Showing posts with label Quayle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quayle. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

The 2012 primaries: one major disappointment, a minor one, but otherwise, no real surprises

Tuesday's primaries are over, and the post-game analysis is in full swing.  As I wasn't able to live blog the results last night due to being otherwise occupied (at David Schapira's election night gathering in Tempe.  Hard to type when it is too dark to see the keyboard... :) ).

There were a couple of disappointments, but the only surprises Tuesday were in margins of victory (or loss, depending on your perspective), not in end results.

First, the disappointments -

- The biggest disappointment of the evening was, of course, David Schapira's second place finish, behind Kyrsten Sinema, in the Democratic primary in CD9.  He ran a positive and energetic campaign, earned the respect of many people who had never heard of him before this campaign (and reinforced the respect of the many people who *had* heard of him), and has a bright future despite this one loss, the first in his electoral career.

- A minor disappointment, but not a surprise, was the ability of LD23 R state reps John Kavanagh and Michelle Ugenti to fend off the challenge of Jennifer Petersen, a member of the Scottsdale school district governing board.  Petersen has a reputation as a pragmatic public servant, ergo, she had almost no chance of getting through a Republican primary.  Her north Scottsdale district used to send a highly-respected moderate R to the lege in the person of Carolyn Allen.  Now, the most "moderate" is State Sen. Michelle Reagan, and she has gone hard to the right, probably in preparation for an expected Congressional or statewide run.  The winner of the CD9 race in November, regardless of partisan affiliation, should probably start oppo research on her, at just about the time that the polls close.


Now, the (mostly pleasant) surprises -

- In the LD25 Senate R primary, disgraced former state senator Russell Pearce lost big to Mesa businessman Bob Worsley in his bid to return to the senate.  He has now lost a recall election by double digit percentage points, where he argued that if only Republicans could've voted in it (like, say, as in a primary), he would have won.  Well, he got the primary that he wanted, and...he lost by double digit percentage points.

- The other Pearce, Lester, lost his primary race for the 2nd District seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to businessman Steve Chucri.  It was by an equally resounding margin (double digits, baby!).

- Pearce ally John Fillmore lost his bid for the LD16 state senate R nomination to Pearce foe Rich Crandall.

- In the one victory for the Pearce machine, Sylvia Allen, currently in the state senate, won her primary race for the Republican nomination for the 3rd District seat on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.  She won with 80% of the vote, but her opponent ran as a $500 Exemption candidate, while she had the thousands of dollars that she transferred from the legislative campaign committee.

- In the R primary for US Senate, it wasn't surprising to see Jeff Flake defeat Wil Cardon, nor even to do so soundly.  However, Flake didn't just win soundly - he absolutely thumped Cardon, gaining more than three times as many votes as Cardon. 

Damn!

- In Pinal County, embattled Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu held off multiple challengers for the R nomination, which in itself isn't much of a surprise - he was expected to win a plurality of the votes because the other candidates would split the anti-Babeu vote.  What is surprising is that Babeu got 61% of the vote.  The other three candidates combined didn't equal his total.

- In the LD24 D primaries, Katie Hobbs (Senate) and Lela Alston and Chad Campbell (House) easily turned aside the challenges from Ken Cheuvront (Senate) and his mom Jean and Tom Nerini (House), respectively.  While Hobbs was clearly the better candidate in her race, Cheuvront had money and name recognition on his side, so Hobbs' margin of victory was a bit of a surprise (>20 percentage points).

- In the CD6 R primary, freshman Congressman David Schweikert defeated fellow freshman Ben Quayle.  As a Democrat, I viewed that race much like I viewed the 2000 World Series between the Yankees and the Mets as a Red Sox fan - I hoped both would lose.  It didn't work out that way, but at least one lost. :)

- In the City of Scottsdale's mayoral race, incumbent Jim Lane received the most votes, which was no surprise.  What was surprising was his margin of victory - he gained a majority of votes cast, easily avoiding a November runoff against one of his challengers - businessman/community activist John Washington or businessman Drew Bernhardt.


Democratic primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county)..
Republican primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county).
Other party and non-partisan results from Maricopa County are here.
Results from the AZ Secretary of State are here.

Friday, October 28, 2011

AZ Republicans taking the "3 Bs"* approach to redistricting

* = "Bluster, Bully, and Bullshit"

Arizona's Republicans, led by their officeholders, are crying "foul" over the independent redistricting process.

They've whined about all sorts of alleged misdeeds and wrongdoing on the part of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC), but mostly they're upset over the fact that, unlike the last incarnation of the AIRC, this Commission is actually living up to the "Independent" part of their name.

They started their attacks with "bluster", ranging from busing scads of "grass roots" Republicans to AIRC hearings and meetings all over the state, many of whom read, with voices filled with self-righteous indignation, from a script of fabricated talking points (seriously, many of them walked up to the microphone script in hand and read the same text over and over) to press releases denouncing the AIRC as partisan and not in keeping with the wishes of Arizona's voters.

They then added "bully" to their repertoire, first with threats from people like Arizona Attorney General Tom Horne, a scam artist of long renown, ginning up an "investigation" of the Commission to the current kangaroo court conducted by the members of the Republican majority in the legislature where people like Republican state senator Andy Biggs has bullied and ridiculed members of the public who don't drink the Kool-Aid and follow the script of "independent redistricting really bad, Republican officeholders really good" (check out the video archive here; as of this writing, there are archives of four of the meetings of the Joint Legislative Committee on Redistricting.  Each of them contains many examples of this behavior.  Also, Steve at Arizona Eagletarian has reporting here and here).

Note:  While I was writing this post, word came down that Horne has been disqualified from investigating the AIRC.

Also, Jan Brewer, Arizona's Republican governor is threatening to call a special session of the Arizona Senate in order to remove the commissioners for what she calls "gross misconduct" and I call "living up to the 'Independent' in 'Independent Redistricting Commission'."

As for the "bullshit" part of the "3 Bs", well, that's been an integral part of the game plan all along.

Whether it was the assertion that renowned Constitutional scholar Paul Bender was unqualified to even be nominated to the AIRC and suing to have him removed from the list of nominees, the claims that Colleen Mathis, selected as the independent chair of the Independent Redistricting Commission was actually a Democrat, the assertions that the AIRC has been too secretive in its operations and deliberations crafting the draft maps that have the Republicans so upset, or more, the Rs have been flinging bullshit against the AIRC's wall for months hoping that some of it sticks.

So far, their efforts have only left the Rs with stinky hands, but that hasn't made them less determined to undermine the AIRC and the will of the voters, who created the AIRC specifically to remove elected officials from the redistricting process.

A few facts:

The AIRC has held dozens of public meetings and hearings and accepted *hundreds* of hours of public input on the maps and the factors that should be considered when laying out the new legislative and Congressional districts.

Colleen Mathis *is* an Independent.  The issue of her husband's support for a Democratic candidate in one election ignores the fact that her husband has also supported Republican candidates, attending a Bush inauguration ball with her.

Professor Paul Bender, a true Independent (more liberal than the Rs or Ds) is so qualified that the members of  Commission on Appellate Court Appointments, most of whom are accomplished in their fields, enthusiastically supported his nomination when screening the applicants for the AIRC (except for Doug Cole, Chuck Coughlin's plant on the commission,  Cole was like Mikey of Life Cereal fame - he hates everything...that doesn't result in increased power and profits for him, Coughlin, and their clients at HighGround).

Another thing area that has sparked Republican complaints is that the draft maps have resulted in incumbents such as Congressmen David Schweikert and Ben Quayle facing off in a primary.

What they don't mention in their complaints is that both Schweikert and Quayle have freely chosen to run in a district that they don't live in (Schweikert lives in draft CD4, Quayle in draft CD9, but both would rather run in north Scottsdale, which is in draft CD6).  Something that is allowed under the US Constitution, but it is rather cynical for them to make that choice and then complain about the unfairness of the AIRC.

Note:  The draft CD9 is competitive, leaning slightly R, while both the draft CD4 and draft CD6 are overwhelmingly R.  Draft CD4 has a strong rural component though, and Schweikert is most definitely not an "honorary judge of cow milking contests at 4-H fairs" kind of guy.

As for the whining that the AIRC has sacrificed "communities of interest" to bolster "competitiveness" -

The AIRC's competitiveness analysis of the draft maps are here (legislative) and here (Congressional).

Based on the voter registration numbers, only one of the 30 legislative districts is truly competitive and maybe four others have a realistic chance of breaking that way.  Otherwise, 18 LDs will be solidly R and seven will be solidly D.  Even if all five of the competitive and quasi-competitive districts go Democratic (possible, but not likely), that would result in 18-12 and 36-24 splits (favoring the Rs) in the AZ Senate and House respectively.  Not exactly leading to a positive change in AZ there.

Also based on the registration numbers, the Congressional districts wouldn't be much better.  Two of the nine Congressional districts would be competitive, while four would be solidly R and three would be solidly D (one of the D districts would be poachable by the Rs, but it would be an uphill battle).

Based on the numbers, about the only real "community of interest" whose interests have been sacrificed  is the community called "Arizona", which stands to gain the most from having districts competitive enough to force candidates and officeholders to actually represent their constituents, not just their friends at country club cocktail parties and tea party "Kool-Aid" drinking sessions.

Of course, the draft maps *do*protect the "community of interest" that least needs protection -

Republican officeholders.

And that fact won't change no matter how much they whine about things in an attempt to intimidate the AIRC into making the maps even less competitive than they are already.

The second round of hearings is winding down, but there is still time to add your voice in support of an increased number of truly competitive districts.

The AIRC will travel to places like Yuma, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Marana, Casa Grande and Cottonwood in the next week.  Make plans to be at one or more (if possible) hearings.  If that isn't feasible, the AIRC accepts public input via phone, email, or through their website.

...In a related matter, some pics from the AIRC hearing held in Mesa on Wednesday evening (note - the overall turnout was light, but out of two dozen speakers, only one or two came out against competitive districts):





Commissioner Scott Freeman, the commissioner in attendance Wednesday












Korinne Kubena Belock of Strategic Telemetry giving a overview of the redistricting process













Tempe Democratic activist  Lauren Kuby speaking in support of competitive districts













State Rep. Lynne Pancrazi, advocating for keeping Yuma and La Paz counties together, and out of a Maricopa County-dominated LD













Jay Schlum, mayor of Fountain Hills, testifying in favor of changing the maps to put FH together with other northeast valley communities like Rio Verde.  Other local elected officials there, from places like Queen Creek, Apache Junction, Gilbert, Chandler, and more similarly spoke on behalf of issue relevent to their particular communities.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Ben Quayle wants extra $$$ for talking to the people he works for

Apparently, $174,000 per year, plus benefits and perks, isn't enough to convince Ben Quayle (R-CD3) that he should have to talk his constituents, aka - "his employers."

From Politico, written by Reid Epstein (emphasis mine) -

It will cost $15 to ask Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) a question in person during the August congressional recess.
The House Budget Committee chairman isn’t holding any face-to-face open-to-the-public town hall meetings during the recess, but like several of his colleagues he will speak only for residents willing to open their wallets.

Ryan, who took substantial criticism from his southeast Wisconsin constituents in April after he introduced the Republicans’ budget proposal, isn’t the only member of congress whose August recess town hall-style meetings are strictly pay-per-view.

Rep. Ben Quayle (R-Ariz.) is scheduled to appear Aug. 23 at a luncheon gathering of the Arizona Republican Lawyers Association. For $35, attendees can question Quayle and enjoy a catered lunch at the Phoenix office of the Snell & Wilmer law firm.
Like his colleague "Foreclosure Dave" Schweikert (R-CD5), Quayle is mimizing contact with the people of his districts, but at least Schweikert was smart enough to schedule his "pay to play" events out of state (CA) or in October, perhaps giving people time to forget how Quayle, Schweikert, and the rest of the Rs are *deep* in the pockets of Big Business.

Of course, perhaps the fact that Schweikert's October event is having breakfast with the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the US Chamber of Commerce won't exactly help to dispel the idea that he and his associates don't hold the interests of their constituents in high regard.


One final observation:  Most people who work for a living have people who they answer to, whether those people are called customers or employers or whatever. 

I wonder what would happen to Quayle et. al. if they took their open contempt for the people who pay their salaries to private sector jobs? 

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Update: Campaign Committees

There have been a few developments on the 2012 campaign committee front since the last update.


...In the race for US Senate, Don Bivens, attorney and former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, has formed a committee.  According to Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's The Fix, the committee is an exploratory one, and Bivens has said that he will make a final decision on running around Labor Day.

...In legislative developments -

- Former state legislator David Bradley has formed an exploratory committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD28 state senate.

- Martin Quezada has formed an exploratory committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD13 state representative.

- Lorenzo Sierra Jr. has formed an exploratory committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD13 state representative.

- Michael Snitz has formed a committee for a run for the Democratic nomination for LD14 state representative.

Note:  all of the districts listed will change once the Independent Redistricting Commission puts together the new maps.

Active Congressional committee fundraising totals (April thru June) (incumbents italicized):

Raul Grijalva (D) - $88233 raised, $70724 on hand
Chuck Gray (R) - $3359 raised, $16443 on hand
Trent Franks (R) - $59507 raised, $41068 on hand, $372477 in debt
David Schweikert (R) - $2230 raised, $17881 on hand, $501800 in debt
David Schweikert (R) (2nd committee) - $250777 raised, $336262 on hand
Gabrielle Giffords (D) - $281177 raised, $787949 on hand
Travis Grantham (R) - $13300 raised, $13240 on hand
Kirk Adams (R) - $230525 raised, $209225 on hand
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) - $221289 raised, $215723 on hand
Paul Gosar (R) - $166544 raised, $138392 on hand
Ed Pastor (D) - $93158 raised, $1391488 on hand
Ben Quayle (R) - $282964 raised, $370277 on hand, $7487 in debt
Matt Salmon (R) - $162289 raised, $155744 on hand, $16889 in debt
Gabriela Saucedo Mercer (R) - $22397 raised, $21351 on hand, $485 in debt
Wenona Benally Baldenegro (D) - $8446 raised, $4603 on hand

Note: because incumbent US Representative Jeff Flake is now running for US Senate, his fundraising reports are not available online.

Note2: All numbers rounded to the nearest dollar.

Note3: I didn't list the district of the Congressional committees because those are going to change in a few months.

Observation:  Aren't the Republicans the ones who campaign on their opposition to debt?  Just sayin'...

- No changes in municipal campaign committees in Tempe and Scottsdale, though that should change soon - sources report that there is a poll in the field regarding the Tempe mayor's race. Some say it's a push poll, others say it's legit. I'm not a Tempe resident, so I didn't get the calls and cannot evaluate it directly.

Later...

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Ben Quayle fails geography

Ya know, you'd think that when his father opened up his rolodex of names of competent political campaign staffers to help his son buy his way into Congress, he'd have given his son a name (or two or three) of a competent office staffer, too.

However, based on today's news, you'd think wrong.

From the Arizona Guardian (story is behind subscription paywall, so the link is to the general site):
Congressman Ben Quayle's always been accused of being a carpetbagger of sorts but the GA's thinking this is getting a bit out of hand. It seems Congress' most famous son of an ex-vice president doesn’t even know where he serves these days. It appears that Quayle thinks he works for the good people of Illinois' sixth congressional district and actually wants to nominate the kids there to one if the country's military academies. That's right, according to Quayle's congressional website he says, "I may nominate applicants who are legally domiciled within the boundaries of the sixth District of Illinois."




















Well, there's a silver lining in all this for Quayle - right now, his nicknames tend to be potato-based ("li'l spud", "potatoe chip", etc.) but those are based on something his father did, not that he did himself (hmmmm...sounds a LOT like his political career... :) ).

With this, perhaps for the first time in his life, he's earned something completely on his own.

Hereafter (or at least until his next embarrassing screwup) let Ben Quayle be known to all as

Rep. Ben Quayle (R-copy and paste).