Horse Race time - Chaplik is in the AZCD1 race

News broke this week that Republican state representative Joe Chaplik (LD3) has entered the race the outgoing member of Congress in CD1, David Schweikert.  

Schweikert is running for governor of Arizona.

The person most hurt by his entry into the CD1 race may be Gina Swoboda.  She's the current chair of the AZGOP, and prior to Chaplik's entry, the biggest "name" in the race (quotes used because while they have more notoriety/name recognition than the other candidates, it's limited [not everyone is a political geek like me and know who major party chairs and members of the state legislature are])

The person most helped by his entry into the CD1 race may be one of those low name rec candidates.  If Swoboda and Chaplik spend the primary season launching political haymakers at each other, it may open up a path to victory in that race for one the others.

Also, while nominating signatures are due to be submitted by April 6, 2026, it's still early enough for a well-funded "big name" to enter the race.

Currently 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans have filed a Statement of Interest (SOI) in the race (filed with the Arizona Secretary of State)and/or formed a committee for run with the FEC (one Libertarian has an open committee, but is was formed in 2024 and has been receiving letters about a failure to file reports, so that person may not be running this year).

Below is a list of folks who have filed an SOI and/or formed a committee for a run next year.  In the date section, if no year is specified, the year is 2025.  Also, one date format is month (as text) followed by date.  That's because my spreadsheet program kept changing 3/4 to a fraction.

The vast majority of potential D candidates here filed their paperwork before Scheikert exited the race; the vast majority of Rs did so after.

Not all people who express interest/form a committee will be on a ballot.

I'm not going make any prediction regarding the outcome of race for the R nomination here - my prognosticating ability in R races is almost nonexistent.

As for the D race, no prediction until I see who's actually going to be on the ballot.

Caveat: CD1 in my district.