Get ready for a bumpy ride - AZ is in play in the November election

One upside that few folks have thought of:  the sales people at AZ TV and radio stations will sell a lot of ad time.

Expect lots of ads trying to instill fear of Kamala Harris and others trying to tie Donald Trump to bad acts.

Oh wait - the Trump stuff will be on the news.

He's a lousy human being and any ads will just have reiterate the news.

From fivethirtyeight -.

The polls initiated by the NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) and HighGround (a consulting firm run by a group of Republican fixers lobbyists) may be a little biased, but even those polls are close.

Caveat: this all bodes well for Harris, but now there's only one poll that really counts, and it takes place in November.

Either Cheeto is trying to tank the election or he believes the fix is in

Since he seems to want everyone kissing his butt and the other perks (and the regal stature immunity conferred upon the POTUS by certain justices on the US Supreme Court) that goes with the gig, my guess is that he figures the fix is in, and no matter what he says or does, he'll win.

From Politico -

Trump goes low as Harris gains ground

In a succession of crude social media posts, Trump called Harris “low IQ,” “dumb” and lacking “mental capacity.”

Donald Trump broadsided Kamala Harris in a string of derisive social media posts on Saturday, focusing his attacks on the vice president’s intellect after a week that saw her both out-fundraise him and surpass him in some battleground state polls.

In a succession of Truth Social posts after calling off his planned ABC debate with Harris, Trump called Harris “low IQ,” “dumb,” and said she lacked the “mental capacity” to debate him.

[snip]

“Anytime Trump isn’t talking about inflation, immigration and the economy, he’s not winning voters,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist in Arizona. “Going after Harris’ intellect isn’t going to move middle-of-the-road voters. They’re not going to care about whether a former prosecuting attorney is dumb or smart. They want to hear about a plan to rein in inflation and bring down interest rates and make the economy work for the middle class.”

Marson added: “He wants the bouncy house that is a Fox News crowd. He doesn’t want to do ABC. This is a nice way for him to rile her up.”

The polling is neck-and-neck (caveat: at this point, there's only one poll that really matters, and it takes place in November).  But I'm guessing Cheeto isn't worried.

From 538 -

Poll: Gallego leading Lake

Though in AZ, Biden vs. Trump is too close to call.

Pointed at this by fivethirtyeight.com.

I saw this today, and, while I firmly believe that when it comes to elections, there's only one poll that counts (and it's held in November, this poll is current enough to merit a post.

From fivethirtyeight -

The poll in question is from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and from and Mainstreet Research.

From FAU's press release -

BATTLEGROUND STATES NEVADA AND ARIZONA TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Click here for Full Crosstabs and Other Products From FAU/Mainstreet

Download Nevada Report

Download Arizona Report

With the 2024 election cycle fast approaching, new polling data from Nevada and Arizona reveal a deeply engaged and starkly divided electorate in these pivotal battleground states.

The FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research polls highlight the intense partisan polarization and motivations driving voter sentiment, including economic concerns, the legal proceedings against former U.S. President Donald Trump, and the potential entry of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third-party candidate.

[snip]

Ruben Gallego, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Arizona, is currently outperforming incumbent Republican Gov. Kari Lake (44% to 37%) suggesting that Lake has had a difficult time getting traction in this race.

Like Trump, Lake is leading only with voters under age 49, and more than 20% of voters in that age bracket indicate they are still undecided. The close numbers forecasting a fight for control of the House in Arizona underscore how the congressional generic ballot highlights the intense battle being waged across the state’s districts.

According to the full survey report, Gallego has a 7% lead among registered voters and an 8% lead among likely voters.

One note about the press release: it cites Lake as the incumbent governor.  She's not.  She was the 2022 R nominee for AZGov. She just wishes she was governor, and has filed lawsuits to overturn the results.  None of those have been successful in overturning the election; of course, that may not have been the real purpose of the lawsuits.

Her rubes supporters have sent her a lot of money based on her claims.

Kyrsten Sinema: Even the NRSC thinks she's toast

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From NBCNews, emphasis added by me -

Head of Senate GOP campaign arm shows Republicans internal poll with Democrat leading in Arizona

At a closed-door meeting Tuesday, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines showed fellow GOP senators an internal poll of a three-way Arizona Senate race that found Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading with 41%, followed by Republican Kari Lake with 37% and independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema with 17%, said a source familiar with the meeting.

Notably, Daines told Republicans that Sinema is currently pulling more votes from Lake than she is from Gallego, despite her longtime affiliation with Democrats before she became an independent last year.

Actually, the highlighted section may be an incorrect statement.

From the Political Wire post -

In a head-to-head matchup, Gallego leads Lake 49% to 44%.

Based on that, with Sinema in the race, Gallego is leading by 4%; with her not running, he's leading by 5%.  Seems like that she's pulling votes from him, so the NRSC may be hoping that she runs for re-election.  She's not going to win, but her presence helps Lake.

Fasten your seatbelts for the 2024 elections: Poll says more than 1/5 of all Americans and 1/3 of Republicans support political violence

The Public Religion Research Institute (hereafter, PRRI) released a poll this week on the 2024 election.

Their write up is here; a .pdf of the survey presentation can be downloaded there.

Right now, most polls are of the "who will you vote for?" variety; this one is about attitudes and will be mostly ignored by the MSM and the general public.  But it shouldn't be.

First, the big news (some of these pics will be from the survey presentation, some will from the write up):

Yes, 1/3 of Rs are OK with politically violence.

According to the Arizona Secretary of State's website, there are approximately 1.45 million registered Republicans in the state, which means a little fewer than 500,000 of them are OK with politically-motivated violence being perpetrated, presumably on those who dare to disagree with them.

And this being Arizona, I expect that number is higher in the real world.

Other things -

Democratic voters are *really*  pro-choice while R voters *really* hate those who don't look like them.

This one kind of ties in with the first one - Rs *really* object to any that doesn't comport with their worldview.

I'd say that 2024 is going to be popcorn-riffic, but violence isn't entertaining.

Political violence: not an American value, but too many Americans think that it's OK

From Fivethirtyeight -

What Americans Think About Political Violence

Last week, a man broke into the home of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and violently attacked her husband, Paul. While Pelosi’s husband is expected to make a full recovery, and details are still emerging about the attack, it was a brutal realization of the increase in threats of violence against lawmakers and their families in recent years. And most disturbingly, recent polling shows that some Americans say political violence is sometimes justified.

Polls in recent months have gauged Americans’ views on political violence in a few different ways, but they almost always capture some segment of the population that deems political violence acceptable. When asked whether the use of force or violence was justified “to advance an important political objective,” 1 in 5 Americans said it was, at least sometimes, according to a survey from researchers at the University of California, Davis, conducted in May and June. And in a Reuters/Ipsos poll from September, 17 percent of Americans somewhat or strongly agreed that political violence against those they disagreed with was acceptable, with slightly more Democrats agreeing with the statement than Republicans or independents. However, just a small fraction of registered voters said taking up arms or a civil war was necessary to fix our democracy in a recent New York Times/Siena poll.

Violence, as the Pelosi family has seen, as threats of violence, as we in Arizona have seen, is on the rise.

From 12News, written by Brahm Resnik

How long before election deniers kill people?

We should be worried, very worried in fact

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

When talking about a poll, Goddard (and other MSM types) like to say that "Most Republicans Reject ‘MAGA’ Label", yet what should worry the majority of Americans is the finding that over 40% of Rs embrace it and the treason that goes with it.

From Goddard -

A new Grinnell College/Selzer & Co. national poll finds 42% of Republicans in the U.S. identify as “MAGA” Republicans, while 58% disavow the term.

Of those who embrace the label, they are disproportionately male (59%), 55 and older (55%), white (77%), lacking a college degree (76%), and make more than $50,000 a year (60%).

 

From the poll itself -

Health of American Democracy, Economy, Abortion Leading Factors Heading into 2022 Election

A new Grinnell College National Poll shows that four in five likely voters in the 2022 general election believe the overall health of American democracy is a major factor in determining how they will vote in the upcoming election. The findings of the poll, conducted Sept. 20-25, 2022, by Selzer & Company, were released Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022.

[snip]

Confidence in Voting Process on the Rise

Sixty-four percent of Americans have confidence that votes in the upcoming election will be counted as intended – a number that has risen over the past 18 months (53% in the March 2021 Grinnell College National Poll).

The press release doesn't contain the "MAGA" data, but it's still illuminating.

Primary early voting has started; Masters may have peaked at the right time...for an R primary

Pointed at this by RealClearPolitics.

From OH Predictive Insights -

AZ GOP SENATE RACE: Masters of His own Destiny

Masters on the Rise, Brnovich Loses Ground, Lamon Stays Competitive – 35% Still Undecided

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

As Arizona’s primary elections race towards us – and with early ballots beginning hitting mailboxes this week – the race to face Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly for a Senate seat just got more interesting. According to OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) latest statewide Likely GOP Primary Voter Poll, Blake Masters has reared his head as the new frontrunner in Arizona’s GOP Senate Primary.

This AZPOP was conducted from June 30th – July 2nd, 2022 and surveyed 515 Arizonans qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Guessing that the Kelly campaign team is studying their oppo research on Masters right about now.

Here's something for the RSCC et. al. to think about: Maybe traitors and those who support treason aren't likeable

From Axios -

The (new) GOP plan to defeat Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly

Republican strategists have discovered a problem: Personal attacks on two of the most vulnerable Democratic senators are falling flat because of their likability.

Why it matters: In a broadly unfavorable national environment for Democrats, control of the Senate may rest on a pair of incumbents with two of the most compelling backstories in politics — Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Mark Kelly of Arizona.

• Warnock is the pastor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.'s Ebenezer Baptist Church.
• Kelly is a former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, a gun control activist who survived an assassination attempt in 2011.

Of course, this failure on the GQP's part could be related to something documented by Emerson College Polling -

National Poll: Biden With Higher Approval Than US Congress & Supreme Court;

Trump Leads GOP Nomination Contest

The latest Emerson College Polling national survey of US voters finds a majority disapprove of President Biden, Congress, and the Supreme Court. Biden has a 40% job approval, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Since last month, Biden’s approval has increased two points. The US Congress has a 19% job approval, while 70% disapprove of the job they are doing. The Supreme Court has a 36% job approval; 54% disapprove. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Independent voters align more with Democrats on Supreme Court approval: 71% of Democrats and 58% of Independents disapprove of the job that the Supreme Court is doing whereas a majority, 56%, of Republicans approve of the job they are doing.”

The full results of Emerson's poll are available on their webpage.

This is in keeping with some poll numbers available on fivethirtyeight's website -

I'm not going to delve further into the poll for two reason:

1. It's of registered voters, not likely voters.

2. Future Majority is affiliated with Democratic candidates.  While not as bad as Rasmussen, it still has some of the same credibility issues.

At this point in primary season, name recognition rules

While this poll covers only the R statewide primaries, I'm going to presume that D primaries are in the same name rec boat.

To be fair, that may be the only area where Democratic primary voters are similar the Republican primary voters.

KTAR has a story up on this poll.

Polling from OH Predictive Insights.

From OH -

AZ GOP Gov Race: Lake Leads, Robson Climbing, Salmon Stalls

With Arizona’s primary election roughly three months away and many competitive GOP primary races showing crowded fields, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) conducted its first statewide Likely GOP Primary Voter Poll of the current election cycle. The recent survey among Arizona likely voters revealed a competitive race for Governor and U.S. Senate, however, aside from the State Treasurer’s race, the remaining statewide offices are currently a jump ball.   

This AZPOP was conducted April 4th, 2022 – April 5th, 2022 and surveyed 500 Arizona qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

One thing that isn't surprising is that among Republican primary voters, fear of The Other is the most important issue.

Among candidates, though, the winner right now is "Unsure".

I expect that as the calendar gets closer to August, the gloves will come off.  For example, Tom Horne is leading the R race for Superintendent of Public Instruction, so it probably won't be long before one of his competitors brings up his scandals.

Arizona Poll Day: Governor's race

Pointed to this by fivethirtyeight.com.

From Data Orbital -

Breaking: Kari Lake besting other Republican challengers in race against Democrat Katie Hobbs

Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest statewide, live-caller survey of likely general election voters. The survey was conducted from February 11th to February 13th. 

With little data publicly available, the survey focused on the upcoming, hotly contested race for Governor in Arizona. The survey tested all four Republican candidates against likely Democrat nominee Katie Hobbs.

[snip]

From Data Orbital's toplines document -

This is interesting, but that's all.

There are two problems with the poll:

1. They ignored the candidates' respective primaries.  While Hobbs and Lake are the favorites in their primaries, there's no guarantee that they'll win.  Some primary polling would be nice.

2. They oversampled Republican voters and to a lesser extent, Democratic ones, too, and undersampled Independent/Unaffiliated ones.

From the most recent AZ voter registration report -

Sinema has something to worry about, Kelly's ahead: Arizona poll day

Pointed to the Sinema stuff by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From a Data for Progress release -

Poll: Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema Set to Be Unseated by Possible Challenger Ruben Gallego in 2024 Primary Landslide

In October 2021, Data for Progress published poll findings that captured the extent of Arizona Democratic primary voters’ dissatisfaction with Senator Kyrsten Sinema: She had the highest unfavorability rating of any elected Democrat tested in the state, and she was poised to lose her 2024 primary by a wide margin.

Since then, speculation has mounted that progressive Representative Ruben Gallego, a Harvard-educated Iraq War veteran, is seriously considering a bid. Meanwhile, Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party this week for her defense of the filibuster, which came at the expense of passing popular voting rights legislation. 

Data for Progress’ initial polling found Gallego to be in the best position to beat Sinema in 2024. New Data for Progress polling finds that, since October, Sinema’s favorability has dipped even further — and that Gallego’s potential to secure a primary victory has increased.

From the full poll -

[snip]

For Senator Kyrsten Sinema, her next hurdle is going to be her 2024 primary election, where she is going to have to convince Democratic primary voters in Arizona that she deserves to keep her job. Activists who are disappointed with her obstructionism and reluctance to support President Biden’s popular agenda are already organizing to draft other high profile Arizona politicians, like Rep. Ruben Gallego, to run against her in 2024. According to our new poll of likely Arizona Democratic primary voters conducted in October, using the same methodology we used in the recent New York City mayoral primary, we find that Sen. Sinema faces a steep uphill battle to defend her record and convince voters she should stay — as negative sentiment towards her continues to grow.

[snip]

From FiveThirtyEight, also from a Data for Progress poll -

Also from Data for Progress -

Mark Kelly Narrowly Leads in Arizona 2022 General Election Matchup

In recent years, Arizona — a traditional battleground state — has trended blue. Voters elected Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly to the Senate in upset victories in 2018 and 2020, respectively, and in 2020 the state narrowly voted for Joe Biden. But amid surges in Republican voter enthusiasm and turnout, Arizona is once again poised to become a battleground. Kelly, who won his seat in a special election, is running for his first full term, and a crowded slate of Republicans are hoping to replace him. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey is term-limited and is thus not eligible to run for re-election in 2022. While he has stated he will not be joining his party’s Senate primary as recently as January 20, 2022, speculation about a possible run has mounted anyway.

New Data for Progress polling gauges the state of the 2022 midterm elections in Arizona, analyzing favorability and approval across different candidates and elected officials as well as the issues Arizona voters support. 

Yes, I do wish that Kelly was doing better (and I think he should be), but I'm torn - would he be better off facing Brnovich or Ducey?

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Sinema better have a corporate lobbying gig already lined up.