Laura Pastor drops out of CD3 race

From AZ Family -

Phoenix councilwoman Laura Pastor drops out of congressional race

One of the leading Democratic names eyed to replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego has dropped out of the race. Gallego is now vying to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat.

On Friday, Phoenix councilwoman Laura Pastor announced that she withdrew her name from a lengthy list of contenders, citing health reasons.

This story demonstrates two things:

1. There's a dire need for editors.  Even the two paragraphs/three sentences that I've quoted are poorly written.

"...[V]ying to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat"?  Really??  That made it by someone?

2.  It's early.  People can still drop out of or enter races.

Pastor's withdrawal leaves Yassamin Ansari, another member of the Phoenix City Council, and Raquel Teran, a former member of the Arizona Legislature and a former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, as the big "names" currently in the race.

Ugh.

Chalk one up for the politics of demonization.  A big one...

Last night was definitely ugly.

Many good people, and at least one great one, lost their jobs last night.

The results page on the AZ Secretary of State's website is here.

First, the genuinely ugly - Harry Mitchell, the icon of public service, lost the CD5 race to real estate vulture David Schweikert.  Apparently, the majority of voters in CD5 have decided that they don't want a public servant to represent them in Congress, instead giving their nod to a public predator (geez, can ya tell I'm still pissed over this one? ).

The entire Schweikert campaign platform can be summed up thusly:  Obamacare!

Seriously, that was it. 

I was on sign detail for one of the down ballot candidates here, and every polling place had at least 5 - 8 little signs that had one word on them - "Obamacare."  Sometimes they were placed at random, sometimes they were placed next to Mitchell signs, and at least once, place *in* a Mitchell sign.

More on this race in the next few days, after I decompress.

...There was lots of bad (some really bad) on Tuesday.

- The Rs swept the statewide races.  Some of the D losses were expected, but to elect two people who have long records of being crooks to positions of great public trust like Attorney General and Treasurer?

As noted above, last night was a triumph of the politics of demonization, but "willful ignorance" also ran wild in Arizona on Tuesday.

- The Rs also increased their majority in the legislature, mostly by knocking off a number of Democratic women.

Former State Representative Jackie Thrasher (LD10) lost her bid to return to the House, down by almost 3000 votes.

State Representative Rae Waters (LD20) is down 1400 votes in her reelection bid.

State Senator Rebecca Rios (LD23)  is down almost 5000 votes her race.

State Representative Barbara McGuire (LD23) is down almost 7000 votes.

State Senator Amanda Aguirre (LD24) is down more than 3000 votes in her race.

State Representative Pat Fleming (LD25) is down more than 3000 votes.

State Representative Nancy Young Wright (LD26) is down slightly less than 900 votes in her race.

In keeping with the Rs' anti-woman theme, Dirty Scottsdale writer and "chip off the ol' potatoe" Ben Quayle won the CD3 seat being vacated by John Shadegg.  His opponent ran as a Republican dressed up in a Democrat's clothing.  Turns out that didn't inspire the D base to turn out.  Who knew?

The politics of demonization was effective on a number of ballot propositions, too.

Prop 106 (anti-healthcare reform), Prop 107 (anti-affirmative action), and Prop 113 (anti-union) were all approved by the voters.

...There were a few nuggets of good in yesterday's carnage.  OK, less "good" than "not horrificly bad" -

 - Prop 301 (ending and sweeping the monies from the Land Conservation Fund) and Prop 302 (ending First Things First, the early childhood education program that was created by the voters in a previous election) have been turned away by the voters.  The Rs in the lege will use this as a rationalization to further gut education and social infrastructure programs in the name of "balancing the budget," but they were going to that anyway.  They just would have found a different excuse if the Props had passed.

- In out-of-state results that may have a direct impact on Arizona, Kris Kobach, the nativist lawyer who wrote SB1070 for fellow traveller Russell Pearce, won his election as Secretary of State in Kansas.  He'll be overseeing elections there.  He ran on a anti-immigrant platform, and has pledged to work to minimize the number of immigrants voting there.  God help Kansas.  On the plus side, we can always hope that his duties/schemes in KS serve to distract him from Arizona.

- Also turned away were R challenges to U.S. Reps. Gabrielle Giffords (CD8) and Raul Grijalva (CD7) (however, CD8 remains close, so there is a chance that one will change, though Giffords is ahead by approximately 2000 votes as of this writing.)

- In my home LD, District 17, State Rep. David Schapira has fended off what had appeared to be a strong challenger for the LD17 Senate seat.  Wendy Rogers was touted as the kind of conservative who could win in a Democratic-leaning swing district.  Turns out she was actually just a polished version of her ticketmate, Don Hawker.  House candidate Hawker was the epitome of the "single issue" candidate, literally blaming all that ails Arizona (and the country) on abortion.

Both were wrong for the community, wrong for the district, and wrong for the state, and voters in D17 saw that.  One of the advantages of living in a district with a lot of university professors and students in it.

- In some of the down ballot races, there was some good news -

Retiring State Senator Meg Burton Cahill defeated a retired barber for the Justice of the Peace spot in the University Lakes Justice Precinct.  Some ugly robocalls funded by the Arizona Multihousing Association failed to defeat the popular Tempean.

Dana Saar of Fountain Hills defeated embarrassment Jerry Walker of Mesa for Walker's seat on the Governing Board of the Maricopa County Community College District.  Walker has shamed his constituents and the District a number of times with his thuggish behavior.  Saar taking the seat will help restore the credibility of this embattled board.


...The one spark of hope, in Arizona and across the nation, that I can find from yesterday's results (and I had to dig deep to find this one) -

In 1994, that national R wave occurred two years *after* redistricting took place.  

In 2010, the wave took place two years *before* redistricting.  The Rs, especially the tea baggers, won't have time to entrench themselves before having to run in radically different districts in 2012.

More later, on CD5 and some of the local races and ballot questions...

Jon Hulburd on KNXV-TV

Hulburd is the Democratic nominee in the Third Congression District, squaring off against Ben "Brock Landers" Quayle in the contest to replace the retiring John Shadegg.



Later...

Arizona Republic editorial board to its readers: Arizona may be in lousy shape, but you should vote for the status quo

Liberals like to claim that the Arizona Republic is a "conservative" paper, but it's not. (Though to be fair, many of them remember the not-so-distant days when the Rep was officially named the "Arizona Republican" or less officially served as the press release outlet for the Arizona Republican Party.)

Conservatives like to claim that the Rep is a "liberal" paper, but it isn't.  (It just isn't a mouthpiece for the "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" wing of the AZGOP.)

Instead, the Arizona Republic is a "corporate" paper, dedicated to defending corporate profit margins.  Since most corporations operate in such a way as to derive the maximum profit from the political status quo, the Republic has become a staunch defender of that status quo.

Their latest list of election endorsements clearly illustrate this tendency.

- They passed over Terry Goddard in giving their endorsement in the race for governor to Jan Brewer.  They called Goddard an "articulate, dedicated servant of the people of this state" yet gave the nod to Brewer, citing her ability to "handle the legislature" (apparently, the Rep's editorial board slept through all of 2009) and her disbanding of the state's Department of Commerce in favor of a meaningless (and authority-less) "Commerce Authority."  What they also liked was her support for "enhancing prospects for job creation" - better known as blanket tax cuts directed to corporations.

- They ignored Rodney Glassman (literally!  He wasn't even mentioned in the article!) in giving their endorsement for U.S. Senate to John McCain.  In the opinion piece, they cited "McCain's role in all those great national and world debates," such as the debates over the war in Iraq and campaign finance reform.  What they didn't cite were McCain's accomplishments for Arizona.  They couldn't cite those accomplishments, because there aren't any.  This particular endorsement also isn't a surprise, even aside from its "status quo" characteristics - the Rep's editorial board has been in the McCain family pocket for decades (is Dan Nowicki the Republic's reporter who is embedded with McCain's staff, or is he the McCain staffer embedded with the Republic?  Either way, the effect, and the final product, is the same...)

- The Rep's endorsement of Ann Kirkpatrick in the CD1 race also serves to illustrate the Rep's "status quo" bias - she's an incumbent, and while a Democrat, she's a conservative one who thoroughly supports Big Business.  Note: While I too support and recommend voting for her, it's because she is the better candidate, not a great candidate.

- The logic the Rep's editorial board used when passing over Penny Kotterman when endorsing John Huppenthal for State Superintendent of Public Instruction astounds me, even when allowing for their "status quo" bias.  They cite his 18 years of legislative experience focusing on education issues and then follow it up with this quote -

We believe the sort of reform advocated by John Huppenthal is best for improving Arizona's often dismal comparative standing on the crucial questions of how best to improve schools.

Ummm...do they understand that Huppenthal and the "reforms" pimped by him are some of the major reasons for Arizona's "dismal comparative standing" on most education-related metrics?  And that his experience in the lege has included years of trying to slowly destroy public education in Arizona?

Their endorsement is as sensible as a doctor sitting down with a patient who has been diagnosed with lung cancer after decades of smoking and suggesting that the patient could cure the cancer by smoking more cigarettes.

- In a bit of a surprise, the Rep's editorial board endorsed Felecia Rotellini over Tom Horne for Attorney General.  They complimented her as "smart and unflappable," which is very true, but Tom Horne is a current office holder and an establishment Republican.  This would seem to disprove my "status quo bias" position, until one remembers that, like Rotellini, Terry Goddard, the current Attorney General, is smart, unflappable, and a Democrat. 

- However, the Rep did spring one big surprise on voters, and not in a good way.  They twisted themselves like a pretzel to find a way to ignore Jon Hulburd and give their CD3 endorsement to Ben Quayle.

First, they opened up their piece with -

Ben Quayle, a Republican, may be the best-known congressional candidate in the country who isn't a member of the "tea party." That shouldn't matter to voters in District 3, which stretches from north-central Phoenix to New River. They don't need a celebrity. They need the best representative they can elect.

In the next paragraph, they follow that up with -

If this were a job interview, Democrat Jon Hulburd would have the large advantage. He rose to become a partner at Fennemore Craig, one of Phoenix's top law firms. He left to start an import business. He has career and community accomplishments that Quayle can't match.

So naturally, after pointing out Quayle's celebrity status and saying that CD3 doesn't need a celebrity in Congress, and Hulburd's vastly superior resume and qualifications, they gave their endorsement to Quayle -

But elections aren't just about resumes. They're about ideas. And on that score, Quayle is the better candidate to succeed John Shadegg. Quayle is well-versed in the issues. He speaks with passion and conviction.

So, the Rep soft-pedals Quayle's lack of qualifications for any elected office, much less a seat in Congress, and completely ignores his pre-candidacy career as a writer for the website Dirty Scottsdale, under the porn-riffic nom de plume "Brock Landers."

Could the Quayle family's previous ownership of the Republic have influenced the endorsement?  Nahhhh, couldn't be...

The headline for the Rep's endorsement was "Ben Quayle offers candor, conviction."

Given that Quayle's previous "candor" indicated a deep disrespect for women and could lead to convictions of the criminal variety if he becomes part of the free-for-all social environment in D.C.'s political subculture, instead of being a surprise, perhaps the Rep's endorsement of his [possible] ascension to Congress would be in perfect keeping with their desire to maintain the status quo.

Less than a week ago, the Republic actually brought themselves some credit with their list of endorsements for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District - the candidates they endorsed were intelligent, educated, experienced, and highly-qualified for the job.

Apparently, however, those qualities are desirable only in candidates for lower-profile (though extremely important) offices. 

I may agree with some of the Rep's coming endorsements, but where I will support the candidates who are better for Arizona, they'll be supporting the candidates who they see as most protective of their preferred status quo.

Ben Quayle's Grueling Daily Campaign Schedule

I don't normally publish press releases verbatim, and Tedski at Rum, Romanism, Rebellion already has this one up, but it made me laugh. 

And that makes it worth a post of its own. 

From an ADP press release, Ben Quayle's daily schedule -

Ben Quayle - Daily Campaign Schedule


10:00 – 10:30 AM: Wake-up, get ready
Notes: Out of Frosted Flakes, order the maid to go buy more -- this time with a prize!

10:30 – 11:00 AM: Web surfing time
Notes: Use new password Nik gave me to get around Dad’s cybersecurity filters

11:00 – 11:15 AM: Fundraising meeting with Dad
Reminder: Don’t ask questions. Dad gets upset.

11:15 -11:30 AM: Check schedule to see if I have time to debate
Notes: I’m really very busy

11:30 AM – 12:30 PM: Gym
Reminder: Upper body, focus on abs

12:30 – 1:00 PM: Shower
Reminder: Wear the power suit that has the shoulder pads. Gotta look grown-up.

1:00 – 2:00 PM: Lunch – Stingray Sushi
Notes: Trainer says soy paper has fewer carbs

2:00 – 2:05 PM: Check schedule to see if I have time to debate
Notes: It still feels like I’m way busy

2:05 – 2:30 PM: Private tutoring session (Arizona 101)
Reminder: Ask tutor about those cities north and west of Scottsdale.

2:30 – 2:45 PM: Tynwald Capital
Reminder: Make sure Dad’s deposit into company went through so I can collect paycheck

3:00 – 4:00 PM: Play with Louie the Dog. My favorite campaign expenditure!

4:00 – 4:30 PM: Private tutoring session (Congress 101)
Reminder: Ask tutor about D.C. club scene. It better not be lame!

4:30 -5:00 PM: Check in with Dad on fundraising
Reminder: Don’t tell Dad I plan to go out tonight

5:00 – 5:02 PM: Check schedule to see if I have time to debate
Notes: Dude, where does the time go?

5:15 – 6:15 PM: Nap

6:30 – 8:00 PM: Invite bros over to party (keep it cool. no cops)
Notes: Show them new drinking game I invented. Cross between Flip Cup and Beer Pong – Super Beer Flip Cup Pong!

8:00 – 9:30 PM: Dinner at Barcelona

10:00 – 11:30 PM: Pre-club partying
Notes: Don't post any photos to Facebook this time!

11:30 PM – 2:00 AM: Hit the Scottsdale clubs
Notes: Dad’s folks following me, can’t let them catch me out like last time. Call for black Town Car to drive me home.

2:30 AM: Maid tucks me in
Notes: Tomorrow, I’ll think some more about debating. LOL!!!

There's nothing I can add.  I'm a wiseass, but this one is out-of-my-class funny.  Probably because it's closer to the truth than the Quayle camp would care to admit...

Primary Day is here: prediction time

Greg at Espresso Pundit went all in with his predictions, and Donna at Democratic Diva steadfastly and with dignity declined to make any predictions to avoid undermining/offending the ultimate winners in the Democratic primaries.

While I am not the "pundit" that Patterson is, neither am I as dignified as Donna (hey, I'm a Red Sox fan, and *you* try shouting "Yankees Suck!!" while maintaining proper decorum :) ).  As such, I'm going to make my own predictions.

Disclaimer:  My predictions are not an indication of a preference in Democratic primary races; in fact, I'll be predicting a winner who is other than the candidate I voted for in a couple of the races.  In addition, my predictions in Republican races are based on very distant observations, not on any knowledge of how R primary voters think.

In other words, no wagering allowed on any of this.  :)


On to the fearless predictions...

R Senate - McCain over Hayworth easily.  It may not be the blowout that it should be, but it won't be that close.

D Senate - This one is tough.  I'll go with Parraz over Glassman in a very close race.  The info about Glassman's campaign, however, may have come out too late to affect the outcome since early ballots were sent out, and returned, weeks before the info came to light.

R CD5 - Schweikert.  Far from a perfect candidate but he's run a solid primary campaign.  I think the big question is if Ward will hold on to second.  Look for Bitter Smith or Salvino to possibly sneak into the silver medal position.

R Maricopa County Attorney - Should be Romley in a cakewalk, but if Patterson is correct about this being a low turnout election (and I think he is), Montgomery could make it interesting.

R CD3 - Got no clue, other than it won't be Quayle.  Even R primary voters want more substance in a candidate.

R AG - Horne in a close one.  Thomas is just too damaged by his professional and ethical missteps.

D AG - Just a "feeling", but Rotellini seems to have the support of most of the Ds that I know.  Having said that, any of the three Ds running (Rotellini, Lujan, Rabago) would make a better AG than either Horne or Thomas.  (Of course, so would I, and my legal experience consists of serving as a juror in a Scottsdale shoplifting case...but I digress.  :) )

R Superintendent of Public Instruction - Huppenthal.  In any other state he'd have been relegated to the political scrap heap years ago, but in AZ, he's a Republican hero.  With the name recognition to go with it among R primary voters.

D Superintendent of Public Instruction - No clue, not even a "feeling".  Both Kotterman and Williams are dedicated educators and well-qualified for the position.  I just have no idea who is going to win the D nod.

D Secretary of State - Wercinski, though with Deschene's outside-of-Maricopa County contacts, he could make this one a barn burner.

R CD1, CD8, Treasurer - Don't know, don't care.  Kirkpatrick, Giffords, and Cherny will be the best choices in November, no matter who the Rs nominate in August.

R Governor (just for kicks) - Brewer.  Includimg me, there are maybe 10 people in AZ who realize that Jette is an intelligent, thoughtful candidate.  Everybody else's loss.  I wouldn't vote for him, but AZ needs more candidates like him who are less chained to an absolutist ideology and more concerned with finding real-world solutions to real-world problems.

CQPolitics has coverage here; FiveThirtyEight.com coverage here.

FEC Reports - Congressional primary races

Some of these are eye-opening...

All info courtesy the website of the Federal Election Commission, reporting period 7/1/2010 thru 8/4/2010 (three weeks before the primary)...

In order of interest to me (call it "blogger's privilege" or something :) ) -

CD5

Schweikert: $225529.45 cash on hand, raised slightly less than $36K during the period, spent over $244K.  Debt of $500K (to himself).

Ward: $172944.21 on hand, raised $28657, spent $264K, $315548.83 in debt.

Bitter Smith: $48454.60 on hand, raised less than $20K, spent slightly less than $83K, $81329.02 debt.

Salvino: $27.6K on hand, raised less than $10K, spent more than $91K, debt of $210958.04.

Spinks: $41.82 cash on hand (not "41.82K" but forty-one dollars and eighty-two cents), raised $170, spent $557, no debt.

Gentry:  I couldn't find a report for the most recent reporting period.

Analysis*: It isn't over per se, but Salvino, Spinks and Gentry are toast, and Bitter Smith is on life support.  Ward has a shot, but Schweikert seems to think he has it wrapped up, and is coasting a little, ticking off supporters of some of the other candidates.

These folks seem to be Republican B-teamers - perennial wannabes looking for one last shot at glory or carpetbaggers looking for a district where they can buy a nomination.  Not talking smack here, one of these folks could move up to A-team status (Bitter Smith and Schweikert have held offices before, and Ward has access to cash), but they've got it to prove.


CD3

Crump: Less than $7300 on hand, raised $11456, spent slightly over $17K.  No debt.

Gorman: Less than $26K on hand, raised $14K, spent $5371.  No debt.

Morris: Slightly more than $40K on hand, raised $16K, spent $74K, $50K debt.

Moak: $121K on hand, raised a little more than $15K, spent more than $577K.  Debt of more than $592K ($300K in this period alone).

Parker: $63K on hand, raised $36K, spent $123K, debt of $26431.60.

Quayle: $429K on hand, raised $218K, spent $473K, $1223 debt.

Waring: $29.5K on hand, raised $17K, spent $81K, debt of $41K.

Winkler: $24.5K on hand, raised $5225, spent $8253, no debt.

I cannot find reports for the other candidates (Branch, Hull).

Analysis*: Based on the money numbers, the race is between Quayle (tapping Daddy's friends for cash) and Moak (placing a big bet on his own candidacy), but Parker, Waring, Gorman, and Morris still have a heartbeat.  In a free-for-all like this one, money for mailers and ad buys may not mean as much as an effective street-level GOTV machine.  Crump, Winkler, Branch, and Hull are done.  Quayle should be just as done after his recent gaffes, but Daddy's money and name may purchase some short memories among GOP primary voters.

Probably the strongest set of candidates that the GOP has fielded this year (3 former legislators, 2 former mayors, 1 son of a former USVP, a well-funded businessman, and Morris, who is moderate, female, intelligent, articulate, attractive, Jewish, and Cuban.  In Florida, they'd have already cancelled the election and administered the oath of office to her, but in AZ she'll be lucky to break out of single digits), but they are slicing each other to ribbons and whittling down the funds that donors will have available in the general election.  Look for lots of independent expenditures from GOP-friendly groups as they try to retain this seat in the general.


CD8

Paton: almost $187K on hand, raised $46K, spent $146K, debt of slightly less than $13K.

Kelly: almost $79K on hand, raised $78K, spent $159K, no debt.

The other candidates have dropped out or haven't filed reports that I can find.

Analysis*:  This race could be the one to watch - Paton is the candidate of the GOP "establishment" and may be the better general election candidate, but Kelly has enough Tea Party support to pull the upset, and enough cash to make a last minute push.


CD7

McClung: $15K on hand, raised slightly less than $11K, spent slightly less than $18K, debt of $2300.

Myers: more than $23K on hand, raised $1820, spent $56K, debt of more than $95K.

I couldn't find reports for the other candidates. 

Analysis*: The top GOP candidates to unseat Raul Grijalva raised less than $13K between them.  Candidates who are toast in other districts were able to raise more.  Any other questions? 


CD1

Bowers: A little more than $10K on hand, raised $11K, spent a little less than $15K, no debt.

Gosar: Nearly $41K on hand, raised slightly less than $40K, spent $130K, no debt.

Hay: More than $116K on hand, raised $32K, spent $60K, debt of $100K.

Jensen: Reporting $1195 cash on hand on the summary page, but also reports $1595 raised and $1595 spent.  Hand-written reports, wife or other relative as treasurer.  'Nuff said.

Mehta: Less than $2600 on hand, raised $7300, spent $25K, debt of slight less than $11K.

I could not locate reports for the other candidates.

Analysis*: Hay's got the cash, Gosar seems to have the momentum.  Hay may be holding on to the cash to pay down her debt after the primary.  If the CD5 Rs are B-teamers, these folks are C- and D- teamers.


CD4

Contreras: $2500 on hand, raised $6800, spent $4300, $25K in debt.

Penalosa hasn't filed a report that I could find, but his July report showed numbers in line with Contreras'.

Analysis*: Either one could win the R nomination, though considering that incumbent Ed Pastor has $1.5 million on hand, I'm not sure that qualifies as a good thing for whichever one wins the nod. 


CD2

Black reports $69 (not $69000 or even $6900, but *$69.00* cash on hand in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Franks (cash on hand of $69K).


CD6

Smith reports cash on hand of $5593 in his quest to unseat fellow Republican Flake (almost $800K on hand).

Analysis*: Both Franks and Flake face primary challenges from the right, of all places, but other than the hardcore Tea Party types, no one can say (with a straight face, anyway) that Franks and Flake are "too liberal" to be "good" Republicans.  The lack of financial support for the upstarts indicates that both are safe from serious intra-GOP challenges.

Key:  "Analysis*" equals "opportunity to let loose a little snark."

Note: The candidates who didn't file reports that I could locate are all long shots anyway, so I'm not worrying about them.  If one of them pulls out a primary victory, I'll eat my computer**.

** = Not really.  I will admit to making a mistake, however.  Call it "eating crow instead of a computer."

Note2: I didn't really cover the Democratic races because there aren't any primary races for Congressional seats.

Short Attention Span Musing

Just a few quick hits for a Saturday...

...Just how crazy/bad does a Republican have to be for Russell Pearce not to endorse him?  I don't know, but apparently Jack Harper does.

...Ben Quayle, one of the gaggle of R candidates jockeying for a shot at replacing Congresman John Shadegg in CD3, received a lot of press coverage this week.  And contrary to the popular saw, not all publicity is good publicity.

First, he denied, then admitted, to writing for a "racy" website, TheDirty.com (at the time, it was called "TheDirtyScottsdale.com").

Then he gained notoriety for airing what has to be the most content-free TV spot of the election cycle wherein he labelled Barack Obama as the "worst President in history."  At no point did he ever talk about CD3 or its needs...or why he would be the best one to serve those needs.

Of course, considering that he recently sent out a "awww, isn't he a great family man?!?" mailer showing him with his kids...only he doesn't have kids, this weeks screwups should have been expected.  Still, with his family name recognition and the vast amount of money from out-of-state contributors that he has access to, he may still pull of winning the R nomination in CD3.

No matter which of the many Rs running in CD3, Democrat Jon Hulburd stands firmly in their way.

...The Parraz campaign is touting some poll numbers in the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.  Their numbers show them behind Rodney Glassman by 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.  Those numbers are consistent with other polls, so that is not news.  What is interesting is the data that Latino voters are going for Parraz by a 6 or 7 to 1 margin.  And that Latino turnout is up.

Now, campaigns only release internal polling numbers when they show (or can be spun to show) their candidates' strength, so take the release with a grain of salt.

However, if it is true, especially the part about Latino turnout increasing, it shows a possible path out of the electoral woods for AZ Democrats. 

The Republicans' whole-hearted embrace of the nativist ideals of Russell Pearce and Jan Brewer to gain support in primary races could come to backfire on them in November.

Here's hoping....

...Finally, while the last of the three escapees from one of Arizona's privately-operated prisons is still on the loose (maybe in Montana, though by now he and his cousin/fiancee/drug mule for a white supremacist gang could be anywhere) and Terry Goddard, Arizona's Attorney General and a candidate for governor, has called for reviewing and revamping prison security in AZ, Governor Jan Brewer has been out picnicking "campaigning", with nary a word about private prisons, her administration's ties to private prison operators, or even hearings to look into the failure of the private prisons to protect the public from murderers.

Just another Saturday roundup in the desert...

Pam Gorman: the latest R candidate to bring ridicule upon Arizona

Former state senator Pam Gorman is one of the gaggle* of Republicans candidates to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg in AZCD3.

*"gaggle" = 10 ballot-qualified candidates, including a couple that nobody but their mothers have heard of before

Apparently, she is worried about getting lost in the clutter of the CD3 campaign (early ballots come out in less than a month!).  So worried, in fact, that she has put up an ad that is sure to garner some attention for her candidacy.

And if "garnering attention" was her primary goal for the spot, it has been successful.

The pundits on MSNBC have been mocking it all day today.



Normally, I am loathe to publicize an R candidate's ads, *any* R candidate's, but in this case, I'll happily make an exception.

AZ Republic coverage here; Feathered Bastard coverage in the Phoenix New Times here; coverage from AZBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona here.

BTW - in other "Republicans inviting ridicule" news, the AZRep's Political Insider has the scoop on a new website that shines a light on some of the more perceptive utterances of one of Arizona's most erudite legislators, State Senator Sylvia Allen.

The site Earth to Sylvia Allen has debuted, reminding visitors of gems like

"The Earth's been here 6,000 years, long before anybody had environmental laws, and it hasn't been done away with."

 

“Our little creeks and watersheds were full because the forest was not filled with all these trees… And so the trees are taking our water.” 6/15/09 Senate Natural Resources, Infrastructures and Public Debt

“The wealthy have done a lot for us. But what are we doing for the wealthy? We need to be giving back, too.” 7/30/10 Senate Appropriations – Special Session

That last quote is from 2009, not 2010, but I actually saw her spout that one.

Luckily, I have a beard, otherwise, but jaw would have been severely scraped because it hit the floor so hard.  :)

Dark Clouds, Silver Linings, and Lessons

The results of Tuesday's elections across the country offer a silver lining of hope in what has long been considered to be a dark year for Democrats. And nowhere is that silver lining brighter than in Arizona.

To whit:

- Dark cloud: Libertarian (dressed in Republican clothing) Rand Paul wins the R nomination for Senate in Kentucky.

- Silver lining: He's already imploding, coming out against the Civil Rights Act...before backing off (sort of). Guess he was against the Act before he was for it.

- Silver lining2 - Paul received 206,960 votes in the R primary; Daniel Mongiardo, the 2nd place Democrat in the D primary, received 225,159. There are almost 600K more Ds than Rs in Kentucky. They are Ds of a conservative bent (hence the two Rs currently representing KY in the U.S. Senate) but they won't put up with the public embarrassment that Paul is threatening to become.

- Lesson: The most "whatever" candidate in a party's primary may not be that party's *best* candidate. Not making a prediction here (yet), but despite the Tea Party's glee over Paul's nomination, winning the nomination isn't the same as winning the office. This race is far from over. The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in KY, Jack Conway, is in a solid position entering the general election campaign.


- (Not so) Dark cloud: Democrat Mark Critz won the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District. The win keeps the Ds' perfect record in head-to-head special elections held since the 2008 election intact and allows them to retain the seat held by the late Jack Murtha for the better part of four decades.

- Silver lining: Critz may have shown the way to beat the Rs' standard campaign platform of running against D.C., Nancy Pelosi, and those durn "liberal" Democrats, and it's the most basic lesson in politics - all politics is local. The R in the race, Tim Burns, ran as a generic national Republican/Club for Growth candidate, campaigning against Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Critz stumped the western PA district and talked about jobs.

Critz won.

- Lesson: No matter if the pundits think that the trends in a given election cycle dramatically favor one party over another (as they think that 2010 favors Rs over Ds), any single race is usually won by the candidate who runs the better, more district-focused, campaign.


- Dark cloud: Republicans all over Arizona are grasping for the chance to go Congress.

- Silver lining: Their primaries have become cattle call, "I'm more conservative than thou" slugfests.

- - In the race for U.S. Senate, former radio gabber JD Hayworth is looking to unseat fellow Republican John McCain, pulling the heretofore not-exactly-liberal McCain into Hayworth's (and the Tea Party's) nativist, anti-government ideological territory.

All the while, Democrat Rodney Glassman is turning in his sigs, opening his Phoenix headquarters, and reaching out to *all* Arizona voters, not just the nativists.

- - In CD5, Republican perennial candidates Susan Bitter Smith and David Schweikert have been joined by electoral newcomers Jim Ward and Chris Salvino in their race to unseat Democratic incumbent and local icon Harry Mitchell. The Rs are running anti-immigrant/anti-Obama campaigns (Salvino's signs even start with "Stop Obama", not his name). Mitchell is working for his district, reining in Congressional pay, and protecting America's veterans.

-- In the CD3 battle royal to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg, there are at least a dozen open committees on the Republican side (Moak, Waring, Winkler, and Quayle have already filed their signatures) and they're all running as the "real" conservative in the race. They've been whipsawing between toeing the nativist line and nuzzling the corporate teat.

All the while, Jon Hulburd, the only Democrat in the race already in general election mode, talking to voters in the district and honing his message, starting with his number one issue, jobs.

-- In CD8, at least three Republicans, including SB1070 and payday loan industry supporter Jonathan Paton, are duking it out for a chance to face incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson). Paton, the presumed R nominee, has been spending time in Phoenix, far from his district, holding a $1000 per person fundraiser at an Arizona Diamondbacks game; Giffords countered with an event held much closer to home - Hi Corbett Field in Tucson at a Tucson Toros game.

- Lesson: We'll see in November. I might be mistaken about where this is all leading, but the Ds are doing things right while their erstwhile R challengers are trying to stick political knives in each other's backs and making the rounds of the usual suspects, hoping to schmooze them into opening their wallets.

Later...

2010 Campaign Committee Update

Some of this material has been covered elsewhere but it merits inclusion here...

...In CD3, attorney Paulina Morris has filed for a run at the R nomination to replace the soon-to-be retired John Shadegg. A name familiar to most AZ political geeks, Lisa Graham Keegan, has signed on as Morris' campaign treasurer. Keegan is a McCain confidant/ally and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction.

...In CD8, R candidate Thomas Carlson has ended his run for the chance to take on Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords. I don't know much about him or his reasons for running, but his reason for dropping out may be related to the fact that he raised a little over $2K for his campaign.

...In CD8, R state senator Jonathan Paton has finally resigned from the Senate to pursue his quest to unseat Giffords. He filed for his run weeks ago, so this wasn't unexpected.

...In CD1, R candidate Thomas Zaleski of Sedona has filed for a run at Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick.

...In CD5, perennial R candidate Susan Bitter Smith has filed for another run at Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell. She is a former member of the Scottsdale City Council and a current member of the Board of Directors of the Central Arizona Project. She is also a long-time lobbyist, mostly for the telecom/cable TV industry. Her entry into the race has long been rumored, so this isn't exactly a surprise.

...Also in CD5, R candidate Eric Wnuck has withdrawn from the race for his party's nomination. He cited family/business concerns, but a growing field in the R primary and a shrinking pool of available money may have had an impact on his decision, too. In his latest campaign filing, he listed donations at $52K; his first filing listed contributions of over $160K. That's a significant drop during a period when most campaigns are ramping *up* their fundraising efforts.

In Arizona offices...

...State Rep. David Bradley has filed for a run at Arizona Corporation Commission (filer ID 201000475). AZBlueMeanie at Blog for Arizona has coverage here.

...Doug Ducey, a Scottsdale businessman, has filed to enter the race for the Republican nomination for State Treasurer. Ducey is the former CEO of Cold Stone Creamery, so he has deep pockets, but he isn't exactly as popular as Cold Stone.

...In a sign that the Rs consider Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard to be a very strong candidate, the Republican Governor's Association has set up a PAC in Arizona so that they can expend monies attempting to influence the governor's race this year (filer ID 201000467).

...In Scottsdale, Republican Linda Milhaven, the former Chair of the Scottsdale Cultural Council, has entered the race for Scottsdale City Council. Her entry into the race has long been rumored and isn't a surprise. There are now eight active committees for runs for the three available seats on the Scottsdale City Council.

Later...

Other possible candidates in CD3 emerging

Warning: this post is mostly borne out of the fact that I am feeling under the weather and don't have the energy for anything more in-depth...


In addition to the previously mentioned names of folks entering the Rep primary to replace John Shadegg in Congress (Sens. Gorman and Waring, Rep. Crump, Mayor Parker, and Blogger Noble), other, more obscure names have been floated as having an interest. I make no guarantees about the accuracy of these sources (including the one where I'm the source).

Some of the names that are out there -

...Benjamin Quayle, the lawyer son of former U.S. VP Dan Quayle. My guess is that with a lawyer's education, he knows how to spell "potato" but I wonder if he learned the other main lesson of his father's career in elected office - don't get into an argument with a fictional character...and lose?

...Tom Smith, founder of TASER (source: the same New Times' article linked to Ben Quayle's name)

...Ed Winkler, former Mayor of Paradise Valley. May have even less name rec than the current mayor, Vernon Parker. At 65, Winkler is 5 years older than Shadegg, the man who is retiring. Not sure what that says about either of them.


The above-named contenders would be dark horses even if they actually enter the race, but I'm going to throw out a name just for giggles who would make the above dark horses look like Secretariat (and if you don't understand that reference, you are too young for my cliches :) ).

John Keegan, the Justice of the Peace for the Arrowhead Justice Precinct. Keegan gained some notoriety early in 2009 for throwing out the photo radar-generated ticket received by AZGOP Executive Director Brett Mecum. He is also known for being married to GOP operative/former State Superintendant of Public Instruction Lisa Graham Keegan (who, I suppose, could also choose to make a run at CD3.) So far as I know, neither Keegan lives in CD3, but that is a non-factor under Arizona law.

Keegan announced that he won't be seeking reelection as a JP in order to re-enter private business or to "pursue some other opportunity."

CD3 would certainly qualify as "some other opportunity."

It should be noted that the above Keegan entry is purely idle speculation on my part. I have no concrete evidence that Keegan is even remotely interested in the CD3 seat, much less seriously mulling a run. He's just an elected official who isn't running for reelection to his current office.

That's just an open invitation to wiseass bloggers like me. :)

Edit on 1/31 to add something I forgot to add while I was originally writing this post:

Folks should also remember that Keegan was a candidate for CD2 in 2002, coming in a respectable 3rd in a seven-way Republican primary, behind Lisa Atkins and eventual winner Trent Franks.

...End edit...

The first group of names (Gorman et. al.) qualify as "first tier" candidates as except for Noble, they currently hold (or extremely recently held) elected offices in the district. Noble makes the "first tier" list if he enters the race because of his close ties to Shadegg - he used to be Shadegg's chief of staff.

The newer names qualify as "second tier" because they are first-time candidates (Quayle, Smith), former office holders (Winkler), or are from outside of the district (the Keegans.)

However, any of them could move into serious contention if they enter the race and have good advisors - Quayle and Smith have access to tons o' cash, Winkler may have light name rec in the district, but he does have some, and the Keegans, especially Lisa, have ties to John McCain and may be able to call on his support if Noble doesn't enter the race.

Of course, the GOP in CD3, especially that in LD11 (McCain's home LD), is so fractured that McCain's support could impede, not help, a candidate.

Heh heh heh - and it's only January. :)

Early prediction time: the CD3 Republican primary is going to be *ugly*

How do I know this?

The earlier post on Sen. Jim Waring's resignation drew an interesting hit -

VISITOR ANALYSIS
Referring Link No referring link
Host Name rio.lincoln-strategy.com
IP Address 70.99.210.138
Country United States
Region Arizona
City Gilbert

For those readers who are unfamiliar with the name "Lincoln Strategy", it's the political "consulting" firm run by Arizona's Karl Rove-wannabe, Nathan Sproul. A good summary of Sproul's resume of election and registration fraud spanning the U.S., is available from ThinkProgress here.

I don't know which candidate's name triggered the hit because the post contained all four known candidates, but it seems that Sproul is working for one already or is angling for a contract with one of them.

Should be fun...for writers from places other than CD3. People who live in CD3?

Not so much.

Later...

Well, they won't have Pam Gorman to kick around any more...

FYI - Pam Gorman is the Republican state senator from LD6 (Anthem), and "they" refers to her own caucus and leadership in the State Senate.

From AZCentral.com's Political Insider -

Pamela Gorman made it official Monday, becoming the first Arizona lawmaker to resign the Legislature in pursuit of the District 3 congressional seat.

Gorman, an Anthem Republican, sent a brief and straight-forward letter to Senate President Bob Burns -- a marked departure from some of her earlier and somewhat preachy missives to the Senate GOP leadership.

{snip}

Gorman's departure, one Capitol wag observed, probably puts her back on Gov. Jan Brewer's Christmas-card list. Gorman held out against one-on-one lobbying from Brewer as the governor pressed for Gorman's "yes" vote on a sales-tax hike.

Gorman's opposition to that tax hike put her at odds with the direction of Senate leadership, prompting her to resign her majority-whip position last year.

The timing of this actually isn't a surprise.

A vacancy in the Senate during this part of the session of the lege doesn't mean much as there probably won't be any significant votes (aka - "budget stuff") any time soon. Her replacement will be from a list of three nominated by the Republican PCs in her district and approved by the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, who will most likely just rubber-stamp the choice of the supe from that part of the county (Andy Kunasek, I think).

Expect similar moves from the other sitting officeholders running in the CD3 Republican primary (State Sen. Jim Waring of LD7, State Rep. Sam Crump of LD6, Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, and possibly State Rep. Adam Driggs of LD11, whose name was floated by the AZRepublic this weekend.)