Thursday, January 31, 2008

FEC reports are in

Edit to update: Turns out that Bob Lord's (D-CD3) financial report is up; I just missed it. I've updated the appropriate section of the post. Thanks to Drew for the comment...

End edit.

It's that time again - time for a quick summary of fundraising results for the various Congressional campaigns in AZ.


Key - Total raised, $ from individual donors, $ from PACs and committees, Cash on hand, and (where applicable) debts or loans.

I'll comment between CDs.

CD1

Kirkpatrick (D) $186108.71, 166108.71, 24000, 292867.66, 20000 loan

Renzi (R) $0, 0, 0, 1786.60, 456058.23 debt

Hay (R) $41822.32, 23935.92, 17886.40, 155727.77, 20000 loan

Shanker (D) $17517.18, 17517.18, 0, 4069.89

No info as yet from Mary Kim Titla (D) or a Democratic candidate that I've never heard of but who has filed organization paperwork, Jeffrey Brown. He's serious enough to have a real, though under construction, website, so I'll mention him here.

It's early still, but pending the still only rumored entries of other Republicans into the contest, right now the race is shaping up to be between industry lobbyist Hay for the Rs and DCCC-annointed Kirkpatrick for the Ds. Their early money and organizations will be tough to beat.


CD2

Franks (R) $72691, 42191, 30500, 86274.1

Thrasher (D) $8543, 8543, 0, 10693.56

Nothing too surprising here; while Franks is beatable, Thrasher needs support to do it. Surf to his website to volunteer or contribute.


CD3

Shadegg (R) $494544.92, 362794.92, 131750, 863636.22

Loyd (I) $14226.55, 0, 14226.55. 8884.33

Lord (D) $211071.23, 187821.23, 18250.00, 503182.54

Something tells me that Shadegg didn't raise half-a-million dollars in what is traditionally the slowest fundraising quarter of the year in response to Annie Loyd's $14K. While Shadegg has, and is expected to maintain, a fundraising advantage (incumbents usually do), he's in the race of his political life. Perhaps his efforts on behalf of John McCain's presidential campaign have an ulterior motive - he realizes that he benefits with McCain at the top of the ballot in November. McCain's presence, while it may not help Rep candidates nationwide, should fuel increased Rep voter turnout here in AZ.

Shadegg should keep something in mind as the campaign unfolds - by sacrificing his constituents and constituent services to campaign for McCain, he could cost himself more votes than he gains with McCain at the top of the ballot.


CD4

Pastor (D) $80125.63, 38120, 42005.63. 1222975.39

$1.2 million CoH and no opponent (as yet, anyway)? Pastor should expect lots of pressure to help out other Democratic candidates this summer.


CD5

Hayworth (R) $-2200, 0, 0, 15310.3

Mitchell (D) $210680, 137255, 71800, 868883.55

Ogsbury (R) $34880, 33380, 1500, 349191.47

Schweikert (R) $505,993, 246393.51, 9600, 412030.69, 250000 loan

Hatch-Miller (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.

Anderson (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.

Knaperek (R) $19948.54, 19948.54, 0, 27356.99

Even without the quarter million dollar loan, Schweikert is the one to beat (money-wise, anyway) in the Rep primary here, though Knaperek and Anderson are veteran campaigners and will know how to use their more limited funds to good effect.

Note: Telecom/cable industry lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith has said that she will make her run/don't run decision sometime after Super Tuesday. As of tonight, no paperwork for her, organizational or financial reporting, has been posted by the FEC.


CD6

Flake $305414.48, 258613.52, 46800.96, 999110.50

Richard Grayson is running a (self-admittedly) quixotic challenge to Flake, but that million dollars CoH of Flake's isn't aimed at him, it was aimed straight as erstwhile primary challenger Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance).

Pearce has recently set his sights somewhat lower - convincing LD18 State Senator Karen Johnson (R-UFO) to step aside and not run for reelection.

Pearce will face Democrat Judah Nativio for the seat.


CD7

Grijalva (D) $40475, 7975, 32500, 99351.11

The Reps are sure to run someone against Congressman Grijalva (they always do), but unless I miss my guess, Grijalva's organization will expend more effort on rounding up votes for presidential candidate Barack Obama than they'll have to expend on rounding up votes for Raul.


CD8

Bee (R) $151074.24, 141324.24, 9750, 161246.04

Giffords (D) $272253.88, 161209.45, 111044.43, 1317357.30

Unless Tim Bee can pull of a miracle dealing with the state's budget deficit, he may come to regret not resigning his seat in the Arizona State Senate. Giffords has an almost 9-to-1 CoH advantage, and Bee is stuck in Phoenix most of the week.

If he leaves the Senate now, he'll get roundly criticized for abandoning his constituents (something that a candidate for another office doesn't want to deal with); if he doesn't leave, his campaign can't get up to full speed until June or July, by which time, Giffords could have a 20:1 money advantage.

PolitickerAZ has a report on the numbers as well, and they have most of the duelling press releases that accompany the releases of fundraising numbers on the main site.

Later!

1 comment:

Drew said...

Bob Lord raised over $211,000 in Q4, over $612,000 for 2007, and ended the year with over $503,000 cash on hand.

This was 50% stronger than Q3 and Bob Lord's strongest quarter yet.

It was also stronger than all but 3 of Congressman Shadegg's quarters, ever.

We are extremely excited by the momentum we are bringing forward into 2008.

Bob's report is online here:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00432591/320639/

Best,

Drew
Bob Lord for Congress
Campaign Manager