Well, it's obvious that Masters has learned one thing from Cheeto-it doesn't matter if one wins or loses an election, one should never stop grifting

Did Masters hear Peter Thiel's whip cracking did he respond to a silent tug on his leash as if he had heard the whip?

The Arizona race for a seat in the U.S Senate favors incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly.

In fact, it favors him so much, the race has been called for Kelly.

From Yahoo! -

Mark Kelly defeats Blake Masters in Arizona, leaving Democrats 1 seat away from holding the Senate

Incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly has defeated his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, in Arizona, boosting Democratic hopes of holding onto the Senate.

With 83% of votes counted, the Associated Press called the race Friday evening for Kelly — a Navy combat veteran, retired NASA astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Ariz. He leads Masters, a 36-year-old “anti-progressive” venture capitalist, by an insurmountable 52% to 46% margin.

Yet that loss isn't slowing down Masters.

From an email from Conservative Intel (I'm on some really weird email lists.  :) ) -

Q: Does Blake Masters Take Euros?

A: Of course he does.

From BusinessInsider -

Billionaire Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel is in the process of acquiring Maltese citizenship, report says

Silicon Valley investor and former Trump adviser Peter Thiel is hoping to add Malta to his foreign passport collection, according to a Saturday report by The New York Times.

Thiel, who was born in Germany, is also an American and New Zealand citizen. The billionaire PayPal founder has donated approximately $30 million to Republican candidates running for office in next month's midterm elections, according to the Times, making him one of the race's most influential individual donors. 

From the Central Bank of Malta -

[snip]

With the adoption of the euro in Malta on 1 January 2008, the Bank became responsible for the issuance of euro banknotes and coins in accordance with the principles and rules established within the Eurosystem.

On one hand, Malta *does* have an extradition treaty with the U.S. (which may be why Cheeto will never go there); on the other hand, the desire for a Malta citizenship may just be a tax avoidance scheme on Thiel's part.

From Price Waterhouse Coopers (emphasis added by me)-

Malta

Individual - Taxes on personal income

Malta taxes individuals who are both domiciled and ordinarily resident in Malta on their worldwide income.

Any person who is ordinarily resident in Malta but not domiciled in Malta is taxable only on income arising in Malta and on any foreign income remitted to Malta (i.e. on income and chargeable gains arising in Malta and on income outside Malta that is received in Malta). Such persons are not taxable in Malta on income arising outside Malta, which is not received in Malta, and on capital gains arising outside Malta, regardless of whether they are received in Malta, or otherwise.

However, persons who are married to an individual ordinarily resident and domiciled in Malta are subject to a worldwide basis of taxation (and not on a source and remittance basis).

A non-resident individual is taxed only on income and chargeable gains arising in Malta.

Of course, it may not matter if Thiel's financial largesse to Masters is in dollars or euros.  Masters is already expecting to lose the race, and is trotting out his story/excuse.

From The Daily Beast -

Blake Masters Is Already Claiming His Election Will Be Stolen

In his campaign to unseat Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Republican Blake Masters has consistently amplified skepticism and conspiracy theories surrounding the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

But during the final stretch of his own 2022 race, Masters is starting to cast doubt on the outcome of this election—before the votes are even counted.

Think that Cheeto's acolytes will want people to honor elections that go the way the Cheeto's acolytes want?

I'm thinking yes.

But for elections that don't go their way?

The preemptive whining has already started.

From the New York Times via Yahoo! -

Echoing Trump, These Republicans Won't Promise to Accept 2022 Results

Nearly two years after President Donald Trump refused to accept his defeat in the 2020 election, some of his most loyal Republican acolytes might follow in his footsteps.

When asked, six Trump-backed Republican nominees for governor and the Senate in midterm battlegrounds would not commit to accepting this year’s election results, and another five Republicans ignored or declined to answer a question about embracing the November outcome. All of them, along with many other GOP candidates, have preemptively cast doubt on how their states count votes.

[snip]

Aides to several Republican nominees for governor who have questioned the 2020 election’s legitimacy did not respond to repeated requests for comment on their own races in November. Those candidates included Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania, Kari Lake of Arizona, Tim Michels of Wisconsin and Dan Cox of Maryland.

Lake was asked in a radio interview this month whether she would concede a defeat to Katie Hobbs, her Democratic rival and Arizona’s secretary of state. “I’m not losing to Katie Hobbs,” Lake replied.

Hobbs’ spokesperson, Sarah Robinson, said her candidate “will accept the results of the election in November.”

[snip]

In Arizona — where Republicans spent months on a government-funded review of 2020 ballots that failed to show any evidence of fraud — Masters, the Trump-backed Republican nominee for Senate, baselessly predicted to supporters in July that even if he defeated Sen. Mark Kelly, the incumbent Democrat, enough votes would somehow be produced to flip the result.

“There’s always cheating, probably, in every election,” Masters said. “The question is, what’s the cheating capacity?”

A Masters aide, Katie Miller, sent the Times an August article in The Arizona Republic in which Masters said there was “evidence of incompetence” but not of fraud in the state’s primary election. Miller declined to say if Masters would respect the November results.

Kelly “has total trust in Arizona’s electoral process,” said a spokesperson, Sarah Guggenheimer.

Get ready for a bumpy ride - the election may be over on November 8th, but the need for cheese to go with that whine will go on for a while.  

A long while.

Shockingly, Arizona makes the news, and it's not for a bad thing

From AP (emphasis added by me)-

Russia sanctions 25 more Americans, including Penn, Stiller

Russia imposed personal sanctions Monday on 25 Americans, including 

actors Sean Penn and Ben Stiller, in response to U.S. sanctions against 

Russians stemming from the conflict in Ukraine.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo was on the new sanctions list, 

as were several American senators: 

Mark Kelly and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, 

Mike Rounds of South Dakota, Rick Scott of Florida, and 

Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.

That may the nicest thing ever said about Sinema.

Blake Masters is hoping Peter Thiel's leash can act as a lifeline

Mark Kelly can breathe a little easier tonight, but only a little.

From The Hill -

GOP super PAC canceling ads in Arizona, Alaska

A Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is canceling advertisements in Arizona less than three months out from the midterm elections, a possible sign of problems for the Trump-backed GOP candidate challenging Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).

The Senate Leadership Fund called off its advertisement reservations that were set to air in Arizona between Sept. 6 and Oct. 3, according to AdImpact.

Well, at least we'll find out two things -

1. How big a rift develops between Cheeto and more mainstream GQPers like Mitch McConnell.

2. How golden the leash extending from Peter Thiel's hand to Blake Masters is at this point.

With pockets as deep as Thiel's, this race isn't over; he may just have to dig a little deeper.

Primary early voting has started; Masters may have peaked at the right time...for an R primary

Pointed at this by RealClearPolitics.

From OH Predictive Insights -

AZ GOP SENATE RACE: Masters of His own Destiny

Masters on the Rise, Brnovich Loses Ground, Lamon Stays Competitive – 35% Still Undecided

Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

As Arizona’s primary elections race towards us – and with early ballots beginning hitting mailboxes this week – the race to face Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly for a Senate seat just got more interesting. According to OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) latest statewide Likely GOP Primary Voter Poll, Blake Masters has reared his head as the new frontrunner in Arizona’s GOP Senate Primary.

This AZPOP was conducted from June 30th – July 2nd, 2022 and surveyed 515 Arizonans qualified as likely GOP primary voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.

Guessing that the Kelly campaign team is studying their oppo research on Masters right about now.

Here's something for the RSCC et. al. to think about: Maybe traitors and those who support treason aren't likeable

From Axios -

The (new) GOP plan to defeat Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly

Republican strategists have discovered a problem: Personal attacks on two of the most vulnerable Democratic senators are falling flat because of their likability.

Why it matters: In a broadly unfavorable national environment for Democrats, control of the Senate may rest on a pair of incumbents with two of the most compelling backstories in politics — Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Mark Kelly of Arizona.

• Warnock is the pastor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.'s Ebenezer Baptist Church.
• Kelly is a former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, a gun control activist who survived an assassination attempt in 2011.

Of course, this failure on the GQP's part could be related to something documented by Emerson College Polling -

National Poll: Biden With Higher Approval Than US Congress & Supreme Court;

Trump Leads GOP Nomination Contest

The latest Emerson College Polling national survey of US voters finds a majority disapprove of President Biden, Congress, and the Supreme Court. Biden has a 40% job approval, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Since last month, Biden’s approval has increased two points. The US Congress has a 19% job approval, while 70% disapprove of the job they are doing. The Supreme Court has a 36% job approval; 54% disapprove. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Independent voters align more with Democrats on Supreme Court approval: 71% of Democrats and 58% of Independents disapprove of the job that the Supreme Court is doing whereas a majority, 56%, of Republicans approve of the job they are doing.”

The full results of Emerson's poll are available on their webpage.

This is in keeping with some poll numbers available on fivethirtyeight's website -

I'm not going to delve further into the poll for two reason:

1. It's of registered voters, not likely voters.

2. Future Majority is affiliated with Democratic candidates.  While not as bad as Rasmussen, it still has some of the same credibility issues.

Dear campaign staffers for Sen. Mark Kelly: publicize this

From Politico -

Garcetti allies tried to put the screws to Mark Kelly. It may have backfired.

Democratic powerbrokers close to Eric Garcetti privately pressured Sen. Mark Kelly to support the Los Angeles mayor’s ambassadorial nomination, according to five people familiar with the outreach.

As part of the push, they left the strong impression that the Arizona Democrat could find himself cut off from donor networks should he refuse to back the beleaguered nominee to be U.S. ambassador to India.

I don't know who is going to win the R primary, but I expect that whoever it is won't compare well to someone who isn't for sale.

Sinema has something to worry about, Kelly's ahead: Arizona poll day

Pointed to the Sinema stuff by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From a Data for Progress release -

Poll: Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema Set to Be Unseated by Possible Challenger Ruben Gallego in 2024 Primary Landslide

In October 2021, Data for Progress published poll findings that captured the extent of Arizona Democratic primary voters’ dissatisfaction with Senator Kyrsten Sinema: She had the highest unfavorability rating of any elected Democrat tested in the state, and she was poised to lose her 2024 primary by a wide margin.

Since then, speculation has mounted that progressive Representative Ruben Gallego, a Harvard-educated Iraq War veteran, is seriously considering a bid. Meanwhile, Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party this week for her defense of the filibuster, which came at the expense of passing popular voting rights legislation. 

Data for Progress’ initial polling found Gallego to be in the best position to beat Sinema in 2024. New Data for Progress polling finds that, since October, Sinema’s favorability has dipped even further — and that Gallego’s potential to secure a primary victory has increased.

From the full poll -

[snip]

For Senator Kyrsten Sinema, her next hurdle is going to be her 2024 primary election, where she is going to have to convince Democratic primary voters in Arizona that she deserves to keep her job. Activists who are disappointed with her obstructionism and reluctance to support President Biden’s popular agenda are already organizing to draft other high profile Arizona politicians, like Rep. Ruben Gallego, to run against her in 2024. According to our new poll of likely Arizona Democratic primary voters conducted in October, using the same methodology we used in the recent New York City mayoral primary, we find that Sen. Sinema faces a steep uphill battle to defend her record and convince voters she should stay — as negative sentiment towards her continues to grow.

[snip]

From FiveThirtyEight, also from a Data for Progress poll -

Also from Data for Progress -

Mark Kelly Narrowly Leads in Arizona 2022 General Election Matchup

In recent years, Arizona — a traditional battleground state — has trended blue. Voters elected Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly to the Senate in upset victories in 2018 and 2020, respectively, and in 2020 the state narrowly voted for Joe Biden. But amid surges in Republican voter enthusiasm and turnout, Arizona is once again poised to become a battleground. Kelly, who won his seat in a special election, is running for his first full term, and a crowded slate of Republicans are hoping to replace him. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey is term-limited and is thus not eligible to run for re-election in 2022. While he has stated he will not be joining his party’s Senate primary as recently as January 20, 2022, speculation about a possible run has mounted anyway.

New Data for Progress polling gauges the state of the 2022 midterm elections in Arizona, analyzing favorability and approval across different candidates and elected officials as well as the issues Arizona voters support. 

Yes, I do wish that Kelly was doing better (and I think he should be), but I'm torn - would he be better off facing Brnovich or Ducey?

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Sinema better have a corporate lobbying gig already lined up.

Kelly leads Republicans in 2022 race

Guess being anti-vax/anti mask/anti society isn't a good way to attract voters.

Pointed to this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From OH Predictive Insights -

Kelly Leads in All Head-To-Head Matchups

Brnovich on Top in GOP Senate Primary

When Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Kelly was elected last November, he faced a rather unique position than most of his other freshman colleagues: U.S. Senators are normally elected to six-year terms, but Kelly – who won a special election to finish the late-Sen. John McCain's term – would have to face voters once again in two years for a fresh six-year term. According to OH Predictive Insights’ (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey, Senator Mark Kelly is leading the pack in all head-to-head matchups. 

This Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey was conducted September 7th – September 12th, 2021 and surveyed 882 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. 

[snip]

Toplines and crosstabs here; 

Dear Mark Kelly: In the future, avoid Lindsay Graham

 Actually, avoid all Republicans...and Joe Manchin.  I'd recommend avoiding Kyrstem Sinema, but as both of you are US Senators from Arizona, that might hard to pull off.

Pointed to this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From Punchbowl News -

The Capitol has once again been sent into a Covid frenzy. But this time, it’s in the middle of the Senate’s push to pass a massive bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who belongs to the 22-senator bipartisan infrastructure group -- tested positive for Covid-19 this morning. Like most every other senator, Graham has been walking around the Capitol without a mask. The South Carolina Republican has been vaccinated, but he started feeling sick on Saturday and tested positive for the virus this morning in the Capitol. 

[snip]

→ Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) was on the boat. From his office: “Senator Kelly came into contact with Senator Graham during a bipartisan gathering this weekend hosted by Senator Manchin. Senator Kelly is fully vaccinated and following CDC guidelines and the advice of the Office of the Attending Physician.” 

Yes, Kyrsten Sinema is in trouble

From Data For Progress (pointed to this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire) - 

WHO IS KYRSTEN SINEMA REALLY REPRESENTING?

Halfway through her term as Senator of Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema is finding herself seemingly at odds with the members of her party. Her dedication to preserving the filibuster has stood as a significant obstacle to enacting a number of important bills and to more general Democratic governance despite the party’s trifecta in Washington, DC. Most recently, her unwavering stance on the filibuster enabled Republicans to block the For the People Act, a sweeping voting rights bill that is popular with the Democratic base, leadership, and her constituents back home in Arizona. In a recent poll by Data For Progress, we found strong majority support for this bill and a number of others that are high on the Democrats’ policy agenda. We also found that Arizona voters from across the political spectrum are displeased overall with her performance as Senator. Taken together, this begs the question: if her policy stances are alienating leadership and voters alike, who exactly is Kyrsten Sinema representing in Congress?

Even if she makes it through a primary, in a general election, she'll have problems.

I expect that many of the folks who, like me, held their noses and voted for her in 2018, will skip the race if she's on the general election ballot in 2024.

It also may be why Doug Ducey is letting Mark Brnovich take on Mark Kelly in 2022 for his seat in the US Senate; in 2024, he wants to be the Republican nominee for POTUS, and may settle for being the R nominee for VPOTUS.  Depending on how that works out, he may accept the consolation prize of challenging Sinema for a spot in the US Senate.

The best thing for Sinema may be if the R nominee is someone who is utterly nuts; say a Gosar or Biggs.

On the other hand, they're in safe Congressional districts so they may not run for a Senate seat..