A pic guaranteed to tick off election deniers

Early ballots are beginning to arrive

And mine has already arrived.

The ballot is long this year -

I was going to skip one race (CD1) if the Democratic nominee ran as R-lite in the general election campaign.

Amish Shah, the Democratic nominee, has done so; however, a Republican, House Speaker Mike Johnson said something on NBC's Meet The Press today that made change my mind on the topic.

Johnson stated the the U.S. had a peaceful transfer of power after the election in 2020.

From the NBCNews transcript of today's MTP episode (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON:

That’s – no, the point is the process works. We have the peaceful transfer of power. We did in 2020. We will in 2024. Everybody can sigh and take a deep breath. Our system is going to work. We have the greatest system in the history of the world because we live in the greatest country in the world. But that last part is in jeopardy right now. This is a decisive election, and everybody knows it, and that's why we're going to be -- have given the chance to run this country again and we're going to turn it around, and I can't wait.

The people who feared for their lives and the families of those killed during the insurrection of January 6, 2021 may disagree on that subject.

Bottom line:  There's no way that a shameless liar like him should be allowed to continue to be speaker and this race may end his speakership, if Shah wins the race.

Another race that was, interestingly, also decided for me by a Republican (many Republicans, in this case) was the race for Maricopa County Recorder.

If Republican incumbent Stephen Richer made it through their primary to face Democratic challenger Tim Stringham in the general election, I would have had a decision to make.  I value competence.

However, R voters my decision an easy one - they nominated Justin Heap, an unqualified ideologue, for the job.

My take on statewide ballot questions is here;

As for the retention of the judges who are on this year's ballot, Civic Engagement Beyond Voting has a scorecard here.

The complete report from the Arizona Judicial Performance Review Commission (JPR) is here.  One caveat:  a commission that is part of the state's judicial branch believes that all of the judges on the ballot meet their standards. [start sarcasm] Quelle surprise! [/end sarcasm]

What JPR doesn't evaluate or even care about are judges who are lousy human beings and worse public servants.

I'll be voting to not retain Clint Bolick and Kathryn King of the AZ Supreme Court and Angela Paton of the AZ Court of Appeals.  Bolick and King voted to uphold Arizona's pre-statehood abortion ban and Paton is unqualified for two reasons: 1. she's a Federalist society stooge and 2. she's married to former legislator and current industry lobbyist Jonathan Paton, who was one of the authors of Proposition 137, the scheme from legislative Republicans to do away with judicial retention elections.

Note: Bolick, King, and Paton were appointed by former governor Doug Ducey.

The one Maricopa County judge I'll be voting to not retain is civil court judge Christopher Coury, who's got temperament issues.

Legislative schedule - week starting 10/13/2024

Nada, as in there is nothing scheduled at this point. 

Need your daily dose of hypocrisy? You'll get it when an election denier runs for office.

Early ballots are in the mail, so I did some research/due diligence on the races that I know nothing about.

For brevity's sake, I'll refer to them as "school board" races.

For the At-Large seat in the Phoenix Union HSD, incumbent Aaron Marquez, Francisco Pastor-Rivera, Aden Ramirez, and Debbie Cross are in a four-way race for two seats.

At least in a shallow search, none of them raise any red flags.

Note: Marquez is also a candidate for State Representative in LD5.  If he wins both races, that's not a problem - state legislators can also serve on school boards.

This race will be difficult - after Marquez, I don't know who to vote for.

In the Balsz ESD race, incumbent Vic Grace, incumbent Gail Knight, Lezley Shepherd, and Jacob George are in a four-way race for three seats.

Note: I looked for websites for the first three candidates.  Couldn't find any.

Grace and Knight are already board members and George seems well-qualified.

Shepherd, though, is a problem.

She's been quoted many times, in outlets ranging from the NY Times to the AZ Mirror, all denying the result of the 2020 election.

From an NY Times article about Arizona's "fraudit", one that actually found more votes for Biden and fewer for Cheeto, dated 9/24/2021 (emphasis added by me) -

[snip]

In a statement, Mr. Trump on Friday said the review had “uncovered significant and undeniable evidence of FRAUD! Until we know how and why this happened, our Elections will never be secure.”

Many of his fans appeared persuaded.

“I have no doubt now: That election was rigged,” said Lezley Shepherd, 56, one of hundreds of Arizona voters who flocked to the State Capitol on Friday

At least she's not a one trick pony: she hates gay people, too.  And she's not shy about expressing her opinion.  

From a Phoenix New Times article about the Republican quest to criminalize drag shows, written by Elias Weiss, dated 2/4/2023 (emphasis added by me) -

All of those who spoke in favor of the bill [CM: SB1028 in 2023] referenced the Bible. One of them, Leslie Shepherd, asserted that “the LGBTQ movement is using [drag] as a shield to allow inappropriate behavior toward children.”

Well, one positive thing can be said about her candidacy: she's made the choice easy.  There's no way on Earth she gets my vote.

At this point, my only question is that when the election doesn't go her way, will she refute the results and try to deliberate and vote as a board member?

Bottom line: I consider most campaigns for elected office to be little more than extended group job interviews, and you don't hire the person who says that if the hiring process doesn't go their way, it's because the process is rigged.

The Gallego-Lake debate is on TV right now.

Just a guess here, but Lake probably won't win any new voters with her performance.

She seems mean, petty, and ill-informed (she repeatedly referred to IVF [In Vitro Fertilization] as "UVF", which is the acronym for Ulster Volunteer Force or University of Valley Forge).

Gotta love coincidences

And I believe that this actually *is* a coincidence and not me being snarky.

Both former legislator Adam Driggs and his spouse, Leonore Driggs are on the ballot this year and, for different reasons, neither has competition.

Note: My referring to them by their first names and not their titles is not a sign of disrespect.  Both are known as "Judge Driggs" and that would get confusing.  Quickly :) .

Of course, Adam is a judge with Maricopa County Superior Court and subject to a retention election where voters can only vote to retain or not to retain him as a judge.  No opponent.

Leonore is the incumbent Justice of the Peace in the Arcadia Biltmore justice precinct in Phoenix.  There's no opponent on the ballot, nor is there a write-in candidate in the race.

I'll be voting for both of them - I've never heard anything bad about Leonore Driggs, and the Judicial Performance Review Commission has determined that Adam Driggs meets standards.

Yes, AZ is a very large state (~114K square miles) but in terms of politics here, it's much like a small town.

Cheeto's lies about the federal response to Hurricane Helene: does he believe the response was too little or too much?

From CNN -

Fact check: Six days of Trump lies about the Hurricane Helene response

Former President Donald Trump has delivered a barrage of lies and distortions about the federal response to Hurricane Helene.

While various misinformation about the response has spread widely without Trump’s involvement, the Republican presidential nominee has been one of the country’s leading deceivers on the subject. Over a span of six days, in public comments and social media posts, Trump has used his powerful megaphone to endorse or invent false or unsubstantiated claims.

[snip]

Monday: Trump falsely claims Biden hasn’t answered calls from Georgia’s governor

[snip]

Monday: Trump cites baseless ‘reports’ about anti-Republican bias in the North Carolina response

[snip]

Thursday: Trump falsely claims the Biden-Harris response had received ‘universally’ negative reviews

[snip]

Thursday: Trump falsely claims Harris spent ‘all her FEMA money’ on housing illegal migrants

[snip]

Friday: Trump falsely claims $1 billion was ‘stolen’ from FEMA for migrants and has gone ‘missing’

[snip]

Saturday: Trump falsely claims the federal government is only giving $750 to people who lost their homes

[snip]

Saturday: Trump falsely claims there are ‘no helicopters, no rescue’ in North Carolina 

To be fair to Cheeto,, he's got a history of believing that a minimal response to natural disasters is a good response.

From NBCNews, dated 10/8/2017 -

Trump Defends Throwing Paper Towels to Hurricane Survivors in Puerto Rico

President Donald Trump defended throwing paper towels into a crowd of Puerto Ricans at a relief center in the hurricane-ravaged territory earlier this week and lauded federal relief efforts.

“They had these beautiful, soft towels. Very good towels,” Trump told Mike Huckabee during an interview Saturday with Christian network Trinity Broadcasting.

[start sarcasm]

Cheeto would *never* criticize people who are less soulless than him, right?

[/end sarcasm}

R gameplan: When you can't win legitimately, lie, stereotype, and intimidate

There seems to be two basic paths to electoral victory - love and hate.  The path that Republicans have doubled down on isn't "love."

From MSNBC -

An awful lie about Haitian migrants led to this threat against citizens far away

There appears to be a campaign among some conservatives to bully everybody else into political inactivity or silence. appears 

The hateful lie pushed by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating their neighbors’ pets not only endangered those migrants, it also led to an Ohio sheriff three hours away threatening citizens who show support for the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

In a Sept. 13 Facebook post that he later claimed “may have been a little misinterpreted,” Portage County Sheriff Bruce Zuchowski suggested tracking “all the addresses of the people who had [Harris] signs in their yards” so that “when the Illegal human ‘Locust’ (which she supports!) Need places to live...We’ll already have the addresses of their New families...who supported their arrival!”

The hate spewed by Cheeto et. al. has traveled.

From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy -

In a key legislative race, the GOP candidate joked about feeding dogs to Haitians

A GOP candidate whose state Senate race could determine which party controls the legislature embraced a racist lie demonizing a group of legal immigrants, telling a room of gay Republicans last month that Pima County’s stray dogs would be fed to Haitian people if Democrats win elections.

Vince Leach made the comment at a Log Cabin Republican meeting in Pima County on Sept. 22. The former state senator, who defeated Sen. Justine Wadsack in the July GOP primary, made the comment in the midst of a back-and-forth between Republican legislative candidates and the crowd.

“At the end of the day I want every Republican up and down the ballot,” Rep. Cory McGarr, R-Tucson, told the crowd. That includes even insignificant races, and would apply to the job of “dog-catcher,” a position that isn’t elected in Arizona.

[snip]

That’s when Leach entered the conversation. “They’d feed ‘em to the Haitians,” he said.

[snip]

Leach’s comments stem from a conspiracy theory that was initially spread by neo-Nazis in the town of Springfield, Ohio, in an attempt to demonize Haitian immigrants in the community. Since then, the false claim has been spread across the right-wing media ecosystem, where it was embraced by Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, the vice presidential nominee for the Republicans, and later being promoted by GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump. 

In the weeks following the former President’s boosting of the claim, Arizona Republicans have fully embraced it. While appearing on Real America with Dan Ball, Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Kari Lake claimed that “cities wouldn’t want to confirm” the false rumor when responding to Ball claiming that pets were being “barbecued” in Ohio.

[snip]

Arizona Republican state Senate nominee Mark Finchem also shared a meme alluding to cats being eaten by Haitian immigrants, while Flagstaff Republican state Sen. Wendy Rogers posted multiple times on social media amplifying the false claim. 

And the Arizona Republican Party trumpeted the invented story, creating a billboard themed after fast-food restaurant Chick-Fil-A’s ads. 

Legislative schedule - week starting 10/6/2024

Nada, as in there is nothing scheduled at this point. 

Flake endorses Harris: Can you say "I'm gobsmacked"?

From NBCNews -

Former GOP Sen. Jeff Flake endorses Harris for president

Former GOP Sen. Jeff Flake endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president on Sunday, writing in a statement that he wanted to support a presidential candidate who represents “a new generation of leadership based not on grievances of the past, but hope for the future.”

“I’ve served with Kamala in the U.S. Senate. I’ve also served with [Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz] in the House of Representatives. I know them. I know first hand of their fine character and love of country,” the former senator from Arizona added in his statement posted on X.

Gobsmacked is a bit of an old school term, so some readers may not understand it.  Let me explain it.

From Merriam-Webster -

gobsmacked adjective

overwhelmed with wonder, surprise, or shock : astounded

No one will ever call Flake a "liberal Democrat" (except maybe Cheeto and those who embrace criminality is a legitimate political position), so this development is a bit of a surprise.  I expected that, at best, he would *not* endorse in the race.

I was wrong.

Arizona's ballot questions

With early ballots soon coming to a mailbox near you, I thought it was time to do a post like this.

During some election years, the state legislature refers some measures to the ballot that are worth voting for.

This isn't such a year.

Some of the schemes referred to the ballot by the lege are thing they *have* to refer to ballot; some were referred to get around a veto by Governor Hobbs; but all are bad for the people of Arizona.

Every measure referred by the legislature falls into one of two categories:

1. Shameless power grabs by the lege.

2. Shameless espousing of propaganda.

As such, *all* such measures (those referred by the Rs in the legislature) should be opposed by voters.

The list of state-level ballot measures, from the Arizona Secretary of State, is here.

The Citizens Clean Elections Commission has a list here. (select "2024 - General" and "All Counties " and click on "See All".)

Note: neither of these espouses a position on any measure.

The guide from the group Civic Engagement Beyond Voting is here.

Note: this one takes a position on each measure.

The list of analyses of the ballot measures from the Legislative Council's office is here.

Note: officially, they don't take a position on any of the measures.  Practically, Lege Council is a bunch of lawyers who work for the Republicans in the state legislature.  Anything they produce regarding ballot measures (and many other topics) should simply be viewed as partisan garbage.

Note2:  When I write about a similar bill in the other chamber, I only looked for a CR introduced in the same year.

On to the questions themselves -

Prop 133 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2023.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution to allow the legislature to override all municipal laws regarding primary elections.  Started life as HCR2033, sponsored by Austin Smith (a similar measure was introduced in the Senate, SCR1036. It was introduced by Justine Wadsack and Anthony Kern.). NO.

Prop 134 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2023.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution to limit the ability of voters to put questions on the ballot by requiring that a certain number of signatures be gathered from each legislative district.  Started life as SCR1015, proposed by JD Mesnard, Ken Bennett, Steve Kaiser, Sine Kerr Warren Petersen, Timothy Dunn, Travis Grantham, and Ben Toma. (a similar measure was introduced in the House, HCR2041, proposed by David Marshall, Sr., Lupe Diaz, John Gillette, Liz Harris, Laurin Hendrix, Rachel Jones, and Austin Smith

The one that made the ballot was supported by the Republican leaders in both chambers. NO.

Prop 135 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2023.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution to limit the governor's emergency powers.  This looks to be a two-fer - it's both a push-back against Covid mitigation efforts and the election of Democrat Katie Hobbs to the job of governor.  Started life as HCR2039, introduced by Joe Chaplik and Alexander Kolodin (no similar Senate bill).  NO.

Prop 136 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2024.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution to allow anyone to sue to make a voter-proposed ballot go away.  Another attempt to limit the ability of voters to propose laws. Started life as SCR1041, sponsored by JD Mesnard (a similar measure was introduced in the House, HCR2049, proposed by Neal Carter).  NO

Prop 137 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2024.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution to eliminate judicial retention elections.  There's a sneaky clause in it to exempt the anti-choice justices on the Arizona Supreme Court who are up for retention this year (and face a campaign to remove them from the bench) from this year's election.  Started life as SCR1044, proposed by David Gowan and Janae Shamp (no similar House bill).  Hell NO.

Prop 138 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2024.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution to pay tipped employees 25% less than minimum wage.  Supported by industry; opposed by decent human beings.  Started life as SCR1040, sponsored by JD Mesnard (no similar House bill).  Hell NO.

Prop 139 - referred to the ballot by the public.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution.  Would create a constitutional right to an abortion.

Hell YES.  The only measure worthy of support.

Prop 140 - referred to the ballot by the public.  A proposal to amend the state's constitution.  Would create a jungle primary where all candidates would run in a single primary, regardless of partisan affiliation, and twice the number of candidates as offices to be elected would go on to the general election.  Do I believe that AZ's primary needs fixing? Yes.  Do I believe that a jungle primary will do it?  No.

Like ineffective term limits, this is just a lazy way to address a problem.

NO.

Prop 311 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2023.  A proposal to amend the state's laws to create a cash death benefit for the spouses or children of first responders killed in the line of duty.  The measure would pay for the death benefit by imposing an additional fee on people convicted of crimes.  It also characterizes police officers/sheriff's deputies/etc. as "first responders".  Started life as SCR1006, proposed by David Gowan (a similar measure was introduced in the House, HCR2025, proposed by Kevin Payne).  As defendants convicted of crimes already have many fees imposed on them and firefighters/EMTs/etc. aren't known for killing unarmed civilians and don't deserve to be equated to police officers of any sort, NO.

Prop 312 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2024.  A proposal to amend the state's laws to create an ability of people with homes to apply for a property tax refunds if they feel that their municipalities don't do enough to hide homeless people.  Started life as HCR2023, proposed by Ben Toma (a similar measure was introduced in the Senate, SCR1006, proposed by veritable rogues' gallery of sponsors - Warren Petersen, Shawnna Bolick, Frank Carroll, John Kavanagh, Sine Kerr, Wendy Rogers, TJ Shope, and Justine Wadsack).  NO.

Prop 313 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2024.  A proposal to amend the state's laws to require that someone convicted of child sex trafficking receive a punishment of life in prison without the possibility of parole.  Started life as SCR1021, sponsored by many members - Bolick, Bennett, Borrelli, Carroll, Farnsworth, Gowan, Hoffman, Kavanagh, Kern, Kerr, Mesnard, Petersen, Rogers, Shamp, Shope, Wadsack, Biasiucci, Bliss, Carbone, Carter, Chaplik, Cook, Diaz, Dunn, Gillette, Grantham, Gress, Griffin, Heap, Hendrix, Jones, Livingston, Marshall, Martinez, McGarr, Montenegro, Nguyen, Parker B, Parker J, Payne, Peña, Pingerelli, Smith, Toma, Willoughby, and Wilmeth (a similar measure was introduced in the House, HCR2042, proposed by Bliss, Biasiucci, Carbone, Carter, Chaplik, Cook, Diaz, Dunn, Gillette, Grantham, Gress, Griffin, Heap, Hendrix, Jones, Livingston, Marshall, Martinez, McGarr, Montenegro, Nguyen, Parker B, Parker J, Payne, Peña, Pingerelli, Smith, Toma, Willoughby, and Wilmeth).  As the legislature thinks this is a good idea, so NO.

Note3: I had to use copy-and-paste for lists this long.

Prop 314 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2024.  A proposal to amend the state's laws to enshrine bigotry.  If passed by the voters, it would make undocumented immigration into the U.S. a locally-enforced crime.  There are other clauses in the measure, but all are about the R mantra of "fear the other".  Started life as HCR2060, proposed by Ben Toma (no similar Senate bill).  Oh, Hell NO.

Prop 315 - referred to the ballot by the legislature in 2024.  A proposal to amend the state's laws to all but eliminate rulemaking by state agencies. Would mandate that the legislature approve any rule created by a state agency that would increase regulatory costs by $500K over five years.  Started life as SCR1012, proposed by Anthony Kern, Jake Hoffman, Wendy Rogers, Justine Wadsack, Laurin Hendrix, Rachel Jones, and Alexander Kolodin (a similar measure was introduced in the House, HCR2052, proposed by Cory McGarr, John Gillette, Gail Griffin, Justin Heap, Rachel Jones, Alexander Kolodin, Barbara Parker, and Austin Smith).  NO.

Legislative schedule - week starting 9/29/2024

Nada, as in there is nothing scheduled at this point. 

Clay Higgins' comments about Haitian immigrants were utterly bigoted and vile...but he's right about one thing.

Oh, not the comments themselves, which I've already said are utterly bigoted and vile, but something else he said while (fruitlessly) attempting to defend the comments.

From NPR -

Louisiana Rep. Clay Higgins walks back racist comments about Haitians after backlash

Louisiana Rep. Clay Higgins on Thursday retracted comments he made about Haitian immigrants in a now-deleted social media post.

"You never want to intentionally hurt someone’s feelings, and that post was intended for Haitian gangs, you understand?” Higgins, a Republican, told reporters. "The unintended impact that was expressed very sincerely from one of my colleagues very graciously, that touched me as a gentleman.”

Well, one thing's clear - he's got the whole "non-apology apology" thing down pat.

He was right about one thing, though he didn't go far enough. 

From later in the same article -

Asked about his comments on CNN later Wednesday, Higgins defended the tweet.

“It’s all true,” Higgins said, according to the news organization. “I can put up another controversial post tomorrow if you want me to. I mean, we do have freedom of speech. I’ll say what I want.”

He *does* have the right to say what he wants.

The thing is, the rest of us can evaluate his personal character based on what he says.

We have.

FBI crime stats are out, and crime is down. So whatever will Rs campaign on?

Oh, who am I trying to kid?  They're pretty notorious  - when the facts don't agree with their preferred talking points, they simply ignore the facts.

From ABCNews -

Murders down 11.6% in US as crime remains key election issue

Murders in the United States were down 11.6% in 2023, according to statistics released by the FBI Monday morning.

The murder rate went down from 6.2 per 100,000 people in 2022 to 5.7 per 100,000 people in 2023.

From the FBI's press release on the topic -

FBI Releases 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics

The FBI released detailed data on over 14 million criminal offenses for 2023 reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by participating law enforcement agencies. More than 16,000 state, county, city, university and college, and tribal agencies, covering a combined population of 94.3% inhabitants, submitted data to the UCR Program through the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Summary Reporting System.

The FBI’s crime statistics estimates, based on reported data for 2023, show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates:  

• Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.  
• In 2023, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 9.4% decrease.  
• Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 2.8% in 2023. 
• Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3% nationally. 

•  

The FBI's Crime Data Explorer is here.

AZDPS' stats are here.

A couple of AZ-specific items, courtesy the FBI -

I expect Cheeto, Kari Lake, et. al to keep running ads that can be summed up as "Fear this!" and "Only I can fix what you fear!"

Arizona's public schools are leading the way...in the race to the bottom

Earlier this week, the magazine Consumer Affairs published a study that ranked public education systems in each state, and Arizona came in dead last.

From AZFamily, written by staff and Sarah Robinson, dated 9/16 -

Report ranks Arizona worst in nation for public education

A new analysis claims that Arizona ranks the worst in the nation for public education, citing examples like average ACT scores, graduation rates, overall funding and higher education quality.

ConsumerAffairs, a consumer research firm and customer review platform, analyzed data from all 50 states and found that the Grand Canyon State falls short of delivering quality education.

Tom Horne, Arizona's Superintendent of Public Instruction, pooh-poohed the results.

From the same story -

“We are last in the country, I think, in our funding per pupil,” Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne said.

[snip]

Arizona also has the fifth-lowest high school graduation rate.

Horne questioned the use of graduation rates as a key metric.

“You can increase your graduation rate just by lowering your standards. And you would be graduating kids who can’t read,” he said.

[snip]

“I don’t think this is an accurate study. I think some of the aspects are,” he said

From the study-

Of course, the low ranking for public ed didn't stop Horne from running ads that shamelessly tout school vouchers to take funding from public schools and give it to private schools.