Dear Democratic primary voters in LD8: Please write in Lauren Kuby for state senate

Failed candidate David Alger fronted a legal challenge to the one Democratic candidate for state senate in LD8, Rep. Melody Hernandez.

It was successful, in that she withdrew from the race, leaving the Democratic ballot in that district with no candidate for the state senate seat on the ballot.

One person has stepped into the gap. - Lauren Kuby, a former member of the Tempe City Council and long-time community activist.

I don't expect everyone to agree with me on everything (they should though, as I'm always right,  Just ask me. :) )

However, I do expect that all of my elected officials to be decent and honorable human beings, and Lauren falls squarely into that category. 

As she's running as a write-in candidate, she'll need at least 405 people to write her name on their primary ballots in order for her to appear on the general election ballot.

And she easily deserves that.

Note: I've linked to her campaign website on the sidebar to the right.  If you can donate to her campaign, please do so.

Maricopa County primary candidates for 2024

Note: this is based only on signatures submitted and could (and probably will) be changed by legal challenges.

From Maricopa County's list of primary candidates -

Note2: The "Signatures Needed" column info is from Maricopa County here.

All countywide seats have challengers (which is a good thing for democracy) and only one race will be decided in the primary as all candidates for that office are from one party (County Treasurer with only two Republican candidates)

The 2026 election cycle has already started; some potential candidates have already filed statements of interest for offices up for election then.  Countywide offices up for election will be this year so the statements of interest for 2026 are only for constable and JP races.  So far.

Note3: Just because a candidate expresses "interest" in a particular race doesn't mean that they will be on a ballot.

Sen. Sinema says "goodbye" to the people of Arizona

Maybe the people of Arizona should advise her to not let the door hit her in the ass on the way out.

From CNN -

Kyrsten Sinema announces she is retiring from the Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will leave the Senate at the end of her term this year, a move that will shake up the battle for control of the chamber in November and remove a key player who has been central to major negotiations in Congress.

Sinema has been an influential yet polarizing figure in the Senate and has frequently worked to broker compromise between Democrats and Republicans. In announcing her decision not to seek reelection, the Arizona senator said, “I believe in my approach, but it’s not what America wants right now.”

The headline should be rewritten as "Kyrsten Sinema has figured out that she has no way of getting re-elected".  Or maybe as "Kyrsten Sinema has realized that getting tens of thousands of nominating signatures in less than a month is an unrealistic task."

Of course, "independent" just means (allegedly) "for sale to the highest bidder," while "polarizing" means "she's despised only by people who who have seen her in action."

While many folks have said that her "retirement" helps Ruben Gallego, I think it helps presumed R nominee Kari Lake more - a few months ago, she polled closer to Gallego when Sinema wasn't considered.

It will be interesting to see a poll taken after Sinema's announced withdrawal.

Committee update

This is about committees formed not placement on a ballot.  I'll do another of these posts when ballots come out.

This is not meant to be a comprehensive list; the people listed are people I have something to say about.  This is not intended as a slight toward the others, some of whom will win their races.  I just have nothing to say about them at this point.

Lesko is a former member (actually, she's a current member but isn't running for reelection this year) of Congress and the AZ state lege.

Heap is a current member of the state lege, and shockingly (OK, not really shocking news here) he has ethical issues.

Skinner was appointed as Maricopa County Sheriff and is now running for a full term.

Kamp is a former police officer and is running for a term as county sheriff.

Grove is a failed 2022 candidate for AZ AG, losing in the primary to eventual gen election loser Abe Hamadeh.

Arizona Presidential Primary Candidates

On December 18, 2024, the Arizona Secretary of State was supposed to hold a lottery to determine the order of names on the ballots for the Presidential Preference Elections (PPE) -

The results of that  haven't been posted as yet, but an alphabetized list of PPE candidates has been -

A more user-friendly list of candidates is here.

One item of note: no non-major party candidates will be on primary ballots here in AZ.

Federal Committee update - Oops on my part edition

Well, almost..

First, the update -

Initially, I thought this was a misfile on the candidate's part as I thought he's running for a seat in the AZ Senate.  However, I've seen his introduction video and he's actually running for U.S. Senate.

Normally, I wouldn't cover a quixotic candidate (I believe that he's got a snowball's chance in Phoenix...in July...of winning that primary) except for his (apparent) oopsie.

Ummmm...U.S. Senate seats are statewide seats, not districted.

Federal Committees update

No real surprises here, though there is some scary unbridled optimism presented.

Franks forming a committee in no surprise, as he's already announced that he's seeking to be elected to the seat (CD8) he resigned from in disgrace.

Republican Becker was a 2022 primary candidate for the CD7 seat held by Democrat Raul Grijalva.  She lost in the primary then but WAS adjudicated to be competent...to assist in her own defense.

She's seeking the seat again, but even R voters may not want that to be the primary qualification of one of their candidates.

The middle two are PACs which I don't normally cover here, but they share two things with Kari Lake's primary candidate committee -

1. The treasurer, Bradley Crate.

2. The mailing address.  From the FEC - 

My only question is a rather cynical one - how much of the money raised through the PACs will be funneled to Cheeto's defense team?

CD8: Toma's in, and in a blast from the past, so is Trent Franks

First up Toma.

From the website of the FEC -

This wasn't a closely-held secret as most observers expected him to get into the race and he filed a statement of interest with the AZSOS.

Now, the only question is when, or even if, Toma resigns as Speaker of the AZ House or his position in the House.

My guess is that nether will happen unless he feels he has a real shot at winning the primary.

Another entrant into the race is something of a surprise - former member of Congress Trent Franks.

From KJZZ, written by Camryn Sanchez, dated 11/1 -

Infamous former lawmaker Trent Franks enters congressional race

Former Congressman Trent Franks resigned from Congress in 2017 amid allegations of sexual harassment. Now, the West Valley Republican is launching a new campaign to win back his old seat.

Franks represented Congressional District 8 from 2003 until 2017, when he abruptly resigned after reports came to light that he offered a female employee $5 million to be a surrogate mother for his children. At the time, Franks acknowledged discussing surrogacy with a second female staffer. 

He resigned in late 2017 amid allegations of inappropriate behavior toward female subordinates.  He was replaced by Lesko 

I'm guessing he wants back in for two main reasons -

1. They've elected a Speaker who may be as socially extreme and radical as he is.

2. He resigned in late 2017, and if he wins next year's election, he'll take office again more than seven years later, in 2025.  In terms of Congressional staffers/interns, that's like four generations.  In other words, there are many female staffers/interns who haven't heard his "surrogacy" patter.

Blake Masters looks to go to D.C... as a member of the House

He won't be the last GOPer to declare their interest in the race to replace Debbie Lesko.

From Politico -

Blake Masters announces House bid in Arizona, forgoing another run for Senate

Former Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters announced Thursday that he would run for an open congressional seat in the Phoenix suburbs, changing course from a planned second run for Senate in 2024.

“I’m running for Congress, to fight for Arizona’s 8th,” Masters tweeted Thursday, along with a video featuring his family. “Biden has failed. We need Trump back. We need to stop inflation, Build the Wall, avoid WW3, and secure Arizona’s water future. We need to fight for our families.”

Neither Masters, nor anyone else, has yet to form a committee with the FEC for the run.  That'll change.

Federal Committee update

 

Democrat Nez is a former President of the Navajo Nation who's seeking the Congressional seat currently held by stone bigot Eli Crane.

In 2020, he was a Presidential elector for the eventual winner, Joe Biden.

Federal Committees update

From the website of the FEC -

Republican Lake is failed 2022 candidate for Governor who's running for the US Senate seat currently held by former Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.   The FEC filing only makes official something that all observers already knew.  My guess is that the only real difference this will make is that there won't be any more (planted?) stories about how she's "considering" a run.

Republican Winn is a former senior campaign staffer for current State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne.  She's running is CD6, currently held by Republican Juan Ciscomani, setting up a primary.

Republican Jasser is running in CD4 for the seat currently held by Democrat Greg Stanton.  He's best known as a Muslim who hates other Muslims.

Democrat Newman seems to be a quixotic candidate for POTUS.

Another blast form the (recent) past: Kari Lake is running for a U.S. Senate seat

Last month, Axios thought this poorly-kept secret was a big deal; now, it's Politico.

Former newscaster and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Governor (she lost in the general election, even though she is still insisting that she didn't).

From Politico -

Kari Lake to launch Arizona Senate bid next month

Arizona Republican Kari Lake will launch a Senate run as soon as early next month, according to three people familiar with her plans.

Lake, an ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump who refused to concede her narrow loss in Arizona’s governor race last year, has been hinting at a bid for months. She has been active in national politics since her 2022 loss and this week alone she’s headlining events in Iowa and Michigan.

Blast from the (recent) past: Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the Maricopa County SD2 seat

Former state legislator and failed 2022 candidate for AZ Secretary of State (she lost in the R primary) Michelle Ugenti-Rita is running for the 2nd district seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors.

From Maricopa County's website -

(Note: I'd link to the committee paperwork, but the County's hyperlink to that isn't working)

SD2 is currently held by R Thomas Galvin.  As of May, he formed a committee to run for re-election.

Water protection for AZ doesn't seem to be his thing.

Caveat:  I live in SD2, but have not decided who to vote for.

Masters rethinking a 2024 run for AZ's US Senate seat

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

By "rethinking" I mean "Peter Thiel's financial largesse has its limits and he has no wish to throw good money after bad...even in his quest to buy a Senate seat."

But that was too long for a headline, so... :)

From Vanity Fair -

Blake Masters Might Be Getting Cold Feet About A Second Run for Senate in Arizona: Report

Blake Masters, the far-right venture capitalist who ran and lost in a 2022 Senate election in Arizona, is having second thoughts about trying and potentially failing for a second time, The Daily Beast reported Sunday.

Toward the end of August, multiple outlets reported that Masters was virtually guaranteed to enter the race. An Arizona-based GOP strategist who’d spoken to Masters told Politico that he was “pretty decisively in.” Now—not so much.

Apparently, Cheeto told Masters that he wasn't going to defeat Cheeto's favored candidate, Kari Lake, but on this, I expect that Thiel has more influence with Masters.

Kari Lake is running for Senate; Axios is treating as big news, but as secrets go, it's a poorly kept one

Pointed at this by Taegan Goddard's Political Wire.

From Axios -

Scoop: Kari Lake prepares to enter Arizona Senate race

Former Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake is staffing up for a Senate campaign in anticipation of an October launch, making Arizona ground zero to replay — and relitigate — GOP losses in the last two elections.

Why it matters: A potential three-way battle, with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema running as an independent, will expose deep divisions in both parties on whether to appeal to their bases or independents in a critical 2024 battleground state.

• The race will have implications in the presidential campaign and give President Biden an opportunity to run against the "ultra MAGA" mindset that Lake represents, even if former President Trump isn't Biden's opponent in November 2024.
• Lake, who has not conceded her gubernatorial loss in 2022, is one of Trump's most ardent defenders and frequently amplifies the false election claims at the heart of the former president's most recent indictment.

Poll that says a 3rd party run by Kyrsten Sinema doesn't mean a victory for the GOP in the 2024 US Senate election

I don't believe it, but I'm going to leave this here.

From Noble Predictive Insights -

The Sinema Situation: Gallego's Edge and the Enigma of Sinema's Independent Run

Sinema's Third-Party Run Does Not Guarantee a GOP Victory in Arizona Senate Race

As the 2024 Arizona Senate race looms, recent public opinion polling data fromNoble Predictive Insights’ (NPI) – formerly OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) – latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) sheds light on some intriguing dynamics that challenge conventional political wisdom. Contrary to initial assumptions, the potential entry of Senator Kyrsten Sinema as a third-party candidate does not necessarily guarantee a GOP victory. The poll results indicate that Sinema faces challenges within her own party, which might make her path to victory more complex.

This AZPOP, conducted from July 13 – 17, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

Failed election deniers don't go away; they just run for a seat in the AZ lege

Failed candidate for Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS) Mark Finchem made noises about running for Maricopa County Recorder, which would have necessitated a move, sine he doesn't actually, you know *live* in Maricopa County.

Apparently, that aspiration has gone by the wayside.  He's now formed a committee for a run for a seat in the legislature.

From the AZSOS -

He may not actually live at that address, though.  Also from the AZSOS

From his 2022 financial disclosure -

That address goes to a condo in Phoenix.  He didn't always report that as his address, though.  From a previous disclosure -

Neither address is in the district he's running in. 

From the website of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission -

Oro Valley isn't in LD1; neither is Phoenix.

My guess is that Finchem is, like a certain other state senator (Republican election denier, of course), and is district shopping here.   His listed campaign address goes to a manufactured/mobile home.

The current state senator from LD1 is Ken Bennett, who has some election-denying cred of his own.

Democrat Daniel Valenzuela declares for Maricopa County Supervisor District 3

From KTAR -

Former Phoenix councilmember Daniel Valenzuela announces run for Maricopa County Supervisor

Former Phoenix City Councilmember Daniel Valenzuela announced Monday he is running for Maricopa County Supervisor District 3.

Republican supervisor Bill Gates announced in June he would be vacating the seat and would not be seeking reelection saying he wanted to pursue other opportunities.

Valenzuela, a Democrat, was elected to the city council in 2011 and left in 2018 to run for Phoenix mayor.

[snip]

Why he’s running

Valenzuela emphasized his past successes as a city councilmember including chairing the city’s two pension reform efforts, helping enact the city’s Anti-Discrimination Ordinance and being a leader on economic development and job creation.

“I have worked hard my entire life as a coalition builder and problem solver,” he said in a press release. “My family and I are excited to move forward with overwhelming support from first responders, community, business, non-profit and labor leaders.”

Valenzuela, or any D in that district, has an uphill battle, but a doable one.

From the website of Maricopa County Elections, voter registration totals -

[snip]

A LOT will depend on who the Rs nominate - if they nominate an election denier out of the Lake or Finchem school, that district may just flip.

More on the district, which has been trending purple recently, from Axios.

State level committee update

In 2024, the only AZ statewide offices on the ballot will be for the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC), hence the listings for ACC candidates.

From the Arizona Secretary of State (AZSOS) -

Note: While Little's AZSOS entry doesn't list a party affiliation, he's a trumpkin Republican.

Democrat Faraldo is a Phoenix-based attorney.

Democrat Tovar is a current member of the ACC running for re-election.

Republican Walden is an extremist and member of the Mesa Public Schools governing board.  She's been mentioned in a previous post by me.

Federal Committee update

Pastor is a current member of the Phoenix City Council.

Aguilar is a current member of the governing board of the Central Arizona Project.

Both are looking to replace Ruben Gallego in Congress, who's running for Senate.

Sawdy is mounting a campaign to replace Republican Debbie Lesko.

O'Donnell is running to replace Republican Juan Ciscomani.