Election season has started in AZ

 

The questions on each ballot will vary based on which jurisdiction/city one is in..

Mine were for a budget override and increase for Phoenix Union High School District, and given Dougie's propensity for using money to discourage school districts from requiring masks, it may be needed.

I voted "yes".

Election Night 2016

9:50 -

There were 19 school district-related ballot questions in Maricopa County.

Right now, it looks like 15 will pass, 3 will go down, and 1 is still to close to call.

This is actually much better than average here.



9:30 -

In Scottsdale, all incumbents are on their way to reelection.

9:21 -

It looks like the AZ lege will tighten.  My read on races right now:

AZSenate - 14 R, 13 D, 3 too close to call.  If all three races in the "too close to call" category go D, then control flips.  16 - 14 R seems more likely, but this is far from over.

AZHouse - 33 R, 26 D, 1 too close to call.  The Rs retain control.

9:20 -

The Maricopa County Sheriff's race has been called for Paul Penzone!

8:06 - early votes only:

Maricopa County Sheriff: Penzone up over Arpaio big
Maricopa County Recorder: Fontes up over Purcell
CAWCD - Arboleda, Graff, and Holway all in the top 5
LD18 legislature - Bowie (senate) and Epstein (house) ahead
LD28 Senate - Meyer slightly ahead of Brophy-McGee
US Sen - McCain thumping Kirkpatrick
CorpComm - Not looking good for Mundell or Chabin
LD6 - Bagley (D) and Allen (tin foil) - too close to call
Ballot measures -
     Prop 205 (legalizing recreation marijuana) - losing
     Prop 206 (raising minimum wage) - winning


...is shaping up to be a lot like election night 2000.  Florida will be keeping us holding our collective breath...

Once AZ results start coming in, this post will be updated, with an focus on statewide, legislative, Maricopa County, and Scottsdale races.

Election 2016: It's almost over

In case you haven't noticed the wall-to-wall (but oh-so selective) media coverage, the incessant TV and radio ads (and spots on other media), the late night comedy, the hate-filled shouting, or have simply avoided even opening your mailbox for the last month or so,

There's an election coming up on Tuesday.  

:)

While millions of Americans have already voted (full disclosure time: I am one of those millions), millions more will be voting Tuesday.

If you haven't already done so, please make sure you vote on Tuesday.

In addition to a race for president that features two main candidates who present the starkest difference between two candidates for that office in US history, there are scores, in fact, hundreds, of down ballot races that have even more effect on our daily lives that are also up for election.

If you don't know where your polling place is (AZ only) -

Arizona SOS' polling place locator is here (This one should include all polling places in all counties, so if your county isn't listed below, use this one. It works for me here in Maricopa County)

Maricopa County's polling place locator is here

Pima County's polling place locator is here

Coconino County Elections page, including a list of polling places, is here

Apache County Elections page, including a list of polling places, is here

Santa Cruz County polling places are listed here


Other things to keep in mind in Arizona:

If you have an early ballot, it can be dropped off at any polling place in your county on Tuesday, and it will be counted.

If you vote in a precinct other than your own, you will have to cast a provisional ballot and IT WON'T BE COUNTED.

If there is a long line at your polling place, report it to your county party, and if you want your vote to be counted, STAY IN LINE.  If an elections official encourages/suggests that you leave and come back later, this is an attempt at voter suppression.

Period.

Some primary surprises (and some "not surprises") on Tuesday...

Note: All results are tentative and subject to change as late-arriving mail in ballots and provisional ballots are counted.  Most races seem settled, though there are a few that may flip.  And at least a couple seem headed for recounts...

Note2: Results from Maricopa County-specific races are from the website of the Maricopa County Recorder; results from races that cover other counties or the entire state are from the website of the Arizona Secretary of State.

Note3: The geographic descriptions used are for reference only, to give a general idea of where a district is located.  They are not, nor are they meant to be, definitive descriptions of the geographic area covered by a particular district.


I actually think that the a few of the primary results will serve to help Democrats make some gains, but this is turning out to be a weird electoral cycle.

In other words, no predictions.


On the Democratic side...

...In CD2 (Tucson and Southern AZ), former legislator Matt Heinz defeated former legislator Victoria Steele.

...In LD7 (Northern AZ including the Navajo nation), current state legislator Jamescita Peshlakai defeated Steven Begay for the nomination for state senate.

...In LD26 (Tempe and West Mesa), a contentious primary resulted in Juan Mendez (Senate), Athena Salman and Isela Blanc (House) defeating David Lucier (Senate), Celeste Plumlee (incumbent), and Michael Martinez (House).  While the Democratic nominees are likely to win in November, it remains to be seen if some feathers (on both sides) are permanently ruffled.

...In LD27 (South Phoenix and SW Maricopa County), incumbent state senator Catherine Miranda defeated her stepdaughter Maritza Miranda Saenz for the Democratic nomination for state senate.  Catherine Miranda is so well-respected and personally popular that people are already lining up to take her on in 2018.

...In LD29 (West Phoenix), State Rep. Martin Quezada defeated incumbent State Sen. Lydia Hernandez, who is known as a Republican in everything but name.

...In LD30 (West Central Phoenix and Glendale), the three way race for two nominations for the House is still too close to call, with newcomer Ray Martinez in second place, 144 votes ahead of incumbent Jonathan Larkin.

...In LD9 (North and NW Tucson) friend and fellow blogger Pamela Powers Hannley won the second Democratic nomination for a House seat.

Congrats Pam!


On the Republican side...

...In the primary race for Maricopa County Recorder,  beleaguered incumbent Helen Purcell is ahead of apparent 9/11 Truther (based on some of his tweets) Aaron Flannery by 185 votes.  This one is close enough that a recount may be needed here, which would involve another beleaguered incumbent, Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan.

...In the primary race for the Republican nomination in CD5, state legislator (and renowned would-be tinhorn dictator) Andy Biggs is leading perennial candidate Christine Jones by 9 votes.  Regardless of how this one turns out, expect a recount here.  No matter how enthusiastically Biggs declares victory.

...In a bit of a surprise to many observers, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu won the Republican nomination in CD1.  He's a "colorful" character, so much so that the DCCC is already running TV spots in the race.

...In the primary race for Maricopa County School Superintendent, incumbent Don Covey came in a surprising third in a three way race.  And it wasn't even a close third...

Democrat Michelle Robertson awaits in November.

...In the primary race for the nomination for Desert Ridge Justice of the Peace (far northern Phoenix), incumbent Clancy Jayne came in third in the three way race.  He's not a liberal or even a moderate by any definition, but even Republicans consider him to be an "unpleasant person".

...In the primary race for the nomination for Maricopa County Sheriff, Joe Arpaio lapped the field, setting up a November battle with his 2012 challenger, Democrat Paul Penzone.

...In the primary race for the nomination for Moon Valley JP (north central Phoenix), political newcomer Andrew Hettinger more than doubled up former state legislator Carl Seel.  Seel is also regarded by many as an "unpleasant person".

...In the primary race for state senate in LD5 (Western and NW AZ), state legislator Sonny Borrelli (R-anger control issues) defeated former state senator Ron Gould (R - The South Will Rise Again!).  This was a race where most non-crossburning observers hoped both candidates would find a way to lose.

...In the primary race for state senate in LD18 (Ahwatukee, south Tempe, west Chandler), in an upset, Frank Schmuck defeated incumbent Jeff Dial.  Wiseass bloggers and headline writers all over the state just smiled a little wider.

Democrat Sean Bowie awaits in November.

...In the primary race for state house in LD1, dark money darling David Stringer is ahead of Chip Davis for the second nomination there.


However, as interesting as some of the races here may have been, none brought joy to the internet as did the defeat of Angela Corey, the Florida prosecutor who got George Zimmerman a complete walk for murdering a black man but was able to get 20 years for Marissa Alexander for NOT killing one.

She is one elected official that no one is going to miss when she's gone.

Early voting has started in Arizona...

...and while it is a primary election, all voters, even unaffiliated ones, can, and *should* participate...

From an email from the City of Mesa -

Early voting for the Aug. 30 Arizona Primary Election began on Aug. 3 and ends on Aug. 26.

Voters on the Permanent Early Voting List and voters wishing to receive an early ballot who are not registered with a declared political party must contact Maricopa County Elections at (602) 506-1511 to request which ballot they want to receive (Republican, Democrat, Green or non-partisan if it is a ballot for [non-partisan] candidates only). Voters, not registered with a party, who plan on going to the polls to vote can request the ballot they want upon arrival at the polling site.

While this email focused only on Maricopa County (home county of Mesa), the procedure is the same in other counties, except election questions should be directed to the relevant county's elections department. 

Maricopa County's list of early voting sites is here.

Pima County's list of early voting sites is here.

Pinal County's early voting sites are the offices of the Pinal County Recorder; the list of those offices is here.

Yavapai County's early voting sites are the offices of the Pinal County Recorder; the list of those offices is here.

Yuma County - early ballots can be dropped off at the county recorder's office here.

Santa Cruz County - contact the Elections Department at 520-375-7808 for early voting information.  The full list of voting centers for the election is here.  Note: Santa Cruz County's website is vague, but I do *not* believe these are also early voting locations.

Coconino County's list of early voting sites can be downloaded here.

For the other counties, please contact their elections departments for the relevant early voting information.

Maricopa County Election Fiasco: Was it an exercise in "Two Birds, One Stone" or was it an exercise in "All Politics Is Local"?

...Or maybe it was an exercise in "it's not what you know, it's *who* you know"...

Ya know, maybe Maricopa County Elections, in the persons of Helen Purcell (County Recorder) and Karen Osborne (Purcell's Director of Elections) didn't deliberately set out to disenfranchise minority and lower-income voters last week (something that they are still claiming they didn't do).

They have claimed that they determined the geographic distribution of the county's 60 polling places based on cost.

However, looking at some other data suggests that at least one factor, aside from cost, may have been part of the considerations involved.

This analysis from Phoenix' channel 5 points out the one that most people have already noted - the areas with the most polling sites tended to be whiter and more affluent than those areas with a dearth of polling sites.

Having said that, I'm not going to go there.

Well, not *too* much :)

Turns out that in addition to having the money to buy bigger houses and whiter neighbors, the residents of the areas looked upon with favor by Purcell et. al. have the money to buy themselves some neighbors that hold elected office.

To whit:

Of the 13 county-level elected officials*, both county-wide and board of supervisors (who are elected to represent districts), only three live more than four miles (by road, not "as the crow flies").

Don Covey, county school superintendent

Andy Kunasek, District 3 on the Board of Supervisors

Michael Jeanes, county clerk of courts

* = In Maricopa County, justices of the peace and constables are elected from 26 districts; for the sake of brevity, they aren't included here. They are "county-level elected officials" but there are too many of them.  Plus, as important as they are to general public in terms of day-to-day life, in terms of Maricopa County politics, the local PTB don't give them much more regard than the PTB give to the general public.


Of those three, two (Covey and Kunasek) are retiring.  Jeanes may be an elected official, but he is as low profile as low profile gets here.  For most people, *not* being able to name the clerk of courts is a good thing (I can, but I'm a political geek; you make the call about whether or not that's a "good" thing :) ).

Of the rest...

...County Sheriff Joe Arpaio lives less than three miles from not one, but two (2!) polling places (Fountain Hills and Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation)

...County Supervisor Denny Barney (District 1) lives just over two miles from his nearest polling place in Gilbert (as a bonus, Senate President Andy Biggs lives just over a mile from the same polling place; not a "county" official, but one with some influence nonetheless)

...County Attorney Bill Montgomery lives just two miles from his nearest polling place, also in Gilbert

...County Supervisor Clint Hickman (District 4) resides 3.3 miles from the nearest polling site in Goodyear

...County Assessor Paul Petersen resides less than a mile from the nearest polling place in Mesa (as a bonus, his predecessor Keith Russell, now a justice of the peace, lives even closer to the same polling place)

...the previously mentioned Andy Kunasek lives a little less than 4.5 miles from his closest polling place in Paradise Valley.  He's retiring, though.  On the other hand, County Supervisor Steve Chucri (District 2) resides a little more than a mile from the same polling place.  And he's not retiring.

...The soon-to be-retired Charles "Hos" Hoskins, Maricopa County Treasurer, resides a little less than 3.5 miles from his nearest polling place in Peoria

...County School Superintendent Don Covey, himself soon to be retired, "wins" this round (not that this is really a competition that anyone wants to win), living in far north Phoenix over 8 miles from the nearest polling place

...County Supervisor Steve Gallardo (District 5), the lone Democrat on this list, lives a shade under three miles from the nearest polling place

...County Clerk of Courts Michael Jeanes resides just over 4 miles from the nearest polling place in north Phoenix (not as far north as Covey, though)

...County Recorder Helen Purcell, the center of the uproar surrounding last week's fiasco (ya didn't think I was going to forget her, didja? ) lives all of 1.4 miles from the closest polling place to her in Phoenix


...Bonus time: Michele Reagan, Arizona's Secretary of State (and chief elections officer), lives 6.3 miles from the polling site in Phoenix nearest to her home in Scottsdale, which doesn't sound too bad.

Except for the fact that her father Michael, an elected official in his own right (justice of the peace) resides all of 1.6 miles from the closest polling place in north Scottsdale.


Now, I expect that most, if not all of the "dignitaries" listed above are on the Permanent Early Voters List (PEVL) and voted by mail in last week's election.

However, all but one of them live in mostly white and relatively affluent areas, and have mostly white and relatively affluent neighbors.

Meaning that not only do their neighbors get special treatment because of their skin color and the size of their bank accounts, they are accorded special treatment because of who they live near.

It's a bit of a "chicken or egg" question - do those folks live near elected officials because they (and the electeds) are affluent, or do the affluent like living near electeds?

Either way, the average Maricopa County resident ends up with the short end of the stick on Election Day...and every other day of the year.



My nominees for the two most questionably placed polling stations:

Pinnacle Peak Public Safety Substation, 23100 N. Lake Pleasant Road in Peoria and Cross of Glory Evangelical Lutheran Church, 10111 W. Jomax Road, also in Peoria.

Why?

Both sites are located in the same precinct, Lake Pleasant.*.

If the "cost" excuse was the truth, why waste money by having two polling locations in such proximity?

* - Actually, the recorder's website's district locator function indicates that the police substation is in the Zuni Hills precinct and that the church's address doesn't exist, but maps published by the recorder indicate that both are located in the Lake Pleasant Precinct (which is immediately north of Zuni Hills).


Notes:

All distances above are based on Googling the addresses.

All addresses are based on public record filed by the electeds in question.

Pssst! Didja hear? There's an election coming up in Scottsdale...

Two of them, actually...but they'll be on the same day...

Earlier today, I spotted two signs for an upcoming bond election in Scottsdale.  Not surprised by this, as I've been vaguely aware this has been on the horizon.

What *was* surprising was the fact that a closer look at the two signs reveal that one wasn't related to the Scottsdale bond questions.  Nope, one is related to a school district override election.

I don't have much information on either issue right now.

Information on the Scottsdale bonds election, from the City of Scottsdale -

The City of Scottsdale, Arizona (the “City”), will hold a Special Election, on Tuesday, November 5, 2013 for the purposes of:

1. Seeking approval of bonds for park improvements/community facilities, public safety, flood control and transportation and street upgrades in the principal amount not to exceed $212,100,000 (the estimated average tax rate for the proposed bond authorization is $0.2174 per $100 of secondary assessed valuation); and
2. Submitting to the voters as Question 5 the proposed potable water utility distribution franchise agreement, deemed beneficial to the City by the Scottsdale City Council in Resolution No. 9405.

Bond Question 1 seeks voter authorization to sell $50,400,000 general obligation bonds for parks, libraries and community facilities.

Bond Question 2 seeks voter authorization to sell $43,700,000 general obligation bonds for public safety.


Bond Question 3 seeks voter authorization to sell $19,000,000 general obligation bonds for neighborhood flood protection and storm sewers.


Bond Question 4 seeks voter authorization to sell $99,000,000 general obligation bonds for transportation, streets and trails.

Ballot Language for Questions 1 through 4

Questions 1 through 4 will be presented to the qualified voters of the City of Scottsdale in an informational pamphlet.  The pamphlet will be mailed to the households of all registered voters prior to the start of early voting.  Bonds issued pursuant to Questions 1 through 4 will result in a property tax increase sufficient to pay annual debt service on the bonds.


Arguments supporting or opposing one or more of the bond questions (Questions 1 through 4) may be submitted for publication in the informational pamphlet.  Each argument cannot exceed 300 words in length and must contain the original, notarized signature of each person sponsoring it.  The residence or post office address and phone number of each signer must be on the argument, but will not be printed in the informational pamphlet.  If an argument is sponsored by an organization, the original, notarized signatures of two executive officers of the organization are required.  If an argument is sponsored by a political committee, the original, notarized signature of the committee’s chair or treasurer is required.  A payment of $100.00, to offset a portion of the cost of paper and printing the argument, must accompany the filing of each argument.


Arguments must be submitted by 5:00 p.m., Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at the following location:

Scottsdale City Clerk’s Office,
3939 N. Drinkwater Boulevard, Scottsdale, Arizona 85251

Question 5 asks voters to consider whether a franchise shall be granted to EPCOR Water Arizona Inc. and Chaparral City Water Company to maintain and operate a potable water distribution system in the City of Scottsdale, and future additions thereto, in accordance with the agreement submitted by the Mayor and City Council in Resolution No. 9405.
 

Ballot Language for Question 5

Proposed Franchise Agreement

For more information, please call the Scottsdale City Clerk at (480) 312-2411.

The City of Scottsdale will publish an informational pamphlet with pro and con arguments; when available, it should be on their Elections webpage, linked above.


Information on the school district override election from the Scottsdale Unified School District -

They have a full presentation on the override here, but one of the slides is a perfect illustration of where the lege's attitude toward public education has brought Arizona -

SUSD will host a series of informational sessions on the override -

	September 12 – Coronado Learning Community Coronado High School - from 6-8 p.m. 7501 E. Virginia Ave. Scottsdale 85257		September 30 – Arcadia Learning Community Arcadia High School - from 6-8 p.m. 4703 E. Indian School Road Phoenix 85018

September 17 – Chaparral Learning Community Chaparral High School - from 6-8 p.m. 6935 E. Gold Dust Ave. Scottsdale 85253

Full disclosure time:

Scottsdale election: I don't have a position on any of the bond questions as yet, and am leaning toward a "no" vote on the franchise agreement, out of general cynicism, but will find out more before actually casting my vote on any of the questions.

School district override:  Yes.  Duh.

AZ Ballot counting update

Full Congressional and state-level race results can be found here, from the Arizona Secretary of State.

In CD2, D Ron Barber has opened up a 943 vote lead over R Martha McSally.  It's not enough to declare Barber the winner, but this is his largest lead thus far.

In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema has been declared the winner over R Vernon Parker; the margin there is currently Sinema ahead by 7146 votes.

In the race for the 2nd seat from LD28, D Eric Meyer has opened up a lead of 1523 votes over R Amanda Reeve.  This one isn't *quite* over, but this late in the post-election counting cycle, that's a pretty big margin for someone to overcome, particularly in a relatively small area like a legislative district.

The race for US Senate between D Richard Carmona and R Jeff Flake has reached the point where there isn't even a spark of hope left - Carmona is still behind by more than 81K votes.


Full Maricopa County-level results can be found here, and a summary of Wednesday's ballot counting activity in Maricopa County can be found here, both from the Maricopa County Recorder.

In Maricopa County, there are approximately 27K early ballots and 114K provisional ballots remaining to be counted.

All but one race looks to be effectively over - D Paul Penzone trails R Joe Arpaio in the Maricopa County Sheriff by almost 87K votes and Heather Macre leads Jean McGrath for the fifth and final open spot on the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project by more than 3500 votes.

The one race that doesn't look to be decided is the race to serve out the remainder of the term in the office of Arrowhead Justice of the Peace.  Those are all write ballots because the former JP there, Phillip Woolbright, was removed from office after the deadline for candidates to submit nominating petitions.

The official canvass of results is supposed to be reported on Monday, November 26, but unofficial reports (means "stuff people have told me, people who aren't on the Recorder's staff, but are informed about developments in this area") that we may not find out the winner in the race until December.

I have some confidence that we may know the winner here by the 26th, but we'll see.

Ballot counting updates: Saturday, November 10

I could not find anything that specifically listed the number of ballots counted today, but since some of the races have changed, obviously, they've been doing some counting.

...In the race for US Senate, R Jeff Flake's lead over D Rich Carmona has grown to a little over 76K vote.  The tiniest spark of hope that existed that this race would turn around is fading.

...In CD1, D Ann Kirkpatrick's lead over R Jonathan Paton now stands at 6246 votes, which is down 18 votes from yesterday.  Still seems like she is going to hang on here.

...In CD2, D Ron Barber's lead over R Martha McSally stands at 289 votes.  As with yesterday's report, this one is still far too close to call.

...In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema's lead over R Vernon Parker stands at 4710 votes, an increase of 642 votes.  The trend and the margin still favor Sinema here; it isn't over, but this contest is on the clock.

...In LD28, D Eric Meyer has opened up a 907-vote lead over R Amanda Reeve for the 2nd House seat in the district, an increase of 224 votes.  This race isn't over, but the trend favors Meyer.

- All state-level results can be found here.

...In the race for CAWCD (the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project), the race for the fifth and final seat that is up for election has flipped, with Heather Macre opening up a 977 vote lead over Jean McGrath.  Yesterday, McGrath was ahead by 94 votes.

...In the race for Maricopa County Sheriff, R Joe Arpaio's lead over D Paul Penzone has closed to a still-daunting 84025.  That's a decrease of 1645 votes, but the pace of change isn't nearly fast enough right now to flip the race.

- All Maricopa County-level results can be found here.

If there are any changes tomorrow, I'll update...

AZ's uncounted ballots update

There isn't much to update.  The AZ SOS' press release on the progress toward counting the remaining provisional and early ballots reflects only the work in Maricopa County, but since Maricopa County has more uncounted ballots than the rest of the state combined, it works.

Yesterday, there were 359K uncounted ballots in Maricopa County - 344K early and 115K provisional.

Those numbers have been reduced to 237,359 and 115K, respectively.

There are a few races where the uncounted ballots could impact the outcomes, once all of the ballots are counted.

Statewide races -

R Jeff Flake still has a sizeable lead over D Rich Carmona in the race for US Senate, but the lead is down to less than 75K votes.  Given that most of the provisional ballots seem to be from Latino and Democratic-heavy areas, there is still a spark of hope here.

Congressional races -

In CD2, D Ron Barber is slightly ahead (586 votes) of R Martha McSally.  This one is going back and forth and it may be well into next week before the victor is determined.

In CD1, D Ann Kirkpatrick's lead over R Jonathan Paton stands at 6264 votes.  She is likely to hold on here.

In CD9, D Kyrsten Sinema has opened up a lead of 4068 votes over R Vernon Parker.  I don't think this race is called yet, but the margin and trend both favor Sinema.

State legislative race -

In LD28, D Eric Meyer has a 683-vote lead over R Amanda Reeve for the 2nd House seat in that district.  The trend favors Meyer, but this one is a long way from over.

Maricopa County races -

In the Sheriff's race, R Joe Arpaio has an 85670-vote lead over D Paul Penzone.  Even if the uncounted ballots skew heavily toward Penzone (which I kind of expect), Arpaio's bacon will almost certainly be saved by spoiler "independent" Mike Stauffer, who received nearly 45K votes.

In the race for CAWCD (Central Arizona Water Conservation District, aka the board of directors of the Central Arizona Project), Heather Macre is 94 votes behind Jean McGrath for fifth place in a race where the top five vote-getters win seats on the board.  If Macre pulls ahead in the final count, Arizonans will win twice - Macre is a hard-working subject matter expert who would be a supreme asset on the board; McGrath is most assuredly *not*; her loss would be a case of "addition by subtraction".

In the race for Justice of the Peace in the Arrowhead Justice Precinct, we are still awaiting results, but that isn't due to the uncounted provisional/early ballots issue - that was a race where all of the candidates were write-in candidates, and those take a while to count.

The latest reports have the Maricopa County Recorder's office working through the weekend and the holiday on Monday, so the outcomes of the various close races, especially here in Maricopa County, should be clearer on Tuesday.

Uncounted ballots and Election 2012: Arizona looking to out-Florida Florida

Arizona is back in the national news, and not in a good way.

Reports of voter suppression in Latino- and Democratic-heavy districts (using any excuse to funnel voters toward provisional ballots, with the resultant standing in longer lines on Election Day and a lower likelihood that the vote will count after Election Day) and an official total of more than 631K uncounted ballots remaining have AZ receiving the sort of media attention normally reserved for Florida and its "hanging chads".

The US Senate and Corporation Commission races look to be over, but they are close enough to switch (currently showing as R victories).

In addition to the statewide races, there are enough outstanding ballots in Maricopa County to affect the sheriff's race here.

The press release from the AZ SOS -

Ballot Processing – County Update – Thursday, Nov. 8 Edition

PHOENIX - Secretary Bennett has announced that as of Thursday afternoon, there are an estimated 631,274 early and provisional ballots statewide that are yet to be processed and counted.
A state canvass to certify official election results for federal, statewide and legislative races is scheduled for Dec. 3.
Voters who cast a “conditional provisional” ballot (individuals had insufficient identification when they went to vote at a polling place) have five business days, or until the end of Wednesday, Nov. 14, to return to their county elections office with proper ID.
***Yesterday we erroneously stated the deadline for voters who cast a provisional conditional ballot to provide ID was Nov. 13. The date is actually November 14, due to Veterans Day.***
Individual county breakouts are attached.

County	Uncounted early ballots	Provisional ballots yet to be verified
Apache	845	1,612
Cochise	12,504	1,828
Coconino	5,700	5,300
Gila	2,134	1,285
Graham	0	462
Greenlee	0	2
La Paz	395	415
Maricopa	344,000	115,000
Mohave	2,680	4,228
Navajo	3,301	2,285
Pima	54,541	26,194
Pinal	20,000	7,437
Santa Cruz	839	909
Yavapai	4,700	3,000
Yuma	7,439	2,239
Ballots to be counted totals	459,078	172,196
GRAND TOTAL	631,274

Locally, a mixed bag for Democrats and Independents

Note: all Maricopa County results below should be considered in the light of the fact that somewhere near 400K ballots remain to be counted, with approximately half being mail-in ballots that were dropped off at polling places and provisional ballots that were filled out on Tuesday.

And based on reports of voter suppression/general incompetence on the part of Maricopa County Elections (it's one of the two; I'll wait for an honest investigation to determine which it was) in Democratic and/or Latino-heavy precincts, those provisional ballots could affect a few races.

Maricopa County results page here.
AZ SOS results page here.

- Republican Joe Arpaio is 88K votes ahead of Democratic challenger Paul Penzone in his quest for another term in charge of the Maricopa County Slot Machine Sheriff's Office.  It looks over, but the late count could make this one interesting.  Arpaio spent roughly 10X more than Penzone on this race.

- Bill Montgomery won election to a "full term" as Maricopa County Attorney, defeating Libertarian challenger Michael Kielsky 74% to 26%.  Kielsky may have been completely swamped, but he still outperformed my expectation that he would garner ~25% of the vote.

"Full term" is in quotes because Montgomery looks to be setting up a run at AZ Attorney General in 2014.  If he does go for it, he'll have to resign from office due to AZ's "resign to run" law.  The incumbent AG, Republican Tom Horne, has issues with campaign finance violations, hiring his girlfriend to a taxpayer-funded job, and leaving the scene of an accident.  If he runs for a second term, he'll be vulnerable in both the primary and the general elections.

- Republican Jerry Weiers won a term as mayor of Glendale over Democrat Manny Cruz, leading by 4K votes.  While Weiers was and is expected to win, the 4K difference is close enough to make the late count interesting.

- Democrat Terry Goddard, former AZ AG and nominee for Governor, won a seat on the governing board of the Central Arizona Project.  Democrat Heather Macre is in sixth in the race to fill five seats, approximately 3700 votes out of 5th place.  Besides Goddard, the other apparent winners are Lisa Atkins, Pam Pickard, Guy Carpenter, and Jean McGrath.  Atkins, Pickard, and Carpenter are Republicans, but they made various pre-election lists of "less bad" or "Republican but qualified" candidates; McGrath is so tea party that she doesn't *drink* the tea, she mainlines it.

- One piece of good news on the school board front: Mesa wingnut Jerry Walker lost his bid for a seat on the Mesa Unified board.  I got to see him in action when he was running wild on the governing board of the Maricopa County Community College District.  His loss is a gain for Mesa and its schools, teachers, and students.

- In the US Senate race, Democrat Rich Carmona is behind Republican Jeff Flake by approximately 83K votes.  As with the Maricopa County sheriff race above, this one looks over, but the late count could cause some heart palpitations in R land.

- In CD1, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick is leading Republican Jonathan Paton by 6500 votes.  Given that in the days leading up to Election Day, it looked as if Paton was pulling ahead, this will be a bit of an upset if it holds up.

- In CD2, Republican Martha McSally looks to have a major upset in the making over Democratic incumbent Ron Barber, leading by ~1300 votes.  Stay tuned on this one.

- In CD9, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is holding a slim 2100 vote lead over Vernon Parker.  This one should hold up, but this is another one to keep an eye on as the late count comes in.

- As for the Arizona Corporation Commission, the Republicans will likely completely control it.  The Democrats, Marcia Busching, Sandra Kennedy, and Paul Newman, are well behind the Republicans, Susan Bitter Smith, Bob Burns, and Bob Stump, in the race.

- The AZ Senate looks as if it will turn out to have 13 Ds and 17 Rs. 

Biggest (and most pleasant) surprise:  In LD26 (Central and North Tempe, West Mesa), it looks as if Democrat Ed Ableser will defeat Republican Jerry Lewis.  While I supported Ableser, I thought that Lewis would have enough lingering goodwill from his defeat of Russell Pearce in Pearce's 2011 recall election to win in the D-leaning district.  This is one time I happy with being wrong.

Best news:  Republican bully Frank Antenori is GONE, and it wasn't even that close.  Democrat Dave Bradley is leading the LD10 race by more than 5K votes.

Worst news:  Democratic state representative Tom Chabin lost his bid for the LD6 state senate seat to Republican state representative Chester Crandell.  LD6 is a Republican-heavy district, but it was hoped that Chabin's experience and name recognition would propel him past the finish line first.  It didn't.

- The AZ House will probably have 23 or 24 Ds and 37 or 36 Rs. 

Right now, the race for one of the LD28 seats is too close to call.  Incumbent R Kate Brophy McGee will win one of the seats, while incumbents Eric Meyer (D) and Amanda Reeve (R) are fighting it out for the second seat, with Meyer current leading by 175 votes.  This one will take a while to sort out.

A race that could switch is in the Tucson-area LD9, where Democrat Mohur Sarah Sidwa is trailing Republican Ethan Orr by ~2600 votes for the second House seat in the district.  Democrat Victoria Steele looks to have won the other seat.  Still, in a district race, a 2600-vote margin will be tough to overcome in the late count.

- On the ballot propositions:

 In great, but not terribly surprising news, Proposition 120 went down to defeat by more than 2-1 margin.  If passed, it would have declared Arizona has supreme jurisdiction over all air, water, and land in the state.  Basically, it was a measure to exempt the state from all federal laws and regulations. 

While I voted against it, and remain opposed to it, toward the end of the cycle I was kind of hoping it would pass.

Because federal judges, like everyone else, need comic relief occasionally. :)

In good, but with bad overtones, news, Proposition 121 (the "jungle", or "top two" primary question) failed by a similar margin of more than 2-1.  This is good, because it was a short-sighted and poorly-written measure, but there was a lot of "dark" money spent by the Republicans who opposed the measure.  If this is seen more as a victory for big money than for a defeat for bad policy, it will be back.

In just plain bad news, Proposition 204 was soundly defeated, not by the margin of the above questions, but still by a lot.  204 would have extended the 1% increase in the state sales taxes that was passed a couple of years ago and dedicated the money to funding education in Arizona.

- In Pinal County, embattled Republican Sheriff Paul Babeu easily won re-election.  Earlier this year, a scandal where Babeu was alleged to have threatened to use his influence to have an ex-boyfriend deported broke and forced him from a race for Congress.  He chose to run for re-election for sheriff instead.  He emerged from a crowded Republican primary field and won the general election by 16K votes, or 20 percentage points.

- In Navajo County, Sylvia "6000 Years" Allen, a soon-to-be former state senator, looks to be cruising to victory in the race for the District 3 seat on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.

Live blogging the results

...Apologies to readers.  Due to a technical issue, I was unable to access the internet while at the Democratic Party gathering in downtown Phoenix.  Will post pics in a later post...

6:27 - Reports still rolling of VERY long lines in Tempe, Mesa, and South Phoenix in heavily D or Latino areas.  The problem seems to be the provisional ballot scam/shortage that many polling places are experiencing here in Maricopa County.  Also, there is a report of an Assistant US Attorney/DOJ contingent flying to Yuma to look into issues there.

6:19 - Updating the most watched contest of the night:  Ball State is leading Toledo in the first quarter of their game, 7 - 0.

6:15 - GA called for Romney.  Again, no surprises yet.  Florida looks like it will be interesting.  "Interesting" is a euphemism for "f*cked up".

6:02 - CNN calls CT, DE, MA, DC, IL, MD, ME (3 of 4 electoral votes; 1 is still too close to call) and RI for Obama; OK for Romney.  Also call FL-Sen for incumbent Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack (IV or V, can't remember right now).

5:41 - CNN calls SC for Romney; Obama ahead by 63K votes in FL.

5:32 - CNN shows Donnelly leading Mourdock (the "rape babies are God's gift" guy) by 2%/~6500 votes.

5:25 - More reports of elevated totals of provisional ballots, especially in Latino-heavy areas.

5:24 - CNN calls IN for Romney.  Not a surprise - a very red state.

5:12 p.m. - They aren't calling FL yet (not by a long shot), but early results (4% of precincts reporting) show Obama up 55% - 45%.  For IN-Sen, the current results show Mourdock (R) ahead of Donnelly (D) by 1000 votes...


5:00 p.m. - First results from VA (via CNN) - CNN calls VT for Obama and KY for Romney.


4:48 p.m. - No results yet, but...

While there haven't been reports yet of any significant voter suppression activities in Maricopa County (stressing the "yet"), there have been reports of general incompetence/poor preparation on the part of poll workers manning some polling places, particularly in South Phoenix and SW Maricopa County.

Apparently, in the event of the slightest bit of confusion, poll workers in those areas default to "oh, just fill out a provisional ballot".

Even if those are counted, it takes much longer to count those than normal day-of and early ballots.

Live blogging Election Night

Tonight, I'll be live blogging from the Arizona Democratic Party HQ and the gathering in downtown Phoenix as election returns come in from across the country.  Here are a few of the races that I'll be watching until Arizona results start coming in; if there are any races that people think should be added to the list, leave a note in a comment -

Senate		Candidate		Candidate
Indiana		Donnelly D		Mourdock R
Wisconsin		Baldwin D		Thompson R
Ohio		Brown D		Mandel R
Pennsylvania		Casey D		Smith R
Virginia		Kaine D		Allen R
Connecticut		Murphy D		McMahon R
Mass.		Warren D		Brown R
Missouri		McCaskill D		Akin R
Texas		Sadler D		Cruz R
Congress
WI 7		Kreitlow D		Duffy R
WI 2		Derban D		Ryan R
FL 18		Murphy D		West R
MN 6		Graves D		Bachmann R

Voting *for* a candidate: a guide

During an election cycle, particularly a long one like a presidential cycle, it's easy to lose sight of why we support this candidate or that candidate, losing ourselves in being against the "other".

The reasons why we support candidate "A" become subsumed by the fact that candidate "B" is an arrogant, avaricious plutocrat or the reasons that we support candidate "X" are drowned in the glare of candidate "Y's" bigotry, corruption, etc.

As easy as voting"against" can be, voting "for" is far more satisfying.  I've been voting for a while now.  Not gonna say how long, but the first presidential ticket that received my vote was Mondale/Ferraro.  You do the math. :)

While most of my votes have been "for" a candidate, too many have been for the "less bad" candidate.  The most satisfying votes that I've ever cast were for Harry Mitchell.  While he is nowhere near liberal enough to suit me politically, he based his positions, and his votes in office, on what he thought was in the best interests of his constituents.

Voting for him in 2010 when David Schweikert took advantage of the Republican wave that year to oust an icon was no less satisfying than voting for him in 2006 when Mitchell first won a seat in Congress.

Having said all of that, here's my "positive" take on my votes this year, why I voted "for" particular candidate.  There were lots of  "for" candidates this year -


- Barack Obama for President - I enthusiastically voted for him in 2008, and proudly did so again this year. 

In the face of intractable opposition (to the point that Republicans in Congress voted against bills that they had sponsored themselves if Obama supported them), he led the start of real healthcare reform, started winding down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, fought for tax cuts for the working and middle classes, saved the American auto industry, and oversaw the end for Osama Bin Laden. 

To be sure, there were a few missteps, but even most of those just showed that the man is simply human (stay off the pitcher's mound, Mr. President :) ).

My biggest complaint with him is that he hasn't be liberal enough in his governance.

However, that dovetails with the biggest reason to vote to give him a second term - he has governed.  Not ruled, not dictated, not anything but do his job.

He has worked *for* his constituents, all of them, not just those who agree with him or give him campaign contributions.

You may not agree with everything he's done in office; I like and support him, and even *I* don't agree with everything that the Obama administration has done. 

However, he has done what he has done out of concern for the best interests of his constituents, which should be the motivation behind the positions and actions of *all* elected officials.

As such, he has more than earned a second term in the oval office.

Picture courtesy CNN

I promise that the rest of these will be much shorter.  :)

- Dr. Rich Carmona for U.S. Senate - This may be his first foray into electoral politics, but it's not his first foray into public service.  Not hardly.

In his storied career, he has been an Army medic (in Vietnam), a SWAT team leader, and Surgeon General of the United States.  His life story is the archetypal American success story - born to immigrant parents, worked to obtain an education, lifted himself out of poverty, and has spent his adult life in public service of one sort or another.

In short, he's the sort of person who *should* be in office because he has been where most of us have been.

Carmona talking to a supporter in Tempe, September 15

- Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Congress (CD9) - *Not* her first foray into electoral politics, but it's hardly her first foray into public service.  Like Carmona above, she bootstrapped her way out of poverty with education and hard work, and like Carmona, she has dedicated her life to serving the public.  In her case, she has been a social worker, attorney, and educator.

And like Carmona, she is the kind of person who should be in office representing us because she has been and is us.

Sinema at a candidate forum in July in Tempe

- Katie Hobbs (Senate) and Lela Alston and Chad Campbell (House) for the Arizona legislature from LD24 - They are each experienced, dedicated, intelligent, hard-working, and caring public servants and have earned another term in office.

(L-R) Hobbs, Alston, and Campbell at the LD24 Clean Elections forum in Phoenix, September 25th

Bonus legislative race:  Ed Ableser (Senate) and Juan Mendez and Andrew Sherwood (House) for the Arizona legislature from LD26 -  While they were not on my ballot (I live in LD24), all three are friends of mine and people who I respect.  They are active members of the community and have and will work for the betterment of the community.

 

 

(Standing L-R) Mendez, Sherwood, and Ableser at the LD26 Chili Cook-Off, April 28

 

- Paul Penzone for Maricopa County Sheriff - Penzone is a career cop who has based his career on *involving* the entire community, not demonizing* part of it for personal and political gain.  When he is elected, he'll bring a level of professionalism and integrity to the MCSO that hasn't been seen there in decades.

Penzone in Tempe, April 28 (same event as in the above pic, only a couple of hours earlier)

- Marcia Busching, Sandra Kennedy, and Paul Newman for the Arizona Corporation Commission - While the members of this trio bring a variety of experiences and backgrounds to the table, but they share a focus on ensuring Arizona's energy future.

Are all of the above candidates Democrats?  Yup.

But before the above is dismissed as "partisan hackery", one should ask if all of the above candidates are the "best" candidates. 

The answer to that question is a resounding "Yes".

Their primary concern has been (in the case of previous or current officeholders) or will be (in the case of future officeholders) the best interests of the people that they represent.

I don't expect to agree with them on every single issue, but I do expect that every person who "represents" me to hold positions, craft policies, and cast votes based on the best interests of their constituents.

And before anyone begins thinking that I've gone soft, an "against" post will follow this one.  :)

The 2012 primaries: one major disappointment, a minor one, but otherwise, no real surprises

Tuesday's primaries are over, and the post-game analysis is in full swing.  As I wasn't able to live blog the results last night due to being otherwise occupied (at David Schapira's election night gathering in Tempe.  Hard to type when it is too dark to see the keyboard... :) ).

There were a couple of disappointments, but the only surprises Tuesday were in margins of victory (or loss, depending on your perspective), not in end results.

First, the disappointments -

- The biggest disappointment of the evening was, of course, David Schapira's second place finish, behind Kyrsten Sinema, in the Democratic primary in CD9.  He ran a positive and energetic campaign, earned the respect of many people who had never heard of him before this campaign (and reinforced the respect of the many people who *had* heard of him), and has a bright future despite this one loss, the first in his electoral career.

- A minor disappointment, but not a surprise, was the ability of LD23 R state reps John Kavanagh and Michelle Ugenti to fend off the challenge of Jennifer Petersen, a member of the Scottsdale school district governing board.  Petersen has a reputation as a pragmatic public servant, ergo, she had almost no chance of getting through a Republican primary.  Her north Scottsdale district used to send a highly-respected moderate R to the lege in the person of Carolyn Allen.  Now, the most "moderate" is State Sen. Michelle Reagan, and she has gone hard to the right, probably in preparation for an expected Congressional or statewide run.  The winner of the CD9 race in November, regardless of partisan affiliation, should probably start oppo research on her, at just about the time that the polls close.


Now, the (mostly pleasant) surprises -

- In the LD25 Senate R primary, disgraced former state senator Russell Pearce lost big to Mesa businessman Bob Worsley in his bid to return to the senate.  He has now lost a recall election by double digit percentage points, where he argued that if only Republicans could've voted in it (like, say, as in a primary), he would have won.  Well, he got the primary that he wanted, and...he lost by double digit percentage points.

- The other Pearce, Lester, lost his primary race for the 2nd District seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors to businessman Steve Chucri.  It was by an equally resounding margin (double digits, baby!).

- Pearce ally John Fillmore lost his bid for the LD16 state senate R nomination to Pearce foe Rich Crandall.

- In the one victory for the Pearce machine, Sylvia Allen, currently in the state senate, won her primary race for the Republican nomination for the 3rd District seat on the Navajo County Board of Supervisors.  She won with 80% of the vote, but her opponent ran as a $500 Exemption candidate, while she had the thousands of dollars that she transferred from the legislative campaign committee.

- In the R primary for US Senate, it wasn't surprising to see Jeff Flake defeat Wil Cardon, nor even to do so soundly.  However, Flake didn't just win soundly - he absolutely thumped Cardon, gaining more than three times as many votes as Cardon. 

Damn!

- In Pinal County, embattled Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu held off multiple challengers for the R nomination, which in itself isn't much of a surprise - he was expected to win a plurality of the votes because the other candidates would split the anti-Babeu vote.  What is surprising is that Babeu got 61% of the vote.  The other three candidates combined didn't equal his total.

- In the LD24 D primaries, Katie Hobbs (Senate) and Lela Alston and Chad Campbell (House) easily turned aside the challenges from Ken Cheuvront (Senate) and his mom Jean and Tom Nerini (House), respectively.  While Hobbs was clearly the better candidate in her race, Cheuvront had money and name recognition on his side, so Hobbs' margin of victory was a bit of a surprise (>20 percentage points).

- In the CD6 R primary, freshman Congressman David Schweikert defeated fellow freshman Ben Quayle.  As a Democrat, I viewed that race much like I viewed the 2000 World Series between the Yankees and the Mets as a Red Sox fan - I hoped both would lose.  It didn't work out that way, but at least one lost. :)

- In the City of Scottsdale's mayoral race, incumbent Jim Lane received the most votes, which was no surprise.  What was surprising was his margin of victory - he gained a majority of votes cast, easily avoiding a November runoff against one of his challengers - businessman/community activist John Washington or businessman Drew Bernhardt.


Democratic primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county)..
Republican primary results from Maricopa County are here (state and federal) and here (county).
Other party and non-partisan results from Maricopa County are here.
Results from the AZ Secretary of State are here.

Primary Ballot Time - 2012

Well, for those who vote by mail, this week was a big week - ballots for the August primary election have started hitting mailboxes across the state.

Here's mine -

In the contested races that are visible in the pic, I voted for David Schapira for Congress (more on that below), Katie Hobbs for State Senate, and Chad Campbell and Lela Alston for State House.  On the other side of the ballot, it was Paul Penzone for Maricopa County Sheriff, John Washington for Mayor of Scottsdale, and Denny Brown for Scottsdale City Council (so far, I'm single-shotting Brown, but we can vote for up to three candidates in that race.)

As for the race for Congress -

While all three candidates have their good points, and all are basically on the right side of the "big issues", only one will do the best job of representing the Ninth Congressional District. That one is David Schapira. He is a "what you see is what you get" kind of candidate - honest, direct, and straightforward. His primary concern is working to make this a better community, by supporting education, health care opportunity, small business, and all of the things that help make a community a *home*. I'm proud to call him my state senator and prouder still to call him a friend.

He will be Arizona's next great Congressman.

CD8 Live blogging results

...And the first results are in...

...8:02 p.m. - Cochise County and Pinal County are the first to report numbers (33 precincts out of 352 overall) -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 12,811
Ron Barber (D) - 11,165
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 693


...8:12 p.m.  - Precincts from Pima coming in now.  Looks like early ballots, but I'm not absolutely sure of that...

Jesse Kelly (R) - 67,409
Ron Barber (D) - 80,403
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,837


...8:16 p.m. - Santa Cruz County numbers coming in now...

Jesse Kelly (R) - 68,093
Ron Barber (D) - 81,381
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,879


...8:31 p.m. - More results -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 68,144
Ron Barber (D) - 81,417
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,880


...8:36 p.m. - More results, and as with the last update, the changes aren't large ones -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 70,637
Ron Barber (D) - 83,960
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 3,950

...8:56 p.m. -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 73,739
Ron Barber (D) - 86,095
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 4,079


...9:01 p.m. -

Jesse Kelly (R) - 77,286
Ron Barber (D) - 90,513
Charlie Manolakis (Green) - 4,185


9:09 p.m. - OK, I'm finally breaking down and calling it for Barber. 50% of the precincts in, the outstanding precincts are from D-friendly Pima County, and Barber is hovering at just under 53% of the vote.

It may get a little closer, but Barber won't go below 51%.

If there are any significant changes, I'll update tomorrow.  Good night!

Maricopa County Elections 2012: Already all but over

Last week, I put up a post on the nine Congressional and 30 legislative races; today, the focus is on Maricopa County.

Though I don't know why I bother - all but a couple of the races are already over (one candidate only) or will be decided in the primary (uncompetitive districts).

The list of Maricopa County primary candidates, pending withdrawals/challenges, is here.
Maricopa County voter registration numbers, by supervisorial district, are here.
Maricopa County voter registration numbers, by justice of the peace/constable precinct. are here.


County-wide voter reg numbers -

	Republican	Democrats	Independents
Maricopa County	705576	516519	637721

The races for all but one county-wide office are effectively over -

County Assessor Keith Russell, County Recorder Helen Purcell,  County School Superintendent Don Covey, and County Treasurer Charles Hoskins, Republicans one and all, are completely unopposed - no challengers in either the primary or the general election.  In addition, County Attorney Bill Montgomery (R) is facing only a token opponent, Libertarian Michael Kielsky, in the general election.  No Democrat filed for the race, so Kielsky will get 20 - 25% of the vote, but that's it.

One race, the race for County Sheriff, promises to be far more interesting than all of the other races combined -

Democrats Paul Penzone and John Rowan and Independent (and former Republican) Mike Stauffer have all filed signatures to take on embattled Republican incumbent Joe Arpaio.  It will be an uphill battle (look at the county-wide numbers, above), but with the bright spotlight of federal investigations into his conduct in office, that hill isn't as steep as in years past.


Supervisor races

Voter reg numbers -

	Republican	Democrats	Independents
Supervisor District 1	158594	110194	146475
Supervisor District 2	195257	98816	148096
Supervisor District 3	141073	98337	113625
Supervisor District 4	167544	107728	139047
Supervisor District 5	43108	101444	90478

In SD1, the race is over - only Republican Denny Barney filed to run for the seat currently held by Fulton Brock, who isn't running for reelection because of a family-related scandal (wife and daughter boinking an underaged student/family friend.  Note: "boinking" is a euphemism.  You can figure out what it means :) ).

In SD2, while there will be a general election race (Democrat David Ortega of Scottsdale filed for a run), the voter registration disparity favoring the Republicans means that the R primary between Steve Chucri and Lester Pearce will produce the likely winner.  The best shot for Ortega will be if Lester Pearce wins the primary - he's so extreme that the "anybody but Pearce" vote will be huge.  In addition, Ortega is a known quantity among Scottsdale voters as a former member of the Scottsdale City Council.  Scottsdale Republicans are very conservative, but they are Chamber of Commerce Republicans, not burner Republicans (you know, witches, books, crosses, or whatever else is handy).  A pro-business Democrat will have a chance there, especially against someone from the Pearce camp.

In SD3, Democrat Lilia Alvarez will take on Republican incumbent Andy Kunasek.  Another uphill battle for the Democratic candidate, but she's smart and energetic and the hill isn't quite so steep as in SD2.  Not guaranteeing an upset here, but if there is going to be one in the MCBOS races, it will be here.

In SD4, incumbent Republican Max Wilson is facing two challengers in the primary - former legislator Jean McGrath and Richard Hensley, a real estate agent.  No Democrat filed to run in this district.

In SD5, incumbent Democrat Mary Rose Wilcox was slated to face an Independent in November, but her opponent, Manuel Burboa, withdrew from the race.


Justice of the Peace/Constable races

These are going to be both more difficult and easier to write about -

More difficult, because I know next to nothing about most of the districts and the players in them.

Easier, because there are so few actual races.

The wide variation in number of voters in the various Justice Precincts is no mistake.  The districts' lines are designed to approximately equalize workloads, not numbers of residents or geographical areas.

Also, while there are 25, soon-to-be 26, Justice Precincts, only 10 are up for election this year.  The remainder, plus one of this year's precincts that is only electing someone to serve out the remainder of a term, will be up for election in 2014.

Voter reg numbers:

Justice Precincts	Republican	Democrats	Independents
White Tank	30563	20546	28928
Encanto	9748	15144	11139
San Marcos	49719	34308	46714
East Mesa	43907	22388	32221
Downtown	2831	8855	7939
Arcadia Biltmore	19925	20547	20022
Ironwood	1913	1411	1825
Manistee	24401	27326	28843
Maryvale	4561	12413	10852
North Mesa	25149	14228	19897
North Valley	45544	25207	34554
Dreamy Draw	30038	21272	23817
Moon Valley	17569	13927	15043
Arrowhead	55478	29830	37145
McDowell Mountain	77527	37277	54162
Highland	55282	27517	40658
South Mountain	9244	27652	21899
University Lakes	14617	14314	16727
Kyrene	28250	26478	29308
Agua Fria	5163	12027	12261
West Mesa	7300	8100	11095
West McDowell	3211	8893	7748
Hassayampa	44567	26420	37634
San Tan	44104	21002	35365
Desert Ridge	41807	19356	30903
Country Meadows	12758	20081	21022

Arcadia Biltmore -

- JP - Incumbent Democrat Steven Sarkis is facing Republican challenger Michael Corey Chan.  Sarkis is highly respected; Chan ran as a Democrat in the San Marcos (Chandler) Justice Precinct in 2010 and is rumored as being about to be bumped off of the ballot.  Even if Chan survives any challenges to his petitions, Sarkis should defeat him.

- Constable - Incumbent Democrat Carolyn Lane is facing Republican challenger Roger Pongratz.  Lane is respected for her professionalism (something that cannot be said about many of her constable colleagues), but I don't know much about Pongratz other than that he ran for JP in 2008 and lost.


Country Meadows -

- JP - A new Justice Precinct, there aren't any incumbents here yet.  Democrats Anna Huberman and Joel Grajeda and Republican David Iwanski are running here.

- Constable - Only Democrat Kenneth Sumner filed to run for this office.


Desert Ridge -

- JP - No Democrat filed here, so the race will be decided in a three-way Republican primary between incumbent Clancy Jayne, Bill Ponath, and Jeff Schapira. 

- Constable - Republican Cory Hazlett is completely unopposed.  Given that he submitted only 22 signatures more than the required minimum, somebody is probably kicking himself right now.  A razor-thin cushion like that is just begging for a challenge, but what would be the point?


Downtown -

- JP - (2 year term) Democrats Benny Arce and Jimmie Hernandez are running; no Republicans filed here.


Dreamy Draw -

- JP - Republican Frank Conti is completely unopposed.

- Constable - Republican Doug Middleton is completely unopposed.


Highland -

- JP - One of the most interesting races.  No Democrats filed here, but five Republicans - incumbent Dan Dodge, James Estrada, Steve Urie, William Jefferson, and Jeff Smith.  Don't know much about them except for Urie, who is currently a state legislator and owner of a property management company that operates apartments and other rental properties.  "Operate" includes things like "evicting".  Guess what kind of cases a JP hears?  Can you say "conflict of interest"?  Hope so, 'cuz it seems obvious that Urie can't.

- Constable - Republican Phil Freestone is completely unopposed.


Maryvale -

- JP - Right now, there is a Democratic primary (candidates Federico Fuentes and Andy Gastelum) with the winner scheduled to go on to face two Independents in the general election (Francisco Meneses Jr. and Yesenia Perez).  However, while Gastelum submitted nearly 1200 signatures, giving him a large cushion over the mimimum required (241),  the others submitted totals that barely exceeded that minimum.  One candidate submitted only seven more than the minimum.  Don't be surprised if one or more candidates are knocked off the ballot.  No Republicans filed here.

- Constable - Only Democrats Frank Canez and Rafael Ung filed for this race.


Moon Valley -

- JP - Only Republicans Rebecca MacBeth and Russ Willis filed here.

- Constable - Only Republican J. Richard Coplan filed here.


North Mesa -

- JP - Another interesting race.  This used to be Lester Pearce's seat until he resigned to run for the Board of Supervisors.  One interested candidate, Kyle Jones, was appointed to fill the vacancy.  However, he did *not* file to run for a full term.  Republicans Cecil Ash, Jess Romney, and David Lane filed to run here, as did Democratic attorney Jacie Cotterell.  Ash is the most well-known - he is a member of the current state legislature.

- Constable - Republicans Edward Homan and Ed Malles filed here.  No Democrats filed.


San Tan -

- JP - Republicans Sam Goodman and Larry Campbell filed here; no Democrats.

- Constable - Independent Darrel Luth and Republicans Steve Allen and Ted Titchenal are running here.


South Mountain -

- Constable - (2 year term) Democrats Lincoln Brevard Jr., Jimmie Munoz, and Tommy Sanchez filed here.

There are 31 Maricopa County races on the primary ballot; perhaps three will have somewhat competitive general election races, and a few more could see "miracle" upsets there, but 80% of the races in Maricopa County will be over once the primary results come in.

I know that the Republicans and the few Democrats in safe districts will scream, but it is time for the voters to establish an Independent Redistricting Commission for county races.  Allowing the county supervisors to pick their voters, instead of the voters picking their county supervisors has contributed, in large part, to Maricopa County having the most embarrassing county government in the country.

The county health board, community college district governing board, board of directors for the Central Arizona Project, and local school boards are non-partisan (in theory, anyway) and go directly to the November ballot.  Their sigs aren't due for a few more weeks.