K on hand, raised $32K, spent $60K, debt of $100K.

Jensen: Reporting $1195 cash on hand on the summary page, but also reports $1595 raised and $1595 spent.  Hand-written reports, wife or other relative as treasurer.  'Nuff said.

Mehta: Less than $2600 on hand, raised $7300, spent $25K, debt of slight less than $11K.

I could not locate reports for the other candidates.

Analysis*: Hay's got the cash, Gosar seems to have the momentum.  Hay may be holding on to the cash to pay down her debt after the primary.  If the CD5 Rs are B-teamers, these folks are C- and D- teamers.


CD4

Contreras: $2500 on hand, raised $6800, spent $4300, $25K in debt.

Penalosa hasn't filed a report that I could find, but his July report showed numbers in line with Contreras'.

Analysis*: Either one could win the R nomination, though considering that incumbent Ed Pastor has $1.5 million on hand, I'm not sure that qualifies as a good thing for whichever one wins the nod. 


CD2

Black reports $69 (not $69000 or even $6900, but *$69.00* cash on hand in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Franks (cash on hand of $69K).


CD6

Smith reports cash on hand of $5593 in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Flake (almost $800K on hand).

Analysis*: Both Franks and Flake face primary challenges from the right, of all places, but other than the hardcore Tea Party types, no one can say (with a straight face, anyway) that Franks and Flake are "too liberal" to be "good" Republicans.  The lack of financial support for the upstarts indicates that both are safe from serious intra-GOP challenges.

Key:  "Analysis*" equals "opportunity to let loose a little snark."

Note: The candidates who didn't file reports that I could locate are all long shots anyway, so I'm not worrying about them.  If one of them pulls out a primary victory, I'll eat my computer**.

** = Not really.  I will admit to making a mistake, however.  Call it "eating crow instead of a computer."

Note2: I didn't really cover the Democratic races because there aren't any primary races for Congressional seats.

Health care vote coming up in Congress

Later this week, or perhaps early next week, the US House will vote on a health care reform bill. Its passage (assuming it passes, a likely occurrence but far from a guaranteed one) won't signal the end of the HCR debate - the Senate will still have to deal with it.

However, now is the time to help ensure HCR's passage through the House - contact your Congressional representative and urge them to support it.

My brief letter to Congressman Harry Mitchell, doing just that -

Dear Congressman Mitchell,

Within the next week or so, Congress will be voting on a health care reform bill.

Last year, you supported an HCR bill with a strong public option (Thank you!), and I am writing to you to urge you to continue to do so.

The current system of health insurance caters to the whims and desires of corporate bigwigs and lobbyists, while denying care for the patients who need it.

Throughout your political career, you have been known for standing up for the needs of your constituents. Right now, thousands of your constituents need you to stand strong one more time, this time against against the falsehoods and smears of those who are profiting from the current dysfunctional system of health insurance.

Congressman Mitchell, thank you for all that you have done for the people of your district.

Regards,

[cpmaz]

At this point, I expect that long and involved missives aren't necessary, but short notes to let our Congressmen and -women know that people are still watching and care about HCR are definitely in order this week.

Congressman Mitchell's online contact/email form is here.

For those who live in districts other than CD5...

Ann Kirkpatrick (CD1) can be contacted here
Ed Pastor (CD4) can be contacted here
Raul Grijalva (CD7) can be contacted here
Gabrielle Giffords (CD8) can be contacted here

If you live in CDs 2, 3, and 6, you are represented by hardcore Republicans who are opposed to any kind of health care reform, no matter how much their constituents urgently need it to pass. Whether you support or oppose HCR, those reps don't care - they made up their minds before it was even proposed.

Later...

2010 Campaign Committee Update

Some of this material has been covered elsewhere but it merits inclusion here...

...In CD3, attorney Paulina Morris has filed for a run at the R nomination to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg. A name familiar to most AZ political geeks, Lisa Graham Keegan, has signed on as Morris' campaign treasurer. Keegan is a McCain confidant/ally and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction.

...In CD8, R candidate Thomas Carlson has ended his run for the chance to take on Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords. I don't know much about him or his reasons for running, but his reason for dropping out may be related to the fact that he raised a little over $2K for his campaign.

...In CD8, R state senator Jonathan Paton has finally resigned from the Senate to pursue his quest to unseat Giffords. He filed for his run weeks ago, so this wasn't unexpected.

...In CD1, R candidate Thomas Zaleski of Sedona has filed for a run at Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick.

...In CD5, perennial R candidate Susan Bitter Smith has filed for another run at Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell. She is a former member of the Scottsdale City Council and a current member of the Board of Directors of the Central Arizona Project. She is also a long-time lobbyist, mostly for the telecom/cable TV industry. Her entry into the race has long been rumored, so this isn't exactly a surprise.

...Also in CD5, R candidate Eric Wnuck has withdrawn from the race for his party's nomination. He cited family/business concerns, but a growing field in the R primary and a shrinking pool of available money may have had an impact on his decision, too. In his latest campaign filing, he listed donations at $52K; his first filing listed contributions of over $160K. That's a significant drop during a period when most campaigns are ramping *up* their fundraising efforts.

In Arizona offices...

...State Rep. David Bradley has filed for a run at Arizona Corporation Commission (filer ID 201000475). AZBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona has coverage here.

...Doug Ducey, a Scottsdale businessman, has filed to enter the race for the Republican nomination for State Treasurer. Ducey is the former CEO of Cold Stone Creamery, so he has deep pockets, but he isn't exactly as popular as Cold Stone.

...In a sign that the Rs consider Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard to be a very strong candidate, the Republican Governor's Association has set up a PAC in Arizona so that they can expend monies attempting to influence the governor's race this year (filer ID 201000467).

...In Scottsdale, Republican Linda Milhaven, the former Chair of the Scottsdale Cultural Council, has entered the race for Scottsdale City Council. Her entry into the race has long been rumored and isn't a surprise. There are now eight active committees for runs for the three available seats on the Scottsdale City Council.

Later...

Tuesday's elections - some lessons

Yesterday, there were a few relatively high profile elections on the East Coast.

Call them the undercard to next year's mid-terms.

If they were on the same even-year schedule as most other elections, we probably wouldn't be talking about them, but since they are the only solid thing for political commentators to, ya know, "commentate" on, at least until next year, they've grabbed a lot of attention.

Today, pundits all over cable news are making their pronouncements on "what it all means" on the heels of the results.

Most of them consider the fact that Republican candidates won the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey to be a repudiation of President Obama.

And, as expected, every Republican who can find a microphone is absolutely crowing about it.
Most of them, pundit and Rep operative alike, are ignoring what should be one of the real lessons to be taken from yesterday's results.

Tip O'Neill wrote it more than a generation ago -

All Politics Is Local.

Not "All Politics Is Partisan."

In each of the governor's races, as well as the special election to fill a vacant Congressional seat in New York's 23rd District, there were local factors that strongly influenced the outcome of the balloting in those races.

One gubernatorial race featured a weakened incumbent while the other featured a candidate who was just plain weak. And in both races, worries about the economy played a big role in the results, too.

...At the start of his reelection campaign, incumbent, and now outgoing, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine was saddled with some of the highest property taxes in the country, one of the highest unemployment rates in the northeastern U.S. (9.8%), a pre-politics resume that included a lucrative stint as CEO of Goldman Sachs (not the jewel that it was pre-economic meltdown and bailout), and a level of personal unpopularity that sapped the enthusiasm of many New Jersey Democrats. That alone would have made his race something of an uphill battle, even for someone with his "self-funding" ability.

Mix in tawdry personal attacks on his opponent and a low turnout, and you have a recipe for an upset.

...In Virginia, the Democratic candidate could best be described as a "not ready for prime time" candidate. Creigh Deeds was an inarticulate and unenergetic "Blue Dog" wanna-be who was outfought for the political center by his opponent and the eventual winner, Bob McDonnell. McDonnell glossed over his extremely conservative social agenda in favor of a strong message on the economy.

Oh, and McDonnell had already defeated Deeds once before in a statewide race, the 2005 contest for VA AG.


In both races, while there were strong warning signs for President Obama, the Democrats, and incumbents of all political stripes ("it's the economy, stupid", low turnout among 2008 Obama voters), it seems to have come down local candidates and local conditions.

Of greater political portent may be the race to fill the vacant Congressional seat in NY-23.

After a race marked by a near-civil war within the GOP, with big-name "true" conservatives from all over the country flying in to support "their" candidate, a carpetbagger named Doug Hoffman, who was running as the Conservative Party candidate. They were so pugnacious in their criticisms of the GOP's own candidate, Dede Scozzafava, that she withdrew from the race this past weekend and endorsed the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens.

Those "true" conservatives rejoiced when Scozzafava exited from the race, figuring the way was now clear for Hoffman in a district that hasn't elected a Democrat in, like, *ever.*

Literally.

So naturally, Owens won.

What the "true" conservatives ignored is that fact that their candidate, Hoffman, wasn't actually from the district, nor did he know anything about it. When asked about the needs and priorities of the district, he standard response was "I'll get back to you on that."

Have no doubt about it - the GOP will reclaim the seat in next year's election, holding it for two years. At which point, the district will be probably be redistricted out of existence because of population shifts leading to NY losing one or two seats in Congress after next year's census.

But for now, the Democratic majority in the House has grown.

After the hubbub dies down, the "big minds" will have time to actually think about the results beyond their immediate gut reactions.

Once that happens, expect three things -

1. Democrats will work at motivating last year's Obama voters to turn out for next year's elections, while the Republicans will work at redoubling their voter suppression efforts.

2. Both major parties will look for candidates who are strong on local issues and ties, not just on having lots of funding readily available. In addition to the moneyed Corzine's defeat in NJ, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg nearly lost his reelection bid yesterday, even after spending over $100 million of his own money on the campaign.

It's still possible to buy an office, but it's not cheap, nor is it guaranteed.

3. The internal conflict within the national GOP will grow; the battle for the AZGOP is long over, with the wingnuts gaining victory over a decade ago, but the circular firing squad is just forming up nationally. NY-23 was just the hors d'eouvres. The GOP should be able to gain some Congressional seats next year (that the standard pattern in midterms, with the non-Presidential party gaining), but they are already working to blunt that effect.

Even here in AZ, where the wingers are well-entrenched and should have a well-established cadre of candidates on the bench, they are trotting out self-funded "more conservative than thou" carpetbaggers to challenge Democratic incumbents in CD1 and CD5, and seriously talking up a "conservative" challenge to long-time Republican Senator John McCain. He is borderline unbeatable in a general election, but the likes of JD Hayworth, Chris Simcox, and Russell Pearce consider him to be a "RINO."

Senator Glassman, anyone?

Later...

Short Attention Span Musing - Congressional Edition

...In the "big" news this week, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes announced that she would not run for the Republican nomination in CD1 (PolitickerAZ).

This may actually help not the other Republicans running, but instead it may aid the Democrats' chances of taking Renzi's seat. While Mayes may be too moderate and too conscientious a public servant to suit the power structure of the Arizona Republican Party, it's precisely those qualities that would have made her a formidable candidate in a general election.

As for the other major Rep candidates, Sydney "my soul is owned by the mining industry" Hay (already in the race) and Ken "broomstick" Bennett (rumored to be entering the race)?? Not so much.

Follow the links - each one has major weaknesses as a candidate, weaknesses that the eventual Democratic nominee will be certain to bring to the attention of CD1's voters.


...Over in CD5, while the Republican challengers to Harry Mitchell were making nice with each other, in an "aww shucks, isn't that cute" sort of way (and taking shots at Democrats in general and Mitchell in particular) on Monday, Mitchell was sponsoring a 21st century version of the GI Bill (H.R. 5740).

No AZ Republicans in Congress signed on as cosponsors of the bill to support post-9/11 veterans.
No Republican challenger in CD5 has issued a statement that they support H.R. 5740 either, and a quick perusal of their campaign websites finds far more support for the war in Iraq than for the servicemen and women fighting and dying in the war.


...In CD3, Republican John Shadegg had a mixed week -

First, he found out that the U.S. Chamber of Congress loves him (no word though on what Paradise Valley thinks of him or if he understands that PV is part of his district, and the US CofC isn't) and he loved them right back - attacking Congressional Democrats for delaying a vote on the Colombia Free Trade deal.

Later in the week, however, his constituents found out that alleged "taxpayer watchdog" Shadegg (as well as CD6's Jeff Flake) has no problem with taking international trips at taxpayer expense.

Then there was the whole "Shadegg was recorded by the FBI on a Renzi wiretap" news, too. :)

Oh, and challenger Bob Lord raised more than $220K during the first quarter and has more than $630K on hand.

All in all, *not* a good week for Congressman Shadegg.


...Of course, while Shadegg's week fell into the "not good" category, the week of Tim Bee, Republican challenger to Gabrielle Giffords in CD8 had an "absolutely lousy" week.

Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion broke the story of a taxpayer-funded campaign...errr...'thank-you' ad for Bee. In his update on the original post, Tedski found that the source of the funding for the TV spot was a bunch of school districts and that the ad aired not in his legislative district, but in CD8. Hmmm...

Now that the DCCC has filed a complaint over the spot, Bee may learn the hard way that he's trying to step up to the big leagues.

Part of that lesson will be understanding that the FEC is going to hammer him for stuff that AZ's Secretary of State Jan Brewer would turn a blind eye to (at least for fellow Republicans, anyway.)


Later!

Quarterly FEC reports - updated

Updated on 10/16 with every incumbent now reporting; many of those who are just 'exploring' haven't filed yet. Many of those, because of the timing of their organization, won't *have* to report until after the first of the year.


Key: Candidate name, affiliation ( * signifies incumbents) - total contributions, PAC and other committee $, individual contributions, cash on hand

CD1

Rick Renzi, Republican* - $1,200; $1,000; $200; $2,085.59
Note: Renzi still owes over $100K in legal fees from earlier in the year.

Ann Kirkpatrick, Democrat - $217,050.00; $1,000; $216,050.00; $173,227.81

Sydney Hay, Republican - $57,933.81; $0; $57,933.81; $106,267.60
Note: $50,000 of Ms. Hay's fundraising came in the form of a loan to the campaign by the candidate.

Howard Shanker, Democrat - $18,160.24; $0; $18,160.24; $9,367.88
Note: $2,586.34 of his total came from the candidate and the campaign owes $9,300 on a credit card.

Ellen Simon, Democrat - $1,550.00; $0; $1,550.00; $4.41
Note: All $1,550 of Ms. Simon's funds came from the candidate herself.

CD1 note: To borrow a phrase from the film "Bull Durham" - Ms. Kirkpatrick has "announced [her] presence with authority." Her strong quarter sends a loud message both to potential Democratic primary opponents and potential Republican opposition in the general. Her candidacy is for real, and anyone thinking of jumping into the race (either side of the aisle) better be prepared for the long haul.


CD2

Trent Franks, Republican* - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87

John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87

CD3

Bob Lord, Democrat - $142,133.52; $5,000.00; $137,133.52; $332,189.52

John Shadegg, Republican* - $192,653.00; $36,400.00; $156,253.00; $450,930.26

Annie Loyd, Independent - $12,139.24; 0; $12,139.24; $5,001.16

Bob Stump, Republican - $0; $0; $0; $13,484.68

CD3 notes: You know that Independent Loyd has an uphill fight when the numbers show that her active campaign has less cash on hand than the inactive (for many years) campaign of Republican Stump. Also, the Lord campaign seems to have legs; while the incumbent Shadegg has outraised him and leads in COH, the differences are fairly insignificant, especially when the majority of the fundraising difference is rooted in Shadegg's advantage in PAC money.

This one is going to be a real race and one to keep an eye on.

Note on the note - Mr. Lord will be speaking at the next meeting of the Arizona chapter of the National Jewish Democratic on next Thursday. More on that in my "events calendar" post later this week.

CD4

Ed Pastor, Democrat* - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71

CD5

Harry Mitchell, Democrat* - $354,638.52; $140,470.52; $214,168.00

Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25

JD Hayworth, Republican - $0; $0; $0, $20,279.70

Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0

CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.

CD6

Jeff Flake, Republican - $225,765.78; $22,500.00; $203,265.78; $749,738.38

CD7

Raul Grijalva, Democrat* - $63,122.02; $0; $63,122.02; $94,425.00

CD8

Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80

Tim Bee, Republican - $134,620.00; $0; $134,620.00; $119,316.25

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat* - $257,800.05; $96,548.41; $161,251.64; $1,126,838.82
Note: Giffords' info has been corrected by an update; a previous "October" report that was filed in September is NOT the October quarterly report. Oops - I should've caught that in my original post. :(

CD8 note: With a cash on hand total that is slightly more than 10% of Gabrielle Giffords', the fundraising effort of sitting State Senate President Bee can only be termed as "disappointing" for the Republicans.

Of course, I'm a Democrat. :)))))


Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.

The FEC numbers count more. :))

A Sonoran Alliance post on the significance of the numbers in CD5 and CD8 here.

A Sustainablity, Equity, Development post on CD8 is here.

Later!

Quarterly FEC filings are rolling in...

from the various Congressional campaigns. The list isn't complete (the due date is the 15th) but here's a partial summary of reports from active committees (not necessarily active candidates) -

Key: Candidate name, affiliation - total contributions, PAC $, individual contributions, cash on hand

CD1

CD2

Trent Franks, Republican - $49563.00, $23,500, $26,063.00, $72,153.87
John Thrasher, Democrat - $2,218.51; $0; $2,215.00; $3,619.87

CD3

Annie Loyd, Independent - $12139.24; 0; $12139.24; $5001.16

CD4

Ed Pastor, Democrat - $53,935.94; $39,190.94; $14,745.00; $1,229,812.71


CD5

Laura Knaperek, Republican - $30,700.00; $0; $30,700.00; $28,846.25
Larry King, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $0

CD5 Note: Laura Knaperek's max contributors ($4600) include Ken Kendrick, owner of the Diamondbacks, and Randy Kendrick, lawyer. Other contributors include Nathan Sproul (Arizona's version of Karl Rove) and his wife Tiffani, who gave $2300 each.

CD6

CD7

CD8

Eva Bacal, Democrat - $0; $0; $0; $2,957.80

Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat - $663,297.91; $228,891.49; $434,406.42; $407,041.71

Yet another note: Some other blogs have reported numbers for other candidates (Sonoran Alliance post on the Ogsbury campaign in CD5 here) but until the FEC posts them, I won't list them. I'm not saying that SA has it wrong (their source is an email from the campaign, which is good enough for me) but I want to be consistent. The numbers that candidates tout to their supporters can be different than the ones they report to the FEC.

The FEC numbers count more. :))

Yes, it's a little early for this post, but I work weekends and won't have the time to do a more complete post until early next week.

Comings and goings....

Wednesday was a day of transition for many Republicans...

...Former Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn of Washington passed away at her home in Virginia.

...Ohio Congressman Paul Gillmor was found dead in his D.C. apartment, apparently from natural causes.

My deepest condolences to the friends and families of both.

...Two aides to Abramhoff-associated Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA) moved from 'staffer' status to 'witness' status as they testified before a grand jury investigating their boss.

From AP via SeattlePI.com -

WASHINGTON -- Rep. John Doolittle's scheduler and deputy chief of staff appeared Wednesday before a federal grand jury investigating the California Republican's ties to jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff, Doolittle's spokesman said.

The scheduler, Alisha Perkins, and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Blankenburg were among three Doolittle aides subpoenaed in recent days. Chief of Staff Ron Rogers is scheduled to testify Friday before the grand jury at the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

...TV actor and former Senator Fred Thompson officially announced his candidacy for the 2008 Republican nomination for President.

...In Arizona, Ken Bennett, former president of the state senate, announced that he is *not* running for the CD1 Congressional seat, but he did leave open the possibility of seeking the Governor's office in 2010.

Tedski at R-Cubed has an interesting take on the effect of his son's legal troubles on a potential Bennett candidacy, and I have to agree with his point - the troubles themselves ("hazing" 18 kids with a broom handle) would have less of an impact on a candidacy than the suspicions that the elder Bennett's political prominence had something to do with the lenient sentence his son received (30 days).

Those suspicions will still be around in 2010.

...Also in Arizona, State Rep. Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance) has formed an exploratory committee for a potential primary challenge against super conservative Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ6).

Republican blog Espresso Pundit's take on the possible race is here.

...It was also a day of transition for a Democrat - Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota made his welcome return to the Senate after his long recovery from a brain hemorrhage.

AP coverage here.

Later!

500th post - Short Attention Span Musing

I had planned to do a significant post in commemoration of my 500th post here, full of wry observations and profound witticisms.

However, it's been a long week, so a normal post will have to do. :))


...Now that Rick Renzi has made his departure official, the race for the Republican nomination can officially start.

Sydney Hay, president of the Arizona Mining Association, threw her hat in the ring this week.

According to her AZGOP press release, she will be campaigning on a platform of lower taxes, privatized education and other public services, Republican ethics, and, of course, 'change.'

I have a suggestion for a campaign plank - "CD1 needs a representative who isn't a wholly-owned subsidiary of an out-of-state corporation! In-state corporations need sweetheart no-bid contracts too!"

Among the recipients of her personal campaign contributions, according to the FEC - Sen. Lindsay Graham, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Jeff Flake, and herself (she ran in CD1 in 2002.)

...In a development that only reinforced the point made in the first Random Musings post - perhaps the ethnicity of the targeted groups has changed, as well as general language usage, but otherwise, nothing substantial has changed regarding anti-immigrant fervor in the United States.

In Texas, a native-born citizen of Hispanic ancestry was arrested, jailed, and nearly deported because she has the same name as someone who has been deported in the past.

From the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram -

Texan is jailed as illegal immigrant

A native Texan spent the night in the Arlington Jail, missed her children's first day of school and feared being deported after authorities mistook her for an illegal immigrant.

Alicia Rodriguez, an accountant and mother of three, has the same name and date of birth as a woman deported to Mexico three times.

{snip}

Gilfour said police overlooked fingerprints that would have shown Rodriguez was not the illegal immigrant.

Rodriguez said she does not plan to sue, but apologies do not make up for what she was put through.

"I think it's ridiculous. I think it was obvious that I wasn't an illegal immigrant," she said.

Thanks to jobsanger in Texas for the heads-up on this. He summed it up pretty well in his post when he wrote -

This could have easily been avoided if they had just checked her fingerprints against the known prints of the woman they had her confused with. But they didn't -- they already had their minds made up and didn't want to be confused with facts. After all, she was Hispanic.

...Not that I was ever a fan, but Vince Gill's career fade is painful to watch for anybody who likes any kind of music.

Now he's reduced to doing ads where his backing band is the Fruit of the Loom guys! YouTube video here.

What's next? An off-the-Strip gig in a Vegas dive bar? Hell, working as a judge on a reality show has more dignity than jamming with the Fruit of the Loom guys.

...On the other hand, at least *he's* the one destroying his own legacy; Elvis Presley is probably auditioning for the next "Night of the Living Dead" remake, just for the chance to get his hands on whoever from his estate licensed "Viva Las Vegas" to the makers of Viagra.

The spot, with a bunch of guys in an old barn (or something similar) singing "Viva Viagra" is possibly the creepiest use of a catchy tune. Ever.

That's not the worst of it, either - I can't think about the lyrics to Viva Las Vegas without changing "Las Vegas" to "Viagra."

That may make some marketing exec jump for joy, but the song is just ruined.

YouTube video of the spot here.

...While the story of Sen. Larry Craig's (R-ID) attempt to pick up an undercover police officer in a public restroom is tabloid tawdry, and watching the strident gay-basher try to spin his hypocrisy is seriously entertaining (in a 'watching an impending train wreck' sort of way), the real fun has been watching the Republicans turn on one of their own.

However, does anybody think that if he was caught with trying to pick up a woman, that this story would have lasted more than 5 minutes in the media, or generated more than a wink and a nudge from his Republican colleagues?

Anybody?

One bright spot in all this? Soon-to-be-ex-Senator Craig's press conference to deny that he is gay (YouTube video here) has totally trounced the infamous meltdown by Miss Teen USA-South Carolina as the "worst recorded public appearance of the week." (YouTube vid of that here.)

...And in the "I suppose I should be flattered at the attention" Department -

Somebody at the ultra-conservative Goldwater Institute spent two hours at this blog on Friday.

Host Name mx.goldwaterinstitute.org
IP Address 68.110.172.111 [Label IP Address]
Country United States
Region Arizona
City Phoenix
ISP Cox Communications
Returning Visits 0
Visit Length 2 hours 8 mins 48 secs

There's no guarantee that whoever it was spent two entire hours reading this blog, but the visit was definitely more than a drive-by.

...It's time for me to burn my "Yankees Suck" t-shirt.

I wore it at the beginning of a 5 game series between the Sox and Yanks in NYC last August, and the Red Sox were swept.

Then I wore it at the beginning of this week's three game set, also in NYC. The Sox were swept again.

IT'S THE SHIRT'S FAULT!! IT MUST MAKE THE ULTIMATE SACRIFICE!!

:))

...Time for bed...later!

Oops, and it's my oops this time...

but I'm not the only one who made the same oops.

A couple of weeks ago, I (and a few other AZ bloggers) did a post about the Congressional quarterly fundraising reports filed with the FEC.

One of the things that we all concluded, based on the reports that we examined, was that while Rick Renzi, the ethically-challenged Republican in CD1 was down to approximately $20,000 cash on hand and wasn't fundraising, he was still way ahead of any Democratic challengers.

Turns out that was an error.

While most of us just use the "View / Download Electronic Filings: " link to find AZ candidates' financial reports, not all of them are actually listed there.

Today, I went through the "View Images of All Financial Reports: " link, and actually found some reports that weren't covered in the earlier post. And they still aren't available at the other link.

From CD1, as of June 30th -

Howard Shanker, Democrat - $47,251 raised, $26141.04 on hand. (PDF)

Mary Kim Titla, Democrat - $4,606.01 raised, $2,575 on hand. (PDF)

Allen Affeldt, Democrat - Terminated committee

Nothing else that I could find in this district, here in CD5, or in CD8, though I easily could have missed some since users can only search by name, not district or even state. I know that Ann Kirkpatrick has announced in CD1, but there's nothing on the FEC's website as yet.

It's still early, and we should expect many more names from both parties to float out of CD1, as well as seeing Republican names mentioned in CD5 and CD8.

Later!