Quarterly FEC Reports Are Pouring In...

They're not all into the FEC yet, so I'll update over the next few days.

The quarterly numbers so far -

CD1 (open seat)

Shanker (D) (challenger) - Total raised $33,688.73; $31,354.75 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $34,320.21 cash on hand. Note: Shanker's committee has $9,367.88 in outstanding debt (credit card statement).

Hay (R) (challenger) - Total raised $98,618.19; $88,118.19 from individuals; $10,500.00 from PACs; $222,334.01 cash on hand. Note: Hay's committee has $70K in outstanding debt (loans by the candidate).

Kirkpatrick (D) (challenger) - Total raised $257,400.17; $194,650.17 from individuals; $62,250.00 from PACs; $465,464.68 cash on hand. Note: Kirkpatrick's committee has $20K in outstanding debt (loan).

Riley (D) (challenger) - Total raised $15,825.00; $15,825.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $216,165.31 cash on hand. Note: Riley's committee has $205K in outstanding debt (candidate loan). Note2: According to PolitickerAZ, Riley has dropped out of the race.

Titla (D) (challenger) - Total raised $39,114.05; $39,114.05 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $48,321.07 cash on hand.

Korn (R) (challenger) - Total raised $14,567.00; $12,266.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $10,494.16 cash on hand. Note: Korn's committee has $3,185.36 in outstanding debt (candidate loan and credit card).

Renzi (R) (outgoing incumbent) - $0 raised; $3966.46 cash on hand; $456,073.37 in outstanding debt (legal fees, candidate loans).

CD1 note: According to Tedski at Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion, rumored Republican candidate Ken Bennett has chosen (again!) to pass on the CD1 race.


CD2

Franks (R) (incumbent) - $88,386.00 total raised; $53,261.00 from individuals; $35,625.00 from PACs; 129,774.83 cash on hand. Note: Franks' committee owes $304,100 in outstanding debt (candidate loan).

Thrasher (D) (challenger) - Total raised $3,023.50; $3,023.50 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $12,512.49 cash on hand.


CD3

Lord (D) (challenger) - Total raised $220,166.47; $163,116.47 from individuals; $51,550.00 from PACs; $632,485.41 cash on hand.

Shadegg (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $150,716.41; $163,516.41 from individuals; $47,000.00 from PACs; $937,672.59 cash on hand. Note: The reason that the total raised is less than the combined totals of individual and PAC contributions is that Shadegg's committee refunded nearly $60K in contributions.

Annie Loyd (I) (challenger) - Quarterly report not posted yet.

Shadegg's flirtation with retirement may have cost him some contributions - Shadegg outraised the incumbent, even when ignoring the refunds (which included a refund of $10K in illegal contributions from his own PAC.)

From a Lord press release -

“We could not have come this far or raised this much without the support of the over 1,000 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who have contributed to my campaign,” Lord said. “I’d like to thank everyone for their continued support. We will change Washington – together.”

CD4

Pastor (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $260,827.71; $164,020.98 from individuals; $96,306.73 from PACs; $1,266,599.90 cash on hand.


CD5

Mitchell (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $321,160.18; $209,028.59 from individuals; $112,110.00 from PACs; $1,121,680.84 cash on hand.

Schweikert (R) (challenger) - Total raised $175,210.23; $171,941.95 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $514,092.21 cash on hand. Note: Schweikert's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).

Ogsbury (R) (challenger) - Total raised 40,421.17; $37,921.17 from individuals; $2,500.00 from PACs; $353,094.41 cash on hand. Note: Ogsbury's committee has $250K in outstanding debt (candidate loan).

Hatch-Miller (R) (committee terminated) - Owes $17K; cash on hand $245.20.

Knaperek (R) (challenger) - $49,618.00 total raised; $49,518.00 from individuals; $100 from PACs; $44,471.84 cash on hand.

Anderson (R) (challenger) - $55,115.00 total raised; $55,115.00 from individuals; $0 from PACs; $69,985.52 cash on hand.

CD5 Notes: Susan Bitter Smith (R) is still 'exploring', but given the facts that the signature deadline is fast approaching (early June) and that her name is dirt with many of Scottsdale's grassroots Republicans (see: Hanover Project, The), my guess is that she isn't going to jump into the race.

Oh yeah - that Schweikert guy has the money race locked up, if not the balloting race. I don't know what the polling numbers among CD5 Republicans looks like, but Schweikert looks like the frontrunner based on contributions from individuals.

Oh yeah2 - Mitchell has more cash on hand that all of his Republican challengers combined. Mitchell still faces a Republican registration advantage in his district, but he is well-positioned to face whichever Rep makes it out of the primary.


CD6

Flake (R) (incumbent) - Total raised $58,342.00; $52,742.00 from individuals; $6,000.00 from PACs; $974,536.74 cash on hand.


CD7

Grijalva (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $91,312.93; $54,296 from individuals; $37,010.00 from PACs; $139,670.64 cash on hand.


CD8

Giffords (D) (incumbent) - Total raised $466,786.20; $333,616.20 from individuals; $138,070.00 from PACs; $1,672,821.88 cash on hand.

Bee (R) (challenger) - Total raised $466,092.60; $406,992.60 from individuals; $40,000 from PACs; $525,439.88 cash on hand.

CD5 field thins - Hatch-Miller out

One of the Republicans trying to become Harry Mitchell's challenger has dropped out of the race for the nomination in CD5.

From the EV Tribune (actually Paul Giblin's blog at the Trib) -

Arizona Corporation Commission member Jeff Hatch-Miller is dropping out of the crowded Republican primary race for the GOP nomination in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District.

Hatch-Miller told the Tribune he expects to issue a formal statement late today or Friday.

He made the decision after losing two key campaign staff members just as he was preparing to ramp up the campaign. His campaign coordinator died unexpectedly Friday, a day after his speech writer told him she had to cut back her work because of other commitments.

Expect at least one or two more of the erstwhile Republican challengers to drop out before the primary. Even with Hatch-Miller's withdrawal, there are five Reps in the race (counting the 'exploring' Susan Bitter Smith), and some will find that there isn't enough support to go around.

FEC reports are in

Edit to update: Turns out that Bob Lord's (D-CD3) financial report is up; I just missed it. I've updated the appropriate section of the post. Thanks to Drew for the comment...

End edit.

It's that time again - time for a quick summary of fundraising results for the various Congressional campaigns in AZ.


Key - Total raised, $ from individual donors, $ from PACs and committees, Cash on hand, and (where applicable) debts or loans.

I'll comment between CDs.

CD1

Kirkpatrick (D) $186108.71, 166108.71, 24000, 292867.66, 20000 loan

Renzi (R) $0, 0, 0, 1786.60, 456058.23 debt

Hay (R) $41822.32, 23935.92, 17886.40, 155727.77, 20000 loan

Shanker (D) $17517.18, 17517.18, 0, 4069.89

No info as yet from Mary Kim Titla (D) or a Democratic candidate that I've never heard of but who has filed organization paperwork, Jeffrey Brown. He's serious enough to have a real, though under construction, website, so I'll mention him here.

It's early still, but pending the still only rumored entries of other Republicans into the contest, right now the race is shaping up to be between industry lobbyist Hay for the Rs and DCCC-annointed Kirkpatrick for the Ds. Their early money and organizations will be tough to beat.


CD2

Franks (R) $72691, 42191, 30500, 86274.1

Thrasher (D) $8543, 8543, 0, 10693.56

Nothing too surprising here; while Franks is beatable, Thrasher needs support to do it. Surf to his website to volunteer or contribute.


CD3

Shadegg (R) $494544.92, 362794.92, 131750, 863636.22

Loyd (I) $14226.55, 0, 14226.55. 8884.33

Lord (D) $211071.23, 187821.23, 18250.00, 503182.54

Something tells me that Shadegg didn't raise half-a-million dollars in what is traditionally the slowest fundraising quarter of the year in response to Annie Loyd's $14K. While Shadegg has, and is expected to maintain, a fundraising advantage (incumbents usually do), he's in the race of his political life. Perhaps his efforts on behalf of John McCain's presidential campaign have an ulterior motive - he realizes that he benefits with McCain at the top of the ballot in November. McCain's presence, while it may not help Rep candidates nationwide, should fuel increased Rep voter turnout here in AZ.

Shadegg should keep something in mind as the campaign unfolds - by sacrificing his constituents and constituent services to campaign for McCain, he could cost himself more votes than he gains with McCain at the top of the ballot.


CD4

Pastor (D) $80125.63, 38120, 42005.63. 1222975.39

$1.2 million CoH and no opponent (as yet, anyway)? Pastor should expect lots of pressure to help out other Democratic candidates this summer.


CD5

Hayworth (R) $-2200, 0, 0, 15310.3

Mitchell (D) $210680, 137255, 71800, 868883.55

Ogsbury (R) $34880, 33380, 1500, 349191.47

Schweikert (R) $505,993, 246393.51, 9600, 412030.69, 250000 loan

Hatch-Miller (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.

Anderson (R) Just filed organizational paperwork; don't expect financial numbers until April.

Knaperek (R) $19948.54, 19948.54, 0, 27356.99

Even without the quarter million dollar loan, Schweikert is the one to beat (money-wise, anyway) in the Rep primary here, though Knaperek and Anderson are veteran campaigners and will know how to use their more limited funds to good effect.

Note: Telecom/cable industry lobbyist Susan Bitter Smith has said that she will make her run/don't run decision sometime after Super Tuesday. As of tonight, no paperwork for her, organizational or financial reporting, has been posted by the FEC.


CD6

Flake $305414.48, 258613.52, 46800.96, 999110.50

Richard Grayson is running a (self-admittedly) quixotic challenge to Flake, but that million dollars CoH of Flake's isn't aimed at him, it was aimed straight as erstwhile primary challenger Russell Pearce (R-National Alliance).

Pearce has recently set his sights somewhat lower - convincing LD18 State Senator Karen Johnson (R-UFO) to step aside and not run for reelection.

Pearce will face Democrat Judah Nativio for the seat.


CD7

Grijalva (D) $40475, 7975, 32500, 99351.11

The Reps are sure to run someone against Congressman Grijalva (they always do), but unless I miss my guess, Grijalva's organization will expend more effort on rounding up votes for presidential candidate Barack Obama than they'll have to expend on rounding up votes for Raul.


CD8

Bee (R) $151074.24, 141324.24, 9750, 161246.04

Giffords (D) $272253.88, 161209.45, 111044.43, 1317357.30

Unless Tim Bee can pull of a miracle dealing with the state's budget deficit, he may come to regret not resigning his seat in the Arizona State Senate. Giffords has an almost 9-to-1 CoH advantage, and Bee is stuck in Phoenix most of the week.

If he leaves the Senate now, he'll get roundly criticized for abandoning his constituents (something that a candidate for another office doesn't want to deal with); if he doesn't leave, his campaign can't get up to full speed until June or July, by which time, Giffords could have a 20:1 money advantage.

PolitickerAZ has a report on the numbers as well, and they have most of the duelling press releases that accompany the releases of fundraising numbers on the main site.

Later!

Short Attention Span Musing - campaigns edition

...Well, in a shock to the MSM, but not to anyone else, both parties' races for the Presidential nomination are wide open right now. Pundits are trying to spin Tuesday's results from New Hampshire as a "major" Clinton victory and a serious blow to Obama's White House aspirations.

Of course, a few days before the NH primary, those same pundits had pronounced the Clinton candidacy DOA and were writing Obama's inaugural speech.

Things aren't much clearer on the Republican side, with McCain newly-reannointed as the frontrunner after winning in New Hampshire.

Of course, he won in NH in 2000.

In other words - it's not over.

...As in Iowa, the most disappointed candidate coming out of the New Hampshire primary has to be Mitt Romney. In addition to the vast amounts of money that he spent here and the hundred-something campaign events, he had home-field advantage - not only was he the governor right across the border, he even has a vacation home there.

He was practically a resident, and still couldn't win there.

His candidacy is definitely in trouble; on the other hand, he hasn't exactly been trounced in Iowa or New Hampshire, and he still has oodles of money.

Next week's primary in Michigan is his last stand. He has to win in his home state (his father was governor there for a while), otherwise his candidacy will lose whatever momentum and support it has left.


...The phrase "It's not over" may not apply to Fred Thompson. At 1% in New Hampshire, he has rapidly gone from "Republican savior" to "Are his SAG dues up to date?" He may try to stay in through South Carolina, but he's done.


...Michigan could cause a big headache for the Democratc Party leadership. It was stripped of its delegates as a penalty for holding its primary before February 5. Hence, most Democratic candidates aren't on the ballot there.

In fact, there are only four candidates, and one of them, Sen. Christopher Dodd, has already dropped out. In fact, the only major candidate on the ballot there is Hillary Clinton, and there lies the problem.

There have been strong rumors that Michigan would have some or all of it 156 delegates restored, rumors that weren't discounted by a highly connected former DNC member at last night's D17 meeting.

If that comes to pass, and the race is close enough for Michigan's delegates to make a difference in the nomination, expect some justified howls of outrage from the non-Clinton campaigns (and from Democrats everywhere) at changing the nomination rules after the fact.

It would look like 'insiders' protecting one of their own, which brings up another point.

Another possibility that the 'powers-that-be' of the national party would have to consider is that even the appearance of inappropriate activity regarding the nomination could give the Republicans the kind of issue that they could use to pry Independent voters away from the Democrats.

I honestly don't think that they really *want* to restore Michigan's delegates, but the longer the race for the nomination stays a race, the more pressureto do so will be brought to bear by certain elements within the Party.

Best scenario for the Democratic leadership: the eventual nominee pulls away before any decision is made regarding Michigan, so that a restoration of its delegates doesn't make any difference.


...In disappointing news, for me, anyway, Governor Bill Richardson is apparently dropping out of the race. While he is far and away the best-qualified and best-suited candidate for the job, he doesn't have the 'rock star' qualities of Obama or Clinton (or even Edwards.) Therefore, he hasn't gained much traction with voters.

Our loss.

Note to the eventual nominee: consider Richardson for the VP slot on the ticket or for the Secretary of State job in your administration. It'll be the best appointment you could make.


...Matt Benson of the AZ Rep's Plugged In has a report that Governor Napolitano "may" endorse a candidate prior to the Presidential primary.

She shouldn't - either she'll have to work with the eventual nominee as Governor, or she'll work for the eventual nominee in his/her cabinet.

Doing anything more than helping the eventual nominee in the general election campaign does nothing for her or for Arizona.


CD5 race news -

...According to PolitickerAZ.com (a relatively new site, so I can't vouch for its accuracy yet. It seems to be pretty decent, though.), Susan Bitter Smith, a possible candidate for the Rep nomination to challenge Harry Mitchell, is waiting until February 5th to decide whether or not to enter the race.

Her stated reason for waiting?

Bitter Smith, the Executive Director of the Arizona Cable Television Communications Association, says that her decision depends on what happens on February 5 – the day Arizonans go to the polls to participate in the state’s presidential primary. She said that a strong Republican turnout would be encouraging.

Bitter Smith also said she was looking for a “strong Republican” to head up the Party ticket in November.

Not really news that; rumors about a possible run have been swirling for months. What is interesting is the rest of the quote from the article -

When asked which candidate she preferred, she laughed. “McCain, Rudy (Giuliani), Romney,” she said.

Well, at least she's consistent; once a corporate tool, always a corporate tool. Her public disdain of Huckabee, the least corporate of the Republican candidates, clearly indicates where her true loyalties lie.

Bottom line - she's not running to represent the residents of CD5.


...In other news from PolitickerAZ, Jeff Hatch-Miller, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, will be entering the CD5 race, joining Jim Ogsbury, Laura Knaperek, Mark Anderson, and David Schweikert (and possibly the aforementioned Bitter Smith) in the race for the Rep nomination.

He's termed out at the ACC, and as no statewide offices are up this year, it's a run for Congress or two years of toiling in the private sector for him. The field is crowded, but his connections should generate enough in contributions to make him viable in the primary.

Later!