R LD27 Senate primary debate

On 6/22, the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission (AZCCEC) held a "debate" between the two Republican candidates for the R nomination for the State Senate seat in LD27, incumbent Kevin Payne and his challenger, Anthony Kern.

All of AZCCEC's debates are here.

From the website of the AZSOS -

Quotes were used around "debate" because Payne declined to participate and turned it into a Q and A session with Kern.

With either outcome, the R nominee will be a lousy human being.

Payne is already known for his dismissive demeanor toward his Democratic colleagues, often not even acknowledging their existence when encountering one.

Kern can best be described as "fact-dismissive."

At the 40:14 mark of the video, Kern claimed the accused killer of Charlie Kirk, Tyler Robinson, was a trans Democrat.

At the 41:02 mark of the video, moderator/interviewer T.J. L'Heureux of the Arizona Agenda advised him that wasn't so.

Kern shrugged off reality.

Earlier, he also called Robinson "deranged."  He may be that, I'm not a psychiatrist or psychologist who is qualified to make such a diagnosis.  Kern may want to think twice about categorizing anyone, though.

From AZMirror, written by Jerod Macdonald-Evoy, dated 5/5/2021 -

Where was Anthony Kern on Jan. 6?

Newly reviewed footage by Arizona Mirror raises new questions about former Republican lawmaker Anthony Kern’s activities around the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 as the lawmaker continues to participate in a recount of Maricopa County’s ballots from the 2020 general election. 

Kern has continually insisted that he did not breach the Capitol and no footage or other evidence suggested otherwise. Photos show Kern on the front steps. 

However, footage reviewed by the Mirror shows that Kern was present at other parts of the Capitol breached by protesters. 

Kern, who was an election denier in 2021, doubles down on that today - 

At the 17:40 mark, Kern stated "...What we saw in 2020 was absolutely ridiculous...I still believe that election was absolutely stolen and I will never sway from that because there's enough out there so we do need to get our election and President Trump..."

He never bothered to provide any evidence.

At 18:08, he stated "Elections have been stolen for the past 40 years."

Ummmm about that...

From Ballotpedia -

It's been over 34 years since Democrats controlled the State Senate and over 60 years since the Ds controlled the State House (control of the Senate was split in 2001/2002).

Should someone bother to inform Kern that if "elections have been stolen", it hasn't been by Ds?

Or will he just shrug that off, too?

While this isn't my district and none of these folks will be on my ballot, in an interesting way, watching this did help me with my choice in the CD1 Democratic primary.

Early on, at the 9:29 mark, Kern was asked if there was a Democratic member of the legislature he could/had worked with.

He named one, and that person is one of the candidates running in the CD1 Democratic primary.

If Kern likes a person, I won't vote for that person.

 

R Governor primary debate

The Committee to Re-elect Katie Hobbs met on Wednesday, 6/17.  They tried to be clever about though and called it a debate between the Republican candidates for governor.

Seriously, the Citizens Clean Elections Commission sponsored the debate; all of their debates can be found here.

Other observers termed the debate "tame."

Note: I won't use too many quotes in this; most of the things I found most objectionable were typical R talking points/social positions.  Though there will be exceptions to the "no quotes" things, but only one candidate, Scott Neely, embraced his inner wingnut - he started discoursing on robots taking over the economy.

First up: a pic of the person they all wish to depose as Governor of Arizona, Katie Hobbs:

The candidates in the R primary, from the Arizona Secretary of State -

One thing was clear: they're all Republicans, and agree on a few things -

All want to lower taxes and regulations facing businesses.

All despise any programs that benefit average Arizonans but want to expand welfare for the wealthy in the form of school vouchers/ESAs.

All blame Joe Biden for most of the bad things facing AZ, including inflation (Cheeto was mentioned by name just a couple of times, and then only in laudatory terms - it was as if they knew he'd be a heavy weight around the neck on the nominee in the general election, but in the primary, they're seeking the votes of folks who worship him)

Water in  AZ:: There's no water shortage here, just a perception problem.  Otherwise, everything's fine.

[edit on 6/20 to add]

They're all campaigning on a MAGA platform, where MAGA means "Make Arizona Great Again".

[/end edit]

Candidates Ken Miceli and Scott Neely were unabashed about wanting to be governor to enhance their businesses.

Miceli mumbled a lot and gave off a "just happy to be here" vibe.  My guess is that he'll be fortunate to exceed 1% of the primary vote.

Neely was better and more experienced (he ran for governor in 2022).  He received less than 26K votes in 2022; he may surpass that total in 2026 but will still garner fewer than 50K votes.

Current member of Congress David Schweikert likes to use numbers and figures to justify the same old R talking points, but in a "if you can't dazzle 'em with footwork, baffle 'em with bullshit" way.

At the 16:21 mark of the video, he stated, to rationalize his support of new housing projects, "If an acre of homes, particularly if it's an acre of homes that goes that goes into where agriculture was, you actually end up with excess water supply."

My guess is that he'll come in 2nd in the primary; he may actually be running for the Lieutenant Governor spot on the ticket.

That leaves current member of Congress Andy Biggs.

I believe that he's going to win this particular primary, and it's evident that he does, too.

He tried to present himself as a reasonable person with a history of "working across the aisle."

Of course, being Biggs, it should come as no surprise that a couple of the examples that he cited may qualify as "own goals."

One example he cited was his work with former Senator and Representative Kyrsten Sinema.

Problem: she so despised Democrats (and, to be fair, many Democrats despised her in turn) that she changed her voting registration to nonaffiliated.  Last seen: lobbying (unsuccessfully, as it turned out) for a data center.

Another example he cited was working with the late Senator John McCain.

Problem: while he was a decent human being, he was not a Democrat.

The fact that Biggs thinks of working with a decent human being as "working across the aisle" says much about his personal character.

Republican voters shouldn't be worried though - he is still pandering to them.

At approximately 27:55 of the video, he proposed ending AZ's income tax and paying for it by going after fraud in Medicaid, Indian Health Services, and the Medicaid expansion program and selling off other assets like state trust lands.

He, like the others, glossed over fraud in the ESA program.

At 42:28, he observed "the reason you're hearing about it is that they're catching people that fraudulently use ESAs.

There's also tremendous fraud in {garbled} traditional system that we have to come in and find out and get that and stop that."

Evidently, providing facts is so not necessary in R primaries; only assertions are needed.

The next debates I'll watch are the CD1 debates - I'll watch the Democratic debate because I really don't know who I'm going to vote for, and I'll watch the R debate because I expect it to be entertaining.

LD3 State Senate Republican primary debate: eye opening, to say the least

On May 14, the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission held a debate for the Republican candidates in LD3.

This post will focus only on the candidates for State Senate there.  However, I recommend watching the entire thing, especially if you live in the district (I don't).  If you don't, I further recommend that anyone living in another district watch the debates for your district, regardless of you partisan affiliation (or non-affiliation).  Some of these people will end up on your ballot.

This "debate" was moderated by Hank Stephenson of the Arizona Agenda.  "Debate" is in quotes because it was done remotely - all three folks (the two candidates and one moderator) were in different places.  Stephenson did a fine job.

No prediction on the outcome of the primary will be forthcoming - I usually apply filters to R races that I apply to D races, and that's the wrong thing to do.

Also, no comments on the staging (the incumbent made sure to wear the Arizona-shaped pin given to legislators to ID them at the Capitol while the challenger was in a room filled with books - pics later).

The incumbent is John Kavanagh while the challenger in Robert Wallace.

While I don't live in the district or am a Republican (shocking, I know 🤯 ), I watched this because I expected there to be some real nuggets here.  I was right.

The debate was recorded and is available on YouTube.  When a time is given, that's based on the video record.

Wallace is challenging Kavanagh, one of the most conservative members of the legislature, from the right.

He's a 9-11 truther.  'Nuff said.

Kavanagh is NOT the lousiest human being in the lege, though, with a membership like that, that's like saying that a burst appendix is better than cancer.  

That may be true, but both are still bad.

First off, Kavanagh heartily believes that he's not there to represent the people of his district.  When he takes a position on an issue that differs from that of the majority, they're just uninformed.

52.35

"First of all, I'm not sure if anybody could ever know how a majority of the voters feel about any issue, there's not really polling like that."

53.04

"Now, there may be some situations where a majority might disagree with my position but sometimes that's because the voters don't have all the facts. Sometimes that's because the news coverage was wrong or slanted or or biased or or incomplete."

He also believes that democratically-elected municipal councils aren't allowed to work to protect the residents of their municipalities from the federal government.

56.25

"The city council has no authority to stop [an ICE] detention facility from occurring.  The federal government is not beholden to local zoning ordinances."

He may want to be careful about that last - if a Democratic administration is elected in 2028 an decides to put a toxic waste dump in his back yard, he may not be able to stop it.

Though he might like it - toxic waste dumps and ICE have one thing in common.

They poison everything around them.

He's also one the legislators who believe that funding for public education should be held hostage for ESAs/school vouchers.

"Open to a clean extension of prop 123, as long as there's no ballot threat to ESAs.. I would be open to that, but only if there was not a threat at the ballot that these groups are doing to ESAs."

"ESAs make education better and greater in Arizona"

1.21.26

"I would consider next year, a straight-up Ducey-style 123 if the initiatives did not go on the ballot that people are proposing to dismantle or weaken ESAs..  If that were to happen, then perhaps the 123 needs to go up with some sort of ESA protections next year."

And the 2020 election?  Wallace thinks it was stolen from Cheeto, and Kavanagh was more circumspect, but...

1.29.10

Stephenson: Do you believe your ballot was accurately and correctly counted in the 2020 election?

1.29.50

"I think there are a tremendous number of irregularities that caused a lot of concern and doubt. As to my ballot, I really have no way of knowing."

1.30.00

Stephenson "Tremendous concern and doubt". Where do you fall on this?  Do you think that the 2020 election was accurately and fairly called for President Joe Biden or do you think that Donald Trump won that one?

"I don't know. I'm not prepared to say that the vote count was accurate but I don't have evidence to prove that it wasn't. But clearly, it was a wake up call for the need for election security.  [Garbled]If not for actual security, to make sure the appearance of impropriety doesn't taint elections, too."

Kavanagh closed by urging people to vote for him.

Don't make Arizona California. I ask that you vote John Kavanagh for State Senate.

Arizona only wishes it was California.

From the Orange County Register, dated May 2nd -

California economy vs. Trump: What GDP tells us

California’s economy, as measured by gross domestic product, did surprisingly well in the first year of the second Trump administration.

My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ tally of business output growth for the states and found that California’s GDP was up 2.4% for 2025.

That was the 11th-best performance among the states and topped the 2% expansion of the national economy.

From the Public Policy Institute of California -

California is an economic powerhouse, nationally and globally.

• In 2025, California’s GDP was $4.3 trillion, comprising 14% of national GDP ($30.7 trillion). Texas and New York are the next-largest state economies at 9% and 8%, respectively.
• California’s economy ranks fourth internationally as of 2024, behind the US, China, and Germany. On a per capita basis, California’s GDP is greater than all of these countries.
• California’s economy grew relatively fast in the second half of the last decade, but it has slowed since (4.1% annually from 2015–2019; 3.0% from 2020–2025). By comparison, Florida (5.4%) and Texas (5.0%) have grown faster than California since 2020.
• Over the past 25 years, California’s economy has grown faster than the nation overall (90% vs. 69%) but not faster than other large states like Texas (130%) or Florida (101%). However, on a per capita basis, California’s economic growth has outpaced all other large states over the long term.

Oh, and the staging -