They may have "Arizona" in their name, but the Arizona Multihousing Association is setting up to meddle in federal politics

Found this while looking at the FEC's website for Arizona-based candidate committees.  I didn't find any interesting candidate committees, but found an interesting PAC filing -

From the organizational filing -

The treasurer/head of the committee, Courtney LeVinus, is the president of the Arizona Multihousing Association (AMA), and the listed address, 1415 N. 7th Ave., is the address of the AMA.

From the AMA's website -

LeVinus has a history of contributions to candidates like Kyrsten Sinema and Debbie Lesko.

From one of Sinema's FEC filings -

My guess is this committee exists only to funnel monies to sketchy candidates whose will be to place enhancing corporate profits ahead of the public's best interest (read: Sinema and Republicans).

Was Sinema's appearance at Davos a job interview or a victory lap?

I'm leaning towards "victory lap."

Pointed at some of this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From CNBC -

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema pulls in cash from Wall Street, 

real estate titans as she mulls reelection bid

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema raked in campaign cash from corporate leaders at the end of last year as she prepared for a potential high-stakes 2024 reelection bid in the battleground state of Arizona.

Sinema, a centrist swing vote in the narrowly split Senate, switched her party affiliation from Democrat to independent in December. Real estate and private equity leaders, who have long helped to fill Sinema’s campaign coffers, contributed to a healthy cash haul for the senator in the final months of last year.

Her latest FEC report is here.  It shows that she was accepting payoffs contributions from the wealthy long before her appearance at the conference at Davos, well-known as a get-together for the ultra wealthy 

Her behavior at Davos?

From BusinessInsider -

Sinema and Manchin high-five over supporting the filibuster at 

World Economic Forum in Davos

That the United States held a free and fair election in 2022 is evidence that Kyrsten Sinema was right to support a rule that prevents most legislation from passing the Senate without a 60-vote supermajority, or so the newly independent senator from Arizona argued while speaking in Davos on Tuesday.

Sinema, a former Green Party activist turned centrist, left the Democratic Party following last year's vote. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, she attributed the move to her opposition to the two-party system and extremism on the left and right.

It certainly looks like her buyers contributors got their money's worth.

Sinema weaves a web. Though it may not work out her way.

When Sen. Kyrsten Sinema famously changed her registration and stopped being a Democrat, the political reporters in the MSM went orgasmic in the post-election flurry of  articles that they produced.  Horse race pieces are their strength, and they thought those over...until the next election cycle.  

Most of those articles have been about her change's effects on the Democratic Party here and in DC.

From CNN, dated 12/10 -

How Kyrsten Sinema’s decision makes Democrats’ 2024 Senate map tighter

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided to shake up the political world on Friday by becoming an independent. The former Democrat is still caucusing with the party in the Senate, so the Democratic caucus still has 51 members. Now, instead of 49 Democrats and two independents within their ranks, the caucus has 48 Democrats and three independents.

But that simple math hides a more clouded picture for Democrats and for Sinema herself. Sinema’s interests are no longer necessarily the Democrats’ best interests in the next Congress, and the 2024 Senate map became even more complicated for Democrats with Sinema’s decision.

To be clear, Sinema has always been a thorn in the Democrats side during her time in Congress. Over the last two years, Democrats have had to almost always make sure that any bill or nomination had Sinema’s support to have any chance of passing. That’s the math when you have only 50 Senate seats in a 100-seat chamber. A lot of bills and nominations were never voted on without Sinema and Manchin’s backing.

Personally, I believe two things -

1. Regardless of her ballot status in 2024, she already has her post-2024 gig lined up,  My guess is that she'll end as a K Street lobbyist (though her office may not actually be on K Street).for Big Pharma or hedge funds.

2. She'll only keep that gig until 2032 or maybe even 2028.  She seems to have her eye on being on a national ticket, as a candidate for POTUS or VPOTUS.

The one problem with that plan, IMO, is that she will be seen as all but untouchable politically.  Not for her habit  of throwing over the folks who supported her - in the world of DC politics, that's hardly a disqualifier.

Nope, Arizona has become a battleground state, and any ticket she is on will probably get trounced here.

Which will keep her from being considered for any national ticket.

Time for some 2024 speculation

Yes, the 2022 election is barely in the books and the inevitable lawsuit has been filed but not resolved, but 2024 races have already started.

First, a few caveats:

1. No actual humans were spoken to during the production of this post.  This is purely about me throwing ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks.

2. Any names/people mentioned here are folks who I think may look at running for a particular office but that doesn't mean that I think that all will actually run for that office.

3. Anyone who currently holds an office will be presumed to retain that office, if they actually run for it.  Some will be vulnerable and will lose their offices.

US President:

The 2020 nominees, Joe Biden and Cheeto, are making noises about running (actually, Cheeto has already announced his candidacy).  However, I don't believe that either will actually run in 2024.  They'll both be *old*.  Right now, both are making noises about doing so because of Biden's desire to not to already be seen as a lame duck POTUS and Cheeto's desire to not be seen as incarcerated.

And his ego.  Cheeto's vanity is boundless.  For him, the presidency is less about public service and more about self-aggrandizement. And profit.

US Senate seat from Arizona:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat is up for election, and her decision to change her registration to Independent opens up the Democratic primary in a big way,

The Republican primary was already going to be wide open but her move may make it wilder.

Doug Ducey, the current governor in AZ, has long been rumored to be eyeing Sinema's seat.

Mark Brnovich, the current Attorney General in AZ, may have lost the R Senate primary in 2022 and is term-limited as AG, but he doesn't seem to be going away - he's running radio ads catering to rural voters.  He may simply be burning off his budget, but I think that he's keeping his options open.

Paul Gosar and/or Andy Biggs, both are batshit crazy members of Congress.  Assuming they avoid going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

Kelli Ward, currently the batshit crazy chair of the AZGOP.  Assuming she avoids going to prison over their involvement in the insurrection of January 6, 2021.

An unnamed vassal of a rich guy who's looking to by a Senate seat.  Think: 2024 version of Blake Masters/Peter Thiel.

Other election-denying/anti-democracy Rs may also looking at the seat.

With Sinema's change, the R primary transitions from being the political equivalent of a pro wrestling battle royal to being an outright bar brawl.

If Sinema appears on the ballot, it will have the effect of siphoning votes away from the Democratic nominee, so if the R nominee isn't a batshit crazy ones, they'll win in a walkover; if the R voters pick a crazy nominee in their primary, the race will closer, maybe close enough for the D nominee to win.  For the record, while I consider Ducey and Brnovich to be poor public servants and simply lousy human beings, they're not batshit crazy.

The Democratic primary will be less wide open than the Republican primary but it will be more open than it would have been before Sinema left.

Ruben Gallego, current member of Congress, is the very early favorite here because he was already going to challenge Sinema in the primary when she was still a D.

Greg Stanton, current member of Congress and former mayor of Phoenix, has already made noises critical of Sinema.  From Twitter (pic taken yesterday) -

Other Ds who may be looking at the race -

Kate Gallego, current mayor of Phoenix.  Termed out and will not be in office in 2024.

Regina Romero, current mayor of Tucson.

Raquel Teran, currently in the AZ State Senate and the chair of the Arizona Democratic Party.  In AZ, it's almost a tradition that one doesn't become a state party chair without running for high office.

Kathy Hoffman. currently the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction.  She lost her re-election bid in 2022.

US Congress -

I expect that most of the current officeholders here will retain their office, but three of the Rs will be especially vulnerable - Juan Ciscomani in southern AZ and Eli Crane in Northern AZ because they will be first termers and David Schweikert because he's ethically challenged.

Also, if Ruben Gallego and/or Stanton run for the Senate, it wouldn't be surprising to see 1 or 2 (or more) of the others listed as potentially running for Senate to look at those seats instead.

Arizona Corporation Commission -

Three seats will be on the ballot.  They're currently held by D Anna Tovar and Rs Lea Marquez Peterson and Jim O'Connor.  While I expect that all of them will run for reelection I cannot and will not guess at what the primary fields will look like here.

Kyrsten Sinema makes official something we already knew - she's no Democrat

From Politico -

Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.

In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.

 In practical terms, there's no real change here - she may be nominally a Democrat, Independent, or whatever, Sinema will always do whatever she sees as immediately benefiting Kyrsten Sinema.

From CNN

The biggest winners in Tuesday's election?

Hint: *Not* the American people.

If the runoff election in GA goes Sen. Warnock's way*, the Senate will likely be 50-50 again, until 2024 this time, so the real "winners" will be Sens. Sinema and Manchin.

They'll still be relevant.

* - And if it goes the way of Republican Walker, Sinema and Manchin will be less relevant.  The Rs will then hold a 51-49 advantage in the chamber, and Mitch McConnell will use that advantage to kill off the filibuster in order to railroad through a raft of bad bills.

Is a compliment character assassination? It is, if a lousy human being issues the compliment

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From Business Insider -

Mitch McConnell calls Kyrsten Sinema the 'most effective first-term senator' he's seen and praises her defense of the filibuster

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday heaped praise on Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, saying she's the "most effective first-term senator" he's seen during his 37 years in the upper chamber.

Sinema delivered a speech on "The Future of Political Discourse and the Importance of Bipartisanship" at the University of Louisville's McConnell Center, named after the senior Kentucky senator, who introduced Sinema at the event.

"I've only known Kyrsten for four years, but she is, in my view — and I've told her this — the most effective first-term senator I've seen in my time in the Senate," the Republican leader said. "She is, today, what we have too few of in the Democratic Party: a genuine moderate, and a dealmaker."

One might think Sinema rebuffed the compliment.

In such a case, one might think wrong.

From The Count, via Yahoo! -

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ): "But despite our apparent differences, Senator McConnell and I have forged a friendship."

While speaking at an event held by the McConnell Center, Senator Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat from Arizona, spoke about her unlikely friendship with Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky. Although Senator Cinema is a registered Democrat, she is one of the few Democrats who is not always aligned with the Democratic party.

SINEMA: “But despite our apparent differences, Senator McConnell and I have forged a friendship. One that is rooted in our commonalities, including are pragmatic approach to legislating, our respect for the Senate as an institution, our love for our home states, and a dogged determination on behalf of our constituents. You know, in today's partisan Washington, it might shock some that a Democratic senator would consider the Republican leader of the Senate, her friend, but back home in Arizona, we don't view life through a partisan lens. Arizonans understand that while we may not agree on every issue, we do share the same values.”

My guess is that she hopes the Senate remains at 50 Ds and 50Rs so she and Joe Manchin remain relevant.

If the Rs gain control, she'll switch sides, unless she would be the Rs 60th vote.

I don't know if Kyrsten Sinema is running in 2024, but she's definitely hedging her bets.

Received this in the mail last week -

It's easy to tell that she's a lawyer by training - she throws around "weasel"* words like they're going out of style.

* = words with ambiguous or subjective meanings.

She "led" H.R. 3684 (Infrastructure bill),  What does that even mean?

She claims to have "Wrote and passed" S. 2938 (Bipartisan Safer Communities Act).  I don't know if she had a hand in writing the measure, but it was sponsored by Marco Rubio and cosponsored only by Rick Scott, both of whom are Rs from Florida.  Oh, and members of Congress don't "pass" anything. 

She also claims to have written and passed S. 2541, the Shadow Wolves Enforcement Act.  At least she sponsored this one.  Of course, it's actually called the Shadow Wolves "Enhancement" Act, and it seems to be reasonable to believe that the alleged writer of the measure know that.

She "led" efforts for H.R. 4346 (CHIPS Act, part of another bill).  Again, what does "led" even mean?

Also, she took credit for the passage of S. 3373 (the PACT Act).  "Ensured" seems to be her way of saying "Well, I didn't sponsor or cosponsor the bill, but I voted for it, so I'm going to take credit for it."

Lastly, she took credit for the drought funding and drug price negotiation by Medicare included in the f H.R. 5376, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.  She voted for it.

Shockingly, Arizona makes the news, and it's not for a bad thing

From AP (emphasis added by me)-

Russia sanctions 25 more Americans, including Penn, Stiller

Russia imposed personal sanctions Monday on 25 Americans, including 

actors Sean Penn and Ben Stiller, in response to U.S. sanctions against 

Russians stemming from the conflict in Ukraine.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo was on the new sanctions list, 

as were several American senators: 

Mark Kelly and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, 

Mike Rounds of South Dakota, Rick Scott of Florida, and 

Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.

That may the nicest thing ever said about Sinema.

Maybe she thinks that looking right on one issue will make people forget that she's wrong about nearly everything else

From the AZ Mirror, written by Jennifer Shutt -

Kyrsten Sinema, three other senators unveil bipartisan bill ensuring nationwide abortion rights

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators released legislation Monday that would codify Roe v. Wade, ensuring pregnant patients throughout the country once again have the right to an abortion. 

Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Arizona Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema said the measure, called the Reproductive Freedom For All Act, would protect access to abortion and contraception.

 

She seems to have reached the "throw spaghetti against the wall and hope some sticks" phase of her political career.

As of this writing, I cannot locate the bill on the Congress.gov website.

Short Attention Span Musing

Time to bring this concept back...

...Am I the only one who believes that if Barry Goldwater, the man who was too crazy conservative to win the presidential election in 1964. would be proclaimed to be "too liberal" by his own party and would be primaried for even a PC slot?

...If...OK,*when*...Cheeto announces his intent to run for POTUS in 2024, he'll get at least one less vote than he did in 2020.

From ABC -

'I'll never vote again' for former President Trump: Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers

Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers may lose his Republican primary for an open state senate seat this week, after he testified to the Jan. 6 committee about the pressure campaign from former President Donald Trump and his associates to undo the presidential election results in the state.

Bowers has drawn the ire of the Arizona GOP, who censured him earlier this month, and of former President Trump. But he's unapologetic about his congressional testimony and his decision not to overturn the Arizona's results.

"If we want to base a party and an authority and move people to solve problems, you can't base it on a lie. Ultimately, that falls apart," he told "This Week" co-anchor Jonathan Karl in an exclusive interview at his home in Mesa, Arizona.

...Chuck Todd, the moderator of NBC's Meet the Press, is a moron.  Not exactly a new or original opinion,  I know, but today brought it home.  He was on Channel 12's Sunday Square Off with Brahm Resnik and he pronounced that Senator Kysten Sinema wouldn't kill the climate/deficit reduction deal agreed to my Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin.

I think that not only will she do so, she'll have a twinkle in her eye and a song in her heart when she does so.

And the song will be playing so loud that others will be able to hear it.

I hope to be wrong about this, but her track record on things isn't positive.

Apparently Kyrsten Sinema resents not being the center of attention

From Axios -

Sinema indicates she may want to change Schumer-Manchin deal

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) had a message for her Democratic colleagues before she flew home to Arizona for the weekend: She's preserving her options.

Why it matters: Sinema has leverage and she knows it. Any potential modification to the Democrat's climate and deficit reduction package — like knocking out the $14 billion provision on carried interest — could cause the fragile deal to collapse.

[snip]

• Schumer and Manchin also inserted the language on taxing carried interest as regular income, which would raise approximately $14 billion, knowing full well that Sinema never agreed to it. That move blindsided Sinema.

• Now the private equity industry, which has contributed heavily to Sinema, is hopeful that she'll knock the provision out.

We'll know if she has set up her post-Senate gig as a highly-paid industry lobbyist by how enthusiastically she tanks the bill.

My guess is that she'll only have to move her office from Capitol Hill to K Street.

I just *love* it when industry lobbyists support Democrats

In case know, that title is sarcastic, folks.

On the other hand, it does provide solid evidence of the character of the recipient.

As if we didn't have that already.  In spades.

Got this in the mail on Wednesday -

There no "Paid for by" statement on this political mailer (caveat: nowhere on the mailer were the words "vote" or "elect" used, so this obviously political mailer may not have fit the legal definition of political communication).

The organization "We Build Arizona" lists it address as 1825 West Adams on its 2018 form 990, filed with the IRS, (downloaded from ProPublica).

Know what else is at 1825 West Adams?  The HQ of the AZ Chapter Of the Associated General Contractors of America.

They list their officers thusly -

David Martin is listed as the "chairman/director".  He also runs the AZ Chapter Of the Associated General Contractors of America.

Minter is listed as a director of We Build Arizona.  He's also the now-retired head of the Arizona Builders Alliance, an AGC affiliate

Oh, and he donated to Martha McSally when she ran for Senate.

Follow the money.

Guessing that AGC et. al. do so assiduously and only help those who help them.

Ducey says he's not running for Senate

From The Hill -

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey tells donors he won't run for Senate

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) has put what Republicans see as a final kibosh on any chances he would challenge Sen. Mark Kelly (D) later this year, ending a long-running courtship by top Washington Republicans who saw him as their best hope of winning back the seat.

In a letter to donors, Ducey said this year, the last of his eight years in the governor’s office, would be the end of his public service career.

He may not be running in 2022, but in 2024?

I expect that he will be looking *hard* at Kyrsten Sinema's seat in the Senate, no matter what she does. (She's more vulnerable than Kelly, IMHO)

And I also expect that he will also be looking at a run for the White House. (His decision there may depend on if Cheeto continues to dominate GQP politics and if he runs in 2024)

And saying that this year will be the "end of his public service career" implies that he ever really worked for the public.  He never has done so.

US Sen. Kyrsten Sinema may be the most accomplished rationalizer in the state of Arizona

Watching her interview on Phoenix Channel 3's Politics Unplugged (video not posted as of this writing), that's the conclusion that I've reached.

And given that we live in AZ, home of unabashed rationalizers like Doug Ducey, referring to her as the "most accomplished" one is saying something.

Sinema has something to worry about, Kelly's ahead: Arizona poll day

Pointed to the Sinema stuff by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From a Data for Progress release -

Poll: Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema Set to Be Unseated by Possible Challenger Ruben Gallego in 2024 Primary Landslide

In October 2021, Data for Progress published poll findings that captured the extent of Arizona Democratic primary voters’ dissatisfaction with Senator Kyrsten Sinema: She had the highest unfavorability rating of any elected Democrat tested in the state, and she was poised to lose her 2024 primary by a wide margin.

Since then, speculation has mounted that progressive Representative Ruben Gallego, a Harvard-educated Iraq War veteran, is seriously considering a bid. Meanwhile, Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party this week for her defense of the filibuster, which came at the expense of passing popular voting rights legislation. 

Data for Progress’ initial polling found Gallego to be in the best position to beat Sinema in 2024. New Data for Progress polling finds that, since October, Sinema’s favorability has dipped even further — and that Gallego’s potential to secure a primary victory has increased.

From the full poll -

[snip]

For Senator Kyrsten Sinema, her next hurdle is going to be her 2024 primary election, where she is going to have to convince Democratic primary voters in Arizona that she deserves to keep her job. Activists who are disappointed with her obstructionism and reluctance to support President Biden’s popular agenda are already organizing to draft other high profile Arizona politicians, like Rep. Ruben Gallego, to run against her in 2024. According to our new poll of likely Arizona Democratic primary voters conducted in October, using the same methodology we used in the recent New York City mayoral primary, we find that Sen. Sinema faces a steep uphill battle to defend her record and convince voters she should stay — as negative sentiment towards her continues to grow.

[snip]

From FiveThirtyEight, also from a Data for Progress poll -

Also from Data for Progress -

Mark Kelly Narrowly Leads in Arizona 2022 General Election Matchup

In recent years, Arizona — a traditional battleground state — has trended blue. Voters elected Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly to the Senate in upset victories in 2018 and 2020, respectively, and in 2020 the state narrowly voted for Joe Biden. But amid surges in Republican voter enthusiasm and turnout, Arizona is once again poised to become a battleground. Kelly, who won his seat in a special election, is running for his first full term, and a crowded slate of Republicans are hoping to replace him. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey is term-limited and is thus not eligible to run for re-election in 2022. While he has stated he will not be joining his party’s Senate primary as recently as January 20, 2022, speculation about a possible run has mounted anyway.

New Data for Progress polling gauges the state of the 2022 midterm elections in Arizona, analyzing favorability and approval across different candidates and elected officials as well as the issues Arizona voters support. 

Yes, I do wish that Kelly was doing better (and I think he should be), but I'm torn - would he be better off facing Brnovich or Ducey?

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Sinema better have a corporate lobbying gig already lined up.