Yes, Kyrsten Sinema is in trouble

From Data For Progress (pointed to this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire) - 

WHO IS KYRSTEN SINEMA REALLY REPRESENTING?

Halfway through her term as Senator of Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema is finding herself seemingly at odds with the members of her party. Her dedication to preserving the filibuster has stood as a significant obstacle to enacting a number of important bills and to more general Democratic governance despite the party’s trifecta in Washington, DC. Most recently, her unwavering stance on the filibuster enabled Republicans to block the For the People Act, a sweeping voting rights bill that is popular with the Democratic base, leadership, and her constituents back home in Arizona. In a recent poll by Data For Progress, we found strong majority support for this bill and a number of others that are high on the Democrats’ policy agenda. We also found that Arizona voters from across the political spectrum are displeased overall with her performance as Senator. Taken together, this begs the question: if her policy stances are alienating leadership and voters alike, who exactly is Kyrsten Sinema representing in Congress?

Even if she makes it through a primary, in a general election, she'll have problems.

I expect that many of the folks who, like me, held their noses and voted for her in 2018, will skip the race if she's on the general election ballot in 2024.

It also may be why Doug Ducey is letting Mark Brnovich take on Mark Kelly in 2022 for his seat in the US Senate; in 2024, he wants to be the Republican nominee for POTUS, and may settle for being the R nominee for VPOTUS.  Depending on how that works out, he may accept the consolation prize of challenging Sinema for a spot in the US Senate.

The best thing for Sinema may be if the R nominee is someone who is utterly nuts; say a Gosar or Biggs.

On the other hand, they're in safe Congressional districts so they may not run for a Senate seat..

Ducey allegedly tries to deplete the state's budget to aid an ally

Why isn't this a bigger story here?

From KJZZ (it's a USA Today story, and I'd link to that one, but the USA Today story is behind a paywall) - 

USA Today Investigation Links Ducey With Efforts To Extract $100M In Tax Refunds

Gov. Doug Ducey has long been seen as having ambitions beyond the Governor’s Office, perhaps even for the United States presidency. And to get there, he would need powerful and wealthy allies.

In his latest piece, Craig Harris, a reporter with USA Today who formerly worked at the Arizona Republic, investigated why Ducey and a handful of his top staffers supported a multi-year effort by a powerful Texas businessman and Republican donor to extract millions of dollars in tax refunds from Arizona’s Department of Revenue, despite alleged conflicts of interest.

The Urban Institute has a pretty good backgrounder on Arizona's budget here.

Some of the illustrations a quite eye-opening.

Ducey is now an expert at the hypocritical two step

And he's dancing as fast as he can.

Now he's accusing two public school districts of violating the law...by following the guidance of his own health department.

From KJZZ -

The Arizona Governor’s Office sent two letters to Peoria Unified School District and Catalina Foothills School District, informing them that their quarantine policies for unvaccinated students was breaking the law.

[snip]

In a statement, Julie Farbarik, a spokesperson for Catalina Foothills School District in Tucson, says they are “perplexed” by Ducey’s letter. She says public schools use quarantine and isolation practices established by the Arizona Department of Health Services. And currently, both Catalina Foothills School District and Peoria Unified School District are doing just that. 

From AZDHS -

Note: Pic of AZDHS' guidelines posted because I expect that Ducey and/or his "advisers" to have them changed so that the school districts violate what is posted.

From Peoria Unified School District -

July 7, 2021 Update: This legislative session, a bill was passed that prohibits Arizona school districts from requiring students or staff wear masks during school hours and on district property. Schools are also prohibited from requiring vaccines or masks to participate in in-person instruction. 

Vaccinations: Students, staff and community members are not required to be vaccinated in order to be on campus. 
Quarantine: All students must follow requirements from Maricopa County Department of Public Health (MCDPH) which state that students who are exposed to COVID-19 must quarantine for 10 days from the date of exposure. Exposure is defined as being within 6-feet for 15 cumulative minutes or more. A student who has proof of vaccination will not be required to quarantine if they are exposed to someone with COVID-19 on campus, as per MCDPH.
Face Coverings/Masks: Optional for staff, students, and visitors, inside and outside. 
PPE and Hygiene: PPE will continue to be available to students and staff who request them. Individual bottles and hand sanitizer stations will continue to be available on all campuses.
Cafeteria Operations: Returning to as close to normal as possible, with 3 ft. distancing when feasible. Hand sanitizing stations available where lines form. Continued packaging of items such as fruit and veggie bar selections. 
Additional Measures:

• Daily cleaning has returned to normal operations, in addition to summer “deep cleaning." 
• Disinfecting only in locations in which a positive case has been reported, or when requested by staff.
• Individual schools will notify parents regarding morning drop-off procedures.
• Use of air purifiers will continue indefinitely.

Additional updates may be made in accordance with Arizona Department of Public Health (ADHS), Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Executive Orders issued by Governor Doug Ducey and the decisions made by the district’s Governing Board and Leadership Team. Some procedures and protocols may vary by school based on enrollment or layout of school campus and will be shared with parents by school principals.

I don't see any violation, and unless the judge in this matter was appointed by Ducey, I expect that a judge won't either when this is litigated in court.

The US' first lady cares more about Arizonans than does AZ's governor

 From KJZZ -

'Do It For Your Children': Jill Biden Calls On Arizonans To Get Vaccinated

First lady Jill Biden is asking Arizonans to get vaccinated. She stopped in Phoenix on Wednesday to highlight the need for higher COVID-19 immunization rates in the state.

Biden and second gentleman Doug Emhoff visited a vaccination event at a west Phoenix middle school. After greeting teenagers who were there to receive the Pfizer vaccine, Biden and Emhoff spoke to an audience that included several Arizona lawmakers and tribal leaders. Biden pointed out Arizona’s vaccination rate is behind the national average.

Yet, while someone from DC wants Arizonans to get vaccinated, Doug Ducey is bragging about letting up on Covid.  From the governor's own website - 

Governor Doug Ducey Rescinds 25 Pandemic-Related Executive Orders

Governor Doug Ducey today is rescinding 25 Executive Orders related to the COVID-19 pandemic following action by the Arizona Legislature to codify into law many of the policies enacted by the Executive Orders to protect against excessive mandates, including mask usage in schools and prohibiting vaccine passports.

Yup, he's running for something in 2024; I don't yet know if he'll be running for POTUS/VPOTUS or against Kyrsten Sinema for Senate.

AZSenate votes to override governor's veto; Republicans hope that Ducey doesn't get petty about it

 Good luck with that.

From KJZZ - 

Senate Takes Rare Vote To Override Gubernatorial Veto, But House Does Not

State senators did something Thursday they haven't done in four decades and voted to override a gubernatorial veto.

Now they're hoping that Gov. Doug Ducey doesn't retaliate.

[snip]

Sen. Kelly Townsend (R-Mesa) who voted in favor of the override, said she hopes that Ducey, facing the prospect of being the first governor in four decades to be overridden — and by his own political party — does not lash out at the Senate.

"If this action brings retaliation in that other bills are vetoed that are passed by the people of this body, that, then, brings harm to the people of this state," she said.

Ducey appears to be taking the move in stride.

"This seems pretty procedural in nature, on a technical bill," press aide C.J. Karamargin said in a prepared statement. He said Ducey is focused on getting approval for the budget and tax cuts "and he's pleased that the legislature has acted."

The override vote, most of the votes came from Democrats -

Handicapping the R primary for governor (early edition)

 

No, she's not running in the R primary, but I thought it would be best to lead off with a pic of the person that I think will be the next governor of Arizona.

Let's be clear - after Cheeto won the R primary in 2016, I am loathe to make predictions in an R primary, so I'm not counting anyone out there.

Having said that. my guess is that the R primary for governor of AZ will come down to state treasurer Kimberly Yee and developer Karrin Taylor Robson.

Former TV news anchor Kari Lake, and the others, have a chance, but most of their support seems to be of the "whistling past the graveyard" variety.

Plus, Fife Symington, convicted and pardoned former governor of AZ, and Joe Arpaio, convicted and pardoned former sheriff of Maricopa County AZ, will make their quadrennial flirtations with a run in efforts to garner some media attention.

Yup, it's going to be a crowded R primary, full of folks looking for a chance to replace Dougie.

While one or two big "names" may jump into the race later, right now, it appears that it will come down to Yee and Robson.

And in a race that close, it may come down to endorsements and support from R legislators and Ducey himself.

It would seem that Yee, a former legislator and current associate of Dougie, would seem to have an edge in that area, but don't underrate Robson's ties in this area.

In addition to being the daughter of Carl Kunasek, a long-time member of the legislature and Arizona Corporation Commission, and sister of Andy Kunasek, a former member and chair of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, before she was a Robson, she helped funnel money to some of the members of the legislature, building relationships there.

And as Republicans, while they may have friendships with Yee, their first loyalty, once and always, is to money.

Don't discount Ragan's presence as treasurer, both here and on Robson's gubernatorial committee.

She's a former staffer for former US Senator Jon Kyl, who was noted for being all about the money, and has ties to Kirk Adams, a former legislator and former chief of staff for Dougie, also noted for being all about the money.

In short, get your popcorn out.  The R primary is going to be interesting, with a lot of back channel calling in of favors and public contortions as R legislators try to have it both ways.

Disclosure time: I assume that the Democratic primary will come down to Katie Hobbs, current Arizona Secretary of State, and someone else (I don't know who yet, but there always is one).

I used to live in her LD and was impressed by her work as a legislator and have been impressed with her work as AZSOS

I've already decided to support her in the primary and have already given a (small) donation to her campaign.

I recommend that readers do the same.

Ducey pays off a critic, begging the question: Is there a "hush money" line item in the state budget?

From the Arizona Republic, written by Mary Jo Pitzl and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez -

Arizona Board of Regents Chairman Mark Killian, an outspoken critic of the state budget backed by Gov. Doug Ducey and the Legislature, is now a Ducey Cabinet member.

Ducey announced Friday that Killian is being installed as his Department of Agriculture director, and noting that he "brings decades of unique public service and private sector experience, and his extensive and successful background in farming and ranching will be hugely valuable in this role. He's a welcome addition to this department and our administration."

 Per Ballotpedia, the director position pays better than $102K per year.

Guess that I never have to worry about the Ducey administration offering me a job - I may be soft-spoken, but biting my tongue is not in my job skill repertoire.

Whether we are talking about abused children in AZ or students paying more for an education here, it's "deja vu all over again"

...Remember just a couple of years ago when a huge scandal broke here in Arizona over the failure of Arizona's then-child welfare agency, Child Protective Services, to investigate thousands of reports of child abuse?

One of the "fixes" implemented was to take the agency out from under the auspices of the Department of Economic Security (DES), change its name to "Department of Child Safety", and make it a stand-alone cabinet-level department.

Turns out that they were just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

From the Arizona Republic, written by Mary Jo Pitzl -

The state's child-welfare agency, at the direction of its new chief, has stopped assigning lower-priority cases of child abuse and neglect for investigation.
 
The policy shift echoes a practice that threw the system into turmoil nearly 1 1/2 years ago.

Guess that it's not a scandal when it is an official policy...


...Remember back to all of less than a year ago when candidate Doug Ducey blamed his Democratic opponent for students (or parents) having to pay more to attend a state university?

When it comes time to blame someone for the latest developments in that area, Governor Doug Ducey should be looking in a mirror.

From the Arizona Republic, written by Anne Ryman and Kaila White -

Arizona's three state universities responded Friday to a 13 percent cut in their state funding by proposing to raise the price of higher education for many of their students.
 
Arizona State University students could take the biggest hit. President Michael Crow proposed a one-time, $320 surcharge for all in-state students to offset some of the $53 million in state funding cuts to ASU.

So, in business education, is the practice of promising anything to get the job but delivering almost the opposite when in the job covered in undergraduate coursework or is it part of MBA work?

Could be wrong here, but there's no mention of an MBA in Ducey's official bio, so it is probably covered in undergraduate coursework.

Of course, he could just be a natural-born ethical skell "prodigy".


My question for readers:  How long will it be before we look back on the days of the Brewer administration, as ugly as they were, and think of them as "the good old days"?

The "Arizona two-step" is becoming a line dance: Ducey joins the lege's Rs in "going dark"

Earlier this week, the Republicans in the Arizona House of Representatives voted to close their caucus meetings to the public.

Now, new governor Doug "Dark Money" Ducey has joined them in the effort to impair the ability of Arizonans to keep an eye on activities at the Capitol - he's removed the visitor logs from the governor's office.

From ProgressNow Arizona -

Gov. Doug Ducey, who surfed a wave of anonymous dark money into office in November, does not want the public to know who is coming up to the ninth floor to meet with him. Earlier this week, the visitor’s log that had been on the 8^th floor of the Executive Tower through multiple governors quietly disappeared. In the Capitol Times Yellowsheet, where the story broke, a Ducey spokesman defended the lack of transparency. Ducey’s flack said ditching the visitors log would make the office “more efficient” because the logs weren’t always accurate.

Like his fellow travelers at the lege, Ducey doesn't want the public (or the working media) to know what is going on at the Capitol and he is doing whatever he can to impede scrutiny.

If the anti-transparency efforts get any more widespread, the "line dance" will become an "orgy".

Which brings us to a proposal from my "favorite" state senator, John Kavanagh (R-LD23).

His SB1098 would *quadruple* the size of public service corporations (energy utilities, water companies, etc.) allowed to seek consumer rate increases without a public hearing before the Arizona Corporation Commission.

Should we put together a referendum campaign to change the state constitution so that when our state's electeds foist their typical "public policy" off on the public, they have to wear condoms while doing so?

At least until they understand the difference between "doing the public good" and "doing the public".



Notes:

In this context, "favorite" is sarcastic.

SB1098 is being fast-tracked - it's scheduled to go before the state senate's Committee on Commerce and Workforce Development on Monday (1:45 p.m., SHR1).

Governor Doug Ducey: pro-education...until the rubber hits the road

Many folks are weighing in on Arizona Governor Doug Ducey's FY2016 budget proposal.  They are using a lot of words.

Tonight, I believe in the old saying about pictures being worth a thousand words.  :)

Ducey's steps to the budget proposal, illustrated (source documents here):

1. Proclaim the awesome things that you are doing for K-12 public education -

2. Contradict yourself.

Ducey claims that he wants to allocate nearly $160 million dollars more to K-12 education but tries to gloss over the fact that in his proposal, most of the funds come from...wait for it...K-12 education.

And at that, even the putative increase to education spending seems to be predicated on the state obeying a court that ruled that the state must allocate more for spending.  They (the governor and the lege) have been fighting the ruling.  If the judge backs down, expect the funding to disappear.

But not the cuts.



3. Screw over higher ed, expecting the Arizona Board of Regents to make up the lost funding with tuition increases.

The hypocrisy here is that he spent most of his gubernatorial campaign blaming his opponent, former Regent chair Fred Duval, for tuition increases necessitated by previous cuts to higher ed funding.

4.  Make sure your pals in the private prison industry are taken care of.

Even if it is at the expense of the state's education system.

Other information -

This next one is just wishful thinking (aka - fairy tale math).  It also looks like an easy way for the Ducey admin to give out a lucrative contract to some FOD* with little to no oversight -

* = "Friend of Dougie"

Doug Ducey, less "pro-education" and more "pro-incarceration"

AZ lege and Doug Ducey showing their priorities. Guess what *isn't* one of them

Arizona has made the national news again, this time as the first state to require that students pass a civics test before they can graduate high school (HB2064).

From Time Magazine -

Arizona on Thursday became the first state in the nation to pass legislation requiring high school students to pass the U.S. citizenship test on civics before they can graduate — part of a growing nationwide effort to boost civics education.

The swift action by the Arizona Legislature comes as states around the country take up similar measures. The proposal requires high school students to correctly answer 60 of 100 questions on the civics portion of the test new citizens must pass.

What didn't they pass and see signed into law by the new governor?  Legally adequate (and judicially required) education funding.

Other things the lege is proposing:

- Preventing residency challenges to electeds and candidates (If this one passes, expect it to be challenged in court and/or at the ballot box)

- Increasing the size of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors from the current five members to seven (I thought the Rs were champions of "small government"?)

- Adding elected officials to a specially protected class of persons where a simple assault on them (a misdemeanor) is legally considered to be aggravated assault (a felony) (Sources indicate that at its beginning, this measure was intended to protect judges, but, as written, it covers all elected officials from the governor down to precinct committeemen.  Who doesn't it cover?  Judges...)

- Moving the date of Arizona's primary election date from November to May (Nice to know that every other problem facing the state has been addressed)

- Taking control of funds granted to Arizona by the federal government from the governor and giving it to the legislature (this one is an annual effort.  It has passed in the past, but since it needs the governor's signature to be enacted, don't hold your breath waiting for this one to become law)

- Adding (and here) the position of "lieutenant governor" to the list of Arizona elected officials (as written, the proposal would make the position an appointed one, not an elected one [in practical terms])

- Forcing schools to cut spending on maintenance and operations

- Restricting the ability of Arizona citizens to put ballot questions before the voters or to recall wayward elected officials

- Repealing Clean Elections (here, too) (another bill proposal that's seen annually)

- Banning the activation of a pedestrian "walk" signal at a traffic light if the purpose of that act is to slow down traffic in order to solicit drivers for money or for a business

- Regulating the size of political signs

- Keeping the names of the winners of winners of prizes in the Arizona lottery private


What isn't a proposal supported by the legislature and governor?

Paying the bills.



Note: On an related note, the governor's proposed budget will be released at 2:30 and will be available here.  As I am not an insider, I don't know the details of it yet, but have been told that the financial starvation of the state's education will continue under Doug Ducey's budget.


Note2:  Regarding the civics test law, follow the money.

More fun with social media: Doug Ducey boasts about his college fraternity affiliation. Maybe he shouldn't have.

On Wednesday, Doug Ducey, Arizona State Treasurer and a candidate for the Republican nomination for governor, tweeted this -

Member of PKA?  Probably not something to brag about. 

From KSAZ (Phoenix channel 10), dated September 4, 2013 -

Tempe Police have confirmed that a 19-year-old boy beaten nearly to death early Monday morning was a member of ASU fraternity Sigma Phi Epsilon. The suspects are members of rival frat Pi Kappa Alpha.

The 19-year-old remains in the hospital. He underwent several surgery Wednesday morning, and Sgt. Mike Pooley says his injuries are so severe, he will need multiple surgeries. 

While another Twitter user pointed out PKA's violent record, as of this writing, Ducey has not responded, or clarified or removed the tweet.

Psssst. Didja hear the latest rumor?

Just a compilation of some recent political rumors here in AZ...

...The Phoenix Business Journal (and other sources) has been reporting that Arizona Congressman Ed Pastor (D-AZ7) is under consideration for a spot in the President's cabinet as Secretary of Transportation.

From the article, written by Mike Sunnucks -

 

Longtime Phoenix congressman Ed Pastor’s name has popped up as a possible successor to the departing U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

 

That could open up Pastor’s Democratic-leaning and Hispanic-majority district, and there will be no shortage of possible contenders from within his party.

Some of the names of contenders listed in the article:  Mary Rose Wilcox, a member of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors; Laura Pastor, the Congressman's daughter and 2007 candidate for Phoenix City Council; and Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix.  In addition, pretty much every legislator with ties to Central or South Phoenix, or southwestern Maricopa County, is also mentioned.

I don't know if Pastor has a serious chance at the cabinet seat, but if it happens, look for a rugged Democratic primary in the race to fill the seat for the remainder of his term.  Pastor's district is heavily Democratic (the district has slightly less than three times as many Ds as it does Rs), and the winner of the special election will get the inside lane on what should be a safe seat for them for years, maybe decades.

This isn't the first time in recent years Pastor has been the subject of rumors of a possible presidential appointment - at the beginning of Barack Obama's first term in the White House, Pastor was talked about as a dark horse candidate for the ambassador's post in Mexico.  That one didn't happen, but even then, it didn't seem likely.  This one...?


...Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and three-time candidate for governor (and a former mayor of Phoenix), is mulling a run at another term as AG.

From Politics Plugged In, written by Dennis Welch

Old pols never die and many times they never fade away, either.

 

Take former Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard for example. The three time gubernatorial loser told 3TV this week that he might want his old job back.

 

“I’ve been seriously thinking about it because I don’t like seeing what’s happening to the office,” Goddard said over the telephone. “Morale has fallen and a lot of people are leaving.”

...Jim Lane, Mayor of Scottsdale, is making noises, and moves, like someone who is strongly considering a 2014 run at a statewide office.  John Washington, in a post on Scottsdale Trails, dropped a hint that Lane may be looking at a run at either Arizona Secretary of State or even Governor.  According to the post, Jason Rose, one of the premier Republican PR flacks in AZ and a Lane "advisor", has publicly stated that Lane isn't considering a run for AZ Treasurer.

However, that denial may fall into the category of "whistling past resign-to-run" - as part of Scottsdale's State of the City activities this past week, at one event, Lane was introduced by Doug Ducey, who is none other than the current AZ Treasurer.  And Ducey himself is the subject of rumors regarding a possible 2014 run for Governor.

There is also talk that the "Lane as a candidate for AZSOS" talk was less a serious consideration than a threat to gain the support of State Senator Michele Reagan (R-LD23), a real candidate for SOS.  Apparently, while Reagan and Lane are both members of the chamber of commerce wing of the AZGOP, and both are from Scottsdale, they aren't exactly best friends.

Lastly, while Lane has strong ties to the business community, he is taking steps to shore up his support among social conservatives.

Witness this picture of the invitation to an official event with Jim Lane, Mayor -

While the invite touts the event as "Breakfast With The Mayor", has the city's logo on it, and is going to take place in a city-owned facility (Granite Reef Senior Center), it has a rather curious "copyright" statement - it was copyrighted by the Paradise Valley Community Church.

Hmmm...

Obviously, nothing is definite yet (other than that Lane and Rose need a civics class refresher, focusing on the separation of church and state), but if a Lane statewide candidacy comes to pass, political dominos will fall in Scottsdale in much the same way that an elevation of Ed Pastor to the president's cabinet would set off a political reshuffling in south and west Phoenix.  Virginia Korte and Bob Littlefield, current members of the Scottsdale City Council, would almost certainly test the waters.  That would open up the race for one of the state representative spots in north Scottsdale, a position that Littlefield is "exploring", and so on...

...More to come as the 2014 election cycle reaches full speed...

Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe, "pondering" a 2014 run for governor

From the Phoenix Business Journal, written by Mike Sunnucks -

Former Tempe mayor Hugh Hallman is looking at running for Arizona governor in 2014.

 

The Republican said on his website today he is pondering a run.

 

“Over the next few months, I will be traveling the state of Arizona to speak with and listen to people from all walks of life about what’s really important to them in their state government, and how we can address our priorities successfully,” Hallman said. “At that time, I will make a final decision about pursuing elected office. I have one particular elected office very clearly in mind — the office of governor of Arizona.”

If he runs and gains the R nomination next year, he could suffer the embarrassment of losing Tempe, his hometown, in the general election.  As mayor of Tempe, he kept a lid on the anti-constituent craziness that permeates internal Republican politics these days, but to get through the Republican primary, he'll need to cut loose with the nihilist rhetoric of the Rs' social and fiscal agendas.

That will cost him votes in Tempe. 

Lots of votes.

Sunnucks' piece went on to list a few other rumored candidates -

On the Democratic side:  Dr. Richard Carmona, former US Surgeon General and 2012 Democratic nominee for US Senate; Fred Duval, businessman, author, and former President of the Arizona Board of Regents; and Greg Stanton, mayor of Phoenix.

On the Republican side:  State Treasurer Doug Ducey and AZ Secretary of State Ken Bennett.


Possible additions/subtractions to that list:

Greg Stanton has stated that he is not running for governor in 2014 (that doesn't mean he won't change his mind at some point, but 2014 really might be too early for him to go for the governor's job.)

State Representative Chad Campbell, the Democratic leader in the AZ House, is also eyeing a run.  Like the others mentioned here, he may end up not running for governor (right now, they're all "pondering"), but he is probably more likely to run than Carmona is, at this point.

Felecia Rotellini, the impressive Democratic nominee for AZ Attorney General in 2010, is being talked up as a potential candidate.  I think that she is more likely to mount another run at AG, but it's still early - anything could happen.

Scott Smith, the Republican mayor of Mesa.  Has had success during his administration (Mesa is no longer the political, social, economic, intellectual, and cultural laughingstock of Arizona) and is young enough (mid to late 50s) that he could wait until 2018.  On the other hand, the wheels could fall off in Mesa at any time (or, more likely, the Arizona legislature could slash Mesa's tires at any time), so he may be best served by running in 2014.

Steve Pierce, former president of the AZ state senate (he won reelection to the Senate, but lost the R caucus vote for a return to the senate presidency) and rancher in Yavapai County, is rumored to be eyeing the race, but a candidate who isn't from Maricopa or Pima counties has an uphill path.  Add in the fact that while former legislators *have* made it to the 9th Floor (Jan Brewer, Jane Hull), they didn't get there directly, going through other offices first, and he may be least likely to run of anyone mentioned in this post.

Gary Pierce (no relation to Steve), member and former chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission, is also rumored to be interested in the governor's office.  Those rumors received a boost when fellow R Bob Stump was elected as chair of the ACC, presumably to allow Gary Pierce the time to explore a run.


In other 2014 news, maybe we should rename the office of the Arizona Attorney General as the office of Arizona Eternal Optimist:

Tom Horne has formed a reelection committee.

Good God, this is going to be fun.  :)