I know that it's early and later writers will do summaries that are both longer and less Maricopa County-centric.
Having said that, there are a number of developments in the political world here in AZ in 2023 that will have effects in 2024.
1. It started in 2022 (actually, it may have started before that when it became obvious that she was a lousy US Senator, but it become official in 2022), but Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's change from the Democratic Party to Unaffiliated has set up a 2024 election race that involves Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (I'm not predicting that she will win her primary, but as of now, I'm presuming that she will be the nominee) and, perhaps, Sinema herself (if she mounts a third party run).
From CNBC, dated 12/9/2022 -
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party to become
independent
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has switched parties to become an independent, complicating the Democrats’ narrow control of the U.S. Senate.
Sinema said in a tweet Friday that she was declaring her “independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent.”
It's a statewide race, but since Maricopa County has ~60% of the state's population and registered voters, the race is considered to be Maricopa-centric.
2. The decision by Republican Congresswoman Debbie Lesko to not seek re-election in 2024. Her decision has set off a massive primary battle for north/northwestern Maricopa County district. Not every R running for the seat actually lives in the district, but that's not required per the US Constitution and since this is a safe R seat, no R candidate will pass this one by.
I'm actually a little surprised that former Phoenix city council member Sal DiCiccio and perennial candidate Rodney Glassman haven't jumped into the race.
On the other hand, it's early yet. :)
From AP, dated 10/17/2023 -
US Rep. Debbie Lesko won’t seek re-election in Arizona next year
U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko announced Tuesday that she will not run for office next year.
The Arizona Republican has decided to spend more time with family.
In a statement, Lesko, 64, said traveling every month to Washington, D.C. has been difficult and that “D.C. is broken.”
None of the Rs running to replace will "unbreak" D.C.
3. The announcement by Democrat Paul Penzone that not only will he not seek re-election as Maricopa County Sheriff in 2024, he'll resign from the job in January.
From Arizona's Family, written by their digital news staff and Micaela Marshall, dated 10/2/2023 -
Penzone won’t seek 3rd term as Maricopa County Sheriff, will step down in January
Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone says he will not seek a 3rd term and will be stepping down as Sheriff in January 2024.
“I have decided that I will not pursue a third term,” said Penzone during an emotional news conference Monday afternoon. “Not because I leave this office in any way, shape, or form disappointed; it has all been incredible. It is the greatest privilege and blessing that anyone could’ve asked for, especially in a profession like this.” Penzone said.
As off this writing, only three committees are open for a run at the office - one by Penzone himself, one by Joe Arpaio, the man Penzone defeated in 2016 (but that committee is very old and may not be intended for a run in 2024) and one by Jerry Sheridan, a former Arpaio henchman/deputy. However, he formed his committee well before Penzone's announcement. He was going to run regardless of everything else.
4. The first three items listed are "horse race" matters and will receive scads of attention from the MSM, if only because they're easy to report on.
However, while not as easy to report on, the next issue may be more significant. It's about how races are run. I've listed it here at #4, but it may end up being the most significant issue in 2024.
From AZ Mirror, written by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy, dated 9/26/2023 -
98% of Arizonans will have new elections officials in 2024, report finds
Arizona has lost nearly all of its experienced election officials and 98% of the state will have new officials running elections in 2024 than ran the 2020 elections, a new report found.
The Grand Canyon State has been center stage for election misinformation since 2020, with efforts such as the Arizona Senate Republicans’ “audit” of the 2020 presidential election and Kari Lake’s continuing efforts to overturn her 2022 loss in the race for governor.
The state has also seen threats of violence towards election officials and those who help administer elections. Five recent cases from the U.S. Department of Justice were all from Arizona that included individuals who called for election officials to be killed and in some areas, such as in Yavapai County, one official ended up needing security from the local sheriff at their home.
This isn't just an Arizona problem, it's a national one.
From The Union of Concerned Scientists' The Equation, dated 10/18/2023 -
2024 Election Workers Need Better Protection from Harassment
Most election workers are probably like my late mother-in-law. Mary Holmes spent many of her senior years volunteering at the polls in Cambridge, MA. She considered this work a part of her civic duty, just as she had decades earlier when she volunteered as a school traffic guard.
She never voiced a moment of fear, either from motorists who respected her waving of arms and her reflective vest, or from voters, many of whom hurriedly hustled in and out of the ballot box on their way to work or on the way home from work to dinner. I cannot recall anything specific she ever said about this work. It was just what you did in a community. Her many years of service spoke for themselves about her pride in playing a seemingly small role in democracy.
We’ve learned more in recent years about how large a role she actually played. The mobs of January 6, 2021 and the malevolent harassment of election workers and officials all over the nation by deniers of the 2020 defeat of former President Donald Trump have left this slice of democracy on an unprecedented precipice. According to a report released last month by Issue One, a nonpartisan democracy think tank, roughly 40 percent of chief local elections officials in 11 western states have left their posts since the 2020 election.
The Issue One report referenced in both articles is here.
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